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Alcoa On Deck

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This is what the market expects out of Alcoa, naturally guided lower in the past week.

And here are the full results:

  • EPS: $0.32; consensus of $0.325, and $0.355 4 weeks ago
  • Revenue: $6.59Bn; consensusof $6.31Bn
  • Fress Cash Flow: $526 MM
  • Reaffirms forecast for 12% global aluminum demand growth. Unclear if this forecast anticipates SHIBOR at 6%.

Full report:

Highlights:

  • Income from continuing operations of $326 million, or $0.28 per share,
    up 138 percent compared to second quarter 2010; excluding negative
    impact of special items, income from continuing operations of $364
    million, or $0.32 per share
  • Revenue of $6.6 billion, up 27 percent over second quarter 2010 and 11
    percent over first quarter 2011
  • Record profitability in mid- and down-stream businesses
  • Cash from operations of $798 million
  • Free cash flow of $526 million
  • Debt-to-capital ratio of 32.6 percent and cash on hand of $1.3 billion
  • Reduced days working capital from 43 in second quarter 2010 to 37
  • Reaffirm projection for 12 percent growth in global aluminum demand
    for 2011

 

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Alcoa’s (NYSE: AA) second quarter 2011 income from continuing operations
jumped 138 percent compared to a year ago on growing revenue, record
quarterly alumina revenue and record mid- and down-stream performance,
the Company announced today.

Income from continuing operations was $326 million for second quarter
2011, or $0.28 per share. Excluding the negative impact for special
items of $38 million, income from continuing operations was $364
million, or $0.32 per share.

Second quarter 2011 income from continuing operations was up 138 percent
from second quarter 2010 income of $137 million, or $0.13 per share, and
up 6 percent from first quarter 2011 income of $309 million, or $0.27
per share.

Net income for second quarter 2011 was $322 million, or $0.28 per share,
compared to net income in second quarter 2010 of $136 million, or $0.13
per share, and net income in first quarter 2011 of $308 million, or
$0.27 per share.

“We turned in another strong quarter, with solid revenue and earnings
growth,” said Alcoa Chairman and CEO Klaus Kleinfeld. “Across the
Company, our team is delivering outstanding results through our constant
focus on execution and by reinventing what customers believe is possible
through innovation.

“Although the economic recovery is uneven, the overall outlook for Alcoa
- and for aluminum - remains positive,” Kleinfeld said. “Demand for
aluminum continues to rise and so does growth in our major markets.
These factors support our projection that aluminum demand will grow 12
percent this year and will double by 2020.”

The sequential increase in income from continuing operations was driven
by higher quarterly revenue (up 11 percent), higher alumina shipments
(up 8 percent), and higher realized pricing for both alumina (up 7
percent) and aluminum (up 6 percent), along with improved productivity
and continued strong growth in major markets served by mid- and
down-stream businesses. This was somewhat offset by a weaker U.S.
dollar, along with higher energy and materials costs.

Special items in second quarter 2011 included costs associated with
restructuring and Alcoa’s recent debt tender offers, somewhat offset by
the positive impact of mark-to-market changes on certain power
derivative contracts.

Revenue for second quarter 2011 was $6.6 billion, up 27 percent from the
year-ago quarter and 11 percent from first quarter 2011.

Compared to first quarter 2011, end market revenue increased in
packaging (13 percent), aerospace (6 percent), building and construction
(12 percent), commercial transportation (16 percent), industrial
products (9 percent), industrial gas turbines (8 percent) and automotive
(5 percent).

For the quarter, adjusted EBITDA was $1.04 billion, up 44 percent from
the second quarter of 2010 and up 9 percent from first quarter 2011.

Both Flat-Rolled Products and Engineered Products and Solutions segments
once again turned in record quarterly performance. Flat-Rolled Products
set a record for adjusted EBITDA at $193 million, while Engineered
Products and Solutions’ 19 percent adjusted EBITDA margin was an
all-time quarterly best.

Alcoa is also well ahead of the Company’s 2011 financial targets. The
Company’s debt-to-capital ratio at the end of the quarter was 32.6
percent, a 100 basis-point improvement over first quarter 2011. For the
first half of 2011, capital spending was $476 million, on track at 32
percent of the 2011 target. Expenditures on the Ma’aden-Alcoa investment
were also on track at $152 million, 38 percent of target. Free cash flow
was $526 million in second quarter 2011, putting Alcoa on pace through
the first half of the year. The Company ended the quarter with cash on
hand of $1.3 billion. Days working capital were reduced from 43 in
second quarter 2010 to 37 in second quarter 2011.

For the first half of 2011, revenues were $12.5 billion, up 25 percent
over the first half of 2010. Income from continuing operations in the
first half of 2011 was $635 million, or $0.56 per share, compared to a
loss from continuing operations of $57 million, or $0.06 per share, in
the first half of 2010. Net income in the first half of 2011 was $630
million, or $0.55 per share.

Looking ahead, Alcoa projects continued growth in all major end markets
on a global basis, including aerospace (7 percent), automotive (4-8
percent), commercial transportation (7-12 percent), packaging (2-3
percent), building and construction (1-3 percent), and industrial gas
turbines (5-10 percent). For the year, Alcoa projects aluminum demand to
grow 12 percent on top of the 13 percent growth seen in 2010. Alcoa
projects that, from a 2010 baseline, aluminum demand will double by 2020
on 6.5 percent annual growth.

 

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Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:07 | 1445183 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Beautiful short for tomorrow till 14.60

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:13 | 1445215 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

If by short you mean long then yeah.... You could short AA tomorrow...

 

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:15 | 1445221 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Thats what im telling , selling  and reverse the news.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:24 | 1445426 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Can't anyone hit their massively guided lower whisper numbers, anymore?

WTF?

I mean, that game is old and expected, but it was working, and now they can't even get the trick number right so as to come in with a beat?

Maybe Coca-Cola is none too happy with Alcoa's little wink-wink reverse storage fee rebate scam that Alcoa's working with the Squid re the LME Warehousing thingamigbob (as in lawyering up).

 

And what is up with Novellus?

 

Sheeeeesh!!!! These are rookie mistakes! The consensus should have been 7c-13c.

07-11 16:51: Novellus sees Q3 EPS 60c-75c vs. consensus 87c

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:07 | 1445184 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Whisper number was .40.  AA should sell off.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:10 | 1445185 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

beat this bitchez!  edit: sorry, thought I was first  :>(

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:07 | 1445186 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Ponzi on Wayne....

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:09 | 1445192 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Ponzi on Garth

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:32 | 1445284 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

I think i'm going to hurl...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:33 | 1445503 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Extreme close-up

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:11 | 1445206 Bull_Dragon
Bull_Dragon's picture

Holding it for now. AL bitchezzz

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:11 | 1445208 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Party on excellent!

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:15 | 1445213 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Beer cans, alcohol sales always go up in a depression.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:24 | 1445251 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

make up..

comfort foods..

lotto..

alcohol..

smaller comfort items basically across the board.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 22:45 | 1446455 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Recycling is up, too.  The number of self employed canners and scrapers has grown exponentially, and they are not included in the official government employment numbers.  Obama and the BLS should take note of this surge in "green job" entrepreneurship (maybe post some people down at the local scrap metal yard?).

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:15 | 1445219 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

AA consensus $0.34, actual $0.28

Easy explanation...

'Transitory' reduction in CAN KICKING needs whilst debt ceiling issue is in limbo...

Expect 'positive guidance' in the conference call...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:16 | 1445227 rdenner
rdenner's picture

But cans are made out of Aluminum.. wouldn't "Can Kicking" be bullish for Alcoa... Duhhhh... :)  

 

Robert

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:22 | 1445242 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Just remember always... The TOTUS said it himself...

"YES WE CAN!"

Most peeps just failed to truly understand it 1st time around

2012 slogan... "YES WE (KICK THE) CAN!"

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:40 | 1445303 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

yes we can!   =   thank you Satan backwards

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqALdkTArqs

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:21 | 1445243 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i think if they are not being sufficiently kicked, they tend to get re-cycled, and the price plummets, due to huge new supply.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:16 | 1445223 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

SPY futures up.  We are back in bizarro world.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:19 | 1445236 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

Help me out here. Why is that bizarro when one of the shining benchmarks came out solid in earnings? Alcoa is usually a measure of the earnings.

 

Just trying to understand what I'm missing or is it all just doom and gloom regarless of the reports...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:27 | 1445262 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

Off by 6 cents? Believe it or not that's pretty huge. Forcasting an increase in sales into the 2nd half is just that.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:02 | 1445397 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

Consnsus was .32

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:31 | 1445498 Traianus Augustus
Traianus Augustus's picture

Yeah for about a week.  If earnings were next week consensus would have been .28 and touted as a great report.  Fun and games with the earnings releases once again!!!!

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:57 | 1445565 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

I see... that makes sense. revise down eps,  revise down,  up to last minute then beat. But in this case they could only meet the last revision. But on the revenue side they beat pretty well, and that is usually more desirable to long term investors because it demonstrates future growth. 

 

I guess the question I am getting at is:

A. Is this a beat?

B. A miss?

C. Neutral news, nothing to see move a long?

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:51 | 1445351 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Alcoa is a measure in resources (Al). When the price is up they do ok. Though there is alot of Al..it is a finite resource.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:17 | 1445447 Chip
Chip's picture

The numbers themselves don't matter. All that matters is the reaction to those numbers,  numbers, price is the last word. 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:31 | 1445500 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

So would not AA start a chain reaction of optimism in the markets since supposedely AA is a litmus test on how the rest of the S&P does? 

 

Thanks

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:15 | 1445224 aVian
aVian's picture

barry aka barrack was not listed on the joint state of Hawaii tax return in 1974.  only "maya" was.  

page 169 

http://www.scribd.com/doc/59560239/FOIA-Release-Records-Relating-to-Barry-Soetoro-Stanley-Ann-Dunham-Barack-Obama-Sr-Lolo-Soetoro-Department-of-Homeland-Security

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:20 | 1445239 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

barrack is the first black president

the media luvs him.  he s tefflon

whatever shady sh1t he did...he wont get caught until way later

 

sort of like jordan and his pornstars

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:48 | 1445925 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

OK... last time...

This is drugs... This is your brain on drugs (in a teflon TOTUS frying pan)... Any questions?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FtNm9CgA6U

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:42 | 1445715 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

And yet here is a picture of him with the whole family, and more pictures of what appears to be a creepily Obama-looking young version of Obama.  Is this a shill site?  Are all these pictures fake?  Is he really who he says he is?  Things just don't add up?!  ;)

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSAlIM2Eo9mcuAYUbh-_xtZtSSmQlbxB...

http://www.barack-obama-photos.com/Obama-Childhood-Photos.html

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:18 | 1445231 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Market for tinfoil appears to be up...

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:24 | 1445258 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

must be the new hat makers.  must zH readers have drawers-full, boxes of the stuff, already, eh? 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:35 | 1445292 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

New buyers from the EU...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:53 | 1445354 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I have to have something to simmer my brats in on the grill.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:19 | 1445235 kito
kito's picture

its all about the commodities

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:20 | 1445240 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Alcoa's results were bolstered by a growth in sales of tin foil hats.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:22 | 1445248 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

I got me a few last week.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:36 | 1445295 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Remember, they don't work if they're not properly grounded... :)

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:37 | 1445296 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

drupal...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:36 | 1445294 John Law Lives
Mon, 07/11/2011 - 16:46 | 1445326 aVian
aVian's picture

not a jobless recovery just a lessjob recovery

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:20 | 1445822 fuu
fuu's picture

bravo

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:50 | 1445933 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

just face it already...

It's a 'recoveryless recovery'...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:12 | 1445431 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Aluminum can recycling is at an all-time high. Silver bitchez! Er, I mean Silver BULLETS bitchez!

Coors Light Cans, for those playing at home.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:45 | 1445513 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I've had a crash course in manipulation the financial numbers a few weeks back.

But it seems that the most common way to create cash on the books is the demand payments from all clients within 30 days or risk a block and delay paying the supplier bills untill end of month after 3 months.

That's 120 days.

This shit is so common and creates a artificial cash reserve while the company is near comateuze.

The suppliers are actually "lending" interest free money to the companies.

And what can small suppliers do against a giant? Nothing. We make jokes about that.

But what's worse is that this influences the bookvalue of the companies BIGTIME.

Any shareholder that see "cashreserve of.... million" thinks: WOW THIS STOCK IS A DEAL! and they get suckerpunched.

The ceo gets the bonus for doing so and the small shareholder eats shit.

 

AND GUESS WHAT: IT TRANSLATES ITSELF IN NET PROFITS. WHICH DON'T FOLLOW THE TRICK.

Alluminium prices have only went up for the last few years

All cost have been taken into account in the last Q's

Restructering has made Alcoa more profitable

All investments have been halted for the last 3 years

Earnings doubled but profits didn't? That doesn't rime with the price increases and decreased costs.

 

Alcoa will take a dive tomorrow.

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:45 | 1445543 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

What you described is just balance sheet adjustments that don't impact the bottom line. Might make Cash Flow look differrent but shrinking receivables, increasing cash, + holding payments (increasing liabilities) is the same no matter where you move the numbers. The only thing that would do is give you better ratios on your assets. 

 

Not trolling, just trying to understand where you are coming from. 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:55 | 1445563 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It gives you a super stock rotation number.

And the cash reserve is a revenue this Q.

You book a double Q by paying late and demand quick payments, and you can keep that number as long as you keep doing so.

But profit is down so their margins took a severe beating even with 2 x Q.

You bet on the future.

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:00 | 1445572 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

Thanks

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:06 | 1445596 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Thanks SD.  I will put it in my own way: ALCOA IS FUCKED.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 17:34 | 1445514 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

CONGRATS TO ALCOA for beating the estimates they gave to analysts...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 18:24 | 1445647 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Cannot beat on higher revenue.  That tells me the EPS boost though cost cutting is over.  Bad omen for earnings season.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 19:02 | 1445771 razorthin
razorthin's picture

15.48 is were you might buy unless the market gaps up tomorrow (probably).  Major support on a rising 200 DSMA.  20 DEMA was support at the close and is also rising.

These fukking gaps either way make trading very difficult.  Another casualty of the NWO.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 23:32 | 1446605 RollinRavenPurple
RollinRavenPurple's picture

Bring out the Kraken and the tin foil hats....this is gonna get really rich....S&P 500 50 DMA is 5 points below us and the future show us pointing lower by 10.  Let's see the power of the PPT. 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 23:32 | 1446606 RollinRavenPurple
RollinRavenPurple's picture

Bring out the Kraken and the tin foil hats....this is gonna get really rich....S&P 500 50 DMA is 5 points below us and the future show us pointing lower by 10.  Let's see the power of the PPT. 

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