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And Now For Today's Mini Silver Flash Crash: Same Time, Same Place

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just like yesterday and the day before, 6:30pm is now the official precious metal "bang the afterhours" launch time. As we predicted minutes ago, silver just got taken to the cleaners on what is now an apparent attempt to push silver around in the no volume part of after hours trading, in the 6-7 pm no man's land. We expect an imminent rebound after this latest attempt to trigger stop losses, probably those around $40, fails. If it succeeds in pushing silver below $40 it is very possible that the metal can promptly trade down to the mid $30s as a result. And while banging the close has been investigated by the CFTC for years (resulting in some modest smacks on the wrist recently for the ex-Moore trader who did this with impunity), we are confident it won't be before 2015 that the CFTC's commissioners investigate this particularly odd behavior in silver and gold. By then it, of course, won't matter.

 

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Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:31 | 1236751 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Nice.

But seriously, he delivers "high end furniture" in the Chicago area, presumably his entire market consists of union leaders and corrupt politicians.  His family owns a print shop, and he's gonna make it big one of these days lemme tell ya, just need to get $50,000 together to open his hedge fund with some pals of his.  Shouldn't be that hard with all the "winners" he's been tossing out on ZH.  But for some reason, he's still driving a fucking truck.

As a person with numerous truckers and former truckers in and close to his family, let me tell you that the easiest way to tell when a trucker is lying about money is when his lips are moving.  If he was really trading all these winners, and really making as much as he claims, he should have well over 100K by now.  Yet he is still driving.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:50 | 1236807 trav7777
trav7777's picture

how can you still be showing your face around here, cliff, given the thousands of dollars you have cost gullible sheep who bought into your BUYBUYBUYBUY "Silver to $60 next week" calls when the RSI was 88?  You know, the can't miss trade that blew the fuck up in your face?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:10 | 1236849 akak
akak's picture

You are confusing "BUY BUY BUY" with "HOLD HOLD HOLD".

Which is not to be confused with Dangerclown's rabid call to "SELL SELL SELL".

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 00:22 | 1237013 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Show me where I said "BUYBUYBUY", smart guy.  Or where I said "$60 next week" as a call, rather than as commentary on the fast rate of the rise.

But hey, don't let what I actually said stand in the way of pursuit of your vendetta.  After all, hatred and rage are ends to themselves, and don't make you look like a bitter little bitch at ALL.

Also, If I lost people thousands over the last few days, then I made them millions over the last few years, so STFU, bitch.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 08:28 | 1237481 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you haven't made anybody millions, cliff.

Least of all yourself.  Losers like you NEVER get rich, because you are only right like a broken clock.  Now it's "oh I was just COMMENTING on the rate of rise."  Shameless, cliff, just shameless lying and prevaricating.  Now it's that you were never making price calls, you were just "observing" all along, huh?

I don't know how you can show your face around here as shamelessly as you've been pumping a bagholder trade like this.  There are probably people around here who are 1000s underwater due to listening to the silverbug bullshit telling them to buy at ANY price, trumpeting imaginary physical shortages, and calling for the imminent end of the world.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:16 | 1239719 akak
akak's picture

I get the feeling that you are somehow unhappy with tmosley.

What is the source of your animosity?  Because your arguments here are fundamentally baseless, and sound driven by bitter spite rather than logic.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:55 | 1236521 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

7.00 an hour paid fool. Questions is who is the employer?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:14 | 1236235 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

what is to be gained from crashing the silver market?  i can understand oil and nat/gas, but silver?  seems risky.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:45 | 1236624 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Lots of people have been selling Silver contracts for metal they do not have. The people that purchased those contracts want their metal. The people that sold contracts must now buy Silver on the market to deliver metal they never had to the people that are demanding their Silver. By crashing the market they can buy Silver and deliver it at reduced cost to themselves.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:49 | 1236972 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Only if they can find it.

It's much better that the "buyer" is made to believe that silver's only worth $5/oz 'cause "that's what it costs to dig out of the ground".  Then he doesn't bother asking for his physical that's now $30 or so (if JPM's ploy works).

If silver's worthless, nobody will want it (hopefully).  Then it won't matter if there ain't none.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 00:03 | 1236986 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

doppleganger

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 00:00 | 1236987 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

doppleganger

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 10:18 | 1237896 ZapBranigan
ZapBranigan's picture

Flash-crashing the market implants the desired mentality in weaker-hands that metals are extremely volatile, thus accomplishing the mission of fewer and fewer folks standing for delivery.  Simple.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:07 | 1236372 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

ahh, tis fella's like this arsehat that gives us Irishmen a bad name.......

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:26 | 1236446 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"$5 says the Smailes kid eats it."

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:39 | 1236606 jomama
jomama's picture

OMFG you posted this AGAIN?!!!!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:06 | 1236212 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

The problem with using machines to do your dirty work is three fold:

#1 There is a record

#2 It is gameable

#3 Professor Falken, do you want to play a game?

 

Given the average level of sophistication IT < - > Traders, you know what?

 

It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:46 | 1236318 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Hey that's mean. Don't you know that Secret Service people get a whole week of training in computer security. A whole week. Well minus the weekend of course. And well they come in late monday because they were doing blow from a farming operation. But these guys can do more in a week than most people can do in a whole month. So don't get cocky.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:46 | 1236959 SYantiss
SYantiss's picture

It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

 

+42

OMG...  A ZORK reference...   LOVED that game!!!   had all of them!   

 

I'm a little embarrased that this is my first response post.  

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:07 | 1236217 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

The way it is…

RANTING ANDY:

"THE ALL-TIME TRAIN DODGE"

Remember the movie "Stand By Me", where four boys take a journey into the country to find a dead body? I love movies that create lines, either purposefully or by chance, that remain immortalized by time. History can be doctored, and usually is ("survivor bias", anyone?), but literature is mankind’s true footprint.

After barely escaping death by running across a bridge with a locomotive right behind them, the boys term their experience "the all time train dodge", as in an experience which cannot ever be surpassed in its genre.

When I write my RANTS, they are spontaneously inspired by something that forms the basis of my thoughts and tells my fingers what to type.

And after what THE CARTEL pulled Sunday night, and frankly last week for that matter, nothing came into my head except superlatives regarding how far these monsters are going to protect the status quo, one in which they enrich themselves (power and wealth) at YOUR EXPENSE.

One in which 400 Americans account for 10% of all capital gains, although in that case I’d bet they’ve paid off enough people that they, like Google and General Electric, pay no taxes at all. One in which bankers destroy America, but get bailed out by the people and use those funds solely to continue destroying. And, of course, one in which the value of their paper dollars pushes closer and closer to their ultimate brink.

I have watched the financial markets every day for the past 20 years, tick for tick, and the Precious Metals for the past nine (Happy Anniversary, Andy!). As the prices of gold and silver have risen, and the dollar declined, the efforts by the Washington/Wall Street CARTEL to maintain said status quo have become exponentially more brazen, and obviously more illegal. Fortunately, the "dumbing down of America" by reality shows, video games, and cell phones has accelerated at an equal rate, enabling increasingly obvious acts of deceit and manipulation to become accepted and even sympathized with. It doesn't hurt that the average American is suffering so badly that they no longer care what goes on outside their four walls. In fact, all that concerns them is the level of entitlements they receive, such as food stamps (now used by 14% of all Americans – wonder why food inflation is soaring?) and Obamacare.

I don’t even see criticisms anymore from former champions of truth, such as Gretchen Morgensen of the NY Times, who apparently ended her quest for truth with the piddling issue of excessive CEO compensation.

Yes, we have some new champions, such as Max Keiser, "Tyler Durden" (of Zero Hedge), and Matt Taibbi of Rolling Stone, but for the most part we have turned into a nation of zombies. It is clear to me now how the U.S. has sunk so low, so fast, and although I’m praying for a renaissance of common sense, something tells me I’m not going to see it. History is, unfortunately, not on our side.

Despite plenty of coverage of such facts in the "shadow world" that I reside in, I’m sure that very few people realize the dollar index is within 1% of its all-time (supported countless times by official intervention) low, while the global commodity index is at an all-time high. Nor that REAL unemployment is three times the official figures, or REAL GDP NEGATIVE once you take out the ridiculous statistical fudging that has become the hallmark of tax-payer supported (make that printed money supported) government economic agencies. And I wonder how many people realize that gold, the most suppressed market on earth, reached yet another ALL-TIME high as recently as 20 HOURS AGO while silver did the same THREE BUSINESS DAYS AGO before the "all-time train dodge" of market manipulation was carried out by our friends on Wall Street and in Washington Sunday night.

For decades, the prices of gold and silver have been set in the PAPER futures markets run by big banks and regulated by sham organizations (paid off by big banks) such as the SEC and CFTC, which enable the Cartel to maintain its control over sentiment regarding inflation expectations and the value of the dollar.

Speculators are always stupid enough to challenge the JP Morgan’s of the world by buying PAPER gold and silver, particularly based on USELESS TECHNICAL CHARTS that are continuously used against them by said banks, whom are armed (by the government) with the ability to naked short as much PAPER gold, silver, and mining shares as they’d like, with absolutely no regulation or, thanks to the aforementioned departure of American brainpower, questioning.

Organizations like GATA have proven this activity repeatedly to the masses, but are still looked upon as pariahs, for those even looking at all. But alas, that’s another issue altogether.

Anyhow, the GOLD/SILVER CARTEL’s favorite game is sucking speculators in, particularly when USELESS TECHNICAL CHARTS tell them a "technical breakout" has occurred, and then ATTACKING THE PAPER MARKET at the most illiquid times of day, such as 3 am EST, 10 am EST (right after the P.M. Fix), and in the case of Sunday night, at the open of Asian trading despite the fact that most of Asia (particularly China) was closed for a holiday.

Margin increases are a tool that have been used to destroy gold and silver PAPER longs for decades, starting with the Hunt Brothers in 1980 (although then, they had to ALSO resort to a BAN ON ALL BUYING of silver on the offer). And it always works, particularly when such margin increases are set in concert with a planned paper raid that forces longs to sell, in order to meet increased margin calls. The fact that JP Morgan, the largest commodity short (silver) in HISTORY, was set to be hurt more by the margin increase than ANYONE was immaterial, as traders knew as soon as the first margin call was leaked to JP Morgan (er, announced) late Friday afternoon, as silver threatened to again break $50/oz, that JP Morgan would be immune from margin calls (they ARE the government) and that some type of major silver attack was imminent.

Silver hung in well late Friday afternoon despite that smash, closing at around $48/oz in the paper market (although prices in the REAL, PHYSICAL market were closer to $55+/oz, if you could find any supply). But little did market participants know what was planned for them on Sunday night, as China and Vietnam, two of the largest physical metal buyers on earth, were sleeping late for May Day.

At about 7 am in the Asian markets, with the only news of the weekend being that the head of the Bank of Japan stated that it needed to take "aggressive steps" (money-printing) to save the embattled Japanese economy, silver opened the day by falling $6, or 13%, in ELEVEN MINUTES. Even gold didn’t move much, and the dollar didn’t budge at all. That sent speculators in leveraged futures accounts scrambling to sell to meet margin calls, and the game was on.

Then the LIKELY BOGUS news that bin Laden was killed, coincidentally just as gold had closed Friday at an all-time high and the dollar inches from an all-time low, not to mention with Obama’s approval ratings at rock bottom and even the U.S. Treasury’s credit rating under attack. No body was produced, of course, of the most important terrorist in U.S. history. One, by the way, who was trained and funded by the U.S. military and intelligence agencies, but don’t I won’t go there. If you want to pursue this course of thinking, however, watch this link from Alex Jones; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srNG_Q7uN74).

Anyhow, obviously the bin Laden announcement was timed perfectly for the thin Sunday Asia market (no Chinese buyers, remember), and, per reporting from Zero Hedge, was accompanied by "massive" silver sell orders with no purpose other than to run stops and create an avalanche of margin call related paper selling when the COMEX opened on Monday morning. Unfortunately, this "bullish news for America" (give me a break) not only didn’t push the dollar up, but led to it continuing its fall to new lows, and by midday yesterday in NYSE trading, gold had surged nearly $10 to a new all-time high of $1,575/oz and silver had regained 90% of its losses.

This was very, very bad for the GOLD CARTEL, so late Monday afternoon they had the nerve to leak to JP Morgan (er, announce) yet ANOTHER silver margin increase, again accompanied by an immediate crash of $3/oz for silver in the LATE AFTERNOON, POST-COMEX CLOSE, THIN PAPER markets. Throw in a dose of naked shorting GLD, SLV, and of course their favorite whipping boys the major mining stocks, and once again you get silly "news coverage" that the PM bubble is popping.

Not to mention, as always, even many of the "good guys" turn traitor, confusing their minions with misdirection, often written in hindsight ("we saw this coming"). Moriarty, Morgan, and even "wonderboy" Ben Davies (where was he years ago, when gold and silver were much, much lower?) are quick to tell subscribers that big drops are upon us, citing USELESS, RIGGED CHARTS and rhetoric, and of course not once mentioning the MANIPULATION. Anyone that listens to them are going to lose money twice, once by selling here and again by buying at the next Cartel-induced top.

And before I end this RANT, special kudos to perhaps the dumbest of all the "gold commentary" that I read this week, from the Coffin Brothers, who say that mining stock multiples are set to contract because gold and silver no longer have the upside potential that they possessed in 2000. So in 2000, when perhaps 5-10 gold miners ON EARTH had earnings, multiples peaked, huh? Come back to me in a year or two, and we’ll see what kind of multiple the group trades at. Saying multiples for gold mining stocks have topped now (absent the MANIPULATION that seeks to paint that picture) is like saying that internet stock multiples were peaking back in 1995 because internet traffic was much higher than in 1990!

Much of this RANT was written to get out aggression, but the greater theme is to IGNORE THE TOP CALLERS, who will be wrong at an accelerating rate as gold and silver continue to soar in the months and years ahead.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:26 | 1236268 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i like rants.  that's how i got my start.  "wouldn't one break the bank with the paper" though?  how can any physcial owner/dealer ever even dream of "breaking a bank" without being totally crazy thinking it?  Now when someone says "GLD has the world's 7th largest gold reserves" that gets my attention.   From the SLV i would think it would have to amount in the tens of tons.  Where to store all that?  what bank?  what country?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:04 | 1236666 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Ranting is a fun, low cost diversion.

Fat free and zero calories.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:36 | 1236291 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I could not have said it any better. Awesome. +10

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:43 | 1236317 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

DavidPierre, thank you for posting the fantastic RANT!

The corruption and decline here in America is so OBVIOUS and heartbreaking.  It looks like indeed that Something Wicked This Way Comes.  The Cartel/Elite would best be looking for a hasty exit when this all blows up.

Gold and silver (and platinum) are a big part of the solution for us as individuals.

I cannot comment on the miners, other than that FOFOA prefers the GOLD itself as the mines could be taxed heavily or nationalized (anywhere).

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:48 | 1236510 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

DCRB--current crowd follows FDR quite well.  (many similar themes redux, not for here, maybe later).

"as the mines could be taxed heavily or nationalized (anywhere)."

and even in U.S.  Homestead and Dome did well through the '30s (granted without the Environmental Pollution Agency). e.g.:

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Gold_Investment_Articles/Gold_stocks_...

hoarding now, figure out what future market will be.  Why, that is a classic entrepreneure, n'est ce pas?

- Ned

{--> future endangered species}

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:59 | 1236361 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

+41.04 (current spot)

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:38 | 1236488 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

+47 Beautiful blow by blow commentary (not a rant)

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 08:45 | 1237539 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

I agree, this should have its own thread, Great stuff.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:13 | 1236555 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

DP.

THANK YOU!

You have built a firm foundation of facts that should ease the minds of everyone during this unprecedented storm.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:56 | 1236644 earnulf
earnulf's picture

Nice, very nice indeed.    One man's rant is another man's revelation.   Fine work.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:18 | 1236675 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

OT, but thanks for bringing that up about the relationship between domestic on-shelf food price inflation and the availability of food stamps and other government hand outs.  I have long speculated about the depth of this relationship, and I have often wondered aloud what percentage of Walmart's total sale are paid for directly by the government, via WIC, foodstamps, etc (basically, anything on an EBT card).  I wonder how much of Walmart's bottomline is a transfer directly from the government (esp federal) through the payment by taxpayer-funded "benefits."  I wonder what percentage of monthly foodstamp "benefits" goes directly to Walmart.  We know that 100% of it goes into the food-related realm, and that monthly is well over $6 BILLION.

Of course, whatever the exact number for Walmart, we know that it is price support, either for Walmart or Kroger or Safeway or Piggly Wiggly or whatever.  There are 40 million people (ie, customers) on food stamps.  Unlike McMansions and GM cars, a person must buy foodstuffs.  So what would happen to that price support if suddenly those 40 million people who (ostensibly) cannot afford food had their benefits cut?  Supermarkets and food resale have razor thin margins as it is with all 310 million Americans as potential customers.  Could they survive without adjusting their prices accordingly if 14% of their staple customers suddenly weren't shopping anymore? And also, we know that money is fungible, and so if food purchases were not being subsidized, the food people need would be purchased with discretionary funds (small as they may be), which includes funds used to purchase things like gasoline.  What happens to prices when a huge chunk of customers suddenly have their incomes cut?

I would love to see some research on this.  I'm quite sure that Walmart knows exactly what these numbers and break-points are, because many more than 13% of Walmart's customers are on food stamps/government assistance; indeed, Walmart foodstuff sales covered by SNAP or other programs are probably 50% or more in many parts of the country.  I have often thought, in fact, that Walmart choses to put stores in certain locations where that government-gauranteed income can be most easily tapped, but I have no evidence of this.  Walmart's CEO claims that the store's customers are "running out of money" (http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/27/news/companies/walmart_ceo_consumers_und...), and I don't doubt that; Walmart is going to have to do something about this, aren't they?  (Perhaps includiing to lobby Congress for more foodstamps or lower qualifications? TBTF Walmart backdoor subsidies?)  We know that Walmart's single-largest sales days are always the first days of the month, as this is when government benefits are released (http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/18/us-usa-foodstamps-idUSTRE5BH2C...).  What would happen to shelf prices if suddenly the stores were full of food and empty of customers?

If anyone has some more consolidated information on this topic, please post a link. Also, I know someone who was a Walmart cashier, and she says there were days when it was nearly all EBT transactions.  Anyone other anonymous cashiers out there from other markets who can shed some light?

EDIT: and I almost forgot to mention, of course, that it is no other than JPM who is the larger adminster of the EBT program.  They always seem to get a piece of the pie, even from "starving" people.

 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 04:43 | 1237237 buzzard
buzzard's picture

And those 14% now not buying food, what will they be doing? Starving perhaps? Funny how our thinking always seems to stop one step short of an honest realization.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:35 | 1236934 Zmelli
Zmelli's picture

Thanks, I have not sold an Ounce and now I can sleep at night!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:10 | 1236227 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

The Face of FACISM...They don't even bother to get dressed anymore, the CRONIES are simply just strutting around in the nude for all to see.. Every possible stress test has been thrown at the sheep and they don't even get a slight reaction. So now it's just an outright free for all, grab, steal, manipulate as much as you can. They own the markets, they own the Government and now they own you. Until the people in this country wake up and realize how badly they're being robbed, manipulated, controlled and indebted by the CRONIES nothing will change and the FEDS printing presses will just keep feeding the corrupt system until America is bankrupt and left to defend itself from the rest of the disgruntled planet... 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:55 | 1236351 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Yep

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:01 | 1236538 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

+1 Well spoken sir!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:12 | 1236241 theinebriatedsot
theinebriatedsot's picture

let's see......yup, I have more FRNs I can donate to the cause to buy more silver on the cheap(er). I'll bide my time and add to my collection. Meanwhile, I'll have another beer and hang out.......

 

el sot-to

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:22 | 1236408 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

I just bought a roll of Kookaburras and I did not even need any more. It was the only 1 oz'er I did not have any of. I always thought they were beautiful but to damn expensive. Got a great buy on them. Now I want to get some more of the Angel Libertads another beautiful coin.Im buying every day all the way down from here until it bottoms. Im going to have to get a better door for my saferoom.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:28 | 1236745 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

Im going to have to get a better door for my saferoom.

Probably a good idea.  And an even better idea: don't talk about it.


Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:55 | 1236780 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

No worries I have 200 acres of hidey holes and 10ft high fences,a bunch of bull buffalo that are not to friendly If they don't recognize you and if they are in rut even recognition becomes iffy.and a 300win mag w 12/X that I can shoot something between the eyes as far as I can see It. The safe room was just a comment.

 You see us ole Indians saved some small herds for seed just in case we ever get to cut down all the fences again. Just a dream. or is it. 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:02 | 1236832 trav7777
trav7777's picture

and none of that shit will burn, will it?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:15 | 1236863 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Sure bring your matches. 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 04:55 | 1237242 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I don't think he'll make it past the hairy angry cow.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:19 | 1236255 Pepe
Pepe's picture

"Escape from freedom" and "To have and to be" ( Erich Fromm ) come to mind

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:22 | 1236258 drink or die
drink or die's picture

Silver is crashing because Osama is dead, so the endless wars, tyranny, and horrible spending habits of the US can be reversed and this country can finally return to normal.

 

What do you mean they can't?

 

Oh.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:20 | 1236870 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

ah.

US debt is satisfied trolly trollerson? all is well because of one death?

Turn your eyes to Israel my man. The game has just begun. Our pawn was just removed from the board and the King is still afoot, gaurded by his Queen.

Regardez!

 

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:22 | 1236259 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

The silver price is in lock step with the physical supply curve.  Its a fire sale on the final silver nuggets at COMEX Vault -- they have to make room for all the freeze dried food and ammo cans.  Bart Chilton started reading John Birch.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:24 | 1236265 Guy Fawkes
Guy Fawkes's picture

Enjoy it now ... because when this correction is over you will see a rebound in silver that will light your hair on fire. Volatility is the name of the game and all we are doing is shaking out the weak hands.

The rebound will be something to behold so get ready to back the truck up one more time.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:06 | 1236540 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

In the spirit of Lawrence Livermore I am getting ready to be the mother of all plungers.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:38 | 1236296 MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

Comrades! This is a good thing!

BTFD, go physical, and stay put. The paper silver is being destroyed.

Why are you trading your FRN's for silver anyway?

Subway tokens?

DUH!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:59 | 1236353 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

+

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:12 | 1236398 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Play the paper for the rise and buy the physical on the dips...and maybe bank a little extra coin by going short as it declines so you have more FRN's to buy the physical on the dip.

Works perfectly well...although I wouldn't recommend this strategy for the squeamish.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:32 | 1236594 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Uh...paper silver gains EQUAL TAXES....KISS

Keep It Simple Stupid!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:52 | 1236851 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

+1111111 Exactly. On playing paper and buying physical.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:40 | 1236305 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Looks like someones about to shit silver.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:53 | 1236342 tmosley
Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:12 | 1236374 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I don't know for sure but it looks like someone in Asia is going to unload. I could be very wrong but from what I look at, it's lookin' like another leg down has a decent probability.

$dxy is rippin' higher @ the moment as well, not the typical selling I've become accustomed to in Asian trading, gona' have to see how it materializes.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:00 | 1236531 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I have the USDX as unchanged, at 73.12.  

What indicators do you have that someone in Asia is planning to sell tonight?  Or were you just talking about the USDX?

Asians are buying up all the silver.  I wouldn't be surprised if much of it was disappearing into state reserves.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:40 | 1236584 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Re-Check your numbers USD is ZOOMING.

Don't worry about about what I watch. 

....no Asians aren't snapping up silver. Don't know where you are getting your info from...

check aud/usd.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:56 | 1236650 akak
akak's picture

Re-Check your numbers USD is ZOOMING.

I don't know what you are talking about.  The US dollar is very modestly up for the day according to the all-but-meaningless US Dollar Index, but hardly "zooming".  Of course, it is on a strictly one-way trajectory in real terms, as are all fiat currencies, which is down.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:10 | 1236672 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

You like to hang out around highschools to pick up girls/boys don't you? 

I read about your type in the newspapers all the time.

You fit the profile. Just sayin'

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:13 | 1236694 akak
akak's picture

Are you on crack, or merely responding to the wrong comment?

In either case, you completely failed to address my points.  So do so, or shut the fuck up.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:06 | 1236836 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

You don't have any points worth addressing.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:13 | 1236853 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

Someone to save us

someone to follow

Someone to shame us

some brave apollo

we want you big brother.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 00:21 | 1237018 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Why so butthurt?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:12 | 1236688 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I must have missed the "zoom!" part:

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=h1

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:53 | 1236975 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Sure, cherry pick your time frame?  Are you RobotTrader?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:54 | 1236977 punishmentnotrevenge
punishmentnotrevenge's picture

Fucking sock puppet!  get back to work surfing kiddie porn you government WHORE

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:38 | 1238834 SILENCE DOOGOOD
SILENCE DOOGOOD's picture

 Yeah Asshole!!!! Now CHECK YOUR ZOOMING DOLLAR!!!!!!!!!!!!! BITCH........

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:35 | 1236762 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Right, don't worry about what you watch.  What a douchebag.

You don't actually know anything.  Just talking shit.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:59 | 1236784 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

$49 by the end of the week right? 

Ok...

We'll see who the douchebag is. 

Price is the final arbiter.

...you better get a pay day loan and start pumping.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:40 | 1236941 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

You only have what's in your hand at the end of the day.

Oops, so sorry. Nice car, shame about your penis.

All hat no oil.

All boots no cattle.

All vault no silver.

All shaft no lode.

.....

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:54 | 1236973 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Wow. 

I have anonymous people writing about my penis. 

This is celebrity status. 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 08:32 | 1237491 trav7777
trav7777's picture

welcome to the club...but you are on the C list still

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:45 | 1238861 SILENCE DOOGOOD
SILENCE DOOGOOD's picture

  I knew someone like you. Everyone talked about his celebrety dick and one day someone took his asshole to prove his dick wasn't that great...........

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:50 | 1236339 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

... annd it's gone ...

 

That one was a lot shorter than yesterday's crash.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:53 | 1236346 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Platinum bitches.  The Trinity does not move in tandom, they pull each other along.  They are monie, and monie is what leverages the system.  This is why PM Trolls are so stupid.  So silver has pulled back a litlle.  Gold is still above $1500 and platinum is at its resistance level.  All silver has to do is bounce off support and then the next move will begin. 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:12 | 1236399 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ Platinum bitches!  My favorite PM.

I always enjoy reading your replies Mr Lennon.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:41 | 1236612 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

You can't eat platinum.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:46 | 1236620 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

for all of your humility, you do know what is up.   platinum, like gold and silver, is monie.  and i return the compliment.  you post great thoughts.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:54 | 1236348 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

The Gubmint is looking for ways to save moolah and cut costs.

Shutting down the CFTC would be a consideration that deserves top of the list billing.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 19:57 | 1236349 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Relatively piddly volume on that raid -- not many stops left to run.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:14 | 1236395 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The Chinese will love this.  They will load up on everything they can get.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:23 | 1236404 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

50 day moving average 37.50

100 dma 33.80

200 dma 27.50

Technically primary trend is not broken until we have a sustained break below the 200 dma Gold touched its 200 dma several times over the last decade and hit its 100 dma more times than i was interested in counting.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:14 | 1236693 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

How many times do you have to be told this:  TA doesn't mean diddly in manipulated markets.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:24 | 1236889 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Here is a good chart to follow.

http://twitpic.com/4t1i9m

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:22 | 1236430 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

I'm long silver, long term.  I'm planting my flag, Old Glory to be exact.  Silver will be useful for things other than lighting your woodstove within our lifetimes. BTFD.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:27 | 1236460 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

The Silver price looks exactly like the 13 week T's - who is getting out of Dodge City lickity split.

Warnings don't come any clearer

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:31 | 1236472 Zer0henge
Zer0henge's picture

These are NOT FLASH CRASHES.

They are margin calls.

What the hell is wrong with you amateurs?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:03 | 1236539 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The fools with no experience call everyone else amateurs.  Funny.

Christ, it's like you were born yesterday.  The HFTs started trading silver, both SLV and futures, and all of a sudden we are having flash crashes every day.  But you can't even identify the problem.  

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:24 | 1236562 Rynak
Rynak's picture

zer0henge is a new troll .... check his/her other posts, they are all exclusively PM bashing.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:07 | 1236843 trav7777
trav7777's picture

So says the "expert" who said we'd be at 49 at the end of the week and was recently calling for imminent $60 handles?

You EPITOMIZE amateurishness.

How much more money will people lose with your stupid advice?  I suppose it is good though that they learn this hard lesson that you are an idiot who is not to be paid any heed to on anything.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 00:26 | 1237029 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Christ, you don't even know what you are talking about.  You act as if this down move is forever and permanent.

Don't let common sense stand in the way of your irrational personal hatred of tmosley.  That evil tmosley who has been losing people so much money over the last four years by suggesting they buy physical silver and don't use leverage, and don't give the silver up for any number of dollars, but only trade it for gold when the time comes.  

You are an idiot.  Why don't you stick to lectures on the brain sizes of quatroons and leave the sane people alone?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:48 | 1236499 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Naughty Tyler, you're surely not suggesting that these after-hours, no-volume, dramatic moves are anything other than the natural ebb and flow of a normal market?

DavidC

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 01:22 | 1237110 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

No, but that's what Trav and Bob would have you believe. Silver was overbought so it has to go down. All is normal, move along, COMEX is legit, JPM is above board, etc...these guys just throw shit around here without even talking about how crooked the PM paper markets have become. I find that kind of odd.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 08:37 | 1237499 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yes...silver was grossly overbought.  It is probable to go down.  And it has.

I don't know where you get the rest of this bullshit in your binary worldstate, because NONE of the people who said silver was overbought EVER claimed that COMEX was legit and all the rest of the nonsense you are ascribing to them

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 20:49 | 1236502 ArkOmen1
ArkOmen1's picture

Methinks this is going to be like Braveheart where they're holding all the carved spears and the army is galloping towards us. "Hold..... Hold..... Hold...... NOW!!!!!"

Hold fast my physical metals brethren... When next the metals rain down upon us with new and glorious wealth, we will be making the rules! The demand for physical is overwhelming as we all know, and soon the Comex will default. So once again, bring it on New World Order! Your money is disintegrating because of your greed, and the metals suppresors will be brought to real justice. Not the phony justice you boast of regarding phony enemies! You are real terrorists! Your financial terrorism will soon be brought to an end, and we will win! Like ants marching away from the hill with our physical metals in tow, we just need a few more good gold and silver bugs to pick up the phone and make the order! You are finished New World Order! We are not your slaves!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:54 | 1236810 firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

You took the feelings right out of my soul.

I'm with you my friend.

Be well and thanks for the post and inspiration.

Firefighter302

 

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:16 | 1236858 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Righteous.

+ $1530

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:33 | 1236880 YouBetYourLife
YouBetYourLife's picture

I agree 100% - COMEX et al will be taken down, which is why I expect sooner or later the edict will be issued once again that owning gold and silver is prohibited and all PMs must be surrendered in exchange for a "fair value" payment in fiat.

I'm not sure what options we owners of physical would have at that point. All that prudence and preparedness for naught. 

It's the only thing that keeps me up at night.  

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:11 | 1236543 strannick
strannick's picture

CFTC Commisioners Michael Dunn, Scott OMalia, Gary Gensler, and Jill Sommers. Names to live in American infamy. Enablers of Banker corruption. Was it worth it?

The question isnt IF they're doing their job -one conviction of manipulation in the CFTC's 35 year history, while CFTC Justice Painter says he was TOLD by the CFTC Commisioner to rule AGAINST plaintiffs- the question is whether the CFTC DOESNT do its job because it is

1. Corrupt

2. Ignorant

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:13 | 1236559 CRBull
CRBull's picture

I actually anticipated this move today, and Bought a Roll of Maples during the five minute period we got under $41...  It may go down a few more dollars.. so what, I am happy with the buying opportunity.

Not one Site, Apmex, Gainesville, Tulving had any Maples or Eagles Deliverable until the end of this month, or next month. And I have yet to receive the last order I placed for Eagles before the rise to 50.  Its nice they are able to shake some of the loose more speculative players out, giving us core holders the ability to get more on the cheap. Truth be told, I care less about the measure of Value of silver in US dollars and more about how many other tangible goods I can purchase with said silver. 

 

And that is doing pretty nicely, when I can nearly purchase a Gallon of Gasoline with a pre-64 US Dime!   .10c a Gallon in "real money"..

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:59 | 1236645 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Why not check CNI. golddealer.com

They always have inventory. They always had the best spreads over the last decade except maybe tulving, but he didnt always have inventory.

Ouch......4.50 over spot for SAE

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:03 | 1236830 CRBull
CRBull's picture

Will look into it, Thanks for the tip...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:57 | 1236566 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

I just bought Canadian silver dollars (1935 to 1967 era) on APMEX for 79 cents above spot.  Each coin is 80% silver and contain over a half ounce of silver.

Silver Eagles, Libertads and Maple Leafs are getting scarce.  Buy demonetized U.S., Canadian, Mexican, and Australian silver coins instead.

Above all, BTFD!!!

 

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:55 | 1236648 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Apmex has blue tab fever. Even the scratch and dent industrial stuff is being depleted rapidly.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:15 | 1236704 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Buy demonetized U.S., Canadian, Mexican, and Australian silver coins instead.

Could you name one of those "demonetized" U. S. coins for me?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:47 | 1236861 akak
akak's picture

US Trade Dollars, 1873-1883

He's probably NOT going to be finding any at or near bullion value, however.
Ironic, too, given how hated and unpopular they were in their day.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:24 | 1239751 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You sly dog.   Fact remains that the trade dollars were always accepted by the merchants.  You just couldn't pay your taxes with them.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:31 | 1236592 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

So seriously, I try to figure out what their end game is? They are obviously allowing JPM do what they want and the goal is to keep the price of silver low. But why? I understand that the dollar collapse is inevitable. Do they plan to use silver to back the new currency? I started buying in the early 80's because I saw the deficit's would continue to grow and get out of control. I am happy with the wealth preservation and I dread the total collapse, but it will come. It is just I don't know what happens next.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:44 | 1236615 Rynak
Rynak's picture

You seem to be assuming that "they" do have a big plan. It certainly fits "big" conspiracy theories of everyything being planned. I am not so  sure about that. From what i have seen, there is no big detailed supercoordinated plan.... things rather seem to evolve organic and short-term thinking style... as inefficient as that may be. I don't buy fully into the "don't attribute to malice what can be explained with stupidity"-department, but i do think that they do have some point... it just may as so often not be the entire story. If there is some coordinated effort, my bet would be on coordinated clever short-to-midterm thinking.... under no circumstances longterm..... when ever have humans excelled at longterm thinking, lol?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:35 | 1236601 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Well, I've been telling you guys that an unlimited amount of paper can be used to short silver, swamping physical demand.

They will keep beating silver into submission until all the guys have sold out and the U.S. Government owns most of it.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:44 | 1236608 akak
akak's picture

Go pound Lululemon up your ass, troll, then die.

Your cowardly flyby comments here are about as useful as a dirty diaper, bearing a great similarity in content as well.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:53 | 1236634 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Sadly, he does have a point. A lot of sheeps will be scared and buying it (or rathe, selling it). Do the mavericks have the cashflow to replace their balls?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:51 | 1236637 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Akak you used to be funny and interesting. I miss the old akak.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:02 | 1236658 akak
akak's picture

Perhaps having to endlessly deal with the exact same shallow and disingenuous crap, over and over, from the same pro-Establishment cowardly posters and trolls has worn down my nerves.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:46 | 1236794 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

Are the longer days of light getting to you up their in Alaska akthefuckingak.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:27 | 1236901 akak
akak's picture

You're funny when you babble mindlessly --- which is usually.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:00 | 1236652 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

Kak e

why don't you fuck off for a change.  fucken troll magnet.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:43 | 1236618 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Sure they can. And walmart can play rolling back prices for a few years before playing rolling back measures.

Don't fight the fed. It can't take it.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:51 | 1236636 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

They will try, no doubt.

Phase one was make cotton candy of the stock market.

Phase two is crush the elderly, savers, and sane investors.

Phase three is crush precious metals.

Phase four is raise rates.

Phase five is raise taxes.

They may throw a good war in there somewhere, or some civil unrest and a need to "go digital" and accept cash only in limited venues.  Those are high Hearts in shooting the moon though.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:35 | 1236936 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Wow, true definition of a free market...

 

That's one of the reason people are buying physical moron.

But do post a good pic soon.

 

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:48 | 1236616 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

Yes, the SEC is rigourously pursuing an anti-trust case against Standard Oil.

It will probably take the desk secretary hired for her hot gams and good taste in shoes and lingerie to point out that the statute of limitations has expired and anyone involved is dead; but that won't affect the paychecks or pensions, nor the "garter belt stockings stilettos doggy style" porn searches.

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 21:48 | 1236625 JPDG
JPDG's picture

Thanks for the discount, Blythe.  You don't know how easy it is to buy silver with my J.P. Morgan Chase credit card!  Mwahaha!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:02 | 1236669 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

OT: a million dollars does not go as far as it used to when building a private compound in a stone age country. You see osamas Million dollar house? Was it in foreclosure.? Was he late on payments and squating?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:25 | 1236728 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

No kidding, they way the gov was going off you thought this was the Beverly hills of Pakistan.  The propaganda is just unbelievable.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:06 | 1236670 s2man
s2man's picture

sold my paper SLV just before the "crash". As soon as I can get it out of the 401k, it'll go back into physical PM's and other commodities like food, land and bullets. Hopefully, for me, PM's will stay down until I can get the cash in hand.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:31 | 1236737 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Smart move. Don't you people watch interest rates and currencies? I cashed out that PM nonsense on Sunday, when the F/X market was chomping on support levels and assending trend lines. Sell in May and GO away! I lightened my GBP load after Merv the Swerve(BoE) shot his mouth off! Look @ Treasuries! Yields are pathetic again.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:00 | 1236821 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Good point, yenmaster

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:34 | 1236922 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Thank you kindly TCT.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:35 | 1236770 firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

APMEX has raised premiums of Silver Eagles from $3 a coin, to $8 a coin over spot, tonight.

I was hunting for some $44 dollar Eagles and got denied.

Bring a $50 bill for an Eagle, tonight.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:38 | 1236779 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

As they pullled you out of the oxygen tent

You asked for the latest party

 

this is The year of the Diamond Dogs.

Stay hard, stay focused, stand ready.

Gods Speed my boys/Gurls.

I hate PC!!

Trade like you have balls/ovaries. Big bastard ones!

The people united will never be defeated.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:43 | 1236786 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

Posters on this site are way too sensitive about those not on the same side of the trade.   And they get so offended by anyone challenging their position (albeit most "challenges" are just name calling).   It is strange.  May be a sign of insecurity about their position.....or just lots of time on their hands.  

Might be better to trade this market -- with all of its "malfunctions."  The volatility in the silver market has been great to trade.  Enjoy it.  Use it to your advantage.  You can be long physical and trade paper silver on the long and short side (knowing if you admit such on this site, you will be branded a heretic). 

If you are buy and hold, only check prices quarterly at most.  

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:07 | 1236844 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Yep...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:25 | 1236891 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hi Hulk!

I remember you asked if we could have a drink at $1500 gold, well I did not forget that.  I will have my absinthe w/ berry flavored vodka very soon!

Cheers to you!

If / when we get to FOFOA's +/- $50,000, that's when we go have a REAL party, I even have a candidate city picked out...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:19 | 1238305 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I had forgotten about that completely DCRB! A video drink perhaps!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:48 | 1236804 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture


More importantly, CPM’s latest Market Alert also noted that “there was no group of silver conspirators trying to ‘bankrupt’ the silver market; it was just business as usual on the Comex. Open interest across all Comex futures con-tracts surged from around 700 million ounces to 743.2 million ounces on the 14th April, reflecting the wave of shorter term investors pouring into silver, following the price higher and driving it higher with their own actions. These trends do not suggest a massive rush into silver by long-term investors, and they show no evidence that the silver conspiracy crowd has had any success in mounting an assault on Comex inventories.”

At the end of the day, one of the corroborating pieces of evidenceto such a conclusion having been drawn by CPM’s analysts is the fact that during this wild and headline-making period of silver’s price explosion, investors also have not been “particularly voracious buyers” of in the ETF space. In fact, silver held via ETFs rose from 601.6 million ounces on 1 April to 612.7 million ounces on the 25th April, but fell sharply thereafter to 604.4 million ounces by the 29th of April, showing a loss of some 258 tonnes.

The chief silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust, showed a gain in balances from 358.1 million ounces on the 1st of April to 366.2 million ounces on the 25th April. As silver prices rose sharply last week, the SLV holdings actually dropped back to 354.3 million ounces as of the 29th of April. As of the beginning of the week, and counting Monday’s eight tonnes of silver outflow, the SLV has lost 376 tonnes of the metal from balances. Those patterns are not exactly indicative of a “moon shot” for the white metal at this juncture.

And now, back to a quick review of the fundamentals-related picture in silver. Yes, such metrics do matter in gold and silver and other commodities, irrespective of the latest declarations from mining firm CEO’s that they no longer do. The estimates and findings that follow are courtesy of London-based GFMS, the only other specialty firm that tracks the important components of supply and demand in metals, aside from the aforementioned CPM Group.

GFMS data released quite recently indicates that silver mine production will witness another increase in the current year-driven in large part by output hikes in Mexico- and that it could tally a total of 790 million ounces (24,571 tonnes). Unlike in gold, net producer hedging will add considerable tonnage to the supply side in the white metal, as mines could contribute some 40 million ounces (1,245 tonnes) via that process to the market. As well, scrap silver supply is estimated to experience a gain, as high prices continue to draw existing supplies of silver out of current owners’ hands. The total supply of silver in the marketplace could rise by approximately 30 million ounces (933 tonnes) in 2011.

On the demand side, the firm feels that growth in the industrial demand for silver might slow dramatically during the current year “owing to slower global GDP growth and normalization of stock levels. The areas of photography and silverware demand are likely to contract further, while there is hope that jewellery demand might witness a better level of offtake. Government silver sales, after having experienced a sizeable decline in 2007-2009 spiked sharply higher last year, and Russia was identified as the major seller of the white metal (with some 40-45 million ounces coming to market).

Nevertheless, the silver market, as GMFS sees it “will remain in [a] substantial surplus this year.” Investment will remain the single category that must continue to absorb such overhangs (with us since about 2006, at least) if the silver market is not going to “clear” at a significantly lower value equation. That kind of overdependence on investment demand is not exactly an auspicious paradigm for silver.

GMFS also believes that silver’s historically high level of price volatility will continue to be manifest in 2011 and that a wide trading range is still in store for the white metal. We have, thus far, already had a $23+ range within which silver has raced around this year and its Q1 average volatility has already exceeded 39 percent. Factor in April, and those numbers would see a dramatic alteration.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:51 | 1236971 akak
akak's picture

Is this directly from the mouth of Jeffrey "100:1" Christian himself?

GFMS is almost as much complicit in, and fully as sympathetic with, the Establishment's decades-long suppression of the precious metals (both in price and as monetary assets) as has been JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and the world's central banks.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 05:08 | 1237244 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

there was no group of silver conspirators trying to ‘bankrupt’ the silver market; "

Nice tactic. Implausible impossible deniability. Who would of thought to use THAT!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6hL6fkJ1_k

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 07:38 | 1237338 Stormdancer
Stormdancer's picture

Ol'  Fuzzface Christian's style is instantly recognizable. 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:19 | 1236868 Alchemist
Alchemist's picture

Most likely jsut good old margin calls

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:30 | 1236906 superman07
superman07's picture

Maybe they realize if it isnt in your vault by now it doesnt exist

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:33 | 1236926 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Why will gold, silver and oil continue rising?

INflation due to monetization which will not stop:

1. banks will need trillions more;

2. massive deleveraging will conitnue to be monetized;

3. war is super-inflationary and the latest Operation Nobel Peace prize in Libya shows there is no end in sight to wars;

4.public pension debts ar eunder funded by somewhere between $1.3 to $5 trillion depending who you read.

 

Strap on yoru seat belts and watch silver hit $485 (as Shadow Stats says might happen) and Gold hit $4,000 as Pauslon predicts....and oil hit $220 as nomura predicts.

GL! whatever your decision.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:42 | 1236951 Money Squid
Money Squid's picture

Dude (?) where you been? have not seen the post of your's in a long long time.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 00:28 | 1237035 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Tired of being a broken clock, and decided to only report the readout on the face when it was correct.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:41 | 1236947 Money Squid
Money Squid's picture
Bang Dae-Ho
Wed, 05/04/2011 - 00:06 | 1236994 plata pura
plata pura's picture

ZSL the favor'd; like a decadent philistine roiling up in his pimp'd out bucket .

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 00:43 | 1237064 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Soros might be taking some profits, but my guess is he knows there is a concerted effort to slam down PMs by governments and banks. (Maybe he even thinks confiscation is on the horizon, which is another way JP Morgan can get out of jail free).

He'll get back as soon as whomever is doing the shorting runs out of ammo.

 

 

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