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Alcoa Earnings Summary

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/11/2011 15:54 -0400

GAAP

Alcoa misses revenue, which prints at $5.96 billion: a $100 million miss to consensus. EPS in line with GAAP expectations of $0.28. EBITDA (cash flow proxy) of $955 million misses by a major $60 million. CapEx of $204MM is massively lower than consensus of $475MM (granted from one analyst): capital spending continues to be latent.

From the PR:

Income from continuing operations of $309 million, or $0.27 per share;
best since second quarter 2008, up 20 percent over fourth quarter 2010
and a $503 million turnaround compared to first quarter 2010
Income from continuing operations, excluding a negative impact for
special items of $8 million, or $0.01 per share, of $0.28 per share
Net income of $308 million, or $0.27 per share
Adjusted EBITDA of $955 million, up 22 percent from fourth quarter
2010, up 60 percent compared to first quarter 2010 and best since
third quarter 2008
Record profitability in midstream and downstream businesses
Revenue of $6.0 billion, up 22 percent over first quarter 2010, up 5
percent over fourth quarter 2010 and best revenue since third quarter
2008
Strong end market revenue growth, led by double-digit increases in
packaging, automotive, commercial transportation and industrial
products
Company reaffirms 2011 global aluminum demand growth projection of 12
percent

Previously

Results out momentarily. In the meantime here is what Wall Street is looking for:

Revenue: $6.061 billion
EBITDA: $1.015 billion
EPS: $0.27
CapEx: $475MM

And the AA/Alumina curve, showing the stock is 1 standard deviation rich.

- advertisements -

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:58 | 1158801 ZeroPower

AA EPS always mean pretty much zero besides a small boost or dump on futures at the time, but go figure to CNBC this is the kickoff of 'earnings season'..

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:17 | 1159348 SheepDog-One

Check that AA P/E...73.4....Whaaaaaaaaa.....

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:31 | 1159813 Rick64

Unbelievable.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:59 | 1158810 carbonmutant

It would seem that with all the tinfoil consumption around here their numbers should be up... lol

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:02 | 1158832 Deepskyy

I use recycled, cheaper, and Alcoa has already made the money once so I can stick it to the man.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:03 | 1158840 idea_hamster

Aluminum -- the other white metal.

I see a grand ad campaign....

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:13 | 1158891 spiral_eyes

aluminum used to be more expensive than gold in the 19th century...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:15 | 1158904 idea_hamster

True -- hence its place atop the Washington monument.

But inexpensive electricity eventually made redering elemental aluminum...well...elementary.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:17 | 1158912 Dangertime

Now THAT was a good comment.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:58 | 1158813 John McCloy

The Ponz closes green by a point..lol

Yeah this is legit.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:00 | 1158821 Hephasteus

Well they won't be making new aluminum for this plane now that it's found a YEAR later.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1373189/Victims-Air-France-fligh...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:21 | 1158923 Cash_is_Trash

I know, what a fucking disaster...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:06 | 1158847 The Axe

Chocolate bars are smaller--thus less aluminum...fuck

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:07 | 1158854 vast-dom

Aluminum compounds Alzheimer's.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:09 | 1158877 Jason T

its in my arm and hammer deoderant! Why?? Trying to poison us? won't buy that again.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:21 | 1158922 Agent P

Just about any deodorant that is also an antiperspirant will have it.

http://health.howstuffworks.com/skin-care/underarm-care/problems/question627.htm

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:25 | 1158946 Hephasteus

The metals thing has a mystery component. You also have to have a screw up in your krebs cycle to make it function as harmful. Which is what the innoculation parents finally discovered. The kids with the krebs cycle screw up got all the harmful effects of the metals in them. While kids without the kreb cycle problem it turned out it WAS perfectly safe.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:31 | 1158978 lance_manion

Jason, didn't you get the memo? It's all Mitchum now.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:43 | 1159017 LFMayor

Robert Mitchum. So you smell like you've been on a 3 day bender.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:51 | 1159052 erik

It is also in Arm & Hammer baking soda. The #1 baking soda sold in the US and used in cooking a huge range of foods.

side note: the whole captcha cannot be longer than 2 characters is getting really old. 17 times __ = -578. answer that in two characters and you get a cookie made with A&H baking soda.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:08 | 1158865 plocequ1

My Macbook pro is made from Alcoa Aluminum.. Aye, She's a fine machine, A fine machine.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:21 | 1158933 Cash_is_Trash

'Assembled' in China.

If a Foxconn employee loses it, the mutherfucker commits 'suicide'.

Long live the Leader of the Movement

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:10 | 1158869 I am Jobe

You must be out of your mind. They can say whatever they want and spin the news and gives the CEO to loot the cookie jar.

Yeah the Great Nation and ethical , wtf.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:11 | 1158871 Pepe

KK braggs about Alcoa assisted by bartiroma sucks

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:11 | 1158872 dashingdwl

Isn't that a $100 million miss?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:12 | 1158880 Pepe

AA raises and then falls obeying law of gravity. Bartiromo's fuel exhausted

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:16 | 1158897 plocequ1

Revenues.. Picky, Picky. Who cares. The fed will take care of it with "Gringo" bucks. Rally on

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:14 | 1158901 Pepe

in any other (civilized) country (non-existent nowadays) CNBC staff would be indicted and charged with disseminating false information.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:26 | 1159398 IQ 145

hey, lighten up; they're not financial experts, they just play one on TV.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:15 | 1158902 The Answer Is 42

After-hours trading of AA halted. WTF?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:24 | 1158943 SheepDog-One

According to CNBC, theyre unable to process all the panic buying orders....

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:26 | 1158954 Rikki-Tikki-Tavi

Very odd indeed - also odd how that 18.2 quote was placed while the stock was halted - just so the price chart could look good for bobble-vision. Surely they will release as soon as the reporting is over - tomorrow everybody will have forgotten AA. Leaves a bad taste in the mouth!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:17 | 1158903 A Man without Q...

Alcoa reminds me of this rather sad looking old stripper who was the first out at a "show" I went to years ago. You know, she really was passed it, everything hung far too low and she wouldn't arouse anyone, but nobody had the heart to say anything and she got a sympathetic applause at the end.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:32 | 1158972 sabra1

can you pleade send my grandma home!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:31 | 1158975 sabra1

can you please send my grandma home!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:10 | 1159542 SheepDog-One

That story of the old stripper reminds me of Maria.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:18 | 1158916 ATG

CNBC headlines and AA turns green on a penny beat:

"Alcoa Earnings Top Forecasts; Shares Rise"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42537881/print/1/displaymode/1098/

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:18 | 1158917 Dangertime

And now begins the correction. I have a feeling this could get very ugly.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:20 | 1158928 SheepDog-One

Well Im sure the Blowhorn has appropriately spun this into a positive, priced it in, and futures can be solidly green by 7 AM.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:24 | 1158936 Caviar Emptor

The "non-recovery" continues to let it's false teeth, hairpiece and shoe lifts show.

Without combined fiscal and monetary stimulus these companies would be in the crapper.

The real economy is in a deflationary depression. The paper economy is bloating more and more every day, driving up the cost of doing business and living. We already know how this is going to end.

Lotsa Luck!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:25 | 1158938 monopoly

AA not that important anymore. Still not shorting this market, but man, I really want to. Waiting for all the pieces to fall into place.

Just the yellow and silver stuff for me.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:24 | 1158942 AC_Doctor

Too bad they don't do tungsten. The COMEX and LBMA could send them some serious business...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:31 | 1158973 irishlink

News from Ireland, Unlike Iceland the Irish people will not get the chance in a referendum to vote wheither we can burn the bondholdewrs and it also looks like we have a lame duck Government who are just puppets and the strings are being pulled, tugged,and manipulated by our FRIENDS in Europe. We are now in reality without a Government. We will have to take a crash course in German and French!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:33 | 1158974 RobotTrader

Still amazed at how the PM sector is the only one that gets immediately crapped on after a nice looking breakout.

Almost a 100% success rate of slamming these stocks within 2 trading days after a breakout where you would expect follow through.

The only sectors that seem to follow though on breakouts are retailers and tech stocks.

Stocks like BIDU that break out and keep going without ever looking back.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:37 | 1159002 SheepDog-One

Youre amazed the FED loves their pet stocks and hates PM's? Then youre an idiot. No seriously.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:37 | 1159003 Hedgetard55

The stupid MOFOs are merely compressing the spring even more.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:34 | 1158990 chinaguy

Bloomberg: Alcoa Profit Tops Analyst Estimates as Aluminum Price Gains

Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported first-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates after prices rose for the lightweight metal.

Net income of $308 million, or 27 cents a share, compares with a loss of $201 million, or 20 cents, a year earlier, New York-based Alcoa said today in a statement. Earnings excluding restructuring costs and other one-time items were 28 cents a share, topping the 27-cent average estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales increased 22 percent to $5.96 billion.

The adjusted profit is the biggest since the company earned 37 cents a share in the third quarter of 2008, when commodity prices tumbled amid the global financial crisis. Aluminum prices have advanced in the past year in London because of improving demand for the metal, which is used in construction, autos and beverage cans

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:36 | 1158995 SheepDog-One

Well its down well over that .37 cents a share they earned after hours.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:43 | 1159022 A Man without Q...

I think there were some pretty high whisper numbers, so make no mistake, this is a bad miss...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:47 | 1159029 SheepDog-One

Down 2% so far.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:07 | 1159100 chinaguy

AA down 3.4% in AH...so......who does the market think is correct ZH or Bloomberg - LOL

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:38 | 1158996 plocequ1

But, But, But..

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/alcoa-swings-to-profit-on-rising-prices...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:40 | 1159006 SheepDog-One

LOL, glowing pumper story and big red negative number right under the headline. Too funny.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:38 | 1158997 PicassoInActions

CNBC right now

Alcoa Earnings Top Forecasts, Pushing Shares Higher"

so, did it missed it ot toped?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:44 | 1159028 SheepDog-One

-2% after hours so far, after a prolonged halt to trading. No doubt to give time for the goyim to get out.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:54 | 1159055 SheepDog-One

'Pushing shares higher'...thats funny to me shares look down 3% or so.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:49 | 1159035 r101958

Every MSM outlet will just lower their 'expectations'. More stock market upside from there.......

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:51 | 1159045 SheepDog-One

I dont think so, its a turning point with more misses to come. Look at Alcoa with a SEVENTY P/E, you cant miss and expect to go up! Anyway, Alcoa trying to cling to $17 AH, down 3%.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:04 | 1159085 r101958

I agree there will be misses....many misses. But the MSM won't play it like it really is. They will lower their predictions prior to the fact and then announce a meet/beat.......

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:06 | 1159091 r101958

.....just like they have done before....that is.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:12 | 1159336 SheepDog-One

Yes they lie, like before, but its not exactly 2008 anymore with the hotshot star Bernanke with his 'plan' in his briefcase to be deployed like a miracle across the land. Its only too obvious to anyone with even a mildly functioning brain that we are in a huge bubble which cost $27 trillion to blow and nothing but window dressing in front of a 'gone out of business' US economy.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:51 | 1159049 RobotTrader

ES futures getting junked after AA miss

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:14 | 1159117 A Man without Q...

I preferred the other girl...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:12 | 1159339 SheepDog-One

Yea that girl sucks.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:32 | 1159379 carbonmutant

Don't you have any good looking fembots?

i.e. Major Kusanagi...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:14 | 1159126 John McCloy

Judge Nap taking Rangel to school on GE not paying taxes yet the dems are begging for raised taxes and he is now the right hand man in the administration.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:18 | 1159350 UGrev

I'll keep saying it. Until ALCOA balls up and tells the unions to go eff off, they will continually miss their marks. The unions are huge time theives. I know first hand.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:24 | 1159387 Quantum Nucleonics

Looks like miss would have been even bigger (looking at cash flow) had they not gutted capex?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:56 | 1159491 JR

SheepDog was correct on this one. With a 70 P/E Alcoa’s miss can’t be covered up this time.

Already the backing and filling is underway.

As Zero Hedge was headlining “Alcoa Misses," MarketWatch was headlining: “Alcoa Kicks Off With Profit.” The latest MarketWatch headline is, “Alcoa Sets Somber Tone.”

Perhaps another way of saying it is, “Earning Season Begins With Somber Tone.” Lesson to be learned here: Stick with ZH if you want the facts.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:23 | 1159589 SheepDog-One

Somethings got to give eventually here, all credibility has been lost. Its not exactly 2008 anymore, and the magicians are getting real boring day after day.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 22:33 | 1160148 luckly123