And Here We Go: Goldman Says "News Reinforces Our Sense Of Downside Risk To Q1 Growth"

Tyler Durden's picture

That didn't take long: From Goldman's Hatzius "News Reinforces Our Sense Of Downside Risk To Q1 Growth." Ah, the propaganda bureau's primary dealers: predictable as a Swiss watch. Surely so much has changed since December... How long before RenTec's headline parsers read between the lines and realize that QE3 will launch at the latest by September. Of course, there are a few European near-defaults and passed stress tests in the interim, so the dollar may well jump for a month or two, only to plunge to fresh(er) all time lows once more QE is announced (just prior to which Gross will start buying bonds).

From Jan Hatzius:

BOTTOM LINE: Trade deficit much wider than anticipated on higher import volumes; news reinforces our sense of downside risk to Q1 growth, though it's still early in the quarter. Jobless claims higher but Labor Department cites school holidays as a potential distortion.

1. Despite a healthy rise in exports, the US trade deficit widened substantially in January. The entire increase was due to non-petroleum imports, which rose $7bn on the quarter. The vast majority of this import increase was volume rather than price-related, pushing the real goods deficit in January at $49.5bn versus a fourth-quarter average of $45.2bn. Were this (real) deficit to be sustained through the first quarter, trade would be a substantial drag on Q1 growth - about 1 1/2 points (annualized). However, trade data can be revised and Chinese New Year-related distortions can have a significant impact on US import data in the first quarter, so for the moment we would view this simply as an additional source of downside risk to our 3 1/2% real growth estimate for the quarter.

2. The jobless claims report was a significant disappointment on first glance, with new claims back up near the 400,000 mark after a much lower print last week. However, the Labor Department cited the timing of school holidays as a possible influence on the number last week. Continuing claims--the total number of people in their first 26 weeks of jobless benefits--were essentially in line with expectations, and extended benefits fell by about 200,000 (though how much of this drop was due to people exhausting benefit eligibility is unknown).

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AN0NYM0US's picture

it's the Chinese New Year effect, which when combined with school holidays is a lethal economic combination

Misean's picture

Sounds like a snow-job to me.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

...and don't forget the weather... the earth didn't have weather prior to the economic train wreck...

Sudden Debt's picture









Careless Whisper's picture

well BankofAmerica/CountryWide/MerrillLynch reiterates BUY on NFLX this morning with $275 price target.


bigking12345's picture

gm rats stealing all the govt chesse, we be sinking.

SashaBelov's picture

Hey Tyler! Do you have any news on tomorows Saudi's day of rage? I just cant find anything.

6 String's picture

So....QE III isn't coming right after June 31. You're gonna have to wait for that.

Pants McPants's picture

Something tells me you'll be waiting a long time for June 31.

Sudden Debt's picture

However, the Labor Department cited the timing of school holidays as a possible influence on the number last week


Sounds logic to me....

I'm sorry mister Boss Man! My kid has a school holiday so I'm quitting my dayjob!! SEE YOU NEXT WEEK!


99er's picture


"And here we go." Diamond Top target is 1242.

lizzy36's picture

As long as A.Joesph Cohens S&P 2011 target of 5000 is intact......BTFD.

Mark McGoldrick's picture

I am always amazed that Goldman's HR and PR departments allow AJ Cohen to make such a farce out of their bank.  For him to continually dress up in women's clothing and go on television representing GS is not only unprofessional, it's downright perverse.  He is as much of a discredit to GS, as Mork was to real aliens.    

CitizenPete's picture


Last call for alcohol?  Bloomberg catches up to ZH news.


Fed Gives Markets Clues on Exit From Unprecedented Easing

Cdad's picture

That's why... would seem that today's representatives of the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street are struggling a little with their lying.  I'm talking about those criminals sent to the Ministry of Truth [CNBC] this morning to talk about how collapsing Chinese exports, paired with Euroland confessions about useless debt ratings, are actually really bullish signs.


Funny, lumps in throats, hard swallowing, downward cast eyes...while talking about...shhhhh...the end of Fed stimulus.  Is it finally confession time?   There were ashes on the floor of the NYSE yesterday, and this is the season of Lent.  I wonder if Art Chashin has some Lenten correlation to comment about today?


How could it be that "Peak Oil" is being sold today?  Just how else could that be...other than how close we are to the end of certain things?


serotonindumptruck's picture

Those who worship at the altar of Mammon, will fall before the altar of Mammon.

The death of all fiat is imminent.

Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Can't help but notice Gross talked/soldout/whatever and the rest of the bond market disagreed or is that downward line on yields an imaginary delusion.

johnQpublic's picture

is school considered employment for the young?

are they collecting unemployment benefits during holidays?

this is a mystery,wrapped in an enigma, wrapped in a canoli...

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Eat the canoli... disregard the enigma, mystery, QE, unemployment for kids on school holidays, and the new phenomena of earth weather which did not exist prior to the economic crash...

AN0NYM0US's picture

Rosie come on out of your cave and claim victory for the bears

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Ahem...notice what bonds are doing today.

ivana's picture

U.S. Treasury 2 Year10:05 am03/10/2011 ET 0.666 !!!

partimer1's picture

All the downward guidance to set up for the ultimate QE3.  Nice !

DonnieD's picture

Get those Dow 12,000 hats ready

eurusdog's picture

That poor retail investor just got his ass handed to him on this mornings open. A week of this and QEIII will be a guarentee.

Caviar Emptor's picture

Goldman: "We were for the recovery before we were against it"

TruthInSunshine's picture

      [The mob bosses are assembled together, videoconferencing with Lau]

Lau: Rest assured, your money your is safe.

Joker: [fake laughter done in deadpan voice] Ha ha ha ha, hahaha, ha, ha, ha, oh, a-hee-hee, ha ha, oh, hee ha, ahaha. [returns to normal voice] And I thought my jokes were bad.
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

WOW that is so hilariously funny.


Why is everything being sold but US bonds?

I thought AG was the new storer of value?

I thought Yuan was the new world standard bearer?

I thought Gross said no buyers anywhere?




TruthInSunshine's picture

[Al Pacino voice] - You talkin' to me?

Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Welcome to the world when QE to infinty ceases,

arab ass licking comedy aside.

TruthInSunshine's picture

[dans la voix d'Al Pacino]

Me parlez-vous ?

Hedgetard55's picture

Is it possible that additional QE, even QE3, cannot now raise this market anymore? Tha even Ben's proxies can't hold their nose and buy anymore?


Is it possible that QE2 ends with no QE3 and the market stays stable? No one seems to think this possible.

ivars's picture

With Brent going up sharply again soon, we are close for second peak in this graph,

commencing yesterday, and peaking at around April 1st with Brent crude STABLE above 125 USD, with a possible short spike to 135 USD somewhere near the top.

After that, another downturn to during May Brent 110-115, and then, in June-July upturn to 140-150 USD peak. The scale on the graph is 5-8% below what is really happening, but , if USD strengthens, may be realistic. USD will strengthen still in 2011. Its curreny in which military protection of oil assets is bought.

The Stock market will of course move down all this time ( as it has started from February 18th) till middle May-middle June, with a small return before final realization the USA is heading for recession due to Oil prices and fiscal restraint, as easing to make oil more expensive and spend extra printed money on it makes no sense, as it does not contribute to growth:

I published the graphs on February 6th, so there is some predictive power in them already.

Yardfarmer's picture

it looks like pimpco's dump had its decided effect with the metals and equities tanking hard. coming on the heels of the dizzying spin leaking out of the Fed regarding the withdrawal of QE 3 (yeah, right) and what with all those fudge packed gubmint employment stats, and the "breakout auto sales" it appears that Gandulf, the Lone Ranger and Chuck Norris are all riding to the rescue. meanwhile with Charlie Sheen channeling the psycho-American TV zeitgeist and the CIA/MI6 unleashing the Ikhwan al Muslimin across MENA, we have all the Orks and agents of Sauron massing for the final battle.

On the home front, I had just stepped out my back door to rake the mulch off my onion bed and harvest some spinach from the cold frame, when a police sergeant came running down the alley and told me to take my large snarling Akbash and myself back inside because they were sending a K-9 unit inside the house next door. A SWAT team was positioning itself for the raid. Just a week ago #2 son quit his job at the liquor store when some crack head waved a .38 in his face when he refused to take a blue counterfeit hundo for a bottle of Paul Masson. Just five minutes ago the dog was pounding himself against the fence trying to get at somebody on the other side. Not to worry, it was only the landscape worker next door. After a pleasant little howdy do with him he asked me if I would be interested in an Uzi.$350. Interesting times.

serotonindumptruck's picture

I hope you jumped all over that Uzi deal. It sounds as if your community is a bit more volatile than mine. Good luck.

poor fella's picture

The ramp up to Q-Easy III is going to be glaringly simple to spot. It will follow soon after Waddell & Reed lets Mr. Sausage Fingers enter their futures positions for the hour.

Overflow-admin's picture

Yeah! Let's buy Treasury bonds! </Weimar Ben advice>

HedgeFundLIVE's picture

i'll say it again, as hopefully this time i'll get a better response- short this market! names i'm looking to short:

JW n FL's picture

WARP Factor 3.. QE-3!!

InfiniTimmy.. engage the POMO Rays..

Between the Push of QE-3 and the POMO Rays Pulling us along we may be able to break the bonds of Reality!


If not we will need to Jetison something explosive, so that we may ride those waves of energy away from Reality..

taint's picture

well done tyler