This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

And The Decade's Winner Is...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In a small vindication for long-suffering gold bugs, Bloomberg's chart of the day brings a decade of false gains, paper pro(phe)ts, and the inflation/deflation debate to a close.

As the chart demonstrates, "A $100 investment in gold would now be more than $380 while the same sum in commodities would have grown to about $357, according to the Standard & Poor's GSCI Enhanced Total Return Index." To the chagrin of stock pumping, Philadelphia majority-owned cable stations, stock investors lost $10 in the decade. But next decade will surely be different, see: The Fed is gone, Chairman Ben is no longer at the helm, money is not being printed as if Cottonelle was going out of style, the US is done raking up trillions in deficits and punting the resolution of the fiscal budget mystery to the next administration, we are no longer reliant on China to finance our ultra-short term day to day existence, Goldman is no longer viceroy of this quadrant of the Milky Way Galaxy... oh wait...

nevermind

And for all the pomp and circumstance of Private Equity, of Hedge Funds, of fast, loose and easy money, the simplest commodity known to man clearly "out-thought" five business school generations of the smartest men in the room, whose financial weapons of mass destruction brought nothing to the world than the abyss of systemic collapse. It does kinda put things into perspective.

Yet the paradox of this chart is amusing, as investors run to both risk and safety at the same time: the only clear thought in their heads - get rid of the Bernanke Toilet Paper Put (aka, the US Pesito).

"That's fear and greed at the same time," said Toby
Nangle, director of asset allocation at Baring Investment
Services Ltd. in London. "The fear of inflation is in the gold
price. Commodities and oil show emerging markets emerging, and
the rest is the developed markets submerging
."
Holders of U.S. high-grade corporate bonds made a profit of
about $90 on their investment, as did Treasury investors,
according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. Buyers of
crude oil saw their $100 turn into $268 after it rose to more
than $500 in 2008, based on the futures contract for West Texas
Intermediate.

One sure thing: the risk and fear convergence can not, in theory or practice, continue for much longer. And 2010 will be precisely that - they year in which the [risk/safety] trade collapses with a bang. By implication, at least half the investors out there will be left out to dry. Goldman Sachs would like to extend its condolences to that half (the other half will get an invite to Goldman's 2010 Xmas party - the elves can only be put away for one year before they yearn to come out and play), even as it continues monopolizing the agency market in all product classes. After all, when you are Goldman Sachs, the term Zero Sum does not apply.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:21 | 172216 john_connor
john_connor's picture

most senators favor bernanke re-confirmation: 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aF9JOzSyhQSY&pos=5

 

wtf

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:23 | 172221 geopol
geopol's picture

WTF???I take it , your surprised?

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:24 | 172223 john_connor
john_connor's picture

no, not surprised, just disgusted.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:35 | 172229 geopol
geopol's picture

I would say severely disgusted.... General strike!!

 

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:39 | 172282 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Let's bring back the Tea Parties!  ASAP.  I enjoyed going to one last April.  They need to be BIG and FREQUENT so that the MSM cannot ignore us.

And if tax protests start up, yeah, I'll be there too.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:07 | 172341 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It doesn't matter how BIG or FREQUENT protests are, the politicians will laugh and ignore them until they become THREATENING.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:36 | 172655 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Sadly, American sheeple are pu$$ies! Look at Calif and their 10% additional tax holdings recently and there were no major strikes nor revolts. Until there are massive strikes and a full stop in production and transportation in all of the USA you can expect the US Gov to ignore the sheeple. Sadly, the USA sheeple are wimps, not even worthy of being a mere shadow of what the Founding Fathers had intended.

The original Tea Party was due to a mere few percentages of tax, an today Americans are slaves to USA Inc and pay over 30% in taxation.

Do not hate the messenger (me), hate the message. Until then ZeroHedge sheeple, keep trading stock, working mind-numbing jobs and pay your 30%+ in taxes, consume, procreate, support your government and be compliant.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:49 | 172671 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

+1

Look at these pathetic UCLA students. They think they are 'activists' - they'll pay anyway.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl8XYMoD5tk

95% of the American public that shows up will be like the kid @ 1:58 - scared shitless once the Powerz make a move.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 14:15 | 172797 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Nice, yet too small and localized to make any difference. The USA needs a MASSIVE all states-wide strike and grind the country to a halt.

No production, no shopping, no public transportation... and may as well do a run on the banks too and withdrawal all funds.

Without a huge countrywide demonstration that grind things to a halt like those seen in France and other countries, the sheeple of the USA will continue to be worker drone/slaves. ZeroHedge could organize or at least start a campaign for such a strike... which also includes a run on the banks.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 16:10 | 172945 geopol
geopol's picture

I think you've outlined the basic business model. Once we get traction, who would articulate the demands to DC?? Or would the DC crowd  be jolted into constitutional compliance?

 

Phase II is difficult to predict..

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 16:53 | 173007 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

The Constitution would be the guide...

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 17:23 | 173052 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

The Constitution minus Amendments 11 - 27.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 19:57 | 173218 trav777
trav777's picture

calling for a run on the banks could be construed as terrism

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 15:28 | 172886 besodemuerte
besodemuerte's picture

LOL, I think he went to go clean out the shit from his pants after that moment at 1:58.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 17:45 | 173080 Hammer59
Hammer59's picture

They were protesting modest increases in tuition for their state subsidized educations. Pathetic is right! The police were wearing bicycle helmets, fer chrissake!  You should have seen the YouTube vid's of the kids assaulted by real police in riot gear in Chicago.

They were tear-gassed, but they did not snivel like the Cali pansies.

Dont taze, me bro!

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:36 | 172358 CB
CB's picture

we should just tar & feather all the feds, except I wonder if there's actually enough tar & feathers to do the job.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:56 | 172244 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I LOVE the threats that we are constantly subjected to.  The market this, the market that.  Phuck the market!  We live in a society, not a phucking market.  These shills and hucksters can't get enough of the market.  It is the lens through which all stories most be viewed.  It is the all-seeing, all-knowing eye that watches over us.  I swear, I have a vision of Mordor, radiating from above the Masonic pyramid.

Excerpt:

 

Extrapolating the current vote count for the entire Senate would yield about 25 “no” votes, a total that probably wouldn’t trigger declines in stock or bond markets or cause investors to question the Fed’s political support, saidMichael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York.

“The market could deal with that,” said Feroli, a former Fed researcher. “If you got closer to 35 or 40, I think that’s worrisome.”

 

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:20 | 172268 John Bigboote
John Bigboote's picture

+1. They are like a bunch of giddy little school girls; it's disgusting to watch.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:28 | 172272 Cistercian
Cistercian's picture

 Mordor it is.Visualize a scene in a pastoral setting in america, suddenly the view reels and begins to fly toward 85 broad as the music from the film the two towers as used to depict the mood for the creation of the evil army builds in intensity.We see remotely into Blankfiends office and lo..he is an orc!And so are his minions.

 Of course this is entirely appropriate since Mordor is the land of darkness and evil....just like 85 broad is the heart of darkness today.Who can withstand The evil Fed and the evil GS?They are the bringers of doom for our time.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:13 | 172344 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"Exterminate the brutes!"

In James Conrad's day the brutes were native Africans. Today the brutes are the middle class of America, to be exterminated by the colonial push of the banker/CEO class. We will be "civilized" by those that know better.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:51 | 172684 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

They just might speak Mandarin, too.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 10:01 | 172532 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You're surprised? The almighty sacred 401k and the market on which it stands. What else do you think is first and foremost on the mind of every single person of any importance in Washington D.C., day and night? Renomintate Bernanke = More Free Money For All = Market Stays Up = I Keep My Retirement. Guarantee you the entire thought process in no more complicated than that for most of the Senators voting "yes". Future genrations and the country itself be damned but God forbid my portfolio balance go down any more than it already has.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:15 | 172621 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Dear Eye of Sauron,

When we first started seeing each other, I found your constant concern for my future and unblinking vigilance to be endearing. Lately, however, it's become a bit creepy. To be blunt, you're kinda cramping my style. Maybe we can just be friends?

Yours Truly,
B

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 00:50 | 172399 wgpitts
wgpitts's picture

Al Capone did not want an audit...Enron did not want an audit...Healthsouth did not want an audit.... Worldcom did not want and audit....Bernie Madoff did not want an audit ...Michael Milken did not want and audit...and Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Bank does not want an audit....get the picture....where is the missing $3 trillion Ben?

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 02:58 | 172443 Assetman
Assetman's picture

I can tell you with a high degree of confidence that I don't have the $3 trillion.

Anyone else out there have it?

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 03:15 | 172446 HooFlungPoo
HooFlungPoo's picture

Sorry dude, I lost it at the casino.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 11:50 | 172601 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

I had it, but spent it on beer....hic!

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 17:49 | 173087 Hammer59
Hammer59's picture

+1000

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:22 | 172219 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Congratulations.  I applaud all the gold holders out there.  You know who you are.  Unfortunately, so does the FR and the UST.  When they want it, they'll come looking for it.  Get yer guns ready....

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:31 | 172225 geopol
geopol's picture

I can just see Timmy at my front door,, Muhahahahahaha The dust kicks up as I head for mexico....

 

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:59 | 172247 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@geopol

I was hoping for more of a fight, than flight, response.  ;-)

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:26 | 172270 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

US 2010 military Budget 680 billion. I prefer flight.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 11:58 | 172609 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Military is mired in AfPac. Mix in folks like the Oathkeepers, and I think fight stands a chance.

Good G-d man, die on your feet FFS!!!

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 14:50 | 172835 geopol
geopol's picture

Cursive,,, I forgot to mention Timmy was horizontal before I left...Let's try that again MUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.....

 

 

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 07:48 | 172481 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

 "Get yer guns ready...."

The true gold-bug has his trusty Mauser '98 at the ready with hand loaded ammo with... not lead... but smelted silver slugs for vampires, gold confiscating UST boys and CBankers...

Disclosure: Long primers, dies and bullet molds...

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:39 | 172657 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

I raise you .50 Raufoss.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 20:13 | 173234 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

How about a Springfield M1A,
a RRA LAR-8 7.62 and 10k rounds
of 7.62x51mm with enough training/experience
to take down a deer @ 200yrds on the run.
Thats what we have....
Been very happy with Au performance, expect
equal performance in the next couple of years.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:00 | 172610 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Not when you trade FRN's directly for PMs

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 20:01 | 173222 trav777
trav777's picture

lotta fiat bulls don't seem to realize that the .gov can take your FRNs a lot easier.

In fact, they can take eFRNs with merely a mandate from on high.

One day, you think you have "money in the bank" and a 401(k) and next day the .gov says gibs me dat.

They could also do away with FRNs that you'd been hoarding.  By fiat, render them illegal tender.  Priceless dollar crowd may wanna consider this during scheming over how they're going to short to 0 and buy everything up after the "deflation" with all their hoarded cash.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:31 | 172227 I need more asshats
I need more asshats's picture

Come-on, just for a day bitches.

http://i50.tinypic.com/241l5lj.jpg

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:37 | 172230 geopol
geopol's picture

I agree,, what the fuck is with the FRN's???? Shit house paper....

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:41 | 172233 Crime of the Century
Crime of the Century's picture

Thirded. Big time.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:27 | 172271 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Marla's explanation was that it was supposed to mean that FRN are so devalued that they were appropriate to use as props for decorating your snowman.

I know :)

Anyway, looks like you got your wish, Asshats.  Look up.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:36 | 172281 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

LOL. Now do one with toilet paper rolls in one hand and gold in the other!!!!

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 22:04 | 172298 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

How about an AK in one limb and a can of beans in the other?

You know who I am.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 22:29 | 172319 David449420
David449420's picture

And I'll bet you thought no one would pick up on that. I like wit.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:37 | 172231 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Is the outperformance of commodities, oil and gold really about risk and greed?  

The way I see it, this is as much about the failure of the economy.  The other three are linked to the performance of organizations - businesses or governments, who have clearly failed in their duties.  You can do all sorts of clever accounting tricks and you can print all the money in the world, but this does not create economic growth.  Meanwhile, a barrel of oil or an ounce of gold stays constant.  This is not a victory for gold, but a defeat for capitalism.  If you want to know where the value has gone, look in the bank accounts of the bankers and the captains of industry.  While the stock market has been flatlining, their personal wealth has multiplied.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:48 | 172240 Argos
Argos's picture

Exactly.  And this is another reason why I like gold.  Not only is it a short on the dollar, but a short on the present .gov.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:31 | 172273 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Hyperinflation, like a plague, creeps silently across the countryside, the transmission facilitated by the minds and hearts of those that demand sound money and a responsible government.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 22:39 | 172324 Wasatch
Wasatch's picture

True, and best to remember, that ones wealth in gold is measured in oz and not in fiat.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 00:08 | 172375 lewy14
lewy14's picture

This is not a victory for gold, but a defeat for capitalism.

Pitch perfect. But capitalism cannot trump hard limits.

Equity valuations are up against peak debt - the zero interest bound, the infinite leverage bound.

Real production (in the developed world) is up against the demographic bound, the education bound, and the entitlement bound.

So - flat on the decade chart, after we've all served as crash test dummies in the massive leverage / deleverage collider.

Color me unsurprised in the least.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 20:05 | 173225 trav777
trav777's picture

gold and oil both peaked this decade, 2000, and 2005 respectively.

Yes, I know that all liquids made a higher nominal production high in 2008 (in spite of the supposed demand collapse and imaginary oil tanker fleets) but C&C peaked in 2005 and has shown no signs of testing that figure.

Against increased supply of money and decreasing supply of the commodity, price increases would seem to be obvious.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:42 | 172235 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Anyone seen the mass layoff numbers that were supposed to be released this morning, but put off until today at 3.00 PM, so they could go back and "fix" them up ?

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 22:12 | 172306 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

They dont want to mess with the health care voting.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:45 | 172237 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

its a easy investment to make. just buy it, hold it and watch it grow. no muss, no fuss, no worries. you cut out the stock broker, the bond broker, you don't have to worry about stocks going up and down. when you want to look at your investment, you just take it out of the closet and look at it. if there ever was a good example of the KISS principle, this is it. hey tyler. its gold bitches, its gold.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 20:55 | 172243 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

BTW,are these in nominal dollar,or DXYadjusted values?

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:03 | 172251 roadcaptain
roadcaptain's picture

Man Without Qualities summed it all up.

It is a ZERO sum game in banking.

 ZERO for any one else but them.

 

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:04 | 172253 10044
10044's picture

gold will FLY, do you hear me?? FFFFFFFFFFFFLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLYYYYYYYYYYYY

1650 by April, 2500 by Sep, THAT's THE FACT

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:43 | 172283 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Going to have contrary the 2500 call by september. 2010 will find gold faked, baked and tungsten in the caked. The real heavy duty loss of faith seems scheduled for 2011.
BTW. The canadian mint accidently sold it's expensive gold (tungsten) slag for pennies on the dollar when it was melting. Which to me is confirmation that nearly ALL the gold is out in the market and the central banks are in full on Bernie Madoff scam mode.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Royal+Canadian+Mint+reveals+lost+t...

Is it just me or does the bar they showed in the pic indicate a faked bar with much of the gold coating flaked off?

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 22:50 | 172332 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Isn't that just the file markings along the edge that is use to fine tune the weight?

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:15 | 172348 Crime of the Century
Crime of the Century's picture

No kidding - something strange about that photo. Gold isn't supposed to look raggedy.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:34 | 172649 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

“At the end of the day, we’ve learned a lot of lessons,” said Christine Aquino, mint spokeswoman.

I would say, 'heist of the decade', but the US gov't is in a league of its own - by many orders of magnitude. This year alone has seen contenders that would blowout competition from centuries past.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 15:45 | 172910 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

At the end of the day they didn't learn shit. They are in charge of a fucking mint and they come with that 2 year old I didn't steal the cookies shit. Hell no they haven't learned a damn thing other than they suck at lying.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:17 | 172352 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

The RC mint's gold is held on account of which i understand the Gov of Canada owns a mere 3.4 tonnes.  Mining companies send their dore bars for refineing and the resulting .9999 is held on account untill sold.  I personally don't believe this story as the mint would have under any normal circumstance known how efficient their refining process is.  Canada was the first to isssue a .9999 coin (too soft if you ask me).  That said a few years ago a mining company staked the Ottawa river at the Mint.  The mints efflent had been going into the river for years and apparently there was significant gold in the river by the Mint.  The Slag though should have had an assay associated with it prior top sale just like shipping concentrate.  Selling slag of unknown precious metals content is bullshit.  Any geochemist metalurgist would know the slag would be rich in PGE's, Tellurides, Silver, Copper and other rare elements. 

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 20:11 | 173231 trav777
trav777's picture

any .99xx coin is too soft.  Nothing carries like a krugerrand, but as these things have become wealth storage means, a lot of interest has been driven into pure instead of crown.

Pocket carry of a 1oz is not a likely thing and the eagles seem to dominate the sub-1 market

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 00:28 | 172387 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Tungsten (symbol W) facts:

http://www.periodictable.com/Elements/074/data.html

Gold (symbol Au) facts:

http://www.periodictable.com/Elements/079/data.html

Boiling point of Au: 2856 °C
Melting (yes, melting, not boiling) point of W: 3422 °C

Note that Au is boiling well before W is melting. One has to have a sophisticated furnace and industrial environment to work with W.

Vickers hardness of Au: 216 MPa
Vickers hardness of W: 3430 MPa

W is hardest metal element. It is brittle and very difficult to mill.

http://www.periodictable.com/Properties/A/VickersHardness.v.log.html

Specific heat of Au: 129.1 J/(kg K)
Specific heat of W: 132 J/(kg K)

W carries more heat per unit mass than Au. Drop two bricks of the same mass, heated to the same temperature into identical volumes of water, each being identical in temperature, and the brick containing W will transfer more energy to the water. (1 J = 0.239 Cal)

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:07 | 172257 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

lol, gosh wonder where the 40-1 leverage the banks wanted went too, yeah yeah yeah, a global growth story, get it passed, short the dollar, buy commodities, and when the banks go pfffffffffffffffff

you're local SEC protecting good mericans

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:09 | 172260 order6102
order6102's picture

"stocks for the long run" - CNBC... :)

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:35 | 172275 B9K9
B9K9's picture

The best way to hold gold is to have it stored in a Swiss vault.

Here's a shout out for Cougar_W: Dude, don't be so depressed. There is always a (bright) future. Here's what Thomas Paine, a great patriot, had to say about what you're currently feeling in his "American Crisis" series of pamphlets. This passage was read aloud to the Continental army by G Washington on December 23, 1776, two days before the Battle of Trenton:

These are the times that try men's souls: The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.

Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.

 

 

 

 

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 20:13 | 173233 trav777
trav777's picture

yeah, ask jews about the sanctity of Swiss vaults

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:35 | 172278 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

YOU CAN'T EAT GOLD.

Anyway, we told you so, bitches!!!

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:45 | 172284 fiasco
fiasco's picture

that's a true

at least you can make a salad from dollars

once again, chumbawamba

your name is more complex than your ideas

 

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:48 | 172286 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That's right bitches!  We got gold, you got squat!  The drop in price makes me want to take a couple hours off tomorrow to go and buy some more.

I am an Asian Rolling Bearing.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:59 | 172295 fiasco
fiasco's picture

you had me-a puking at asian

it's-a joke the dice man could not resist

 

 

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 07:15 | 172480 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

...how about some Dollar Bill soup then??

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 15:10 | 172854 geopol
geopol's picture

Slice up a bill, any denomination, roll it in ZigZag, and smoke it, It's the balls. The higher the inflation rate the higher you go....Something about the ink..

 

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:46 | 172285 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

AAPL bugs did way better than gold bugs.

$100 = $800. About 2x as well. Better this year, and better this month.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:15 | 172622 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

But you can't eat Apple!

Er, wait a second...uh, nevermind.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 21:57 | 172293 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Also, I think gold bugs lost the last 2 decades 10-to-1.

What do the next tens year look more like? 1999-09 or 79-89, 89-99?

Easy bet.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 22:04 | 172299 Rusty_Shackleford
Rusty_Shackleford's picture

Gold and silver are to be bought.

 

I am Rusty_Shackleford

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:12 | 172343 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Done & done.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:21 | 172629 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

+baked beanz

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 22:07 | 172302 David449420
David449420's picture

Sorry, people I don't see it yet.

The big one is coming. 

But its not here, yet.

You're going to see a spike as big or bigger that there was on 2008 when the crash occurs.

 

 

 

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:00 | 172335 bbbilly1326
bbbilly1326's picture

"You're going to see a spike as big or bigger that there was on 2008"

 

uh, which part of '08, March, or November ?  big difference..........

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:29 | 172356 David449420
David449420's picture

Look at the chart presented. See that outsized spike?  March, November, Year.  Isn't important. 

When it happens (soon, I think) we will ALL know it. Won't be any doubt whatsoever.

 

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:15 | 172346 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Like the general idea of being long gold now. BUT knowing it was the top performing asset class for the last decade does not thrill this semi-contrarian soul - general public loves rear view mirror investing and is generally wrong. I understand slicing things by decades are just arbitrary time-frames, but still.

I would feel better about being very long gold now if it was in the bottom half of the asset class pack in recent years.....

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 20:01 | 173223 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

If gold were "in the bottom half of the asset class pack" it would not be needed to do the job it does.  There would not have been a need to move my money to the classic store of value. Your logic is a bit convoluted.  Sorta like:  If I ain't gettin' any sex why do I need a condom?  If I'm gettin' some, and I don't have the proper protection, then I'm just late to the party... and screwed.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:19 | 172353 walküre
walküre's picture

Here's my take on a lower gold price.

The truth is out there. Gold is the way to protect wealth. Europeans, Asians, Americans North and South, Africans and Australians that have wealth to protect are going to buy gold. They know the US cannot cook their books anylonger. The truth is that the US governments on the state and federal level are indebted and funds are drying up. Debt ceiling breached, liabilities current and future increasing, revenues spiraling downward... money leaving town...

Well, there is no way out and everyone that is concerned about their wealth is getting the same picture.

If gold goes lower the fireworks will start. There already isn't enough physical gold to meet the demand.

Gold to $2500 in 24 months then to da moon.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:37 | 172359 David449420
David449420's picture

This is the best that your financial manipulators appear to have been able to do.  They are clearly not going to succeed. I don't think its going to hang together for much longer. 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 09:36 | 172518 loki
loki's picture

That's what I thought, too... but it appears the manipulation and obfuscation of our economy will continue.... funded completely by us (and the dolts stupid enough to lend us money.)

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:46 | 172364 walküre
walküre's picture

Checkout the Reuters story.
Senate Christmas Eve vote on debt ceiling.
It says in there in exactly these cuddly words that the US would risk DEFAULT by end of December 2009 (31/12) if the measure wasn't approved.

They get 290 billion more funny money and that's just a start. They had asked for 1.8 trillion of money out of thin air. Funds that are not there now or ever will be. Nobody can ever repay the debt unless we get hyperinflation.

Of course the standards of living will suffer greatly but not for those that have millions or billions and converting more and more often to gold.

FYI this is not a one party issue. Republicans and Dems are political whores and the johns and pimps tell them where to stand on what corner, what to wear and what to do.

Tue, 12/22/2009 - 23:53 | 172368 romario
romario's picture

If we go below 960 we get into a bear market for gold... beware

 

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 01:10 | 172409 walküre
walküre's picture

I don't think the same "bear" vs. "bull" market terminology applies when it comes to gold. Gold is the oldest, safest and most widely recognized currency since currencies. If you had millions and slowly realized that this game of "money out of thin air" is about to end, where do you put your wealth? Anything paper is merely a debt note of that issuer, a title to a payment at some point in the future. When the market for such paper goes kaboom, you need to have metal to protect any form of wealth. I thought this was far fetched but it really isn't all that much hyperbole when you understand how people feel about wealth and wealth protection.

Gold below 960, no problem. Buy it if you can.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 02:09 | 172431 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+1

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 09:13 | 172508 loki
loki's picture

+1

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 10:35 | 172555 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Yeah, and in 2007, anybody that would listen was "buying houses when they can" because "housing has gone up 10% every year, everybody needs it, and it's the safest asset to get into!"

We know how that worked out for those people.

When your barber is giving you stock and commodities tips (remember the oil bubble?) it's time to get out of that sector totally!

My barber has some gold maple leafs he'll sell you at 1250 an ounce!  OUCH!

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 10:50 | 172566 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'm not an economist but if your "barber has some gold maple leafs he'll sell you at 1250 an ounce" then I think the barber is implicitly recommending a short, therefore it's still a contrarian buy signal. If he was bullish he wouldn't be selling his gold...

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:20 | 172628 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

You just happen to have a very well-informed barber.  Chill out.  It's not a bubble dude.  Modern civilization is the bubble.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 15:11 | 172858 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Chumbawamba,

 

"Modern civilization is the bubble"

 

You are correct my friend.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 16:04 | 172939 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"Modern civilization is the bubble"

Holy shit, dude. +1000

In the interest of spreading holiday cheer, some of you may want to read up on this fellow and his classic work, "The Collapse of Complex Societies":

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter

Now excuse me while I go practice my flint knapping!

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:22 | 172633 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

J6P leveraged to the hilt to buy that house. PM's, not so much.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 06:36 | 172476 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

If we go below 960 we create a supply demand dynamic that eats supernova's for breakfast. 1200 was keeping things sort of maybe working but the stupid banks think temporarily tanking it to get more sellers and more supply will alleviate their troubles. Then once they tank it they stupidly keep it down causing even bigger troubles. If they had let it ride on up to 1400 it would have stabilized but NOOOOO. Silver would have stabilized if they had let it get to 32 an ounce. They are getting harder and harder hit. Panic to save this month is causing panic to destroy next month.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:25 | 172636 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

It does seem counter-intuitive that the mint stops minting, and the price starts falling

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 13:20 | 172738 Crime of the Century
Crime of the Century's picture

India bought 200mt @ $1045 - why expect them to wait for $960 to buy more? The Beijing Put is still on as well...

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 20:18 | 173239 trav777
trav777's picture

have to see what caused the last bear market in gold.

it wasn't chart dynamics, it was the reagan growth era.  Now that point of recognition is achieved that growth stops here, in the form of multiple commodities production peaks, and the US's "growth miracle" is seen to be all unpayable debts, the dynamics are different.

WTF is going to come along that changes us back to 1982?

Stop paying attention to fucking random lines on charts and start looking at fundamentals.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 00:23 | 172383 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Who needs gold ?. Cramer said tonite that AMZN is going up another 60% to >$220 in 2010. When cnbs charlatans are pitching stocks with pe ratios of 120 and the brokerages are upgrading compaies with no earnings (AA) are we not at the top ?.

The market rallies every time GDP is revised downwards and unemployment goes up. It is fucked.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:22 | 172632 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I wonder, doesn't Cramer fear for the integrity of his sphincter once the game ends and some angry Cramer fans corner him in a dark alley?

Or maybe he enjoys that sort of thing?  Probably.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 00:38 | 172386 phaesed
phaesed's picture

In a game where everyone tries to win, nobody does.

A lot of you are claiming capitalism is currently dying and you couldn't be further from the truth. Capitalism died back when Kennedy was assassinated and the banks took back all power. Capitalism died in 73 when the FFB came into being. Capitalism died in 1980 when Carter signed -Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act (DIDMCA). Capitalism died when Reagan passed Garn - St Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982 and when  Charles Keating's Lincoln Savings and Loan caused no permanent outcry and criminals were re-elected and forgiven.

You say Capitalism created the greatest middle class in the past 30 years.... How great would the middle class be if the CEO to Wage Labourer was only 50x? Even that would be one of the highest in the world.

You're all fools if you believe that the market is free. We are all fighting for scraps and will continue to do so until we all work together.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 00:50 | 172397 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

All we need is the rules of the game known by all and enforced. of course that would be a 180 from where we our now

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 00:50 | 172398 phaesed
phaesed's picture

Oh and if you need further proof, look at what the market was doing in the days before each of those legislations were passed.

The market crashes and the banks asked for more power to prevent the crashes.

I think you all know basic math by now.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 03:13 | 172445 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Outstanding commentary, phaesed.

And, yeah... I totally agree.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 08:45 | 172497 jbcorwin
jbcorwin's picture

+1

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 01:43 | 172423 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Hmm, I don't know who here is arguing that the markets are in any way free, or that the system in place is anything other than klepto-socialism on a scale that would have sickened the most sociopathic, corrupt and avaricious Roman emperors and adventurer-generals. Hell, I wish Caligula would come back and replace OUR Senators with horses.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 13:02 | 172509 loki
loki's picture

+1

I can't wait to finally move to 100% cash/gold....

Update: as of 11:00 EST, I am cash/gold 95% and 5% small amounts mixed S&P, other equities.

 

I have never seen such a messed up market... I don't even know what to do right now.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 20:24 | 173248 trav777
trav777's picture

Absolutely true.

The heydey of this country was when we were a PRODUCER nation where the executives made a 25x multiple of the workers.

The unions' purpose was to ensure wage flatness, and companies paid dividends.

Then, FIRE took over.  Ponzis.  Now the bankers and execs and union bosses ALL GET PAID from the inflation trough to screw everybody below them.

Management has hijacked EVERY SINGLE institution for their own personal ends.

And ownership let them because of the ponzi share price growth.  The unions got bought off, everyone at the top got drunk off the cheap credit and being at the highest levels of the pyramid schemes.

The pensions and mooch funds should have forced the CEOs to disgorge those profits to the shareholders instead of into their own pockets.  Who here owns a business and lets their managers decide to pay themselves all the profits while passing nothing onto ownership except some kind of "book value" bullshit that has twice turned out to be a complete fiction?

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 01:22 | 172414 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

Back to gold as commodity discussion, sure 1999 to 2009 is a goldbug's dream...sort of. Any commodity would have done well. In fact, everything does well nominally except for the USDollar. Keep in mind fiat currency has been active globally for around 40 years. There is no real comparison for the current period of time and previous centuries. We have pretty much had a gold standard except for a period in the late 1800's-which begot a huge deflationary disaster. That period is what is similar to today. Experimentation in non-backed fiat currency unravelled lickety split. Even the 30's is a mediocre comparison.

So, if FIAT implodes, it will be after another brief experimentation with undisciplined fiat. Gold's real(read REAL purchasing power against all other commodities) gets stronger in a deflation and it becomes more liquid and fungible as fiat and credit supply implodes.

If you were a gold bug and loving gold in the 1999 to 2008 period, the price of gold was tracking nominally against currencies but it's REAL purchasing power didn't do anything spectacular. When the EURO falls apart, you all will really love your gold then.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 01:22 | 172415 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

Back to gold as commodity discussion, sure 1999 to 2009 is a goldbug's dream...sort of. Any commodity would have done well. In fact, everything does well nominally except for the USDollar. Keep in mind fiat currency has been active globally for around 40 years. There is no real comparison for the current period of time and previous centuries. We have pretty much had a gold standard except for a period in the late 1800's-which begot a huge deflationary disaster. That period is what is similar to today. Experimentation in non-backed fiat currency unravelled lickety split. Even the 30's is a mediocre comparison.

So, if FIAT implodes, it will be after another brief experimentation with undisciplined fiat. Gold's real(read REAL purchasing power against all other commodities) gets stronger in a deflation and it becomes more liquid and fungible as fiat and credit supply implodes.

If you were a gold bug and loving gold in the 1999 to 2008 period, the price of gold was tracking nominally against currencies but it's REAL purchasing power didn't do anything spectacular. When the EURO falls apart, you all will really love your gold then.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 01:27 | 172418 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I am defaulting on my mortgage and buying an ounce of gold each month from now on with the mortgage payment.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:25 | 172638 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Bravo!

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 20:22 | 173245 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Great idea. A friend of mine hasn't made
a house payment in 2 years (Florida)
The bank must have abandoned the prop.
He could be 30 ounces ahead, had he adopted
your plan. I couldn't get him interested in
gold though...

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 01:30 | 172419 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I remember, not so long ago, some nimrod financial columnist saying that you were better off stuffing your garage full of LCD monitors as a hedge against inflation than gold. I love that the idiot managed to pick one of the few things in this world whose price actually manages to DEFLATE - as would be the case for ALL goods, of course, if not for the Niagara of green toilet paper from the Eccles building. The irony is no doubt lost on him. Hope he took his own advice, at least.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 01:38 | 172421 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

the decades winner is misinformation..................

Dec. 23, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EST · Recommend · Post:
Winning the trial, losing your house
Trying to prevent foreclosure while waiting for a permanent loan modification

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Question: I have also made trial payments under the Making Home Affordable program. But my house truly was in foreclosure and I spoke with an attorney. Your advice in your column is wrong. They can foreclose, they will foreclose, and they are foreclosing on thousands of people who have made their trial payments every month! See previous Realty Q&A.

There is nothing written into this program that provides any penalty for lenders if they do not modify a loan. They very clearly state that you are not actually approved for the program, and stipulate that the magical approval (or denial) will happen at some unspecified future time.

http://tinyurl.com/yje9mtc

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 09:23 | 172510 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"the simplest commodity known to man clearly "out-thought" five business school generations of the smartest men in the room, whose financial weapons of mass destruction brought nothing to the world than the abyss of systemic collapse."

I really like that line. However, after thinking about it, I concluded that while the smartest men in the room may have wreaked havoc on the world'd financial system, it was personally very rewarding for the vast majority of them.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 17:24 | 173053 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Gold is 4-5%/yr the last 100 years.

It out-thinking some, but not most, and it rarely outperforms any smart risk taking.

This year is a good example -- up what 20-30%? Plenty of better risks. This decade, -- up what 200-300%. Plenty of better risks. Last decade -- flat. Decade before that -- down 60%.

Its never hard to beat gold. Bitches!

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 10:32 | 172550 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Here comes some douche going "GOLD BITCHES!" 

Gold to 973,000 by January 15th!

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:27 | 172642 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

<chuckle>

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 10:36 | 172558 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Chumbawumba is a retarded slut!

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 12:29 | 172645 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Wait, are you talking about me?  I'm retarded, certainly, but I'm a virgin and quite chaste, thank you.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 13:36 | 172754 Crime of the Century
Crime of the Century's picture

Such restraint, must be the holidays!

Frankincense & Myrrh, Bitches!

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 14:03 | 172782 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Myrrh can't catch a bid.

Wed, 12/23/2009 - 15:44 | 172908 geopol
geopol's picture

Not only that, but he spelled your name wrong.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!