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And For Today's Margin Hike...
CME goes full retard, and is now seriously threatening to destabilize the clearing structure of the market with what appears a panicked margin hike every single day in one or more commodities. Among today's products impacted RBOB and RBOB crack spreads, up by 21% and 50%, respectively, as the CME makes it all too clear which products the Obama memo said need to be killed post haste.
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Again, the (non-existent) typo is the sum total of your response.
Sorry, for the typo, Dicky,... my mind was busy with the sister part...
wait until the mississippi finds itself a new route to the gulf and watch what RBOB does when all those refineries are underwater or shut in.
no wonder the margins went up, becasue so did the river
Nothing like blatant market manipulation to instill confidence in the electorate...
100% Ponzi FUBAR centrally planned economy
Time to go long on booze.
From "Crack is Wack" to
Let's Whack Crack !
I hate to say this (in part because my observation deals with a tool that some have mastered and relied on for so long), but technical, or chart analysis can--at best--only be seen as partially (if at all effective) in these rigged markets. And this is true now more than ever. Look at the impunity with which the bank cartel is doing what it wants to. Look at what happened to crude today, and silver last week. What is happening here has parallels to what is going on in the MENA countries. There, we are watching how government are losing control and, in a response of panic, tightening the noose around the neck of their citizens, turning every official statement into a propaganda declaration, and using psy-ops to get their way (aside from just pure, brut, unethical force and violence. In a similar attempt to control things, banksters here (and the administration) are manipulating facts and events, and they are doing so in ways that are brutally destructive of the middle class. In this environment then, technical chart analysis means far less than it ever did. As long as the CFTC does not restore order to the markets (i.e. end price manipulation), there will be no way to sanely foresee anything; except, that you can bet on the fact that the banksters AND THE ADMINISTRATION ITSELF will continue to jack us around at whim. This will continue until the CFTC puts an end to the at-will actions of the banksters (which is unlikely given their status as part of the "plunge protection team"), or until the markets and/or economy implodes ... or a black swan event happens. Because these (or some derivative thereof) is likely to eventually happen, things will eventually even out, but not without more bloodshed (i.e. financial loses and loose of faith in our government).
Read Trader Dan's response (and mine to his observations) about this subject here: http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/market-manipulation-not-t...
Read my opinion piece on why the CFTC will do nothing here: http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/04/reason-why-cftc-is-doing-...
For some levity and my call to action, watch this animation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs7-yDO6i9Y
"In a similar attempt to control things, banksters here (and the administration) are manipulating facts and events, and they are doing so in ways that are brutally destructive of the middle class."
The new middle class will be PM holders, and what they are doing is quite benificial for the new middle class IMHO
not that I doubt these increasing are tied to the gov some way but is this activity normal? or are these margin hikes unprecedented?
If you shorted silver when CME raised margins, you made money. If you bought calls on SCO (double short oil) monday when ZH reported similar margin hikes in oil, you made money. My question for the group is, this: what commodity will be the next CME target to have its margins raised? Figure that out, buy puts, or calls on the double inverse, and make money again, no?
It will be a grain.
I believe these moves will be interpreted as a sign of serious strain in the financial system. The "Checkmate" Tyler referred to: More QE would crush the economy through inflation. No QE would crush the economy through delation. So attempting a "political solution" has been resorted to in panic. But just like putting a finger into a leaking dyke, it's only a cheap and temporary thrill.
They should have saved the margin changes for next summer to help Nobama. The market will ultimately rule.
Tyler, it seems like you want it both ways. On one hand, you attribute the Fed's endless money printing to the orchestrated run-up in equity markets that will reverse once the liquidity pumps cease (which I agree with). But you also seem to think that commodities won't suffer once QEII winds down. It almost seems like you're in disbelief that oil and gas have such significant downside volatility. Oil and gas has no business trading at these levels as evidenced by the oversupply in the market and sharp drop in gasoline consumption compared to the prior year. What you are seeing is that the record high gas prices despite persistent 9% (underreported) U3 unemployment is dramatically slowing the real economy. The oil run-up was driven by cheap money fueled speculation and the same factors that will drive down equities will also kill the commodities market. Watch copper, it's telling you that the economy is really slowing down.
+1
Not at all. The deflationary swoon following the realization that QE2 is ending (which is delayed as is) is precisely the green card that the politicians need (and Bernanke knows this) to ramp up further monetary stimulus. We fully accept that commodities will tumble since the market is no longer able to discount more than 1 headline ahead. That will be the next and last deflationary shock (which we have been predicting since the onset of QE Lite, or last August) which will force the Fed to roll out the biggest dollar diluting juggernaut ever seen. Ironically, that's the event markets should be discounting, but are unable to. We have repeatedly pointed out that 2011 is a carbon copy of 2010. And indeed -so far, it has not deviated from the script by one iota. Alas, even the scriptwriter has run out of imagination.
As for the CME's actions, these should have been taken long ago. The fact that they weren't either underscores their risk management incompetence, or their complicity in what is with every passing day starting to appear like a wholesale plan to destroy commodities regardless of other risk assets. Either way, does not look good for the CME.
Tyler, of course I agree with your analysis in the long term ... however, you cannot deny heavy speculation in PM, and these wild moves prove it.
"however, you cannot deny heavy speculation in PM, and these wild moves prove it."
So what is your point beyond speculators are frustrating to the whims of central planners?
But there is another card up their sleeve... not QE Lite, but a tax holiday for cash repatriation.
Companies are still sitting on record cash balances, but they can't spend it.
And that is also one of the reasons lending is anemic. The lending isn't really needed. The large corps already have cash, it is just trapped.
QE2 ends, and then a tax holiday on foreign cash. That plus the lower commoditiy environment will kick the recovery in to overdrive... and then rates follow higher, and your precious PMs will get crushed even more.
Get out now while you still can.
That's right. This is what large companies have been waiting for! Instead of bring home the cash and then spending it on R&D, physical plant improvements, hiring to generate an IRR hurdle of 15 to 20 %, they're waiting for a government tax break to do all this. Mind you, the hiring, physical plant construction, etc adds to their tax deductability or amortization/depreciation schedules and most wouldn't be taxed anyway.
And, as sooon as they take all this risk, bango - there are all those overleveraged consumers waiting to buy whatever the hell it is they are going out on a limb to invest in.
Oh wait, the investment may take a few years to build out, and there is that global overcapacity thing, nahhh. It's the tax holiday that will get them going...
IDIOT
Foreign earned cash is taxed as SOON as it is brought ashore... if you give them a holiday, R&D, plants and all kinds of shit get built in the US instead of abroad. And has an immediate 35% return on capital. It will be massively stimulative.
Stimulative to them. Not investments. Stock buy backs and dividends, yes
These same companies are sitting on cash here. If they have great capex opportunities now, they would them regardless. This is a hollow argument.
I dont oppose the repatriation of cash, But this argument works only on the margin. It will not set off an economic boom
why would any smart money move back to the US. when growth and returns are higher almost everywhere else in the world. Companies with offshore cash will invest it offshore.
Most companies are growing in the emerging markets. They are not growing in the US markets.
They're waiting for a tax holiday AND a Republican adminstration.
ok, now i'm fairly certain numbnuts here is really trying to just fuck with people.
Go back to smoking meth. The R&D and the plants are already offshore, if they want more then the additions will be offshore, and frankly aren't even profitableunder the current EPA/OSHA regime. Tax holidays are gimmick to boost Federal tax receipts.
Great plan with that genius tax holiday. Let all that foreign cash go ahead and buy more US debt... I mean if the FED stops and the debt ceiling is welded in place SOMEONE has to keep the US afloat lest Ponzi and Bernake be remembered as one in the same.
+1
fail
Regurgitating truisms is safe, but also most of the time happens to be absolutely wrong. Like this time. As we discussed previously, and as Citigroup demonstrated, the only thing that would react to a Second Homeland Investment Act would be a spike in the dollar which would wipe out all stocks.
Citi's Steven Englander On The USD Impact Of A Second Homeland Investment Act
Also worth mentioning is the Political backlash that Obamatron would suffer from his "progressive" base, should he be foolish enough to hand over yet another tax-break to corporations. Math Man, pull your eye away from the microscope, and look at the bigger picture...
But as the Tyler pointed out previously, the end of qe2 would lead to rising interest rates and the destruction of the dollar.
So what do you think the markets will do with QE3? Risk on - higher commodities and stocks, once Great Recession phase II kicks in?
finally some common sense
ZH has stated many times in the last few weeks that nothing will be spared when they stop the printing presses and QEII winds down. I have been preparing for a dip in commodities, including Silver, Oil, Etc, directly out of the warnings made here on ZH. Not sure where you are getting your assumptions.
Thanks, Mr. Donohue, thanks Mr. Gill.
We have you on the record now.
Exact same game plan as the financial short squeeze happening in real time - rinse, wash, repeat (that old meme about revisiting your kills). Next step will be to perpetuate the "surge" in the setiment surveys as a sequential extension of the "lower" commodity prices. Ergo, margins preservation and upside surprise to the PCE into Q3
This all works AWESOMELY until:
You finally determine that this is stealth price fixing and a few years from now you have not only 100% margin requirements but begin to introduce negative margin which is a clever way of attempting to centrally plan all prices without calling yourselves Marxists. Perhaps if they read a few book on Karl Marx they would remember that the most important passage in all of his writing is and Treatise is " If Marxism is to be symbolized by one belief it is the abolishment of private property"
That is price fixing. When you go down this path you remove incentive and still arrive at 150 oil and 120 silver per oz but without a buffer. The real question should be is if the Fed and Govt are so concerned about speculation why do they not hike ES and Tech margins and if we are supposedly this concentrated on assisting the American consumer why do we allow Glass Steagall repealled and record Wall Street Bonuses fueled by free Fed pomo premium commisions and ridiculous leverage arrived from monetization??
The real answer is this and it cannot be disputed.
Americans recognize things like high gas prices and silver prices. The concern is that the bias in favor of Wall Street and negative implications of Federal Reserve monetization of 1.5 Trillion + bailouts & Fraud accounting + propaganda from MSM cannot counter higher gas and devalued dollar reality.
This is a step above confiscation. If they truly gave 8 flying fucks about prices the Federal Reserve would be mandated with only preserving the value of the dollar by an underlying commodity. Instead as usual with this administration and the elites they want to pilfer and play rear view politics and concern themselves with what the consumer can equate to bad policy.
All we need now is a Presidential mandate on evil oil companies fixing oil at $2.00 per gallon. That my friends is socialism and the masses will applaud out of ignorance.
I still try to figure out why??? Why does silver make them so anxious?? They have not gone after any other commodity like this.
Ticker JPM perhaps?
I still try to figure out why??? Why does silver make them so anxious?? They have not gone after any other commodity like this.
They should just raise margin requirments to 100% and blow up every single hedge fund that has a resources position.
That will probably trigger a stock market meltdown, which will push 10-year yields back down towards 2% and 6 mo. T-Bill yields to 3 b.p.
Then Uncle Gorilla can roll infinite amounts of debt over at near zero cost, and the corresponding reduction in debt service will lower the debt so that the debt ceiling is no longer an issue.
How easy is that?
See they have figured out everything.
Tough question on which capital base deserves to be destroyed:
a) private investment
b) Fed bal sht holdings
Can you guess the answer for US of A?
its not the public debt thats a problem, its the private debt. this whole focus on public spending has been engineer to get public to accept austerity after assuming banking systems losses. I wish people would start to wake up and realize that the taxpayer does not have to subsidize the FIRE sector. we should've had much more say in how the 5T in federal debt expansion was spent. instead our bought and paid for politicians either unwillingly or unknowingly sold out their constituency.
I still can't figure out why they started with silver. Why not go right for the oil? Is silver that important?
silver is a much smaller market + Asia was closed when they first started the hikes
It was written a long time ago that the silver market will bring down the whole banking system (they Know this) and so it makes them vary scared.
Times are a changing and the Fed, SEC and WH are sweating. The next steps will become more sinister: stop ALL commodities trading that does not involve assignment of physical. Wage and Price controls. Restricting capital flow to foreign banks and currencies to $1,000. Protective tariffs and a VAT.
LOL. The minute they try anything so stupid, an oil and gas exchange in Riyadh will open (where it should be anyway), and I'll be an investor in size.
The Bernack Plan:
Step 1: Get commodity prices to dip hard! ("What inflation bitches?")
Step 2: Get the short-term rally in the dollar ("What weak dollar bitches!")
Step 3: Mo money Mo money Mo money!
Side effect: economy back in recession fast as the largest US corporates get crushed by strong dollar, low oil price and spiraling core inflation
In 1982, when inflation raged in America after the dollar had been de-pegged from gold through the abolition of Bretton Woods in 1971 and Paul Volcker was chairman of the Fed, trying to curb it, a man in the Bronx was singing this little song here, that went down in music history as one of the best Rap songs ever.
Why ? Because it had a message.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4o8TeqKhgY
The previous release of inventory statistics in the COMEX warehouses was 05/05 at 19.00.
I guess it comes out this day and this time every week.
I am sure we will continue to see huge withdrawals of registered silver.
Winning.
When is the last time that margins were raised on these futures contracts?
gh
Do they honestly think this is really going to address inflation issues?Has anybody really looked at how deep rooted the inflationary problems are in health care, education, basic food products, utility rates, state provided services, and now housing (no not to purchase a house but rather with the rental markets as they are becoming increasingly tight driving rents higher as nobody can or wants to buy a home). Just like the game Whack a Mole, its time to play whack the commodities. Each time a new commodity pops up, it gets whacked with a margin hike, coordinated market intervention, or whatever else is available.
No worries as I always expected one last run in the USD and USTs as everyone bails on real assets deemed as risky and moves into paper assets deemed as "safe". Just another opportunity to dollar cost average in PMs, oil, agricultural, etc. during an artificially induced government manipulated market intervention that will most likely work in the short term (to keep the sheepie in line and guarantee re-elections) but explode in their face when after one last run into USD/USTs, the exodus will be only that much more violent.
Can't believe these bozos actually think they have control over the markets long-term but one thing is becoming clear. They are moving to more and more desperate measures to control the markets which indicates they are that much closer to losing complete control.
Dude, inflation is part of the game in an economic system whose life depends on continous growth. Isn't that the idea of our wonderful system?
Spoken like a true central planner.
To the stocks with you.
C'mon Dickster ... I'm sure sarcasm in not beyond you, is it?
Usually not though the site of your avatar impairs my better judgement.
In my own defense I did include a bit of gallows humor.
See ... I knew that you were a nice guy!
Apologies for my avatar
we should lower taxes and expand our wars some more to provide additional price stability
:-)
And the sniveling partisan fucks arrive on queue.
Dicky ... is that you?
I personally like this document:
http://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/files/20110502_May_Update_electronic.pdf
Especially in the "Disciplinary Actions" section where they list fraud offenses by certain NYMEX crude traders.
Great read as you watch the margin hikes and limits get flipped around.
Cheers.
To summarize, any investment involving leverage is pure speculation.
How's that housing market working?
If the maggots can't buy oil futures on margin it will lead to shortages. Yep, the comments section at zh has gone full retard.
Changing the rules mid-game because the outcome is unpalatable is moral hazard (and reprehensible I might add).
Moral hazard will impart of a loss of confidence impairing price discovery.
Impairment of price discovery with directional intent will create shortages as the summar driving season is subsidized by the Brent-WTI spread.
Are the dots really that hard to connect?
Hey dickster, leverage impairs price discovery as it adds totally new variables into the mix, like carry trades, interest rates, Bernank's fart smell, etc.
Fine then hike margins to 100% and be done with it.
My ire is directed toward the timing of the move and its underpinnings, another feable attempt at central planning (or more specifically counter acting an unitended consequence of central planning).
Dickster prefers de-centralized planning.
Without centralization the plan cannot be executed, the market will always win.
On a serious note:
Drikster, if that only were true!
Unfortunately this economic cancer has metastasized ... it's a game rigged by olygopolies all over the world ... we wanted other nations to buy into our economic system and that is exactly what they did ....
mobile capital means Monopoly-game on a worldwide scale ...
the more players in a market the greater the liquidity and the more efficient the market overall. We actually need more speculators in energy to counteract the influence of big hedge funds.
That is correct in a Monopoly-game mentality, but finance should be about something else, so rules (which are not natural by any means) can and should be changed when wealth extraction by the few hurts entire nations and the whole world.
finance should be about something else? something other than efficient capital allocation?
we need greater liquidity and greater transperancy in all markets. It would likely prevent the ills which have befallen us.
"finance should be about something else? something other than efficient capital allocation?"
He won't say it but I think the answer pretty clearly involves "the greater good"
I am always afraid of someone in power who says he has my greater good in mind and can take care of me better than I can take care of myself.
.
Finance, like in finance ideas and worthy endeavours ....not like following trends and algo-controlled HFT for pure wealth extraction.
When Finance undermines the fabric and security of a nation, the people have a right to defend themselves.
It is the central planners undermining the fabric and security of the nation, the activities of speculators are merely a consequence (unintended or otherwise) of their actions.
Bingo! We have a winner. Same as a cash price or "just in time" manufacturing. Of course why even have an exchange if it is cash only. I thing the "da-lou ren" will answer that question for us.
Other than general government corruption I really don't see the problem here. If the government were not corrupt and acted in the interests of the population this would have been a long standing rule, high margins and position limits on essential commodities (food and fuel) to reduce volatility and then let supply and demand move the prices longer term. The problem now is that they are only doing this to get re-elected and everyone knows it so everyone will end up punking them when the time is right and create even more volatility. Oh also to the idiots who say that the governmnt can't do anything, just watch. A bunch of idiot kids I suppose. Nobody ever said anything like that about Nixon for example. The guy would use the power of the state to bust your chops in a heartbeat. Obama is a punk though so let's see how seriously he is taking this if at all.
Awfully big "If" in that second sentence there, boy.
The CME had so much fun with silver they cannot resist the temptation for oil!
I think something bigger is going on. The FED can print money, but they cannot direct where it goes. QEII was supposed to lower the cost of borrowing for those producing goods and services. It did so at the margin as it relieved the effects of the credit crisis for large corporation. It has not really done so for small and medium size businesses. The FED is disappointed to see the money go into inflation hedges and every day items like food, cloths and energy. The FED was hoping the easy credit would go into wealth creation activities, but it went into wealth preservation activities instead. So now the regulators are trying to tighten credit in wealth preservation activities, while pushing easy credit everywhere else in the hopes of reviving the economy. (The FED still has another $160 billion of government debt to monetize.)
Every centrally planned manipulation has an unintended consequence. With easy credit going into the hoarding of commodities and not productive activity in the real economy, the latest action of the CME is an admission that QEII is a failure.
http://www.TheAngryGrapes.Com
Good summary. They are herding the crowd into the intended "investments" of treasuries etc...by taking away the unintended alternatives.
It gets worse every day...yet the Sheeples remain passive....more Bread and Circus, please...
You know what margins i want to see raised. NATURAL GAS.
Please god, let nattie catch enough of a bid to necessitate a hike in margins.
+1 ...
short of nuclear fusion, you know it's coming ....
ancient American Indian saying
If you find yourself riding a dead horse it is time to dismount.
Nat gas has been dead for a while, but now might not be a bad time to get back in. I think I will wait.
obviously margins need to increase as price and volatility increase.
However it could be done in an open and public way with a formula.
The way it is being done now is open to manipulation and front running.
You think? The CME insiders are minting money with this new trick.
Exactly and why on this vol spike and not the last? I think this chart illustrates the point TD was making
http://www.cboe.idmanagedsolutions.com/charts/new/advanced/advanced.char...
Are IMG links to external domains not allowed on the comment board?
All these margin hikes presuppose the people actually borrowing money from the Fed at 0% to speculate, because there is no Volcker Rule, actually give a crap about margin requirements.
So if the Comet hits the Comex, Bingo!
Im starting to wonder if there will be a movement to other stable exchanges. Multi Commodity Exchange in India comes to mind.
Trading can be done in other countries. Something has to give. Either Hedge funds wil fold or the big banks will. So far it looks like the hedge funds will be sacrificed.
Its coming to the point where my jaded, "im-not-suprised" atitutde, no longer contains the level of obvious impending doom months away. I now verbalize "holy shit" almost evertime i check ZH. Something has got to give is absolutely god damn right.
The rising of the Mississippi is shutting down refineries. The feds, through their toadies are decreasing the incentive to bring in more fuel from the rest of the world, or to put less profitable equipment on line. Hurricane season is coming. Methinks I see the perfect storm. Frankly I prefer expensive fuel to no fuel.
In 2008 there were 5 hurricanes that hit the gulf coast, closing refineries, and pipelines. That fall, long after the storms, and the $147 oil spike, Fuel began to run out in the areas that are fed by the Colonial Pipeline along the southeastern atlantic coast. The rest of the country took little notice, perhaps by governmental design, but in the Charlotte area fuel again went above the $4 mark, and much worse, became hard to find. If you saw a station with gas available, and you had less than 3/4 of a tank, or less, you were wise to fill up. Jetty cans were in short supply. You couldn't be sure you could find gas, so if you were running low, you just went home. As you can imagine this was screwing with the bottom line at restaurants, clothing stores, entertainment venues etc. People were staying home to make sure they could get to, and from work the next day.
The whole thing showed me just how close to the margin, and inflexible the energy markets are. Despite months of lead time, gasoline couldn't, or wasn't brought in from the coast, or ovet the mountains, to avoid the shortage. Are there no tanker cars any more?
If shortages occur you know we'll hear from Barry Soeterro saying big oil private market failed, time to nationalize them so everyone gets gas. He might even get some cheers.
Ive emptied my Olympic sized swimming pool and am awaiting 70 bucks a barrel to load up.
CME, that's in Chicago, innit?
HOLY CRAP!!! They aren't going for the full-on price controls, rather they are doing it by attacking the margins. Sure, they like to blame speculators, but all speculators do is speed up the process of an asset reaching its equilibrium price (for any given time).
The CME and the gov are essentially trying to stall the market clearing price mechanism by taking out those that bring that price into view quicker. They are doing a roundabout price ceiling control. This means that all assets affected by this maneuver will necessarily see shortages in the less-distant future, thus causing even greater market demand for those assets. Depending upon what circumstances are when this less-distant future comes, it can either exacerbate the shortage, or market forces become far too strong and cause a parabolic increase in prices in order to match the demand (this parabolic motion is not to be confused with highly-leveraged movement).
Something tells me that this is not the only tool that they have in their shed, and that the other tools will be coming out in the next few weeks and months. I honestly don't think they will be able to get more than maybe 6-12 months out of it before the market simply runs over their efforts, or a black-market takes hold.
Are they really this F-ing stupid? Ok, maybe I shouldn't ask that...
well ... that's a good one, right there!
no need for commedy tonight! ....
Comedy, indeed. But, the part is played by you.
There aren't only buyers in a market, there are also sellers. If a "speculator" purchases a good in hopes of an increase in its actual money price, then most assuredly there is a "speculating" seller that also has the same level of anticipation, but that the seller's anticipation is that the price will decrease. The mere engagement of this activity of both the sellers and buyers renders the demand curves to be ever more elastic. As any economist knows, the greater the elasticity of the demand curve given a particular supply, the closer to the equilibrium price an asset is.
Sure, the equilibrium price is only held instantaneously, and will then move onto a new equilibrium price. But, the economic truth that speculators speed up the process of an asset reaching its equilibrium price still stands. Speculators do not only exist in the buying market, they also exist in the selling market; if this were not true then such exchanges would not exist. And, since these buyers and sellers (both speculators) create greater elasticity in the demand curve of any particular asset, then it must necessarily follow that their efforts must decrease the time of an asset reaching an equilibrium price at any given moment.
Understanding this concept is the entire reason that I categorized this particular movement in commodities as a consolidation rather than a correction (if you don't know the difference then you're beyond help). Volatility will come into play, but institutional and governmental efforts must never be discounted; the current escapade in financial and monetary markets suites as a fantastic example (government always blames "scapegoat" speculation while it thrusts its influence and power into markets, while it is also the cause of cheap credit and low interest). However, the trend and the fundamental basis on which the current economy stands cannot be gamed, it can only be nudged, prodded and poked. You cannot wish away trillions of currency injections worldwide, nor erase debt valuations upon accountancy-rule changes (i.e accounting fiction). Eventually, real valuations of real goods comes into play, and those are far more powerful than arbitrary numbers on a T-account, and speculation is the heart and soul of it; all actions in life are merely a speculation of the future (the more of it there is, the more stability there is of a particular price in time). The greater the elasticity of demand, the smaller the margin.
I take it that you're ignorant of economics. You don't need to tell me, you've already shown as much.
Did anyone else notice the spread has been at .20 cents for days? I have not seen the spread change since the big takedown, this is not normal.
Memo to CREEP: Committee to RE-Elect the President
Why doesn't Obama Bin Lyin' just go the front door???
Wage and price control like his mentors One-Term Carter and Dick "Well, I'm NOT a crook" Nixon...
OMG! Can some kind person just direct me to the nearest hole leading to Wonderland?
Where's McBags when you need him?
the comex is a nightmare.. i wonder why producers don't run their own commodity exchanges. the comex is a middleman.. do producers really need to use a third party to sell their commodities ? manufacturers can buy direct from the miners. investors can buy direct from the mines.. why do we need all the corruption from the middleman ? why is the tail wagging the dog ?
I have to say this thread is quality! Lots of good discussion here. I agree with WSWARRIOR, TYLER, MATHMAN, and ROBO. Also some others make some good points. We can not all be right. Like any trade, someone will be on the wrong side. Politics rules the day. Commodities have to come down. Obummer can't get re-elected if they don't. Warrior says all the money will come home. I say if that happens hyperinflation will ensue. That is the only way I see that happening. Mathman agrees with Warrior. Again hyperinflation ensues. Tyler says the margin hikes are long over due. Yes they are! Along with many other things that should have happend and have yet to happen.
Robo's post is the clincher for me. Driving the 10 yr back to 2% and allowing the treasury to borrow infinite amounts of cash while the Fed monitizes the debt is the only way to continue the ponzi.
Before Robo is proven correct the dollar will rise in a crazy manner. Stocks will tumble, commodities already in the toilet, US debt will rocket skyward (thanks to QE3). My guess is the Dollar reverses course. Plummets as the Fed monetizes the debt. The energy complex and PM's start to rise. Then all the cash hits the system from all the rebuilding of factorys and recreation of jobs in the US.
What will PM's be worth as a trade for something of value? Something that will preserve wealth, and life?
I don't know. That is why I will not end with BTFD! But I will personally BTFD! To each his own!
"CME goes full retard"
-perfection