• Gold Money
    05/03/2016 - 11:35
    Crude oil time-spreads have completely dislocated from inventories. Historically, such dislocations have proved to be short lived. We expect that either spot prices will sell-off again or the back...

Albert Edwards Sees Stocks Under March Lows As Bond Yield Go Below 2%

Tyler Durden's picture

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 07/28/2010 - 08:30 | 491692 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

sold off 1/2 my AUD holdings yesterday @ the high

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 08:46 | 491714 AUD
AUD's picture

What!? You bastard.

Just kidding, actually a good time to sell your AUD & buy gold.

If Albert is expecting some kind of market crash to reach his lows, I think he is mistaken.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 08:30 | 491693 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

"Overvalued" is an old and obsolete term in contemporary markets.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 09:17 | 491759 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Dude, you're looking at this the wrong way. Every stock should be considered as you would yourold comic book collection your mom stored in her basement for 40 years. There is incredible value in each of those 40+ year old comics if only you would remember they are there, just ready to be released from their prison.

There's Gold in them thar stocks boy. Just dig a little.

<yes, I guess I need the sarcasm tag>

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 08:40 | 491702 fxquant
fxquant's picture

APPL is my key inflection point. With >8% share of the PC market analysts have touted the improved Imac's as a whoope-deedo. Contrary to popular opinion Iphoine has 28% of the cellular mkt (not the 100% some media types would have you believe), a very good share but NOT the lead dog either.

Yet here is the darling of every analyst having them tripping over their feet in a rush to boost price targets one after another. A major bubble burst in the making?



Wed, 07/28/2010 - 08:55 | 491729 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Human psychology has as much to do with analyst's opinions as their statistics. Popular opinion is tough to stand in the way of, particular if you're an analyst who wants some air time and a steady paycheck. Once enough analysts fall in love with a pretty Apple, the others are soon to follow. It happens to all of us and is related to jumping on the band wagon. They take a "fresh" look at their conclusions, tweak a little here and there and bang, they move their projected price 20% higher. Everyone else follows the conga line.

I remember a CFP seminar a few years back (late 2007) that I attended. There was one speaker who was quite outspoken about his concerns regarding housing. After the various speakers had finished, everyone hung around to talk. I immediately found the housing guy and listened to him talk with the various audience members for the next hour. Over that hour, with person after person assaulting his views as crazy or unrealistic etc, he slowly backed off his view and by the end was openly admitting he was mistaken and would amend his position.

It's tough withstanding the flood waters, particularly if you wish to be liked or desired. Or in the case of that critical melting pot of ideas, invited back on CNBC TeeVee.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 14:23 | 492484 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Trendy FAO Schwartz manufacturing non-essential adult toys in Chinese labor camps.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 08:41 | 491706 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

If we see a sub 2% 10 year, watchout and wow.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 08:46 | 491713 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Love how this guy bashes economists for not being humble and yet he comes off as an arrogant jerk himself. The market will humble him too. His analysis lacks any conception of the liquidity tsunami driving risk assets higher. The "powers that be" want to reflate risk assets and introduce some inflation into the economic system. They will do whatever it takes to avoid another Japanese type protracted downturn. They may fail, but from my recent comments, you'll see that fundamentals aren't nearly as bad as these bears lead you to believe, and liquidity remains plentiful.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 09:19 | 491760 spinone
spinone's picture

Central bank intervention has been impressive.  But the amount of debt and other paper claims to future growth and physical assets is tremendous compaired to the underlying assets.  This debt must be continuously rolled over, paid off or defaulted on.  It can't be hidden forever with mark to market fanatasy and regulatory forbearance.  This is the attraction of PM, which is a asset that is not simultaneously another's liability.  Liquidity injections are just tears in the ocean of deflation.

Time will tell.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 11:56 | 491921 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

+ !  Great summary.

Continuing asset deflation will have to be addressed at some point.



Wed, 07/28/2010 - 09:29 | 491779 43 Steelie
43 Steelie's picture

Leo, the fundamentals are terrible.

The first half of your paragraph makes sense and if that is the reason you want to use for why stocks will continue gun higher then by all means stick with it. But please don't mistake this for a recovery. Blame this continued rally on liquidity and leverage, not on long-term fundamentals.

The word "recovery" itself has been inserted into every single economic interpretation by a forecaster for the last 2 1/2 years now. I promise we'll be using that godforsaken word for at least another 3-5. 

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 10:35 | 491910 obelisks
obelisks's picture

Leo Kolivakis what Albert Edwards says is interesting and BELIVEABLE as opposed to the crap you write ! There is no one else I can think of on this site as being more of  "  an arrogant jerk " than you ! 

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 12:26 | 492210 ATG
ATG's picture

Leo, in what deluded alternate reality do you dwell?

The adjusted monetary base slowed at a -90% rate this year, the money multiplier is consistently below One for over a year, and M3 is down -10% the last year.

What liquidity Leo?

Are you also long gold?



Wed, 07/28/2010 - 13:25 | 492367 Helix6
Helix6's picture

Agreed.  I've heard the dire predictions about S&P 600 or DOW 4500 twice now, once right at the March 2009 lows, and once at the DOW's first recent excursion below 10000.  Both times, the pronouncement turned out to mark a market low.

Not that I don;t think the market can go lower, but S&P 600?  I guess anything's possible, but I'm not putting my money on it.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 08:48 | 491715 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I have to admire the Central banks defence of a absurdly unsustainable postion and their ability to sustain the Ponzi scheme in the minds of the populace.

They seem willing to sacrifice any amount capital or even fictional capital to keep their crazy dreams alive.

Maybe BB is a maniac but the man must have balls of steel or even gold to lie in such a cavalier and flippant manner in front of every prole and functionary with the patience to listen.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 08:52 | 491716 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture


Wed, 07/28/2010 - 08:50 | 491717 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture


Wed, 07/28/2010 - 08:48 | 491718 jcrows
jcrows's picture

this explains gold's "weakness" (not), yet again.

this ice age he speaks of is the continuing freeze up of liquidity for anyone not called goldman sachs_ and the most liquid asset to free up a freeze up is_au_not aud

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 09:06 | 491743 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

As I said yesterday,  this rigged market has a long way to fall off the cliff.  The data coming out is horrid, and soon the leech and scum prop desks will turn on each other, and the mayhem will begin.  Circuit breakers will be blown every hour.  There are no bids to stop the free fall when it begins.  No one else is in the market other than crooks.  Smart retail has been long gone since the flash crash.   The danger of melting a market up like they have on such low volume is inherently hazardous to one's wealth.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 09:07 | 491746 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

low 2's on the 10's.  Every asset know to mankind is in some state of a bubble and is global.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 09:09 | 491747 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

Is there a way to subscribe to or download Edwards' research notes without being a client?  I checked the SocGen website but couldn't find anything.  Feels like this is a guy I should be reading more often.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 09:19 | 491762 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

maybe sell milk and bread from your SNAP payments for a subscription  ya freeloader

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 09:21 | 491765 arnoldsimage
arnoldsimage's picture

please watch this short video. very important... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoW8uAlYdu4

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 12:34 | 492246 ATG
ATG's picture

Cybersecurity Act RINO Collins, Lieberman and Rockefeller support allows the President to turn off the internet four months, thereby disappearing virtual money at will, leading to deflation, corporate bank foreclosure and repo on unprecedented scale. Might explain why they're sitting on $2 T in cash...

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 09:33 | 491770 RaymondKHessel
RaymondKHessel's picture

I see stocks GOING TO THE MOON

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 12:37 | 492255 ATG
ATG's picture

Your binoculars, microscope, spectacles or telescope may be on backwards.

Check settings before wasting wealth, health and joy...

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 09:54 | 491834 wawawiwaa
wawawiwaa's picture

Mr. Edwards might want to double check his PV formula which implies that the lower the cost of capital the higher the multiple. So before they blamed the low rates to create bubbles.. now they expect the low rates to create crashes... He should stick to writing. 

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 12:42 | 492273 ATG
ATG's picture

Higher multiples associated with lower i rates lever prices down faster with falling earnings...

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 10:25 | 491887 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture


Edwards is right, who cares why?

Economists are wrong; why listen to them?

It IS different this time; the decline in availability of primary materials is the constraint on growth, not interest rates or money claims on other money. A primary material constraint - in the current case crude oil - is attacking our wonderful pet automobiles. Auto use supports our commercial economy; a shrinkage of a small fraction of auto sales/use is fatal.

Real estate and retail sales are automobile- enabled.

When prinary resource constraints move from automobiles to agriculture ... things will get interesting very quickly. Nobody can say they weren't warned ...

(being able to do something about it is another story ...)

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 10:31 | 491898 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

This Edwards guy is overly optimistic in my view.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 10:38 | 491919 freshman
freshman's picture

Is AE saying that the analysts optimism is a leading indicator? I thought it was a HUGE contrarian indicator.... very confused.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 02:21 | 493636 ElliottMan
ElliottMan's picture

Good grief! A mainstream analyst who actually tells the truth!! He must be feeling ill! You certainly won't get an interview anytime soon on CNBC with an attitude like that, old son!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!