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And Whoosh

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As we suggested earlier, there would be virtually no trading volume at all today, and any moves would be driven purely by the deltas. And following the close the fireworks would follows. Sure enough, here's the whoosh immediately following the start of the AH session.

 

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Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:24 | 813941 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

Thank you sir....may I have another!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 23:57 | 814884 fellatio is not...
fellatio is not fattening's picture

testing new login

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:28 | 813954 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

I went long SRS at $19.90 just before the close. I thought I was seeing things after hours. Thank you zero hedge for the story about the QE2 failure / banks being forced into Treasuries.  It looks to me like IYR is slightly ahead of the market and will be leading the plunge.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:29 | 813958 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

When the levy breaks.....

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:55 | 814153 Iam Rich
Iam Rich's picture

I've had my eye there also (IYR), since it broke down from the gigantanormous rising wedge about a month ago.  Can't seem to get it's feet.  Tempted to SRS but am liking silver a little more atm.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:32 | 813955 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

WTF?  'The market' took SLW down, and silver had a great day!  And if I was going to guess, well, that really helped any Asian silver buyers.  :)

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:36 | 813977 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

Just posted this...look at AKAM also.  No such thing as market manipulation.??

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=AKAM:US 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SLW:US

What a bunch of shit.

 

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:39 | 813985 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

President's Working Group on Financial Markets were in full effect all day today.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:56 | 814033 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

Looks more like the handywork of the Expiration Action Team-Market Experts aka EAT-ME. 

I may be mistaken but I swear that I heard someone on a trading desk say that "If anyone has a problem with what we did they can take it up with the SEC and EAT-ME"...or something to that effect. 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:07 | 814182 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

+1
Still laughing.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:22 | 814218 Cdad
Cdad's picture

+2

lololololol

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:24 | 814224 Logans_Run
Logans_Run's picture

Or it could have been the Random Action Manipulation and Experts Mongers, aka RAM'EM

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:46 | 814012 flacon
flacon's picture

They also took Silver Standard Resources down:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SSO.TO+Interactive#symbol=SSO.TO;range=1d

 

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:40 | 814127 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

"least worst" is Hecla = HL, and I think best up-side; SLW over-priced (imo). HL pretty much tracks AGQ, with sling-shot on the up-moves, as you'd expect with any stock; leave the down-sides open to speculation.....

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:53 | 814148 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

HL is nice stock... A solid buy-and-hold is their B preferreds, yield about 6% and they have a mandatory conversion. Made an absolute fucking killing on the C class preferreds that convert Jan 1, 2011. In at 58, now at 102, will convert to ~10 shares each and picked up two 1.87 dividends...

Impact Silver IPT.TO is a very nice and quiet silver miner, trades thinly on the pinks here though. Excellent properties. SLX.TO has the potential to be a monster based on their known resource base.

A real speculative play is KS.TO, amassing some very nice properties (1400 g/T Ag) in the Yukon. Same management  that made Placer Dome into a monster. Ask an old rock hound about Placer....

A new listing on the NYSE, AG, is interesting play, pricey, vertically integrated, you can buy silver rounds at their website. If they do a secondary, it may be worth nibbling.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:22 | 814558 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Check the PE on those, I think you might discover that some are more 'pricey' than others.

 

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 01:07 | 814990 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

   Yes, but PE is the last indicator you look at. Resource base, production, cost per oz, hedging, debt, political risk.  At some level E matters. SLW is rich, it will pull back, looking to accumalate in the low 30s... Or buy now and sell a Jan 12 45 call to go with it.

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 15:35 | 815698 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

All appreciated, but be careful not to confuse  banks that like to call themselves 'silver producers' with actual  mining companies that have their focus on Ag; that's a pretty small club. JMHO

Regards

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 16:25 | 815763 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  No argument here... remember the old adage, there is no such thing a silver mine. It is high grade Pb-Zn ores that carry the freight, Ag is the gravy. That being said there are some miners that can now live off the silver (if they didn't foolishly hedge) and can stockpile Pb and Zn.

 Based on my research, the safest "silver" major is PAAS. The main reason is the diversification of producing properties and size of resource base. It is still "cheap", the capitalization is about $3.80 per oz of Ag in situ. Their problem is making money as their ore grades are nothing special, average of 118 g/t.  Compared with SilverCorp SVM.TO, which is valued at $9.89 per oz in-situ but with an average grade of 255 g/t.

Ultimately, it is all about moving rock....

 

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:32 | 814242 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

Also BVN, IAG and others

Up: EGO, KGC and others

Guess OE games

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:34 | 814253 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yes, but we are discussing miners with Silver exposure.... :)

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:07 | 814059 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

...bearing in mind SLW sells silver produced as a by product....my pure silver plays were  all up nicely today...maybe someone is scared SLW may have less silver if demand for copper (for example) declines (ditto lead and zinc, also associated metals).

I have avoided SLW because of my concern that they could get crushed in a worldwide depression since the primary metal demand would fall causing their supply of the by metal silver to also disappear.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:38 | 814122 flacon
flacon's picture

But isn't silver, "money" (argent)?

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:58 | 814157 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  SLW is rich at these levels. You understand their business model better than most. They do not produce Ag, but have the concession from a base metal mine. Junior Base metal producers have financed the mine infrastructure by selling the Ag rights to SLW. Best way to play is covered call strategies, use the vol. to your advantage.

 

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:11 | 814069 honestann
honestann's picture

Appropriate response:  back up the truck and buy more!

SLW is a big winner for me... and will continue to be.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:33 | 814110 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Whoa, easy there, it was still up on the day at 37. When I saw your post I freaked and went to look at a chart. That one has been one of the few equities I bought and held (since $12). I expected to see it down to 25 or something after reading this.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:38 | 814120 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Even a gold junior like International Tower Hill ITH got murdered at the close, wtf?

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:40 | 814125 flacon
flacon's picture

It is strange, considering Monday is DOUBLE POMO day.... 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:53 | 814299 nachtliche
nachtliche's picture

Wow that is outrageous. Glad I rolled my SLW calls. They just ripped a bunch of people off at op exp. I noticed everyday the past 3 days, US markets have been trying to push down PM in early trading, but they can't keep the price down. They can't stop the rest of the world from buying on any dips.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 23:55 | 814882 jtb14
jtb14's picture

Do you think slw. will survive the currency collapse?? Im making a shortlist of stocks I'd keep or buy for a bargain. So far its PSLV.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:33 | 813971 mberry8870
mberry8870's picture

What will also be interesting is the effect of Dodd/Frank on collateral requirements for derivatives. Forcing everybody to buy the ever increasing debt of our government.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:37 | 813981 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

That looks like shit.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:41 | 813986 99er
99er's picture

ES

Merry Christmas!

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/es_8233.html

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/

That's all for the year folks. Enjoy the holidays.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:45 | 814009 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

So the futures closed down... interesting... Do you have any further insight? Was an important level rejected?

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 15:21 | 814084 99er
99er's picture

Prices had been moving up within the rising channel (in blue) but have recently stalled and for a time were outside of the channel. During this period there were early indications that a possible new channel--down (in purple)--might develop. In today's trading, prices appeared to first re-enter the upward channel but at the end of the day, fell back outside. This is a failure to recapture that rising trend and may indicate that the down channel may indeed be the start of a new trend.

From an Elliott Wave perspective (and I'm new to this), one possible count for the price action today could have us just completing an A-B-C up to (ii) of a five-wave down.

Finally, for fans of chart patterns, there is a potential Diamond Top that has just been completed.

http://thepatternsite.com/diamondt.html

Happy Holidays!

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:53 | 813987 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Hey, but the recovery is on and stocks are historically cheap and profits are kick ass and L. Blankfein is IN DA HOUSE and P/Es are expanding and car sales are ROCKIN' and burritos are cheap and The Bernank is bitch slappin' the currency down and exports are going to double and the tax [whatever] just passed and the tax [whatever] will save or create millions of jobs...ummm...even though it is...ten years old...

But never mind about that because there is UnicornDew freakin' EVERYWHERE and the PixieDust is going cheap these days...[ummm...actually PixieDust is ramping like freakin' corn]....

But never mind about that because Wiki is leaking...about BoA...

But never mind about that because the mirror ball in the lounge at the Roach Motel [SPY] was blinkin' and kickin' and the VIX says that risk is FREE and the drinks are all on the tax payer [aka you]....ummmm....

So COME ON AVERAGE JOE...time to write that paper check that comes with ye ole' credit card bill and slap that bad boy down on BLACK or RED.  Time to buy stocks.  Who needs food anyway?

CASINO TIME!  LET's RUMBA...AND BUY THE DIP!!!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:42 | 814612 billhilly
billhilly's picture

Either you are writing this from the Christmas party or you REALLY need to check into buying some decaf....

LMAO though!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:40 | 813992 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

It's a dip. BUY IT QUICK! GO GO GO!!1!!one

I suck at this. I'm going to go eat some lunch.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:53 | 814027 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

'Buy the fucking dip, you fucking idiot'  [still laughing from that one..]

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:13 | 814071 dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

too late, already went back up

for a moment there i thought the 3/10 percent plunge meant the sky was falling and i hesitated

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:41 | 814606 ThirdEye
ThirdEye's picture

Here you go, Buy the fucking dip II

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQvPV68lggg

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:42 | 813995 obamaphobe
obamaphobe's picture

the machines misfired on  msft on close as well

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 20:30 | 814386 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

But you can't even buy a piece of shit plastic xbox controller for $150 bucks because their is so much demand and there just isn't enough labor on the planet to make enough supply. And their was he media splash on halo reach around and the media splash on the fucktard controller making big deals out of it's initial sales. AS they desperately try to make trends and attention whore.

They want massive 3d tv sales and they can't even get people with tube tv's to turn them on and watch their garbage.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:45 | 814011 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

It looks so beautiful....

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:51 | 814022 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Wait until Monday--some fucking convoluted, utterly fabricated BS will be trotted out over the weekend (just in time to gun Asia), and the US will open strong, fade, eke out a green close, etc forever and ever, amen...

Groundhog Day, bitches!!!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:54 | 814029 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Yep, only fun to be had is in the after hours.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:17 | 814080 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

You nailed it. But, this curtain gets thinner and thinner every market day that they unfurl it over the rotting corpse of the captial markets to hide the evidence. Most everyone refreshes themselves at this ridiculous, gassamer-thin facade each day and happily places their heads back into their orifice of choice, after seeing that the Dow isn't careening downward for some unknown reason. However, just like duplicating cassette tapes, each generation loses fidelity and eventually the whole mess begins to stink so bad that it can no longer be hidden...

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:28 | 814100 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Hugh,

Exactly.  Well said.  From the thin facade to the rising stink...I get every bit of that.

Well said, Hugh.

Cdad

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:01 | 814047 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

usatoday sez BUY NOW!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:10 | 814067 Helix6
Helix6's picture

Which is to say... sell as soon as the Lemming Run starts to taper...

And remember it's better to be a week early than a minute late...

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 01:13 | 815003 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

"And remember it's better to be a week early than a minute late..."

Helix6 epitaph

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:20 | 814085 Kyron95131
Kyron95131's picture

lol @ usatoday

i used to use that for toilet paper till it started giving me a rash

which ironically turned out the be the first time i tried using it.. for toilet paper..

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:22 | 814087 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

I went nuts today and on the dip I bought a cup of coffee and a cinnamon roll. Big coffee too. And the roll was like the size of a dinner plate. That was a big move for me.

I'd be heavy in the market right there, except then I ate them.

My investments never work out. I buy the fucking dip like they told me to, and I end up with crumbs. I don't understand it. I'm doing something wrong but I can't figure it out.

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 20:36 | 814408 Simon Endean
Simon Endean's picture

Well, according to fictional character Dr. John Zoidberg, "the sandwich heavy portfolio pays off for the conservative investor."

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:06 | 814055 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

Someone had stated earlier regarding the sharp rise in 10Y yields that they couldn't wait to see how this would be spun.  Well, here it is: 

"One sign of economic optimism is surging interest rates on long-term Treasuries. During the first 10 trading days of December, the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose from 2.8 percent to almost 3.5 percent. It has been nine years since yields rose that much over so short a time. Then markets were beginning to suspect the 2001 recession was ending, as it was. Markets now seem to expect a much better recovery next year than we saw this year." -NY Times

See how "it's all good for stocks."  Hey no wonder Bill Gross is piling in. 

Time to call it a day.  I do believe I have seen it all now, and certainly all the bullshit I can take for today.

Happy weekend ZH

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:07 | 814057 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

You haven't seen the worst: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-17/stocks-rising-17-since-bernanke...

Caroline is a clueless bitch.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:24 | 814091 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

PU(PUKE)KE!!!   That's a puke within a puke while I was typing "puke." 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:13 | 814070 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

...there are no clouds just a plethora of silver linings.

That same writer you quoted also looks at inventory builds as a sign everyone is quite confident...not a sign that nothing is selling through....back in the dark ages when I was just learning about the market we considered inventory builds as being not a very good sign....I guess the facts have not changed, but the spinmeisters and their incredulous audience have.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:20 | 814212 Rainman
Rainman's picture

All are worthy of a hat tip from Pravda.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:18 | 814081 Cdad
Cdad's picture

No, seriously for a moment,

Is anyone picking up the twisted logic about how, if rates first go back down and then come back up for the "right reasons" thing will be sweet stuff on the FAST MONEY BLOW HORN right now?

It is so, so clear that pretzel logic has these dupes at The Blow Horn so hornswoggled that even they do not understand what they are saying anymore.

You got long term rates RAMPING INTO $13 Trillion IN FED DEBT...and these morons are steadfast permabulls.  Do I have that right?  And if "BEEKS" can just sweet talk the 30 year down for a week or so....it's all good?  OMG!

Okay...we now resume normal cdad complete insanity programing.....hooooooooooooooootinany!

Rock on ZH dudes!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:37 | 814118 traderjoe
Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:23 | 814089 dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

a lot of people act like they've never seen quadruple witching before

and index rebalancing to boot

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:28 | 814099 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

----

this site is awesome...the comments are as informative as the articles

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:38 | 814119 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

But some people have weird avatars... ;)

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 20:17 | 814357 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Dan, you look familiar....

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:30 | 814103 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Same correlations.

ES gets blowtorched, gold stocks sell off 3x faster.

I think the XAU probably bottomed today, I'd assign a 70% probability that the lows are in.

So the end of the day was merely a "shakedown" for both GDX and SPY.

We'll probably blast off on Monday once the PBoC "RRR" jitters are over with.

Pretty low risk buying opportunities right now on GDX and FXI today.

Meanwhile, retail stocks are totally unfazed by this kind of nonsense.

We'll know Sunday night if Asia goes into party mode....

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:20 | 814214 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

What the devil is that -- creeping toward the young lady, from the lower right of the frame? A one-eyed monster of some undetermined Asian species.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:48 | 814626 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It's a rape tentacle. They are all over Japan.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:57 | 814306 ExploitTheMarket
ExploitTheMarket's picture

Looks like Reon Kadena--one of Japans finest! MOAR Japanese gravure idols please Robo!!! (oh yeah the charts & commentary are cool too).

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:42 | 814613 bbtrader
bbtrader's picture

FXI had better rally because right now it's broken its trendline.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXI&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97154335868&...

She's cute, way better than that Betty Liu dog on Bloomberg.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 22:33 | 814713 bbtrader
bbtrader's picture

I'm starting to realize that RoboT charts are contrarian - better to sell XRT because it's pretty overbought and running out of steam.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XRT&p=W&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p09558162784&...

She is really cute, I just had to get another look at that pretty smile.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:39 | 814123 almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

Asia IS in party mode !

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:39 | 814126 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Hard to believe Eric King's "Endgame" references about the state of the economy and the financial markets.

Right now, the most economically sensitive stocks are still gunning towards highs.

And example is RTI, which manufactures titanium...

Nice move today.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:42 | 814130 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

And, by the way, for all you short sellers...

The Cyclical Index made a new, weekly, 2-year, closing high today.

How about that??

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:15 | 814206 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

Whoa... Santa, I want Sanja for Christmas!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:27 | 814232 Rainman
Rainman's picture

...one on the right or one on the left or both ?? Sincerely, Santa

Sun, 12/26/2010 - 21:05 | 831037 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

Dammit I missed your offer Santa. But for next year, the one with the HUGE bouncing, perfectly bouncing yammers. Thank You!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:58 | 814310 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

So the cyclical recovered but unemployment stays high.  Looks like the damage is structural, time to raise rates.  WHat was that?  Bernanke can't afford to raise rates due to debt interest?

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:32 | 814585 bbtrader
bbtrader's picture

I'll sell it high next week.

Do you buy high?

Sun, 12/26/2010 - 21:06 | 831039 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

5 junks!? Either we have 5 homosexuals on this thread or we have some REALLY dull and seriously boring members! the fuck?

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:06 | 814145 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Robo,

Thanks for posting the sweet charts.  I really like this one because of the pattern it reveals...how the thing...whatever it is...the ATI...it spikes like a monkey on crack [like in May..and again in Nov]...and then....whoosh. 

Hey....that is the title of the article for this thread...."Whoosh."  Coincidence?  I don't think so.

But I mean it, Robo.  Thanks for the charts.  On the whole booby thing...maybe you should talk to someone about that or something because I don't immediately get the connection between stock charts and breasts....but what do I know?

Cdad

 

Additional:

And Robo, referring to the XRT is probably unwise...because I'm pretty sure someone within that whole "enterprise" is probably going to have some splainin to do because, as I understand it in my limited capacity...there are more shares of XRT sold short than actually exist...or so I've been told.  Listen, I'm sure there is someone out there who can explain to the rest of the world how that is cool, fine, no problemo...but...I'm just recommending that you AVOID ANY ASSOCIATION WITH THE XRT UNTIL AFTER THE "VISITORS" HAVE COME AND GONE ;)

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 20:42 | 814426 chubbar
chubbar's picture

There's always room for jello! In other words, no connection between boobys and charts, but boobys go with anything and they aren't filling! Keep em coming!

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 01:13 | 815005 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Yeah, I'm looking forward to gettin' a bust in the mouth, manana! :>D

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:59 | 814158 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Robot,

Here's the latest news on AEM. Why you hate this stock is remarkable. 

Toronto-based Agnico-Eagle announced Wednesday they will increase their 2011 cash dividend by 255% or USD 16-cents.

The company also announced its payable gold production for the next five years, beginning with an 18% increase in payable gold production ranging from 1.13 million to 1.23 million gold ounces for 2011. Total cash costs per ounces in 2011 are expected to be in the range of $420 to $470/oz.

For the years 2012 through 2015, Agnico-Eagle expects to produce an average of 1.36 million ounces of gold annually at total cash costs averaging $432 per ounce. Payable gold production is expected to increase to 1.5 million ounces by 2014.

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:11 | 814195 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I don't hate AEM at all.

It just got overextended, and the "gold to 'da moon" types were bandwagoning this stock big time until they got shanked.

As usual, tons of margin was used, because the gold stock crowd is by far the biggest "get rich quick" group I've ever seen, so it is no surprise that they got hosed.

I'd rather buy a stock like EGO or IAG (which I bought today), which has a more constructive base and hasn't already gone parabolic..

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:19 | 814210 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  Hey Robo!

    I'll ask you again, plot a chart of FRG. If you do, I will gladly add a commentary on the company fundamentals....

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 20:16 | 814355 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Very nice looking chart but a bit overpriced in my opinion for their documented ounces.  Of course one can make the argument that drill hole results will make up for those lack of ounces in the near future.  There are still a handful of overlooked companies with big ounces in the ground but passed up for others.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 20:41 | 814423 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 01:04 | 814965 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Thank you!

  The stock has run and my estimation is that it will do a secondary soon. Buy on weakness.

Why is FRG is best junior gold play currently? It is all about quality of ore. Once they were a minor company that acquired the Michelin Uranium play in Quebec for $80 million. Then they started finding gold in Nevada, bonanza grades, 6-12 g/t, 11-17 m thicknesses in Long Canyon. The out of date NI-43-101 data does not reflect the ounces they have. Check the news over the past 6-12 months. Management is sharp, today they announced  that the spun off the Uranium play for $260 million in shares of PDN.TO.

Production will come on line in 2 years or so. Initial tests of head grade for the open pit assay at 6 g/t and significant Ag (320 g/t?) They have close ties with NEM and could be a takeover candidate. Excellent balance sheet, management appears to want to do it alone. I think they still have $260 million in cash and some middling assets in Turkey that they are spinning off. The are making modest profits with no production to date.

 I have owned shares since early 08 when it came across my radar and loaded up (5000 shares) when it (along with all the juniors) got hammered in oct 08. I have no intention to sell anytime soon. 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 20:03 | 814316 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Personally I focus on miners with market caps less than $5B since those have the most potential for explosive moves.  Within this category there are those that are speculative to those that are proven producers.  The two stocks you listed have been relatively flat-lined since September while most of the ones I track have doubled.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 20:19 | 814359 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Agree, the bigger, well-known gold stocks underperform relative to the more junior producers and explorers, and the bigger ones are a lot more volatile too.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 23:59 | 814889 jtb14
jtb14's picture

NWI or TVI???

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 00:51 | 814968 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  I like TVI, snarfed 10,000 shares at 0.10 as an educated flyer. Great fundamentals but smallish resource base. Political risk in the Phillipines.

Find 10 companies like this, the one winner will more than pay for the duds.

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 01:26 | 815026 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Heres the catch, do you want buy a stock that doubled or one that is about to? Producing companies that could double that have lagged, IAG, AUY, GRS. Agreed, AEM aint gonna double.

Here is a list of my 2-baggers over the past year

FRG, IPT.TO, AVR.TO, PTQ.TO, PNP.TO, DNN, PZG, ORV.TO, GWG.TO

with honorable mention to HBM, NWM.TO

Best best for a stock to double?  AMC.TO

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 23:58 | 814885 jtb14
jtb14's picture

Have you looked at Impact Silver? I'd like to know your thoughts on it.

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 01:00 | 814980 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Owned Impact since the summer of 08. Doubled down hard in Nov 08. Great story, mine picked up for a song from a Mexican car dealer ($150,000!?). Huge area staked out in great historic mine district in Mexico. Only 10% has been drilled. Spotty NI 43-101 data, heres the catch though, they were making money before the report that came out recently. Sort like the "Sierra Madre", Assays? assays? We don't need no stinkin' assays.

There are some miners in the region that get production from heap leaching the rock waste from 100 years ago (eg: 200 g/t, NWM) Impact makes money, simple as that and no debt. A sleeper and a keeper.

 

 

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 01:57 | 815076 jtb14
jtb14's picture

Yah I like IPT. Ive made decent gains but I think I am going to hold it for a while. I like juniors that made money even when the silver price was low. 

I sold Arian a bit early and I am kicking myself... I think I am going to purchase tvi sometime in the next week as my stink bid didn't hit. AMC is now on the watch list. Are there any stocks that you would consider keeping even if the stock market took a dive. I am thinking the senior minors like CDE PAAS could be quite the bargain if you time it right.

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 02:42 | 815113 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Re: IPT, Bingo, spot the ones that turned a profit when Ag was $12-15...

I am pretty patient with my plays. I hedge downturns on the seniors by selling calls. SLW would be one of the first I would dump if the shit started hitting the fan. I would tend to dump the juniors and the explorers, they can be snarfed up after. Consider buying SLW and selling the Jan 12 45 calls. 

I own about 25 different TSXV stocks. I like to diversify and on a 2 bagger or so, I tend to sell half. Therefore a lot of shares I have are now free.

    AMC is one where  I am placing my chips, accumulated 150,000 shares between .13 and .19, held tight when it went to .27. I think there is more in store, target is 0.70 in 18 months. Like I said, I am patient.

KS.TO is another one that I try to pick up on stink bids. Dig deep and you will see why I like the company.

-----

I reposted this as it got lost in last nights downtime.....

 I "trade" GDX.  Over the past 2 years I have traded well over $2.5 million worth of shares along with at least 200 options either as spreads or covered calls.

There are 2 ways to play GDX

1) 50% of your desired exposure with a short dated covered call near or at the money (compute the premium+strike, it should be 2.5 to 3% upside for 30 days)The other 50% of your desired exposure with a long dated out of the money strike (6-12 months) with a 30-40% upside. When/if your shares are called at the lower strike reenter a similar position. Once your long dated short call is at ~50% of the value, cover it.

2) Buy long dated call spreads: for example today I opened the following position

Bought 5 Jan 12 55 strike calls

Sold 5 Jan 12 65 strike calls

Net cost of 4.40 per contract, GDX was trading at 59.80 at the time. My breakeven is 59.40.  If the market moves against me I may close out the 65s and wait. Or I just might sit, all depends.

Imagine now that you have spreads like this for 6 expiration dates into the future. It is a nice way to play the game. I know that I wont hit homeruns, but I ain't trying to. I trade my own nut, I want steady "income" and moderate volatility. My risk is very well defined.

Ciao for niao

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 03:03 | 815167 jtb14
jtb14's picture

Thats a system that I'll make sure to test out. Thanks. Our buddy KS, wouldn't the upcoming event make it a long term play only. Ive been hurt by *c's* before but that move makes sense for LT health. AMC looks good. I have some powder sitting in Soho that I'll swap for it.

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 01:13 | 815002 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  AEM great company, but compute what you are paying per oz of gold. Fully priced, AUY would be a $75 stock at the same valution.

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 02:40 | 815148 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Gold/XAU at 6.28. Has never come down below 5 since 2008. Miners are seriously lagging until we see somewhat normal levels again. Why this is I have no idea, but it's screwed up, that's for sure. 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 20:07 | 814334 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

  "Right now, the most economically sensitive stocks are still gunning towards highs"

   Yeah the stocks are being gunned alright, trouble is has nothing to do with economics... Just like  giggling tits, nice, but not related to economics.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:49 | 814141 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Go team!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:03 | 814173 greenewave
greenewave's picture

The horror of war and MASSIVE political and civil unrest is COMING TO THE UNITED STATES.

Please watch the video “Hero of War” at (http://youtu.be/z0XPqiQM92Q) and see what the MAINSTREAM MEDIA doesn’t want you to see.

-Anonymous

Wow this look like a movie but the truth is that it’s not.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:11 | 814198 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Deja vu. Seems like I've seen this before somewhere!

You make the erroneous assumption that the MSM gives a rat's ass about what I see.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 23:10 | 814783 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Hey dude, what's up with all the gloom?

Don't you remember in 2002 when Argentina had a complete meltdown and total collapse?

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/wideangle/episodes/the-empty-atm/video-full-episode/670/

That link being one that leads to the PBS show "The Empty ATM", in case you were too young to remember it.

Well, ever since then, the MerVal has skied by 14 times off the 250 lows, and the 2008 credit market meltdown shows up as a minor, brief correction.  And now trades at world record highs.

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_merv?lang=en-US&region=US

So, this should be sufficient proof that:

TEN YEARS LATER (after Argentina defaulted on ONE-HUNDRED BILLION
FIATSCOS), and after the "riots in the streets", nothing has changed.

- Same Alpha Thugs in charge.

- Same Pigmen feeding from the trough.

- Same corrupt fiat currency/fractional reserve lending/central banking scheme in place.

- Same sheeple again grazing peacefully.

- And Argentina still borrowing in the international markets--at historically low rates.

So the "Wash, Rinse, Repeat" cycle continues unabated...

Learn it, love it, trade it.

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 23:29 | 814826 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

where you holding some of those bonds they defaulted on, in the local currency ?

Do you own any US debt ?

No inflationist doomer said stocks where a bad investment

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 14:36 | 815605 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Well, they say owning stocks is better than owning the currency, but that you are still going to lose a lot of purchasing power, compared with hard currency (gold in our case, dollars with the case of other countries over the last 100 years).

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:10 | 814187 Gunpowder Plott...
Gunpowder Plotter_Jr.'s picture

i thought that when money is being printed stock market will move higher in dollar terms as value of dollar (& other currencies weakens).  However, in terms of gold it will make new lows.  This was the case in weimar republic inflation times.

 

NO? I am asking this because folks keeps anticipating that market will go down however i thought that it will move higher due to toilet paper being printed in every coutnry.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:44 | 814619 honestann
honestann's picture

Nobody knows exactly for sure... however your take is very likely what happens.  The predators-that-be (government and banking system) want you to lose value on your stock market investments, but make paper gains in depreciated dollars so they can make you pay taxes on your fictitious gains which were really losses.

However, if they world freaks out too much, that could put a strong downdraft on stocks.  As long as Bernanke is in charge of the printing press, however, he will probably print and buy stocks in whatever quantities are required to keep the long term direction of the market upward --- but only in nominal dollar terms.

But the total collapse of the dollar is probably only 1 or 2 years away at this point, and when total chaos breaks loose, and the dollar is spiraling down the toilet at warp 9, who knows what happens with stocks.  However, no matter what happens with stocks --- you do not want to own them.  Why?  Because you must pay taxes on the fake gains in dollars, that's why.  Besides, do you really want to help support the predators-that-be and predator class in the efforts to lie, cheat, steal, defraud and enslave all of mankind?  Really?

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 06:14 | 815252 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

In Jan 2008 spy:gld ratio was around 1.5, currently it's 0.9.  So, you're right, its just $ debasement in action.  So, you're down about 40% if you bought sp500 using gold instead of fiat.  But no one would trade gold for a piece of paper would they?

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:26 | 814229 slingshot
slingshot's picture

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the global financial crisis, bought a $5.5 million condominium in Manhattan, according to public records.

  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-17/nouriel-roubini-purchases-5-5-m...

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:27 | 814231 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

Of course it's all about Delta. What's Delta in this context?

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 20:37 | 814414 max2205
max2205's picture

Silver manipulation? Option strikes were like quicksand today. Damn It!!!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 20:39 | 814418 inkt2002
inkt2002's picture

Tyler, how many of these posts have you made about the AH Friday dump, and the market is up on Monday.  I think it happens 100 percent of the time.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:01 | 814494 Korbin Dallas
Korbin Dallas's picture

More swoonie, less whooshie

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:04 | 814505 Wholeden Caulfield
Wholeden Caulfield's picture

Expiration fuck fuck....SLW options marked to 37.50ish stk.

NG stk gapped up .40 on bell....options priced to lower stk.

Bad marks for a day...$ comes back monday.

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:10 | 814527 SAME AS IT EVER WAS
SAME AS IT EVER WAS's picture

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 22:50 | 814741 Beatscape
Beatscape's picture

I'm waiting for the Wikileaks release of embarrassing info on BAC. That should give the financial sector indigestion for at least a couple of days.

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 01:18 | 815011 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Maybe it will be released on X-Mas.

I'd bet just after the New Year so that people will be hangover free...and other's headaches will just get started.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 23:09 | 814781 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

"More crocodiles, more mud."

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 02:29 | 815129 dcb
dcb's picture

So maybe someone could comment on this, I noticed the split in the market between the dollar,  treasuries, and s and P thought this indicates further weakness. indicates move into these while market goes up.

i JUST PLOTTED S AND p VS. SPY THIS ALMOST ALWAYS IS SPOT ON, EXCEPT TODAY. I have seen this once before and it indacted a big drop. anyone else seen this thing!!!  spy was down about .4 percent, but not market, and spy didn't pass upeer trend line like maket. kind of giving a false signal, wondering how this done

 

 

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 03:08 | 815172 Cdad
Cdad's picture

dcb,

You know, the funny thing about tonight was...that before the close there was definitely some "going's on" at the back door of the Roach Motel [SPY].  I think it had been a pretty sweet time in the lounge there...for most of the day.  The VIX was saying that risk was as FREE as the drinks at the OPEN BAR where syndicate Wall Street bankers had been chucking 'em back, paid for by good ole' Average Joe.  But at the close, there was definitely something going on, roaches scurrying about, and then the AH indicator just went kerplooee, too.

Now I have to say that I don't know much about no historical pattern for roach activity at the Roach Motet [SPY] and how that causes plunges in the index.  Over the past week or so [when I was not holding Ms. Euro's hair back and out of the mess she was making all week upchucking Euro dollars] I have noticed continued deterioration in some underlying stocks...especially stocks that, up until now, have been considered leadership stocks...or what I call stocks priced for stupid...or priced for dot com depending on just how stupid they are priced.

So I tend to believe, in general, that it is a pretty good time to play Whack-a-Mole with specific stocks priced for stupid [or dot com]...while NOT playing Whack-a-Mole with the broader index.  'Cause on that whole "she's gonna blow" thing...well, I have learned that I suck at that. 

I should probably tell you, full disclosure, that I have been writing all day today from the back of my closet under a great big pile of winter coats because I figured FBI guys [who seem to be popping all over the place lately] would never look for me there...because I have a nonconforming outlet in there, you see.  So you should be warned about that, in fairness.

Well, I'd like to know what the index WILL DO NEXT...I really would, and so I'm off to Ebay now.  I figure I may as well shop for a Roach Motel [SPY] Creation Units Machine.  That would be sweet to have one of those...although I sure hope the thing comes with a manual and the original box because, based on what some folk have written about how those things work...OMG.  Harder than captcha math, man.  And I already suck at that, you know?

But good luck out there...and if the spread between the Roach Motel and index correlates to something, you let me know.

cdad

 

 

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 16:47 | 815812 Terra-Firma
Terra-Firma's picture

As much as every fibre of my intellect wants to believe in the idea of a free market I've concluded over the last few years that nowhere in the world does such a thing a a free market exist. Anyone who believes the markets are not being "managed"by government are dreaming. They always have been. In fact I'd suggest that the military economy that powered the US never was dismantled after WWII; it simply changed its attire; Armani suits in the place of uniforms. What we are now experiencing is the third generation effect after a major achievement and the Military Complex is suffering the consequences of its economic strangle hold. What the US should fear more than anything else is the elite in the military industrial complex seeking other "richer"nations to plunder in the name of security. Imagine what that could do to the US s military and economic position.

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 16:55 | 815824 Terra-Firma
Terra-Firma's picture

On another note, reflecting the new economy and completely removed from reality, I'm fortunate to live smack in the middle of a major gold, diamond, base metal, silver and gas play in Canada's NWT. New diamond, gold, rare metal and gas projects are sprouting up all around us. Amazing really!

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 17:17 | 815853 Terra-Firma
Terra-Firma's picture

Final thought. Sorry about all the posts to. What if Canada was the the US's "new"land of opportunity; just as California was during the last depression. Our natural resource wealth combined with the US's agricultural wealth would create a resourcepowerhouse. Combine that powerhouse with competitive wages and prices and you have the makings and emergence of a post US empire. Mexicans doing the manual labour creating surplus for an expanding middle class composed mostly of Asians and Amexicans. It's the easiest way to increase the size of the pie and expand the MATERIAL well being for more people in the world, thus creating more wealth and surplus. So, let's get on with it. We need a north american  currency and legal framework followed shortly afterwards with a constitution and charter. We morph the Parliamentarymodel by politicising the senate and giving it congressional powers. Bottom line; the legal and geographic boundaries of our nations no longer meet our socio-economic needs. We need to redefine the concept and function of nations,

 

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 19:51 | 816082 Cdad
Cdad's picture

We morph the Parliamentarymodel by politicising the senate and giving it congressional powers. Bottom line; the legal and geographic boundaries of our nations no longer meet our socio-economic needs. We need to redefine the concept and function of nations,

Ummmmm....excuse me....but.....WTF does that mean?

Listen, I am not exactly feeling patient tonight, but I consider it, you know, common decency to try to be patient with guys in Hong Kong that post stuff that, as far as I can tell, means absolutely nothing.  And if you are not in Hong Kong, I also apologize for that....I do....most sincerely.

OK...so I have to ask....what [online] book are you cutting and pasting from, buddy?  Really, I need to know.  I said I NEED TO KNOW.

Thanks...and sorry,

Cdad

P.S.

..."redefine the concept and function of nations."   Man...when I try to grab on to that....I gotta tell ya....that is....really something.

Sun, 12/19/2010 - 13:59 | 817013 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Obvious Roubini was bought and pd for.. haven't read  or listened to him since 2007.

Who can with that Thick Hungarian accent?

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