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And The 2009 ETF Winner Is...
And an honorable mention to the biggest loser, the Spider, which lost 19% of its value to end 2009 at $84.9 billion (and this includes $11.5 billion of SPY inflows in December alone). In short, as TrimTabs has repeatedly highlighted, in 2009 investors poured into commodities and bonds, and largely shunned domestic stocks. Yet the U.S. stock market closed the year at the highs...Logic 101.
Source: Invesco PowerShares
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Gold to be FDR'd.
Bye Gold. Buy Silver.
How many times have you posted this in the last 4 hours? 10? 15??? Why?
I apologize if you do not like. I have merely used it at the ends of posts for point not punt, this one withstanding. I have heard gold, gold, gold, but not silver. Ruby slippers? No. Silver. Thanks for the comment. I guess I made my point.
They're both good options, I think. I was wondering if you were here solely to hawk silver though.
Palladium, platinum, copper...???
I wish I had enough to hawk.
Your Question "Pall, plat, cop."? Yes yes yes. Still, I think silver offers portability along with "worth". When the time comes, lets say five years, I see common business done with silver, with states holding silver/gold/platinum (precious metals etc) reserves and backing currency by it (state banks should be opened as soon as everyone figures out Bernnkes first two initials are BS!). Worst case senerio, Mad Max, there will be no decent currency, then groceries, gas, etc, exchanges will best be done in Silver. Gold coins at the coffee shop? I think not. Baum put it best (paraphrase) "Dorathy clicked her silver shoes thrice, and was back in Kansas." Once the DoeLar is devalued (think Yuan unpegged) metals all spike, then gold is FDR'd, they all spike again. You, holding silver (any metal?) still have your assets, and got two plush spikes. Buy silver? The Rothschildes did (ishares silver trust tiker SLV, Barclays) Buy Silver ;)
If it goes at all, it certainly won't go willingly, and it will be a hell of a fight to get it.
I am Chumbawamba.
Silver Bitches!
I heard China bought a 10 year supply of copper. Maybe copper is where its at. Start snatching up
Well, if you believe that, then you dont want physical. Otherwise you'll get stopped out at some price that is way below where they will fix it once they got it and youre left with dollars. Bank holiday and then the turn in then before you can do anything you'll wake up and its hundreds/thousands higher and you're stuck with that loss.
Get yourself some miners instead. The golds already in a vault by being in the ground.
And what if extraction costs, driven by energy costs, make further mining uneconomical even as already-mined gold skyrockets?
well, if you simply buy whatever a broker tells you to, then yes, you may lose money. If you do your homework you can find miners that have determined feasibility at $650/oz for gold and silver miners at $6/oz.
That is why it pays to do your homework and find miners whose models and reserves are predicated upon a $650/oz Au and have low lift costs. I saw a silver miner expect a $2 lift cost in 2010 with other metals offsetting - not bad with Ag at $18 and change right now. Again, if you do your homework you can find Co's that list the costs for fuel and/or transport in their models. from that you can extrapolate your own assumptions on energy, sale price, lift cost, etc... and determine at what point, if any, it becomes unfeasible.
Far from advocating simply blindly buying miners wherever and whenever one finds them, I am saying that as much as gold is going to go up in the future, the right companies will far exceed the return from physical.
To start, look for companies that are expanding reserves from open resources still being defined as well as increasing production from existent mines through increased heap leach pads, or from extra crushers, etc... that increase the throughput of ore material.
Its not that difficult, but you have to get off your ass and do some work. If you wait for brokers to tell you what to buy in the stock market, get ready to only be helping them make money off the positions they already hold as they sell into you.
The spot prices if you have noticed do not reflect the actual purchasing cost of PM coins. The premium is reflecting the increase in physical demand. So although the spot price is at 1130 something the real price of a coin isn't less than 1190 or so.
Arrrrrr! Shivver me timberrrs I been F.D.Rrrrrred.
I see Robo's Wildebeasts, running out, running in. Running to a Gold ETF (sigh). They just don't get it, and will not, literally, when they need it.
Long hard physical baby.
That's a very sexy comment MsCreant....LOL! But I agree.
Oh, MsCreant! I love it when you talk like that. Grrr, baby! Very grrrr.
sooooo, long the right column, short the left to get paid
Must need to engineer another big fake paper selloff.
If GLD is a scam(like ZH pointed out) filled with tungsten 'gold' bars, it's a win-win for the bankers
Let us revisit GLD shall we? Think COUNTERPARTY RISK.... do you really trust that these ETFs have the gold they claim and are not leasing it out or creating/forming/leveraging some other paper gold on top of their paper gold. As an example, GLD can hold NOT GOOD bars for proper delivery to the market and they do not insure their gold holding. Add to that, there are many other serious situations one should consider before choosing GLD or other ETFs.
Read GLD's 10-k filing at www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/10k_Sept08.pdf and pay special attention to pages 54 to 62.
Bottom line, if you want to invest in gold i would do as GLD's largest shareholder did months ago.... they sold their GLD holdings are purchased physical metal and took delivery. In this day and age counterparty risk is to be avoided imho.
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"In the absence of a gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good and thereafter decline to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as claims on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to be able to protect themselves.
This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." - Alan Greenspan, 'Gold and Economic Freedom' (1966).
Hey, when the car wash operator tells you to buy gold, it's time to sell.
Got deflation?
King Dollar will rule once again, I'm afraid.
The car wash operator thinks gold is $17 an oz homie. See "Dice sells gold cheap". Story short, no takers.
King DoeLarr? Sunrays in your eyes homie. BS Bernanke shreds 'em like "The Flying Tomato" shreds mountains.
Buy Silver.
can you explain why the DXY is higher than in 2008 ? after all the shredding ?
Higher? You mean higher than before the DoeLar spiked (market crashed)?
Because it is not higher, it is lower. The last time we were at 78 (pre spike) with STRENGTH was Sept 24th, '07. But if you want a detailed X, ok.
Market crash, rush to exits, they go to the Doe. Then it gets run on all year. Recently, the Samurais have been playing printer like BS Bernanke, and the EZ have done the same (Greece y other east Euro nations). So the Ray of Light that is the Greenback has beniffitted from the weakening of other currencies. This however does not make the Doe "stronger". That would be like if one kid beat up another kid and you proclaimed him "Heavy Weight Champion of the World".
Also, it got washed out all last year. There is nothing left for it. Mama don't want it, I don't want it, the House of Saud don't want it, Big Red don't want it, the other BRICs don't want it, Samurais don't want it, and Celente don't want it. Now if you want it, I can find some sellers....hmmm?
The dollar is higher than March 2008 at 70.70...
http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/
And yet it doesn't buy as much gold...or anything else for that matter.
All the currencies are going skydiving without parachutes. Some other currencies have just added a few anvils into their packs. That doesn't mean that the crash of the dollar won't be any less spectacular than that of the other currencies.
It could easily happen that all of these currencies enter hyperinflation at the same time. The indexes may show that they haven't changed in relative strength, but that doesn't change the fact that you are hauling your pocket change around in wheelbarrows.
That's the crowded thing I've been heard of throughout these last 3 months.
I had the misfortune of seeing some Faux News at lunchtime today. During Faux News sponsor breaks, there was an ad with G. Gordon Liddy as paid spokesman, hawking some outfit I'd never heard of and talking only about buying gold. It sounded like they meant physical too, though that was probably misleading. Anyway, isn't Liddy on Fox News hawking gold a bit of a sign that the market may be getting a little crowded with the little guy?
Sorry, no. I work with a bunch of econ people that still dont get it even though they dont disagree with where I tell them things are going with the economy or whats going to happen with rates and debt issuance from the govt with massive deficits. They've just been beaten over the head with the mantra that gold sucks to the point that they actually think gold sucks. Kinda like the people that believe we found all those WMD's we went into Iraq for (at least at first). If you repeat the lie enough, people start thinking its true.
Until you got people lining up out the door of bullion shops to buy, like 1979/80, it aint time to sell. When I'm in line at Starbucks and I hear people talking about what gold stock or bullion they just bought, then I'm out.
Its still way way early
I can see that side too, but seeing any investment hawked by a cheesy commercial on a channel I can't bear anyway is a pretty strong turn-off. I mean, if I saw Berkshire Hathaway stock advertised on ABC during the soaps, I would short it like mad.
Everyone hates Zimbabwe dollars. Must be time to buy, right?
Currencies are a strange animal. They don't have inherent value, and old notes tend to not be honored. A gold coin from ancient China has value. An ancient Chinese banknote does not (beyond its collector value), and further, a note with one unit of currency isn't worth any less than a note with 100,000 units of currency. The point is, those notes are not redeemable, while gold is.
Gold is slowly returning to its role as currency. Once the nation-states get over their foolish dollar worship, it will happen in a major way. I, myself, would buy it BEFORE they do that.
About the tv commercials. I do not live in USA so I can not confirm myself but I read that often those TV commercials are vehicles to sell not gold but numismatics - old gold coins. They rip off people by selling them something on which they can claim a large commision.
I would not view TV commercials as signs of bubble mania in physical gold but buble mania in numismatics.
I try to educate people around me and I am suprised how much the conditioning that gold is barbaric relic, that gold is too expensive, that you can not eat gold has been inprinted in people. Many of those people hold higher degrees in their fields but have no clue about financial matters.
We are far away from gold bubble in my view, I keep adding physical gold to my portfolio. I will keep adding even if the price of gold goes down 30%. I would be even happy if it did because I could buy cheaper. My wife would not be happy but she still is to some degree the person wihch buys high sells low ;).
TV will sell gladly you a gold clad coin for $19,
worth less than the cost of shipping.
And the scarcity of golden bears here may be
a good sign gold is a crowded tired old
trade. Gold may head back to at least $930
and possibly $350 before folks realize the
Big4 got them iin the shorts once again....
http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/
TV will sell gladly you a gold clad coin for $19,
worth less than the cost of shipping.
And the scarcity of golden bears here may be
a good sign gold is a crowded tired old
trade. Gold may head back to at least $930
and possibly $350 before folks realize the
Big4 kicked them in the shorts once again....
http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/
That's nice and all, but guess what?
It's not 1979/80 -- it's 2010.
And these days, people don't "line up out the door of bullion shops to buy."
Want to see what they do in this era, instead?
Take a good hard look at that ETFs graphic for your answer....
as said in another gold thread a long time ago by a Chumba person..."<<<<[Physical] Gold is NOT A TRADE!!>>>>" (nor is Silver, Plat, etc.)...:) Starschmucks or no, doesnt matter, at the end of the day, portable wealth storage for 1000's of years.
I laughed! Nice one Tyler!
DavidC
Got Pot (perhaps a pot etf)?
N.J. Gov. Jon Corzine signs bill giving patients in the state legal access to medical marijuana -- AP
Yes..., yes I do.
As the price of gold has risen from the $300s there have been short term declines in it's price as risk assets such as stocks or other commodities have sold off. Short-term, it trades as a risk asset. Dollar up, stocks down, commodities down, gold down, etc.
And yes, seeing half a dozen different outfits advertising gold on every right wing TV show and radio program gives one pause, especially when they incessantly highlight golds tremendous out performance of stocks for the past decade.
This is reflected in the GLD inflows in 2009s and the SPY outflows.
Be that as it may, Tyler's earlier article today highlighted that the US holds merely 8100 tons of gold with a current market value of about 300 billion dollars--roughly 1/40th our national debt--or, roughly 1/10th our annual budget--or roughly 1/3 our annual budget deficit.
In fact, total central bank holdings of gold world wide only total one trillion dollars at today's prices.
In short, except for a few select countries and regions (Switzerland and the Eurozone), most of the paper money and most of the debt in the world is backed by NOTHING...zero, zilch, nada.
There are other valuable assets besides gold which function as stores of wealth, of course. Oil, nat gas, other precious or industrial metals, etc.
Gold is only worth what the market says its worth. But even a small shift into a physical asset like gold and away from the trillions and trillions of paper wealth will continue to provide a bid for and drive up the price of gold.
Indeed, one seminal event will be the eventual increase in value of the Chinese Yuan.
Many of which are in fact probably better investments, except that they are more difficult to acquire and store. Which is why we're talking about gold in the first place, I suppose.
Yes, I agree.
So, should I view the gold ads on tv as being more like a stopped clock being right twice a day, or like 10,000 monkeys on typewriters eventually producing Shakespeare?
the price of ginseng is going thru the roof also
issue is. if you compare AU to other PM or to base materials, its been crappy performer. So, buy something we can use - PGM, Rare Earth, even Copper... all been better performers then gold in 2009 and will continue to be in 2010. As, you mentioned - its hard to get. But hard doesn't mean impossible...
sigh...
Ok. Its real easy. Look at copper over 18 months and compare it to gold. Do the same with all the other metals. Oops. Your theory is now all smoke and mirrors.
The losers? Holders of paper gold. More imitations to make it appear abundant and therefore less valuable: "After tasting success with its campaign to sell gold coins across India’s post offices, the World Gold Council (WGC) is getting ready to launch a new version of gold traded on paper in India. The new form of paper gold, just like the Gold ETFs, will be launched in the Indian market in the next few months." http://www.commodityonline.com/news/WGC-to-launch-new-paper-gold-in-Indi...
Believe it or not, GLD being at the top of the list is actually bad news for Gold. It is a FRAUD that directs money flows AWAY from the real thing.
That reminds me. I need to click on the gold advertisements here, even though I have no intention of buying the product. Sort of like watering the plants.
You can also check their prices and gloat privately with yourself if you got it much cheaper. A win-win click for a gold holder, really.
Go on....
Seems to me like good news for anyone wanting to invest in physical. Existence of GLD soaks up demand that would otherwise go into real gold, while increasing "supply", which should overall moderate the price of real gold for quite a while. While it lasts.
"Aurum, unpleasant women!"
Are we assuming GLD is not holding? If they have a hoard, doesn't that mean they are taking out supply? I seem to be missing the slightest something...
There has been various speculation about the holdings of GLD. Google is your friend.
+1000.. THEY ADD TO GOLD PRICE, not substract out. thats all what matters! Who cares what they hold, as soon as you don't hold any of it. :)
I don't think so Gordo, although I agree it isn't good for the spot price of gold it is however good since it increases the likely possibility that GLD will be exposed for the fraud that it is.
GLD is marketing, GLD is buzz, GLD is easy way to proxy gold... With total ETFs holding at 1750 mt (dec 2009), they now hold more gold then CB (except top 5). ITS GOOD... Watch PT and PD ETF and how much they already added to price of PGM.... More ETFs is better...
how is it possible that net flows are greater than AUM (e.g. UNG)?
Natti going down while paying at some points on the curve 40 cents roll on a $5.50 commodity? That would be my guess.
Well there is only one possible conclusion to that question isn't there?
i'm listening carefully.. :)
Maybe I misunderstood your question. I thought you were asking why there was more net flows than AU. So I supposing you were asking why their were more contracts than physical gold to back said contracts?
I wish there was a gold filter you could enable on zh.
The keywords and teaser should serve as a pretty good filter. If you see the word gold, don't read it. All filtered!
On paper gold [ETF's], I read a long article at the Von Mises Institute on Weimar. http://mises.org/web/4016#pg182....A strange thing happened; as the Mark depreciated, the stock market soared. Shares were keeping up with the Marks decrease in value. Equities often increased more than the inflation rate! Speculation was one of the only games in town and many profited from it. While the nonspeculating Berliner citizens were selling the farmers a piano for a pig, the traders were eating like kings at fancy restaurants. This angered the populace and helped Adolph.
A major psych phenomenon was: Weimar could have just called a halt but they kept the game going for years. End result was the same, but Germany's gold acct was at zero. If they stopped it 2 years earlier, there was enough gold to start a new goldMark. [yes there were many other factors: politics, reparations, coal strike, etc] Our current wizards are also proceeding to follow Weimar tactics. Global strategy is more sinister.
This reminded me of March 2009 and $300BN of easy money. It and additional FRN's are lifting equities. People losing houses and living in tent cities while squidsters get $3MN bonus. So maybe paper gold will rise with equities?
Marc Faber said on youtube a few months ago ~sure the DOW can go to 30,000 if the printing machine is revved but gold will still outpace it [$10K/oz]. I dont know when, could be 2, 5, or 10 years but it cant go on forever!~
Dont know but there seems to be a pattern starting to repeat?
Why wouldnt anyone have some gold and junk silver? Solomon himself said dont put all eggs in one basket.
So wouldn't it be a better idea to sell GLD and buy SPY then?
Apart from gold, does anyone think ETFs are the next CDO ?
Yes, along with bond funds bought 62 times
equity funds last year and insiders selling $62
for every share they bought...
http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/
101 FACTS ABOUT GOLD
http://israelfinancialexpert.blogspot.com/2010/01/101-facts-about-gold.htm
Forgot the L at the end. This link works:
http://israelfinancialexpert.blogspot.com/2010/01/101-facts-about-gold.html
Anyone in the gold markets in January 1980
recognizes all the signs...
http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/
your knowledge of any history whatsoever is, well, stunning.
Want to compare the interest rate in 1980 to todays rate? Hmmm? Thought not. Why let facts get in the way of a good rant.
Seriosly, its like idiots who compare gold to equities or other commodities in the last 30 years. Cherry picking seems to be all the rage among fiat bugs.
and reason why, no PT ETF in 2009 no PD ETF in 2009.. silver and gold for pesants!