And Now, The Commodity Snapback

Tyler Durden's picture

Earlier we predicted that following the carbon copy replica of last week's two day crash the likely outcome is another follow through surge to the upside, which will likely be tempered with another barrage of margin hikes to punish speculators daring to not put their money in massively overvalued stocks. Sure enough, the first part of the prediction comes true (see chart below), as the most recent overnight wipeout in gold, silver and crude is now a distant memory. Next stop for WTI: $100. As for what time today's margin hike will come, just keep hitting F5 on the CME Advisory Notices page.

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hugovanderbubble's picture

They need to keep the market up till next friday...


DXY index failing to maintain its breach above the 50dmva has SPX trading at the highs of the day currently, reversing an earlier 75bp retreat. Internal flows better to buy with sellers concentrating on high short interest names, High beta and 1q outperformers. YtD laggards are outperforming the broader tape today at the expense of YtD outperformers. Utilities, Staples & Discretionary leading, suggesting the risk-on trade continues to be out of vogue, albeit copper and crude having made a valiant comeback from this mornings lows. Hf's are back buying/covering today with LOs net sellers.

Retailing: TGT, KSS outperforming along with household product names. SYY seeing HF buying as commodity costs ease.

Energy: Volumes 15% above the norm, we have seen LO's unloading refiners.

Financials: cont to underperform on global growth & sovereign risk concerns.

Healthcare: Seeing modest profit taking in pharma post DRG index wrestling with 52wk highs. Seeing buying of AET on HMO weakness.

Materials: Short covering in the sector as copper rebounds, fertiliser remains under pressure following yda's WADE data.

Tech: Outperforming despite CSCO woes, SOX putting in a good performance following strength in Taiwan tech names overnight. Chatter around of supply chain shortages. TSM supply chain in the green (NVDA, BRCM, QCOM, MRVL, AVGO, ADI, ALTR). Cisco being viewed at Co specific.

source and special thanks to:Citi


Fiat2Zero's picture

Why is Friday so important per se?  So we can close out the week with the USD #winning?

Sudden Debt's picture

Happy hour nationwide.


Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Commodity smack down can happen tomorrow, (Friday the 13th) to appear as though, the politicians made it happen by grilling the oil CEO's. Kabuki theater of course. BUT..... it will be a practical joke on us.


Fiat2Zero's picture

Black Friday.  Fucking brilliant!  Can I work the mouth of the Bernanke sock puppet?

Quinvarius's picture

I think they know they did enough damage with the CME margin changes and dollar prop job.  There is no doubt in my mind they are now giving emergency loans out to the hedgies and banks they blew up to avoid counter party risk issues.  They learned very quickly that you cannot isolate and target liquidity one market.

rocker's picture

Emergency loans. LMAO.  They will monetize all their loses.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

comedic commodity smack down

kabuki the 13th


Harr Tuttle's picture

Please, keep the sale going, the truck isn't fully loaded yet. Crush it tomorrow, I dare ya!

Hugh G Rection's picture

0 leverage bitchezzz.


Quit putting it on sale when I'm passed out pricks.

Cruel Aid's picture

By that you must mean you BTFD.

There is the Granny indicator (Buy SLV @ peak) and the Financial Talking Head indicator (Dollar gonna Rally).

mayhem_korner's picture

I'm making a market on margin hikes.

augie's picture

I've been playing a game since tuesday. If there is a margin hike, I smoke an L. I've been high since tuesday.

kushmere's picture

I hope you got a big stash. Tommy Chong probably couldn't keep the pace of this game.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture


Funniest excuse to get high I've ever heard. Where I come from waking up is the only excuse you ever need. :>)

augie's picture

That is absolutely terrifying.

Global Hunter's picture

That's all I need, I'm in, off for a walk in the woods shortly

Strider52's picture

Global, you're a bit of alright! All you need is some beers in a backpack, a happy dog, and make sure you bring water for the dog. I take my Golden Retriever out hiking in the woods all the time, did it last night. next month: Big Sur!!

MisterMousePotato's picture

I know you can't judge a book by its cover, but really, that does, in fact, look unhealthy.

baby_BLYTHE's picture

that is some beautiful looking bud.

the only silver I ever unloaded was in a trade for half-bag Aurora Indica.

Stuff floors me for hours :-)

augie's picture

that is a true underground economy. silver for herb, lol the pirates heart lives on.

DavidPierre's picture


Like they say...

You can't smoke it!


fockewulf190's picture

Reckon the trade in the near future is going to be 1 oz. cheeba for 1 oz. silba.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It actually looks like an alien plant monster out of the original "Star Trek".

It appears to be holding so much THC that it's high on itself. :>)

DavidPierre's picture

So good you can just put your nose up close to your monitor and...

'scratch and sniff'

The local growers here about have taken to using bears as guards.



Harr Tuttle's picture

First the silver bears,
Now the weed bears

onesoul's picture

You might need some grass!

Silver has been holding just below 35.5 since 1:40pm to 2:10pm, now moving down. I guess some desks are front running on some rule change already.

Or that simply they will need to pump and dump intraday to create condition for margin hike.

Hugh G Rection's picture

My mother hiked my margins once.... Once

Eric Cartman's picture

LOL! Best comment on this thread. 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Real (Wall Street) men prefer unfiltered. :>)

I'll never forget the day decades ago when my dad and I walked into the store and he asked for a pack of Camels. The lady handed him the 'new" filtered Camel's. My dad looked at her like she had just challenged his manhood.....because in his mind she had.

PaperBear's picture

The rothchilds have stolen so much wealth.
How does it feel, people, to taking that wealth ?

LRC Fan's picture

I'm praying for a margin hike or two me some USO putzzzz bitchezzzz

I did it by Occident's picture

Yeah, I got a few out-of-money puts which are working out nicely.  Thanks CME tards! 

Gives me more ammo on the flip side to double down on silver when it is cheap.

Triple A's picture

rollercoasters suck, but they sure are fun when their over.


augie's picture

I'm slightly less than hopeful for the rollar coaster corrolation to hold in the end.

Putty's picture

In the past 24 hours, silver spot price hit a high of 35.8975 and a low of 32.3125.  Now back to 35.32.  Crazy times.

Whalley World's picture

Dennis Gartman just on Business News Network (BNN) said CME was correct to raise margin limits on Silver as they did.  He knows various members and knows that they are doing their best to maintain orderly markets.

Why does anybody pay for let alone listen to this Bozo?

Bay of Pigs's picture

I emailed that asshole years ago when he said gold would "never trade above 500 Euro's" (currently 1050). He tried to deny it, but I had the goods on him. He is a lying POS. 

He has no idea about where silver is going. Gold either.

Sudden Debt's picture

Margin hikes work untill they don't.

I wonder how long it will take them to realize that 80's trick don't work against a global attack from the speculators :)

Like they always said: PUT AT LEAST 5% OF YOU FINANCE IN PM'S!

That is possible when you count the 100X hedged silver as real.

but if everybody takes delivery... that makes PM's to go up X100


Bam_Man's picture

Another fine example of "price stability" - brought to you compliments of the Federal Reserve and Uncle Ben Shalom.

Devore's picture

Just means margins need to be hiked more.

hambone's picture

Indulge me -

Fed will finish up QE2 w/ approx. $90B flips in May and $100B in June? 

But Treasury is goin to be constrained on issuance due to debt ceiling?

What will Fed be buying up then?  Will they clean out the PD's and leave them Treasury free?  Continued buying w/ constricted supply...shouldn't that push yield down over the next couple of months? 

And then, a Debt ceiling approval plus absence of QE3 would seem to make for one hell of a snap back from potentially sub 3% 10yr in the next month to 4%+++ by July???

Is this what Gross and Rogers are implying?