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Albert Edwards: "We Are Returning To 450 On The S&P"
Albert Edwards, whose opinion, of all macro economists, is among the most respected by Zero Hedge staff, has just thrown down the gauntlet. In his just released piece he mocks the Black Knight, compares the market to a Polish dude with a bullet stucj in his head, makes fun of koolaid drinking permabulls, and sets his estimate for the S&P... at 450.
Investors cannot move for the weight of broker research comparing the current conjuncture in the US with Japan a decade ago. While bond markets at least, move to discount deflation, most sell-side analysts still say the current situation is unlike Japan a decade ago. They are right. Things now in the US are much, much worse than Japan a decade ago.
Equity investors are in for a rude shock. The global economy is sliding back into recession and they are still not even aware that these events will trigger another leg down in valuations, the third major bear market since the equity valuation bubble burst.
This lack of awareness reminds me of reports this week that a 35 year old Polish man hadn?t noticed for five years that he had a bullet lodged in his head. Like the equity market in 2000, the Polish man had been partying too hard to notice that he had been shot. The BBC report the police as saying "He told us he remembered having a sore head, but that he wasn't really one for going to the doctor."
As the equity bloodbath of the last decade enters its final, even bloodier phase, investors continued optimism also reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python & the Holy Grail - link. Despite being grievously wounded by King Arthur, the Black Knight makes light of his injuries which he dismisses as a flesh wound. The vast bulk of the investment industry fails to appreciate that we are locked in a structural bear market and about to enter Act III.
In case anyone needs a graphic summary of all that was just said, the chart below summarizes it best:
Some more observations:
This year has already seen a dramatic flip-flop in sentiment as the market has begun to acknowledge it is sinking into the deflationary quicksand. For this year outperformance in the US, for example, is over 20 percentage points (see chart below).
Another pet peeve of the SocGen strategist, as demonstrated repeatedly by Zero Hedge when we show that bonds imply stocks should be at about 750-800, is why have stocks not followed bonds down into the deflationary abyss. His conclusion:
So far the equity market has shrugged off much of the weaker data that abounds, and has not joined the bond market in a perceptive move. The equity market will though crumble like the house of cards it is, when the nationwide manufacturing ISM slides below 50 into recession territory in coming months. Indeed the new orders data for August, already reported in regional ISM?s suggests the equity market is going to get some sentiment crushing data in the very near term. But never mind the last standing optimist will tell us ? it is only a flesh wound!
Yet all logic aside, we know readers are just waiting for the punchline. So here it is:
The structural bear market has not reached the end. We have long said that the de-bubbling process would end only when equities became very cheap and revulsion in equities as an asset class hangs in the air like a fog. The problem remains more of excess valuation within the US rather than Europe, but that will not prevent the bear market hurting other cheaper markets as much. We will return to the valuation nadir last seen in 1982 with the S&P bottoming around 450 (see chart below).
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Blogs are the victors by any rational credible opinion growth metric, publishing for better or worse is in the exponential phase of decentralization. Banking will follow.
Which is another reason why our currents struggles are so important, not just for us now, but for what will be learned.
Man, if things go horribly wrong for the honest people of today, it might be a thousands years before we get another chance at real progress.
we are the only country that can print dollars.
Others too, including the namesake SS founder of the Bilderbergers...
http://www.allbusiness.com/buying_exiting_businesses/3580529-1.html
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/world/6966561.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bernhard
http://www.bilderberg.org/bernhard.htm
What you mean "we", paleface?
Even though Obama can do an excellent nose in the air Mussolini pose, and would love to be dictator, we still have the ability to restrain the QE to infinity plan. Unlike Zimbabwe where you only contradicted Mugabe if you were safely out of the country.
We will be all safe when president palin is in office ??????????lol
I can imagine there was some guy in Japan that said that say 20 years ago... no freaking way the Nikkei could hit sub-9000 from 39000.
There is no Wizard of Oz.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the Japanese central bank has been buying bonds issued by the Japanese Treasury. It's been the citizens of Japan that have been absorbing debt issuance from the J Treasury. Sucking up all that yen strengthens the yen, and makes their export based economy very uncompetitive.
The US is not Japan. The Fed buys up most of our Treasury's debt. The dollar weakens due to monetization. Dollars are not soaked up by our CB, and in fact, the opposite is true. The Fed is basically printing dollars to pay for the US government's spending. I would guess that at least half of the $1.6 trillion that our government overspends this year is directly purchased by the Fed. This money gets spent into the general economy. To me, that is inflationary.
Anyone have the full article?
Looks like I picked the wrong day to stop dropping acid. Oh well, S&P 450 confirmed, in the meantime, S&P 1,100 targeted!!
Anyone have the full article?
Link?
Can't the Feds HFT235 Pumpomatic machine with the improved Dynoflo design over power this theory ?
In other amazing news, a whole bunch of people just bought seven-year notes with a coupon of 1.99%. Let's see...
Risk of 7-year inflation being greater than 2% annualized: 90%
Risk of 7-year dollar devaluation being greater than 2%: 99.9%
Risk of outright default on the 7-year notes: 20%
Value of sheeple and QE combo to continue this charade: PRICELESS
Turd,
Gotta remember these are the SHEEPLE, and they are scared shitless, and know nowhere else to put those FRN's.
Bottom line,their PAYING the Fed to hold their FRN's!.
They think 2.0% is Bofkinnanza.
Most aren't scared they are ignorant. I work with a dozen highly educated people with degrees in accounting and finance and 10 plus years in the work force and none of them has a clue what is going on. They are still in buy and hold mode, when the shit really hits the fan it's going to be devastating.
BUBBLE.
How many of those that bought 7 year notes at 1.99% did so because they're hoping soon they'll be able to sell them for more than they bought them?
The don't even have to tear out the kitchen and put a new one in to flip them.
Plus, if you can borrow at 0%, 1.99% is a dream.
It was just on CNBS, again. They convince people - at least their limited audience of a few thousand - that by going into US Treasuries it is the tired old cliche', Return OF Your Money Rather Than ON Your Money. Of course, they fail to mention that if you attempt to sell your notes/bonds prior to maturity you will almost assuredly get HOSED.
Perhaps they are hoping that when the Great Reset happens, their 7-year notes will have senior status in the who-gets-made-whole game. 90 cents on the dollar for notes will look really good when everyone else is getting 5 cents for cash. At which point the face value -- not the coupon income -- was the real position all along.
+1 insightful as hell
Junk me?
JUNK YOU!!!
Or someone loved it. I know people junk stuff they like and that is obviously good, because there is no not-junk option. It's like saying something is "sick" when it's really cool. And cool means hot. Er ... and hot means ... Okay I'll stop now.
And if no one is offended by what you say, then you're not saying enough. Being junked is a sign of both good and evil. To not be junked is neutral and unimportant.
I like clusterstocks thumbs up, thumbs down system. It tells a lot more about what the readers are thinking.
And on youtube the comments can float up or down based on the voting, which is pretty kewl, yo.
And, to ZH, you know how wikileaks actually deletes user info off their servers so that even a raid on their servers wouldn't give any user data. Brilliant, no?
I junked you.
I had to do something.
Heh, heh.
Cash in hand is king...
Cash in hand may be king...
Many think they can keep this going for awhile yet. I am not so sure. Too much supply and NO real buyers.
With unemployment so high and people getting hungry, they are cashing in IRA's and 401k's faster than HFT's move the market.
Also, many of those who took buy outs and early retirements have taken their money out of company pension plans and
put them in their own control. Those who did this and found their own Financial Advisor will likely start cashing out when
they read the next statement, if they have not already.
Some, like myself, who do things for themselves are in bonds, short the market, own 1 Fund, BEARX, and have bought phyisical gold, silver, platnium, and palladium. Started the metals 6 years ago and still buy the dips. Slowing down now because I think when the market craps their will be a bigger dip in the metals. Maybe!
Bonds will go for 2 to 3 years for sure. Think of Japan.
...and NO real buyers.
The crux, right now. High fear and low cash.
I have metals from 10 years ago; I'm not buying now either; except silver.
thanks for BEARX recommendation.
BEARX is too little too late; for objective news on a better choice, see:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=BEARX&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=PRPFX
That's the big question for me. What do the metals do when SP goes to 450? Of course, the shiny stuff ain't going nowhere. It's the miners I would hate to see drop and start all over again. So cash out, cash out half, keep close stops? I'm lazy with stops, not like when I traded futures. Maybe get that together. Need to keep miners earning while I'm out of work. It would be far more convenient if we got the gold and silver moonshots before the markets crash. Not likely, they all seem tied together.
450? I'm positioned for it. Have been for over a year. Could I please have it next week? I'm tired of waiting.
Slow death.
No shit. I'm also tired of sheeple whining about how they don't understand why some people want things to go down. What they don't understand is that it has to get worse before it can get better. The longer we wait the longer we have to sit in this limbo of malaise and slowly rot. Better to burn out than to fade away, then the real economy can rise from the ashes. Ok mixing some allegories there but whatever.
It's like when Grandma finally dies, and we can get on with our lives, instead of spending everything we have to keep her on life support.
(never actually knew any of my grandparents, so sorry if insensitive, maybe junk me?)
I will +1 you on that. Fuck every one of you chickenshit anonymous junkers. You all know Grandma (as much as you love her) was sucking the life out of you.
The only reason we kept Grandma on life support at all was because she was suffering so horribly. It was worth the money to watch it.
As for me, save one round for my ticket outta here.
with comments like that i'm beginning to understand just how badly fucked up some of you people are.
no wonder you're all paranoid,racist, depressed, angry and full of hatred.
We're in the same boat. It's been a long, tough road.
I would be struggling without Zerohedge, it's contributors and members, as it helped me maintain my conviction, which is worth far more than the money I've lost.
Thank you, Tyler.
And thanks to Johnny Bravo, who has been AWOL a long time and will end up in the gold plated stockade. I still have that piece of gold filling for him so he can start his hoard.
He may have gone on to Junk heaven. It happened before from what he has said.
He was resurrected from Master Bates. He could reappear as Johnny Jizz.
http://www.zerohedge.com/users/master-bates/track
All my indicators are all bearish at this point...However, the only thing that scares me, is the SPY message board on Yahoo Finance sounds ominously similar to the one on ZH.
Great article...as he states we will know we are close to a bottom when everyone is disgusted with equities and will swear them off like a "dot com" with no business plan.
Thats when I lever up and go "all in".
Nic Lenoir at 380 and now Edwards at 450. All I need is an estimate around there from Hugh Hendry and I put my bets on.
Whenever I hear predictions of 450 SPX, it's pretty comical. I don't know where we're heading but the ultra low SPX/DOW predictions are silly. Nearly as silly as the Dow 33,000 crowd a few years back. I'm willing to concede 850 - 900 area but I really don't think we'll get there until this time 2011. More juice coming for equities from the Fed. Election will spark some sort of little rally, etc.
When that all runs out, we fade again. But my feeling, we may visit high 1100's this Fall before heading back to a new SPX range of 850 - 1000 for a long time.
6660 was a wild prediction as well oh let's take a look at the Nikkei, remember Japan had the greatest economic system the world had ever seen back in the 80s.
Let me see from 40,000 to what 7,000 in 2009... oh they are not done yet either back in the 8800 handle range.
How much did the DOW lose in the 30s? :) I know impossible.
I would say kind of short crowded unless 1010 is taken out on the S&P500 short-term.
Didn't you say in 2008 that the DOW would never go back below 10,000? Pretty sure I pulled that up on you. :)
I did indeed say that. I changed my outlook though and went short back in early May when it was clear that things weren't improving.
I'm not saying it's impossible to get to 450 SPX since no one knows. It just seems like that's the extreme case. My feeling is for a pretty bad long term malaise between 850 - 1000 but in the near future, we'll probably pop on a bunch of stimulus, election BS throughout the Fall.
Oh I agree there... it's an extreme case because the system is coming to it's end. The extremes will be the norm going forward just like the last 3 years. Wild swings in both directions.
Yes, you would be right 9 out of 10 times... the problem is you don't think the system is capable of ending. Which is why you had virtually every economist in the world saying the Fed would start hiking rates back up by the end of 2008... because 9 out of 10 times that would be correct, then they said it would be the end of 2009, then the end of 2010, then the end of 2011, now the end of 2012. So, why do they continue to be wrong year after year? Bad assumptions while not using true historic numbers.
According to 99% of economist, sub 7000 on the DOW was impossible and 7000 Nikkei was laughed at. I heard that dipshit on CNBC that Simon guy say there is no way the DOW could retest April 2009. I just smile.
Unfortunately, you have failed to realize every generation or so the system comes to an end or close to it.
Now you're just being silly.
Farmer Brown comes by here every day, and other than Bill, Ted, Fred, Bob, and Mike (whom we have not seen lately), he's never hurt any of us.
It's not that much of a stretch, Harry.
Just take 9 times earnings on $50 per share in S&P earnings, and voila!
If you don't like the $50 in EPS, use $60 per share and put an 8x multiple on that for starters. History has shown the multiple is possible, and if the fundamentals from peak operating margins are bad enough, $60 in earnings might even be optimistic.
Now the timeframe on how that would play out is the real wildcard, in my opinion.
Youre pretty comical, Harry.
Santa Oz is laughing all the way, hahahah!
And God only knows what lame duck Congressmen will do Nov 3d...
Miners' deep motivation: Stay slim or stay in mine - as reprted by AP
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100826/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_chile_mine_collapse A metaphor for this??? Rosenberg's Advice For Living In A Japanese-Style Economy: Get Smallsorry, the editing feature is all effed up!!! font size won't change and spacing is not cooperating.
would really suck to have broad shoulders
With each successive round of QE more and more of that liquidity is going to be recycled into PMs or USTs, its plain obvious that QE can do jack in the face of systemic deleveraging.
If TPTB had to choose I'm pretty certain that deflation is preferable to hyperinflation as the former implies the rich now get richer while in the latter case TSHTF and all bets are off.
Self preservation.
With each successive round of QE
What QE?
Take a good long look at adjusted monetary base and money multiplier:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=BASE&s[1][transformation]=pc1
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT
the black knight... i mean cnbc hucksters. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eMkth8FWno
“We have managed to acquire $13 trillion of debt on our balance sheet and, in my view we have nothing to show for it.”
Democratic Senator Michael Bennet - 2010
"We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work."
Treasury Secretary Henry Morganthau - 1939
My, my, how history repeats...
Bennet was a strong proponent of Ponzi printing, now a critic since its election season and his balls are on the chopping block.
SCHULTZ: You know, most -- actually, most economists say that, technically, if you -- I mean, if you think like an economist, which most people don't -- technically, the recession is over
Special Guest Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz commenting to Greta Van Sustren on Fox News August 24, 2010
We have the tanning tax for Jersey, the bagel tax for Brooklyn, when do we get the Jewish Princess tax for Manhattan? Didn't Madison push for impartial taxation? Wasn't James one of the smarter guys?
The Congress shall have power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises [ . . . ] but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States [ . . . ][1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixteenth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Co...
It's a bold prediction. Good luck with that. So how can I reconcile this with the PPT? Seems like the PPT is pretty active. Are they all planning on taking a vacation at the same time? Or will they change their minds and pull the plug, and if so why now? I understand that bonds are saying lower markets, but with limitless liquidity all things are possible.
Seems to me the PPT is pretty flacid and impotent. DOW 9k bitchez
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/182a2b70-b130-11df-b899-00144feabdc0.html?ftca...
Yet another IED targeting the FRN convoy... this is the kind of news/development that keeps Bernanke/Geithner/Summers up at night. Long overdue.
From the same article, the true irony:
McDonald’s renminbi bonds
The Wile E Coyote Governmenthttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPHUtFxaJ8M
Now that's information suitable for the average couch potato.
Thanks!
Gotta love the pictures:
http://www.comcast.net/slideshow/finance-housingcollapse/
IMHO Alber Edwards is a professional clown, who has lost all credibility. SocGen should fire the guy right away. The fact that he is the most respected amongst ZH staff is alarming.
Albert Edwards has lost all credibility, how?
7 junks and counting, that's charmed!
16 junks... and counting.
MrTrader History27 now
Respect, around here, is earned.
haha yeah right, earned by being a yes man.
smallest bit of dissent here and you all go apeshit, lol
market valuations are absurd, and have been for 20 years. Stocks over that period have just becaome a game of greater fool theory.
What are stocks worth? Easy, net present value of free cash flow to capital (FCFC), less the market value of debt. FCFC is operating income after taxes. Terminal value is just FCFC/WACC. D&A and CapEx are a wash. You need not consider "growth", because the implicit assumption is that ROIC=WACC, in which case the vaunted "growth" adds nothing to the NPV (growth requires incremental capital, and if that capital is earning WACC then it is only worth its gross book value)
I have a model that performs that analysis on S&P500 earnings. The fair value of the S&P, on that basis, is about 800
RUN DOW_HOVER_AT_10000
1:23 left, Timmay. Tick, tick...
Wow, got quite a few people unwinding positions ahead of the GDP report and Consumer Sentiment....they will not be holding the bag tomorrow.
Does anyone have the entire report available?
Albert Edwards is the bear's bear. I remember having him present to me and my colleagues 15 years ago when he was at Dresdner Kleinwort, and he was just as bearish then. For years, he has stayed with the 'equities are a steaming pile of poo' theme, despite ridicule over long periods of time when Mr. Market was not in the mood. This is actually his dream come true now. Cometh the hour, cometh the man. Good effort.
Well basically 'equities' ARE and always have been a steaming pile of crap! Just a Ponzi bid/ask system to get get rich quick suckers to hit the MM's bid higher. Stocks basically mean NOTHING their 'value' is totaly arbitrary, and whatever you bid 1 day may be -0- the next! Hey its happened to hundreds of stocks since your meeting 15 years ago!
He's too pessimistic. S&P 453.
I'm of the "The Price is Right' mentality. I think you all are overbidding.
I bid 1
I agree with this analysis. The bond market is telling us everything. I have a big picture target on the ES of around 445. Fibonacci sequence from 10/2007 high to 3/2009 low, retraced to almost 61.8% level (4/26/10) with a target down at -23.6% (~445) level... What's interesting is the 50% retracement level (1127 area) has served as substantial resistance on 6/21/10 and 8/5/10 - 8/10/10.
Comex is getting put out of it's misery. Options expiration should get dicey.
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2010-01-01T00%3A00%3A...
Oh added for humor because we are going to need it to get through this even if it's at other peoples expense.
Mr Christian!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c04pKBgcoZc&feature=related
Ever Cramer says the market is messed up. He couldn't hit a bull in the ass with a bass fiddle!
Well, regardless of where we end up in 2011, I think we'll see a pretty decent pop very near term - as in tomorrow. This setup is priceless - everyone bringing down GDP expectations to extremely low levels smells like a rat to me. So what happens tomorrow when GDP isn't in the low 1 percentile?? Sounds like a rally to me.
Not completely betting on it, although I've started into a TBT position which is sort of betting on a rally I guess and might snatch a bit of AAPL here for a quick two day trade. Other than that, cash pretty much and precious metals.
See ya way the fuk lower Harry, one of the last of the great permabull 'tards.
I don't get the beating on Harry, he is playing it smart, he has hedged with cash and PM's covering deflation and hyperinflation the best any of us know how. I personally agree we are looking closer to the 400-600 range but Harry has reasoning for his estimate. A permabull tard would be all in, not hedging for all possibilities. Some of you guys act like he is the same as that fucktard Johnny Bravo, but he's not. I personally don't agree with him but damn, it's not like he is telling people they should go put every thing in AAPL and wait for the fortune to roll in.
looks like harry was dead right and you were dead wrong...bet it won't be the last time either, lol
I'm VERY pleased to see you back on the other side of my AAPL trade again...
LOL. You and your blink first contests with those applesaucers.
I like the way gold (and silver) stocks are decoupling from the broader market the last couple of days. Abberation or sign of things to come?
DOW 5000
"bastardz"
structurally anyone who throws a "number" on the S&P and does a bunch of cycle-theory doesn't hold water with me. consider that the STRUCTURE of the economy was completely different in 1981 and that means that the S&P is going to be different as well. it also means --- that if and when we see inflation hit the economy the earnings will be affected differently because today's economy doesn't have anywhere near the same number of "commodity" inputs that it used to. this means a different earnings scenario altogether.
LOL....
Timmy,Uncle Ben, & Paulson classic.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnkMmUsi4Gc&feature=related
Ok, let's see. We have the onset of another major bear market, and a decline in the currency. Not good. This will mean that commodities will decline as well?
And on top of that, they hyperinflationists will continue to buy into the line that hyperinflation is around the corner. Meanwhile, the banks are on the opposite side of the trade, gladly accepting money on behalf of their clients to bet against the bond market.
This is causing the redemptions?
Dow 3600 or bust!
The really annoying thing is we just wasted a year and a half with stupidity of the market acting like the good times had returned and that gave politicians the cover to do foolish things like a terrible healthcare reform and worthless financial regs. We've got asshole running Wall street and Washington.
Why not? Wall Street, or most of the Semite tribe, own the United States Treasury. When you have the same people in charge of both entities, there can be no other result.
Stop distracting us from the ruling class, which might be partially Jewish, partially Arab, partially Scottish, and partially whatever fucking ethnicity you are.
When they're rolling around in swimming pools of middle-class stolen tax funds, who gives a fuck how big a proportion of them might be in the Tribe? Fuck them all, and stop trying to blame just one of their group.
a wild prediction? not in my book. i remember the day a fella walked into the office in mid 2001 and shorted millions of enron - pre-skilling quitage. thought he was crazy. guess i was the guy at the poker table wondering who was the sucker. meanwhile there's still leh, bear, wamu and too many others to cite that lost greater than 90% of their value.
if you truly believe this guy you are insane
perhaps you should crowd into PONZI gold and ponzi bonds, backed by nothing, based on nothing
Here he is, folks. Johnny Bravo's idiot little brother. Get ready for some world class nonsense.
dismal, speaking of the brav-ster i haven't read any sage commentary from him since he waxed eloquent that the bears are "always" wrong. guess he's licking his wounds now that his portfolio has decreased back below 4 digits.
Funny that. Maybe he's had an epiphany and gone all in on the short side.
You guys are fucking RE-tarded. I've made the majority of my money with FAZ and VXX. That's hardly being long.
What I will say is that all your doom and gloom conspiracy theories are just reasons why you don't make any money.
I'm not bullish, but I'm certainly not huffing paint like some of the "S&P to 450" people on this site.
These people have been saying the same thing for HOW long now?
Anyway, people like you are a joke, and that's precisely why I haven't been posting here. Why argue with the retarded? I don't go to the mental hospital and make fun of people, right?
tmosley made a really good point. It's wrong to make fun of crazy/retarded people.
I will let your stock market losses do my ass-whipping for me.
Have fun buying gold at these levels. Hehe... it's about to make its turn again.
Perfect timing...
I tought maybe it was cause after the other night you went home to your mother and gargled her piss for a couple of days.
Oh yeah, and had her wash all your Undaroos.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLnWf1sQkjY
And stocks ARE based on something? Give me a break. Stocks are and always have been for degenerate gambler suckers in a ridiculous bid/ask scam system I still cant believe anyone buys into!
uh right...walmart, cisco, msft, brk, etc, all just gambles, and gold is a sure thing, lol
..and we're going to close break even today. It's another fucking Festivus miracle.
Edit: guess today is not Festivus
What? No head and shoulders pattern?
Yeah..and in 1982 the 10 year was at 14%.
This type of analysis is only for the simple minded!
The Baltic Dry Index should provide some insight shortly.
Goldman and JPM will gun the S&P futures before this will ever come close to fruition. This may happen for a split second or even a couple of minutes, but that's it.
Hmmm...well, Skynet was apparently unable to drive the markets any higher today, despite the drop in the weekly unemployment filings, even if the MDA started looking more and more like the smoldering pile of shit that it is. LOL, and that was after two days of consecutive algo/PPT-driven gains in the customarily lowest volume days of the year...AFTER a complete ass-raping on new and existing home sales, so...
Either we've astrophysically mated with a new "Bizarro" region of spacetime, or even the algos are as clueless in the face of this mounting chaos as we are. S&P 450? Why not -450? Why not 3000? Fundamentals are dead, Bernanke probably alternately weeps and guffaws when he's taking his morning number 2, and the computers are more than likely trying to figure out how to nuke us all and meet up on a beach in Barbados. This fucking economy resembles nothing more than a fat, old mammoth lurching around with about a thousand spears in its hide and another thousand in flight, soon to strike home. I may not have much, but times like these make me grateful that what I have is mine and my exposure to the death-spasms of this shit-show are minimal to nil.
This nonsense about the market falling because of a worldwide economic disaster of biblical proportions is clearly being propogated by amateurs. These people simply refuse to acknowledge the facts. Markets are about price discovery, that is, discovering the price at which you can offload your bucket of crap before anyone realizes what it's really worth.
Yesterday's move up by oil in the face of record oversupply, and the equity market shuttle launch on the back of the worst housing figures in a decade/generation/century/millenium simply reflected the superior reasoning ability of professional money managers and their capacity to see beyond mere bad data.
Today's savage down draft in natural gas reflects a dangerous attempt at establishing a nonsensical and amateurish approach to money management based on so-called "facts".
It was refreshing today to see a true professional step up to the plate and point out the dangerous folly of such naive populism.
Now that's what I call leadership. It makes me weep with gratitude. If we start believing that weak economic data should adversely impact markets, where will it stop? You'll have some fool getting up saying that the moon landings actually happened.
Sports guy chest bump.
The future ain't what it used to be. - Yoggi Berra
"Let's grab some more pickanick baskets when the ranger's not looking." - Yogi Bear
Each Yogi had it right. But it's not the bears who party when authority is distracted.
Adjusted for Inflation
-Core or Hardline?
Stop "adjusting for inflation" and swicth to a currency that cannot be manipulated. Enter the Gold market. Now, price the stock market in terms of Gold.
I started using a basket as a baseline many years ago:
Finite Commodity - Gold
Consumable Commodity - Oil
Labor Cost - Minimum Wage
Labor Pool - World Population
Finite Resource - Land
Capital Costs - 10Y Yield
............................................
What the government says is inflation is NOT the reality.
?????
That's why I love this site. I'm gone for like days and people are still talking about me.
Like I always say, I bring more clicks here than anybody else. People log in just to see what I say.
I don't think I'm going to post very much at all though. There's just too many people that are caught up in propaganda and B.S. to have any sort of intelligent discussion.
S&P to 450? Please. I've been hearing the same thing on this site since it was at 750, and it was at blogspot.
I've even been short for the last few days, and would welcome this action.
It's not going to happen though. I sold my FAZ this afternoon. It's time to cover shorts, and we're going to see a bounce for a least a little bit.
Keep hating, bitchez! Hating doesn't make you money though. :)
There has to be a ying/yang.Keep posting ..
The market did not throw up yet, I am waiting for 850-900.
I'm sure TD is wringing his hands lamenting the loss of advertising $$ he's going to lose if you dropped off the face of the Earth.
Douche.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLnWf1sQkjY
Hey, Rosie just said "depression" on Cavuto.
Might get there on an overshoot, but at say 600 big long term money (if its still around) sees a 25P downside and a 100P upside - four to one risk reward.
in the meantime the market has digested a lot of bad news this week without much damage. frankly scarlet I don't give a damn, might be the short term direction, or up and we may see 1300 BEFORE we see 450, but 450 is good.
Man, someone needs to do a Youtube remake of Monty Python Search for the Holy Grail and change it to Bernanke's Search for the Holy Script. Surely there is more to Albert's reference to the movie? Imagine Bernanke clopping up to the peasant Dennis and the dialogue that results. Or the minstral receiting Sir Bernanke Ran Away! Or even better instead of the French Castle in the begining it could be with the Chinese stating to go away or "I'll fart in your general direction". With Bernanke running away to catapulted T-Bills. My mind's going to explode thinking of this.
How about Timmy and Ben discussing how to restart the economy! The emotional tone is spot on!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfN8OrCPZvg
just sick. :)
bring it on!
How about 5 x SP earnings at $40?
Good stuff.
Right in line with Kondratiev Wave, end of the Information technology boom and into Winter.
Kondratiev--able to see 70 years in the future, unable to see the politicians scheming to kill him. Now if only he'd told them what they like to hear, like Keynes...
My vision of next year: Albert Edwards doesn't win or lose a dime on his prognostications.
Albert Edwards couldn't find his ass with both hands, that's why he toils for an obscure French bank best known for hiring rogue traders. What part of the 82% rally off the bottom did AL predict? I thought so. Useless for anyone who trades.
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Die of cancer, you motherfucking spam-bot BITCH.
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