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And We Are Not Done

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By Nic Lenoir of ICAP

A quick look at these charts says that unless this is yet another fake H&S which will get squeezed in no volume tomorrow, we have more to go. The previous times though we had divergence as we were triggering the patterns: not this time. Clean H&S break on the Nikkei future and Nasdaq future. Similar pattern on the S&P (though downward sloping neckline) and the Elliott Wave count indicates that whether this is a full bearish impulse from the highs or just an A-B-C correction, the 3/ or C wave is not completed for sure. Looking closely at the sub-structure for AUDUSD confirm our impressions. We see intermediary target at 1,934 for the Nasdaq future and 1,143 for the S&P future, but the key medium term support for the S&P future is currently at 1,114.

For AUDUSD focus on the 200-dma support. A break below on a daily close and we risk to retest 0.8562 which if broken sets up for a double top on the highs...

Another currency I like to short is the ZAR (post world cup infrastructure effect), and it seems it decided not to wait for the kick-off. Eskom posted very ugly earnings today, which added to the pressure on ZAR in addition to the general weakness of all emerging currencies. We have triggered and inverted H&S in USDZAR and TRYZAR has been moving dangerously close to the 200-dma which has been a perfect envelope. Ideally buy TRYZAR between 4.90 and 4.85, but if the 200-dma is broken on a daily close we would load up anyways and ride the trend.

Good luck trading,

Nic

 

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Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:51 | 331497 Psquared
Psquared's picture

You mean BB and Co. cannot bailout the entire world? I'm going long printing presses. Who makes those things anyway?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 17:05 | 331523 moldygoat
moldygoat's picture

Heidelberg is one co. Not sure if they make presses for fiatso's

 

http://www.heidelberg.com/www/html/en/startpage

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 17:23 | 331555 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Also consider going long debt counters.  I imagine they will all need to be replaced with ones which use mor significant digits.

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 01:28 | 332051 LiquidBrick
LiquidBrick's picture

Germany makes the best (Heidelbergs). Go figure.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:54 | 331502 qp
qp's picture

Did HarryWanker buy the dip? LOL

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 18:13 | 331634 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

It was indeed a glorious day... and as I've said before I am happy to have Johnny Bravo on the other side of my trade. lol

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 09:45 | 332403 Johnny Bravo
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I'm bearish on gold, and bearish on stocks, first to 1153 and then possibly 1111.  I haven't made any other predictions otherwise.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:55 | 331503 Captain Obviousness
Captain Obviousness's picture

"Unless it goes up tomorrow, it will likely go down tomorrow."  I concur 100%.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:56 | 331505 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

I'm going long the company that manufactures the paper that says "we're a US Treasury" myself.  In other words whatever you say don't forget to add, "or not" to it because this is beyond not even me but you, too and the least you could do is start being "honest" about that.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 17:09 | 331532 I need more asshats
I need more asshats's picture

Cock-a-doodle-doo

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 17:10 | 331537 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

OK Nic, What's your favorite short?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 22:23 | 331912 Orly
Orly's picture

It seems clear he meant that in a couple of weeks, it will be the Australian Dollar.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 17:14 | 331546 Double down
Double down's picture

Phew, I am so glad noone is really looking at the CAD.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 17:28 | 331570 Truth
Truth's picture

Agreed.  More du-du short term (112 on the SPY) then the right shoulder-esque pattern may form with a surge on the S&P to 1200 by/around late June....then ka-pow ('you've sunk my battle ship'), multi-month head and shoulder pattern will appear then bye-bye.....

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 18:08 | 331630 Psquared
Psquared's picture

A mysterious amount of "good news" will leak out tonight now that the SEC and GS have agreed to settle. By morning futures will be up big as prop desk secures its third leg.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 18:16 | 331638 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

We did manage to hold right around that 1175 support area. I did not add SPY but will consider SSO if we hit that top from January at 1150 area. Don't think it'll get there though. Actually, I'd be very shocked if we fell back that far.

BTW: Was trying to post earlier and it kept saying I was blocked. 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 18:46 | 331682 geminiRX
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Your posts are confusing most computers as well... that probably explains the error

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 20:50 | 331824 Cognitive Dissonance
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"BTW: Was trying to post earlier and it kept saying I was blocked." 

Clear your browser cache and reset your Internet modem.

In fact, just leave the modem in the off position.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 21:08 | 331837 sysin3
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+3

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 21:11 | 331843 Missing_Link
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"Close" only counts in horseshoes, Harry.  You said it would hold at 1175, and regain the lost ground by the end of the day.  It did neither of those things.

Before you go and "buy on the dip," I recommend checking to make sure the dip is truly over.  I don't believe this one is.

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 00:43 | 332027 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

+100.  Especially in the markets.  Support is support.  When it breaks, its not support anymore, its resistance.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 18:33 | 331666 Doji
Doji's picture

1165 is the 50 day ma on the es. I noticed we bounced off that level on volume twice today. I could see the ADP payrolls number coming out bullish tomorrow and the market once again evaporating the draw down. Otherwise look out below!

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 02:06 | 332065 idoubtit
idoubtit's picture

Maybe.  But I think sentiment on the market has changed enough that even with a positive number ADP we might still go down.  How far we go I don't know yet but the overall "feel" has changed.  Goldman in the courts, Greece, China tightening.  Prechter's time may have come.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 19:00 | 331678 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Everyone seems to have different ideas of support levels. I think those people who are calling for the S&P to rise again had just better hope this crisis in Europe is indeed contained....because if it isn't, there is a massive shitstorm on the horizon. Credit markets could freeze up faster than you can say "lehman". 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 19:17 | 331731 whacked
whacked's picture

I read a lot of TA's and other sites to get a perspective on the markets ... even if Europe still has problems and then teh UK and then the US the simple fact of the matter is that it is a 50/50 split .. for my mind bears beware

 

http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 22:15 | 331905 Hunch Trader
Hunch Trader's picture

Systemic eurozone problems are positive for SPX; TLT is more risky than SPY in this climate.

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 00:36 | 332019 geminiRX
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A lack of access for corporations to borrow money in a frozen credit market like we saw in 2008 was devastating to the economy.

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 00:45 | 332029 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

'hope this crisis in Europe is indeed contained' - good one, thanks!  Yes, everybody might suddenly recall the whole Lehman situation in a big hurry in the next few months.

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 09:43 | 332396 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

What are you talking about?  I'm bearish on the market (told you guys we'd go negative at 1220-1228 in that poll) and I'm bearish on gold too, which is also pretty much flat since the last time I've logged in, but is in a downtrend at the moment as well.

Gold is in a bubble just like stocks were in their bubble.  Everyone thought I was full of shit when I said to be bearish in the "blow off top" pattern, and then it happened.  It looks like the head and shoulders actually came out this time.  Most of the time it just fakes people out and goes higher.

I have targets of 1153 and 1111 on the S&P.  Anything else you say about "my trading" isn't true.  Oh, and you're gay.

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