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And More Cold Water From Goldman: "Bernanke Speech Suggests Fed Squarely In Zone Of Inaction"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following the earlier note on the "irrational exuberance of QE3" at current conditions, Goldman does a one-two to the face of the long-only slow money crowd which are about to realize that what goes up the escalator, will go down the elevator, repeating that the next round of monetary easing "would require a notable further deterioration in the outlook to be considered seriously." As a reminder the only "outlook" the Fed keeps an eye out on is the 50 DMA of the Russell 2000.

Just out from Jan Hatzius:

Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at the International Monetary Conference acknowledges slower growth but views this as at least partly due to temporary factors.  Easy monetary policies “are still needed” given the economy continues to perform “well below its potential.”

1.     Fed Chairman Bernanke began his remarks by acknowledging the "slower than expected" growth so far this year.  He specifically cited supply chain disruptions stemming from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami as a factor slowing growth in Q2.  However, despite the "frustratingly slow" pace of recovery thus far, Bernanke sees growth as "likely to pick up somewhat in the second half of the year" as manufacturing activity normalizes and gasoline prices ease a little.

2. Noting the headwind from fiscal drag, Bernanke emphasizes the need to “move quickly to enact a credible, long-term fiscal consolidation plan.”  His wording makes clear that he sees a strong case for rapid decisions and action, but a tightening that is gradually phased in so as not to be “self-defeating”.   Such a plan could also provide short-term benefits if it improved confidence and/or lowered long-term borrowing rates.  In the question and answer session following the speech, Bernanke ducked a question asking him to choose between near-term stimulus and long-term tightening, repeating that he saw the problem as fundamentally long-term in nature. 

3. Bernanke notes "the recent increase in inflation is a concern" but suggests that "there is not much evidence that inflation is becoming broad-based or ingrained in our economy".   Given that gasoline prices account for most of the pickup in inflation, Bernanke takes the view that "developments in the global market for crude oil...rather than factors specific to the US economy" are the main driver of higher inflation in recent months.  Bernanke goes on to argue that the sharp increase in commodity prices in recent years is primarily driven by strong gains in global demand alongside constrained supply, rather than the byproduct of easy Fed policies.  In any case, he expects considerable labor market slack and stable long-term inflation expectations to keep US inflation restrained going forward.

4. No surprises in the commentary on monetary policy:  "QE2" is to wind down at the end of the month, but reinvestment of principal payments on the Fed's securities holdings will continue.  In Bernanke's words: "Although it is moving in the right direction, the economy is still producing at levels well below its potential; consequently, accommodative monetary policies are still needed. Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established."  That implies a fairly high bar for any monetary tightening.  At the same time, there is of course no mention of the possibility of another asset purchase program--this would require a notable further deterioration in the outlook to be considered seriously. In short, we remain well within the “zone of inaction” for the Fed.

5. In the question and answer session following the speech, Bernanke attributed recent weakness in the US dollar partly to the relaxation of risk aversion following the crisis, and partly to the “quite weak cyclical position” of the US economy relative to many trading partners (especially emerging markets).  In his view, the best way for the Fed to support the dollar “in the medium term” is to keep inflation stable and help the US economy recover.

 

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Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:32 | 1348560 Alea Iacta Est
Alea Iacta Est's picture

Tyler,

Check this out: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43313319

You nailed it and now others are realizing it.

SHTF time.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:34 | 1348574 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Dick Bove upgraded Lehman to a Buy 3 weeks before its bankruptcy. In the pantheon of irrelevant, pathologically clueless career circus performers, he is just below cramer.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:42 | 1348589 Alea Iacta Est
Alea Iacta Est's picture

Fool he may be, but even so, he is catching on: “These numbers indicate that the banking system never put the QE2 money to work in the economy,” he says. “They simply redeposited it back in the Federal Reserve itself. However, the new money did have one clear impact. It drove up asset values.”

Game on S&P 1100! (or more)

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:13 | 1348711 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

You do not want Dick Bove on your side. 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:21 | 1348742 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

It's bait and switch time. Looks like he is setting up to be the anti-QE3 cheerleader (by telling the truth too late) in order to help break everything, creating the mandate for... QE3!

Tada!

At which time he will shut up again, until he is needed to handle the next message.

Hegel would be proud.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:21 | 1348745 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

True dat. However, the fact that Bove and Dimon are whining is the first positive sign in years.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:08 | 1348855 overbet
overbet's picture

Anybody? GLD today pacific time

13:17:01 150.43 8 FINRA TRF 13:19:25 150.42 4 PCSE 13:19:25 150.43 4 PCSE 13:19:25 150.43 2 NSDQ 13:19:31 150.38 1 PCSE 13:19:58 1,150.43 100 CHX 13:23:13 150.41 1 PCSE 13:23:38 150.37 1 CBOE 13:19:58 150.43 100 CHX 13:25:13 150.38 1 PCSE 13:26:56 150.36 2 BATS

 

 

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?selected=GL...

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:40 | 1348957 knukles
knukles's picture

It took Little Dicky "weiner envy" Bove this long to figure that out?  And CNBS this long to stage the Revelation?
The timing's about as propitous as Camping's Rapturefest of last week.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:43 | 1348600 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

speaking of Lehman, have you checked the chart lately TD?  maybe it was just a case of "bad timing"?

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:41 | 1348602 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

wut

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:55 | 1348650 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

still trading.  6 pennies.  i agree "tough day today, down 28 percent."  still, has a high of 11 pennies.  still doesn't have the "billion bucks" from Barclay's yet ("appealed")--sounds like a lot of money.  who knew something so little could be so expensive?

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:56 | 1348609 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Lol'

Paging Anton Valukas: Dick Fuld Secretly Transferred Jupiter Island Home To Wife

Posted by Tyler Durden  FRIDAY, JANUARY 23, 2009


While John Thain will be enjoying his creme of the crap status of reviled interior decorators for some time, Dick Fuld is about to upstage him in the shady asset transfer category. Cityfile hasbroken the following bombshell: the Gorilla's $13 million home on Jupiter Island, which was held by both Mr and Mrs Dick, was recently transferred singly to Kathy. Dick sold his portion of the house on 265 S Beach Rd, Jupiter Island to his wife for the princely sum of $100. The transfer occurred on November 10, as the sordid details of Lehman's bankruptcy were becoming public knowledge.

 

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:53 | 1349023 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

 

In what many consider to be the boldest call on the Street in a while, Punk Ziegel's Dick Bove called Citigroup [C  37.58    -0.49  (-1.29%)   ]the best buying opportunity he’s ever seen. 

I think the stock will be trading at $55 in the next 3 years, concludes Bove, which is double from where it is at the present time. “You only get a once in a generation chance to buy a stock like this at this price. This is it,” he says. (March 7, 2008)

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23522110/Trade_Of_A_Lifetime

 

And Cramer from the WSJ last week - 

 

Sent out under Mr. Cramer's name, with the subject line "My portfolio is CRUSHING the S&P 500," the email said Action Alerts PLUS is "producing some truly incredible results." From Jan. 1, 2002, to April 1, said the email, the portfolio's "total average return has averaged more than DOUBLE the return of the S&P 500." An accompanying bar graph showed the S&P 500 returning 15.5%, versus 39.2% for Mr. Cramer's portfolio.

Incredible indeed, if you include dividends for Mr. Cramer's portfolio and exclude them for the S&P 500. With dividends, the total return of the S&P over the same period was 38.3%.

 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576363892725584866.html?mod=WSJ_PersonalFinance_PF5

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:37 | 1349139 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

wish i had the piece you did on how reinvestment of principal payments was not near enough

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:26 | 1348929 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

If the Dollar Bill did say so himself on May 2 ...

http://blogs.minyanville.com/dollar-bill/2011/05/02/the-bernank-hath-spoken/

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 22:27 | 1349452 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

The Fed was paying those banks to keep the excessive reserves at the Fed, which discouraged lending.  You see the Fed used bailout money to bailout banks from all that bad paper.  But in so doing they where paid/told/arm twisted to keep much of the reserves (if not all) at the Fed.  And this was because of the fear of inflation/hyperinflation happening (which is already happening).  They knew that the banks would start over again if allowed to put that money back into the system and re-leverage.  They also knew that if done, all that printed money would do what I described earlier to cause the hot economy to become to hot.  And if they wanted to cool it down they couldn't because raising interest rates would be a dagger on those assets that aren't worth the paper it's written on.  They wanted to hold these assets so that in some future time they can slowly wind them down.

The problem is that these assets where owned by investors, and they still had to be paid regardless.  So the longer you held them the more the value of the house went down compared to the amount of the mortgage or mortgages that where taken out on them, so people where walking away.  And all this shadow inventory that have houses sitting with nobody in it is being damaged to the point that you couldn't sell it if you wanted to for any decent amount of money.  What truly amazed me today was the fact that Obama himself said that he dismisses a double dip recession.  He knows that everything failed and is trying to sing along a silver lining for everybody.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:34 | 1348571 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

That last paragraph is the type of thing that makes you want to smash his face into the ground over and over and over until it is mush, then hang the corpse from the Capitol building's flag pole.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:47 | 1348805 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

These assholes have been claiming the economy is on the verge of recovery for 3 years now, treating us as if we're fuking dumbasses! And maybe we are, for not yet smashing their faces to a pulp and hanging them all up on light poles!

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:07 | 1348866 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Confidence blew with that Fed speech, Dog.  Prepare for Plunging and Screaming trades.  No more free money to criminal syndicate Wall Street = end of the dumbass light volume mark up rally.

So true...three years..."we're almost there"...to our summer of recovery.  Three years and $7 trillion in fiat stimulous.  Unbelievable that the sheeple are so still and so quiet.  Minus a US default, the sheeple have condemned their children to be the payers of this debt nightmare.

Serfs.  All of us.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:15 | 1349092 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Let's see if our children actually pay it though. I'm slowly coming to the opinion that this debt is going nowhere, the next generation is going to laugh at what we've done, and the 100 year central banking clusterfuck is going to end in a spasm of indiscriminate hangings.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:38 | 1348572 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

And yet ZIRP will still be in effect. QE is half the battle (talk about 'inaction').

Nice Goldman, nice.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:42 | 1348607 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

ZIRP & the revenues from QE1&2 - is this not already like drinking 24 beers a day? Or am I stranded in time & space? 8-/

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:56 | 1348654 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

It is, but to call the lack of QE3 'inaction' is a little disingenuous.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:08 | 1348699 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

I tried drinking 24 beers one day at the beach. 

I woke up next to 20 empty beers, 2 empty shot glasses and a half bottle of Patron, naked in the bathtub.

I have no idea what happened after beer 13.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:14 | 1348714 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Re-D,  lightweight.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:17 | 1348726 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Agreed.  Weak performance.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:41 | 1348793 mynhair
mynhair's picture

It's very expensive to achieve a decent blackout.  Too bad they don't last.

(Takillya is the worst - avoid.)

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:24 | 1348744 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

your butt wasn't sore was it?

i imagine it would take a big strong dude to get you up into the bathtub from the beach.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:51 | 1348815 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

come to think of it . . .

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:47 | 1348816 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

come to think of it . . .

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:04 | 1348849 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

lol, good anecdote. Reminds me of Oktoberfest last yr, rather, reminds me of beers 6 and before, nothing after.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:35 | 1348781 redpill
redpill's picture

We'll all be stranded in zombieville.  Banks sitting on free money from the Fed, milking taxpayers with credit card fees while they have their HFT algos "make money" in a perpetual sideways market of meaninglessness.

It's a dream world built to keep us under control in order to change a human being into a financial slave.  Welcome to the desert of the real.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:06 | 1348860 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Except there are no jobs.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:16 | 1349106 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Yeah that's a sticky problem for them, isn't it.

I think they've lost it. Really lost it. Their entire world is slowly imploding around their heads.

Either they jump or we hang them. It's gonna suck to be a banker.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:11 | 1348864 fuu
fuu's picture

bravo

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:12 | 1348705 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

I think Sinclair's description of equites going into the "Blackhole of Calcutta" without QE as being more appropriate.

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=1151

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:48 | 1348803 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

 

With most S&P 500 companies having reported operating profits for Q1 2011, roughly 68% of them have exceeded analysts’ expectations. The highest rate of upside surprises came from sectors historically associated with the midcycle phase of expansion.

The rate of growth for both profits and sales continued to moderate, relative to recent quarters, but remained at healthy levels. Earnings and sales results surpassed expectations across most sectors.

Earnings guidance has remained firm for the coming year, as companies continued to be upbeat about prospects for profitability despite headwinds from higher energy prices and other macro challenges.

Q1 2011 U.S. earnings update - Fidelity Investments

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:05 | 1348845 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Will the huge debt overhang and subsequent interest payments put downwards pressure on growth?

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:07 | 1348862 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL Spalding rice paper thin.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:39 | 1348593 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Awww...let's watch as it's time for tears on Wall Street: waaaa! no QE! 

By late summer this will blossom into a full blown tantrum: if we don't get QE we're gonna blow ourselves up and take the whole economy with us!

Then the overly indulgent father Ben will come through with ice cream for everybody! Yay!!

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:57 | 1348646 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

That has been my call.

Anticipate the inflation deflation swings and play contrarian but it sounds suspiciously easy.

Can the stock market melt up without qe3 and leave me behind in cash?

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:31 | 1348768 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Yes. The USA will be booming over the next few years ...

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:44 | 1348795 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

Will the huge debt overhang and subsequent interest payments put downwards pressure on growth?

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:13 | 1348850 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

No. We have had a brutal debt overhang for a long time everyone is in the same boat. But most peg so they drink uncle ben's inflation and will always feel the pain because of said peg .... The dollar is still King no other choice, not China, not the E.U.

The dollar being low helps the global monsters that call the USA home. Look at the earnings of google, apple, halliburton, boeing, yum brands, starbux, wal mart, ford, prudential, johnson and johnson ....booming over the last 8 quarters

 

 

(Reuters) Tue May 31, 2011 - China's regulators plan to shift 2-3 trillion yuan ($308-463 billion) of debt off local governments, sources said, reducing the risk of a wave of defaults that would threaten the stability of the world's second-biggest economy.

The plan is the first concrete move by the government to tackle the bad debt in local government financing vehicles.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/31/us-china-economy-debt-idUSTRE7...

 

Video

Chinese Economy: Victor Shih, Awash in Debt

Victor Shih 


Wednesday, February 10, 2010 Looming Problem of Local Debt in China-- 1.6 Trillion Dollar and Rising

Did China accomplish the impossible? Did it generate almost 9% growth and maintain low debt to GDP ratio even as its export plummeted by 20%? What about claims that the torrent of investment in China has come without too much leveraging? After spending half a year looking into the debt level of local government investment entities-- some 8000 of them-- my conclusion is no. As in the past, the Chinese government just ordered banks to lend to investment companies set up by both central and local governments. Local governments have fully taken advantage of the green light in late 2008 and borrowed an enormous sums from banks and bond investors starting in late 2008 (well, a large amount even before that). In an editorial in the Asian Wall Street Journal yesterday, I outline some problems with this massive amount of borrowing:

Beijing is no longer sure how much money local investment entities have borrowed from banks and raised from bond and equity investors. The amount, however, must be large. In September, the Chinese press, citing government sources, suggested that these entities have borrowed $880 billion (6 trillion yuan). In a January interview with the Twentieth Century Business Herald, a Chinese newspaper, the vice chairman of the Finance and Economic Committee of the National People's Congress, Yi Zhongliu, revealed that local investment entities borrowed some $735 billion in 2009 alone.

These are mere guesses, however. A National Audit Agency audit conducted late last year uncovered so many problems with the data that Premier Wen Jiabao ordered another large-scale audit of local investment entities. Until a thorough audit is completed and the results announced to the public, no one really knows the total scale of local borrowing.

Given the information vacuum surrounding this issue, I spent half a year collecting data that would allow me to provide an estimate of total local debt (and also for each of China's provinces). Again, in the WSJ piece, I briefly outline my methodology and the results in the piece.

 

To obtain an independent estimate, I collected data from thousands of sources, including regulatory filings, bond-rating reports and press releases of government-bank cooperative agreements. I estimate local investment entities' borrowing between 2004 and the end of 2009 totals some $1.6 trillion. The data are far from perfect because borrowing by low-level government entities and lending by small banks are difficult to track. Nonetheless, my evidence suggests that the scale of the problem is much larger than previous government estimates. At $1.6 trillion, the size of local debt is roughly one-third of China's 2009 GDP and 70% of its foreign-exchange reserves.

http://chinesepolitics.blogspot.com/2010/02/looming-problem-of-local-deb...

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:11 | 1348869 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, USA will be boom boom booming with dirty bombs and other nukes over the coming months.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:40 | 1349156 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

I admire your optimism. Seriously.

/nosarc

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:00 | 1348658 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Yep. Late 2008 redux. Wailing and gnashing of teeth at the loss of QE. If Congresscritters don't relent, market crash will be programmed to go on until the sheep are *begging* for further QE-based slavery. Uncle Lloyd needs his 0.2% Fed window fix so he can *$!*#%@ you in the ass with 30% int on your remaining credit card. Can we parachute Max Keiser into the next Bernanke meeting so he can shriek at him. I would so love to see Goat Boy void in his pants on live tv.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:40 | 1348596 kito
kito's picture

tyler, why cant you accept the possiblity that the fed will just leave interest rates low and that the market may bounce around but not plunge? 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:44 | 1348613 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Ever hear of Trickle Down? No trickle, no tickle. Without smack, this economy is a zombie. 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:42 | 1348799 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Mr Market is now a Frankenstein monster with a $7 billion a day smack habit, this will get ugly fast.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:46 | 1348620 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Because unlike the Fed which is convinced in the stock primacy of LSAP, we in turn are entirely in the flow camp.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2010/201052/201052pap.pdf

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:01 | 1348675 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Because the only thing pushing stocks to 200 P/E bubble valuations was an artificial Fed-provided liquidity which is now being temporarily removed.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:09 | 1348704 Arius
Arius's picture

in simple terms - not having Tyler's background and intelligence - they have to move it up and down in order to kill some weak...

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:18 | 1348723 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

So the only reason the fortune 500 businesses in the USA are making money is because of QE 2 ... ?

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:19 | 1348732 kito
kito's picture

spalding, dare i say you are a voice of reason?!?!?!?

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:10 | 1348873 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Voice of a dumbass, you and Spalding.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:39 | 1348964 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Easy Dog, Spalding is very excitable.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:23 | 1348749 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

I'll take a page out of Bernanke's book here. Those record profits are 'transitory'.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:10 | 1348876 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'd have record profits too if I could get piles of free money to sit on like those banks and funds did.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:37 | 1348791 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Maybe we'll find out, huh?

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:58 | 1348838 hambone
hambone's picture

More than the QE1, QE2, ZIRP, etc. is the sum of all of it wrapped in huge budget deficits / debt and trade deficits...all of it is resulting in the weak dollar on life support.  That is the mothers milk of this rally.

Absent the continuation of the downtrend (via QE3, etc.) in the dollar, I daresay nearly all fortune 500 will suffer and maybe mightily.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:20 | 1348735 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

they don't seem convinced of anything reading that.  "brownian motion" theory??!!!  that's nothing but code for "who the phuck knows?"  ("phucknose?  who has a phucknose?" says the Bernank in one of the more awkward moments of heated Fed policy discussion minutes.)  they weren't even sure if these asset purhcases would have any effect on treasury rates!  as an uber-bear on this project i stand humbled before "the madness of crowds."  (with hat tip to Fukushima as inappropriate and wrong it is to say that.  can't deny its truth, yes, yes?)  and as admitted by the authors "lower yields does not necessary result in higher equity prices either" and of course "may in fact mean the opposite"!  those that have bought into "the bernank" however have been richly rewarded because "what alternative has he given us as asset managers?"  gold?  you gonna advise the NYState Pension Board to "go all in on gold?"  not that i would mind that of course!  point being "it's called buy low/sell high for a reason" and now we know...insofar as the past two years is concerned "100 percent ain't bad."  did the same in treasuries?  how about foreign equities? cash when the Fed is monetizing the debt???? and of course "the big kahuna" called real estate.  "put yourself in the shoes of an actual asset manager and ask what he/she is doing here."  needless to say "this is in no way an indictment of gold or silver as an asset class."

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:53 | 1349014 knukles
knukles's picture

Lemme see here.
If it's;
1.) Temporary and,
2.) Caused by Fuckyoushittin'me then,
3.) Simple Syllogistic logic demands that Fuckushittin'me is temporary.

Now, let us pray....

The disaster in Fuckyoushittin'me is indeed temporary in the following sense....  Somewhere between now and forever, it will be fixed (whatever that might mean, similar to War is Peace or Arbacht mach frei) the mess cleaned up (by what standard is debatable, indeed questionable to the point of moot irrelevance) area repopulated (with what, nobody has a fucking clue) returning to a productive nature (depends upon what the meaning of is, is) so, Benji can rest easy that he's told the truth, the whole truth and noting but the truth, so help him Yo'mamma.
And so can you.

Smiles and applause all around.
Praise be to the God of Mushroom Farming. 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:02 | 1349054 Roaming Uranus ...
Roaming Uranus Looking For Klingons's picture

Tyler, had to junk you.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:23 | 1349118 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Junk me! Albiet I'm 15+ west coast time!

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:27 | 1350716 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

This Fed Res article blew my mind.  My question is what happens when the monthly purchases go down from 100 billion / month down to the reinvestment level of about 17 Billion / month. My guess is it will be a credit, commodity and Stock bloodbath. Right now the players in the know have been and continue to slowly pull out of the market, the tipping point comes when the sheeple start to catch on and pull out. Gonna be an interesting summer.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:04 | 1348687 Boston
Boston's picture

Because Bernanke has now made clear that he wants to see how the patient functions without life support (QE), our best analogy is the post-QE1 period in 2010.

And what happened?

Stocks and commodities plunged.

Treasuries rallied.

Why would history NOT rhyme?

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:12 | 1348878 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Confirmation its all been a total fail.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 21:37 | 1349308 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

 

The Fed can "leave interest rates low" by creating pari passu fake money and making real depositor's money worth-less. Something is worth less when the alternative fake new counterfeit FRNs drive real money into 0.5% de minimus return. What does the current market return in terms of Swiss Francs?

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:45 | 1348605 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Ah, I said it in the previous post: this "Tyler" is the best.  Does Jan have the patent on the phrase "zone of inaction"?  Because it quickly summarizes what is to be expected for the next 6 months: an inactive Fed, just passively reinvesting divi proceeds like an IRA account possessor.  Expect alot less drama in the Fed circus this summer, as the world goes to hell in a hand-basket.  Look towards Trichet and the Motley Euro goons for excitement this summer.  The Fed, it is inactive this summer.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:51 | 1348623 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Bens', ( Scatter Brain) sums it up.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:48 | 1348626 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Flash, August 23rd, 2011: China to provide QE3 as gesture of friendship between nations, and further consolidate it's rescue of the PIIGS, Belgium, Iran and Scotland

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:06 | 1348691 css1971
css1971's picture

Really? Scotland gets it's independence, joins the EU, adopts the Euro as it's currency all by August 23rd?

 

Cool.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:12 | 1348709 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yeah, but China gets control of the golf courses in the deal 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:47 | 1348802 Arius
Arius's picture

thats funny...i hear senator lieberman will be with Glenn beck in Jerusalem the next day, august 24....more turmoil....

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:24 | 1348919 Protonrick
Protonrick's picture

And then China will own, patent, twist and reinvent the meaning of "fair way'' as they drive us down from one hole to the next.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:18 | 1349105 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

That's when you know China has peaked and about to fall off a cliff... when they start buying up the golf courses.  Remember back in 1989 when Japanese investors were buying  paying ungodly sums for golf courses.  It was a sure indication that economic expectations were fully detached from reality.  It will be interesting to see how China handles its stock and real estate markets plunging 75%.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 21:12 | 1349229 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

History may rhyme once again....

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:49 | 1348627 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

The squid is the Queen of Headfakes -- they are gaming you if you don't believe QE will continue...oh sure it will take a Freedom of Info Request a couple years to prove it was going on when they say it wasn't, but they can't raise iterest rates. The Fed is in a box - and not a little Blue one from Tiffany's 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:12 | 1348665 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The squid will say anything to scare people out of bonds. They make money on the spread.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DV5c16vOzSs&feature=related

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:50 | 1348635 belogical
belogical's picture

They are going to have the banks borrow at zero and buy treasuries and make huge bonus profits. Then use those treasuries to back the 600T in derivatives the banks have.  

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:52 | 1348640 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

With goldman saying this, I would look for qe3 announcement with three weeks. Goldman makes statement, markets sells off some, goldman buys the lows and rides it up as fed capitulated on qe. All done with the feds blessing. If they say black, I turn to white. They are as trustworthy as a filthy whore telling you they are clean.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 10:33 | 1350729 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

jtmo3,  well said. +1

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:53 | 1348643 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

TG has been very quiet lately..he usually leads the hit parade,  some pain lies ahead.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 17:55 | 1348653 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Screw Bernanke.  He has no control of geology.

Has anyone even remotely NOTICED that Brent is now about 18 friggin dollars over WTI?  Don't you realize this has never happened before?

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:01 | 1348671 falak pema
falak pema's picture

thats because they are pouring raspberry juice into WTI to up the supply ante..its shows in pricing.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:04 | 1349071 knukles
knukles's picture

Cushing, Oklahoma is drowning in WTI from a myriad of traditional sources to which Canadian sands oil is added.  Many in the oil business believe that this distortion in WTI relative to the rest of the world is not only significant but likely permanent enough to question the validity of WTI as an international crude benchmark.  
You're right.  And a boat load of folks have taken what appear to be quite permanent baths assuming the spread to return to a more "historical" norm.

Next....  Watch the current appeal by several entities in one segment of the oil business who've recently petitioned the SecState's office to halt pipeline deliveries of Canadian tar sands distilates to the US predicated upon "ecological risks."
Yes, read it again.
Go figure.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:01 | 1348670 acabrer
acabrer's picture

Tyler. I love the material you post.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:02 | 1348680 mynhair
mynhair's picture

I missed a lot of the spew.  Saw a deer in the headlights and am now out 1 TV with no venison.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:07 | 1348685 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

The Bernank must be doing something right .... the leeches are impatient!

F@c$ the leeches!!

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:08 | 1348689 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

All those Goldman recos gives me the shivers.....

Probably a huge reversal coming, I'll be ready if it happens.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:11 | 1348698 mynhair
mynhair's picture

1320, or bust!

That's the Weiner Spirit RT!

(Missed the Weiner fare, dammit.)

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:00 | 1348841 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Bruce, my man.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:10 | 1348695 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Once on the dole, always on the dole, bitchez.

The whole "Growth" story in this economy since 2008 has just been easy money, the economic "empty calories" that built nothing. Even glimpsing reality will make 'em sh*t themselves: wake up! We're in the middle of The Greater Depression but we've been too drunk to realize. 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:17 | 1348725 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Some of us do realize, hence the drunk part.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:12 | 1348708 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

No QE3 and No NFL.......Oh No !

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:15 | 1348731 mynhair
mynhair's picture

There is always Australian Idle, for those with Usenet.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:39 | 1348794 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They need the NFL stadiums this fall for New Orleans style roundup points.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:59 | 1349201 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Resettlement camps. One way in. One way out.

The way out is a chimney.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 21:57 | 1349382 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Damn those Judas goats.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:16 | 1348730 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

After all these years does anybody really consider any public statement from the money-worshiping vermin at GS to be actionable?

Its another random disinformation campaign for the bewildered herd and the MSM.  Nobody of any real wealth is getting their investment advice from a public source - not in years - and keeping their wealth.

"Zone of inaction" is GS code for QE3 for the elite banks only.

I really do not see asset prices, employment or the national character improving until the community and regional banks are consolidated under the primary dealers under some Basel 3 tough love program.  So keep waiting for 2018 friends - if there is even an Amerika left.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:30 | 1348754 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Define 'real wealth'.  To be anecdotal, most of my neighbors are old as dirt here in SW FL, and had put into the pig ponzi in the 70's or 80's.  They have zero clue about current conditions and could care less as long as the dividend spice flows.  They made it through 87 and 00, and see no difference now.  It's scary.

AND THEY HAVE BROKERS!

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:29 | 1348757 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

can't argue with bewilderment.  and i mean that literally:  "you LITERALLY can't argue with bewilderment."  i've tried.  it doesn't "work"--"so let's hope it does!"  as such i would argue "the herd is baffled" moreso than "bewildered." sauce for the goose?  have you even seen a "bewildered herd?"

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:31 | 1348763 mynhair
mynhair's picture

"bewildered herd?"

Group shot of the Oblahma administration?

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:25 | 1348758 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Asset prices, employment, and the national character will ALL head south, like you said. Check out David Michael Greer's book, "The Ecotechnic Future". In the "return on energy investment" department, we're badly overdrawn. The only question is, "Will we run out of money before we run out of oil?"

A correlation between oil production declines and debt overhang? Can someone produce the chart???

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:22 | 1348739 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

I can kick the smack man...yeah...I can kick any time. But right now, I'm jonesin' bad, and I might have to break in and steal someone's 401k if I can't get some QE juice quick...

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:42 | 1348792 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Mr Market and his $7 billion a day smack habit....it wont be pretty to see when that is cut off in any way. In fact Mr Market will fly into withdrawals and go on a murderous rampage immediately.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 21:58 | 1349374 el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

+ a nickel bag of QE3

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:32 | 1348770 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

with the Chair Economix dumbell in failure

Austan Foolsby, and that driviot, Jared Bernstein,  for the bumbler,

add the third stoogie, Christine Roemer,

and you got failure of a Keynsian Crapload.

Just add the Berflunky  for taste?

I think Turbo Timmy is smelling in the crapper.

anybody wanna buy an IPO of a car company?

 

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:32 | 1348772 Troublehoff
Troublehoff's picture

Hmm, 10%+ deficits as far as the eye can see and massive unfunded liabilities.... sooner or later, they'll have to print.

I'm not an economist/trader but with ZIRP, aren't the primary dealers effectively able to monetize the deficit?

that seems inflationary to me?

 

look at PM's - they aren't showing any sign of this impending deflationary apocalypse everyone now thinks is imminent... forget the 20% drop that triggers QE3 - QE3 is already here! and when the market realises, the Crack Up Boom will continue.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:40 | 1348787 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Go ahead and print, dollar drops to 60's, oil and PM's sky. So what have they accomplished? Nothing.

Who cares about stocks? At their next attempt to print, stocks wont be able to keep up with the falling dollar, impossible.

Goldman is right here in a way, the FED is faced with inaction...theyre done.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:42 | 1348800 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Actually, I care about stocks.  Got a lot of GPL today.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:53 | 1348823 Troublehoff
Troublehoff's picture

Go ahead and print, dollar drops to 60's, oil and PM's sky. So what have they accomplished? Nothing.

 

That's what they'll have to do to stand still on employment numbers and stocks.

Alternative, don't print = immediate liquidity crisis, sovereign and corporate defaults, skyrocketing unemployment.

 

They'll print.. They ARE printing... QE3 is here - I'm in the Faber/Rogers camp on this one. $150 oil year end and strengthening CNY... USA and EU export prospects will not improve proportionately.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:44 | 1348984 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Tuh Duh! Agreed. They have no choice but to print. There is not enough demand to fund the Treasury otherwise.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:42 | 1348798 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

But in the deflationary apocalypse, all the rules become meaningless. Inflation and QE3 in this case, and all the subsequent QE iterations, are like a man using a shovel to get out of quicksand. 

Or, for another analogy, we'll all die paupers, buried in an avalanche of worthless money. Deflation  is like having no food or water. Inflation in a deflationary apocalypse is like having no food or water on a planet made of solid gold.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:34 | 1348777 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Thank you, POSTERS.  you people amaze me. IN THE BEST WAY! Yen

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:50 | 1348810 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Try a ride on USDHUF.  Looking for 180.02  in and 182 out tonite, maybe.

That's the initial look.  Need 6 more beers.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:57 | 1348836 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 You have the guts enough! I'm on your side!

    YEN

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:03 | 1348847 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Errr, out means 'when I regain consciousness'.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:25 | 1349123 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Out means (CHARTS) study.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:48 | 1348808 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Bernanke sez: Consume you bitchez!

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:52 | 1348819 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

perfect take.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:53 | 1348828 Troublehoff
Troublehoff's picture

haha - yes - we're like his horse

he's digging in his spurs and flogging us but we've run out of juice

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:19 | 1348887 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly, we've been rode like mad loaded down with piles of debt heaped on us, and Bernank yells 'GIDEYUP, RUN FASTER'!!

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 18:55 | 1348832 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Just after 25:30 in this video, Bernanke announced QE3.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000026286

Continued reinvestment of principal payments.

Is it enough to keep stocks up?  I don't know.  But it is continued monetization.

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:00 | 1348835 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Sorry, old news and not enough to replace POMO.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:09 | 1348856 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I have no idea how much it is or what it includes.  As far as I can tell it is a smokescreen for endless indeterminate QE.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:00 | 1348842 Troublehoff
Troublehoff's picture

I'd have laughed my tits off if after all that waffle, at the end of the speech, he'd have just come out and said:

Oh yeah, and we're doing QE3 - 2 Trill from your daddy, the Bernank! peace out

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:12 | 1348870 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

ZOI.

 

Zone of Inaction, bitchez.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:14 | 1348882 WizDumb
WizDumb's picture

IMPENDING BILDERBERG MEETING...
EVENTS TO FOLLOW...

 

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:38 | 1348950 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

As equities and commodities sell off, where does the money go? Into bonds, and more specifically into US Treasuries. Sorry but it is what it is. The stealth QE is on the part of the banks (brother can you spare I dime, cause I ain't got no mo Pomo) buying treasuries with every bond manager and his uncle piggybacking. It will be the "No QE" QE, which is rather impressive if you think about it. And as the SPX heads back to 1050, more time is bought, cans are kicked down the long deleveraging road. Corporate balance sheets can withstand the deluge. Zero interest rates will assuage the fall in asset prices. With truth and foodstamps for all, we head down the merry path of salary convergence with Asia. Middle Class? We don't need no stinking middle class ...

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:49 | 1348994 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Is the FED status quo? Or is the FED going to tighten? Short term notes seem to be (LOOSE)

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:55 | 1349035 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Get ready for the Government seizure of 401k's and IRA's. It's your fault anyway. You should have bought more useless Chinese trinkets from Wal-Mart for your yard-sale.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:58 | 1349036 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Get ready for the Government seizure of 401k's and IRA's. It's your fault anyway. You should have bought more useless Chinese trinkets from Wal-Mart for your yard-sale.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 19:59 | 1349038 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Get ready for the Government seizure of 401k's and IRA's. It's your fault anyway. You should have bought more useless Chinese trinkets from Wal-Mart for your yard-sale.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:11 | 1349080 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

I've seen deer in my headlights that were also in the "no-action zone".

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:46 | 1349162 tslv50
tslv50's picture

Yeah in the asian sense of "fighting without fighting" Bernanke promises QE without QE. Effortless QE, it simply prints itself!

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 20:47 | 1349163 chump666
chump666's picture

QE3 will happen, but you'll need an over 20% stock correction.  The FED will attempt to bid the USD up, keep China happy.  As Faber says, and he is 100% correct, Bernanke is a S&P500 watcher (he gauges stocks prices)...and of course money printer.

Major correction ahead now.  Hedge funds will devour dow/s&p500, risk trades for 3mths or so. 

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 03:43 | 1349836 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

spot on

+8.6

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 03:51 | 1349844 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

And that QE3 will help for a month or two or three - before the lights go out.

This whole drama is not a matter of liquidity - this whole drama is a matter of where the factories and jobs are (gone).

No way for them to come back before Euro and Dollar are sooo cheap that these factories and jobs come back.

Increasing debt or austerity measures will make things just worse.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 21:22 | 1349255 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I think there'll be a correction after QE 2 in stocks as anticipated here at ZH. I think there'll be a dip in gold, too, and it will be a good buying opportunity. If gold dips 20%, that's OK for me too.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 03:48 | 1349839 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

yes - and if 2010 and 2009 are a guide - then buyback around late July.

Tue, 06/07/2011 - 22:03 | 1349389 zen0
zen0's picture

zone of inaction = panic disguised as calm.

 

Stiff upper lip, etc.

 

I fear the Abyss beckons.....come hither, and see.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 03:45 | 1349835 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

QE3 not before fall. And once it comes everything will be a lot lower. So get out of Indexes, commodities and dollar shorts as long as you can. Those not respecting the charts and drying up liquidity (see GSR) will get a religious experience.

April 29/ May 2 was the peak and will remain that way for months - maybe even for years. Draw the lines. Draw trend channels - it's everything there, for everybody to see.

Get the hell out of dodge.
As soon it will be too late.

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 04:43 | 1349896 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

Golddigger Sucks can say what it wants. It's safer to believe in the tooth fairy rather than them.

And as for the Fed. They are damned if they do QE3 or damned if they don't.

The only problem is that the people have already been damned by them

Wed, 06/08/2011 - 04:53 | 1349906 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

Share prices are MOPE.

In a market with more liquidity like what Greenspan and Bernanke provided the PE ratio gets skewed. In a bear market it returns to normal.  I guess if they had their way the PE would be 50 times , similar to the banking leverages being observed now and permitted by the so called authorities who use tax payers money to bail out the banks.

Trading in the markets is a no win situation with HFT and the systemes being used as unfair advantage. It has become a mugs game.

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