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Ahead Of Google Earnings, A Look At Options And Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With everyone's eyes glued to Google earnings after the close, below is a representation of the most active options classes today: the top 3 contracts traded were all near-term (Friday expiration) calls with 550, 540 and 560 strikes. It is not immediately known if investors are setting themselves up bullishly (buying calls) or bearishly (selling calls), although with the price of the entire top 10 complex down, except for the Oct 530 puts, it does appear that bearishness may be dominant. Whether or not the option action is a material factor for Google's underperformance is also not clear.

Keep in mind, in terms of a successful report, investors will be looking for (mean consensus estimate) revenue of $4,248 million and EPS of $5.431 for Q3, a 33.77% increase over Q3 2008. However, what is notable is that over the past 10 quarters, Google has never surprised to the upside based on consensus EPS: maybe the executive committee can take some tips from Steve Jobs on how to manage expectations.

 

 

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Thu, 10/15/2009 - 15:33 | 100059 TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

Canada central bank threatenes QE to protect the loonie

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/10/nyt-anxiety-in-canada-over-near-...

 

The race to the bottom in fiat currencies takes a new turn

 

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 15:39 | 100063 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Pig pile. I'm in.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 15:40 | 100064 Michael
Michael's picture

Americans are going to learn to live without credit cards. Americans will adapt.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 15:43 | 100069 phaesed
phaesed's picture

But then what will be in my wallet?

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 15:58 | 100089 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Good old green backs, that's what'll be in your wallet.

Good as gold I tell ya. Best thing since sliced bread for buying them there porno magazines so the wife don't see em on the credit card bill, dang it.

Learned that one the hard way. Yes sir, I sure did.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 17:00 | 100186 Michael
Michael's picture

Prepaid debit cards will be used for Internet purchases.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 15:51 | 100082 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Dollar bills to be used for emergency toilet paper?

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 16:12 | 100115 ro0t
ro0t's picture

Good thing you clarified that for me i was going to eat mine.  WOW that would be a mistake.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 15:53 | 100088 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

unfortunately, most people not glued to google.

but rather the 6 year old flying boy (not so much anymore), whose genius parents are graduates of a reality tv show called "wife swap" (apparently on the disney channel so title may be misleading as to exact nature of the show).

 

 

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 15:56 | 100093 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

ESPN had video this morning of a 9 year old hockey playing boy with a behind the back twirling spin-move goal.

Yup, that's the ticket. 

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 16:46 | 100163 Zro
Zro's picture

Good beat. What next?

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 17:36 | 100225 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

You won't see much comment here on the beat, it doesn't comport to people's views on the economy.

The company did well, but it seems to me like a crappy stock to invest in, as a shareholder you probably will never see a dime other than selling to a greater fool.  this company is like CSCO, it exists to enrich employees, not shareholders.  You could live for another 40 years and you won't see a dime in dividends out of it.  no thanks.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 18:23 | 100279 Billy Bob
Billy Bob's picture

any body tell me which chart service is represented above?

 

 

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 18:24 | 100280 Billy Bob
Billy Bob's picture

any body tell me which chart service is represented above?

 

 

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 18:27 | 100291 Billy Bob
Billy Bob's picture

any body tell me which chart service is represented above?

 

 

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 18:50 | 100310 Billy Bob
Billy Bob's picture

any body tell me which chart service is represented above?

 

 

Fri, 10/16/2009 - 09:18 | 100710 Billy Bob
Billy Bob's picture

any body tell me which chart service is represented above?

 

 

Fri, 10/16/2009 - 09:19 | 100711 Billy Bob
Billy Bob's picture

any body tell me which chart service is represented above?

 

 

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 17:09 | 100199 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Google missing their target would be HUGE NEWS - because that would spell doom for advertising in general. If they hit or beat - eh, so what?

Point is, right now in the online world, there is Google and nobody else. Every advertiser is looking for 2 things:
Reach (which Google has in spades over everyone)
Low transaction cost (which Google optimizes beyond belief)

Nobody else can do what they do as well as they do it. So most ad dollars are headed their way. It's just going to happen, sadly.

Thus, if they beat expectations, that's to be expected. In a down economy, Google will be the absolute best value.

If they miss....YIKES! Advertising will be in a tailspin, because it means everyone (and I do mean EVERYONE) else is going to miss big time on the revenue side.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 17:13 | 100203 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

easy to determine if bullish or bearish buys - check out the option charts with bid and ask lines. if the majority of sales were at bid...bearish intent. if most at ask...bullish intent.

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 19:40 | 100372 Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

It costs practically NOTHING for an SLP to write BEAR TRAPS.  Call it advertising cost.

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