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And Now, The Commodity Snapback

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier we predicted that following the carbon copy replica of last week's two day crash the likely outcome is another follow through surge to the upside, which will likely be tempered with another barrage of margin hikes to punish speculators daring to not put their money in massively overvalued stocks. Sure enough, the first part of the prediction comes true (see chart below), as the most recent overnight wipeout in gold, silver and crude is now a distant memory. Next stop for WTI: $100. As for what time today's margin hike will come, just keep hitting F5 on the CME Advisory Notices page.

 

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Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:47 | 1268583 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

They need to keep the market up till next friday...

 

DXY index failing to maintain its breach above the 50dmva has SPX trading at the highs of the day currently, reversing an earlier 75bp retreat. Internal flows better to buy with sellers concentrating on high short interest names, High beta and 1q outperformers. YtD laggards are outperforming the broader tape today at the expense of YtD outperformers. Utilities, Staples & Discretionary leading, suggesting the risk-on trade continues to be out of vogue, albeit copper and crude having made a valiant comeback from this mornings lows. Hf's are back buying/covering today with LOs net sellers.

Retailing: TGT, KSS outperforming along with household product names. SYY seeing HF buying as commodity costs ease.

Energy: Volumes 15% above the norm, we have seen LO's unloading refiners.

Financials: cont to underperform on global growth & sovereign risk concerns.

Healthcare: Seeing modest profit taking in pharma post DRG index wrestling with 52wk highs. Seeing buying of AET on HMO weakness.

Materials: Short covering in the sector as copper rebounds, fertiliser remains under pressure following yda's WADE data.

Tech: Outperforming despite CSCO woes, SOX putting in a good performance following strength in Taiwan tech names overnight. Chatter around of supply chain shortages. TSM supply chain in the green (NVDA, BRCM, QCOM, MRVL, AVGO, ADI, ALTR). Cisco being viewed at Co specific.

source and special thanks to:Citi

 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:13 | 1268698 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Why is Friday so important per se?  So we can close out the week with the USD #winning?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:14 | 1268718 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Happy hour nationwide.

 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:19 | 1268728 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Commodity smack down can happen tomorrow, (Friday the 13th) to appear as though, the politicians made it happen by grilling the oil CEO's. Kabuki theater of course. BUT..... it will be a practical joke on us.

   

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:28 | 1268791 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Black Friday.  Fucking brilliant!  Can I work the mouth of the Bernanke sock puppet?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:29 | 1268803 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I think they know they did enough damage with the CME margin changes and dollar prop job.  There is no doubt in my mind they are now giving emergency loans out to the hedgies and banks they blew up to avoid counter party risk issues.  They learned very quickly that you cannot isolate and target liquidity one market.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:59 | 1268934 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Blowback Bitchez!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 23:00 | 1270628 rocker
rocker's picture

Emergency loans. LMAO.  They will monetize all their loses.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:29 | 1268806 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

comedic commodity smack down

kabuki the 13th

BiCHeZ

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 18:07 | 1269794 Harr Tuttle
Harr Tuttle's picture

Please, keep the sale going, the truck isn't fully loaded yet. Crush it tomorrow, I dare ya!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:25 | 1268777 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

0 leverage bitchezzz.

 

Quit putting it on sale when I'm passed out pricks.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:48 | 1268590 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Winning.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:55 | 1268622 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

By that you must mean you BTFD.

There is the Granny indicator (Buy SLV @ peak) and the Financial Talking Head indicator (Dollar gonna Rally).

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:47 | 1268597 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

I'm making a market on margin hikes.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:58 | 1268652 augie
augie's picture

I've been playing a game since tuesday. If there is a margin hike, I smoke an L. I've been high since tuesday.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:09 | 1268685 kushmere
kushmere's picture

I hope you got a big stash. Tommy Chong probably couldn't keep the pace of this game.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:14 | 1268717 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

Funniest excuse to get high I've ever heard. Where I come from waking up is the only excuse you ever need. :>)

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:41 | 1268853 augie
augie's picture

That is absolutely terrifying.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:48 | 1268907 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

That's all I need, I'm in, off for a walk in the woods shortly

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 16:45 | 1269461 Strider52
Strider52's picture

Global, you're a bit of alright! All you need is some beers in a backpack, a happy dog, and make sure you bring water for the dog. I take my Golden Retriever out hiking in the woods all the time, did it last night. next month: Big Sur!!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 01:40 | 1270894 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

I know you can't judge a book by its cover, but really, that does, in fact, look unhealthy.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:02 | 1268965 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

that is some beautiful looking bud.

the only silver I ever unloaded was in a trade for half-bag Aurora Indica.

Stuff floors me for hours :-)

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:26 | 1269072 augie
augie's picture

that is a true underground economy. silver for herb, lol the pirates heart lives on.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:27 | 1269079 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

For Silver...eh!

Like they say...

You can't smoke it!

 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:54 | 1269226 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Reckon the trade in the near future is going to be 1 oz. cheeba for 1 oz. silba.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:27 | 1269080 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It actually looks like an alien plant monster out of the original "Star Trek".

It appears to be holding so much THC that it's high on itself. :>)

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:38 | 1269125 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

So good you can just put your nose up close to your monitor and...

'scratch and sniff'

The local growers here about have taken to using bears as guards.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11020965

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1337/1370979064_13f5e7ca22.jpg

 

 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 18:13 | 1269816 Harr Tuttle
Harr Tuttle's picture

First the silver bears,
Now the weed bears

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:22 | 1268753 onesoul
onesoul's picture

You might need some grass!

Silver has been holding just below 35.5 since 1:40pm to 2:10pm, now moving down. I guess some desks are front running on some rule change already.

Or that simply they will need to pump and dump intraday to create condition for margin hike.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:43 | 1268873 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

My mother hiked my margins once.... Once

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:05 | 1268971 augie
augie's picture

settle down francis.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 18:22 | 1269846 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

LOL! Best comment on this thread. 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:47 | 1268598 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I love POMO's.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:05 | 1268668 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Filtered or unfiltered?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:21 | 1268730 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Real (Wall Street) men prefer unfiltered. :>)

I'll never forget the day decades ago when my dad and I walked into the store and he asked for a pack of Camels. The lady handed him the 'new" filtered Camel's. My dad looked at her like she had just challenged his manhood.....because in his mind she had.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:51 | 1268603 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

The rothchilds have stolen so much wealth.
How does it feel, people, to taking that wealth ?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:52 | 1268608 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Slingshot B!tchez

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:52 | 1268609 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

I'm praying for a margin hike or two tonight...got me some USO putzzzz bitchezzzz

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 16:59 | 1269497 I did it by Occident
I did it by Occident's picture

Yeah, I got a few out-of-money puts which are working out nicely.  Thanks CME tards! 

Gives me more ammo on the flip side to double down on silver when it is cheap.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:53 | 1268612 Triple A
Triple A's picture

rollercoasters suck, but they sure are fun when their over.

 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:35 | 1268823 augie
augie's picture

I'm slightly less than hopeful for the rollar coaster corrolation to hold in the end.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:53 | 1268615 Putty
Putty's picture

In the past 24 hours, silver spot price hit a high of 35.8975 and a low of 32.3125.  Now back to 35.32.  Crazy times.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:19 | 1268725 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

Dennis Gartman just on Business News Network (BNN) said CME was correct to raise margin limits on Silver as they did.  He knows various members and knows that they are doing their best to maintain orderly markets.

Why does anybody pay for let alone listen to this Bozo?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:36 | 1268843 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I emailed that asshole years ago when he said gold would "never trade above 500 Euro's" (currently 1050). He tried to deny it, but I had the goods on him. He is a lying POS. 

He has no idea about where silver is going. Gold either.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:14 | 1269026 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

 BOP,

I like your style!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:19 | 1268739 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Margin hikes work untill they don't.

I wonder how long it will take them to realize that 80's trick don't work against a global attack from the speculators :)

Like they always said: PUT AT LEAST 5% OF YOU FINANCE IN PM'S!

That is possible when you count the 100X hedged silver as real.

but if everybody takes delivery... that makes PM's to go up X100

NERO'S IN THE HOUSE BITCHEZ!!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:24 | 1268749 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Another fine example of "price stability" - brought to you compliments of the Federal Reserve and Uncle Ben Shalom.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:59 | 1268932 Devore
Devore's picture

Just means margins need to be hiked more.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:18 | 1268618 hambone
hambone's picture

Indulge me -

Fed will finish up QE2 w/ approx. $90B flips in May and $100B in June? 

But Treasury is goin to be constrained on issuance due to debt ceiling?

What will Fed be buying up then?  Will they clean out the PD's and leave them Treasury free?  Continued buying w/ constricted supply...shouldn't that push yield down over the next couple of months? 

And then, a Debt ceiling approval plus absence of QE3 would seem to make for one hell of a snap back from potentially sub 3% 10yr in the next month to 4%+++ by July???

Is this what Gross and Rogers are implying?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:55 | 1268623 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

someone bot a 1mil+ block of TBT

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:54 | 1268634 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Someone sold a 1MN block of TBT:)

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:55 | 1268624 gkm
gkm's picture

TD's copying my posts.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:25 | 1268758 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

You should tell your mom.

 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:34 | 1268827 augie
augie's picture

Post of the Day.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:53 | 1268628 drink or die
drink or die's picture

I was looking at the price of crude over the past 5 days.  Is a 5% swing on every single day normal?  Seems like it wouldn't be...

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:56 | 1268648 kushmere
kushmere's picture

Everything about this "market" is abnormal. This is part of the inherient instability that occurs when nations transition from Free Market Capitalism to Planned Economy.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:02 | 1268656 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

US banksters turning to radical socialism?:) Thats called Freedom¡

 

Us Bailouts = aspirire for a Cancer called Debt (MuniBondss) and Real Estate Prices (still high)

Deleverage and Recap in financials hasnt finished yet.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:22 | 1268738 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

<i>Is a 5% swing on every single day normal?</i>

This is your "price stability", compliments of the Federal Reserve.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:02 | 1268643 greyghost
greyghost's picture

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:57 | 1268647 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Just another short squ(ee)ze. I'm sittin tight my levels are in place. I'll trade smalls off my bigs.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:57 | 1268649 falak pema
falak pema's picture

roller coaster time all through up till QE ends...then the fun begins.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:02 | 1268661 hugovanderbubble
Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:02 | 1268658 tickhound
tickhound's picture

shhh!  Pisani is about to tell me what the important thing is...

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:28 | 1268800 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"The important thing is, there's a general consensus that everything we're seeing is in line with expectations."

Amirite?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:54 | 1268916 tickhound
tickhound's picture

haha... Bob?  That you?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:10 | 1268995 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

No, but I can't escape hearing his repetitious delivery in my head.

"For more, visit Trader Talk at CNBS.com. How's things over at the Nasdaq..."

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:02 | 1268659 Smartie37
Smartie37's picture

Crazy thing - Every time they squeeze the balloon, then let go, the air moves back where it was !

(until the balloon pops)

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:21 | 1268751 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

These margin hikes on commodities are about as effective as placing orange traffic cones in front of steamrollers.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:38 | 1268844 augie
augie's picture

"Mr. Dent, Do you have any idea how much damage this bulldozer would suffer if i was to allow it to roll over you? None-at-all."

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:05 | 1268669 razorthin
razorthin's picture

This is all QEn prep-work.  Relax.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:05 | 1268670 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

How much time do they need to release???

Counter started!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:06 | 1268674 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

WTI staring down 100 yet again.

Each margin hike is adding a dose of Flubber to the bounce back.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:04 | 1268675 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Where's momofaded? I want to hear some more about genius Bernanke and his sure-fire inflation control mechanism.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:10 | 1268694 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Momofader May 12 2011- 'Gas will be down to $2.50 within a month'...OMFG! :D

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:17 | 1268719 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The RainbowTrader just released his new line of consumer products, his flagship t-shirt is the 'I "heart' The Bernank' available in pocket T, babydoll nightie or black hoodie.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:18 | 1268733 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

I'm sure he has the whitest teeth the Bernank ever came across

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:54 | 1268923 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

What if momofaded, rainbow, and Meth are all the same guy.  What if that guy is The Bernanke?

 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:07 | 1268677 user2011
user2011's picture

Gotta love this article.  Straight to the point, "manipulations trying to boost stock market by killing forex and future markets."

 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:17 | 1268721 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

You can't kill F/X. You however, can kill a currency. There are 2 sides to a trade (always)!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:09 | 1268683 razorthin
razorthin's picture

If Silver closes within the body of yesterday's candle, then what you have is a bullish pierceing, which makes a breakout back through the 50 DMA likely - possibly even the 25 DMA.  This is one of the most critical closes you will ever see.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:11 | 1268689 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

I wouldn't put too much faith in the technicals given the distortion of the margin hikes.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:10 | 1268695 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Funny thing about technicals - at least some of the time - is that they often indicate an impending unanticipated event.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:29 | 1268780 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

But if you can't tell me what that event is (other than in hindsight)...

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:31 | 1268813 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

And they allow Blythe to paint the tape, anticipating the unanticipatable.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:36 | 1268846 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

these set-ups for the bullish piercing are wondrous, indeed!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:11 | 1268690 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

In other news. Facebook launches goldman cia type operation against google.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-05-12/facebook-buste...

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:11 | 1268691 Muir
Muir's picture

Mustn't go that way! Mustn't hurt the Precious! 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:09 | 1268692 Korrath
Korrath's picture

Well, at least things are getting better in the ME!  Which means gas prices will head back down again, no doubt...

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/13/world/middleeast/13egypt.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

 

...well, shit.

 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:12 | 1268705 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hooray! Helmets and billy clubs, and certainly cheap gas Im sure!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:14 | 1268702 Pepe
Pepe's picture

Puss in boots vs Pinocchio

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:15 | 1268706 Gyro Gearloose
Gyro Gearloose's picture

Any opinions on todays disconnect between silver spot and AGQ & ZSL being both down?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:26 | 1268767 Gyro Gearloose
Gyro Gearloose's picture

Example:  2:16 pm   spot = . -17% ....ZSL-6.50%  ....AGQ -3.98%     Was much worse earlier.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:44 | 1268862 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

We will have to see where they settle, but to me it means I am all cash. Something is broken and I will not play today.  This is the first time since the flash crash I've seen a leveraged long and leveraged short both down SO MUCH.  Couple that thought with the fact that SLV is basically flat at time of this writing, and both ZSL and AGQ being down like this is inexplicable.  Unfortunately I am in the crowd of undeserving people who won't know what happened until it is too late to trade on it.  So, I'm out for today.  Screw it. 

If you hear anything, please let me know.  I just checked Turd's blog and there's nothing on it there at this time.   

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:17 | 1268716 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Buy!...... wait, no, SELL! .......wait.........wtf

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:18 | 1268732 Korrath
Korrath's picture

I'm laughing because that was literally what I was thinking all day today.  

 

This market would be comedy gold...if I wasn't trying to actually make any money.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:26 | 1268765 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

I feel your pain!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:15 | 1268720 Diatribe
Diatribe's picture

Too many FDs.  Running out of powder

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:19 | 1268726 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Margin Hikes == Display of Impotence.

Bernanke needs to play the ace up his sleeve soon...

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:19 | 1268741 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Margin hikes, last acts of desperation.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:29 | 1268802 Construct
Construct's picture

Over the 'long term' 'they' will lose control over silver like they have gold.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:20 | 1268746 Predator
Predator's picture

Is snapback the new code name for dead cat bounce?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:09 | 1268987 UGrev
UGrev's picture

No. The new phrase is "Pulling a Calvin". :D

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:24 | 1268752 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

I wanna say there's some good 'ole time volatility but,,,,,NOT.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:24 | 1268755 campag
campag's picture

thought someone clever would bring up Glencore and their IPO. Can someone tie this in with the madness in commodities ? I hear they used 23 Banks as advisers etc to help with the float. That is every bank bar GS - the idea being none of the banks could critise the float as they would loose their fee? Crooked or clever? 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:22 | 1268760 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

That rubber dollar between all things physical and all things paper is starting to oscillate.  How long before it snaps?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:25 | 1268773 kushmere
kushmere's picture

The Stock Markets are doing so well, You'd almost think we were in a booming recovery.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:29 | 1268781 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Exxon says oil barrel should be in $60-$70 range

always behind the curve, inspiring confidence.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:26 | 1268782 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

The Edict on Maximum Prices (also known as the Edict on Prices or the Edict of Diocletian; in Latin Edictum De Pretiis Rerum Venalium) was issued in 301 by Roman Emperor Diocletian.

 

Expecting Obama to go "Full Diocletian Retard" and issue the death penalty for speculators (it's been tried before...)

 

Spectacular price control failure is coming.  Get yer protective neck gear in place boyz.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:39 | 1268860 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"Full Diocletian Retard"

Now that's comedy gold.

Surely, Obummer's been told to never go Full Diocletian Retard. Then again, maybe not, as everyone might think he should've already known.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:27 | 1268785 Silver Shield
Silver Shield's picture

In 6 days, JP Morgue has 41% More Physical Silver...

http://dont-tread-on.me/in-6-days-jp-morgue-has-41-more-physical-silver/

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:47 | 1268880 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

+1 Nice article Silver Shield.  631,000 ounces is only 126 contracts.  Blythe better start pedaling a little fucking faster.

As far as being hypocrites, they're just playing the game well (I detest them too, but you have to give credit where it's due).  If you have to buy a lot of physical, you don't want to telegraph your move to the hoi polloi.  Better to do a head fake or two.  My favorite head fake so far was Soros' WSJ leaked rumor that he was dumping gold because he didn't fear DEFLATION.  Talk about a head fake that made the lemmings completely confused.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:02 | 1268953 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

falling in to the banksters and fraudsters reality trap

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:14 | 1269027 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, you know Soros' investing mantra is, "identify the false trend and bet against it."

I take it he's figured out it's easier to create them instead of trying to identify others.

Vertical integration, FTW!

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:38 | 1269127 rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/nymex-daily-reports.html

 

Go to silver stocks.  How the hell does JP Morgan have more silver.  IT makes no sense.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:28 | 1268792 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Ah, it's only paper my friends....

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:32 | 1268805 Rynak
Rynak's picture

They will not be able to keep this thing under 35$ for longer than one... at most two months, unless they outrightly ban trade for certain parties. All they are doing is buying time, so that they can get to work themselves.... that, or they do not want to accept it, and will fight until the exchange is destroyed.

 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:33 | 1268811 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Well, if jp morgue is up 41% physical as another post indicates, that may explain a few things

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:38 | 1268832 Rynak
Rynak's picture

If that is the case, then here we have the INVERSE of the hunt brothers case..... the regulators stepping in not to prevent cornering of a market, but instead to HELP cornering the market.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:58 | 1268945 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Yeah the big difference there is you had one buyers and an infinite number of sellers.  Here we have lots of buyers and they don't read ZH or bang the kitco URL constantly (hint: they speak Mandarin).

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:17 | 1269042 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

But doesn't Comex accept SLV shares as "physical" now?

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:34 | 1268812 blazen
blazen's picture

It's all being done to force you into bonds. Learn how to read MSM: "investors show no interest in risk assets", "commodities pullback on strong dollar". They need money flows into bonds. You, damn speculator, are not allowed to borrow money at ~ 0%, and bet with leverage on something that has any value (commodities).

A few more margin hikes and there will be no ammos left.

And once bond market is crashed, rates start to rise dramatically and this will ignite hyperinflation.

And one beautiful night we'll get currency devaluation, it can be the day/night when US$ stops to be the reserve currency. So even if you go to bed proud of yourself how much fiat you've made on latest futures trade, it will catch you with your pants down and sitting on lots of (nearly) worthless paper.

I'm changing my PM strategy from BTFD to BTFWYC (phyzz, whenever you can).

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:10 | 1269008 firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

Interesting points about the bond market and inflation.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:34 | 1268815 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

I reject the Banksters reality and substitute my own. Ah, all better.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:37 | 1268831 blazen
blazen's picture

Yep Morgue, Deutsche (and some others, can't recall) stood for delivery of lots of Platinum futures. They know exactly what's going on

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 14:38 | 1268841 silver140
silver140's picture

What happened Wed. and this morning. Continuation of market manipulation by bullion banks. From Ed Casey, The Wrap.  Link after quotes. Go to bottom of page if you want to read the article.

"I must admit that the Thursday trading day has not started off well.  But it should be obvious to anyone that what we're seeing here is not free markets in action...and as Chris Powell saysad nauseam..."There are no markets anymore, only interventions.,,,,,Like I've said on many occasions, the bullion banks may use a smash-down in gold to drive silver lower...but that's only partly true at the moment, as gold hasn't suffered anywhere near the same fate as silver.  But as I said above [for the umpteenth time] silver is the only metal that matters to JPMorgan at the moment.,,,All was pretty normal looking in the gold and silver market up until shortly before 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time.  Then the New York bullion banks showed up in the Globex market and pulled their bids in both metals in the thinly-traded market just before the London open.  You will note that the silver price is their main objective...as it's already down a bit more than 4% as I write this.  I'd guess that along with the bid-pulling, there's some shorting go on as well."

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home#subnode-section-in_short

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:06 | 1268986 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I caused it. I called a top in everything this morning

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:19 | 1269049 hambone
hambone's picture

Peak energy ---> Peak debt ---> PEAK Troll (top/bottom/bullshit) calls...

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 16:31 | 1269399 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Hehehe.

I still think risk off is the new risk on.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:26 | 1269065 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

And........here it goes back down........

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:24 | 1269068 gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

unnnnnnwinnnnndd

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:32 | 1269098 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

So to conclude:

Economic numbers all sucked this morning. Particularly the claims numbers (paging janet yellen and the 3m jobs she promised QE3 would bring).

The 30 year auction was the worst in recent memory.

EIA cut the global oil demand this morning.

And Fukushima is a worse Nuclear disaster than Chernobyl (ot:Tokyo offices set at 82F this summer, ac only ABOVE this level.....long deodorant)

Yet markets up across the board. WHY?

 

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:40 | 1269117 JJSF
JJSF's picture

Remember when all the margin increases didnt work on the Hunt Brothers the overlords just made all silver buy orders illegal. Could sell..but not buy...  So the CME can basically decide where they would like the price to be and so it will be.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 15:45 | 1269129 Math Man
Math Man's picture

The commodities sell off is just starting... 

What do you do if one of those supposed 'hedge' funds loses 20% of your money on a 5% pull back in the commodities market?  You don't even call, you just send a redemption request.  You don't bother to listen to some bullshit excuse about 5 standard deviation moves.  They fucked up.  They didn't hedge, and their risk management was shit.

Between unwinds from redemptions and reduced leverage from higher margin requirements, the complex is moving much lower over the next few months.  You heard it here first.

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 03:17 | 1270970 jomama
jomama's picture

lmfao! 

you're too fucking much dude. 

woe to anyone taking you seriously.

you must really get a kick out of fucking with people... 

sadistic much?

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