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Animated Radioactive Fallout Forecast
Absent further deterioration at the Fukushima plant over the weekend, the next big shoe to drop will be public reaction when the radioactive fallout hits Tokyo (and other major populated areas). And juging by the latest data available from Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in Austria, Tokyo, which so far has been spared by friendly winds, may get its first dose of radiation by the weekend. Below we present the latest animated color-coded data for both Japan and the world, which extrapolates both fallout strength and direction. As ZAMG explains the fallout is, "currently in a critical region, dominated by a westerly flow. On the ground, the wind is relatively weak. There is no precipitation. Soon the wind will blow from the south-east and intensify. On Sunday rain front will arrive from the southwest to the crisis area and lead to some strong precipitation (radioactive rain). Behind the front, northerly winds are forecast, so the situation for the Tokyo area may again be critical. The dispersion calculations show fallout is now mainly transported to the sea. Currently cloud have a southeast direction, which will change to northeast tomorrow (see illustrations). Subsequently, more areas in Japan will be covered by fallout."
Japan fallout tracker:
And more importantly for everyone not in Japan, the global fallout tracker:
And as the forecast, map cuts off mid day on March 20, this is how the wind pattern will look on that day.
h/t Credit Trader
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Can you really trust a man named FOC ardi especially if he is associated with >Rossi well known "red" artist. It's an explosive combination. Rossi and Foc are like Nicola and Bart. It would start a stampede in the USA. Ardi and Ross is more like it. WS would love them and Hollywood would incense them and not nail them on a red cross. That's marketing. It all in bottling a good label. What fails as FOC wins as Ardi. Cold fusion becomes hot delusion. Lovely feeling all stored in a sexy bottle like N°5. Instant bangs in your cupboard. That lights up your nights like Mowgli bowling a googly. Boogie nights on the strip. And then you end up full of chips as the king of Las Vegas. You're it. The man who made it to the top with a fusional knob that electrifies the crowd. No fall out and no hazardous drop in the toilet bin, a breathtaking, sizzling finale as you leave the door molten from desire when you sail out to next destination. You will end up getting the Nobel peace prize and the Oscar for making Fukushima a non recurrent night mare.
If a dirty bomb remains unexploded in the forest, does it cause a panic?
It depends on how dirty it actually is. If it was covered in shit, I wouldn't go anywhere near it.
This is a very short timeframe. The prevailing winds are favourable right now, but the Fukushima plant is going to be billowing rads for .........quite a while yet. Sooner or later Japan and some of her neighbours are going to get sustained fallout. We can probably already assume that a lot of the post eathquake / tidal wave reconstruction needed will simply be put on hold or done in a half hearted manner untill there is an end to the radiation output. The really big (and for now, unanswerable question) is how much and which land, will end up being uninhabitable. I dont want to be melodramatic, but the potential exists for a lot of Japan to become rather non productive. Anybody property hunting in Tokyo this weekend?
Sadly, this is a poster for the future. An aging population that's highly dependent upon diminishing resources, energy being key. A parable of planet earth...
Bingo. We haven't "rebuilt" New Orleans - my guess is that most of the damaged areas of Japan won't be rebuilt either.
And the reason is because the world's infrastructure has been mostly predicated on $20/bbl oil. We're trying to run everything on $90+/bbl oil AND recover from such things AND build some new, magical alternative system!
I'm just not thinking that spending a bunch of time trying to click my heels together is going to make things better.
Meanwhile bankers and defense contactors are rolling in the dough...
Take a look at this article
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23764
Nuclear Apocalypse in Japan
Lifting the Veil of Nuclear Catastrophe and cover-up
by Keith Harmon Snow
I have no way of evaluating it but claims are documented with citations and there is already clear evidence of deception in official accounts...as zerohedge has followed...
Given upwards of 20,000 Japanese may be dead from a tsunami, how is any land on the east coast of Japan 30ft or less above sea level considered inhabitable, even if not destroyed in this particular disaster? Radioactive fallout may slow rebuilding but the sheer dimension of the tsunami event should be a warning against rebuilding at all, and encourage relocating villages inland that can concievably suffer the same fate.
Maybe this is the greatest normalcy bias of all - obsessing over a nuclear disaster (and it is cause for major concern) while tens of millions around the world live within reach of historically-large tsunamis, of whom a quarter million have died over the past decade alone.
Way upwards of 20K, I'm afraid.
Similar to BP, this is much ado about nothing from a human impact perspective. Get back to posting financial dirt please.
Spent over a decade working for uranium miners Cameco and Denison. What exactly would these airborne decay products be? Do they penetrate skin? Do they entrain in the lungs in quantities anyone outside the exclusion zone needs to worry about? ie. radon decaying to lead 210? Not a chance. Move along, nothing to see here.
"Move along, nothing to see here."
Then take your own advice!
Recall that Cherobyl went critical and the impact over Europe was fleeting. Little chance of going critical here. And if so going critical essentially solves the problem through dispersion.
But... you speak as though you know certainty.
We're playing with fire. Anyone who doesn't believe that we'll eventually get burnt is a fool.
I guess familiarity is a bit to my advantage. I was the Mine Superintendent at the high grade Mcarthur River uranium mine from 1999-2002 and we were dealing with ore grades to 80% U3O8 (but obviously only about 0.6% U235) but every nasty decay product you could think of. Radon, radium, lead 210, polonium210 etc.
So I have been trying to think the math through here since the only thing that keeps people away from fighting this thing is gamma radiation since alpha can be handled via respiratory protection and beta will not penetrate clothing. So the gamma must be coming off the spent pools since the containment is adequate to shield gamma. Still a mystery. But the take away is that gamma is a very local affair. Essentially the inverse distance squared rule.
All is well and fine, and I trust that you are who you are, but... every major man-made calamity is backed by "we ran the math" kind of statements (with people covering their butts, just as we're currently seeing).
I don't want people to get me wrong, I'm in awe of what technological things we've been able to do, but on the other hand I know that anything that's not under the direct control of Mother Nature is at the mercy of entropy and is therefore destined to lose over the course of time. None of this smacks of sustainability, therefore it WILL fail. It's possible that neither you or I will be around when the book closes on all of this, in which case it's easy to dismiss future impacts. And while I am no follower of religions/cults, I do believe there is sufficient anecdotals warning us of human hubris.
Are there over-stated doomsday scenarios being painted? Of course.
To those who missed the trip on the Titanic is was an "oh shit" reflection; to those on it there was no reflection. Assuming that we'll always be able to say "better luck next time" assumes that we always will have a next time. The builders of the first atom bomb weren't sure that it wouldn't set off a chain reaction in the atmosphere, yet they were willing to find out.
History tells us that Dr. Stragelove isn't outside the realm of possibilities.
Well stated. Thank you for your perspective.
One thing I try to teach the young engineers (potash these days not uranium thank God) is that they must think through what the worst possible outcome could possibly be for their decision ( or design etc.). Where I put the fear of God into them though is when I tell them that they must be able to defend their decision (design etc.) as if it were in the court of law responding to a disaster due to their action.
I've enjoyed your contributions to this thread, Seer. Good posts.
Some other posters have touched on this but to be more direct, you are saying we shouldn't be concerned about sustained unhealthy radiation doses reaching Tokyo?
Because while I live on the West Coast of the U.S. I am only concerned aout the knock-on effects of Tokyo being rendered uninhabitable or at the very least, the perception that its dangerous to live there. Its easy to imagine what might happen to world markets if that were to occur. If you are saying it shouldn't be a concern, then this whole story is, indeed, overblown.
Hey look. I am still classified as a "nuclear worker" in Canada which means I may be exposed to 100 milliseverts of radioactivity over five years but no more than 50 milliseverts in one year. These limits were based upon "no perceivable health impacts". Study after study has been conducted but they always get fucked up by the fact that a certain percentage of the study population smoke. Smokers always fuck up the studies since they die long before uranium industry workers do. In fact we live longer than the average population because we get annual medicals which picks up other health problems.
So your sunburn is going to cause you more grief than japan.
the impact over Europe was fleeting
Which part of 'Europe' ?
Hey mcarthur, take a motorcycle ride thru Chernobyl
"Belorussia is a separate country. PLEASE NOTE, the neighbouring country suffered more then the country where disaster taken place. Radiation has international nature and don't need invitations or visas to travel. The evil dark wind of that day carried 70% of Chernobyl’s heavy radiation into the neighboring country of Belorussia.
As we travel northward, we begin to grasp the immensity of the total area that was poisoned, and will still be poisoin in the year 2525. "
http://www.kiddofspeed.com/chernobyl-land-of-the-wolves/
http://www.kiddofspeed.com/chernobyl-revisited/
(at bottom of each page hit the 'Next Page' links)
http://www.kiddofspeed.com/chapter1.html
Take a few minutes and take a GOOD LOOK at northern Japan's (at least) future...
Chernobyl does not impact my investment portfolio. Neither will northern Japan. Perspective.
Ah, but be careful of indirect consequences! Black swans like flying in the night...
Well if you own any stock that is dependent on japan for essential manufacturing inputs, it may well have some effect on your portfolio.
I think that's a somewhat premature statement considering we don't know the extent of the damage in Japan, AND they hold how much of our debt? Is your portfolio in dollars?
$C actually. Hate to say it but this incident is going to cause the boom in the west to continue. The reason will be LNG and pipelines from AB/BC finally delinking these sources off the NA price of natural gas. This will eventually tie the NA price to the world and close the oil/gas arbitrage that exists currently.
And the market will be?
Japan,Korea, China
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/18/us-encana-idUSTRE72H2UH2011031...
The spent fuel rods are still burning, if they get warm enough the fissible materials melt thru the cladding which becomes similar to an egg shell in brittleness. If the fissible material collects in a large enough mass it could burn through the holding tank, or if the tank is no longer intact due to quake or explosion damage it can just leak out and find a way into the water table, which could cause a steam explosion scattering actinides into the air and water.
The inherent problem is we don't know how structurally sound the buildings and containment areas are, we don't know how much radioactive material is in the reactors and holding pools and a whole host of other unknowns. It is a an unfolding situation and could cause very real problems for Tokyo and the Yen.
This is a financial and a human story, whose end is not yet written. Nothing to see here is an ironic comment that perfectly reflects the inability of human senses to detect radiation. You cannot see it, taste or touch it, but it will hold you in its invisible hand and you will know it only by the way in which you die.
I respect radiation, it is a tool man has only known about for a century, to think that we have mastered it already is a bit egotistical. There will be repercussion human and financial before this deadly dance ends.
NOTE: I did not junk you.
How do we even know that Japan is a real place and not some cooked-up anti-nuclear rhetoric from the left wing nuts? Has anyone ever really seen a Japanite?
Yeah! And the flag, clearly it's fake!
Look really closely at Obama, he's Japanese! He's part of the entire charade!
Japan is really only a distraction from the fact that they are hiding the portal to the heavens, to salvation! Those f&#king socialist godless b*st&rds!
Get ten years behind this disaster, and that's pretty close to what we'll be hearing. They'll say the damage was exaggerated, and claim houses don't turn to lumber from contact with seawater. They'll have pictures of the devastated villages, circling this or that thing to "prove" it's of a studio. The death toll will be questioned as well, since many of the dead have been swept out to sea and can't be counted. They'll claim thousands are alive on some island somewhere, isolated from the rest of the world because they have certain knowledge that would "blow the lid" off everything. There will be an errant story that was quickly retracted that will become the proof, undeniable, of a cover-up, remembered long after other facts are long forgotten. They'll claim the nuclear crisis was designed to undermine nuclear so hydrocarbon usage is guaranteed for the forseeable future, or whatever fits the current counterthought. They'll answer all critics who say their senario is impossible with "follow the money" and "Operation Northwoods."
All it takes is time.
so much fail.
unless, of course, it's sarcasm...
Somehow I missed the report on BBC claiming an earthquake hit Japan before it actually hit.
Got video?
JUST FOUND THIS:
US: Would you like to know if radiation levels in the U.S. begin to rise above normal? Here is a map featuring Geiger counter readings in almost every state. It updates every 3 minutes. RadiationNetwork 2011 posted Mar 18
http://radiationnetwork.com/
It only has consistent stations in six or seven states. Better than nothing, but the monitors are very spread out.
The most important aspect of this tragedy is now the length of time this shit smells
I have no real understanding of this coloured graphic but I suspect this is tolerable if it continues for some more days - if this slurry pit is open for months or years it could do great damage I imagine.
They should be doing preparatory work now to seal this baby with concrete (hopefully not glass) but the fact that the reactors are so close to the coast worries me.
If they can seal this, whats to stop the rods burning underground and entering the Pacific ?
Corexit?
Brilliant! Given enough time all that'll be needed is for people to just hear that word, that that will instantly passify them, allow them to switch back from bad thoughts to happy thoughts of shopping and blowing up people in the ME!
Long powdered milk.
All this divine wind talk makes me humpy. I wish Fukushima were a woman. I would do it to her like a Samourai who went kamikaze in Mongol fury. Bruce Lee would have loved to dance on the walls of those reactors like on razor's edge. Above those sizzling rods. Like tempting hell. Can you hear that dog bark below. It's the guardian of Hades, it needs water all the time or else it belches a deadly slime. Cerberus, you piece of plutonium...I loved you more as Pluto.
Consider thyself unjunked! Some people can't appreciate art.
Breaking news, the CBOE Cesium-137 index opens Monday.
/Sarcasm /gallowshumor
http://www.contramanfund.wordpress.com/
Where is Waldo? Brazil? Where is his family? Brazil too?
"Everything is just fine..." Time to launch a new invasion (War) & Start a 5-day Family Trip to South America?
Leaving the continent is just a co-incidence you say? Just as you likely will be opening your mouth and breathing into a low flying Tropopause Polar Jet stream full of gamma rays.
"So we Californian can not make baby in next 300 years?"
All of the illegals will do that FOR YOU Californicators. Then the Amerikan Taxpayer will take care of ALL their medical costs, forever.......................or until all this shit ends.
Astroturfers have infiltrated ZeroHedge.
It was only a matter of time.
Operation 'Sock Puppet' is totally obvious.
I agree.
all government, ex government, private government, and low frequency government are not created equal
God bless the folks at the plant....from NHK
TEPCO workers exposed to radiation beyond limit
Tokyo Electric Power Company says it will raise the limit of radiation for its workers at nuclear power plants. It says the workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant have been exposed to more than the current limit of radiation.
The company revealed the information in Tokyo early Saturday.
The company had set a radiation limit of up to 100 milli-sieverts exposure for each shift of emergency work at the nuclear facility.
But many workers engaged in cooling down the reactors after the quake were exposed to more than 100 milli-sieverts.
The power company says it has decided to raise the limit to 150 milli-sieverts for some outdoor workers as the current trouble is unprecedented and demands urgent measures.
The Japanese Health Ministry has already increased the limit to 250 milli-sieverts.
The electric company says it is doing its best to protect workers' health. It says it will not send any worker exposed to more than 100 milli-sieverts to another round of work at the reactors.
Saturday, March 19, 2011 08:04 +0900 (JST)
"God bless the folks at the plant"
Aside from the fact that God would have had had a hand in all of this from the start ("he" is either active or non-active in our daily affairs), I concur with your sentiments.
Sadly, how does anyone know whether they aren't being lied to as to how much exposure they're getting? For all anyone knows a video loop could be used to show a good value. Recall that US soldiers we sent into ditches near atomic bomb tests; statements were that everyone was safe...
Humans are, like all animals, about deception. If an entire system is predicated on a given picture then all powers will be brought to protect that picture. In the eyes of the ruling class we're all just ants; you won't find them living near any major industrial activity, nor in the real field of battle... The ruling class has perfected deceit.
Predators are about deception.
Producers are about honesty.
Naturally occurring processes of nature are sufficient to support about 1 million humans spread across the planet.
But the population of earth is about 7000 times more, and only the ethics of production can support so many people.
Therefore, people better choose wisely and very soon as the modus-operandi quickly and continuously degrades and reverts from producer to predator.
Get honest. Get ethical. Get productive. Or get dead.
Careful, your naivete is showing...
Promoting "production" better come with the caveat of sustainability lest you are sure to experience deception. When there are resource shortages all honesty is out the window: big ol' peaceful US deceived everyone on WMD.
Of course sustainability is crucial. Honesty even more so.
The USSA is the worst evil empire on earth, maybe in history. Why you think I support anything to do with the current government or large corporations totally eludes me. You call them productive? I don't. Those are predators and destroyers, not producers.
This planet could easily support 2 billion monkeys in perpetuity living lives of unprecedented luxury.
Get real.
2 billion non-productive predator monkeys living lives of luxury?
If you believe that, you're delusional.
With all due respect to your normally intelligent posts, I think that's just a tad pessimistic! The population of the planet in 1700 -- ie. prior to the invention of the steam engine and long before the industrial revolution -- was already 700 million! Indeed, it was already 200 million at the [alleged] time of Christ.
What exactly did you mean by "naturally occuring processes of nature"? Living in caves and clubbing passing deer for food?
Yes, I think you misunderstood the thrust of my post.
Productive activity probably began when the first human figured out he could plant the seeds of fruit or veggies to intentionally produce food.
The distinction I'm making is this.
If you live in a cave you did not carve out, and you wander around and kill animals to eat, you are a predator.
If you take actions to create something that would not otherwise have existed, you are a producer. To plant seeds is clearly productive. To collect materials and build a dwelling is clearly productive. To protect, feed, water and care for animals you will eventually consume is productive (to the extent more of them can live). Even to collect wood and start a fire to stay warm or cook is productive.
To be productive does not even remotely require electricity or anything remotely resembling high technology. Sorry that wasn't clear.
The workers will be carrying a "canary" with them that detects gamma radiation and displays this digitally to the worker continuously. So they will know when to retreat based upon the read out. They will also carry an alpha pump which draws in a sample of air at the typical breathing rate. But as long as they have respiratory protection such as a Scott Airpack they do no need to worry about alpha. Beta is also not an issue. Its the gamma.
+++++
Jim - prescient call 4 days ago on entombing the site ...
Many jumping on board now.
Thanks for this information.
However, can anyone state what values and units the various colors indicate? I cannot read the tiny print.
Chiba, Japan - liquefaction.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neB4JLtX6tM
I think we all need to understand we are consuming more than is replaceable continuously. Be it energy or food, at some point we will exceed the replenishment rate, or already have. By reproducing ourselves, we are dooming ourselves and our children to a world of want at some time. This is not god, it is nature. Enjoy the amount of consumption you have in your life. It will all come crashing down at some time.
Sound Bad?? Just enjoy your life
"Rainbow in the morning gives you fair warning."
So there I was, searching high and low for weather sites looking to find 'trade wind' info., trying to develop an idea as to which way the wind was blowing, how long 'til any fallout crossed the Pacific, etc. Frustrated at every turn, finding the occasional meteorology chart, only to realize that it was actually an historical reference from 1994 in some stupid obscure almanac... so, giving up in disgust I decide to have a glance at ZH for some unrelated interests, and LO and BEHOLD: I once again find exactly the information I am seeking, animated and in pretty colours. In effing credible really.
Thanks for keeping me in the loop Tylers (and Marla?).
Warmest Regards
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3QYNsxYzhs
"...you don't need a weatherman..."
"...you're doin' it again..."
Look at the bright side of this. By the time the electricity runs out, everything will glow in the dark and we won't need lights.
Clif High states that the Webbot is describing a major event on or around March 25th. Time will tell. Might be a good idea to stock up on pie.
Tokyo is toast on the 20th at about 9am. I'm not sure when that is exactly. Has it happened already. Does anybody have the DVD?