America Needs To Add 232,400 Jobs A Month To Get Back To Pre-Depression Job Levels By End Of Obama Second Term
When two months ago we looked at what the implied job creation rate must be for the US to get back to the same level of jobs as December 2007 when the original depression started (now that the recession is over) by the end of Obama's now extremely improbable second term, we arrived at a number of 229,300 per month. Updating for the data two months later, after today's NFP data, results in a breakeven growth rate of 232,400 per month. In other words, America now needs to create an additional 3,100 jobs per month compared to two month earlier, to merely revert to the state in employment last seen in December 2007, let alone create additional jobs. Keep in mind that unlike the economists in the government, we actually index the growth rate to adjust for the growth in the projected labor force which grows at 90,000 per month.
The chart below shows the actual and projected monthly change in NFPs (ex. census) to get to a breakeven by November 2016.
And here is how the cumulative job loss/gain chart would look like as America attempts to revert to the old normal: