America Needs To Add 232,400 Jobs A Month To Get Back To Pre-Depression Job Levels By End Of Obama Second Term

Tyler Durden's picture

When two months ago we looked at what the implied job creation rate must be for the US to get back to the same level of jobs as December 2007 when the original depression started (now that the recession is over) by the end of Obama's now extremely improbable second term, we arrived at a number of 229,300 per month. Updating for the data two months later, after today's NFP data, results in a breakeven growth rate of 232,400 per month. In other words, America now needs to create an additional 3,100 jobs per month compared to two month earlier, to merely revert to the state in employment last seen in December 2007, let alone create additional jobs. Keep in mind that unlike the economists in the government, we actually index the growth rate to adjust for the growth in the projected labor force which grows at 90,000 per month.

The chart below shows the actual and projected monthly change in NFPs (ex. census) to get to a breakeven by November 2016.

And here is how the cumulative job loss/gain chart would look like as America attempts to revert to the old normal:

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-Michelle-'s picture

Has there ever been a time with that growth rate?

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Michelle, we have unicorns and pixie dust.  This is in the bag.  Now all we have to do is wait for Bernanke's majikal helicopter to come and dole the stuff out.  In the meantime, we have mud pies to enjoy back at the gulag.

-Michelle-'s picture

Well, maybe it's getting fired up today.  Mr. Ben is on his way to Jekyll Island today.

I doubt he's going to Summer Waves.

Scarticia's picture

100th year anniversary bitchez.  Hello, hello

Cvillian's picture

No but the former telecom scam artist-cum-high frequency trader guru in our building can hire some babysitters every month to help out. The guy literally said to me in the elevator today, "we're doing 3% to 5% of the volume on the NYSE".


IBelieveInMagic's picture

In the absence of meaningful job opportunities, this is what we are left with! Sad!

Rasna's picture
... By End Of Obama Second Term



He's channeling Jimmy Carter and the result will be the same - 1 Term and it's "88 an out the gate".

Careless Whisper's picture

well no doubt his black boxes are helping promote the biggest short squeeze on the street. im talking about LVS which is being watched by every trader.when it cracks, it won't be pretty.

at least lovee (that would be ms adelson) had a good two weeks. she owns 86 million shares; so that's a profit of $1.4 billion.



Cvillian's picture

I have heard LVS and SPY (the obvious one) come up in their discussions often

Rasna's picture

Pardon my ignorance, but what is LVS?

New_Meat's picture

Las Vegas Sands--the "real" casino. - Ned

shushup's picture

Unfortunately for the country that is not going to happen.

But the fortunate side affect will be that B.O. will be fired.

IBelieveInMagic's picture

No doubt, to be replaced by a genius who will fix all!

TuesdayBen's picture

Hopefully, O's replacement will understand that his primary role is to find every way possible to get Gubmint the fuck out of the way, who will recognize that Gubmint is a form of cancer that if left unchecked will eventually destroy it host, the citizenry, who understands that he is a Civic Oncologist, endlessly endeavoring to control the cancer.

IBelieveInMagic's picture

What if the reality is that due to constraints such as technology productivity, limitations of resources, etc. growth of sustainable jobs is not in our immediate future? Would then make-work be acceptable (even now a significant segment of population is engaged in make-work)? Will society agree to job sharing, shorter work days, etc. to ensure that a significant segment of society is not left behind (long periods of unemployment kills skills). 


TuesdayBen's picture

Each piece of make-work is a newly split cancer cell.

Cancer treatment is painful.  Let's feel that pain, or die.

IBelieveInMagic's picture

So your preferred policy prescription is that we leave the folks who lose their jobs to their own fate -- it is a choice but a tough choice for an elected official to be seen making.

TuesdayBen's picture

Correct - pain now (been out of work over a year myself) is preferred to death.  If the pols dont' do the right thing, don't man up, don't lead, then the cancer continues to grow, with results worse than pain.

IBelieveInMagic's picture

OK, BTW, what's your thought on unending unemployment benefits? Should that be continued and for how long?

TuesdayBen's picture

I'd prefer that there be no such thing as unemployment benefits.  They are cancerous.

Eureka Springs's picture

By all means, you go first. Put the footage on youtube!

bugs_'s picture

grow baby grow

alexwest's picture

good analysis.. BUT WHAT OLD NORMAL?????

housing bubble is not normal... stock bubble is  not normal..

YOU GUYS STILL DONT GET... it wasnt normal..

NORMAL IS HERE AND NOW... 20+ % unempl,, 1.7 $  trln federal deficit .. QE2 QE3 QE4 ,,,

it's normal..

american people fucked themself shipping jobs,, buying stupid ipads, warring all around the world..

thats it.. its start od end,, all this gonna last for 2,3 years,, then

FEDS start monetize whole federal budget, $ became worhtless,, prices will skyrocket, bonds prices plunge..



mark my word

SheepDog-One's picture

Well just for the record, I was always against NAFTA GATT and all that crap way back when everyone was saying how good for 'free trade' it would all be.
YES today is normal, 24% unemployment, 45% on food stamps, and everyone living in their bankrupt retired parents basement. Those lucky enough to have paid off their house anyway.
New normal is here! 3rd world USA.

doolittlegeorge's picture

mmmmm.   bunny.  now "what old normal" you ask.  hehehehehehe.

New_Meat's picture


"NORMAL IS HERE AND NOW" ..."mark my word."

sheesh, no need to bellow.

But I'm afraid that (omg, I'm going to say it) the current situation is unsustainable.

all this gonna last 2, 3 years, so you see it--it isn't normal either.

- Ned

SheepDog-One's picture

Obama can just start building his personal civilian military by 300,000 per month, they'll need it soon. There! Problem solved.

Printfaster's picture

One big problem with a private army:  All the brown shirts will need to be imported from China.  There will be no money for that.

So all we are left with is un-uniformed paid gangs roaming the streets.  I think welfare has done that already.

New_Meat's picture

They'll be Black Shirts first.  Lots'a chaos.  Then the Hummingbird, by then the Brown Shirt order will have shipped.

- Ned

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Tyler with an uppercut...Hope goes down for the count!

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

He's not getting up!

This bout's over folks!

fuu's picture

I sort of wish you could stop posting these helpful articles for the government stat people. I don't believe they would have figured out the proper number on their own and now they know just how much they need to lie to make things look good on paper.

alexwest's picture

@ fuu

dont worry ... there's err in calc.. its not 90.000 per month,,

a bit more..  so  :)


carbonmutant's picture

Will we need QE3 before June 2011?

SheepDog-One's picture

Wow looks like QE3 might be needed within days already!

cougar_w's picture

Right around that time, not much later. We'll get it too, but by then we won't care.

carbonmutant's picture

"What's the half life of a QE?"

Since there is an obvious rate of decay to these things...

New_Meat's picture

It's really close to N-16. - Ned

andyupnorth's picture

Americans will migrate out.

Canada's population will double, and so will its economy, investements, house prices... but income will never keep up.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

When Canada's housing bubble pops and no one is buying timber ever again, Canada will be just as hosed as the US.

Slartibartfast's picture

It's true. Harper is an opportunistic squid who has a wicked case of GOPenis-envy.

CheapKUNGFU's picture

Errr Ummm, its not as simple as timber...

The world would have to stop buying all of the following for Canada to truly suffer:






and MANY MANY others...

jus_lite_reading's picture

Tyler Durden-- Just give up! Will ya already? The Fed can never go under. Never. No matter WHAT occurs, the Fed will print money. All this talk about dissolving the Fed yada yada yada.

If BofA is insolvent and it fails, the Fed will bail them out. The FDIC in the red $47 BILLION? DONTWORRYABOUTIT! The Fed will save it. Social Security is in the red for 20 months and unfunded by $1.7 TRILLION? Answer: The FED.

I don't see people rioting in the streets because of the injustice. I don't see people getting out of their Lay-Z-Boy armchairs and storming Wall Street/DC. I don't see anything like that. In fact, it's pretty much useless to even post the truth. Your website is great and all but it does nothing but get a small group of informed, educated people boiling mad... I'm sorry to say but it seems your website is a lost cause.

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em, you know?

TheGreatPonzi's picture

Sad but true.

Though, one objection: the FED will not be brought down by people, but by hyperinflation.

Kayman's picture

Inflation in necessities and deflation in housing.  Once the American Nightmare is experienced by enough of the population, complacency won't be affordable.

A very dangerous game of money printing- monetizing government debt- is now being fully unleashed.

The problem with the PTB is they believe their own propaganda and drink their own bathwater.

I hope you are right- that complacency will abound.  I don't think that is going to happen if groceries and gas keep rising.

TexasAggie's picture

Several times this yr on ZH, a report on the funds coming into the UST, and expenses especially for SSA.  Does anyone have those links?-108

New_Meat's picture

How do you get an Aggie to...nah, never mind ;-)

I do google site searches in "advanced search".  Since GOOG promises to do no evil, I know that they are safe.

Hook 'em.

- Ned

Eureka Springs's picture

 "Social Security is in the red for 20 months"


Got a link for evidence of that assertion?