Animated Radioactive Fallout Forecast

Tyler Durden's picture

Absent further deterioration at the Fukushima plant over the weekend, the next big shoe to drop will be public reaction when the radioactive fallout hits Tokyo (and other major populated areas). And juging by the latest data available from Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in Austria, Tokyo, which so far has been spared by friendly winds, may get its first dose of radiation by the weekend. Below we present the latest animated color-coded data for both Japan and the world, which extrapolates both fallout strength and direction. As ZAMG explains the fallout is, "currently in a critical region, dominated by a westerly flow. On the ground, the wind is relatively weak. There is no precipitation. Soon the wind will blow from the south-east and intensify. On Sunday rain front will arrive from the southwest to the crisis area and lead to some strong precipitation (radioactive rain). Behind the front, northerly winds are forecast, so the situation for the Tokyo area may again be critical. The dispersion calculations show fallout is now mainly transported to the sea. Currently cloud have a southeast direction, which will change to northeast tomorrow (see illustrations). Subsequently, more areas in Japan will be covered by fallout."

Japan fallout tracker:


Ausbreitung der Wolke von Fukushima/permanente Freisetzung/Jod-131

And more importantly for everyone not in Japan, the global fallout tracker:


Ausbreitung der Wolke von Fukushima/permanente Freisetzung/Cs-137 (globales Bild)

And as the forecast, map cuts off mid day on March 20, this is how the wind pattern will look on that day.

h/t Credit Trader

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ZerOhead's picture

Correct!

(for once... :)

AN0NYM0US's picture

and the captions to the graphics translated to cat are as follows:

map key

 Iodine-131 (local image)

 Cesium-137 (global image)

'Regarding the colour scaling of the simulation, one needs to keep in mind that the red colour marks areas around the plant where the effective dose rates were, at the absolute maximum, 100 Milli-Sievert per hour (according to information released by IAEA in Vienna). The violet colour thus shows areas with estimated effective dose rates of 100 Nano-Sievert (maximum) per hour.

 

Summed up over a period of one year, this would still be less than the natural radiation exposure of an average citizen.'

 

 

ZerOhead's picture

You once again fail to understand that this party is just starting....

Remember... it was only just declared to be as bad as Three Mile with no containment breaches and no fatalities.

Bets?

(That said... I certainly hope you are right about this being no big deal! And thanks for the translation... :)

george's picture

OK so what I want to know is why is this still going on? Shouldn't the radioactive material be cooled by now which would make a meltdown very improbable? How long does it take for nuclear reactors to cool?

JohnG's picture

Fuel rods in water for these reactors cool in ~19 months before they can be reproccessed.

george's picture

Thanks John.

 

Are you saying that they are hazardous for 19 months or back to being useful in 19 months?

JohnG's picture

They are always hazardous.  Just not too hot to handle after cooling.

Someone picked up a story yesterday about three people in a reprocessing plant 70 or so miles from Fukushima that were irradiated while one was sawing a rod.

U-238 is always hazardous.

george's picture

We'll yeah, I should have quantified my definition of hazordous. You obvously have done a little research on the topic. Based on you"re knowledge, are you pooping your pants (figure of speach) over Japan's current situation? 

JohnG's picture

I remain calm through the wonders of heavy drinking and xanax.  Shitting my drawers just means I have to buy more.

But yeah, this is bad especially for the Japanese, and could get much worse.  We just don't have reliable information.  If we have exposed cores and if the rods SFP's go critical again, it will get much worse.

Lot's of "ifs" here.  No definitive info and that's what really worries me the most.  These are the types of events that get covered up, and that's not a pun on cement encasement.

george's picture

Thanks homie.

 

My thoughts and prayers go out to Japan. 

awakened's picture

Yea, those are my drugs of choice as well, although I was tempted to ask the bartender for a shot of Prussian Blue to go with a green beer chaser last night, or just a little Prussian Blue on the rocks. I decided he wouldn't understand so why bother.

Its too late to get potassium iodine and if it is truly the spent fuel rods that exploded, one needs both potassium iodine and Prussian Blue (Radiogardase) which is prescription only and one will need to be tested first. (And no one will be tested outside of Tepco's 50, or 350 wherever the number ends up.) Potassium iodine only works against radioactive iodine, protecting the thyroid, and Prussian Blue works to shorten the half life of celsium. Not sure what works for strotium and plutonium.

http://www.bt.cdc.gov/radiation/prussianblue.asp

So I am resigned to staying indoors for the next few weeks/months however long this plays out, in spite of the nice weather. Sigh. And I live in the Midwest!

My prayers go out to all the people of Japan, as well as for the protection of my family. The Japanese people did nothing to deserve this. But that is the way it goes most times. hopefully they are getting potassium iodine AND Prussian Blue.

awakened's picture

dont know what the heck happened there.

tip e. canoe's picture

i'll take my chances with wheatgrass, kelp & a healthy dose of moonshine, but to each his own.

mirac's picture

other helpful stuff...                                                                     http://www.naturalnews.com/031728_nuclear_contamination_glutathione.html

tmosley's picture

Glutathione is indeed an excellent radical scavenger, and helps to fuel your immune system, and after use there, helps to regulate sleep.  It really is a wonder drug.

But don't just take glutathione.  It is destroyed in your stomach, and is really expensive.  Your body synthesizes it naturally.  You need three amino acids to produce it.  The first two are plentiful in practically any diet.  The third, cysteine, often is not.  You can buy N-acetyl cysteine, which is more readily absorbed by the body, in bulk for very little.  If you want to get it from food, I would suggest you eat eggs with your breakfast, as they are rich in cysteine.  The cysteine content of eggs is actually one of the main reasons why they are so good for hangovers.

Honestly, this is a major part of my research, and glutathione really is probably the single most important peptide in the human body that is often in short supply.

Bitch Tits's picture

I believe you mean iodide, not iodine.

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Even after they got the new extension cord to the complex they still need to run cable to each pump.

Who knows if the pumps Or pipes will work. They could have been damaged from the tsunami, quake or all that saltwater they keep dumping.

Electric equipment doesn't work well when you keep dumping salt water on it.

ZerOhead's picture

Yup. And think pressure seals on the pumps melting...

Background radiation will cause one out of 100 people to die of cancer, said Dr. Donald Bucklin, who spent 10 years as medical director for the Palo Verde nuclear plant in Arizona. More exposure increases risk.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_EVwICV2MUog/TUfb9RTCsxI/AAAAAAAAAZU/GWJzFS8wtvE/s1600/Jetpic.jpg

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Nine+more+radiation+monitoring+stations+added+coast/4470839/story.html#ixzz1H5JLWPpZ

LongSoupLine's picture

Not to mention the potential for electrical fires when you energize a load of damaged equipment and open circuits.

ZerOhead's picture

Depends on the dispersion of the molten reactor fuel intermixed with the liquified steel of the 20 cm. thick reactor vessel. Once it drops out it will burn downward through stainless steel and the 17 foot thick concrete floor  until it fails to create enough heat (through dilution with concrete and/or what's below) to go any further.

Then it will probably smoulder for months.

But that is just a guess. ;)

minus dog's picture

"OK so what I want to know is why is this still going on? Shouldn't the radioactive material be cooled by now which would make a meltdown very improbable? How long does it take for nuclear reactors to cool?"

 

George, I'm assuming you don't understand how nuclear power works.  Any of this fissile material - spent fuel rods, the rods in the reactor itself - heat themselves as a result of how much of their active component is in them, and how close together those active parts are.  The unstable atoms split, release neutrons, and those then trigger other nearby atoms to do the same.  The splitting generates heat, and the heat is used to generate power.

If there aren't enough fissioning atoms, or they're too far apart, or there is a moderating material present that absorbs neutrons (like control rods), then it'll eventually fizzle out.  If there is a LOT of fissioning atoms very close together you get a mess; if you shove enough of them together fast enough you get an atomic explosion (not happening in most reactors - in fact not even close - but it's one end of the spectrum of possibilities).

It takes a balancing act to keep the fuel rods in the reactor hot enough to produce power but not to melt or have other problems.  In a lot of older designs you need constant cooling to keep things from getting out of hand - even with the "spent" fuel rods still have a lot of fissile material in them.  It takes an active effort to cool the reactor - it won't happen on it's own unless the reactor melts down entirely and the molten fuel spreads out (example, Chernobyl).  Toss in an earthquake and a tsunami, knock out your cooling equipment and wash away the backup equipment, and this is the mess you get.

AN0NYM0US's picture

and the bet will be?

 

Let's pick up on your theme of things just getting started: How about a measurment that  the ratio of Nuke posts to non Nuke articles on ZH will be less than x% (excluding George and other contributors) beginning Monday March 28 through Friday April 1. You seem like a fair cat so you can set the percentage.

fuu's picture

I'll bite. 5% nuke posts 95% other posts.

ZerOhead's picture

Well considering I'm up 1 to ZerO on you already (burning spent fuel issue) let me set the parameters of the bet.

Since the average attention span of an American/European is on the order of twenty seconds... I suspect issue fatigue will have long since set in by then. Your bet therefore was loaded in your favor through simple human psychology.

Let's try this then...

A minimum of half of the urban area of Tokyo (35MM pop.) will either self evacuate or be forced to evacuate by April 1st.

I don't think I have to tell  you what that will do to Japanese/Global GDP do I?

Bet?

(Let me check out wind direction probabilities for Tokyo first... checking checking... )

ZerOhead's picture

Extremely low odds of a direct hit on Tokyo unless an anti-cyclonic (storm) cell moves through. Still I'll take the bet based on the level to which this disaster will rise.

If Chernobyl was a 7 then by then this will be a 7.... perhaps even a newly created 9? 

MsCreant's picture

I like the kitty, but that is some funny shit you did there:

#1073642

You are really creative. Hope you're on my side in a war.

AN0NYM0US's picture

I don't know what others think but in my view ZerOhead is one of the best contributors here.

ZerOhead's picture

I agree with you... discussing issues of substance are what this site should be about... and your eyesight is a heck of a lot better than mine.

No junks from me on this one...

The bet will be for a new avatar for one of us for a period of oh... let's say a month.

How about this one...

http://www.mywct.com/products/images/P/125.jpg

ZerOhead's picture

You have miraculous time posting abilities ANONYMOUS

I keep running across posters who can change their prior posts after I respond.

 

What the fuck is going on here?

AN0NYM0US's picture

I just posted but MsC locked me out

how about this - if it's still a big deal by April Fools day with radiation leaking all over the place, newsworthy concerns about nuke leftovers hitting the west coast and fires burning or similar etc... then you're right and I'm wrong. 

if I lose I'll take the bag off my head for a week - (msC has seen a partial reveal in the past)  if you lose you have to be polite (to everybody) for a week- It would be too cruel to ask  you to change your avatar

 

ColonelCooper's picture

Hey if you guys don't use the avatar, can I have it?

ZerOhead's picture

I was saving it for someone special but heck... go ahead! :)

ColonelCooper's picture

Some days after I've had a couple too many martinis, it would be quite appropriate.

ZerOhead's picture

So exactly HOW do you manage to change your posts after they were made and locked in by my reply?

People junked you because you asked why you were junked for providing information which is why I responded as I did.

No more games ANONYMOUS... what the fuck gives?

 

AN0NYM0US's picture

Quick, does anyone here have some extra lithium?  it would be prefurrred if it's mixed in with some Iams

ZerOhead's picture

Too funny... tooooo funny.

Besides... I'm more of a Nine-Lives w qualudes kinda Cat! :)

MsCreant's picture

I saw when it was posted the other way, (it had 4 junks) and the changed way. I did not post there in case he wanted to change it again. It was already changed before you posted because I made the choice to post my observation where I did instead. If he was going to keep playing who am I to get in the way of a gentlecat and gentlebag's good fun.

He did not change that one after you posted. I hope this helps.

Hope you are doing well. The avatar you propose is a scream. Remember Asshat? That was a pretty good one too.

ANON's strip tease is pretty good.

ZerOhead's picture

Thanks MsCreant... it certainly does help. I'm a skittish creature when it comes to paranormal activity on this site.

Apologies to ANONYMOUS as well. I do love to joust with him so... :)

Wannabee's picture

MsC-

I've read your post 3 times and still don't understand what you said. 

Having flash backs of this_ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XC6hGxjj6Zk

(posted many times before I know)

TruthInSunshine's picture

Just found this but Google has taken it down, so here's the cache and reprint:

GAMMA RADIATION LEVELS ON WEST COAST 2 T0 10 TIMES LEVELS ON EAST COAST - GOOGLE CACHE OF THE STORY THAT WAS DELETED

 

Google cache of story - since taken down.

References Zero Hedge.

No cover up. Suuuuure.

 

By Miriam Raftery
 
March 16, 2011 (San Diego) 12:30 a.m. -- A radiation map on the U.S. Environmental Protection Service shows radiation levels at measuring stations across the United States.  There is a disturbing pattern showing gamma radiation levels along the West Coast, Alaska and Hawaii at two to ten times levels on the East Coast, with midwest states in mid-ranges:

 
 The EPA radiation site (www.epa.gov/radiation) has a database but does not appear to list what units this map is measured in, so it is difficult to assess whether these levels should be of concern. However it's clear from the map that levels are highest in all West Coast states, Hawaii, Alaska, Arizona and  Nevada, all with measures in the 900s, tapering off as you move eastward, with measurements on the East Coast ranging from around 100 to 400. 
 
The map displays gamma radiation.  The site states that gamma radiation is only measured when beta radiation is found to exceed normal levels
 
Gamma radiation is the type of radiation being spewed forth from at least four failed Japanese nuclear reactors, including two where authorities have indicated the core has been breached, plus a spent fuel rod pond where radiation was released directly into the atmosphere.  In low levels, gamma rays can cause nausea and other effects.  In high levels, it can cause more serious health effects both short and long term, including cancer and birth defects.
 
East County Magazine will be contacting the EPA when their office opens for an explanation on the measurements.  Earlier today, the EPA issued a statement indicating it will deploy more electronic monitors that measure radiatiolevels in the air. The monitors, which detect gamma radiation and radioactive particles, will be set up in "parts of the Western U.S. and U.S. territories," the agency said in a statement.
 
EPA officials, however, refused to answer questions or make staff members available to explain the exact location and number of monitors, or the levels of radiation, if any, being recorded at existing monitors in California, the San Jose Mercury-News reports. Margot Perez-Sullivan at the EPA's regional headquarters in San Francisco, said the agency's written statement would stand on its own.
 
Critics said the public needs more information.
 
"It's disappointing," said Bill Magavern, director of Sierra Club California. "I have a strong suspicion that EPA is being silenced by those in the federal government who don't want anything to stand in the way of a nuclear power expansion in this country, heavily subsidized by taxpayer money."
 
The EPA has 124 air monitors, which provide hourly readings, already in place in its "Rad-Net" system to measure radiation, including 12 in California and two in Hawaii. California locations include San Jose, Sacramento, Fresno, Los Angeles and San Diego; however the San Diego monitor is listed as "inactive" on another EPA database. The EPA also has 40 mobile monitors, some of which are now being deployed. The agency clarified that some would go to Guam, Hawaii and Alaska, but did not respond to questions about California, the Mercury-News said.
 
"As the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has said, we do not expect to see radiation at harmful levels reaching the U.S. from damaged Japanese nuclear power plants," the EPA statement yesterday stated.
 
Government regulatory agencies and nuclear experts have repeatedly said that high levels of radiation are unlikely to hit California in significant quantities because Japan is 5,000 miles away. However, studies from the California Air Resources Board have found that coal dust and other pollution from China regularly reaches the state.
 
Most experts said that if the Japanese reactors experience a complete Chernobyl-type explosion, fire and release of nuclear material, some could reach California, but "probably in very low amounts," the Mercury- News reports.
 
The Japanese government now has a website with radiation readings there posted online, however Fukushima and certain other locations are listed as "under survey" and have not been releaesd.  You can view the current data here:    http://www.bousai.ne.jp/eng/
 
There is an analysis and screenshots of the Japanese data here that indicates gamma radiation levels were extremely high 100 miles or so from the explosions and fires at the Fukushima nuclear reactors. The website Zero Hedge analysis concludes that "the data is stunning: based on a N, NE and NNE wind direction (where it originates), meaning all coming from Fukushima, with a normal reading in the 80 nGy/h range, the city of Kounosu Naka is at 3,024, Kadobe Naka is at 2,416, Isobe Hitachioota is at 1,213 and many others are in the mid to upper triple digit range! Again, this is based on wind coming out of Fukushima and ultimately headed toward the capital. Indicatively, normal terrestrial plus cosmic gamma radiation is about 80 nGy/h."  See 
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gamma-radiation-fukushima-downwind-ibaraki-disclosed-30-times-above-normal  
 
ECM cautions that we do not know whether these sites are using comparable measurements to the EPA site or not, nor even whether West Coast gamma measurements are customarily comparable to East Coast measurements or not, nor whether the higher levels on this map are due to the ongoing nuclear crisis in Japan.  However we believe in giving the public all information available.   We will be seeking expert comments at the earliest opportunity.

I am more equal than others's picture

Oh yes.....

Love that whip action.... straight out of hell.  Satan's whip!  Going to torment the world.

 

One question about saturation;  sure it disperses but won't even the area of dispersion accumulate dangerous amount... moving on... once dangerous levels are achieved in the dispesion areas won't it disperse even more. repeat and rinse.

Cleanclog's picture

Living near the coast in California, purple is my new favorite color.

AldoHux_IV's picture

Sweet, looks like instead of just exporting inflation, we can now expect exported nuclear radiation.  Fucking Tepco.

css1971's picture

So, does KI now cost more per ounce than Gold?

 

Lord Welligton's picture

What are the odds on every Geiger Counter in Tokyo malfunctioning in the next three days.

 

Oligarchs Gone Wild's picture

Have to wonder where is the realtime radiation being promised by the EPA???  How hard is it to dump the raw data to a webserver.  They've had a week to connect the data in the CDX to a website portal for the public...

This article says radiation data will be sent to the EPA and published online:

"The radiation stations will send real time data via satellite to EPA officials, who will make the data available to the public online."

http://www.mynorthwest.com/?nid=11&sid=446580

"Federal officials monitor radiation levels around the clock"

Phew, I feel safer now.

"The EPA is hoping a transparent view of its radiation collection system will ease unwarranted panic."

http://www.wtvm.com/Global/story.asp?S=14277319

If Obama and the US Gov. is so cocky confident that 'all is well' then open up the EPA RADNET monitoring site data and let the public see the what the radnet is recording. 

EPA's entire RADNET network brings you this critical update regarding US exposure:
http://www.epa.gov/radiation/data-updates.html

Closest thing possible for real time radiation data in the US since the EPA apparently waits 2-3 years to publish anything.  (NOT RADNET) Private data:
http://www.radiationnetwork.com/

EPA's RADNET's rich history of radiation monitoring publishing:
http://www.epa.gov/radiation/rert/experience.html

Published RADNET data, last time 2009? 
http://www.epa.gov/narel/radnet/erdonline.html

About RADNET
http://www.epa.gov/enviro/html/erams/index.html

Where are the RADNET monitoring sites?
http://www.epa.gov/narel/radnet/operators/index.html

Sacremento detection:
http://www.wwreporters.com//videos/1962/radiation-reached-us

How to access EPA RadNet Data primer:
http://www.epa.gov/narel/radnet/pdf/How_to_Access_RadNet_Data.pdf

EPA CDX (Central Data Exchange) used for accessing RADNET data:
http://www.epa.gov/cdx/

EPA CDX Login page.
https://cdx.epa.gov/ssl/cdx/login.asp

US streaming Radiation monitors (private, non RADNET):
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-radiation-monitoring-from-west-la

Decent thread on AR15.com with photos of radiation counters in US (multi-page, see later pages):
http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=1161140
    
Unlike the US, In Japan - you can get realtime data (assuming it's accurate):
realtime readings from Japan's radiological monitoring network
http://bit.ly/fbR2e2

Excellent monitoring charting from last week:
http://fleep.com/earthquake/

CTBTO radiation monitoring network - but no reporting?:
http://www.ctbto.org/map/#ims