Ahead Of A Probable Blowout NFP Report, Goldman Sees A Payroll Drop Of 25,000
Goldman's thoughts ahead of the NFP report to be announced in 10 minutes:
8:30: Employment report for Dec…will payrolls rise or fall? GS: -25k, median forecast (of 76): flat, ranging from -100k to +85k; last -11k. Economists are evenly divided on this question as last month’s near stabilization and ongoing improvement in claims for unemployment insurance has prompted half of the forecasters to predict an increase for December. In our case, we think the drop in continuing claims, which has historically been helpful in forecasting payroll changes, should be heavily discounted as the sharp rise in workers receiving extended benefits indicates that much of this decline is simply the expiration of eligibility for the regular 26-week program
Rumor circulating of an Obama press conference after the NFP, which would only be the case if NFP (actual and/or revised) is a "seasonally irrelevant" blowout. We feel Goldman will be well below the actual.