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Ahead Of A Probable Blowout NFP Report, Goldman Sees A Payroll Drop Of 25,000
Goldman's thoughts ahead of the NFP report to be announced in 10 minutes:
8:30: Employment report for Dec…will payrolls rise or fall? GS: -25k, median forecast (of 76): flat, ranging from -100k to +85k; last -11k. Economists are evenly divided on this question as last month’s near stabilization and ongoing improvement in claims for unemployment insurance has prompted half of the forecasters to predict an increase for December. In our case, we think the drop in continuing claims, which has historically been helpful in forecasting payroll changes, should be heavily discounted as the sharp rise in workers receiving extended benefits indicates that much of this decline is simply the expiration of eligibility for the regular 26-week program
Rumor circulating of an Obama press conference after the NFP, which would only be the case if NFP (actual and/or revised) is a "seasonally irrelevant" blowout. We feel Goldman will be well below the actual.
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The report, its not as rediculious as I thought, but it is still not even close to reality. Look at the revisions for NOV... we Had Postive ahahhahaaha
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
Yeah, but October was revised to -127k from -112k.
And why do you think they lower previous Months?? Because they know no one cares about stuff in the past. Alot of people have 1 track mind in that aspect.
They must have been worried about next week's treasury auctions.
Obama press conference:President Barack Obama on Friday is making his promised hard pivot to jobs, following up the morning’s release of December unemployment figures with an East Room announcement at 2:40 p.m. ET about stimulus dollars going to clean-tech jobs.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31265.html
President Obama pivots to jobs as key theme
East Room announcement at 2:40 p.m. ET about stimulus dollars going to clean-tech jobs.
Obama's just paying off his union buddies. So far Obama's stimulus has been nothing but a slush fund. Hilary's pollster got 6m in stimulus and it goes on and on and on.............. Extended unemployment for the little people. Just poverty by default. If Obama cared even a little bit about Jobs he would not have wasted a whole year on communist health care. And mark my words he will waste the rest of this year on cap and trade. Him and his buddies are the originators of the Chicago Climate Exchange.
This is the truth but the masses are too stupid to see it.
You need to see the home of a Democrap Lobbyist I know who was in a senior position in Clitton's White House.
No recession there. None. At all. Banner years.
Anyone "connected" is living the good life. The difference between us and Brazil is that we have fatter UE bennies to keep people placated, but placated they are.
They've got everyone convinced it was NINJAs' faults what happened, that we're just "unmotivated" which is why we're broke and jobless, while their kids prance around like they're geniuses to have inherited all that money.
I figured out how things worked when I was in a senior partner's office temping as a hardware tech fresh out of law school studying for the bar and the partner told me about how his friend, the Atty General of Arizona had offered the partner's son a job. Wasn't asked, just basically, when he's ready to start work, send him out here. I couldn't get people like that to answer a phone call and here they come offering a connected kid a job.
Nepotism is everywhere. Dynastic wealth is an anathema to America
Yes down 85,000 but CNBC focused on the 15,000 upward revision from last month.
It is an 85,000 job loss it appears
"Rumor circulating of an Obama press conference after the NFP, which would only be the case if NFP (actual and/or revised) is a "seasonally irrelevant" blowout. We feel Goldman will be well below the actual."
Goldman Sacs: 3rd quarter GDP will be 2.2%
Government: 3rd Quarter GDP is 3.5%, Yay!!!!
Everyone else: Haha, GS was WAY the fuck off.
a little later
Government: 3rd Quarter GDP was revised down to 2.9%
a little later
Gvoernemnt: 3rd Quarter GDP was revised down to 2.2%
Everyone else: Haha, GS is way off on the employment numbers.
a little later . . .
I have heard those Green Tech jobs the govt is putting funds into is a big waste of taxpayer money and each job costs some crazy amount when it is added up.
gotta love it..of course goldman got the direction right. they couldnt be too obvious and nail it within a few k again..
While this site may be proven right eventually with its long-term predictions of an economic collapse, it is uncanny how regularly the short-term "predictions" of this site are just ash-backwards wrong (in this case the blow-out jobs number).
No ones has to put a spin on anything, the numbers reported are enough
They called your bluff TD and may be your banging finally worked. The GS reverse,double reverse and triplle reverse at its best. Notice that there were no movement whatsoever in the futures before the report(unlike last yearr where there were constantly up movement before better than normal results). I guess your showing of number manipulation is putting pressure on the govies to come up with numbers that are closer to reality(lol)
Lloyd, please call me today. I have a project for you.
God, after you get off the line with Lloyd is there anything you would like to pass on to the rest of humanity? Or should we just wait for Lloyd's instructions?