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Albert Edwards On The Resurgence Of The "Conspiracy Of Optimism" As Groupthink Is Back To Record Levels

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As regular readers know too well, one topic Zero Hedge enjoys ridiculing with the disdain it deserves is groupthink of any form. The phenomenon, which is nothing but transference of laziness by those who manage other people's money with complete disregard for the consequences of their actions, was among the main reasons for the Great Financial Crash.  As nobody was willing to engage in any form of critical thought, and with the market "only" going up, any investment thesis was predicated solely on what the "other guy" was doing. Of course when it all blew up, it was time to blame the evil rating agencies. After all, heaven forbid someone actually think about the logic behind the credit ratings of hundreds of billions in synthetic CDOs, or worse still, take responsibility for their own stupidity and laziness. We are now precisely in the same place we were when the market peaked last time around, with groupthink rampant, with any attempt at opposing thought squashed for fears it will end the party early, with sellside analyst optimism at all time highs, and with the administration actively encouraging rampant lies and perpetuation of the myths that take hold in the market with no factual footing whatsoever. The "conspiracy of optimism", as dubbed once by James Montier, has once again fully taken hold. As SocGen's Albert Edwards points out "despite another post mortem on forecasting failure, nothing has or will change": this is true... until the next crash. Then the finger pointing will begin anew, theatrics about the change in the Status Quo will resume, and once again the Fed will attempt to reflate the latest bubble crash. Only this time there will be no reflation, as the central planning committee's reign of terror will be over, and the fiat monetary system will have ended. Below we present Edwards' most recent solemn and very troubling thoughts on the latest break out of the great groputhink malaise, which will only last as long as the great chairsatan has some control over events. Luckily, with the amplitude from a stable market equilibrium shifting ever greater in either direction, and as the Fed's very existence (remember: the whole point of the central bank is to contain price stability) is repudiated, the time until the reset is now shorter than ever before in history.

Edwards laments:

I was leafing through a critical report into the IMF’s performance in the run-up to the financial crisis by the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF (see IMF Performance in the Run-Up to the Financial and Economic Crisis: IMF Surveillance in 2004-07 – link).

"Groupthink” mentality effectively sums up the reports criticism in one word. In Chapter 4 entitled Why Did The IMF Fail To Give Clear Warning?, the series of sub-headings reads just like my erstwhile colleague, James Montier’s papers with pronounced cognitive bias being cited as the basis of the view that almost everything in the garden was rosy.

But suppose you were a dissenter – well ... “Staff incentives were not well aligned to foster the candid exchange of ideas that is needed for good surveillance—many staff reported concerns about the consequences of expressing views contrary to those of supervisors, management, and country authorities.” Or let’s shoot the messenger!

Dissenting voices were ridiculed throughout the mid-2000s as the US and UK housing bubbles defied the pessimists’ pronouncements of collapse. For the vast majority of the analytical community, the fact that the cassandras were proved wrong gave them more and more confidence that there was, in fact, no bubble to burst at all, whereas it was clear to many that the crash would end up being all the deeper when it eventually came.

But what has changed? The new groupthink is that the Chinese economy will not crash in the same way as the US economy did in 2008. China’s own Great Moderation has continued for so long, the mainstream will only extrapolate this into the indefinite future. And in developed markets, despite two gut-wrenching equity bear markets in a decade, QE2 has taken analyst optimism back to all-time highs (see chart below).

A topic Zero Hedge presented previously is that while companies are now getting more bearish, the sellside doesn't want the party to end, and its optimism is at an all time high. The same goes for economists, who following in the footsteps of Goldman's Jan Hatzius stunning reversal in opinion, are now deliriously bullish on everything.

None of this is of course surprising: it is a matter of national interest for the banks and their employees to promptly reflate the bubble at all costs. Otherwise, the great reset will send them all packing and looking for a job that actually involves doing something socially useful. As before, Edwards believes the great wind-down on groupthink will begin with China (despite Stephen Roach's optimistic view that the entirely export-led country can promptly shift its entire economic system to one driven by the consumer class : sorry, ain't happening... not without a catastrophic global economic realignment).

So we await some sort of correction in risk assets. But is this just a technical correction within a bull market for risk assets or something more?

Personally, I would categorize the entire move up in the equity market since March 2009 as a bear market rally which at some point will fall flat on its face. Investors seem to have forgotten that in a post-bubble world, recessions become far more frequent events. Certainly in the UK I don’t have much doubt that fiscal tightening is taking us back into recession, let alone now the increasing likelihood the Bank of England will soon raise interest rates.

But it is China and the commodity markets where I remain most concerned. Many seem to have forgotten just how vicious the collapse in prices in H2 08 was – i.e. they have forgotten just how all-persuasive yet wrong the prevailing groupthink was back then.

And for those who need a natural antidote to Roach's perpetual optimism on China, here is Edwards' punchline:

Far bigger brains than my own seem pretty sure that China is a bubble destined to disappoint. Most recently I was reading a piece by Edward Chancellor of GMO entitled Entranced by China’s Bubbling Economy (see Financial Times 7 Feb – link). He points out that bubbles can be identified before they burst by using simple valuation tools. China has all the characteristics of “a truly great bubble” with the housing stock set to exceed 350% of GDP this year, the same level of Japan at the height of its real estate bubble in 1990. Construction accounts for around a quarter of China’s economic activity which Edward notes is coincidently the same level that Ireland attained before it’s dramatic explosion. Oops!

Meanwhile, the major external imbalances that reflect the easy money policies that ruined the US, UK and Eurozone peripheral economies persist. The Chinese trade deficit with the US reached new highs in 2010 (see chart below). In many ways the persistence of the huge surpluses in China, Germany and Japan suggests that nothing much has changed. Economic implosion in the indebted countries has been prevented by the public sector simply replacing the excess debt of the private sector. The solution to the private sector debt excesses has been more debt and monetization of that debt. The real issues have been simply avoided.

But at least one consensus trend trade has just bitten the dust. Emerging markets had a fantastic decade run because they were cheap (see chart below). But as ever, this outperformance was extrapolated way into the future. Groupthink failed yet again.

The one traditional refrain on Wall Street has been to "never fight the Fed".. or by implication the great worldwide central banker cartel, which are now interchangeable as all the money printers are all in on the Ponzi. Yet with the massive moves in gold and silver, the market is telling us that ever more are taking the other side of that trade. Perhaps the only place where "this time it is different" is that the Fed is now losing. As Bernanke is now openly monetizing every dollar in gross issuance, what else does he have in his bag of trick? We contend that there is nothing left. And with QE3, QE4, etc. just a variation on a theme of dollar destruction, the end game is now here. Only this time even the Fed knows the outcome is given.

So let the groupthink have its last moment in the sun for a few more week, or months, or at even years. Those who wish a return to a normal and efficient market system are already putting in place the structural supports for a systemic "Volkswagen" on the lazy parade of groupthink Koolaid drinkers, who will "never see it coming." Only this time, the resulting squeeze, and subsequent reset, will make even the Volkswagen chart from late 2008 pale in comparison.

[vow.gif]

 


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Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Groupthink=circle jerk

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

The "Powerlessness of Positive Thinking" is the new reality.

"Confidence" is a subjective mindset, intangible and powerless in the long term.

Yet, the mainstream media has circled the wagons and guarded this concept to a point of schizophrenia.

Tangible objective reality always wins in the end.

I see a new book in the making.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 18:39 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

 

Forget "Conspiracy of Optimism" Michael... Check out my digital doppelganger from yesterday. A member for 2 weeks 7 days... WTF???? Who is this guy? Anyone?
by Zer0head 
on Fri, 02/25/2011 - 22:16
#998928

Whack!!! damn cat.... did I say that? so sorry, it's  back the lair for me...I promise next time I'll be a good koppy-cat...promise

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 18:40 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Repeat.

Watch out people we have doubles!!!!

 

Things could get interesting here... hate to say it but until Marla straightens this identity theft out don't believe a thing I say... (as if you did! :)

Later guys... oh be sure to check out histories first!!!

Seriously!

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 20:32 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

I'd love for someone to dopplegang me, my Avatar is custom made. Could you imagine someone lifting it and plastering it on every thread topic? I purposely don't comment on many threads and it would be a dead giveaway seeing that Nancy Pelosi mug on those.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 19:20 | Link to Comment anarkst
anarkst's picture

It's not group-think, it's grand-theft.  People will do everything for money.

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:14 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

zerohedge and the tylers, are going to rule the world†

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:19 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

PsyOps!  Optimist groupthink is nothing but BS trying to keep us in equities!  Danger...

...

O/T, but, just a little.  Anyone else read the Barrons interview w/ Stephanie Pomboy?  Bearish as ever.  She is also smoking hot, it would be hard for even us happily married guys in our 50s to push her away!

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:52 | Link to Comment living on the edge
living on the edge's picture

She needs to quit calling and texting me!!

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 19:32 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

dcrb: talking about psyops--who reads?--oh never mind, I only read Pomboy's articles for the content.

We laughed and laughed at her price for her "service".  Then comes out on the chaise longue and ... well ... wow.  Picture might require sub. not my fault!

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122912505428802977.html#articleTabs_...

- Ned

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 20:53 | Link to Comment t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

What is the price for her service?

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:30 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Remember Challenger blowing up in 1986?

Classic group-think. 

The engineers that designed the O-ring seals, when asked, said unequivocally "DO NOT LAUNCH" and said specifically that the temps at the launch pad could cause the O-ring seals to contract and leak fuel.

NASA ignored them; after all, America was watching, Christa McAuliffe's Parents were in the stands, all the school children were watching, "We must launch - we must ignore reality."

BOOM

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 18:44 | Link to Comment jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Yep, and my dad told the GM engineers (him being one at the Desert Proving Grounds, before they moved it to mexico) that at inflating at 1/20th of a second, and using rocket fuel to do so, that airbags were going to kill people.

They didn't listen to him, and we know the rest. Now this was of course AFTER they were in production for a couple of years, but BEFORE the redesigns when the crap hit the fan.

Groupthink, it's what's for breakfast, lunch, AND dinner in bizarro monetary world.

 

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 22:01 | Link to Comment Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

Telling people what they want to hear is the surest path to success. I suspect it has always been this way, but it really seemed to take off when Bill Clinton showed us the way. It seemed like the only thing that mattered any more was what you said, who you said it to, and when you said it. Of course, I was living in the DC area for 14 years spanning the whole Clinton administration, so it was really in my face.

It reached a peak when people elected Obama knowing nothing about him because of rabid positive groupthink. Given the growing disappointment from the impossibility of hiding the reality of Obama's failure and his similarity to Bush - the subject of rabid negative groupthink, I think we may have seen the nadir of groupthink, but it may be too late.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 20:04 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Feinman took NASA apart like a chicken.  See his solo appendix on the Challenger report.

I use his discussion of the flight software guys, who had/have the attitude "a failure in simulation kills us as much as a failure in a flight" to talk to our engineers. 

- Ned

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:34 | Link to Comment Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

"Certainty generally is illusion, and repose is not the destiny of Man"
-- O W Holmes

I expect this will hold true for the lucky top-pickers who make it out the door first, as well as the PM hoarders that see a shiny future in their stash. Real wealth has nothing to do with speculation or gambling, no matter how hard we try to convince ourselves it is so.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:33 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Army Psychological Operations used on U S Congressmen

Allegations surfaced in a Rolling Stone article today that members of the military used psychological operations on U.S. dignitaries in Afghanistan in order to get more money for the war. Msnbc’s Lawrence O’Donnell has an exclusive interview with reporter Michael Hastings.

 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/41770019#41770019

 

**********************************************************************************************************************

 

 

Solicitation Number:

RTB220610

Notice Type:

Sources Sought

Synopsis:

Added: Jun 22, 2010 1:42 pm Modified: Jun 22, 2010 2:07 pmTrack Changes

0001- Online Persona Management Service. 50 User Licenses, 10 Personas per user.
Software will allow 10 personas per user, replete with background , history, supporting details, and cyber presences that are technically, culturally and geographacilly consistent. Individual applications will enable an operator to exercise a number of different online persons from the same workstation and without fear of being discovered by sophisticated adversaries. Personas must be able to appear to originate in nearly any part of the world and can interact through conventional online services and social media platforms. The service includes a user friendly application environment to maximize the user's situational awareness by displaying real-time local information.

0002- Secure Virtual Private Network (VPN). 1 each
VPN provides the ability for users to daily and automatically obtain randomly selected
IP addresses through which they can access the internet. The daily rotation of
the user s IP address prevents compromise during observation of likely or
targeted web sites or services, while hiding the existence of the operation. In
addition, may provide traffic mixing, blending the user s traffic with traffic from
multitudes of users from outside the organization. This traffic blending provides
excellent cover and powerful deniability. Anonymizer Enterprise Chameleon or equal

 

0003- Static IP Address Management. 50 each
Licence protects the identity of government agencies and enterprise
organizations. Enables organizations to manage their persistent online personas
by assigning static IP addresses to each persona. Individuals can perform
static impersonations, which allow them to look like the same person over time.
Also allows organizations that frequent same site/service often to easily switch IP
addresses to look like ordinary users as opposed to one organization. Anonymizer IP Mapper License or equal

 

0004- Virtual Private Servers, CONUS. 1 each
Provides CONUS or OCONUS points of presence locations that are setup for
each customer based on the geographic area of operations the customer is
operating within and which allow a customer?s online persona(s) to appear to
originate from. Ability to provide virtual private servers that are procured using
commercial hosting centers around the world and which are established
anonymously. Once procured, the geosite is incorporated into the network and
integrated within the customers environment and ready for use by the customer.
Unless specifically designated as shared, locations are dedicated for use by
each customer and never shared among other customers. Anonymizer Annual Dedicated CONUS Light Geosite or equal

 

0005- Virtual Private Servers, OCONUS. 8 Each
Provides CONUS or OCONUS points of presence locations that are setup for
each customer based on the geographic area of operations the customer is
operating within and which allow a customer?s online persona(s) to appear to
originate from. Ability to provide virtual private servers that are procured using
commercial hosting centers around the world and which are established
anonymously. Once procured, the geosite is incorporated into the network and
integrated within the customers environment and ready for use by the customer.
Unless specifically designated as shared, locations are dedicated for use by
each customer and never shared among other customers. Anonymizer Annual Dedicated OCONUS Light Geosite or equal

 

0006- Remote Access Secure Virtual Private Network. 1 each
Secure Operating Environment provides a reliable and protected computing
environment from which to stage and conduct operations. Every session uses a
clean Virtual Machine (VM) image. The solution is accessed through sets of
Virtual Private Network (VPN) devices located at each Customer facility. The
fully-managed VDI (Virtual Desktop Infrastructure) is an environment that allows
users remote access from their desktop into a VM. Upon session termination,
the VM is deleted and any virus, worm, or malicious software that the user inadvertently downloaded is destroyed. Anonymizer Virtual Desktop Infrastructure (VDI) Solution or equal.

Contracting Office Address:

2606 Brown Pelican Ave.
MacDill AFB, Florida 33621-5000
United States

Place of Performance:

Performance will be at MacDIll AFB, Kabul, Afghanistan and Baghdad, Iraq.
MacDill AFB , Florida 33679
United States

Primary Point of Contact.:

Russell Beasley,

Contracting Officer

russell.beasley-02@macdill.af.mil

Phone: (813) 828-4729

Fax: (813) 828-5111

 

https://www.fbo.gov/index?_cview=1&id=d88e9d660336be91552fe8c1a51bacb2&mode=form&s=opportunity&tab=core

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Is this a conspiracy theory of optimism or a conspiracy fact of optimism? Isn't it interesting how we can accept the existence of some conspiracies and not others equally as valid?

What are we afraid of?

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:42 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwu1niQqwKA

 

FDR The only thing we have to fear is fear it self and spiders,snakes, wherewolves...

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:18 | Link to Comment ft65
ft65's picture

Take a look at the poster "JW n FL" posting on his own web site (handle ^TrInItY) read a few posts and then disclaimer. www.godlikeproductions.com. Nice stuff (not!)

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:24 | Link to Comment Misean
Misean's picture

ACK! A conspiracy post on another conspiracy on a conspiracy post!!!

Anyone have a scorecard thingy I can use???

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 20:41 | Link to Comment The Grip
The Grip's picture

Quack fucking city! Thanks for snapping my ZH buzz for today...

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 21:29 | Link to Comment prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

scratching at the truth, consider it conspiracy fiat, as long as everybody is on the same side of this bull market trade, that lacks technicals to support it. 

 

i see shocking conspiracies when i started questioning everything, the moon landing hoax, the man made global warming through co2, aid virus never has been isolated, reproduced, photographed, 9-11 controlled domolition, and building 7, 7/7 bombing, madrid, oklahoma city, jewish nazi's conspiracy

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:38 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LK8sxngSWaU

Public Enemy-Don't Believe The Hype

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:21 | Link to Comment ft65
ft65's picture

JW n FL does this document mean anything to you. To save you reading it, I'll post the last two paragraphs...

http://www.ftc.gov/os/comments/spyware/040312lucas.pdf

Re: FTC Public Workshop: "Monitoring Software On Your PC: Spyware, Adware, And Other Software" (April 19, 2004)

Advertising software companies whose products fall within my proposed definition of 'adware' should not be penalized for creating innovative new technologies that allow advertisers the opportunity to more easily reach targeted consumers. The onslaught of 'anti advertising' software that is now being marketed has had a serious impact on Internet advertising, and that commercial industry is now being forced to create new and innovative methods to deliver their message to consumers.

Advertising software when constructed and distributed in a responsible manner is the very future of Internet advertising. While there should certainly be clear guidelines establishing what is, and is not, acceptable when it comes to this new technology, we should be very careful not to penalize legitimate companies who are willing to follow the rules -- less we unfairly stifle an already weakened industry.

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 18:19 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I will say it again... if you would like to know who I am... why dont you just ask?

 

I understand you are a coward, thusly you must hide behind your mask for comfort... I dont fault you, it is typical.

 

So, coward... since you dont know how to use Google to your own benefit... it is so very complicated for some I understand... would you like to know who I am?

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 21:30 | Link to Comment Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

??

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 21:42 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Sorry VI... this idiot stalker of mine thinks I am someone else named Jason...

He cant find JWnFL in google to figure out that is not the case and above and beyond that as many times as my name has been mentioned here... he still has had no luck figuring out exactly who I am... thusly he is lazy or stupid or both... sorry for the mess, it seems to be disrupting daily business as of late.. from the posts above.

 

Other than that BTFD's!!!!

 

How are You Fine Sir? any thoughts on the RollingStone piece? http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/another-runaway-general-army-deploys-psy-ops-on-u-s-senators-20110223 I wish I could say I am in some way... any way... suprised by the news.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 01:16 | Link to Comment Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Sorry to see good energy go to waste, my man.  And if the Rolling Stones comment was directed my way, I would just have to say that I'm laughing. Reminds me of that scene out of the Clooney movie where he pushes the goat over.  Bring in the Senator.  Fucking ridiculous.  Cheers.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 16:46 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I spit out coffee, I needed that.. Thanks!

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:40 | Link to Comment S.P.Q.R.
S.P.Q.R.'s picture

 As Bernanke is now openly monetizing every dollar in gross issuance, what else does he have in his bag of trick? We contend that there is nothing left. And with QE3, QE4, etc. just a variation on a theme of dollar destruction, the end game is now here. Only this time even the Fed knows the outcome is given.

 

You have markets priced in dollars and a central bank driving currency to destruction so why is it suprising markets, when priced in fiat money, are seen to rise? The markets are not the bubble, fiat money is. This insanity will continue ad infinitum until enevitable collapse which could take alot longer then we think. Dow 50,000 anyone?

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 21:40 | Link to Comment prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

sure it'll get to dow 50,000 when gold goes there with it.  i'd place my bet that it goes to 5k before 50k

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture


 

China Law Blog 

 


China Manufacturing: "We're Bringing It Back Home."

I know many of our posts of late have been fairly negative on China, and I really wish this one were not, but I really have no choice but to "call 'em like I see 'em" We are constantly writing articles on what country is going to be the "next China" and I have mostly been talking up Vietnam as that choice. See, for instance, the following posts:

I had a revelation today. The United States is the Next China. How could I have missed it?

There are many articles out today on how manufacturing jumped unexpectedly in both the United States (and in England) and most attribute that to a rising economy. I agree, but I also think/know that at least some of that is due to American companies choosing to expand their manufacturing in the United States (as opposed to China) or simply shutting down their operations in China.

Here is what we have been working on JUST THIS YEAR:

  • We are working on shutting down a large American service company that has been in China for more than five years. The reason for closing is that "we never felt our Chinese employees were on board with our organization" and we would rather run everything from outside China.  
  • We are working on extricating an American company from a manufacturing Joint Venture in China. The reasons are two-fold.  One, the Chinese joint venture partner never cooperated and treated the joint venture like anything other than an extension of his own fiefdom and the cost savings just were not as great as expected, when productivity and quality problems were taken into account.
  • A manufacturing company that is shutting down all operations and "bringing it all back home." Again, the cost savings were never as high as expected and the U.S. facilities are just "so much better and easier."

I am not saying that every company is going to be closing down their China operations and going home, because that is certainly not going to be the case. Indeed, on the flip side, we are getting a ton of work from companies seeking to tap China's consumer and B2B market. We also are getting a steady flow of companies seeking to make low to mid range goods in China. Where I see the "return home" phenomenon most likely to occur is in difficult to manufacture goods where the U.S. company has existing U.S. operations so closing down China will not involve building a new factory anywhere else, but simply hiring back already-trained, already-skilled workers.  

This is a new thing and so I am dying to know what you are seeing out there? 

 

http://www.chinalawblog.com/2011/02/china_manufacturing_were_bringing_it...

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

All well and good, best of luck to their repatriation project. However, you underestimate the Chinese if you think they will just wave goodbye and holler "Next!". I see evidence that China has active efforts to destabilize and eliminate what remains of our domestic manufacturing industry. These efforts involve buy-outs via Chinese controlled front companies, blatant theft of contracts from small businesses via loss leader pricing, and political influence in regulatory decisions that will adversely affect the business climate for small companies. Their allies in this long term strategy are the multi-national corporations -- the ones we see represented on Mr. Obama's "get well" committee.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:52 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

It is relatively easy to predict how stocks and oil will behave this year and also 2012:

Stocks will go down because of recession

There will be no big inflation because of recession

Oil will continue way up -despite recession- because of punctuated supply disruptions as instability spreads in the oil producing countries, one by one, making the whole supply country base much less stable and output smaller.

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

The graphs also logically follow from a response of global system to sharp crisis event as happened in 2008-March 2009. First, everyone cooperatively reacts in a linear way- markets move exponentially back up. There is one typical hickup on its way- 2010 Apr-August dip. After that, where we are now, the linear cooperative response is over, actors start to desynchronize, de cooperate and put own interests more and more in front of global concerns. That leads already today to market drop, then to sharp drop, then to fluctuations around low levels in 2012-2013 in a decooperating, antagonistic world ( 7000-8000 DJIA) until some new form of cooperation is found that would prop stocks up (everyone in war with Iran in 2014?) .

China is on its way to crack down on its middle class and nationalization as a result of recession and Western stimulus packages slowly comes to its shores. Somewhere around 2012-2013 its policy will start to change markedly.

As there will be recession in the USA in 2012-2013 (minus 2-4% GDP drop) , dollar will not hyperinflate as prices will remain supressed and printing will subside as global inflation will threaten coming back to the USA, or will come, so interest rates will have to be raised during recession.

So stocks will go down instead, and oil will stay high in dollar terms with rather strong dollar. Not good for anyone, including Chinese.

 

 

 

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:16 | Link to Comment zaknick
zaknick's picture

That's some good stuff you smoking, Doobie brother!

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:37 | Link to Comment Spalding_Smailes
Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

There's some good stuff in this presentation and in the other videos on the page...

 

http://www.cheviot.co.uk/sound-money-conference/presentations/confessions-of-a-former-bond-bug

 

You may need to watch Sandeep Jaitly's presentation more than once.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Misean
Misean's picture

The Biggus Americanus Dickheadus strutting around with his gaggle of yes man all singing "My future's so bright, I need to wear shades..." is hardly a conspiracy. More like the regimentation of the youth indoctrinariate and society in general.

One day soon, they'll march off a cliff and the fiat money safety bag will simply fail.

I'll be the one chuckling in the hermit cave, pulling desicated bird bones from my scraggly beard...

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:08 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

They spend $12m a year in Afganistan.. in Pys-Ops... but nothing here at home, they are not allowed to use such things on the people of America... why would they have to with the natural market saturation provided by everyone else?

 

Everyone else being all of the media outlets that give them face time...

 

Them being... Banks or any kind of Financial Company inclusive of the Stock Market / Markets in General... leed, follow or sit home and be brainwashed by the sheer amount of shit thrown at you.

 

I would like to see a number for hours of hype a day being forced down the American Peoples Throats on TV / Cable / Inter Webs... GO TEAM!!!! mean while The Ber-Nake is printing shit out of thin air... for which the American People are Stupid Taxxed... I used to say we paid the interest, thru inflation and pass thru... but I was bashed the other day for dumbing it down.. but in the end "We the People" pick up the tab for the Printing in a Million and 1 ways.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:15 | Link to Comment Misean
Misean's picture

"pick up the tab for the Printing in a Million and 1 ways."

Million and 1...giggle...how pre-Bernutty of you!

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:26 | Link to Comment ft65
ft65's picture

Quoting JW n FL

>>They spend $12m a year in Afganistan.. in Pys-Ops... but nothing here at home, they are not allowed to use such things on the people of America..

Who are you trying to kid, http://www.godlikeproductions.com is very well known to you... Trinity!

 

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 18:23 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by JW n FL
on Sat, 02/26/2011 - 14:33
#1000087

 

Army Psychological Operations used on U S Congressmen

Allegations surfaced in a Rolling Stone article today that members of the military used psychological operations on U.S. dignitaries in Afghanistan in order to get more money for the war. Msnbc’s Lawrence O’Donnell has an exclusive interview with reporter Michael Hastings.

 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/41770019#41770019

*******************************************************************************

That quote way up above you here from earlier just skipped right past you didnt it???

for the record you are whats wrong with the Country, stupid people are the problem... of course I am guilty of not demanding that you idiots be educated, thusly your ignorance is my fault.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 19:26 | Link to Comment pacu44
pacu44's picture

They do it... It may not show up in some accounting column, but it is done...

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 19:37 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by JW n FL
on Sat, 02/26/2011 - 14:33
#1000087

 

Army Psychological Operations used on U S Congressmen

Allegations surfaced in a Rolling Stone article today that members of the military used psychological operations on U.S. dignitaries in Afghanistan in order to get more money for the war. Msnbc’s Lawrence O’Donnell has an exclusive interview with reporter Michael Hastings.

 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/41770019#41770019

************************************************************************

I guess you missed this post from way up top too...

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

If ZH dislikes groupthink of any form then beware the drearying sameness and conformity of the non mainstream community.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:08 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

there are not enough smart people here... to where you could call ZH a group... we are the .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%er's!

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:46 | Link to Comment ft65
ft65's picture

JW n FL, I can vouch that you are very smart, especially with your gift at controlling other people's computers, with or without the owners consent...

Remember this? What have you been doing over in the last 7 years?

http://www.ftc.gov/os/comments/spyware/040312lucas.pdf

I'll paste a different section of a document that has continually come back to haunt you. ZH readers may be interested to know just how smart yo are...

As someone "in the industry," I wish to  submit for your review a brief (but necessary) description of the actual difference between 'adware' and 'spyware,' together with an explanation of why that distinction  is extremely important in the present controversy that has generated so much public debate.

 

 

 

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:55 | Link to Comment ft65
ft65's picture

And goes one

This, of course, is where the term 'spyware' takes on particular significance.  The term 'spy' has a menacing connotation for most people.  Even though most 'adware' actually does no spying, the "anti-advertising industry" advises the public that their privacy is at risk from what is mostly a rather benign advertising software package.  In my opinion, at least half of all the 'facts' reported by even the most reputable 'anti virus' companies regarding advertising software are  either untrue or half-truths.  This is because it is obviously in their own financial interest to foster fear on the public mind so that it generates demand  for anti-virus software.  The fact is if you are in the 'anti advertising' industry, the word 'spyware' sells (and that means money and profits for those so-called "anti-virus" companies).

JW n FL knows exactly who I'm talking to GLP ^TrInItY^

So can you tell us about HB Gary / MacDill, right down your street (in more ways than one!)

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 18:28 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

who do you think I am, maybe I can google the name you are looking for and help you find him... considering you cant find me... I can only assume that you may have over looked finding who it is you are looking for.

 

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=%5ETrInItY%5E

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Jason+Lucas+C2+Media+Ltd.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:03 | Link to Comment MarcusAurelius
MarcusAurelius's picture

Well....that is what bubbles are all about aren't they. It is not only deceptive practices by the bubble blowers, but the fools that think they are all going to get wealthy by arriving late to the mania. This is where the transfer of money comes from. The blatent creation of perceived wealth through the ponzi of asset inflation. Nothing is actually produced and no intrinsic wealth is created within the society that under goes this credit expansion.

   Yes...very soon this refaltion made of the same cock and bull nonesense that caused the first one to explode will do the same to this bubble. What happens in all these cases especially since 1994 is the fact that all these fund managers think they have their bets hedged against major loss. When all markets move relatively in synch this is a sign that credit and leverage are still dominating the market place which means the very same thing it did back four years ago. That being that speculative investment is once again flooding the world. It will have the same ending as there was absolutley nothing produced to fill any demand. This is simply and enormous chasing returns scenario that will end very badly. Everyone is desperate to make up for the losses of four years ago and that is why they are ratcheting up record levels of leverage yet again. All right in front of the very people that swore this would never happen again. Really? How woefully short memory is?

    Perhaps people will finally realize that houses are meant to live in....not to be flipped ,ike burgers in the every increasing attempt to stick a greater fool with the loss. Perhaps the lesson will finally sink in the price to earnings really do matter in stocks and that the markets can't reward you forever. Perhaps there will be a realization that a society can only get wealthy from producing or manufacturing products the world needs. Just maybe there will come a realization that "doing unto your neighbor as you would have them do unto you" really does matter and that "Stealing" is not a good way to get wealthy for anyone?

    However I doubt it......

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:14 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Don't fight the Fed, end the Fed and stiff the Fed.

Happy talkers are in overdrive. QE 3 will cause run on U$D.

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:46 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

One must ask oneself, what created the American economic miracle?  Likewise, one must ask oneself, what created the so-called Chinese miracle?  Because you’ve got Kentucky Fried Chicken does not mean that you have a free enterprise economic system.

IMHO, simply transferring the physical base of the American miracle to China by multinational corporations and financiers looking for quick profit in a land without  individual freedom and the environment of property rights that created the Founders’ America and her miraculous standard of living does not make a Chinese miracle.

American Government, unfortunately, allowed financiers such as Paul Warburg, Robert Rubin,  Henry Kissinger and Lawrence Summers to destroy, dismantle and physically outsource the fruits of the American Dream to China.

“American government,” said Rose Wilder Lane, “is not an Authority; it has no control over individuals and no responsibility for their affairs.  American Government is a permission which free individuals grant to certain men to use force in certain necessary and strictly limited ways; a permission which Americans can always withdraw from American Government.”

It is time for Americans to clear out the international financiers, the welfare statists and the collectivists and realize that only freedom and self-responsibility have worked for the betterment of man.  The attempt to make man free was almost unheard of until 1776.

Opportunity is dying in America because of government and Fed intervention.

Says Robert J. Ringer in Restoring the American Dream: “The early generations in this country laid the foundation for the greatest advances in the history of mankind—both technological and sociological—prior to the Federal Reserve Act (the key to inflation), the Sixteenth Amendment (the institution of the income taxes), the New Deal and the Great Society.  All of the latter (including the Bernanke-Greenspan Destruction of Free Markets) have helped lead to the destruction of a way of life that was so magnificent that people from all over the world yearned to share it.”

Let Americans restore their miracle and let China, with her Communist government and quasi-capitalism working in partnership with despotic American criminals, create her own miracle—if she can. 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

True that. In addition, the group think hopium here assumes that these revolutions will produce "democracy" which will be good for the economy.

The revolutionaries will try and make sure of one thing for sure- a higher standard of living for them. This will mean higher oil prices are the norm. They will be saying to the US more often "get your own, keep your hands off mine".

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 17:25 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

America is being shut down to divert vital resources to grow China for the next 100 yr.

The international bankers have no obligation or loyalty to any country despite what they project.

We was robbed.

 

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 18:06 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

Dead-on.

International bankers, multi-national corporations have allegiance to no county colors other than the color of money.

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 21:17 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

remember Tricky Dicky, the (republican) president who opened up China for business, and removed the dollar from the gold standard, and had ole Kissinger as his national security advisor??

yeah.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 17:49 | Link to Comment sellstop
sellstop's picture

JR,

You are right.

We are the government and we have been asleep.

The awakening is coming.

I hope we aren't too grouchy when we get up from this nap!

gh

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 20:26 | Link to Comment Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

While I can appreciate the undertones of freedom and personal responsibility in your post, as well as the disgust of offshoring the "American miracle" to benefit international corporations and the banks that provide their financing, it was the highly regimented economy of World War II, and events in it's aftermath (smoldering European production capacity), that produced "the golden age" of American economic prosperity. "Golden age" only because the prosperity was more evenly distributed than, say, the '80s-'90s boom times that emerged out of the stagflation of the '70s.

It was in some period past the end of WW2 where the "interventionists" (those who wanted America to join the WW2) recognized the profit opportunity, not only of endless war, in replacing relatively expensive American labor with it's cheaper counterparts abroad... and became "internationalists" or "globalists".

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 21:58 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

JR

The miracle of America was private enterprise (individuals) flourished with the freedom of the suffocation of authorities (Govts) in Europe they fled here to escape. It was nothing (fuk all) to do with the US Govt or the pompous pontificating Founding Fathers because there was no US Govt, it was barely 1% of the economy.

The miracle of China was from a 100% State controlled economy which was totally bankrupt, on its last breaths and having killed 10's of millions of Chinese people that the Govt got out the fuking way and allowed private enterprise to flourish.

The lessons are crystal clear. Get Govt out of the way. Individualism beats both centralism and collectivism at wealth creation, progress for humanity and anyhting else you care to mention. 

Your Founding Fathers were as bigger idiots as the great philosophers of Greece and every other idiot that believes in Govt. 

Govt is the big lie. So is the Law. So is the Police. So is having to have a military.

Freedom is the miracle... freedom is the only miracle needed, society does the rest.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 01:41 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

Zero Govt, well said but we cannot have freedom without a way to protect it.

If the young men in Libya throw out Gaddafi, all the Libyans can have freedom for a few weeks.  But if they can’t agree upon a system of government that will protect one another and that will put their future in their hands, they will again find themselves subjects of a dictator or a foreign power.

America’s Founders put together a meticulous system of checks and balances to protect freedom—encompassed in a written document that provided that the governed would be protected from tyranny. This system protected minority viewpoints and the new freedoms that were gained through the Revolutionary War.

These were brilliant men who drew from the accumulated experiences of the Greeks and Romans and the years of progress that had been made to date by the British.

The Constitution built all these into law.  Freedom cannot be protected without law and a shared agreement to follow a system of laws.

When the globalists Kissinger and Rubin made pacts with the Red Chinese to replace “Made in the U.S.A.” with “Made in China” they forgot to insist on democracy for the Chinese people. Pseudo capitalism  can never give the spring to invention that our Founding Fathers gave to Americans when they included  in the United States Constitution the provision “to promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries.”

This right of inventors is uniquely American and from it America reaped the spectacular results that are now being made in China and unloaded off her ships onto our shores.  A 1997 study of the inventors honored in the National Inventors Hall of Fame in Akron, Ohio, revealed that 91% of the world’s greatest inventors worked in America and only 9% in other countries. Freedom and America’s superior patent system are what gave men the incentive to burn the midnight oil for a chance to own a property right in their own invention. 

Nor is it told of the Globalists’ plans to give away U.S. patents, or the fact that by 2006, the U.S. Patent Office had placed 1,271,000 patent applications on the internet, creating a gold mine for China to steal U.S. innovations and get to market quickly.  Have we grown so blind to freedom that we no longer can price its value?

According to www.worldtribune this past week:  “Beijing’s new turn is loaded with risk. The history of Chinese innovation during the current boom is miserable. Eighty percent of China’s major firms do not have R&D at all. One reason may be it has been so easy to rent or steal needed foreign technologies. But there may be even more important — if difficult to evaluate — cultural factors.”

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 07:28 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

The revolutions in Libya etc will be completely wasted if a new Govt structure is built. Govt is the problem, not the solution. The people of Libya must protest against the new formation of a new Govt (ponzi scheme). That is the real fight, to retain the power of the people in the people, not have it siphoned away to a new parasite structure.

I agree the Founding Fathers were clever men but they, like the Greek philosophers were too stupid to realise the structural flaw is Govt (the authority model) itself. The probel with the model is it is a monopoly power structure, not a competitive structure. All monpolies, public or private, produce the same result: corruption, 3rd rate crap and parasites.

You allude to The Constitution being clever. It is a piece of paper. Like the Law it is just a written word, not a working model. No piece of paper however wise the words means jack to parasites, they just drive a horse and coaches around the document and through it (see washington right now). The Constitution stops nobody, the Law stops nobody, because it's not a working model.

Only freedom (of society and markets) are a working model that delivers unfailingly. All authority structures (central control etc) fail miserably, without fail. 

Govt and Law does not work.

Freedom does.

History teaches us this in 1,000 ways, in every country, every time it's practiced.

So the way to "protect freedom" when the revolution comes is to stop the re-formation of the shit hole called "democratic government". We stop the resurrection of Club Parasite. We call for freedom, not the rebirth of a failed monopoly authority structure that perverts our freedom everytime it's situated. No more failed model called Govt, no more Govt problems, no more parasites living on/off societies back.

Welcome to a free society, the human species acting naturally without a ponzi scheme on its back.

No Govt, no legislators, no Law, no Police, no Courts or Judges, no lawyers, no Govt Depts no any monopoly power structure.... just pure freedom for society and free markets

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 21:39 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Nice comment JR. Unfortunately, until we can come up with a working model for minimum government that incorporates these ideas and provides a viable defense for them as well, it's just pissin' into the wind.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 16:49 | Link to Comment raya123
raya123's picture

If you're watching oil prices you may want to check these breaking news articles. Tehran is in the process of sabotaging oil supplies for their own gain.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/middleeast/27iraq.html?partner=r...

http://www.debka.com/article/20710/

 

Presumably toward the same end, Al-Qaeda is also calling for the ouster of ruling elites in both Saudi Arabia and Yemen:

http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE71P04420110226

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jf6pRbeqhpL...

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 21:40 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Please keep the jewish propaganda in Israel. Thanks.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 17:08 | Link to Comment Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Groupthink is the best thing in the world according to everyone I know.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 17:09 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

been cut off .  parking lot access presently. 

it is kinda nice yet even more limited,  nice.

anyway,  more fresh air and better coffee.

notice the outright lies flourishing on the msm. 

outright and shameless.  they have taken to actually

constructing narratives and images that have no basis

in fact or any logical or sane interpretation of information

available via any possible perspective in the universe. 

pure tangential fantasy to avoid recognition of the elephant

in the room.  they are making up "facts" now.  the media,

mainstream, has become a virtual and perpetual purgatory

unto itself and inviting the lost to lose their lives ther in

where you can find many friends and fiends.   like children of the

corn or something?  especially pbs lately, no?  and obviously fox, etc.

ongoing.

chin up anyway i say. 

case in point,  pbs referred to the protests in wisconsin as predominantly

anti union the other evening, and in passing so as to entirely misrepresent

the situation.  followed by "heavy" budgetary debate.  never mentioning

the dollar, the fed or anything to do with the actual problem. 

full court dumbing down and diversion press upon us.  and jim ending

the show with the "honor roll".  that would be the untimely dead .

usually between 19 and say 40 years old, while his ninnies claptrap

distraction and speculative delusion and other nonsense just prior.

shameless avoidance of the truth, that is where the money is.

the fiat money

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 17:18 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Must listen to, Jim Rickards KWN: Jim Rickards

---Davos > G-20 > IMF = The "Trifekta". Trifekta now has a detailed plan to roll out IMF SDR plan to replace USD as WRC over time

---IMF SDRs to be rolled out as an IMF QE and will be a fiat currency. No timeline, but $100 T over 10 years?

---Oil price to go up but can/will be suppressed to mitigate effects

---Fed QE 3 will be continuation of QE 2.

---The Fed is just "a large propaganda machine" now prepping markets for QE 3. (btfd!)

---Gold, Silver physical markets will cause the paper to implode.

---Arbitage of paper and physical PMs will blow up the paper market, "just matter of time"

---Reminded KWN the currency getting smaller, not gold price getting bigger, nothing on horizon to change that course

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 21:56 | Link to Comment prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

oh ya, that was a good one, just linked to it from gata today, silver shortage coming soon

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 00:03 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

he said sdrs backed by the balance sheets of bankrupt

financial institutions?  yea, he did.   one big, giant, holy cow  ...

wow.... just bullshit.. ongoing.   did he realize the

total bullshit he was speaking at that moment?  otherwise i like

this guy,  but like niall ferguson, he has one suspect foot

in the pie, so it goes.  not the place , here?, to accuse niall

of being a historian for hire or world class troll or mi5,6, etc... all good

fascist go to heaven........ captured, but with a possible extension worth

destroying en mass.  he does support taxation of some sort?  no?

sell it all off and then tax them into their graves is the idea i think?

or so i imagined in 2008.   so many possibilities it hurts.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

The value equation of dirt cheap Eastern labor vs. higher productivity in West is balancing. $12 an hour and low benefits + productivity + less management hassles (which mean added cost there) is becoming worthwhile to repatriate.

The American wages will trend down another couple of bucks while Eastern wages rise a tad further but the trend is unmistakable Spaulding.

 My son is 17 and a coder/SQL. He is doing ad hoc contract jobs and has already been offered a job when he graduates. The American companies he speaks with tell him exactly what I said above. I see that too on my Health Marketing business working with pharmaceuticals.

 I read the comment below mine about China not agreeing to this and causing trouble. EXACTLY. Watch the Year of the Ram (2015) for a Korea conflict widening out into WWIII. The coming regional ME war will also be nasty, but not the big one...

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 19:05 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

$12/h for that on contract???

 

that's junk money - no wonder they want unions dead

 

 

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 22:01 | Link to Comment prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

200$ a barrel oil that is coming is going to have unintended good consequences for american manufacturing, cause a lot of the stuff china is making is so cheap that once transportation is figured in, the midwest looks like a great place to manufacture it for less.  i just interviewed for a mulit national-- increasing manufacturing in WI --for cheap consumer products

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Scottj88
Scottj88's picture

Invest in mining equities!!

Such as Great Panther...

http://thehardrightedge.com/miningequities/

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 18:29 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

crisis of overconfidence.  that law of attraction shit has once again bamboozled the masses.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 18:58 | Link to Comment medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

chairsatan for charlatan or chairman, can't decide

 

also, with the advent of miniaturized drones (insect sized), buy up all silver before they use(tax) money to release skynet's hounds

 

should it progress to an abject fight for resources and ultimate survival, with more people than there is oil to feed them, you will be handcuffed for your own protection. and man, not nature, will legislate death.

 

again: governments are extortion agents for central banx.

 

ours is a time of blaming cause on effect, not effect on cause. and consumption fueled prosperity is the pinnacle of this backssawards mentality.

 

pray.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 22:02 | Link to Comment prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

and for every patriot hacking at the root of liberties enemy, thousands swat the branches and leaves

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 19:53 | Link to Comment Cheyenne
Cheyenne's picture

Has anyone else noticed the rather massive improvement in the quality of writing in these blog's posts since its inauguration in what, Tyler, January 2009?

I mean, what in the Sam Hill is going on here?

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 20:02 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Zerohedge = Groupthink.

It is full of nuts and conspiracy theorists who think fiat currency will default immediately and hoard guns, ammo and precious metals.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 20:12 | Link to Comment Cheyenne
Cheyenne's picture

Nice straw man. Go back to your TV.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 21:47 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Go back to the minor leagues, troll.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 22:05 | Link to Comment Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

You forgot to add the insult of food hoarding.

Trolling requires discipline and adhering to the script.

Buried canned hams are delicious....sprinkled with conspiracy nuts--even better.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 22:05 | Link to Comment prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

don't criticize what you don't understand

 

 

http://www.google.com/search?q=phantom+shares&tbo=p&tbm=vid&source=vgc

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 01:00 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Atta boy, Math Man, drop your bar of soap in the shower prison and dare everyone not to rape your ass.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 20:11 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

A special song for Bernanke, Geithner, and Obama. Stumbled across this CD song today while running my errands in my gas guzzling 5.4L  Lincoln Navigator. I pondered how this should be presented to the public.

The CD cover would immediately place me into the den of wolves. i.e. illuminati, Satan or blood sipper.

 

Being a prior owner of several BMW's, thought this might amplify an artistic message. As you watch the video, only one can think of outcome. Is this gentleman just a reckless driver? Is the driver running from something? Is this driver pretending to be the FED, by throttling the monetary policy? Is Steve Liesman sitting in the back seat filming this joy ride? Are the rest of the CFR clan hidden in the boot? 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ut9SQ3uFSJ0 

Through all of the years
A slave to the tears
Another reason to cry
The last time for you and I

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 20:19 | Link to Comment Arthur
Arthur's picture

China wants/needs our food.  Time for an export tax of a $2 a bushel, after ten years we might get all our money back.   Plus we cause Chinese wage inflation so their population can buy our food.  In turn, Chinese cost of production rises making the USA more competitive.  Crisis solved.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 20:42 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

collateralised loan obligation, derivatives, and AIG.

 Crisis solved

 

I'm all tucked in with biscuits & milk on my night stand. Please tell me another bedtime story. Jack and the Beanstalk please!! I beg you.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 22:09 | Link to Comment prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

they can't have our food, least not while we use tax dollars to subsidize the corn ethanol scam; we'll be burning it for fuel first

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 20:57 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Why is this worthless verbiage available. I know my trding strategy.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 21:26 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The conspiracy of optimism is just a symptom of the whole country wanting to regress to being bratty kids. Not too promising. 

 

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 22:10 | Link to Comment prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

truth can be a real downer

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 21:32 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

UNrelated . Got the attention. Lets get FX flows into Tokyo Manana? Yes I speak many speaks. Arabic is testii?

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 07:24 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

TD

I agree with your view of the 'group think' but forgive humans for the herding instinct. To follow what others appear to be doing successfully is one of the most powerful forces in us all, in all animals in nature in fact. It is our in-built survival instinct to follow the herd, seek protection and indeed wealth in it. Don't knock it too much because in the majority it works every time.

Here's why. Last year I spent my time listening to the contrarian view, that of the 'Cry Wolf' views of Elliott Wave who detailed every month how the herd were massing in a new bubble. Guess what? I lost out along with all EW subscribers cowered deep underground missing the stock and commodity rise while the herd grazed on rich pastures basking in the sunlight. I and many EW'ers lost out BIG TIME last year not grazing with the herd.

So the herd is right 98% of the time so my advise is run with it for as long as you can. But be a contrarian when you feel the herd is becoming euphoric and living in LaLa Land. It's usually when you hear sayings like "you're insane not be in" and "you can't lose" that you should cut loose because the herd has reached euphoric (insane) levels of over-confidence.

I think we are there again like 2007. Posters on ZH keep saying you "can't fight the Fed" and this market is "only ever going up" because the Feds pumping it with funny money, it "can't possibly go down" they'll "just turn on the taps". See some comments above, the herd is now so euphoric markets can only go one way... up, up, up.

It's time to get out, this herd is looking less like a pack of wolves onto a 'good thing' and more like a bunch of loonatic Lemmings!

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 22:05 | Link to Comment Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

Telling people what they want to hear is the surest path to success. I suspect it has always been this way, but it really seemed to take off when Bill Clinton showed us the way. It seemed like the only thing that mattered any more was what you said, who you said it to, and when you said it. Of course, I was living in the DC area for 14 years spanning the whole Clinton administration, so it was really in my face.

It reached a peak when people elected Obama knowing nothing about him because of rabid positive groupthink. Given the growing disappointment from the impossibility of hiding the reality of Obama's failure and his disturbing similarity to Bush - the subject of rabid negative groupthink, I think we may have seen the nadir of groupthink, but it may be too late.

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 22:12 | Link to Comment prophet_banker
prophet_banker's picture

we have owners, so we should be electing policies, not puppets

Sat, 02/26/2011 - 22:16 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

one topic Zero Hedge enjoys ridiculing with the disdain it deserves is groupthink of any form

a quick scan of comments on the charlie sheen "financial" thread might cause one to question the veracity of this claim.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 01:12 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

When the music stops and everyone loses money, only Wall STreet and the Bank CEOs will get bailed out once again

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 01:56 | Link to Comment dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

an example of groupthink would be chanting day in and day out that the market will crash again soon.  and then when it doesn't, don't admit the mistake but blame others.

people not fighting the tape is a poor example of groupthink.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 06:07 | Link to Comment pcrs
pcrs's picture

So where do you put your money then, as equity is not safe, commodities are not safe, debt is not safe and housing is coming out of a bubble.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 14:22 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Silver, gold, lead... not necessarily in that order.

Sun, 02/27/2011 - 16:23 | Link to Comment penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

What's with all the negativity about the recovery, this hard hitting journalistic piece clears it all up:

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112150/signs-economy-is-on-the-upswing

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!