Ahead Of Tomorrow's Clutch Day For Greece, The EUR, And The Whole Developed World, Here Is SocGen With The Playbill

Tyler Durden's picture

A week ago we suggested that the second Greek "bailout" was Dead on Arrival. Gradually, the market is starting to realize just that, as schisms are appearing not just between the core and the periphery, but between the two main players: Germany and the ECB, both of which have realized Plan B is doomed to failure. Late in the day, we got another confirmation from the Luxembourg finance minister who just did what the CFTC is now doing with Frank-Dodd implementation - announce indefinitely delays until some miraculous machine from god appears. Well, no machine is coming now or any time in the future. So ahead of tomorrow's day which is shaping up to be critical for Greece, the Eurozone and potentially the entire developed world, here is SocGen's summary take down of all of today's events in preparation for tomorrow.

Greek rescue delayed until July

So we are no further forward. Tuesday’s emergency Eurogroup meeting proved to be inconclusive after euro area finance ministers struggled to bridge the gap between the ECB’s insistence that any private sector involvement must be entirely voluntary and German’s desire to press bondholders to go beyond a Vienna style agreement. While finance ministers going into the meeting had warned that there would be no decision at Tuesday’s meeting, the Eurogroup had been expected to produce a statement reaffirming the ministers’ commitment to agree a new aid package. However, diplomats said there was not enough consensus even for that, with press reports suggesting the Eurogroup was affectively split. As a result, Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden said an agreement on a second bailout for Greece may be delayed until July. Equally, in an indication that the Eurogroup would wait for the Greek Parliament to pass Greece’s Medium Term Fiscal Strategy (which is unlikely to be voted on until the first week of July) he said “And only if we can assure that all elements of the euro zone, including Greece, can get the necessary aid, we will also help ourselves and that way ensure stability and solidarity.”

“You can’t leave the profits with the banks and make the taxpayers shoulder the losses,” Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter told reporters in Brussels today before the meeting. “Ministers have different positions,” she said. “We’ll put them on the table and look at where the compromise lies.” Similarly Finnish Prime Ministerdesignate Jyrki Katainen argued that “Some sort of private sector involvement is crucial in this very moment,” but stressed that any proposal must be “responsible.” “We are in favour of trying to find a responsible solution with private-sector involvement where possible.” Similarly, Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders called on banks, insurance companies and others to pledge to maintain their exposure to Greek debt and said the financial sector had a strong interest in a successful conclusion to Greece’s  problems. But he said it made “no sense” for finance ministers to draw up a plan that works “against what the European Central Bank wants.” Mr. Reynders also suggested that the total aid package was likely to be around €80bn with the finance ministers looking to raise about €25bn from private sector involvement. These figures would be in line with press reports of the provision agreement reached at the deputy finance ministers meeting in Vienna.

More positively, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said there would be no final decision on a plan on Tuesday but that his government “is prepared” to offer further help to Greece. “We will decide on additional measures in coming weeks to back up the measures agreed by the Greek cabinet to reduce their deficit. The priority is improving Greece's capacity to grow,” he said.  Greece also managed to undertake a successful auction of 6-month T-bills which potentially indicates that there is still an appetite to roll at least a proportion of Greek debt.

The ECB view meanwhile was reinforced in the European Parliament by Mario Draghi, who is expected to succeed ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet in October. Mr. Draghi said there must be no element of compulsion in any Greek plan. But he said a proposal drawn up along the lines of the Vienna Initiative, which involved creditors voluntarily extending debt  maturities for several Eastern European governments during the financial crisis, could meet the ECB's criteria. “The Vienna initiative looks to me to be entirely voluntary,” Mr. Draghi told lawmakers in Brussels at his confirmation hearing for the ECB
presidency today. “The ECB is not in favour of restructuring and haircuts” and it “excludes all concepts that are not purely voluntary,” Draghi said. He added that the “cost of a default would exceed the benefits” and wouldn’t “address the root causes of the crisis.” So the standoff continues. Finance ministers meet again on Sunday for another unscheduled Eurogroup meeting.

Looking ahead, it is not obvious where we go from here. There are still the makings of a new rescue package for Greece on the table but the proof of the pudding will be in the detail. German’s Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter indicated earlier in the day that Germany wouldn’t go against the advice of the ECB which had raised the prospects of a deal at Tuesday’s meeting. Increasingly however the real challenge is the situation on the ground in Greece. Already in the first five months of the year tax revenues are behind target while public spending is over budget. With Greek unions calling for another general strike in Greece today, it would be staggeringly embarrassing for European Leaders to agree a new package for Greece later this month, only to have to concede that Greece needs even more money later in the year if Greek slips further behind on its programme targets. Hence, while the politicians argue, time may be beginning to slip away from them.

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Timmay's picture

“You can’t leave the profits with the banks and make the taxpayers shoulder the losses,”

 

 

What color is the sky in your world??

tom a taxpayer's picture

 

Waiting for Godot: Greece, ECB, Europe, And The Whole Developed World.

"Will night never come? All three look at the sky." 

Samuel Beckett

 

The Profit Prophet's picture

Greek Reprofiling bitche.....(never mind)

Cdad's picture

That's a Soft Reprofiling...like a feather pillow, or a breeze through the veranda, like melting chocolate or maybe like an angora sweater....

buzzsaw99's picture

Mr. Draghi said there must be no element of compulsion in any Greek plan.

 

MYASS! Like they didn't try to coerce all the greek policians? or iceland? or Ireland? Volunatary? That's laughable. Greek balls in vise time.

StychoKiller's picture

In the meantime, the Greek populace is protesting because the biscuit wheels are coming off the gravy train.  Sooner or later, Greeks better get back to work -- no more gravy train!

Akrunner907's picture

"Looking ahead, it is not obvious where we go from here?" Well, the paradox is that we are at a point
where any solution you choose will lead to the same outcome: Global economic default that will not affect
all in the same way, but they will be affected. It is like a tornado, you will
see a photo of a large swath of destruction caused by a tornado, but there will
be some houses that will be left untouched. That is what is looming for our
future.

HumbleServant's picture

It's "God", not "god".  I would think that everyone on here would be acutely aware of the fact that He is the only hope we've got because Ben and his merry band of banksters have the hammer down on sending the entire world financial system straight to fiat hell.

Jasper M's picture

Okay, I'll feed the troll . . . 

No, he got it right, it's "god", not "God", as relying on the fairly tales of bronze age desert savages to get you out of this is pretty much the same as relying on the fairy tales of Ivory League Keynsians.

To paraphrase the lead in "The Keep" (describing nazis and vampires), 

'The are no better. They are no worse. They are The SAME!'

HumbleServant's picture

"A man who was merely a man and said the sort of things Jesus said would not be a great moral teacher. He would either be a lunatic - on the level with a man who says he is a poached egg - or he would be the devil of hell. You must take your choice. Either this was, and is, the Son of God, or else a madman or something worse. You can shut Him up for a fool or you can fall at His feet and call Him Lord and God. But let us not come with any patronizing nonsense about His being a great human teacher. He has not left that open to us."

dearth vader's picture

Wouldn't it be more rational, if creditors struck a deal with the Greek government themselves, instead of leaving the matter to be solved by political morons? I'm sure some savvy investment banker will gladly oblige to lead the haggling, Goldman Sachs?

ThisIsBob's picture

Exactly to whom does Greece owe money and how much?  Possibly might not care if they get paid, depending upon who they are and how they got that way.

 

For instance, if there are any New York (or other) "investmemnt banks" on the list, well TS, I say.

Cdad's picture

Now now Bob, is that any way to talk to your JP Morgue overlord?  I think not.  

Now get on your knees and beg for Netflix shares with 80 years worth of earnings "priced in."

Conrad Murray's picture

Resurrect the Greek Fire and let the banks take that on deposit.

buzzsaw99's picture

making inflammatory comments on zh about the bankstas will put you on the naughty list.

knukles's picture

Oh, me, me, me, me, me. 
I wanna be on the naughty list.
Timmah's, Bawnie's or Weiner's, I don't care.
Can I choose? Can I? Can I? Can I?
I wanna be Spartacus.
Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze

StychoKiller's picture

Well knukles, do you like gladiator movies?  :>D

onarga74's picture

Could we do like a Salvation Army bucket for Greece? A penny for every iWhatever sold? Mow Bernokios lawn?  Let's put our bailout helmets on and git er done.

Mr.Kowalski's picture

Lets all get real-- another deal will be completed, the can successfully kicked. The only thing that will stop the banksters from looting Greece will be when the people of Greece re-act the storming of the Bastille. I look for it by the end of next year. 

The Fonz's picture

No, actually the can was SECRETLY kicked ahead of time. The overseas banks now have the cash to stand up to the collapse of the PIIGS and the US gave them that in return for the destruction of the ECB, and the guarantee to buy bonds cheap cheap FOREVER.  That should work... BRILLIANT!

Jack Mehoff's picture

At this point I am like, fuck it, if they wanna restructure, bail out and keep the charade going, let them. It will only worsen the problem and when it finally comes crashing down only then are we going to have a real shot to change things.

swissinv's picture

IMO this is all noise, I don't expect to EUR to fail because of a defaulting Greece (ok nobody really knows how far that can go) but if the USD does then bye bye everything incl. EUR

putbuyer's picture

Just let me know where the collapse party will be held. NYC is best as I'm only 2 and a half hours away.

Cdad's picture

Well, for the party, sure, that is a great location.  But once the Zombie Apocalypse begins, I think you might want to consider relocation.

 

PY-129-20's picture

Zombie Apocalypse, cdad? How do you know? It was meant to be a secret!

 

tom a taxpayer's picture

Perhaps the collapse party will be at NYC Sofitel, DSK's hotel.

Saxxon's picture

PMs holding up fine A/H.

ZeroPower's picture

Now switch from your tick by tick candle view to an hourly...

serotonindumptruck's picture

Very much OT, but something major is going down at Fukushima.

At about 2:20 into the video, it starts getting serious.

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/06/fukushima-i-nuke-plant-live-camera.html

swissinv's picture

damn it more bad news... just make a booklet out of ZH and sell it as Alfred Hitchcock

knukles's picture

Ah, just the hyper-critical core mass meeting the water table.  Nothing to worry about.  Already forecast to happen (by me) so nothing new.  Everybody, go back to Dancing With the 5 Legged Stars and Japanese Idle.

The Fonz's picture

damn. The way that went down looks a lot like what I imagine the market will look like when it cracks. Months of nothing... then BOOM.

StychoKiller's picture

At the bare minimum, whichever reactor that is just bathed the area with radioactive steam :>(

sangell's picture

Greece has no future. Its broke and it will be even more broke tomorrow. Its economy is moribund and those with money or sense are not going to stick around for decades to pay off their government's loans. They'll move! That Schengen agreement is the debtor populations escape hatch.

Eireann go Brach's picture

They should consult Obama as he will have all the right answers..

breezer1's picture

he'll make it ' perfectly clear '.

ElvisDog's picture

And he'll use the word "folks" a lot. He likes that word.

americanspirit's picture

Interesting to watch the various forms of Euro-racism playing out here, masked in polite language of course - for the time being.

knukles's picture

You mean comments like; "Those cocksuckers oughta quit their fucking whining and man up the Socialist shitstorm credit bill timing out they've built for their faggot-ass-selves over the past half century of free riding on good old God Fearing Americun ingenuity, hard work, Jesus snake tents, freedom and democracy for the world being built upon the innocent spolled blood of underage patriot children not even old enough to take a drink."

I agree.
Mysogonistic.  Xenophobic.  But then again, history don't apply to Americuah.

disabledvet's picture

And in more important news "Derek Jeter declares injury time out on his road to three thousand hits."  All smiles in Beantown.

Itsalie's picture

Summer is around the corner, 4 to 6 weeks of "vacances" under the sun beckon - does anyone seriously think these old men and women will sacrifice their annual holidays to salvage a messy Greek involuntary default? Already the impatient Euro is pricing in another euphoric kick-the-can down bailout - so we will re-visit this in 1Q 2012 : )

 

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Can't help but think all this will lead to a new world war.

onarga74's picture

The Greeks arent stupid.  The next meeting entails an Ouzo shooter duel between them and the ECB.  The aftermath will be Germany facing default and and explaining the naked pictures of Angela climbling the Parthenon

ZeroPower's picture

 Greece also managed to undertake a successful auction of 6-month T-bills which potentially indicates that there is still an appetite to roll at least a proportion of Greek debt.

 

EUR1.625Bn went out at 4.96% (up 8bp from last)... B2C @ 2.58