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And Fed Fund Futures Awake
Major move in Fed Fund futures today, with the implied probability of a rate hike to 1.25% by November 2010 nearly doubling to 14% from 8.1%. In fact major move to the right across the spectrum, as expected Fund rates at 1% or higher surging by over 50% and now coming it at 45.4% compared to 31% as recently as yesterday. The inflation hawks case just got stronger by about 50% as well. Yet with trillions more in bad real estate assets on bank balance sheets still needing Fed purchases, the Chairman is truly between a rock and a hard place.
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Maybe they fudged the employment numbers today as an excuse to raise interest rates in the near future? Thats the only way they can do it and look competent. The US of A is looking more and more like a corrupt ponzi scheme.
Not even an honest one! A corrupt Ponzi scheme! I agree, something is definitely up. I wonder too if the Burnedwankster is reacting to his congressional grilling.
Possible.
Probable. Spike the dollar. Crush the Goldbugs.
I keep asking Gold bugs I know to be a little cautious. I have a bad feeling about some of this.
I keep getting credit card offers with 0 APR then with variable rates in late 2010. I woner if the banks know something? Hmmmmmm.
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I don't have a lot of gold (I don't have a lot of anything), but I'm curious, how is holding gold not being cautious? (Not trading, but holding physical gold.) Do you really expect the US Dollar to strengthen and remain strong, and economic fundamentals to fill up the asset bubble? Is Amazon going to have a mind-blowing holiday season?
And/or is the supply of gold really going to skyrocket? Are people going to suddenly reverse on thousands of years of gold's history?
In my truly humble opinion, the dollar and US stocks are the riskiest place to be right now.
I agree though, I have a bad feeling about this too.
Who knows why these numbers were fudged? It is certainly a perfect time do it and get away with it. I expected better employment numbers for the next month because of hiring season (may argue firing season here as well) - not just yet - but it's easy to shift few numbers from month to month. Dishonorable f**k Mr. Bernanke may just look better for re-reconfirmation hearing. Besides, it's holiday season so please don't expect economic indicators to be realistic.
The fed funds rate has more to do with how healthy the banks are than it does with price inflation control. Only when the big banks are in a position to capitalize on it will the fed funds rate be increased.
On the SPX there a big 50% Fibonacci retracement of the whole bear market at 1121. If that goes convincingly, then it's next stop 1228.
Am I the only one that finds the ads for Ally Bank running on zero hedge to be terribly ironic? Perhaps Ally Bank's rate offerings have been prescient. (giggle)
I see gold ads...
So say we all, TF. Hypocritical or ironic, take your pick.
"You didn't say I could have a real pony."
"Well, you didn't ask."
Tell Ally I'll open an account with them if in the next commercial they have that pony being ridden around the room by a topless MCC.
I run NoScript with Firefox. Ads do not appear!
+1...Ad Blocker here.
We firmly stand behind our, and Chris Whalen's views of Ally Bank being a tortured soul, headed for purgatory.
Do you think, Lord TD, by any chance there's a correlation between Fed Fund Futures and Floating Rate Notes linked to the CPI??
I would rather see Ally bank ads (love the commercial with the kid and the truck) than the pictures of Lord Blankfein.
Good tip on Firefox/scripts.
so how much money did Pimco lose this am?
How about the trillions in interest rate swaps?I don't believe the fed is going anywhere probably for two yearsuntill all swaps are rendered worthless(short term rates at least),or they risk another hidden mayhem
As far as I'm concerned, implied rate hikes imply future currency crisis
+100
+200
didn't the japs just crank their hedging zeros up yesterday 'bout Treasury sales?
I wonder if "japs" take offense at this term or not? Is it like the N-word or is it more like calling us in the US "Yanks." I really don't know.
I think you have to enslave and abuse a minority segement of the population to evoke a "rapid" response to perceived or real marginalization. I think going back to "wwII" racism terms is fairly abusive. Japan is an EXTREME example of a saturn society with EXTREME examples control of expression and control of conformity along with EXTREME examples of expression of rebellion through uranus. Nobody does weird shit like the japanese. All you can really do is if you see people trying to replicate that pattern with blacks is try your best to break jaws. I know any talk of nuking japan and I'll personally be out beating people to death with my CRC handbook of physics and chemistry. The isotope section is good for crushing kneck vertebraes when applied to the head.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Is3icfcbmbs
War is peace
Slavery is freedom
Going head ON is the only way to head OFF subtle manipulation.
So, "Nips" it is, then.
Where's Leo K? - he has been so right on this market as in equities (along with PM on Gold)
You'd think implied rate hikes would scare the market, since the only thing running it up is free money.
indeed, ivanovich--always with the succinct insights
That would be true during conventional times, but the equity guys recognize the Fed isn't moving any time soon whatsoever, regardless of labor or CPI figures.
Bernanke is definitely between a rock and a hard something...
Were it all possible I'd love to see how much of the $ carry trade is actually people borrowing dollars and buying other things. I saw an alternate hypothesis yesterday (i can't find the link, sorry) that was postulating the carry trade is dominated by domestic sellers of securities who then invest the proceeds overseas. Sell your Treasury for example and buy a Brazilian soverign.
The distinction is important because in the framework I outlined above rate hikes really would not be able to do much to stem the carry trade. Nobody is going to find short term Treasuries more attractive after a rate hike if things like the 2yr are still yielding under 100bps in the context of an economic "recovery".
I think this came from Paul Kasriel (Northern Trust), about a month ago.
True, they can't have it both ways. Too bad for Barrick, pulling off their hedge at the peak.
Hell they've tried everything else why not raise?
Implied future currency crisis confirms flailing.
this is going to make bridgewater's year.
Why is that? I haven't seen anything from Dalio since early in the year.
Supposedly beggars were included as employed in this months statistics Ü
The vampire squids no doubt inked all over themselves (with uncontrolled glee) this AM. Much bubbly will go down this weekend at the Hamptons.
Nothing will scare a market that is playing with other people's money. As long as the liquidity is free.....who cares what anything implies. Get long.......it's the PATRIOTIC THING TO DO!!!!!!!!!
Starve the beast.....Fuck the banks!
Agree, starve the beast.... and... Fuck The Fed!
Roubini relaunching his site no more RGEmonitor now roubini.com
http://www.roubini.com/index.php
Cult of personality. Ritholtz.com please meet roubini.com. Surely Plato is smiling somewhere at the "things" that people have become.
that reminds me, everyone be sure to check out
http://www.steakdidyourmom.com/images
Jawboning is easy, especially right after Big Ben needs to wave his hands a lot after having his buns lightly toasted yesterday. A DX breakout above 75.5-76 might indicate something has changed. This looks more like consolidation to me. (a few hours of market action could soon make me look like an idiot though).
I'd love to see this "positive jobs number" be the catalyst for a dollar carry trade unwind -- and tank the market.
I've been noticing one month T Bill rates creeping up from one to seven basis points over the last couple of weeks
(according to CNBC). With the 3 month bill at 4 basis points. All kinda strange, maybe my treasury direct roll will pay for dinner for two this month!
There will be no rate hikes. None. Zero. Nada. And that is how you will know that, government doctored unemployment reports notwithstanding, there has been no improvement in the economy.
Look! The Fed's policies are a success! EVERYBODY BACK IN THE POOL!
Gold price crashes... -3.33%
max pain for leveraged bugs. i really gotta wonder about this action on such a wishy-washy employment report (how is this a market mover?), considering the fact that Comex wouldnt return my phone calls for like 4 days in a row regarding their new 'cash-settlement' category, the collapse in Comex daily volume, etc.
Well I for one am looking for alot of competition in the cash for gold space.
Hi. I'm Jimmy Wong. Gold is at an all time high. Come on down to Wong's World and sell your broken or unwanted jewelry. Because well. Comex is a dry hole and it's going to be farting gold dust next month. The pretense of an established market is over. It's bargaining time. I wonder If I can get Faustian to sit on my shoulder and whisper in my ear.
Bull Markets end on Good News.
This is not the number you wanted if long equities because you can rule out any second stimulus. If things have in fact "turned the corner" then there will be more cries for the Fed to hike rates and stimulus programs to be removed.
Secondly, the Case Schiller trading index is actually forecasting "Lower" home prices after the news (spike in rates driving prices down)
And Krugman even says "Good News is Bad News"
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/04/good-news-is-bad-news/
I love the logic on this one. for 8 months we get one bad jobs report after the next, and he market goes up, presumably due to the assured continuation of liquidity since things suck so bad. Then, if the jobs picture improves at all, stocks go up since of curse we are all better now and companies will be raking it in soon enough. So, by this logic, what would have to happen for the market to go down? Neither good news nor bad?
But where do you see gold in 2-3 yrs? Or even 5 yrs... or more?
I think in 5 years the US dollar will no longer exist in its current form, it will be replaced with a regional currency or with SDRs
You also "staked your reputation" that the market would crash before the end of the year...you have three weeks to keep your rep - LOL
Agree with the thought on a shorter timeline. It'll be a NOLLAR ......a continental North American currency. For starters.
Last year, I came across some literature discussing an 'AMERO', and Wikipedia has something about a 'NORTH AMERICAN UNION'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_currency_union
US is still bankrupt.
I'd really like a dollar spike to crush equities, make a bunch shorting again and then buy gold with it.
Congress will take over monetary policy if they think that printing and stimulus will appease the sheeple
Would buy gold with both hands if it went under 1000, and I already have plenty. A .2% drop in a totally fabricated and cooked number doesn't change my view of things.
I guess we will find out just what "Fixed No matter what" really means on our 7% fixed versus 14% Rate in 10 months.
Another sign, the Ditech commercials have begun another push.
well...if we head into stage 2 of collapse like GD1, then we'll soon see the market AND bonds start to sell.
Strange that today TLT is red while the DXY is up, gold down, equities flat. Collapse in bonds = currency crisis no matter what the DXY is
Probably should check those zip codes...