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America Needs To Add 232,400 Jobs A Month To Get Back To Pre-Depression Job Levels By End Of Obama Second Term
When two months ago we looked at what the implied job creation rate must be for the US to get back to the same level of jobs as December 2007 when the original depression started (now that the recession is over) by the end of Obama's now extremely improbable second term, we arrived at a number of 229,300 per month. Updating for the data two months later, after today's NFP data, results in a breakeven growth rate of 232,400 per month. In other words, America now needs to create an additional 3,100 jobs per month compared to two month earlier, to merely revert to the state in employment last seen in December 2007, let alone create additional jobs. Keep in mind that unlike the economists in the government, we actually index the growth rate to adjust for the growth in the projected labor force which grows at 90,000 per month.
The chart below shows the actual and projected monthly change in NFPs (ex. census) to get to a breakeven by November 2016.
And here is how the cumulative job loss/gain chart would look like as America attempts to revert to the old normal:
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Has there ever been a time with that growth rate?
Michelle, we have unicorns and pixie dust. This is in the bag. Now all we have to do is wait for Bernanke's majikal helicopter to come and dole the stuff out. In the meantime, we have mud pies to enjoy back at the gulag.
Heh. All of America is a cargo cult.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult
Well, maybe it's getting fired up today. Mr. Ben is on his way to Jekyll Island today.
http://www.news4jax.com/news/25625759/detail.html
I doubt he's going to Summer Waves.
http://www.jekyllisland.com/Explore/Attractions/summerwaves.aspx
100th year anniversary bitchez. Hello, hello
No but the former telecom scam artist-cum-high frequency trader guru in our building can hire some babysitters every month to help out. The guy literally said to me in the elevator today, "we're doing 3% to 5% of the volume on the NYSE".
In the absence of meaningful job opportunities, this is what we are left with! Sad!
huh???
He's channeling Jimmy Carter and the result will be the same - 1 Term and it's "88 an out the gate".
well no doubt his black boxes are helping promote the biggest short squeeze on the street. im talking about LVS which is being watched by every trader.when it cracks, it won't be pretty.
at least lovee (that would be ms adelson) had a good two weeks. she owns 86 million shares; so that's a profit of $1.4 billion.
I have heard LVS and SPY (the obvious one) come up in their discussions often
Pardon my ignorance, but what is LVS?
Las Vegas Sands--the "real" casino. - Ned
Unfortunately for the country that is not going to happen.
But the fortunate side affect will be that B.O. will be fired.
No doubt, to be replaced by a genius who will fix all!
Hopefully, O's replacement will understand that his primary role is to find every way possible to get Gubmint the fuck out of the way, who will recognize that Gubmint is a form of cancer that if left unchecked will eventually destroy it host, the citizenry, who understands that he is a Civic Oncologist, endlessly endeavoring to control the cancer.
What if the reality is that due to constraints such as technology productivity, limitations of resources, etc. growth of sustainable jobs is not in our immediate future? Would then make-work be acceptable (even now a significant segment of population is engaged in make-work)? Will society agree to job sharing, shorter work days, etc. to ensure that a significant segment of society is not left behind (long periods of unemployment kills skills).
Each piece of make-work is a newly split cancer cell.
Cancer treatment is painful. Let's feel that pain, or die.
So your preferred policy prescription is that we leave the folks who lose their jobs to their own fate -- it is a choice but a tough choice for an elected official to be seen making.
Correct - pain now (been out of work over a year myself) is preferred to death. If the pols dont' do the right thing, don't man up, don't lead, then the cancer continues to grow, with results worse than pain.
OK, BTW, what's your thought on unending unemployment benefits? Should that be continued and for how long?
I'd prefer that there be no such thing as unemployment benefits. They are cancerous.
By all means, you go first. Put the footage on youtube!
grow baby grow
good analysis.. BUT WHAT OLD NORMAL?????
housing bubble is not normal... stock bubble is not normal..
YOU GUYS STILL DONT GET... it wasnt normal..
NORMAL IS HERE AND NOW... 20+ % unempl,, 1.7 $ trln federal deficit .. QE2 QE3 QE4 ,,,
it's normal..
american people fucked themself shipping jobs,, buying stupid ipads, warring all around the world..
thats it.. its start od end,, all this gonna last for 2,3 years,, then
FEDS start monetize whole federal budget, $ became worhtless,, prices will skyrocket, bonds prices plunge..
alx
ps
mark my word
Well just for the record, I was always against NAFTA GATT and all that crap way back when everyone was saying how good for 'free trade' it would all be.
YES today is normal, 24% unemployment, 45% on food stamps, and everyone living in their bankrupt retired parents basement. Those lucky enough to have paid off their house anyway.
New normal is here! 3rd world USA.
mmmmm. bunny. now "what old normal" you ask. hehehehehehe.
al-
sheesh, no need to bellow.
But I'm afraid that (omg, I'm going to say it) the current situation is unsustainable.
all this gonna last 2, 3 years, so you see it--it isn't normal either.
- Ned
Obama can just start building his personal civilian military by 300,000 per month, they'll need it soon. There! Problem solved.
One big problem with a private army: All the brown shirts will need to be imported from China. There will be no money for that.
So all we are left with is un-uniformed paid gangs roaming the streets. I think welfare has done that already.
They'll be Black Shirts first. Lots'a chaos. Then the Hummingbird, by then the Brown Shirt order will have shipped.
- Ned
Tyler with an uppercut...Hope goes down for the count!
He's not getting up!
This bout's over folks!
I sort of wish you could stop posting these helpful articles for the government stat people. I don't believe they would have figured out the proper number on their own and now they know just how much they need to lie to make things look good on paper.
@ fuu
dont worry ... there's err in calc.. its not 90.000 per month,,
a bit more.. so :)
alx
Will we need QE3 before June 2011?
Wow looks like QE3 might be needed within days already!
Right around that time, not much later. We'll get it too, but by then we won't care.
"What's the half life of a QE?"
Since there is an obvious rate of decay to these things...
It's really close to N-16. - Ned
Americans will migrate out.
Canada's population will double, and so will its economy, investements, house prices... but income will never keep up.
When Canada's housing bubble pops and no one is buying timber ever again, Canada will be just as hosed as the US.
It's true. Harper is an opportunistic squid who has a wicked case of GOPenis-envy.
Indeed, the ponzi is alive and well in Canadia:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-primer-4-cmhc-enabler-canada...
Errr Ummm, its not as simple as timber...
The world would have to stop buying all of the following for Canada to truly suffer:
GRAINS
COAL
OIL
WATER
FERTILIZER
and MANY MANY others...
Tyler Durden-- Just give up! Will ya already? The Fed can never go under. Never. No matter WHAT occurs, the Fed will print money. All this talk about dissolving the Fed yada yada yada.
If BofA is insolvent and it fails, the Fed will bail them out. The FDIC in the red $47 BILLION? DONTWORRYABOUTIT! The Fed will save it. Social Security is in the red for 20 months and unfunded by $1.7 TRILLION? Answer: The FED.
I don't see people rioting in the streets because of the injustice. I don't see people getting out of their Lay-Z-Boy armchairs and storming Wall Street/DC. I don't see anything like that. In fact, it's pretty much useless to even post the truth. Your website is great and all but it does nothing but get a small group of informed, educated people boiling mad... I'm sorry to say but it seems your website is a lost cause.
If you can't beat 'em, join 'em, you know?
Sad but true.
Though, one objection: the FED will not be brought down by people, but by hyperinflation.
Inflation in necessities and deflation in housing. Once the American Nightmare is experienced by enough of the population, complacency won't be affordable.
A very dangerous game of money printing- monetizing government debt- is now being fully unleashed.
The problem with the PTB is they believe their own propaganda and drink their own bathwater.
I hope you are right- that complacency will abound. I don't think that is going to happen if groceries and gas keep rising.
Several times this yr on ZH, a report on the funds coming into the UST, and expenses especially for SSA. Does anyone have those links?-108
How do you get an Aggie to...nah, never mind ;-)
I do google site searches in "advanced search". Since GOOG promises to do no evil, I know that they are safe.
Hook 'em.
- Ned
"Social Security is in the red for 20 months"
Got a link for evidence of that assertion?
Come to think of it, it's 18 months not 20, if my memory serves me. Where I read that, I'll have to get back to you but I'm certain someone here probably has read that as well.
Eureka! I found it, but I think that your number is low. Look at e.g.:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/05/news/economy/social_security_trustees_re...
20 months? Way I'm reading it, it is fo'evah!
- Ned
Thank you new_meat. That was not the one I was referring to but still does the work!
"If you can't beat 'em, join 'em, you know?" I'm sure the gov't and Wall Street are handing out six figure jobs with huge bonuses to anyone that inquires about them...
If only it was that easy. My firm (on Whore Street) recently cut ~400 employees and talking to mr big, there's no hiring planned for the immediate future as long as trading levels from retail remains near, zero. And right now, that's seems to be forever.
Well, 3 junks and no explainations? You people are scum.
JLR, welcome to Fight Club.
Stun Gun
@ carbonmutant
no.. thsi show will go on for 2+ eyars.. more
only purpose of FED is print money to balance federal budget..
federal revenues are flat y/y..( ~ 2.1 trln $) fedeal outlays are 3.7 - 4 trln $ ,, and growing +5% per anum..
so QE3 (jun2011- jun 2012) gonna be 2- 2.2 trnl$,, then
QE4- 2.6 trln $,, then QE5 - 3 $ trln
then around 2014-2015 collapse..
or sooner if someone like military , CIA, FBI will make a coup d'etat..
hang on pal
alx
While the band play on, the already battered and bloodied consumer is in for another punch -- higher food and fuel prices...and down she goes...sadly...
market anticipated a higher than expected jobs report and got it. leave it at that. "fear the beard" will be our watchword going into 2011.
owebama 2nd term? Nice troll!
If you are going to cut at all, might as well cut deep.
Yeah but fortunately most people don't need to pay their mortgages anymore so even if they don't have a job this allows them to keep buying burrito bowls at Chipotle (and shares in CMG)
@ociety agree to job sharing, shorter work days, etc. to ensure that a significant segment of soci
how does it change problem w/ unempoylment?? instead of 1 workng + 1 not working gonnabe 2 underemployed..
no pal its wrong..
ONLY REAL SOLUTION IS to get returned middle class, 20-30 $ per hour jobs.. in order to do that this must be done
#1 gradually increase tariffs on stuff from low cost production countries ( S Asia, S. americ etc).. US cant compete.. and you cant do it in one shoot.. businessmans need time/money to re-build, build factories , tradin people here.. yes t-shirts gonna cost 10 bucks more.. so what ??
#2 decrease taxes and federal expenses..
all war bases around world,, all help to poor people..etc
#3 illegal immigration
build the fence, clean out all illegal immgrants.. of course we need highly quilifed foreigners , lets say 200..000 -500,000 per anum,, but only w/ advanced degrees,, and wages at least +90.000 per anum ,, thats it..
alx
If everything costs more, what does it matter if wages go up?
Excellent comments, Sir Alex.
Everyone else: listen to the Professor,
http://www.democracynow.org/2010/11/5/new_600b_fed_stimulus_fuels_fears
You don't understand the concept of "internationalism" do you?
It seems like it was just yesterday when the primary concern was the potential for a scarcity of skilled labor due to the early retirement of baby boomers who were witnessing their investment in pets.com and exodus communications reach dizzying heights.
The price of cotton and corn is going mad. Early signs of hyperinflation?
Piece of cake - lemme turn that birth/death model knob all the way to 11
not only do jobs need to grow at a torrid pace compared to what we have seen this year but the jobs growth we are seeing now is inflationary jobs growth....it is not based upon prosperity or fundamental economic health.....
the great inflationary tsunami is making waves....one of the clearest signs of inflation's effects is a fake sense of prosperity....and just as soon as everyone has proclaimed peace, peace, there will be a tidal wave of price increases....we are in the sucker period.
Step One to Recovery: ALL western economies must slam the door on immigration for 3 to 5 years. PRIME THE ECONOMIC PUMP! Give the unemployed here a chance to find a job! Why are the doors still open? It's a simple, non-political question!!! Too many workers for too few jobs.
Zero Hedge should start an online petition: www.primethepumpusa.com
Tell the politicians to get serious about unemployment and the endless importation of surplus workers...it's time for a 'time out'!
WHAT 2ND TERM???!!!!!
Talk about your false premise...
Barry Obummer aka Puppet of Wall Street...
Yooourrr-ouuutaa-therrrreeee.... To use MLB fan terminology...
"Barry Obummer aka Puppet of Wall Street.."
Which is EXACTLY why he'll most likely have a second term in the White House.
When Clinton's second run came due, they ran the weakest of all possible candidates, "Viagra" Bob Dole. (And Clinton delivered on the Telecommunications Act, "Welfare Reform" thanks to billionaire Peter G. Peterson who headed that commission, of course, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Services Modernization Act, and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, etc., etc.)
They'll run either a Sarah Palin or Random Paul against Obama, and attempt to use that very, very, very tired "lesser of two evils" strategy.
Any way you cut it....evil is evil.
People always forget the obvious: Clinton "gives" the Chicoms the over-the-horizon missile targeting technology back in 1998, then American (under Bush) rolls easily into Iraq, as those Chicoms built their air defenses and countermeasures, and forked them over in return for that earlier "gift" of that missile tech (which placed America at least 25 years ahead of everyone else).
Obama appoints Sotomayor to the US Supreme Court -- because she had a favorable rating from the insurance industry, and was his insurance policy for the health insurance industry under the improbable event they were undable to disassemble that health insurance legislation of his (leaving in the parts which benefitted the health insurance and pharmaceuctical industries, of course!).
Yeah but... Did you like my photo?
Very topical per Tyler's headline... don't ya think?
What about all of the college students graduating and there are no jobs?
A look into the employment report shows Walmart is hiring. So is Burger King. So is Kmart.
At $7.25/hr you can repay your $120k in student debt in about 40 years, just in time to collect SS.
Aren't things great?
while eating cat food and living in a shanty in the meantime... and that shanty probably has to be shared with at least 3 others in the same situation... doh!
hey, at least it's nondischargeable.
At this point, jobs is jobs. Whenever someone says to me 'why don't people on welfare get a job' I always say 'ok, would you hire them?' Point is, we have our own graduates coming into the market and they simply don't stand a chance. End the guest worker program/incentivize domestic employment, and quadruple the fines for hiring illegal workers. ANYTHING to get people working again, start collecting taxes again and stop paying out on social programs. This downturn (aka wipeout) is gonna stay for some time, especially if the Fed/political parties keep ignoring gravity for the sake of the 'classe sterile' (Wall Street).
O/T
Yet a third lawsuit filed on JPM and HSBC involving silver manipulation:
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Kaplan-Fox-Sues-JP-Morgan-HSBC-o...
This is gonna be fun folks.
There is NO BAD NEWS, ever. All hail the ALMIGHTY FED! Any bad news, henceforth is automatically shreded and used as cat litter. Chant with me! FED! FED! FED! FED! FED!
E pluibipus unum, god shave the queen and all that good stuff
Flat day today is making me think Monday will be a huge up day on with the magical Mutual Fund Mondays back in full effect after the Fed injection. Just like last time.
@Come to think of it, it's 18 months not 20, if my memory serves me. Where I read
its very easy to find out.. Bruce Kasting wrote alot about..
got to http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/tsOps.html
there're income-otcome of OASI+DI
here's outcome by qrt:
Qtr 1, 2009 $167.2
Qtr 2, 2009 174.3
Qtr 3, 2009 171.3
Qtr 4, 2009 173.0
Qtr 1, 2010 174.1
Qtr 2, 2010 181.2
Qtr 3, 2010 177.9
income by qrt
Total income Net contributions
Qtr 1, 2009 $185.3 $178.9
Qtr 2, 2009 251.8 187.2
Qtr 3, 2009 160.7 155.1
Qtr 4, 2009 209.8 146.1
Qtr 1, 2010 172.9 166.2
Qtr 2, 2010 246.4 180.6
Qtr 3, 2010 158.8 153.7
trick is: SS couns not only direct money from taxes (2 column), but also
%gains from so called SS surplus ( its 'intra goverment holdings' item in USA debt )
so, those % is around 50 bln per qrt..
trick is ITS NOT MONEY AS SS surplus ALREADY SPENT, SO ITS DEBT TOO..
but goverment double count those.. :((((((( bastards..
so,,net-net since 3qrt of 2009 more money out , less money in..
worse,, SS money decrese y/y (despite so caled job gains) ,
but expenses up,, as more retires..
SS is fucked.. too
alx
Forget the number 232,400 (jobs a month).
Instead, focus on the more important questions, namely:
What kind of jobs...???
Jobs doing what...???
Jobs located where doing what...?!?!
Even if all of a sudden American universities stopped turning out nearly credentials English majors and sociology majors in favor of chemists, biologists, engineers, physicists, and other highly skilled professions who have been properly trained to actually do something...
(*SIGH*)
...where would these people all work?
This ain't 1942 kids!
Hell... this ain't 1981!
What... should we create another housing bubble so that the construction trades prosper?
(And bear in mind folks... we're now importing lumber... steel... cement... as never before as a percentage of materials used. The domino effect of construction ain't what it once was.)
More doctors, nurses, and medical technicians?
O.K. No doubt we're gonna need plenty of medical man... er... peoplepower... to make up for the loses caused by lack of tort reform and the passage of ObamaCare (not to mention plain old demographics), but here's the flip side: consumers and increasingly taxpayers will have to shoulder the ever growing financial burden of paying for each new nurse, doctor, medical technician, and medical paper pusher.
(*SHRUG*)
I know some scoff at the idea of actually making things in this country as opposed to simply buying things on credit (both the things and the credit) produced and shipped from overseas, but I've gotta tell ya... those folks are morons.
Anyway...
BILL
Well said.
My prescription for fixing America:
1. Close the law schools for twenty years. We have enough lawyers already.
2. Roll back existing legislation. Start with the most recent law passed and work backwards. Repeal them all, one-by-one. Stop when you get to the year 1912 or 5% unemployment, whichever comes first.
3. Change immigration policies to favor hot, young foreign women, particularly from Latin American and Southeast Asian countries. This will inspire increased male productivity and creativity, as we compete for these females.
4. Sell the Navy to China.
5. Eliminate all federal, state and local government involvement in primary education. Admit failure. Close the schools, sell the assets, return the money to the taxpayers, and get out of the business. Many of America's problems originate with the abysmal education system.
That will get 90% of the job done, which is good enough.
Looking good, but there is so much stupid regulation, for your No. 2, I'd say to start with tall poles, like Smoot-Hawley. No. 3 will be good for PM and skilled artisans in that competition.
Here in MA, we are quite serious about the separation of Church and State (even though MA used to have an official state religion). But we don't do that any more. That is why it is possible for the teachers' union http://www.nea.org/ to have an office in the state house.
- Ned
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My long term indicators continue to warn of USD strength and EURO weakness.
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