Update: Unredacted AIG Schedule A Released And Initial Data Spread

Tyler Durden's picture

Update: here is a first run of the data, with a focus on Goldman Sachs. 

It appears that of the roughly 38 Goldman CUSIPs which have data available, there are exactly zero rated A or higher by Moody's (we ignore the rating from the other rating agency as they apparently have long stopped rating most of these securities). There are 9 CUSIP issued after 2006, 21 between 2005 and 2006, and 8 issued before 2005. As Matt Goldstein points out, of the 25 or so deals that had CDS written on them after January 1, 2006, Goldman accounts for 40% of this late (post 2005) issuance. Goldstein notes: "that’s critical because in December 2007, former AIG Financial Products
head Joseph Cassano had said AIG largely got out of the CDS business by
the end of 2005." Some more reasons to finally indict the man who, more so than anyone, cost taxpayers hundreds of billions with horrendous risk management practices.

Another observation is that of Goldman's roughly $15.7 billion in original issues, the current amount outstanding on the underlying securities is only $11.7 billion as of January 2010, a factor of about 75%. Yet, based on paid down amounts, Goldman had the benefit of having almost the full contractual notional on the CDS: recall per BlackRock the firm had exposure of roughly $14.5 billion. In other words: even though Goldman was on the hook for about $11.7 billion in actual outstandings (as of January 2010, the current amount in November 2008 was likely higher), the amount that it received between collateral and ML III presumed almost an unamortized exposure. We are backing into the data to determine what the actual amount as of November 2008 was: we estimate it was about ~$13 billion, which unless we are misreading the data, means that Goldman likely got the extra benefit of amortization on the underlying, which could have amounted to over $1.5 billion.

Yet the critical question is: since there is not one security rated A, and in fact the median rating is a high C, and since we know that Soc Gen had parked its securities with the Fed in November 2008, just what standards does the Federal Reserve have when accepting securities in the discount window to lend against? And the implication is that Bernanke will allow any toxic crap to be eligible collateral, likely at par.

We will continue analyzing the other firms' securities as well, and solicit reader input in ideas on how to steer this analysis.

 


 

The previously top-secret Schedule A has been released and is attached. We are currently going through the data, focusing on prices, ratings, LTVs and other taxpayer critical data. Stephen Friedman saying, as we type, that revealing Schedule A will injure the taxpayer interest, as when the Fed will try to sell these CUSIPs, sophisticated buyers will have an advantage. Of course, we note, these sophisticated buyers will exist only because this list was offloaded to the taxpayers in the first place.

 

 

h/t Shahien Nasiripour

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bugs_'s picture

Hurray!  Trust but verify.

ATG's picture

So it may not be outside the realm of possibility

that the 20:1 leveraged Fed may choke on its

own portfolio unless it can offload toxic junk

to the next musical chair alphabetic taxpayer

funded agency...

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

 

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-273's picture

"The way the AIG bailout was engineered was to specifically benefit Goldman Sachs and its trading partners," said Janet Tavakoli, a Chicago-based derivatives expert and founder of Tavakoli Structured Finance.

Yup.

JohnKing's picture

I wonder how much was indirectly paid to Goldman through SocGen and the other characters, my guess is "all your bailout belongs to us".

Anonymous's picture

Hell of a stick save, Llyod!!! That's one way to avoid those nasty write-downs of 25% of the asset's value.

-berlinjames02

sohbetme's picture

I like your ideas and thoughts. While chat and sohbet with my friends talking about it.

berlinjames02's picture

Hell of a stick-save, Llyod! That's one way to avoid a 25% writedown on the value of the asset.

Careless Whisper's picture

Paulson actually told Congress today that if he didn't bail out AIG the unemployment rate would have gone to 25% !!! LMAO Let's give that song and dance man one of these:

http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/about/awards/images/side_oscar.jpg

 

tom a taxpayer's picture

Wow, what a guy! Paulson must have saved or created 15 million jobs.

Anonymous's picture

Go! Go! Go! ZH, get the facts out before the hearing ends!!!

blindfaith's picture

Congressmen and Senators do not listen to or read facts. Only contributions are facts to them, and the very one they are 'investigating' are the one who finance their runs for office.
NOTHING will happen to any of them.

Bubby BankenStein's picture

I'm curious to see this grouped by bank issuing the CDO.

Why would the FEDS pay 100% (FED funded collateral plus subsequent CDS tear up funding) for the CDO's when they could accomplish the same benefit to AIG (Taking AIG off the hook) by an assignment of AIG CDS obligations to Maiden Lane III?  At least Maiden Lane III could collect any CDS premiums due, and not have to immediately fund the counter party payout.  There would also be a stronger basis for fair negotiation of future settlement.

Not that I think AIG should have been bailed out in any way.

I guess I'm missing half a brain.

jswede's picture

that's a GREAT question, bubby.  they needed to do something, fine.  but why the rush to terminate the contracts?

TimmyM's picture

The collateral was deteriorating. Wait till you see the credit ratings before and after...

Bubby BankenStein's picture

Had Maiden Lane III taken assignment of the CDS, demand for return of all collateral in excess of contractual minimums to Maiden Lane III would be expected.  This is because Maiden Lane III is as good as golden.

waterdog's picture

I await the fallout with gleeful anticipation.

Great job by great people.

I read the prior post and realize now who released it.

 

Cistercian's picture

 I LOVE Zerohedge.

 You guys ROCK!!!!

 The epicness is breathtaking!

-273's picture

Epicurus is a key figure in the development of science and the scientific method because of his insistence that nothing should be believed except that which was tested through direct observation and logical deduction.

Cistercian's picture

 Indeed...and how appropriate, now that we can see the data!

 An Epic win for ZH.

Anonymous's picture

OK, I have printed my screen 4 times now to capture this info. Can Tyler tell me how to front run the Fed for profit, please? How do we know when they put this crap up for sale, and how does one position oneself to profit from the sale?

Anonymous's picture

"The biggest single gift was the AIG rescue. No one has ever provided a good argument for why we did it other than we were bailing out Goldman Sachs."
-Joseph E. Stiglitz Nobel Economics Prize Winner

Anonymous's picture

The Crux

Debt: (transferred in bulk to public balance sheet, or mismarked via gimmick accounting) must be paid off or defaulted. Debt service demands most of nation's net income in variety of forms.

Debt saturation has been so effective, that further debt adds nothing to GDP but may in fact diminish.

Demographics: Babyboomers own or control 70% of assets which they wish to begin devoting to retirement uses and downsizing. Delivering these to market for liquidity purposes will swamp thin demand as later generations are credit constricted and onerously debt burdened.

Demand: aggregate demand has collapsed. Balance sheet repair is in full force by those able to pay down and service debt. Marginally disposable income is saved or used to pay debt, not to increase consumption. Gov't seeks to meet gap by military spending (not a good sign). Large assets and illiquid assets will be impaired for decades.

Dilution: Fed printing dilutes work ethic as counterfeit competes with bona fide. Market agents power is diluted as counterfeit dollars mimic investor's currency votes. This mismarks, misprices, and distorts market signals. Printed dollars have greater political utility too as they target political goals and not the aggregate goals of the collective marketplace.

Finance functions best in terms of time. Compressing time to meet funding needs, or dilating time to span out panic, instability, discovery of fraud, or raiding the public purse.

Eventually the four D's must make their claim. But the Fed/Treasonry are very adept at control of the timing.

hbjork1's picture

+10 And my scale only goes to 10.

bchbum's picture

Its almost nice to know that they couldn't just give gs 13.5 B, but they had to give other people money as well.  Which leads me to believe gs got more than 13.5B.

DaveyJones's picture

just called issa's district office to thank him and encourage him

DaveyJones's picture

"these sophisticated buyers will exist only because this list was offloaded to the taxpayers in the first place"   - and that makes all of us the non consenting unsophisticated crime victim seller? 

nonclaim's picture

In time to torpedo Bernake's reappointment tomorrow? Maybe not but we will sure put the sign of the beast on those who vote yes.

John McCloy's picture

I showed my support for Kanjorski and mailed him his Shill of the year award today. It's a bowling trophy with the bowler replaced with Bernanke, the ball replaced with money sack and the pins replaced with American citizens.

Incredibly to receive one so early in 2010 is quite an achievement.

tom a taxpayer's picture

Ouch! I just got hit between the legs with Ben's bowling ball. 

Signed

A Pinhead

Anonymous's picture

CATS: ALL YOUR BA{NK'S CRAP}SE ARE BELONG TO U.S.

YOU HAVE NO CHANCE TO SURVIVE. MAKE YOUR TIME.

...unexpectedly...

Jim in MN's picture

 

Furriners!  It went to furriners and Golden Slacks! 

 

That's my kids' money you fucks!  Lazy fucking bad bets on mortgage derivatives...bets in the billions, many of them.  They should be paid ZEEEEEEEEEE-RO for this shit.

 

Fuck you!

 

 

VegasBD's picture

Its going to cost you more (in devalued currency) than your kids.

"using our kids money" is a political phrase used to make you look the other way when gas hits $5/gallon.

 

calltoaccount's picture

it wasn't just "bad bets"-- it was FRAUD.  All of these pigs should be indicted.

 

 

excerpted from: http://market-ticker.org/

?The essence of all asset bubbles is fraudulent credit creation.

  While the form of these fraudulent securities vary from one bubble to another the essence of the scam never does, because in order to screw people in the sale of securities you must lie in some fashion (whether by omission or commission) about their value.

...the warnings were clear as early as 2004 and included the FBI, HUD and private credit analytic firms all issuing loud and strident warnings that the non-conforming mortgage market was rife with fraud and that in one classification of this paper (ALT-A mortgages), nine in ten mortgages were not properly underwritten - that is, the income and assets claimed did not match reality.

 

hbjork1's picture

"FRAUD".  At last we are getting a handle on the basic problem.

ayanni's picture

So GS and the FRBNY get through the day in good shape and the market looks to close green.  One part of the story that doesn't get nearly enough attention in this scam and coverup that Fiderer pointed to in his Monday article the simple fact that GS did all of their business with AIG and only AIG.  A $22 billion CDO portfolio exclusively with AIG in the summer of 2007?  New Century had already failed, the Bear Sterns Hedge Funds had gone down, the shit had hit the fan - many on this board were likely short up to their eyeballs AIG - and yet the smartest guys in the business were long up the their eyeballs exposure to AIG CDO counterparty exposure?  I guess GS can argue there was no other options and they had to hedge risk somewhere etc.  Everyone knew AIG was going down.  Normally that would cause one to reduce counterparty risk with that firm.  Whatever...

nonclaim's picture

Now that this is out, GS has an opportunity to prove they were really "fully hedged" and that AIG could sink without leaving a stain in the water.

Cistercian's picture

 Now that is funny.And the likelihood GS was protected is zero....unless they were referring to their boy Hank "the felon".

 Just when you thought politicians had the market cornered on lying every time their lips move!

phaesed's picture

Truly wish I was better versed in CDO pricing, thank you for your effort on this.

Sancho Ponzi's picture

Among those who would have been hit the hardest:

Max 2007,2008: Deutsche Bank

Triax 2006-2A: Goldman (we don't need no stinkin' money) Sax

What a shocker

Anonymous's picture

This is a pretty funny slideshow from fox about Bernankes next job.

http://www.foxnews.com/slideshow/opinion/2010/01/27/photo-op-bernanke-jo...

Anonymous's picture

What does all this mean? That the taxpayer paid $62 billion for stuff worth only $30 billion?

Bubby BankenStein's picture

SIGTARP said today that Treasury reported to be $30B in the hole.  Depends on ultimate recovery on the CDO's.  Like who knows.

Anonymous's picture

In the end taxpayer paid some $184B to bailout AIG. But we indirectly bailed out Goldman, SocGen etc. Instead we could have carved out rotten AIG division out instead of bailing out the whole firm. The other insurance divions were doing fine.
Read more here. Huffington post link Huff-Post

Anonymous's picture

UBS is the one to look at, Marla.
UBS - Oct '09 - Wealthy U.S. tax cheats caught in gov program

UBS - Feb '09 - UBS fined $780 million for aiding tax cheats

AIG - Mar '09 - AIG Bailout good for Goldman Sachs, other Banks, but not Investors

UBS - Mar '09 - Recipient of $3 Trillion of U.S. taxpayer dollars.

UBS - Jan 9, '10 - Tax Cheats go FREE, Whistleblower Goes to Jail

asteroids's picture

Now we know why UBS rolled over on all US citizens!

milbank's picture

And guess where Phil Gramm, former Senator from Texas and author of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA), also known as the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, the law that negated the Glass-Steagall Act, got a job after he left the Senate. . . . Hmmmmmm?