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Ahead Of Tomorrow's Clutch Day For Greece, The EUR, And The Whole Developed World, Here Is SocGen With The Playbill

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A week ago we suggested that the second Greek "bailout" was Dead on Arrival. Gradually, the market is starting to realize just that, as schisms are appearing not just between the core and the periphery, but between the two main players: Germany and the ECB, both of which have realized Plan B is doomed to failure. Late in the day, we got another confirmation from the Luxembourg finance minister who just did what the CFTC is now doing with Frank-Dodd implementation - announce indefinitely delays until some miraculous machine from god appears. Well, no machine is coming now or any time in the future. So ahead of tomorrow's day which is shaping up to be critical for Greece, the Eurozone and potentially the entire developed world, here is SocGen's summary take down of all of today's events in preparation for tomorrow.

Greek rescue delayed until July

So we are no further forward. Tuesday’s emergency Eurogroup meeting proved to be inconclusive after euro area finance ministers struggled to bridge the gap between the ECB’s insistence that any private sector involvement must be entirely voluntary and German’s desire to press bondholders to go beyond a Vienna style agreement. While finance ministers going into the meeting had warned that there would be no decision at Tuesday’s meeting, the Eurogroup had been expected to produce a statement reaffirming the ministers’ commitment to agree a new aid package. However, diplomats said there was not enough consensus even for that, with press reports suggesting the Eurogroup was affectively split. As a result, Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden said an agreement on a second bailout for Greece may be delayed until July. Equally, in an indication that the Eurogroup would wait for the Greek Parliament to pass Greece’s Medium Term Fiscal Strategy (which is unlikely to be voted on until the first week of July) he said “And only if we can assure that all elements of the euro zone, including Greece, can get the necessary aid, we will also help ourselves and that way ensure stability and solidarity.”

“You can’t leave the profits with the banks and make the taxpayers shoulder the losses,” Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter told reporters in Brussels today before the meeting. “Ministers have different positions,” she said. “We’ll put them on the table and look at where the compromise lies.” Similarly Finnish Prime Ministerdesignate Jyrki Katainen argued that “Some sort of private sector involvement is crucial in this very moment,” but stressed that any proposal must be “responsible.” “We are in favour of trying to find a responsible solution with private-sector involvement where possible.” Similarly, Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders called on banks, insurance companies and others to pledge to maintain their exposure to Greek debt and said the financial sector had a strong interest in a successful conclusion to Greece’s  problems. But he said it made “no sense” for finance ministers to draw up a plan that works “against what the European Central Bank wants.” Mr. Reynders also suggested that the total aid package was likely to be around €80bn with the finance ministers looking to raise about €25bn from private sector involvement. These figures would be in line with press reports of the provision agreement reached at the deputy finance ministers meeting in Vienna.

More positively, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said there would be no final decision on a plan on Tuesday but that his government “is prepared” to offer further help to Greece. “We will decide on additional measures in coming weeks to back up the measures agreed by the Greek cabinet to reduce their deficit. The priority is improving Greece's capacity to grow,” he said.  Greece also managed to undertake a successful auction of 6-month T-bills which potentially indicates that there is still an appetite to roll at least a proportion of Greek debt.

The ECB view meanwhile was reinforced in the European Parliament by Mario Draghi, who is expected to succeed ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet in October. Mr. Draghi said there must be no element of compulsion in any Greek plan. But he said a proposal drawn up along the lines of the Vienna Initiative, which involved creditors voluntarily extending debt  maturities for several Eastern European governments during the financial crisis, could meet the ECB's criteria. “The Vienna initiative looks to me to be entirely voluntary,” Mr. Draghi told lawmakers in Brussels at his confirmation hearing for the ECB
presidency today. “The ECB is not in favour of restructuring and haircuts” and it “excludes all concepts that are not purely voluntary,” Draghi said. He added that the “cost of a default would exceed the benefits” and wouldn’t “address the root causes of the crisis.” So the standoff continues. Finance ministers meet again on Sunday for another unscheduled Eurogroup meeting.

Looking ahead, it is not obvious where we go from here. There are still the makings of a new rescue package for Greece on the table but the proof of the pudding will be in the detail. German’s Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter indicated earlier in the day that Germany wouldn’t go against the advice of the ECB which had raised the prospects of a deal at Tuesday’s meeting. Increasingly however the real challenge is the situation on the ground in Greece. Already in the first five months of the year tax revenues are behind target while public spending is over budget. With Greek unions calling for another general strike in Greece today, it would be staggeringly embarrassing for European Leaders to agree a new package for Greece later this month, only to have to concede that Greece needs even more money later in the year if Greek slips further behind on its programme targets. Hence, while the politicians argue, time may be beginning to slip away from them.

 

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Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:22 | 1369181 Timmay
Timmay's picture

“You can’t leave the profits with the banks and make the taxpayers shoulder the losses,”

 

 

What color is the sky in your world??

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:13 | 1369272 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

 

Waiting for Godot: Greece, ECB, Europe, And The Whole Developed World.

"Will night never come? All three look at the sky." 

Samuel Beckett

 

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:40 | 1369345 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Turd's new site is finally up

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 02:04 | 1370102 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

http://bible.cc/revelation/16-9.htm

There is no separation from the hero's with the gold and men of old, men of renown, they are all thieves. One is just the Pimp, the other is just a drunken pimp'd out prison whore, riding the New World Order Weiner Beast devouring the Treasure of the Laborer of the Harvest. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cdFuMgMkBM

MRE's, Toilet Paper, Boots, Warm Jackets and Sunblock etc... Bitchez. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mk5sRmroG8s

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/controlled-power-cuts-likely-as-sun-storm-threatens-national-grid-2296748.html

http://earthchangesmedia.com/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_yh22mc30o&feature=related

 

 

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:25 | 1369183 The Profit Prophet
The Profit Prophet's picture

Greek Reprofiling bitche.....(never mind)

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:52 | 1369239 Cdad
Cdad's picture

That's a Soft Reprofiling...like a feather pillow, or a breeze through the veranda, like melting chocolate or maybe like an angora sweater....

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:31 | 1369186 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Mr. Draghi said there must be no element of compulsion in any Greek plan.

 

MYASS! Like they didn't try to coerce all the greek policians? or iceland? or Ireland? Volunatary? That's laughable. Greek balls in vise time.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 05:07 | 1370225 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

In the meantime, the Greek populace is protesting because the biscuit wheels are coming off the gravy train.  Sooner or later, Greeks better get back to work -- no more gravy train!

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 20:51 | 1369188 Akrunner907
Akrunner907's picture

"Looking ahead, it is not obvious where we go from here?" Well, the paradox is that we are at a point
where any solution you choose will lead to the same outcome: Global economic default that will not affect
all in the same way, but they will be affected. It is like a tornado, you will
see a photo of a large swath of destruction caused by a tornado, but there will
be some houses that will be left untouched. That is what is looming for our
future.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:33 | 1369195 HumbleServant
HumbleServant's picture

It's "God", not "god".  I would think that everyone on here would be acutely aware of the fact that He is the only hope we've got because Ben and his merry band of banksters have the hammer down on sending the entire world financial system straight to fiat hell.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:42 | 1369346 CrankItTo11
CrankItTo11's picture

+7

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 21:57 | 1369656 Jasper M
Jasper M's picture

Okay, I'll feed the troll . . . 

No, he got it right, it's "god", not "God", as relying on the fairly tales of bronze age desert savages to get you out of this is pretty much the same as relying on the fairy tales of Ivory League Keynsians.

To paraphrase the lead in "The Keep" (describing nazis and vampires), 

'The are no better. They are no worse. They are The SAME!'

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 23:16 | 1369868 HumbleServant
HumbleServant's picture

"A man who was merely a man and said the sort of things Jesus said would not be a great moral teacher. He would either be a lunatic - on the level with a man who says he is a poached egg - or he would be the devil of hell. You must take your choice. Either this was, and is, the Son of God, or else a madman or something worse. You can shut Him up for a fool or you can fall at His feet and call Him Lord and God. But let us not come with any patronizing nonsense about His being a great human teacher. He has not left that open to us."

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:33 | 1369196 dearth vader
dearth vader's picture

Wouldn't it be more rational, if creditors struck a deal with the Greek government themselves, instead of leaving the matter to be solved by political morons? I'm sure some savvy investment banker will gladly oblige to lead the haggling, Goldman Sachs?

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:34 | 1369198 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Exactly to whom does Greece owe money and how much?  Possibly might not care if they get paid, depending upon who they are and how they got that way.

 

For instance, if there are any New York (or other) "investmemnt banks" on the list, well TS, I say.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:55 | 1369244 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Now now Bob, is that any way to talk to your JP Morgue overlord?  I think not.  

Now get on your knees and beg for Netflix shares with 80 years worth of earnings "priced in."

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:32 | 1369323 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Resurrect the Greek Fire and let the banks take that on deposit.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:50 | 1369352 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

making inflammatory comments on zh about the bankstas will put you on the naughty list.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 20:03 | 1369369 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh, me, me, me, me, me. 
I wanna be on the naughty list.
Timmah's, Bawnie's or Weiner's, I don't care.
Can I choose? Can I? Can I? Can I?
I wanna be Spartacus.
Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 05:06 | 1370227 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Well knukles, do you like gladiator movies?  :>D

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 21:17 | 1369549 onarga74
onarga74's picture

Could we do like a Salvation Army bucket for Greece? A penny for every iWhatever sold? Mow Bernokios lawn?  Let's put our bailout helmets on and git er done.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:48 | 1369226 Mr.Kowalski
Mr.Kowalski's picture

Lets all get real-- another deal will be completed, the can successfully kicked. The only thing that will stop the banksters from looting Greece will be when the people of Greece re-act the storming of the Bastille. I look for it by the end of next year. 

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 20:44 | 1369471 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

No, actually the can was SECRETLY kicked ahead of time. The overseas banks now have the cash to stand up to the collapse of the PIIGS and the US gave them that in return for the destruction of the ECB, and the guarantee to buy bonds cheap cheap FOREVER.  That should work... BRILLIANT!

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:48 | 1369228 Jack Mehoff
Jack Mehoff's picture

At this point I am like, fuck it, if they wanna restructure, bail out and keep the charade going, let them. It will only worsen the problem and when it finally comes crashing down only then are we going to have a real shot to change things.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:46 | 1369232 swissinv
swissinv's picture

IMO this is all noise, I don't expect to EUR to fail because of a defaulting Greece (ok nobody really knows how far that can go) but if the USD does then bye bye everything incl. EUR

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:50 | 1369241 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

Just let me know where the collapse party will be held. NYC is best as I'm only 2 and a half hours away.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:56 | 1369247 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Well, for the party, sure, that is a great location.  But once the Zombie Apocalypse begins, I think you might want to consider relocation.

 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 04:35 | 1370215 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

Zombie Apocalypse, cdad? How do you know? It was meant to be a secret!

 

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:38 | 1369339 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Perhaps the collapse party will be at NYC Sofitel, DSK's hotel.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:52 | 1369341 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Or, maybe Dieter will host the collapse party.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHZR9SA5pOg

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:58 | 1369257 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

PMs holding up fine A/H.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:22 | 1369311 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Now switch from your tick by tick candle view to an hourly...

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:00 | 1369265 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Very much OT, but something major is going down at Fukushima.

At about 2:20 into the video, it starts getting serious.

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/06/fukushima-i-nuke-plant-live-camera.html

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:05 | 1369273 swissinv
swissinv's picture

damn it more bad news... just make a booklet out of ZH and sell it as Alfred Hitchcock

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 20:09 | 1369398 knukles
knukles's picture

Ah, just the hyper-critical core mass meeting the water table.  Nothing to worry about.  Already forecast to happen (by me) so nothing new.  Everybody, go back to Dancing With the 5 Legged Stars and Japanese Idle.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 20:53 | 1369493 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

damn. The way that went down looks a lot like what I imagine the market will look like when it cracks. Months of nothing... then BOOM.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 05:12 | 1370233 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

At the bare minimum, whichever reactor that is just bathed the area with radioactive steam :>(

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 18:59 | 1369270 sangell
sangell's picture

Greece has no future. Its broke and it will be even more broke tomorrow. Its economy is moribund and those with money or sense are not going to stick around for decades to pay off their government's loans. They'll move! That Schengen agreement is the debtor populations escape hatch.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:05 | 1369282 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

They should consult Obama as he will have all the right answers..

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:43 | 1369342 breezer1
breezer1's picture

he'll make it ' perfectly clear '.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 01:20 | 1370047 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

And he'll use the word "folks" a lot. He likes that word.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:07 | 1369283 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Interesting to watch the various forms of Euro-racism playing out here, masked in polite language of course - for the time being.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 20:17 | 1369413 knukles
knukles's picture

You mean comments like; "Those cocksuckers oughta quit their fucking whining and man up the Socialist shitstorm credit bill timing out they've built for their faggot-ass-selves over the past half century of free riding on good old God Fearing Americun ingenuity, hard work, Jesus snake tents, freedom and democracy for the world being built upon the innocent spolled blood of underage patriot children not even old enough to take a drink."

I agree.
Mysogonistic.  Xenophobic.  But then again, history don't apply to Americuah.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:09 | 1369285 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

And in more important news "Derek Jeter declares injury time out on his road to three thousand hits."  All smiles in Beantown.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:20 | 1369296 Itsalie
Itsalie's picture

Summer is around the corner, 4 to 6 weeks of "vacances" under the sun beckon - does anyone seriously think these old men and women will sacrifice their annual holidays to salvage a messy Greek involuntary default? Already the impatient Euro is pricing in another euphoric kick-the-can down bailout - so we will re-visit this in 1Q 2012 : )

 

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:19 | 1369301 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Can't help but think all this will lead to a new world war.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 20:24 | 1369420 onarga74
onarga74's picture

The Greeks arent stupid.  The next meeting entails an Ouzo shooter duel between them and the ECB.  The aftermath will be Germany facing default and and explaining the naked pictures of Angela climbling the Parthenon

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:25 | 1369314 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

 Greece also managed to undertake a successful auction of 6-month T-bills which potentially indicates that there is still an appetite to roll at least a proportion of Greek debt.

 

EUR1.625Bn went out at 4.96% (up 8bp from last)... B2C @ 2.58

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:39 | 1369340 cheesewizz
cheesewizz's picture

Nice call on the weekly BB pop, Lets see if we confirm the herd rush to the exit on a little bad news from the euro zone...

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:42 | 1369347 mynhair
mynhair's picture

TSA sez profiling is bad.  So, the second time is good?  So cornfused......

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 19:59 | 1369357 mynhair
mynhair's picture

"Greek Unions"

Country fail.

Unkke Sugar has left the building.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 20:09 | 1369397 centerline
centerline's picture

"(wait a minute, they are onto us.  Got to change it up).... QUICK, look at the monkey!"  {redirection fail}.

 

LOLOLOLOLOL

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 20:13 | 1369407 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

It doesn't matter what they say, if Greece votes no then it will show in the market. 

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 20:13 | 1369408 delivered
delivered's picture

WTF,

- Private participation, are you kidding (unless Greece's best assets are pledged as collateral). What private groups are going to step in and help unless something of real value is secured.

- No haircuts or restructuring. What is the ECB smoking or taking? Is this information coming out of Amsterdam? The market has already priced in the haircut so take it and get it over with.

- Not obvious where this goes. Only a politician could make this statement as if any business person left critical meetings on a restructuring plan with no ideas, they would be 86'd.

And the scariest thing of all, Greece is just the tip of the iceberg. These clowns can't even figure out a plan for a country with a relatively small GDP so when the snowball really starts to roll, pick-up steam, and gain size, I can't even imagine what's going to happen with Spain, Italy, the UK, and eventually, the US.

The only real advice and choice left is to bite the bullet, default, take the haircuts, and if needed, return Greece to a sovereign currency. Painful yes but necessary in order to resolve this mess once and for all.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 20:28 | 1369422 knukles
knukles's picture

Are there anything  "private" left in Greece?
Is it too late to get a good booking before the high season prices start?
Will anybody take stale Baklava and Ouzo as collateral?

Gotta admit, the best line so far by anybody from the EU is that nothing so far would; "address the root causes of the crisis.”

Definitely need to focus.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 21:23 | 1369560 zen0
zen0's picture

This is like the death scene in Swan Lake. So fucking die already. At least 9/11 was over in a few hours.

 

flap, flap, wander, wander, flap, squawk, crumple, die.

 

So do it.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 21:55 | 1369661 Jasper M
Jasper M's picture

You made me waf out woud!

+1!

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 21:53 | 1369635 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Is there really a deadline with Greece?

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 21:51 | 1369646 You Lie
You Lie's picture

War Games:  The computers name was the WOPR.    Greece is the WOPR and is about to discover....." Strange game,  the only way to win is not to play."

 

 

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 01:29 | 1370052 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Slightly off-topic, but I love the depiction of computers in "futuristic" movies made in the 80's and 90's. The WOPR was a big as a house and had cool flashing lights and stuff.

Wed, 06/15/2011 - 05:22 | 1370235 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

ALL cool computers have flashing lights (and lots of toggle switches -- Imsai 8080, for example):

http://www.frontiernet.net/~jimbot/allsparkproject.htm

 

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 22:05 | 1369682 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

I am guessing the Greek powers that be will continue to work on selling out the country to maintain their status and position in the current system. At the same time, they face the unknown and will start to position themselves as politicians who support an independent Greece to continue to feed at the trough.

I am sure they are all studying past transitions such as the USSR, when communists all became capitalists.  I wonder if old Soviet autobiographies are beginning to move up the book sales charts.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 22:25 | 1369734 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

Cdad i'm afraid im going to have to report you: JP Mourgue. I see the signs everywhere--see something, say something. It sounds like you may not like JP and when you use the word morgue that may have some type of intent. I just can't be sure. Sorry. But, why don't you like JP...they are doing God's work?

 

In face I think it is high time that we all start praising these banks for all the work they put it. It aint eazy being sleezy. Wought Woah: I may have to report myself now. Sorry its so far down my computer has a glitch. I meant to have a direct rply to that scoundrel cdad who dares to make fun of the great Jamie Dimon. Surely we can't allow silver to rise to fair value

 

Sarc Off--Great Post Cdad!

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