And Here Comes Bank Of Lynch's Ethan Harris Plagiarizing Hatzius (Again) And Lowering Q1 GDP

Tyler Durden's picture

In an absolute stunner of an announcement Bank of Countrywide Lynch's top notch head of economoplagiarism follows in Jan Hatzius' coattails once again and lowers Q1 GDP. All of Wall Street will promptly follow as it always does.

From Bank of America

Trimming 1Q GDP

Our tracking model is pointing to ever weaker Q1 GDP growth. In the past week, weak construction and consumption data added to the bad news. In nominal terms consumption increased 0.7% in February, but with the deflator up 0.4%, that implied a modest 0.3% real gain. Moreover, base effects are hurting the quarter: weak growth in December and January started the quarter off on a bad note. As Table1 shows, even if we get a modest upward revision to the prior two months of 0.2 ppts cumulatively and a solid 0.3 pp gain in March, annualized consumption growth will only be 2.3% in Q1. Even with generous assumptions for the  missing data, we estimate Q1 GDP growth is adding up to just 1.5%. The weaker first quarter growth pulls down our full year GDP growth rate by a tenth to 2.5%.

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Misean's picture

More free moniez or we crashes the markets!

TruthInSunshine's picture

That's officially called a 'TARP South' in the Goldman Sachs play book, now. Some refer to it as a 'TARP Tanker' also.

covert's picture

ponzinomics will save us from the truth!


Drag Racer's picture

I was scanning the headlines looking for the reason for the dip just before the open, of course the reason was explained here first... nice

TruthInSunshine's picture

This will become known as a Hatziun in economic smoke & mirrors parlance.

See also Hatziunism.

Spalding_Smailes's picture


WASHINGTON, D.C. – Jan. 11, 2011 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported that 2010 saw annual total carload traffic on U.S. railroads increase 7.3 percent with 14.8 million total carloads, compared with 13.8 million carloads in 2009. Total annual intermodal traffic in 2010 increased 14.2 percent with 11.3 million total truck trailers and shipping containers, compared with 9.9 million trailers and containers in 2009.


WASHINGTON, D.C. – March 31, 2011 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported rail traffic gains for the week ending March 26, 2011, with U.S. railroads originating 299,903 carloads, up 1.9 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week was also up 5.7 percent compared with the same week last year, totaling 223,034 trailers and containers. Eleven of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases from the comparable week in 2010. Those groups posting significant increases included: pulp, paper and allied products, up 19.4 percent; motor vehicles and equipment, up 12.7 percent; chemicals, up 12.1 percent, and petroleum products, up 12.1 percent. The commodity groups reporting a notable drop in weekly traffic were primary forest products, down 20.6 percent; coke, down 15.4 percent, and waste and nonferrous scrap, down 11.1 percent.

Weekly carload volume on Eastern railroads was down 1.4 percent compared with the same week last year. In the West, weekly carload volume was up 4.2 percent compared with the same week in 2010. For the first 12 weeks of 2011, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 3,468,044 carloads, up 5 percent from last year, and 2,621,919 trailers and containers, up 7.9 percent from the same point in 2010. Combined North American rail volume for the first 12 weeks of 2011 on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 4,496,182 carloads, up 3.9 percent compared with the same point last year, and 3,248,771 trailers and containers, up 7 percent compared with last year.


vote_libertarian_party's picture

Maybe it's all of the mfg plants being demolished and shipped to steel recyclers.


Good for railroads, not really a good sign for the economy though.

Tyler Durden's picture

But, but, the Baltic dry index feel 1.4% to 1,498 points. How does one possibly reconcile these two hugely important inflection points?

TruthInSunshine's picture

The shipping Smailes speaks of are loads of Hopium.

There's an assload of Hopium being manufactured and shipped at this point in American History.

Hopium temporarily blinds some in the human species to reality, and is one of the more nefarious Noble Gases.

When Hopium combines with any radioactive element (often referred to as Fukushimization) it can cause temporary delerium.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Many new ships coming online from previous orders ( massive oversupply issues from 2007 orders • future projections )..... And the floods in Australia and the issues with Japan.


Japan, the world’s second-largest customer for dry-bulk lines after China, imports all the iron ore it uses for making steel because of a lack of local natural resources.

This year’s peak-shipping season, which usually runs April to May, may be a month longer because of extra demand in Japan, said Jee Heon Seok, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities Co. in Seoul. “Japan will probably need to boost imports because of this devastating earthquake,” Jee said. “That could provide some relief to an industry that has been struggling from excess capacity.”

SDRII's picture

Interesitng that the rail data is walked up nicely. My recollection is when buffet was asked what metric he tracked most it was railloads. Obama is in a close race with quicky to getb their head up Buffet ass. Perhpps there is some other math you need to evaluate

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

when you can't get a cherry picked piece of data from robottrader you can count on spalding smailes to get her done.

btw: what's the price of silver this morning? also, nice vanishing act friday after you claimed the metals rally was over.

fuu's picture

So rail transport if up against one of the worst years in history by a whopping 1.9%?

Failing like live Sheen.

Urban Redneck's picture

And what was the price of oil this week last year?

Δ truck volume YOY% + Δ rail volume YOY% < Δ GDP YOY%     

101 years and counting's picture

Step 1:  Lower GDP Forecast (Check).

Step 2:  "Correction" in equities (Next).

Step 3:  Summit in WY to pre-announce ponzinomics and monetization.


magpie's picture

Lowering expectations certainly guarantees an upswing if all turns out to be "better that expected" (if the monetization continues at the same pace, that is).

slaughterer's picture

ML was always the stupid kid on the block painting the fence for the smart kid, GS.  Nice to see that some neighborhood pecking orders never die. 

thames222's picture

Hopefully we can boost our exports a lot in the coming months, it's a little messed up to say but it's nice that Japan needs a lot of foreign aid now in the form of exports, just what we need to boost our manufacturing, employment and recovery.