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Albert Edwards (And Goldman Sachs) On "The Biggest Scandal Of The Last Decade": Plunging Labor Force Participation

Tyler Durden's picture


Seven months ago, when the horrendous August 6 NFP print set the stage for Jan Hatzius to lower his outlook for the economy (and all the other sellside lemmings to follow suit), resulting in the announcement of QE2 three weeks later at Jackson Hole by our dangerous monetary Dr. Moreau (not our definition: Sean Corrigan's - more on that later), we dubbed an article titled "Real U-3 Unemployment Rate When Adjusted For Labor Force Participation: Around 14%" in which we warned that the unemployment rate presented for public consumption is really one big lie. Fast forward to today, when we now read that the topic of labor force participation, and specifically the massive plunge therein, is now seen by one of the brightest  strategist minds, that of SocGen's Albert Edwards, as "one of the scandals of the last decade." We thoroughly agree. In fact, we are certain that the labor force participation rate is the greatest scam the government is attempting to pull in order to create the impression that QE is working. The threat of this issue being comprehended by the broader population is finally so big that it necessitated Goldman Sachs' Sven Jari Stehn to come out with yet another extremely humiliating apologist piece of drivel, explaining how the labor force participation rate is really not at all concerning and that one should welcome the fact that less people are in the "labor pool", as a percentage of the total population, than at any time in the last 26 years. Nothing could be further from the truth, and in fact it underscores Bernanke's latest Catch 22 - the "lower" the unemployment (U3) rate is, the worse the economy is, as more and more workers get terminally disenchanted with their labor prospects, thereby validating just how ugly the truth behind the scenes truly is.

Here is what Zero Hedge said on August 6, 2010:

Running these numbers through the actual unemplyment calculation, reveals the following: while assuming a declining LFP rate we obviously get the 9.5% unemployment rate, assuming a peak 67.1% LFP results in a 13.0% unemployment rate. And if the labor force participation rate were to grow according to trendline, the jobless rate in the US today would have been reported at 14.7%, just about where the U-6 was reported, but based on an entirely different methodology.

We even charted this for those whose strong suit is visual learning:

Keep in mind, that as the participation rate plunged since August, this chart looks far uglier now, and the real unemployment rate assuming trendline growth of the population and the labor force participation, is easily north of 15%.

We are delighted to discover that once again we were more than half a year ahead of the curve in spotting this latest attempt at gross manipulation of popular sentiment vis-a-vis some imaginary improvement in the unemployment rate.

So now that the stage has been set in this latest fight of discovering the truth between the forces of pragmatic skepticism and vile central planning propaganda, here is how Albert Edwards sees this topic.

One of the scandals of the last decade is the decline in US labour force participation. Yet despite this “reserve army of the unemployed” holding down wage and price inflation, there is likely to be a cyclical upward shock on core CPI. Given the market’s current worries about the inflationary impact of QE, prepare for a major market over-reaction.

It wouldn't be an Edwards piece without the recount of some self-deprecating anecdote. Well, age is as good as any:

At a macro client lunch recently, it was fear of sharply rising inflation and bond yields that topped investor concerns for de-railing the equity bull market. The discussion of inflation was very interesting but I felt very, very old when one of our guests related that his parents remembered 15% inflation! Hang on, I can remember 15% inflation. In fact, I can remember 25% inflation! Am I really now that old? My mind was transported back a decade when I was in a pub with a work colleague chatting to the barmaid who was a student at the local university. I already felt old when I discovered she had never heard of The Beatles, but on the way out of the pub she told my colleague that "your dad's a real rocker?!" That week I shaved off my moustache to shave 10 years off my appearance. What to do now? Well at almost 50 and newly-wed, I am more than content to become a historic relic and talk about my personal experience of double-digit inflation.

At about the same time I was being mistaken for my colleague's father, US labour force participation was peaking at 67% of the working age population (see chart below). Then, it had been rising continuously since the early 1960s, but the savage decline seen since is symptomatic of the post bubble, Ice Age adjustment and has profound implications.

Next, we take some pride in seeing that Edwards recreates the chart we put out over 7 months ago:

The decline in the proportion of the working age population in the workforce has contributed greatly to the impression that unemployment has fallen. Had the participation rate remained at the 2000 peak of 67%, the official unemployment rate would now be 13% (see chart below). That means the level of unemployment would be some 6.7 million higher than the 13.8 million currently officially registered. The Bernanke Bust has unraveled decades of social progress. (Note that January's 500k decline in workforce participation fully accounted for the decline in unemployment from 9.4% to 9% that month. This lumpy decline was due to a benchmark revision as laid out in Table C of the payroll report - link, but that does not in any way negate the shocking downtrend in the participation rate over the last decade or the fact that if participation had not declined sharply, unemployment would be 13%.

Another way of looking at this is to note how the rise in the labour force has levelled off over
the last few years, despite the working age population trending higher (see chart below).

And for the latest Catch 22 the Chairsatan finds himself in: should we really have an economic improvement, absent massive BLS data manipulation, the labor pool will surge by far more than actual jobs created, pushing the U-3 far higher, thereby extinguishing any simplistic explanations that the unemployment rate is declining due to economic improvement. In fact, the only reason the unemployment rate is so low is that the economy is so bad we have a near record number of people discouraged from actually looking for jobs!

No wonder Ben Bernake is reported on Bloomberg as telling the House Budget committee yesterday that unemployment would remain elevated "for some time" despite the biggest two month fall in the unemployment rate since 1958 - link. For if there is a "true" cyclical recovery, there are an awful lot of discouraged workers who might emerge from the woodwork to keep the rate of unemployment very high and wage inflation at its current low rate.

At this point Edwards shifts his focus to inflation and the impact rising CPI, primarily due to the "rent" component which is 30% of overall CPI, and a reflux of Chinese inflation sent back to the US, will have on rates and equities.

Our own US economists have just done an excellent review of the imminent end of disinflationary trends. They note, in particular, that the rent element of the CPI (both actual and imputed), after slumping into outright deflation, has begun to rise once again (see left-hand chart below). As well as being a weight of 30% of the overall CPI, 'rent' comprises a hefty 40% of core CPI (ex food and energy). Our US economists believe the current cyclical uplift that rising rent inflation should be having on core inflation is temporarily being offset by erratic downward moves in goods inflation that will be reversed shortly - link. A series of 0.3% rises in core CPI inflation will seriously threaten the long-term downtrend in 10y bond yields (see right-hand chart below). Any decisive break above 4% is likely to trigger a melt-up in yields which will in retrospect prove to have been a total over-reaction to what are normal cyclical trends. Therein lies the near-term risk, but also the medium-term opportunity.

Lastly, those searching for inflation in all the wrong places, will have to search no more: the reason -  a 4 month lag between Chinese CPI and US imports of Chinese goods, not to mention that said goods are about to surge in price.

Our US economists believe that an additional factor which will drive core CPI up is that higher Chinese inflation is about to ripple onto US shores. Higher Chinese CPI inflation is set to feed through into higher Chinese import price inflation as wages move upwards in China - our economists note a four-month lag (see left-hand chart below). US goods inflation could be set to rise sharply in reaction to higher Chinese inflation (see right-hand chart below). So, despite Ben Bernanke's firm denials that QE is not responsible for higher global food prices and hence higher Chinese inflation, to the extent that he is totally wrong (surely not!), the Fed's QE policies are likely to have a ruinous effect on both bond and equity prices in the near term.

But going back to the labor force participation. As noted above, there is logical, sensible analysis. And then there is anger-inducing spin and propaganda. As usual we have to go no further, than Goldman Sachs' latest worthless apologist analysis on why all of the above is irrelevant, and why it could actually away in a way that doesn't challenge the propaganda machine's dominant theme of economic improvement.

We draw two broader conclusions from our analysis. First, we find little support for the view that the labor market is even weaker than indicated by the 9% unemployment rate. Since participation has evolved roughly as one should have expected given the underlying demographic trends and the state of labor demand, we believe instead that the unemployment rate provides a reasonable read of the state of the labor market.

Second, given our forecast for participation and the Census Bureau’s population projections, we can calculate how much  payroll growth will be required to reach our forecast that the unemployment rate will fall to 8% by late 2012. The answer is that we need gains in nonfarm payrolls that average around 200,000 per month over the next two years—broadly in line with our current forecast.

Those who wish to read this excremental gibberish in its entirey can do so here. All we can say is that there was a time when Goldman economists actually wrote sensible, insightful work. Now, it is as if Goebbels corpse has been exhumated and is running the GS economic department. We hope the millions in taxpayer-funded bonuses allow the Hatzius et al team to sleep well at night. And yes, the people will not forget those who actively lied to them during the greatest economic depression, when "the recovery" is discovered to have been the biggest lie in the history of the US.

Bottom line - look for a continued plunge in the labor force participation rate as this is the only way that the Department of Truth can persist with its massive lie that the unemployment situation is improving, when in reality U3 is north of 14%, a number that when finally confirmed, would see the president and the Hewlett Packard guy impeached for economic treason.


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Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:25 | 956134 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Dear Foreign Dudes,

The debt my government is racking up, I will not pay.

Accept dollars at your own risk, and fuck you very much.


Rodent Six

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:04 | 956215 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Dear Ratboy,

We'll be more than happy to keep your companies' factories and spend the dollars we already have buying your neighborhood.


Foreign Dudes

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:11 | 956224 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

That's cool. How you gonna ship your goods? Hope it is by rail.

That's a nice container ship you have. Be a shame if something were to happen to it.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:25 | 956268 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I am a Pirate... and I am happy to be an active Pirate for the good of my Country.


Privateers and Mariners in the Revolutionary War

The 13 Colonies, having declared their Independence, had only 31 ships comprising the Continental Navy. To add to this, they issued Letters of Marque to privately owned, armed merchant ships and Commissions for privateers, which were outfitted as warships to prey on enemy merchant ships. Merchant seamen who manned these ships contributed to the very birth and founding of our Republic.

Comparison of Navy vs. Privateers in Revolutionary War

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:30 | 956281 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture


Boarders Away! Bitches.


Patriotism and profits. It just does not get any better.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:52 | 956330 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

sprinkle a little Killing in the name of God / Crusade and we will have well rounded lot looking for love in all the right places!

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:53 | 956332 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Odin is pleased by slaughter.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 03:56 | 957277 scaleindependent
scaleindependent's picture

Why is Odin pleased by slaughter?

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 07:03 | 957337 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Well, in *my* favorite interpretation of the Norse myths, it's because slaughter on the field of battle allows his Valkyries to collect the souls of warriors.  And Odin knows that, on the Final Day, he will need all the souls of warriors that he can get -- and it still won't be enough.

Ah, crap.  Now I want to read David Drake's Northworld series again, and I just finished it a few months ago.  :-(

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:09 | 956478 Kayman
Kayman's picture

A couple of dozen container cranes with problems would make privateering unnecessary.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:26 | 956411 snowball777
snowball777's picture

We have convoys for that.

How're you gonna pay your sailors with NO SUGAR DADDY?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:31 | 956942 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Prize money.

What's ten percent of a loaded oil tanker worth?

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:19 | 957026 snowball777
snowball777's picture

About $30M, but you'll have to get through the 130mm laser-guided cannon shells to lay claim.

Best of luck!

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:45 | 956533 AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

Nah, there'll always be enough unemployed Americans to transport containers of goods over logs, as they did with the stones for the pyramids. And they won't complain, else be they accused of "communism" by their peers. And if they complain enough, I'll drop a couple I-phones and GUNZ, and ready. Cheap labour by sheep will never have been so good. They have guns, they think they're free while pulling containers over logs. And if they get bored, there's enough shit for them in their iphones. Thank you Ben, Milton, Ronald for making my business SO COST EFFECTIVE.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 18:20 | 958238 Orly
Orly's picture

There is far more evidence that the massive stones in the Pyramids of Giza were poured in place from Imhotep's formula for concrete than there is for ever having been massive amounts of massive logs in the middle of Egypt.

Doesn't make sense.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 21:33 | 958583 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Aw... Come on Orly

Now don't be pouring water on the Aliens done it theory.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 20:48 | 956668 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Per Monte Python, "things could get broke."

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 13:18 | 957722 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Dear Foreign Dudes,


Yes, the neighborhood is happily awaiting your arrival.  Please stand by the "X" upon arrival.  See you soon.  Don't worry, just like Egypt we are, for the most part, an unarmed populace (;-).



Sat, 02/12/2011 - 21:28 | 956733 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

When England ruled the colonies during the French and Indian Wars private ship owners were given commissions "To go forth as if in war". There was a formula for dividing what was seized between England and the privateers. There was also a formula to divide the privateer portion of the booty amongst the owner on down to the lowest rank. Great incentive to attack your foe, eh!

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 01:58 | 957182 markmotive
Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:30 | 956144 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Sounds good to me. Where do i sign up?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:34 | 956146 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

TARP ='s $800 Billion Dollars ( )

10% Un-Employment, Cost to Carry... $1 Billion dollars a month...

20% Un-Employment, Cost to Carry... $2 Billion dollars a month... (ruffly)


The First (1st) Bailout of $800 Billion Dollars would pay for 15 plus years of Un-Employment Benefits, if 20% was the number...




The First (1st) Bailout of $800 Billion Dollars would pay for 30 years of Un-Employment Benefits, if the rate was 10%...


Since TARP... Trillions have been spent on Wall Street... the Broke Un-Employed people of this Country (the U.S.) did NOT! rob you blind. The Bankers did. The Lobby did. The Elected Dem's, Rep's and / or other(s) did rob you blind.


It is a Mathematical FACT! 1 + 1 does not equal PINK! it does equal 2.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:40 | 956166 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

And the juggernaut of ObamaCare is still looming.

We are gonna implode.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:20 | 956252 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Obama Care... is a $6b lobby that pushed it through... the $6b didnt come from the Ghetto / Trailer Parks..


Obama Care... does pay out 60% of monies to Private Insurance Providers... Hence the $6b+ Dollar Lobby.


Obama is a Pawn, just like any other elected offical who see lobby monies.


Follow the money in all things.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:00 | 956464 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Well, here's some more bullshit to consider. How can our congressmen and senators completely ignore the unconstitutional acts the Obummer (Bush as well) is guilty of perpetrating with this SPP nonsense? This is a fucking outrage. Where is the MSM covering this? Where are the senators demanding a vote on what is clearly a treaty?


The move toward a North American Union received another big boost last week as President Barack Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper met in Washington, D.C. to hammer out a deal on creating a common “perimeter” around the two countries while diminishing the role of the nations’ shared border and developing a biometric system to track North Americans.

The two leaders, touting the plan as a move toward security and prosperity, signed a four-page declaration supposedly committing the two countries to working together on a wide range of issues. According to news reports, the final agreement was the product of many months of work.

The meeting also resulted in the creation of a “Beyond the Border Working Group,” which will be charged with the declaration’s implementation and with reporting to the U.S. President and the Canadian Prime Minister in the next few months and on a regular basis after that.

“Security” and “prosperity” were, as usual, two of the main focuses. “To preserve and extend the benefits our close relationship has helped bring to Canadians and Americans alike, we intend to pursue a perimeter approach to security, working together within, at, and away from the borders of our two countries to enhance our security and accelerate the legitimate flow of people, goods, and services between our two countries,” the declaration states. It also praises the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement.

“We intend to work together in cooperation and partnership to develop, implement, manage, and monitor security initiatives, standards, and practices to fulfill our vision,” the document notes, without a reference to the legislatures of either nation.

“We also recognize that cooperation across air, land, and maritime domains, as well as in space and cyberspace, our enduring bi-national defence [sic] relationship, and military support for civilian authorities engaged in disaster response efforts and critical infrastructure protection, have all contributed significantly to the security of our populations,” it says, adding that increased information-sharing and working with all levels of government and the private sector is high on the agenda. Bringing in third countries — Mexico, perhaps? — and international institutions is part of the plan, too.

Essentially, the declaration commits the two governments to work together on everything from health, security, the economy, terror, fraud, and pandemic preparedness to countless other areas where the U.S. government does not even possess constitutional authority to act within the 50 states. Constitutional constraints are not mentioned at all in the document.

The so-called “Agreement Between the Government of Canada and the Government of the United States of America on Emergency Management Cooperation,” last updated in 2008, will apparently be “a cornerstone” of the efforts. While not mentioned by name, the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America, signed by the Bush regime with the governments of Canada and Mexico, bears striking similarities to the new deal.

Next, the document covers a new area: biometric tracking and identification of North American citizens. “We intend to work toward common technical standards for the collection, transmission, and matching of biometrics that enable the sharing of information on travellers [sic] in real time,” the agreement explains. The two regimes also “expect to work towards an integrated Canada-United States entry-exit system.”........................

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:02 | 956894 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

You act like the law matters!

They just installed a military junta in Egypt.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:22 | 956931 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Meet the new boss...

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 01:26 | 957131 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

I will take a junta before mullahs any day.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:27 | 956413 snowball777
snowball777's picture

So you're a badass that can take on China, but Obamacare is gonna take you out?


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:33 | 956945 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Don't have to "take on China." Just have to profit mightily and raise their shipping costs.


Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:22 | 957031 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Somehow I don't see you and your buddies in a Zodiak with Lapua magni mounting a huge threat to a Sovremenny class destroyer.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:41 | 957042 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Warship escorts.

Sounds expensive. Mission accomplished.

China's navy sounds dangerous. When do you think they might move on to modern ships, or even build their own?

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has two modified Sovremenny destroyers, delivered in December 1999 and November 2000. In 2002, PLAN ordered two more. The first of these was launched in April 2004 and delivered in December 2005. The second vessel was launched in July 2004 and delivered in September 2006.

Big ocean. I'm shaking in my boots.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:48 | 957072 snowball777
snowball777's picture

$800B in reserves, all the factories, and all the rare earth minerals...they'll be able to afford it.

What do you think they want all that smelting coal from 'stralia for?

You: Somali pirate wanna-be.

And there was that little incident near San Diego...

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 01:09 | 957086 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Yeah, seems they don't have very many resources close to home.

Lots of Somalis.

Of course, this is all theoretical since the US govt. likes the taste of Chinese dick, and will never issue the Letters of Marque.

You guys never get tired of that story, do you?

Declare war and test your theory. I am comfortable with that.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:42 | 956520 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

"Obamacare":  a billion dollar giveaway to private insurance companies enabling them to murder their 'clients' and improve shareholder value more easily.

I'm surprised you're not a fan, Rodent:  after all, it legitimates the stripping by big Capital of what little wealth the 'useless eaters' have after the 40 year offensive against their wages and job security.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 20:01 | 956580 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

don't forget the drug companies.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 22:23 | 956830 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Notice how the shares of medical related companies didn't tank after the health care billpassed. Notice how many new government and private sector jobs will have to be created to implement and maintain the 2000+ pages of regulation.

Government expansion is one way of making employment #s go up to sop up lost jobs. We don't mind paying a little more in taxes to help Uncle Sam employ more. After all, if we can't make enough to live on we can just apply for one of them new gov. jobs. I suppose, if it gets to be that all you slackers with regular jobs can't afford gov. burden, you can get a gov. job too. Then, we can all do off shore work answering telephones and doing paper work that Uncle Sam contracts out to the Indians and Chinese  Hey, life is good! 


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:34 | 956149 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

Who needs a job when you can just sit home all day and get paid for it by the government?



Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:39 | 956164 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Huh. I thought that was my job. Who woulda thunk?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:20 | 956256 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Food Stamps / Un-employment Checks and Jerry Springer keep all the fat, stupid and otherwise engaged Americans entertained while the World ignores Gravity all around them. So yes our forefather would say we have ignored the obvious and will suffer the consequences of doing so.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:41 | 956308 cossack55
cossack55's picture

But, since I spend all my time on the sofa with my laptop reading ZeroHedge, does that not make me an IT kind of guy?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:43 | 956313 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Cousin It?

Okay, I'll give you that one.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:02 | 956470 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Trust me. I have done the math. A woman can have children by more than one man.

I did more research and I figured out that men do not want to have children by more than one woman. When Tyler grows up he will change the imagry of this site to Clive Owen instead of Brad Pitt.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:33 | 956290 DosZap
DosZap's picture

All those that are currently receiving it, and the music STOPS.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:09 | 956479 Peace is the x-axis
Peace is the x-axis's picture


Consider the business plan:

"To complete the ruin of the industry of the [cattle] we shall bring to the assistance of speculation the luxury which we have developed among the [cattle], that greedy demand for luxury which is swallowing up everything. We shall raise the rate of wages which, however, will not bring any advantage to the workers, for, at the same time, we shall produce a rise in prices of the first necessaries of life ...  We shall further undermine artfully and deeply the sources of production, by accustoming the workers to anarchy and to drunkenness ..."


"The need for daily bread forces the [cattle] to keep silence and be our humble servants."


"...hatred will be still further magnified by the effects of economic crises, which will stop dealing on the exchanges and bring industry to a standstill. We shall create by all the secret subterranean methods open to us ... a universal economic crisis whereby we shall throw upon the streets whole mobs of workers simultaneously."

Compare GS comment -

" should welcome the fact that less people are in the "labor pool", as a percentage of the total population, than at any time in the last 26 years".

How welcome this fact is, greatly depends on who "one" is.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:29 | 956416 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Anyone who doesn't want to spend the rest of their lives in gangland, for a start.

I hear the benefits aren't that great if you didn't already have a decent gig to begin with.

99 weeks and counting...

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:43 | 956528 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

Who needs a real job when you can just be a parasitical banker-gangster sucking the blood of productive workers?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:39 | 956161 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

But UnN is NOT a SCANDAL because the CORRECT definition of UnN has built into it a variable which by default is vague. So the scandal is the original definition/term/metrics. 

Before God, Dog, and $ there was WORD.

The antediluvian conception of markets will implode but will the structural foundations mutate to serve Man or will Man be enslaved to eternally forage the ruins? 

Oh boy waxing so quasi Oswald Spengler on a Sat.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:43 | 956171 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Why work when billions of QE monies have been gifted and pumped into less than zero worthy causes in order to subsidize venal useless individuals? 

The system is a sham. I would enjoy working on the solution, but not before the whole place has gone up in a shitstorm (the only conditions for semblance of change).


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:35 | 956424 snowball777
snowball777's picture

We are a small band of highwaymen looking to expand into new territory.

We are looking for a good enforcer that can help perform crowd control duties.

Job description:

- Establish rapport with new clients

- Small weapons handling

- Crowd control


- Should have a commanding voice

- Understand dominator psychology

- Be willing to 'go the extra mile', if necessary


- 15% of all loot gathered

- This is a part-time job


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:16 | 956486 Kayman
Kayman's picture


How do I send you my CV ?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:34 | 956511 snowball777
snowball777's picture

If you're a good fit, I'll see you on the news soon enough. ;)

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:15 | 956484 Peace is the x-axis
Peace is the x-axis's picture


The "change" arising from said (manufactured) shitstorm may not be anything like the change you're hoping for.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:43 | 956172 Misean
Misean's picture

Well, as we're soon going to need Soylent Green to feed the masses, a little tweakage on the Birth/Death model could help the U3 numbers as well.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:37 | 956429 snowball777
snowball777's picture


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:51 | 956183 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

if we were any more "ahead of the curve", we'd NEVER ketchup to the MEAT.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:51 | 956189 B9K9
B9K9's picture
I posted this reply on an earlier dead thread, but it seems particularly apropos to this article.

Zero Gov't said "Tyler, what if the deflationary side has nothing to do with Bernanke? What if the inflationists (35,000 economists and 99.99% of the population) are making the colossal error of measuring a money event when economics is actually a human event???


Fuck Bernanke and the US Govt. Focus instead on businessmen, the REAL  economy, not the f'n financial nonsense going on in Wall Street and 'raise the debt ceiling Washington'. In the REAL economy businessmen are contracting investment, storing cash reserves, cutting costs to the bone (deflation, deflation, deflation).

This is a great comment. The way I approach the problem is to reduce the number of core variables. On one hand, the central government has two distinct advantages:

  1. Absolute police power (both foreign & domestic)
  2. Global monetary reserve status

Note that these two elements share a common characteristic in that they are creations of man. On the other hand, present American society has four key disadvantages:

  1. Declining domestic oil reserves
  2. Total population & inverted demographics (both age & IQ)
  3. Eviscerated productive economy
  4. Total debt & inverted welfare state (both accumulated balance and # of dependents)

As above, note that the last two share a common characteristic in that they are creations of man. That is, in a pinch we could throw up trade barriers, re-industrialize and collapse the welfare state. Yes, difficult to accomplish, but by no means 'impossible'.

However, the real killers are the first two items. This is the same situation Egypt and every country in the world either currently faces or will face. It doesn't matter what type of government is in place - the issue is population overshoot & flat/declining fossil fuels. The miracle of  petroleum is what allowed the common man to even harbor expectations (illusions) of future wealth & comfort. Absent oil's true 'wealth effect', we're all back in the same boat as our ancestors. That is, subject to a master-slave relationship where humans, not machines, provide the actual horsepower.

This is why the real trend is deflation. Ben can print all he wants, and sure, we're seeing the effects show in prices of nominally priced goods. But the real effect are the true (lack of) investment levels, including housing stock. No one who assumes real risk, as opposed to having access to FunBux, is taking out loans (a key act of confidence) to finance future growth expectations.

As Zero Gov't says, forget the numbers. Just look around. What do you see? I see empty roads in what has been traditionally one of the most congested, car dependent regions in the country. That's reality. It's not just the price of gas - it's because people have no jobs in which to commute. Rounding out that picture with a complete lack of building activity, and a shit load of people hanging around the beach (since they have nothing better to do), provides a better trend line than the mere temporal acts of one man.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:02 | 956210 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

how can U folkz BE so certain that the "REAL economy" is all (?) abt "businessmen"?  oh, you're gonna "help us to help ourselves" instead of the gov't?  i don't know how to thank you.  so i won't.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:02 | 956352 Stimulus Billy
Stimulus Billy's picture

The decline of oil is a problem, however, it has opened up a need for new technology and with that, reasons to be optimistic that we can solve the energy thing through renewables and high technology and with that, jobs.  It is very early in that progress, and too many recources are deployed to prop up yesterdays failing innovations, such as in finance.  The leadership isn't there, disorganized, seeming to be waiting for a crisis to make the alternatives to oil cost-efficient, trusting industry to solve it when their fudiciary duty is actually only to profit from the crisis.  Instead of make-work building roads nobody can afford to drive on, better electric grids and infrastructure to deliver alternative fuels would be a better direction for government involvement.  It might give us some hope, too.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:45 | 956532 snowball777
snowball777's picture

And what makes you think that the same robber barons who gained control of oil from Rockefeller to present day won't have just as firm a grip on the next big thing?

Assuming you can solve that problem, how will you compete with Germans and Chinese who have a decade-long head start and most of the required material inputs?

Assuming you can solve that problem, how will you compete with the psychological unwillingness of the mentally retarded in the US who refuse to contemplate a shift to oil independence?

If we wait until there is a 'crisis', it will have been too late. Moving off oil requires HUGE infrastructure changes which, although they will create jobs, will take years to complete; years during which a lack of cheap oil will destroy us.

I'm allergic to hope.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 22:04 | 956803 Stimulus Billy
Stimulus Billy's picture

The robber barons won't be located in the Persian Gulf, at least.  Energy independence would keep wealth here.  It would be hard to say we're running out of sun.  Electric generation can be widely dispersed, you may even be able to make much of your own (solar).

I am not sure I agree with your claim that Gemans and Chinese are ahead.  Much research here, but yes China has cheap industry and producing solar panals en masse.  But the greatest effort can only be domestic, a great deal of retrofitting and infrastructure work needs to be done.  I would start with massive solar plants in the deserts, and grids that could handle it.  All our trucks and busses should be running on domestic natural gas (J Paul Getty's plan).  Research should continue to bring efficient hybrid and fuel cell cars to market.

You may be on to something with the retards.  $10 a gallon gas will surely bring change, and in the meantime industry can sit back and just wait for the crisis profiteering.  Too bad we don't have the leadership to look out for that.

I agree waiting for a crisis is a problem.  Getty said we are the only country without a energy policy.  Too many special interests you know that story. 

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:32 | 957051 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Germany is the #1 exporter of PV arrays and China controls 97% of the rare earth mineral market...a.k.a the stuff you need to make said arrays, wind turbines (at least until ferrous magnets are up to snuff), and hybrids.

Global production (Figure 2.1) reached 6.9 GW for the year 2008, an 87% increase over 3.7 GW produced in 2007, which was led primarily by manufacturers in Europe, China, and Japan. The market shares for the top regions/countries are 27% each for Europe and China, 18% for Japan, 12% for Taiwan, 6% for the United States, and 10% for the rest of the world (ROW). From 1997 to 2008, approximately 18.5 GW of PV cells were produced globally.

It's not just 'a problem' would lead to the complete collapse of our oil-based economy...making dealing with said crisis impossible. The infrastructure needs to be in place BEFORE we stop using oil, for whatever reason.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:02 | 956895 Kayman
Kayman's picture


Incredulous country... No ?

Everyone but the political whores and their pimps recognize the economic and security reasons to put America on a foreign energy diet and grow natural gas and domestic electricity.

Instead our "leaders" offer "hope and change" while doing more of the same-nothing.

In the fall of 2008 "Bob Smith" claimed the earth was coming to an end, unless we put $800 billion (today approaching $6 trillion) towards creating energy sources in America.

Now, try to imagine what our economy would be like.

Money not only needs to be spent but it needs to be spent wisely.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:15 | 956386 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by B9K9
on Sat, 02/12/2011 - 15:51

Note that these two elements share a common characteristic in that they are creations of man. On the other hand, present American society has four key disadvantages:

  1. Declining domestic oil reserves


We have HUGE reserves... the pipeline is not big enough to move the reserves... better that we have spent a little more up front and to be the last left with large reserves, no?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:48 | 956543 snowball777
snowball777's picture

22B / 22M/day == 1000 days or about 2 years and 9 months.


Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:21 | 957029 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I thought I was clear... in ground verse in tank.

Thanks for Playing.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:36 | 957058 snowball777
snowball777's picture

No, I get that you meant "in ground"'s the "HUGE" part on which you've no leg to stand.


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:39 | 956512 Peace is the x-axis
Peace is the x-axis's picture

Great comment B9K9.

I'd encourage all to begin following the anti-economist's economist, Dr. Steve Keen, via his Debt Deflation blog:

Cannot recommend highly enough his 2001 treatise 'Debunking Economics: The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences'.  This is a devastating critique of mainstream economic thought, showing both logically and mathematically that its theories are entirely premised on assumptions that are foundationally absurd.

Keen is one of only 13 economists worldwide who predicted the GFC and advanced cogent reasons for the prediction (ie, not just an intuitive guess).  He won the 2010 Revere Award (voted by economic peers) for his prediction and work substantiating it, with more than twice as many votes as high profile "luminaries" such as Nouriel Roubini.

It's all about the debt. And deflation.  In the 'real-world' economy.

Keen is launching a Center for Economic Stability later this year, to be built on the idea of "The People's Economics".  Make sure you join in, to help develop a new economics for a new century.

( Yes, I know him ... /commercial )

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 22:44 | 956858 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

I agree with most of what you wrote. The only difference for the US, Canada, Russia is the massive amounts of coal, nat.gas, and oil. The US with nat. gas could once more have a big advantage over other countries that have little or no energy resources. Europe is up shit'screek but the US could make do with fuels the rest of the world has to pay more for. Canadians are in the sweet spot and more sensible than their cousins south of the border.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:57 | 956194 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Many commenters of the late 19th century noted how lazy the chinese were ( the ones who stayed in china). There was no need to apply oneself because in their system there were no incentives and few decent jobs. Now just look at 'em! In the usa on the other hand lots of people have now decided they would rather barely scrape by than get a shitty job. People are learning to make do on a single family income and the multigenerational family structure is making a comeback. However there has to be a reasonable level of inexpensive food calories to acvomplish this. I suspect people in families will start taking turns working. Morningstar Arkansas used to be named Loafer's Paradise because if you didnt need a lot of material possessions and didnt mind living off squirrel and raccoon you could get by with little work. Wild greens were always available except winter, and pine needle tea and wild rose hips kept scurvy away in the winter when there were no wild greens.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:59 | 956203 Misean
Misean's picture

Squirrel, it's not just for hillbillies anymore! A nice still and a little revenuer long-pig can really round out the diet.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:07 | 956222 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i know a whole family that makes USP outa corn AND big, sweet visalia onions!  i'm allergic to etoh, but what U say is a chronic solution!  nice.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:12 | 956239 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Naah....take some seed from colombia and mexico. Plant it in the holler down Copperhead Road.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:07 | 956223 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I wonder how many people know what long pig is and where it used to be sold? I hear it did more or less taste like our omnivore genetic cousin, the pig!

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 22:51 | 956872 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Beg pardon, but they are not nor were hillbillies. They are rural mountain folk who persevere.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:03 | 956212 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Desperate Governments with Desperate Lies.... Cannot be...

p.s. Christmas Greetings from Stalingrad...

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:57 | 956199 NOPOMO
NOPOMO's picture

An extreme way to look at this is we could have 0% Unemployment with no one working. 

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 16:59 | 956200 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Bottom line - look for a continued plunge in the labor force participation rate as this is the only way that the Department of Truth can persist with its massive lie that the unemployment situation is improving...

Have no interest in a lousy job nor do I have any interest in creating a job for anyone else. The msm says we are in recovery. If we are in recovery then everything is fine and they don't need my participation. Besides, I hear that the emerging market folks are spending clownbux like drunken sailors.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:09 | 956229 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

chain saw!

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:51 | 956327 buzzsaw99
Sun, 02/13/2011 - 03:51 | 957271 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture



no offense, 99.  rather than buzzsawed, i thought you'd just chainsawed it! sry for the ambiguity.  my bad.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:02 | 956207 NOPOMO
NOPOMO's picture

Ramp those stocks Ben...that is sure to save us.  We can eat the stock certificates along with the fake rice from China.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:02 | 956209 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

With the true unemployment rate around 18% who is going to pay the Taxes to fund the Government?  Who is going to pay the National Debt and the interest thereon?  Who will pay to fund the Government? We know Wall Street and Major Corporation pay no or little in taxes. 

Without Tax revenue the Government will grid to a halt.  Even those who are employed are employed in lower paying jobs or part time jobs.

There will come a point in my opinion where the Money printing and interest on the Money created will not be able to be paid as no one will be working to pay the Taxes needed to support the Government, the Debt, and the interest on the Debt.

The shame of it is that when the average Americans debt gets to high they pull in their belt and sacrifice to get their finances under control.  Yet, the Fed continues to Print Money, giving it to others like Banks and are putting Americans in Debt they will never be able to repay.  No matter how frugal they are in their own lives.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:07 | 956395 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hon, yer econ is ok, ok?  but, it seems 2 moi that might begin to think in a new way abt:

1)  the "average" american.

2)  the "shame" of someone who isn't REAL doing something that they aren't 'really' doing, in the first place. 

something tells me you are a rich socialist.

i am a poor capitalist.

so, maybe we are both failures in the economics of our choice.  but i do not believe the future is gonna be socialist, and there may not be too much 'wealth' (paper, ok? to keep it simple) left standing .  does your strength and VALUE come from what you have, or who you are

is yer wealth more valuable then yer gut, yer head, your heart, and you personal values---about YOU?  not them.  you.  for a simple example, do you keep yer word?  or is it ok not to, if it's inconvenient, b/c "everybody does that"?

deToqueville saw the strenth of america to be in the voluntary associations of its peoples, not in the gooberment.  not that there wasn't a shadow aspect.  we're gonna cast a shadow due to myriad imperfectionz, no matter what system we accept or, worse, have imposed upon us.  now, many "businessmen" see this in "developing economies".  i duuno; i don't get out much.  but, if one of your 'neighbors' needs a hand, do we really need the government to say it is ok for you to lend it?  or to lend it for you?

we shall never make systems so perfect that people will no longer need to be good.  i read that sumwhere, long ago, in a diff. galaxy, i guess, from ours.  so, why not just get the rules down to a coupla pages again, accept that we can be free, and the essence of doing that, successfully, as a community, lies in the worth and ability of the individual to be, serve, and grow?  having "really smart people" manage all the risk for everyone seems to running out of gas.  as individuals, if we each accept the risks of our BEing, perhaps we can enjoy the rewards more, too.  one bloomin Idiot, at a time.


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:33 | 956509 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Actually Slewie, that is another symptom of decline.

Mountains of Laws, overpopulation of lawyers (breeding like rats) 

but Zero JUSTICE.

The ilk that write the laws are the same ilk that govern and apply the laws.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:03 | 956211 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:04 | 956213 SayTabserb
SayTabserb's picture

Hilda Solis figured out the fractional computation needed to make The Boss look good. If the denominator of the work force is E(employed) + U (unemployed), and the numerator is E, then the obvious trick is to keep that U factor defined out of existence. She's done yeowoman's work over there at BLS. One wonders how hard they're pushing on the concept of "discouraged worker" so they can exclude more and more people from the labor force and thus reduce U.  Hilda:  Are you absolutely sure you looked for a job in the last 4 weeks? It was really cold out, and I don't see how anyone could blame you if you stayed indoors and tried to stay warm, only you can't because my Boss just gutted LIHEAP.  Oops, our bad!

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:10 | 956232 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

@topcallintroll: are right. When the rest of world starts to really wory about inflation BB anf the WS says there is no inflation. What a f-n lie. Core such a stupid thing that its not worth commenting.

Copper, Oil and Wheat are priced in USD...and DX has been plunging...and US is not experiencing a inflation pbm? wake up

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:22 | 956253 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I deleted my post you responded to because it was in the wrong place, but this is how early stagflation starts. If we only spend 14 percent or less of total income for food we will manage through the great rebalancing as long as gdp keeps moving faster than core. We are not primarily a commodity dependent economy in terms of imports except oil. We will all be poorer at the end of the great rebalancing no doubt, whether or not you call it inflation, deflation, or a little bit of both depending on sector.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:57 | 956339 DosZap
DosZap's picture

If we only spend 14 percent or less of total income for food


Who is we?, the few that  HAVE real JOBS LEFT?

I live in an area where we have been very fortunate, I see Now Hiring signs all over retail shop doors.

Problem, the rate of pay would pay way less than a 15yr old with a mower, if he were able to mow just 6mos of the year.

Adults w/fams, cannot MAKE do with $8-$10.00 per hr jobs.

I realize in many parts of the US, millions would love that 8-10, not here though.We cannot survive no matter how wonderful the UE rate is in /on a service sector economy.

Tariffs,crank up the Mfg base, is the only way.......that will never happen.

Not part of the plan.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:44 | 956530 Kayman
Kayman's picture


yeah the 14% income for food is another average, easily played with.

On the lower end of the wage scale food inflation will be felt quickly. And you have to drive to get to the store usually.

This country has lost its engine and its way.

I never thought I would see the Berlin Wall come down, I never thought I'd see a President be elected solely because he was black, and I never thought I'd see larceny rewarded ahead of thrift and honesty.

So... strange things can happen and maybe all of our political King Kanutes cannot hold back the tidal wave.  We shall see.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:15 | 956245 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Ooohhh...and I forgott about M3 that is to expensive to survey for the FED...bahhh...what a f-n show the truth...which is to hard to face

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:18 | 956250 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Small story here but the bankruptcies continue in the "recovery":


Borders Bankruptcy Coming Next Week
Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:27 | 956261 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Food Stamps / Un-employment Checks and Jerry Springer keep all the fat, stupid and otherwise engaged Americans entertained while the World ignores Gravity all around them.


So yes our forefather's would say we have ignored the obvious and will suffer the consequences of doing so.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:46 | 956536 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

Bailouts to banker-gangsters are a far more serious problem, costing far more money than the victims you blame.

Just like Uncle Sam's slave-raping founding fathers drew it up ...

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:23 | 957035 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by JW n FL
on Sat, 02/12/2011 - 15:34


TARP ='s $800 Billion Dollars ( )

10% Un-Employment, Cost to Carry... $1 Billion dollars a month...

20% Un-Employment, Cost to Carry... $2 Billion dollars a month... (ruffly)


The First (1st) Bailout of $800 Billion Dollars would pay for 15 plus years of Un-Employment Benefits, if 20% was the number...




The First (1st) Bailout of $800 Billion Dollars would pay for 30 years of Un-Employment Benefits, if the rate was 10%...


Since TARP... Trillions have been spent on Wall Street... the Broke Un-Employed people of this Country (the U.S.) did NOT! rob you blind. The Bankers did. The Lobby did. The Elected Dem's, Rep's and / or other(s) did rob you blind.


It is a Mathematical FACT! 1 + 1 does not equal PINK! it does equal 2.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:28 | 956277 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

Tyler--  I live in silicon valley and of I know MANY highly educated, highly qualified and highly responsible people that can't find SHIT for jobs. I'm talking programmers and software engineers w/ 10 years experience.  The ones that are employed are staying put and those that were cut 2 years ago have gotten nowhere close to back into their field. Its all attrition now. These over qualified people are scrambling as their 99 weeks closes in NOW willing to waitress, retail or whatever. One person had 20 face to face interviews and pounded the pavement for 1  1/2 years and finally got a second rate job.  Most can't even get a face to face interview.  RING THE ALARM BELLS

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:49 | 956323 Hacksaw
Hacksaw's picture

You must be mistaken. Don't you know Americans are all lazy Idol watchers?

sarcasm off

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:55 | 956334 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

when all you fuckers get hungry enough... picking up a gun and taking the fight to the bankers will not seem so crazy.. sarcasm on

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:06 | 956366 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Get out of CA! CA is a nightmare zone. Hear good things about SLC, Denver, and Phoenix, might be a pay cut but lower cost of living and less kicked up to Uncle Sugar. That is not to say there is an abundance of Dev jobs in other places but just better then CA. Hell Moonbeam is back for crying out loud!

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:54 | 956432 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

you might wanna get your investments outa CA, but there are pi-rats all over the place, here, and many of us are so used to the hispanics and the growers, enologists, and master brewers, and the other races, and the food and the rich culture we share, that we don't buy the bullshitky, sir.  i'll say it again:  black markets are free markets.  a lot of people work for cash.  ever had a cash job since you were a kid, sir?  was it as good as cutting grass, babysitting, or shagging golf balls?  were you as free, sir?  just because somebody hustles, doesn't mean he or she is "bad".

well, there are a LOT of great big overgrown kids in CA, sir, and if it weren't for the 3-4 levels of "public sevants" that have bellied up to the trough, and the "debt" they have been putting on the ballots for 5o years, while broadcasting "legislative analyses" that the "net cost" of the debt would be negative, NEGATIVE (!), sir, maybe we'd all be better off.  there are some VERY hip people in CA, sir, and many speak spanish, many are Native Am's, many are young, and many old, like moi.  but, believe it or not, we actually say hello and wave at each other's children, and smile (where's yours?), and probably don't lean on the horn as much as in other places, either.  big, big, prison population too, but it's such a good business for the robotz.  the judges are learning; they're not reaganites, or brownies, generally, so much any more, but they can BE, if they wish.   use a gun, go to prison.  you can hava gun;  you just better not even point it at anybody.  so put yours down.  ok?

it's 70 degrees out sir.  you take care.  i'm gonna go ride my bike and smile and wave and enjoy my life.  if that's ok w/ you and the pretty woman, of course...

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:08 | 956477 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Huh? So your suggestion to software developers is go illegal? Well that doesn't work so well unless it's going black hat and stealing credit information or systems info. Your local judges cool with that, or ducking the tax man? After all seems like those "public servants" want to get paid.

Good luck on the sinking ship. Some of us young guys would prefer to be in a place where we can make some money and don't care about the value of local "culture". To each their own.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:04 | 956891 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture



no, sir, i do NOT care about the "software developers", but rather the "common" citizenry, you fuking pukemeister fascist shithead. the simple, honest hardworking women and men of this country are our Very Best Hope.  it's pretty obvious that you'd like to sink everybody who isn't like you.  c'mon down, asshole.  anytime.  i'm feeling very platonic and dialogical, today, in case you haven't noticed...


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:21 | 956493 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

silicon valley is tough, right now, admitted.  so, get a "second rate job"!  survive!  i have a friend whose husband is very educated and smart.  he got a job as a dishwasher, many years ago. people would ask her:  how can he DO that?  she would answer:  he just does the best he can and he is VERY good at that, so he LIKES it!

plus, the man kept the K so clean and functional, i don't think they paid for a meal for 2 years!

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 17:29 | 956278 kwvrad
kwvrad's picture

kewl that means if we put the available labor force at 1000 people and only 10 unemployed we only have a 1% unemployment. case solved

<sarc off>  there problem solved , think the rest of the

world will buy it?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:03 | 956357 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

this isn't news to me !   in the mid to late 1990's when my children graduated from high school, I tried to help them figure out where to look for employment.    NOTHING.   The only places for my young adult children to work was at STORES.    STORES !   ........ I knew then that something was wrong, but, didn't quite understand back then.   I understand now.   POLICY out of WASHINGTON & WALL ST. has DELIBERATELY destroyed jobs / DELIBERATELY de-industrialized this country.    BANKSTERS HAVE STOLEN OUR PRECIOUS METALS OUT OF FT. KNOX, NO INDUSTRIAL BASE, NOTHING BUT A BUNCH OF WORTHLESS HOUSES & $8 JOBS .   THESE PEOPLE NEED TO BE RUN OUT OF THE COUNTRY, & go to their SWISS BANK ACCOUNTS where the looted riches of this country are hidden........... you know, ROBERT RUBIN, the "strong dollar policy" guy.    Suppress metal, purchase gold & silver at lower prices with worthless fiat money & hide it in SWISS BANKS !   ......... he wins .

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:59 | 956570 Kayman
Kayman's picture


for a gal that upbraided moi for printing "fuck" when you first arrived at ZH, you sure seem to have found fire in your belly.  so... GOOD ON YOU !

Now, keep spreading the word about ZH.

It's real good to know you can say what's on your mind and when those thieving criminal SOB's in the "banking" RICO industry and their political whores steal the milk from your grandchildren right in front of your nose, you can and will say, "Fuck No" I am not going to take it anymore.

All the best 


ps There is Hope.  Spreading the message is sowing the seeds.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 21:00 | 956684 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

All the best 

Kayman      ....thank you & bless your heart.   i'm a very proper person, wore little white gloves to church as a child .    I'm busy stockpiling my home & my daughter's apartment ........ they are all laughing at me, do not believe a word I say & are sick of my insanity regarding total collapse of the country due to it being looted.    Now, I stockpile in secret, hiding extras in closets & garage.    I will never rest until I see ROBERT RUBIN & BILL CLINTON in prison.   I'm now proud to call myself a "revolutionary " at my old age.     & always remember what my GRANDMA JO said (born in 1915, god rest her soul ) :    NEVER TRUST THE GOVERNMENT & DO NOT GO INTO THE STOCK MARKET .

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:16 | 956921 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Ahh the Bill Clinton Foreign Bribery Foundation.

Now that is another story of selling out your country for 35 pieces of silver.

Chinese Wallmart made certain that "donations" were made to Billy Boy and Billy in return made certain American-made goods were crowded out by Chinese shit.

Stock-piling is not a bad thing, especially if you do not live on a farm, but I think we will decline by "Chinese" torture, figuratively and literally. One bloody drop at a time.

P.S. I went to church the other day and after telling the Reverend all the bad things I had done during my life, the Reverend sighed and said "contrary to popular misconception Kayman, there are some things that cannot be forgiven...."

(it's a joke Lynnybee...)

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:04 | 956358 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

It's unbelievable that they would do a decent job researching and displaying the case for the bogus unemployment and CPI numbers, and then turn around and say it's ok though because the dempgraphics support the recovery. Why didn't they expand and show the demographic data that supports the hypothesis that everthing is fine, if this is their conclusionary premise? Do the demographics, even with the aging baby boomers support the rapid fall in the participation rate?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:04 | 956359 LostWages
LostWages's picture

Tell me lies.....tell me sweet little lies....

We have to revise the biggest lies:

1. I only had 2 beers

2. Yes, I love you, and no I won't cum in your mouth

3. QE creates jobs  (aggressively pushing for #1 spot and may achieve when QE 3 starts).

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 20:01 | 956581 Kayman
Kayman's picture


QE creates jobs by pushing down the participation rate. Now wipe your chin.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:16 | 956393 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Where's my torch...

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:18 | 956400 BallsDeepGold
BallsDeepGold's picture

   Unemployment in the US will continue to increase until wages paid to labor get more in line with the wages paid to labor in other countries. Thats right America - you are grossly overpaid for what you do. There is no logical reason for any business to continue to pay YOU what you are making when your duties can be farmed out to far east countries at a fraction of the cost. Americans will have to work for a dollar or two an hour - like the rest of the world before unemployment will begin to subside.  BTW - our Gman is much to shrewd to nominally pay you a buck or two an hour and call it that. But after a massive dose of big bens money printing - in real terms we will be getting the equivalent of a buck an hour.



Sat, 02/12/2011 - 20:10 | 956601 Kayman
Kayman's picture


On the off chance you are serious....

China has risen by shipping worthless crap  to the U.S. while Criminal Bankers and their Political whores encouraged the American Middle Class to liquidate their net worth to purchase this worthless crap. China's foreign reserves came from the liquidation of the American Middle Class.

Now that there is no more net worth to liquidate, Ben, the Quivering Lip Puppett, is printing FRN's (Foolish Rip-off Notes) to finish the job that the great Housing Bubble failed to complete.

This, my friend, is a nation without an engine; nor a moral compass.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 14:56 | 957873 rocker
rocker's picture

Great come back Kayman.  What else remains to be is that if Americans are forced to work for 1 or 2 dollars a hour, we will have riots in our streets just like they do in Egypt now.  Hence, the two more divided classes in America will be exposed further as our economy fails and the middle class has no money for food, shelter, fuel and the garbage, (shit from overseas labor), the elite want them to purchase.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:33 | 956421 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

It's ironic that Obama's Cloward-Piven strategy is really working; a marxist concept aided and abetted by the bankster cartel/FED.  The end game should be really interesting.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:28 | 956502 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Mitch Daniels is on it. And he rides a Harley.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:16 | 956485 6 String
6 String's picture

I was thinking about Eric Sprott's assement that there are no bubbles based on greed, but a bond bubble based on stupidity and fear.

In any case, it dawned on me where the exact bubble is, which will not be a new idea to ZH readers, based on pure and raw greed: Banking.

Sure, it's not necessarily an asset class I'm referring to, I'll save the cheap shops on the bank stocks for now, but an industry full of knowingly greedy people that will keep their bubble industry going at any cost to the rest of us and then the also heads buried under the sand employees that have no idea that their jobs are a pure function of an unsustainable fiscal course and daily legerdemain to the masses by the Von Con Benkentein and his crony cartel elites.

There are no less than 4 low ladder banker types in my little neighborhood alone. All of them work less hours, have less stress, and make far more money than most of the working class locally. In fact, one banker just recieved a bonus recently that was more than his wife's  entire annual salarly as a teacher (not hard, I know, but remember I talking lower level banksters that think this is just a normal way of life for them) and when asked what he has to do for this he will brazenly tell you: nothing. "I don't do anything," he told me. I'm just a relationship manager to small-mid sized businesses and everything gets outsourced (meaning the businesses get screwed generally as he just tells them what vendor to use to fulfill their needs, such as bloated 401k installments).

Now, this is small anectocal shit I fully recognize. But think of it this way: total compensation at banks is at an all time high. One would have to ask themselves, how could this be? After all, unemployment is in the tank, wages are in the tank, housing is in a relentless decline, and the banksters certainly had there hands in that....

Yet, while the economy shrugs along, and the cost of this "recovery" having almost no shred of consequences yet in the U.S. based on 5 trillion in deficit spending for 200 billion of GDP since mid 2008, which will come home to roost, the banksters total compesation have hit an all-time-fucking-high. 

It's disgusting, isn't it? However, like all bubbles, this too shall pop: all these employees that shuffle useless paper around, frolick there days away while they while away at Big Beatties Titties, will become desperate once they, too, lose it all....just as myriad of innocent folk lost their jobs in what appeared to be the safe real estate can't go wrong opportunties.

When it gets too good to be true, which is now and have been for too long for  the bankers, it will in fact become too good to be true. It will pop.

How? Well, that is a topic for another discussion. On the other hand, just read ZH. The answers are all there in this ponzi paper scheme. And when it comes crashing down, no one, IMO, stands to lose more than the knowingly criminal syndicates and the innocent ones that know in their warped little hearts something is seriously wrong in banking Utopia where consequences to ones actions do not apply.

Benny was right when he quoted the over quoted, "what can't go on forever won't." The ponzi scheme will fall on its own weight. When it does, we should all remember Benny Boy and his gang well as they end up in the digital soup lines while hyperinflation kills them off.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 20:20 | 956624 Kalki
Kalki's picture

>>compensation at banks is at an all time high. One would have to ask themselves, how could this be? After all, unemployment is in the tank, wages are in the tank, hosing is in a relentless decline


Good point. It's quite simple...consider a village or a small town a hundred years ago anywhere. When the farmer was making money, when the carpenter was making money, when the smith was making money, nobody cared if the money lender was making three times as the rest.


But now we have a situation where the carpenter is broke, the smith is offshored and the programmer is outsourced, yet the moneylender makes ten times the money!


This will end badly.


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:07 | 956905 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture



oh!  poor us!

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 20:20 | 956627 Kayman
Kayman's picture

6 String

Music to my ears.

If I could pass legislation, I would institute capital punishment for the insular banking class.

For destruction of a country the first two to the gallows, Ben and Alan (to be hanged back-to-back).  No two people contributed to the likely unstoppable decline of this country more than these 2 derivatives.

I'll let others add to the list.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 22:46 | 956864 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Andrea Mitchell

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:36 | 956515 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Who is John Galt? 

John Galt lives. Everybody is John Galt. Everybody is going John Galt.

The productive people are going on strike and disappearing from society.

The moochers and looters can't survive without the productive people.

See you at the Galt's Gulch.....


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 20:14 | 956613 snowball777
snowball777's picture

You're productive how?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 21:01 | 956686 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Physician and love it but soon to be retired. You don't have to be productive for someone else. 

Shortly, I only donate my time in Central America. You're productive how? Crayons will only take you so far...

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 04:11 | 956965 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


most doc-tors would probably agree with you.  unfortunately.  most dentists, too.  i doubt if you're quite as selfish as you sound, here, friend, b/c i've seen you around, ok?  gonna take the money and move?  i don't care.  i'm not goin anywhere myself, tho.  why not volunteer here, tho?  set up something for vets, prisoners, people w/ psychiatric needs, public health project for poor people?  get 2-3 nurse practitioners and set up a rural health care clinic, and help your practitioners learn GOOD medicine.  da boyz in the guild might frown?  propbably not, but, if so, who cares? 

don't be scared, doc-tor, it's only a bee sting!

we could use professional people to help address the real problems in our society and our BODY politic, doc.  back down some people who might need to be sat down for a while.  like life.  your choice, and maybe you have family there, or a very good reason for going beyond self interest.  from what i know of you, that would not surprise me.  but please don't mock people who are, perhaps, more committed than you to solving OUR problems.  to the best of my knowledge, both you and the guy w/ the crayons are ok.  we all know that the AMA is one of the most powerful lobbies in our history.  no one can afford to hire you for more than 15 minutes, because when 2 hours are up, we owe you three years' wages, and w/out "insurance" we lose our house and/or have bill collectors on our ass for 9 years.  i'm a healer, too, but i don't charge for it.  i consider it an honor to try to help another person and share the blessings and the Juice that the universe has given me.  i can't afford to leave, but i don't want to.  i was willing to die for this mess 40 years ago and that, in itself, probably is the reason i am alive, today.  i'm as selfish as the next guy.  and yes, that can make one strong, too.  and, i made a "choice" to BE who i yam, too.  but it's not about being on top, here, w/ you, me, and the crayola kid.  it is about working together, as we have been, i would hope. plunging labor force participation?  who cares?  neither of the 3 of us is looking for a job, here, are we?  so let us not let this "divisive idea" disrupt the time we have to be and work together, b/c OUR nation needs US, gwar.  and, i know, right now, 2 outa three ain't bad. and, if you choose to go elsewhere to BE, serve, and learn, you've certainly earned the right to make that choice for yourself.  peace.

i know a lot of doctors;  they are a lot of fun, but politically, well, what would you say?  political philosophy?  nah.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:00 | 957002 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


go ahead, b/c all that is left is looters and anarchists, and people who don't "work".  well, we don't work for you, do we?  like you, we work for ourselves, first, and for each other, second. maybe, but i am not a bum or a looter, and neither is snoball.  maybe we don't freak.  maybe this crapheap is the best place to live in the world in 3 years, AGAIN after we get a few things back where they belong, b/c we will NOT let the propaganda blind us to our love of america and the brother and sisterhood we share and desire for our children.  and you wanna come back and enjoy the good life w/us and the new people's polity that we're gonna design, or die trying.  sure, doc, i'm sure that snoball and i will be just fine with that, doncha think? 

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:51 | 957092 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Admirable, but you do have to be productive for someone else to get into the gulch.

I write software, but it's one of many skills that will come in handy (to others even) in the post-crayon world.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 05:18 | 957298 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


ok, so you consider writing software to be productive.  i think what you do here is productive, sno, if that doesn't offend.  gwar, ditto.  what about geitner? bernake, the highly paid men and women at fanny and freddy, the vice-president, the mayor of some town that's broke, the governator, how productive was he, how about a student, in prison, studying law?  i really like the productive guys in CA who smog test.  the shit coming out the tailpipe is way above the exhaust standards, but the car won't pass b/c of a "visual" or "equipment"  problem. so no way yer going home with the paper which is required to pay your registration and get the yearly tag.  which is needed to drive.  every two years, the car must be smogged. well, after $1000 in repair costs, we can appeal to the dmv for relief.  very productive for "the economy and the smog shop", right?   guy earlier was frosted cuz he lived on a big street and couldn't park in front of his own house.  are people who enforce absurd rules productive?  he gats paid by the goobermint, so that makes him productive?  is homeland security productive?  how about invading iraq?  torturing people in guantanimo?  doing "elective" surgery which doesn't add 1 iota to the patients health, yet is not w/out risk to her, is that a productive thing to do, as long as the "insurance" pays?  if i put a new thermostat in my car, is that productive?  how about cooking some rice?  or cleaning the stove?  i tried to get to the values of fixing our real problem(s), but you wanna tie me up, here?

and pretend it's productive?  get a grip, sno.  please.  we all have diff skills, abilities, and talents.  just take care of sno.  i'll take care of me and gwar seems to be able to take care of gwar.  meanwhile we're seeing the Treasury of our country looted by criminals who are also pushing a button saying, now you owe us $80B/mo, because we can do this, but you can't, because we know how to keep things, yep, productive!  

so, define productive.  then tell us all why it is so necessy to be so.  constitution?  a curse around "original sin"?  michelle obama has 20 attendants, whom WE pay. if we have the money does that make it productive?  if we need to go into debt to pay them, is that the same?  more productive?  less?  are we not good commies if we don't "produce"?  what the fuk are you doing with this?  and why?  if ya just want to see what it's like to get yer styooopid ass kicked, and used to clean the fuking floor, i can do that too, ok?   trust me.  engineering will not help you with this.  you might need to be able to think straight, about values and how they apply to political and social processes.  i'm not into programming.  unprogramming is where i'm at.  if you'd like to get processed here, i'll be around, ok?  other than that, chill, dude.  i mean it, too.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:37 | 956518 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Money Mcbags has been all over this. If you elect him and his bogus party he can get unemployment down to 0% in no time with his fuck off policy.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 20:15 | 956616 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Way more interesting than dancing with the stars.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:40 | 956522 csmith
csmith's picture

why do you insist on referring to "Woods Hole" rather than Jackson Hole as the birthplace of QE2?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:45 | 956535 par4
par4's picture

It might be even worse that that. This is a little dated but still informative. <a href="">If this f**kin link works</a>

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 19:49 | 956551 Michael
Michael's picture

"And yes, the people will not forget those who actively lied to them during the greatest economic depression, when "the recovery" is discovered to have been the biggest lie in the history of the US."

One thing is for sure; The true unemployment rate is always reflected at the voting booth.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 20:05 | 956593 snowball777
snowball777's picture

In a country where 40% vote on a good day? Laughable.

If the unemployed (predominantly in the other 60%) would get off their asses and cast a(n informed) vote, they might still be able to find a job in this country.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 20:10 | 956603 Jerry Maguire
Jerry Maguire's picture

The overhang of debt is crushing the economy, the very will of people to contribute and foster growth and help each other survive and thrive.  The solution is to eliminate the debt through a constitutionally mandated jubilee:

At the same time we restore a gold standard for the dollar - at something like $27,00 per ounce.

Spread the word, before it's too late.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 20:13 | 956611 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I think you put your comma in the wrong place...otherwise there's zero incentive for someone who has no debt to 'jubilee' away to sign on to your plan.

Fuck your mulligan; be more responsible.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:00 | 956888 Jerry Maguire
Jerry Maguire's picture

Mulligan.  Golf term.  Amusing.

Even so, did you say that to Hank Paulson, Lloyd Blankfein, Jamie Dimon and the other banksters?  Maybe you did, but it had no effect.  They got their mulligan.

In a sense you're just not very bright.  You're combative, but you don't know where to direct your energy.  A jubilee is a fait d'accompli - it's already happened.  But only for the banksters.  You are powerless to stop their jubilee, but you have a load of ammo so you fire it indiscriminately at anything else you see moving. 

But the capital is already conquered.  You're shooting at people for nothing. 

I hope you don't hit anyone and kill them.  It would be a tragic waste.

I'm speaking metaphorically here, of course.

And "zero incentive"?  You can be debt free, but social unrest all around you will make your life a lot worse. 

You're very small minded.  Too bad.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:19 | 957012 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


i've been debt-free since 1986.  i don't get to shop, much,but when i do, i enjoy it, especially when i can buy even one silver dime.  it counts.  b/c i say it counts,  for me.  i don't know what the best  ideas for the poeple are, but i doubt if they are the best ideas for the bankers or the pols or the transportation industry, or the defense industry, or the medical community or the church or the chamber of commerce i would be surprised.  so what?  nobody here but us chickens and once we begin to see OUR interests, not just a a collectivity, but as PEOPLE, not jobs, not taxpayerz, not golfers, but as citizens, whatever we can salvage or re-desisign that is FAIR,  gives US our rights back,  that's what we need to start to figure out, maybe in another ten years, after everyone stops talking outa the wrong end of their digestive apparatus, ok? 

somebody's got a better approach, please advise.  if you don't, stf up and try to concentrate for an hour a day, OK?

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:22 | 957032 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


social unrest is not the problem.  lack of focus?  yes.  oh my!  what CAN we do?  uhh...focus?

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:59 | 957101 snowball777
snowball777's picture

FWIW, I don't play golf...heinous waste of greenspace for yuppie twats, in my opinion.

It wasn't my place to say that to the FIRE sector, but I certainly would have...and wouldn't have handed over the keys to the castle to the junkies in the first place. In a sense, I did say that to not participating in their fraud.

Social unrest from the twinkies who bought too much house (or 'flippers' who bought a few)? sides hurt.

You may have a point that each debtor made a small number of mistakes while the banksters made billions, but why should I incentivize a repeat offense?

My mind is big enough to grasp the concept of moral hazard and to avoid being ripped off and enslaved. How about you?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 21:07 | 956701 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Great ideas. Constitutional amendments and some structural changes are needed.

We should end the Fed. JIm Rogers and others agree. It's way overdue.

We can screw up the economy badly enouugh without their help.

They only enable the politicians to spend without raising taxes using debasement theft.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:24 | 957038 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


omg!  i'm for that shit, too!!!

right let's fukituptothemax by ourselves.  for a freaking CHANGE.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 20:15 | 956615 Hedge Hunter
Hedge Hunter's picture

Hey, it's not so bad, I love my unenjoyment checks.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:39 | 957061 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


and, you should!  i shoulda "worked" so long!  now, let's unemploy about 80% of the 4 levels of goobermint we're supporting, and see what that feels like for everybody, ok?  then, we can all flip hamburger for each other.  or give massages.  or sweep the snow off the streets with whisk brooms, or cut the grass on the meridians with nail clippers, or make peanut better with rolling pins, or direct traffic, or work in day cares and nursing homes, or deliver stuff on bikes or rickshaws, or build yoyo's, or mow tees and greens, or pump gas, or wash dishes, or do fuking laundry.  if that's where we're at, that's probably where we'd better start from. 

CA passed an $8 Billion dollar "bond authorization" in a "what would you like next?" PLEBICITE last election.  no shit.  just borrow the money and get started, then when we need more money to start laying the tracks, we'll just borrow that too, right?  nobody could argue?  you want hi-speed rail to go from hollywood to fisherman's wharf, just DO it, right? 

hypnosis?  we're gonna get spanked.  no doubtaboutit.  but this time, we're gonna learn our lesson, or somebody else is gonna hafta buy our children and tell them what to do.  any questions?

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