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America's Fiscal Dead End: A 2013 "Minsky Moment"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Often times we are amazed that Deutsche Bank's Peter Hooper works in the same place as that other "economist." The reason is that yesterday, Hooper, who tends to have some of the most original sellside thoughts, came out with one of the best summaries of America's fiscal dead end:an 8 page summary far more accurate and detailed than anything to ever come out of the rating agencies, yet one which reaches the correct conclusion. What is startling is that a Wall Street institution (well technically desk.... there is of course that other "economist") is willing to come to grips with the truth. Which according to Hooper is rather ugly: America may have 2 years at the most before it all comes crashing down when the world's former superpower hits its own Minsky Moment.

Hooper's summation:

A 2013 solution? A bigger risk is that after having raised expectations that more fundamental progress can be made in dealing with the unsustainable US fiscal position, the political process breaks down and no meaningful progress is made even with the debt ceiling and default avoided. Certainly it will be difficult for any elected politician to be too specific about major cuts in entitlement benefits or increases in taxes ahead of the next election. The Obama Administration is likely to resist measures that could add significantly more fiscal drag than is already in the pipeline for 2012. Scuttling the still fragile recovery could be political suicide. In any event, it would make sense to have fundamental decisions about the size and redistributive nature of the US government made after a full airing of this debate in the next Presidential election. If the ratings agencies and the market give the US government the benefit of the doubt for a time, given that the debate has begun and recognizing that any longer-term  resolution will be difficult in an election season, a better opportunity for resolution may come in 2013. Conventional wisdom  holds that if the economic recovery progresses as expected, President Obama will be re-elected. At the same time, assuming the Ryan plan does not backfire, the political winds may favor a Republican takeover of the Senate, given that nearly twice as many Democrats in the Senate are up for reelection as Republicans, and only a three-vote swing is needed. A Democratic President dealing with a Republican Congress and a popular mandate to resolve the fiscal problem would be a repeat of the  conditions that led to the last major fiscal reform move with President Clinton in the early-mid 1990s. And Obama would have the added advantage of being a second term president. This mix would necessitate a political compromise in a case where compromise will clearly be needed to achieve a lasting resolution. However, there are no guarantees that such a scenario would materialize, and even if it did, deep-seated political differences on taxes and spending could still prevent a resolution of the problem in 2013. In this case, markets could very well balk, leading to a US Minsky moment, with potentially far greater  consequences than the one Europe has experienced.

Full report:

US Minsky Moment

 

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Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:07 | 1193448 Popo
Popo's picture

It's more like a Wile E. Coyote moment.     We left the edge of the cliff a while back... now we're blinking and looking down...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:07 | 1193460 capitallosses
capitallosses's picture

No worry, the cartoonists in DC will just redraw the edge of cliff endlessly.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:12 | 1193481 Misean
Misean's picture

Yep. Exactly.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:20 | 1193531 zeek
zeek's picture

no worries... they've got a nice soft landing planned for us in the new "globalized financial structure"...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:42 | 1193968 Pedro
Pedro's picture

I hope not.  I am enjoying the current "Ministry of Fiscal Magic".

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 19:35 | 1205785 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

right?  after a nice, smooth, "transitory" period where we might expect a "little" turbulence.  lol.  we're fucked!

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 06:45 | 1195581 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

There is always and end, even when sound economics is replaced by pure money printing to extend financial life. It all comes down to Brand awareness. America has gone from Tiffany's of old, to Tiffany's today, where any Skank can own a charm bracelet...it's just cheap shit...and so is the US Dollar.

Pretty soon, the US Dollar will only be economically competitive against Heating Oil; cost to calorie when burned...even toilet paper with be worth more.

No need to make is softer Ben!!!!!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:07 | 1193449 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

Wall St. has become completely unhinged from the laws of economic gravity.  It may take a dollar crash to flush these turds out of the system.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:07 | 1193459 Popo
Popo's picture

$7 gasoline at the pump will take care of all the bullshit very, very quickly.

It will also cause absolute chaos.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:16 | 1193494 aquagreen73s
aquagreen73s's picture

That will only accelerate the printing rate thus fulfilling the negative feedback loop that will bring us (quickly) to the crack-up boom. However at the rate things are going, I'm not sure we'll make it to 2013.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:21 | 1193535 earlthepearl
earlthepearl's picture

Dont worry, clean energy is the answer dawg

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:03 | 1193780 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Cold fusion

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 19:42 | 1194675 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Bold Delusion

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 00:07 | 1195266 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Charity and theft. It's the tried and true way of getting free energy. Practiced by the all the churches for ages.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 00:42 | 1195340 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Sold Confusion.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 04:05 | 1195498 Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture

But , at 7$ there will be no lines at the pump , like the 70's . J6P will be broke . Imagine borrowing money to drive to work , and making less at work than gas costs . Theres an enigma for you . Not every worker in the US lives 2 blocks from the workplace. What is the average commute ? No data for miles , but time , i.e. 

Among the 15 counties in the Cincinnati MSA, commuting time ranges from a low of 21.9 minutes in Campbell County to a high of 34.1 minutes in Brown County . We have guys at the "shop" who drive the gas guzzling 4WD super trucks that are paying 24$ a day to and from work  . Hitting 10% of disposable income for gasoline in America is a NOW event . Better reload the ink cartridge in Ben scammers printer. 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 19:41 | 1205803 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

the laws of economy are certainly not like the laws of physics--they're being reshaped and fucked up, right before our eyes.  this is a nightmare.

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:10 | 1193471 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

The ultimate house of cards, only congress has substituted cards with the Benjamins

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:14 | 1193479 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

minsky likes to liquidate, no? 

sell out now & avoid the rush!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:12 | 1193482 DavidC
DavidC's picture

"Scuttling the still fragile recovery could be political suicide."

What recovery?

DavidC

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:25 | 1193552 cossack55
cossack55's picture

That would be the one they endlessly praise to nauseum on CNBS.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:09 | 1193809 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

I wish more of those knuckleheads had the decency and stones to commit ACTUAL suicide.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 23:10 | 1195173 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 The recovery that you'll be looking back on fondly as a t ime of peace and prosperity; after they scuttle it.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:13 | 1193491 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Bernanke, Geithner, Bush, Paulson and Obama heads on spikes on the White House front lawn would be quite nice....

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:17 | 1193526 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Rubin? Greenspan?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:27 | 1193569 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Snow, Immelt, Krugman, Schumer, McCain, Frank, Dodd, Boehner

etc,etc,etc

Go long pikes.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:06 | 1193797 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

(snicker snicker)  He said Boehner

(Forgive me. I just had my first shot of SILVER Patron.)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 18:07 | 1194369 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Working on a little Madeira wine here myself. It's amazing how little people understand what's going on. They all think market's up, everything's good. We really got our tits in a wringer now, don't we. It seems like everything is totally fucked, oil is going to be the real asskicker. It ain't going anywhere but up. I'm converting to pellets and wood myself, fuck OPEC. Of course I still need to drive, for now. Just until TSHTF. Amazing how your mind rambles when you're drinking. Carry on ZH'ers AU and AG until the cows come fuckin' home!!!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:00 | 1194059 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

Summers, Dudley, Dimon, Blankfein, Thain, Moynihan... etfuckingcetera

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 19:45 | 1194688 Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

you guys forgot Mozillo

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:14 | 1193497 Misean
Misean's picture

The mythical "reforms" of the 90's touted as a time of "success"...hmmmm....Methinks the author is quite deluded.

Nothing will stir the theives, brigands, liars and plunderers in Warshington from their feasting on the wealth of the country until it blows sky high.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:17 | 1193504 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Thanks Minsky for the heads up, I better plant my Tomatoes

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:30 | 1193574 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Hot house them to keep the cesium and plutonium off.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:16 | 1193515 DavidC
DavidC's picture

"...deep-seated political differences on taxes and spending could still prevent a resolution of the problem in 2013".

Taxes and spending are NOT going to resolve the problem, it's way too big for that now. Even with all(all?!) the proposals to date, none of them even bring the debt back to where it was in 2008!

DavidC

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:10 | 1194094 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You're right.  Pretty much the only thing that can happen is a softening of the so-called landing.  But it's a deep ditch. 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:19 | 1193521 g speed
g speed's picture

I did a little more work on a way out-- the bankers are happy-- the working middle class is not-- so this will work for them?? maybe??  any one have some more to add ?? buying gold or lead or guns and all that is fine to talk about but it won't help the country--

A sketch of

Necessary Rules of Money

for the health and longevity of the Nation.

?

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Like all other nations that use the Federal Reserve Note (aka the Dollar) as the world reserve currency to price commodities and settle balance of payments but still retain a national money, and in order to safeguard the wealth and savings of the citizenry from theft by inflation, speculation, and foreign intervention, and to insure a stable currency against which long standing contracts can be written, and to allow wealth to pass from generation to generation, we in the United States, must be allowed our own money separate from the world currency.

?

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The congress must authorize the issue, secure printing and coin minting in various denominations of a domestic money or a United States Treasury Dollar.

--------This new dollar must be separate and insulated from the Federal Reserve Banking system.

This new currency will be backed by the full faith and trust of the United States Treasury.

This new currency may be used to settle all debts and taxes in the Territorial United States of America.

This currency may be used in parallel with the Federal Reserve Note for all commerce within the Territory of the United States.

The new USTD will be issued debt free and unencumbered by any other currency or monetary standard in the world. ---------

?

?

The laws governing the issuance of this currency must be tied to the number of citizens in the United States.

To Print and issue this money the Treasury must receive a request by a citizen to exchange a Federal Reserve Note on a one for one trade for a new United States Treasury Dollar or issue and print money to pay interest on US Treasury Dollar bonds. The treasury may issue USTD to the various states and local governments in return for prorated FRN in the amount of USTD that are paid in interest to the bond holders of the USTD bonds allowed under this law.

All exchanges of USTD with other currencies must take place at a US Treasury Bureau office or its many licensed branch offices that are set up solely for this purpose and no other.

To prevent uncontrolled dilution of the currency through inflation or injection the limit on an issue trade must be no more than 30,000 Federal Reserve Notes traded for 30,000 United States Treasury Dollars per citizen per year. The trade must take place in a timely manner after the request is made and the FRN escrowed and citizen ship and an age of 18 yrs has been proved. (1)

?

FRN in Tax Free Accounts such as IRAs must be allowed to be withdrawn penalty free and tax free for the use of exchange.

The exchange rate of United States Treasury Dollars back into Federal Reserve Notes must be allowed to float

All citizens, non citizens, businesses, organizations and US corporations may be allowed to hold and use the USTD in the territory of the US, with the exception of International Banks, Foreign Banks and The Federal Reserve Bank with its member banks, and no law shall be passed and no ruling enforced that will prohibit or inhibit the right to this property or the removal of its prohibitions.

Any United States Treasury Dollars that leave the territory of the United States will automatically become contraband and subject to confiscation. No United States Treasury Dollars will be allowed to be invested in any multinational corporations . If the investor wants to invest in foreign or multinational entities they will be required to exchange USTD back into FRN or equivalent currencies.

Any returns on invested USTD in domestic activities may be paid in either USTD or FRN dependant on the contract but must be prorated at market on the date of payment.

?

The United States Treasury must insure a stable currency for its citizen, free from manipulation by banking interests, foreign countries or conspiracies of speculators. To this end the Treasury shall issue bonds that may be purchased with USTD that will pay a 3% -5% annual return in USTD and not subject to any tax on returns or use by budget manipulators. (2)

Any taxes paid with the USTD must be prorated to reflect the market exchange rate of the FRN and the USTD on the date of payment.

The USTD may not be used by the US govt or any of its departments or agencies to pay wages or settle debts or resolve balance of payments to the Federal Reserve Bank, World Bank or the IMF,

 

The USTD may not be used by any State govt or any of its departments or agencies to pay wages or settle debts or resolve balance of payments to the Federal Reserve Bank or the World Bank or the IMF.

The USTD may not be used by any local govt or any of its departments or agencies to pay wages or settle debts or resolve balance of payments to the Federal Reserve Bank or the World Bank or the IMF.

The States may issue USTD Bonds in the same way and governed by the same rules that the US Treasury issues bonds and in competition with the US Treasury.

Local governments may issue USTD Bonds in the same way and by the same rules that the US Treasury issues bonds and in competition with the US Treasury and the states.

No holdings in USTD bonds or cash accounts or investment equivalents denominated in USTD will be subject to any inheritance tax by any govt, be it Territorial, Federal, State, or local.

When USTD are exchanged for other currencies or for FRN, all transactions, either in the public or private sector, will occur in an electronic national exchange at the Treasury and the gross number of USTD exchanged tabulated. (3)

 

Any solvent private bank my be issued a license for establishing an exchange location. All USTD held in bank accounts must be at an exchange location. Only total USTD deposits will be tabulated, not individual accounts. (4)

No govt, corporation or private person in the US may use the exchange rate or the substitution of the FRN or any other currency or banking rules or accounting practice to bypass any of the above rules or laws. (5)

Any change in the issuance or governance of the USTD must pass both houses of congress by ¾ majority and be ratified by all the States.

?

?

1. Logically, if 100,000,000 citizens exchange 20,000 FRN each year the USTD amount will be 20 billion the first year with a dilution of 100% the first year there after. The next year the dilution rate will be less and each year following the dilution rate will decrease. In time the amount of USTD in the economy will not service the demand and the value of savings denominated in USTD will increase vs. other world currencies.

2. The proceeds of the Bonds may be used by governments to generate income by investment outside of the Territorial US but not within US States or local governments, their departments or their agencies so that the citizens will not be responsible for that debt. Any such investments must use FRN or another currency exchanged at a rate set by the market. The proceeds of the Bonds shall not be used to pay any debts that may be owed by the Treasury that are denominated in FRN.

3. No USTD in excess of the current amount allowed in circulation as determined by the citizen issue at that date plus the accrued percentages of interest of all national, state and local bonds will be exchanged for other currencies or FRN.

 

4. USTD deposits held in banking establishments must be held in separate accounts isolated from all forms of money other than USTD. Balances, interest, payments and all other business of the account must be nominated in USTD and no other money.

?

5. A solvent deposit insurance plan funded by individual account subscription, regulated by the Treasury but separate from the FDIC, should be created.

. The free market should decide the rate of exchange.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:32 | 1193601 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Eradicate the FED and FDIC. Also the SS, medicare and medicaid, that cheap-drugs-for-the-darn-near-dead thing that Bush passed and I can't remember the name of. Oh hell, just dissolve the gubmint and return to the Articles of Confederation.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 00:36 | 1195333 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Ignore the Idjut what junked ya!  At this point, we need all the ideas we can find in order to come up with a new, WORKABLE financial system.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:28 | 1193559 trav7777
trav7777's picture

this idiot thinks we can just sustain this by coming to some kind of "compromise" as if the world and physical reality revolve around the idiotic whims of "Democrats and Republicans"???!?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:12 | 1194109 mendigo
mendigo's picture

yes, at the rate they are ramping the debt they don't need a compromise, they would have to combine the two plans to correct the problem - meaning operate within budget

the problem may be out of reach already and only gets worse with time. this must be the same people how advised Tepco on how to manage a nuclear mishap.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:26 | 1193560 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

It's too late right now in 2011.

This is going to end very badly, and we may not have to wait around until 2013.

I am glad I am not President!  I would not know the best way out of the box.

But, as a plain ol' individual, I think we can all prepare.  Gold & silver.  Guns & ammo.  Food and water.  Lose your debts.  Etc.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:32 | 1193933 jemlyn
jemlyn's picture

I've been reading you guys for a year.  Okay: guns, granola, green beans and gold.  Let's say you can hole up for three months.  Then what?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:19 | 1194137 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

After 3 months the burning and looting will have stopped for the most part.  Then you can reassess your position.  Staying out of the way of the bad guys for a while will be beneficial in itself.  You can concentrate on your aim rather than where your next bottle of water or ration is coming from.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 19:11 | 1194596 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

Life in Argentina after the 2001 Crisis.

Surviving in Argentina.

Read and Learn.

http://ferfal.blogspot.com/

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 21:03 | 1194874 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Been der, read dat.   Thanks for the great link.  It's worth the time.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:48 | 1194288 Pheesh
Pheesh's picture

Why do you assume people will board themselves into their houses just because they secure the above resources?   

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 23:58 | 1195251 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Just ask people that have lived in Eastern Europe and elsewhere were these scenarios have played out. Do some research and you will see that what is being touted at ZH is true. It may not play exactly the same, but the defense is the same.

You need all of those: Food, water, PM's, guns/ammo and bycicles. Yes, we hope we will not need any of these, but what if? How can you face your children? How can you explain to your children that you did not think something like that can happen to America? It has happened elsewhere many times.

 

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 00:26 | 1195317 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

*Let's say you can hole up for three months. Then what?*

Live on love for nine months,and then eat the the baby!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:47 | 1194000 Pedro
Pedro's picture

The best way is let the free markets be FREE.  No bailouts and no stimulus.  We take our medicine as bad as it may be.  Don't get me wrong, I'll probably be the first one complaining, but, it is for our own long term good.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 18:56 | 1194543 texanpilot
texanpilot's picture

Amen to that!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 18:15 | 1194396 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

If TSHTF Losing your debts will be the last thing you have to worry about. If some fucker tries to evict me then he's gonna learn his numbers real quick, as in .223. If and when the dollar looks like it's going to really collapse you can bet your ass nobody is getting paid by me. Not the gubmint, insurance companies, or my VISA. Just the electric company and Comcast, WTF you gotta have Dancing with the Stars, right?

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 03:18 | 1195472 zhandax
zhandax's picture

If and when the dollar looks like it's going to really collapse

How much more evidence you waiting for?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:33 | 1193585 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I'm long eye patches, and short USD's and yachts.  I hear they are hiring GS and JPM to prep for a 2012 IPO.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-21/piracy-syndicates-feed-off-ransom-income-u-s-navy-chief-says.html

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 00:14 | 1195274 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

"Piracy syndicates are selling shares in planned attacks, fueled by a surge of ransom payments that help attract investors, the U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Gary Roughead said."

They are selling shares and they don't want us to think that they are wall street bankster conciousness. With a do not attack, attack hold on the navy.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 00:22 | 1195302 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

now, that is some funny shit.... long live capitalism. seriously, i don't know what to say. it's "in yer face" at somebody. Unfortunately, they kill a lot of hostages, too  

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:32 | 1193587 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

per your dylan grice minsky moment tweet question: something's up, obviously. the pullbacks in silver are very shallow, lasting little more than 2 hours. the smell of panic is in the air. so all i can say is:

we few, we happy few, we band of silver holders.

sorry. gonna milk it while i can.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:32 | 1193588 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Executive Order 1110 Debt Forgiveness + a Real Standard of Money http://goo.gl/Q7hVa

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:31 | 1193596 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Killing the Federal Reserve is a GREAT idea!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:36 | 1193613 cossack55
cossack55's picture

and then burn the buildings and salt the earth where they once stood.  Worked for Carthage.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:42 | 1193655 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Worked for Carthage.

er ... you mean, "Worked for Rome." It worked against Carthage.

But these are the kinds of clear-headed solutions we need for problems like this.

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:30 | 1193591 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

" a repeat of the  conditions that led to the last major fiscal reform move with President Clinton in the early-mid 1990s"

 

You mean back when they got rid of all the remaining regulations and barriers preventing "mark to unicorn" accounting and the fleecing of the taxpayer?  Gee, sound great.  Crash the system, crash it now.  Compensation needs to find its way back to people who are actually worth a shit.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:37 | 1193621 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Concur 100%

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:35 | 1193605 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

At the rate the house is burning, there won't be anything left in 1 year.

But oké, 2 years instead of 1 isn't that long.

 

I'll wait :)

 

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:37 | 1193622 g speed
g speed's picture

don't think guns and gold will help you in really bad times-- only luck will keep you alive. When things really get bad there will be no one to haul the dead bodies out of the ditches along the roads-- the police will be robbing people on the highway and don't forget the drones-- the new suppression tool of the military industrial establishment---- no I'm sorry friends -- your ar15 and few bars of gold will not keep you out of the mix--

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:00 | 1193748 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's better to prepare and increase your luck....chances whatever,than to be a sheeple.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:02 | 1193772 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

anyone who does not have a plan "B" at this point is just plain ole' stupid!

do you control a water source?

do you control a food supply?

are you far enough away from organized government that they will not consider you supplies when the time comes?

 

and for all of you in the country, hills and / or woods... who think that you can stay out of it.. becuase the city slickers will be enough for the greedy to fill that empty hole that they have.. is just wishful thinking.. divide and conquer, its already done..

 

law enforcement will be thinking of being at the front of the government hand out line for thier family.. your civil rights are already gone and a fucking joke.

 

so, should we look into a group rate for a flight out of here? or at least until the masses have enough of being slaughtered and start fighting back? or should we be the idiots who try to defend everyone that are labled terrorists in the begining?

 

I think I would rather be fishing with my loved ones and far removed from what ever bullshit these idiots have planned to inflict upon the masses / populace / sheepeople.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:06 | 1193787 Magnix
Magnix's picture

BS! Guns helps in some ways and gold/silver is good for barter (trading goods). I thought you knew that?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:10 | 1193817 Magnix
Magnix's picture

...or you're just pissed you dont have guns and gold to protect yourself.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 18:19 | 1194412 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Long antibiotics, just act like you have a sinus infection or something, have it go through the whole family then you have some in case you need it.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 05:51 | 1195546 css1971
css1971's picture

Requires refrigeration, electricity etc.

Wikipedia Molds. IIRC, blue bread mould is in the penicilin family.

 

When the SHTF, what you really need is a good library.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 06:47 | 1195585 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Amoxicillin or Zithromax in pill form must have some kind of shelf life, yes, no?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:39 | 1193631 RobD
RobD's picture

I'm just hopeing we can make it to the end of June. I should be ready by then.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:58 | 1193739 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I keep saying the same thing....hold it together through June..then I'm good.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:00 | 1194050 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

I've lived through a total breakdown of society and physical infrastructure. You'll never be "good" when it happens.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:01 | 1194067 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Where? Argentina? Fmr. USSR?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:09 | 1194097 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Worse. New Orleans 2005.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:17 | 1194131 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Oh, yes.  I apologize on behalf of my fellow Americans for the travesty of allowing one of our great historical, industrial, and transportation centers, a truly great city, to be left to die-- the slow rebuilding is a testament to the grit of N.O.'s people.  Katrina woke up many, many people to the reality that "Uncle Sam" doesn't give a wet fart about its citizens. 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:25 | 1194163 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

In subsequent years after Katrina some Northern states had floods just as devastating.  There was no outcry about where the government was.  There was no influx of free housing.  There was no MSM fly-overs showing masses of people wandering around in circles.   These hardy folks took care of themselves and their neighbors and rebuilt.  It's a mind-set that was not to be found in NOLA. 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:29 | 1194193 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

I'm just telling those who haven't lived through an event like Katrina, or worse, that it's a lot different than you might imagine. Don't think you'll ever really be ready for it.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:28 | 1194176 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Actually, what happened here was more the fault of local government than the Feds. My point is that those who think they can be prepared for something like that who haven't actually experienced it will be in for a shock when the reality of what's going on is right in front of them.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:59 | 1194342 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Understood.  Up here in the frozen North, we could only see the T.V. footage, desparate scenes, "Heck of Job Brownie," and the rest.  I dread The Big One in Southern California...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:57 | 1194345 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Understood.  Up here in the frozen North, spitting distance to Canada, we could only see the T.V. footage, desperate scenes, "Heck of Job Brownie," and the rest.  I dread The Big One in Southern California...

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 00:46 | 1195341 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Yet, NOLA then proceeded to re-elect that idjut Nagin again!  WTF??

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 05:40 | 1195541 css1971
css1971's picture

In which case, a web page with insights gained would be useful to many.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 18:00 | 1194346 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Maybe I should reprase it. I know it won't be "good", but I'll feel better prepared by then . Believe me I dont want anything to happen, I have a family to take care of. But I also don't want to be caught with my pants down in case the worst does happen.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:42 | 1193662 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Considering we were into Ponzi units decades ago, it was just a matter of running out of new money to bring the whole house crashing down.  Given that the Chinese are balking at buying much new debt, the end might be nearer than you think.

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:06 | 1193798 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Executive Order 1110 Debt Forgiveness + a Real Standard of Money http://goo.gl/Q7hVa

 

The Federal Reserve is Printing to cover.. which means that we can forgive debt printed out of thin air owed to the elite few, so that the country can move on without so much as a hicup. But the Greedy, Pigmen will Not! Stand for that! Blood will flow and drama will ensue!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 15:57 | 1193735 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

"Scuttling the still fragile recovery could be political suicide. "

 

What fucking "recovery"?

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:14 | 1193835 Bilbo
Bilbo's picture

A few months ago I had lunch with Steve Keen and he agrees that the Minsky moment will be in 2013.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:22 | 1193876 linrom
linrom's picture

Steve Keen and Michael Hudson are the only giants in this sick profession.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:18 | 1193845 linrom
linrom's picture

A Democratic President dealing with a Republican Congress and a popular mandate to resolve the fiscal problem would be a repeat of the  conditions that led to the last major fiscal reform move with President Clinton in the early-mid 1990s. And Obama would have the added advantage of being a second term president. This mix would necessitate a political compromise in a case where compromise will clearly be needed to achieve a lasting resolution.

 

Isn't Deutsche Bank a zombie: dead and bankrupt, king of leverage pig and one of the primary dealers that also received TARP money?

US has already reached its Minsky moment in 2009, Deutsche Bank reached its own Minsky moment in 2007.  Where is the analysis in this nonsensical turd piece: 1990s meme?Why do bankers pretend to be so stupid?

The system began to implode in 2007 because of colossal PRIVATE debt levels that the bankers pretend are now rated AAA because they're guaranteed by the taxpayers? Is Social Security Debt also rated AAA by the bankers? Or will Karl Denninger type tell me that Social Security is not  debt since Supreme Court already RULED that it's just a promise? So does it mean that Social Security is subordinated to debt held by the bankers?

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:20 | 1193867 ivars
ivars's picture

Yes, the USA debt will crash correct (reduce) in 2013-2014. May be by introducing Gold standard:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

Everything except M1 will get a huge haircut.

 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:27 | 1193900 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Ummm . . guys.  I dont want to interrupt anything over here, but they sound like they're having a lot more fun on the Silver thread.  And I think they've got really hot girls over there too!  And free drinks!

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 16:39 | 1193956 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Less than week after the S&P downgrade, Deutsche Bank has the balls to come out call the US government a bunch douche bags and rate US Treasury Debt not just lower than the Bundesbank's, but lower than that of Spain, Italy, Japan, and BELGIUM- which hasn't had a government since before the current batch of US jokers was elected.  What's next Gideon Gono refusing FRNs for speaking fees at Marriner Eccles?  

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:20 | 1194084 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Exactly!  Funny how the Krauts and the other Euro trash were 66.6% +- of the banks benefiting from Skippy Geithner's mickey mouse wires from the NYFed back in '08.... it's now a circular firing squad for all involved.  I have a swamp out back, at least I'll have water when the power grid goes down...

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 18:22 | 1194426 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Noticed your handle SoNH80, are you in the NH area? I am in Southern NH, Good to know I have company if you are.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 18:47 | 1194511 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Indeed.  New England's industrial heartland.  Military-Industrial Heartland, that is.  The lifted-truck crowd on the 3rd shift at BAE Systems still seems to be doing ok, and the Mass. people that sold high (there) and bought low (here), but when heating oil is at $3+, many are unhappy... life during wartime..

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 18:50 | 1194523 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Oh, and BTW, PSNH's stellar reliability record here in SoNH gives us plenty of practice on how to live without power, as you know, lol.

Fri, 04/22/2011 - 06:54 | 1195587 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Had a half hour outage right after you posted that. I was without power for 6 days after the ice storm. Honda generator and lots of 5 gal jugs of gas with Stabile in them. Always have to be ready.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 21:46 | 1194988 Bear
Bear's picture

The whole world is playing us for the village idiot ... and of course, with the inspired leadership that we have we are those idiots 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 17:54 | 1194331 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...compromise, a self fulfilling prophecy? Naa, just plain old corruption wrapped up in a ''New World Order'' slaughter package of evil and temptation, offered by morons that perched upon the Tower(s) of Babylon they set to implode by design, after these foul fowl flew a way into Iraq through the WTC they constructed to time with the game theory of Larry Summers and the Greenspan Fed Head(s) that set in motion the pathetic call for a forced ''compromise'' we now see upon us, in (new) order for the next move upon the crypto fascist Grand Chessboard, as a result of their successful ritual slaughters of the market and man. 

...and yes, it is all perfectly prophetic. 2112, what an interesting time it shall be a? 2013? ...the mark time of the Wrascally Wrabbit Whole Global Economy Wreckoning of the self devouring Great Wal Mart of China ''on sale now'' number(s) of the beast? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yxiv3CBMS4M Well now, if you understand the season; of the Silly Wrabbit Hole and this ''shit is in your face'' moment, you will not be suprised by the tricks (debt) for the kids and what results come from the ''compromise'' ( AKA Moral Hazard AKA Bohemian sacrifice ...of mercy upon the flaming alter where ''care'' is burned as a child for the sake of a pathetic claim of dominion that well represents the strong delusion of those sealed in the bottomless pit) and the ensuing false peace ...now will you? 

Watch! ...and witness what rises in Jerusalem. See who rises up in the City of Babylon and declares ''bullshit'' on the compromising bastards, and what reward they shall receive from the yield of the careless sword carrying Bitchez now dashing their foot upon the Stone. Are we not now among the numbered? http://bible.cc/revelation/11-8.htm ...are we drunk from the wine of wrath and just posers in possession of Chairsatans golden copulations and just bitchen Bitchez?

...Eve tempted Adam with an Ipod ...but man I ain't going for that! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpYn6bYw0d4

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 21:44 | 1194986 BernankeHasHemo...
BernankeHasHemorrhoids's picture

I'm dying to see the whole house of cards go down. Anarchy, riots, violence of every kind imaginable - it's gonna be great when the chickens come home to roost. I just hope the banksters and the politricians get their share of what they deserve. Stock up on guns and ammunition, boys.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 21:55 | 1194998 Bear
Bear's picture

You're nuts to hope for this outcome (unless its only sarcasm). The elite move to Singapore, Tahiti, Bali and all the other safe places around the world and the serfs end up killing one another with the guns and ammo that you suggest stocking up on. If its MMO (Mad Max Outcome), no one will be safe. 

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 23:53 | 1195244 booboo
booboo's picture

Buy cammo and pretend to be a tree until it blows over, you may have to put up with a few dogs, crazy works too, nobody screws with a drooling man with with four pounds of smelly gold in his diaper.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 19:33 | 1205774 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

how about raising the debt ceiling again?  psyche...really nothing is presenting itself as a solid solution here, 2012 is going to be the end of it before anyone ever gets to see 2013.   the Mayans were right.

 

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