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America Will Pass $13 Trillion In Total Debt Next Tuesday; $397 Billion In Debt Rolled Month To Date
Total US debt just hit $12,987,823,000,000, $13 billion from lucky $13 trillion. As next week the US Treasury is auctioning off another gross $140+ billion in Bonds, we will pass this totally irrelevant resistance level on May 25, when Timmy issues another $42 billion of 2 Year Notes. The next important support level of $14 trillion will be surpassed around the time the Democrats get destroyed in the mid-term elections, while the statutory debt limit of $14.3 trillion will likely have to be raised in January 2011 by a new republican majority, an action which will promptly reduce popular republican support following their ladnslide election victory, thus starting the pointless D->R->D->R etc cycle all over again. Also, at approximately that time headlines that US debt is now 100% of GDP will bring the US bond vigilantes out of hibernation and will send US interest rates soaring, assisted by Ben Bernanke's most recent announcement that the Fed will is once again"forced" to purchase another $1.5 trillion in treasuries and mortgages.
Stepping away from the Ouija board, we also notice that so far in April, the Treasury has rolled another unsustainable amount of Treasuries: $397 billion, of which $$359 billion is in Bills.
The clock to the US' hyperstagflationary period is now ticking louder than ever
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As far as I can tell, the Chinese are perfectly happy to keep buying the debt - so long as they're allowed to buy up hard assets in the US and abroad.
Who the hell cares about the US anymore? It's a bizarre hodgepodge of 330,00,000 people who think they ought to be running the world. It's failed to innovate. It's failed to offer new ideas. The political process is completely unmanageable.
I just kind of see the culture as the UK right before it lost its empire.
UST will probably just stay the way it is for a while, but municipalities are going to get blown up.
The culture is in for some shocks... it doesn't mean that you can't make money from it, but I doubt that many people are ready for this shit.
Hi all!
It is Friday night and time for some fun!
How about the World Cup and the Stock Market!
Interesting Data.. based on data.. this will tell you where the markets should be by the end of the World Cup!
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2010/05/22/world-cup-and-the-stock-market/
Who makes himself a sheep will be eaten by the wolves.
Hey America! Look what happened while you were watching The Simpsons. Wheee!
No poblemo. I do not see a poblemo here.
Economic strategy:
Europe is doing a good job of shooting itself in the foot. They have structural problems with the Euro - that will take years to play out. They are out of the picture as far as being an economic challenge to the US.
So - that takes us to China. property bubble. Their largest export destination - Europe. Due to their peg to the Dollar - their currency has gained hugely against the Euro - guess what that will do for their trade. This may be the catalyst for them to un-peg from the Dollar - and depreciate their currency.
Korea geopolitics looks dicey. may be the thing that embroils the region .
Japan - was never a threat to the US economically - and becoming less so now.
That leaves the US as king of the hill ( once China starts its downward spiral). With a super strong currency - we will be able to once again do whatever we want in the world.
I sit here wondering, considering your username, is this post supposed to be serious? Super strong currency? Are you kidding me? "Less weak" is more like it.
Only during extraordinary times would a run to a diluting currency be considered a "flight to safety".
you think germany will quit producing ? no way.
super strong paper i reccomend is duct tape.
The dollar is a wasted paper, a weakend , worthless promise, a note of doubt and ill repute by association. Viagra only works for 12 hours and then the hair grows back on your hands.
Which brings me to the topic of this thread - rates. It is clear that the US cannot afford higher rates - the arithmetic breaks down. Therefore - we get the Dollar super strong - and rates super low - for a long long time. Can this be done? Its happening as we speak. The Dollar is not strong because we have higher rates - is it?
Other countries who try to peg themselves to the Dollar and keep rates too low - will find themselves with runaway - property bubbles ( Asia) - that can then be toppled by just breathing hard . Which will leave their banking systems digging out of a very deep hole for a very long time. They'll be forced to depeg from the Dollar, raise rates significantly - just to keep their currencies viable and asset prices under control.
The Dollar is strong because it's the worlds ultimate reserve currency, oil and commodities are traded in it, and because US bankruptcy history makes it a historically strong currency.
But a flight to safety to a currency rapidly diluting will not go on forever. Investors will wake up at some point. Look at US Treasury holdings held by the Chinese and Japanese over the past year - they practically haven't moved.
oil is in demand because of the US Govts strong dollar policy... or is that the other way around?
Anyone who wants oil, has to exchange their local currency to Dollars. Demand for Dollars = increase in price.
Exhibit
a)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/federal-debt-to-gdp-politics-update.gif
b)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/c9/Dollar_value_chart.gif
And what if the "inflate that byatch" was not the best solution at all. And what if allowing the business cycle to run its course while avoiding the central planning and learning to live with it would make us all better off?
The role of the markets (all) is to efficiently distribute the resource (economy) and it is done by providing the information about value, etc. Is the artificial certainty that obviously erodes the correct value related information and leads to the externalises (waste) more valuable than reaching the full market potential but learning to live with the reality (business cycle)?
If the economic players (us) knew that business cycle is inevitable and no one will bail us out (government can't control the economy) would we be more likely to adjust and oversee our risky behavior and as the result lower the probability of the large and destructive asset bubbles?
http://maxkeiser1.blogspot.com/
.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=19107
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http://maxkeiser.com/
Gold bitches?
hey... now there's a novel idea.
(we just crack ourselves up, don't we...)
R-D-R-R
When do they call 'time'?
At what point do they give up extending QE?
If one is to combine the US federal debt plus that of all states, will the total debt to GDP per cent surpass that of Greece? My instincts say yes.
Hopefully we still have the most powerful military when the crap hits the fan. It may come in handy when people expect us to actually pay our debts.
That is what it has always been all about Lawton. These crooks have no concerns about diminishing our way of life, suppressing liberties and operating a reverse Robin Hood political and economic system before our eyes.
Do you really think they give a damn about the remainder of the world? It is and always has been about military supremacy, geopolitical control of the Atlantic & Pacific and the ability to say, "were not paying, were closing our borders and go figure it out amongst yourselves"
The wealthiest top 1% of the US population has more wealth than all the bottom 95%
But, on a positive note, they're just as flammable.
and smelly
An easy £1000, anyone?
http://www.cobdencentre.org/2010/05/the-emperors-new-clothes-how-to-pay-off-the-national-debt-give-a-28-5-tax-cut/
Okay, I have the mathematics of U.S. Treasury rates all figured out.
Rasputin
- Sat, May 22, 2010 - 07:56 AM
Frankly, while no one ever nominated the ill-educated Rasputin for the
"Mathematecian of the Year" award, even he can cipher well enough to
predict the trend in U.S. Treasury interest rates.
Here's the methodology:
Back in 1980, when Uncle Gorilla had racked up his first measly
trillion fiatscos of debt (and a then-young and greenhorn Ras was
screeching "This can't go on!"), 3-month T-bill rates were a whopping:
SIXTEEN FRIGGIN' PERCENT APR
...as the "bond vigilantes" (who have subsequently morphed into
Fed-front-running PigMen) punished the spendthrift Uncle for his
profligacy.
Fast-forward to today. Now we see that the not-at-all-reformed
Uncle Gorilla has amassed a gargantuan:
THIRTEEN TRILLION FIATSCOS (plus tens of trillions more in
contingent liabilities)
...of debt, yet 3-month T-bill rates have dropped a staggering:
OVER ONE THOUSAND PERCENT
...to today's:
.015% APR.
...which reflects how much the "Bond Vigilante" game has changed,
as noted above.
(Ras Conclusion) Pulling out the trusty Rasputin abacus, it is a
simple matter of extrapolation to predict the trend going forward.
Expect, over the next thirty years, total Treasury debt to grow ANOTHER
thirteen times, to:.
ONE-HUNDRED SIXTY NINE TRILLION
...and interest rates in T-bills to collapse ANOTHER one-thousand
percent to:
.000015% APR
Gee, I never thought mathematics and predictions eould be so easy.
And an update from the fiat front lines...where the "Infinite Fiat Firehose" continues
to spew fresh fiatscos at at rate that puts the BP "oil volcano" to
shame.
From Doug Noland's latest "Credit Bubble Bulletin", found here:
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10379
...comes these latest statistics:
"Federal Reserve Credit surged $28.9bn last week to a record $2.339
TN. Fed Credit was up $119bn y-t-d (14% annualized) and $174bn, or
8.0%, from a year ago. Elsewhere... "Custody holdings" have increased
$101bn y-t-d (8.9% annualized), with a one-year rise of $347bn, or
12.8%.
M2 (narrow) "money" supply was up $25.3bn to $8.530 TN (week of
5/10)...Over the past year, M2 grew 1.5%. For the week, Currency added
$1.1bn... Savings Deposits surged $67.3bn...
International reserve assets (excluding gold) - as tallied by
Bloombergs Alex Tanzi, were up $1.679 TN y-o-y, or 25.1%, to a record
$8.379 TN. Reserves in China increased 25.3% y-o-y to $2.447"
(Ras Conclusion):So, despite the constant screechings of the
perma-doomer-deflationists, total fiatsco supply has INCREASED overall
during the more-than two years since the "Great Credit Collapse"
supposedly began.
Moving on to other areas of perfect logic and reason, I see that
despite the fact that the EU has now virtually officially approved the
trillion-sclero "rescue package"/monetization, buggy whips (gold) has been
pounded down nearly seventy-five fiatscos in one friggin' week.
Heh, too bad I couldn't bring myself to part with any of my
barbarous relic stash (but luckily for me, DID manage to trade my spoons (silver) for nightcrawlers before silver completely collapsed), or I could have
avoided yet another beating at the hands of the "Evil Cabal".
A Cabal that, according to certain "Generals" and their Walter
Mitty minions, are gonna get "carried out on stretchers any minute now,
we swear!".
Alas, now I must either ride my whips back down to three-hundred
fifty-ish fiatscos (the price at which I purchased the preponderance of
them), or hope that there is one more little upward pop before the next
TPTB smackdown, and scale out of them then.
Because I simply refuse to panic out of them at this point.
(Ras Conclusion): So, there are your math and logic lessons for
this morning. Armed with this new-found knowledge, you too can be the
"Forecasting Mac Daddy" of your neighborhood!
Thread hijack: didn't realize that bank protests are going on in DC. very interesting,
here is a video link
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/17/bank-of-america-protest-d_n_578539.html
"I explained to Wells Fargo what the hardship was, and they laughed at me," he said, tears streaming down his face
See, this is why I hate the HPost. I don't care whether tears, marmelade or the BP oil slick was streming down his face; it is completely unnecessary to mix the emotional with the factual.
Well it's about time people! But really. way to go. do not take this anymore!
"tellers retreated to an interior room." -that was my favorite part. it was like they were prepared for it. this story will hopefully be a daily occurrence this summer.
TPTB? - too poor to bleed?
http://maxkeiser.com/2010/05/
.
good chats.
Lost in all this talk of a $13 Trillion deficit is what it would take to pay that off in tax receipts. Let's do the math.
Assume 38% effective tax rate (I know, I know, just go with it.).
That would require $34.2 Trillion in net taxable income.
Assuming a 10% net profit, would require $342 Trillion in net sales over and above existing World GDP to retire the U.S. debt obligations.
Forget about unfunded liabilities.
BANKRUPT
Why are the Feds even trying to hold this together anymore?
"The clock to the US' hyperstagflationary period is now"...one minute 'till midnight.
The March 2009 lows won't hold.
Updated DOW daily and weekly charts:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
Why do you say that? Why do you think the March lows will not hold?
The clock to the US' hyperstagflationary period is now ticking louder than ever
Investopedia dot friggin com is useless!!
A Community Activist has every bit of succeeding at President as anyone in any other profession. Exceptionalism can be found in all walks of life.
The problem is duping an entire populace into believing they have "elected" a leader who is in reality a pre-chosen figurehead for a hidden group of "elites" that actually call the shots.
I am Chumbawamba.
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