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Anonymous Blogger Speculates Spanish GDP Is Inflated By €40 Billion, Goldman Gets Involved

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday we received a report submitted from a Spanish blogger who wishes to remain anonymous, in which the author, in 7 brief pages, describes why in his view Spain's GDP is massively overrepresented (and coming just before Moody's downgrade of Spain earlier today). The report (attached below) provides extensive validation for this hypothesis using employment data, information from the service sector, construction output, industry data and foreign sector data. The various data lead the author to observe that: "ΔNational Income= ΔDemand of goods + ΔDemand of services = -56,392 – 11,115 = -67,507 million €, which means a fall of GDP by 24.6% for the biennium 2008-2009."

More from the author.

If this fake is confirmed, the repercussions would be enormous. Because the official discourse of the Spanish government about a supposed adjustment of the Spanish economy would be proved false.

    * Productivity per employee instead of growing, would be falling at record rates.
    * Unit labour costs would be increasing across all sectors.
    * Company profits would have suffered a big drop.
    * The Debt to GDP ratio would increase considerably.
    * Public deficit for 2009 would have reached from 11.2% to 13.5% of GDP.

And the conclusion:

As seen, this calculation gives us a drop in internal demand bigger than the same number reached with the previous method, 40,555 million €. The divergence could originate because the MPM, when in the middle of a collapsing internal demand, could fall significantly; on the other hand, the drop in GDP could have been underestimated with the other method due to the accumulation of stocks in the construction sector, or maybe both effects are at work here. Anyhow, both methods are completely at odds with the fall in the national income reported in the National Accounts and makes consistent the hypothesis of a vast manipulation of data.

As for where this gets really interesting, is the fact that none other than Goldman has immediately issued a rebuttal of the report. Permabull Erik Nielsen has just released a statement in which he says the report is not to be believed at all as it "makes little sense":

I suspect that the reason why anyone cares at all is (1) the bad experience with Greek statistics (but there is no indication what so ever that Spain suffers from anything like that), and (2) a continued general scepticism towards peripheral Europe, so … anything goes.

Our view of the piece is best summarised by this posted comment (not from us, but from someone identifying him or herself as jkc:  "The incongruity comes in why they tracked so well before, but no longer do"  This is called "spurious correlation" which is what you get when comparing apples and oranges or "Market Services Gross Value Added", a productivity metric for the private sector, to a production level metric "Indicator of *Activity* in the Service Sector." It is not odd for productivity to follow a different path than production in a recession (i.e productivity can increase while production goes down which leads to relatively high(er) unemployment.  You will find the same pattern for the US.”

Well said.

Maybe it is better said that a report written by an anonymous blogger has more weight, (as demonstrated by the response from the denizens of Chiswick) than any "credible" reports disseminated by the official Spanish channels. As for Goldman, they certainly doth protest too much. And as for "spurious correlation", we will revisit the realized correlation which will be determined after a few years, when all the filters masking the actual data will finally have been removed.

Full report below (pdf)

 

 

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Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:12 | 615091 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

The whole world economy is a massive fraud.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:37 | 615137 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The US has it's cool aid, Spain has it's Sangria, Germany has the beer...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:28 | 615352 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

 GS doth protest WAY too much, more or less establishing that this blogger is on to some truth--fraudsters should keep their cool better.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:14 | 615094 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

by their fruits you shall know them

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:30 | 615357 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

And note that the US number ALSO looks suspect.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:17 | 615097 Kina
Kina's picture

I love it when the big boys fight withe blogosphere as it immediatly validates and ligitmises the blog. Free advertising.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:35 | 615129 sumo
sumo's picture

It's a big tell by Da Boyz. They're afraid.

The anon. blogger may be incorrect (I'm not qualified to judge), but there something going on that Da Boyz want hidden.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:53 | 615174 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

They already hid the sausage. They don't want us to find it because it is actually worse than the anon blogger thinks. Was it Italy where we discovered that GS had helped them to hide debt by selling some stuff back and forth with new labels (a lottery I believe got sold and became an asset when it should have been a liability)? They may not want the world looking any closer at Spain's books.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:19 | 615099 heyligen
heyligen's picture

Nothing new. US fraud, banks fraud, Greek fraud, Spain fraud. Let's print a bit more and forget about it. Just the new normal  routine.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:19 | 615100 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

I suddenly realize why Krugman, Summers and the Keynesian sect are so panicked at the idea of a simple 5% drop in prices: an incredible and horrendous massive scam perpetuated since at least 1970 would suddenly be exposed in broad day light.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:48 | 615163 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

++

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:33 | 615123 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

He(they) fully deserve it for animal(taxpayer) abuse

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:20 | 615104 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

GS putting out rumor 20bil in stock to be SOLD today - hahahahaha

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:22 | 615106 Hedge Jobs
Hedge Jobs's picture

ha! "It makes little sense" Nielsen says! is he referring to the report or himself?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:24 | 615108 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Goldman's response.

I suspect that the reason why anyone cares at all is (1) the bad experience with Greek statistics (but there is no indication what so ever that Spain suffers from anything like that), and (2) a continued general scepticism towards peripheral Europe, so … anything goes.

Of course not. Desperate men DO NOT engage in desperate acts to save their power structure, their corrupt gravy train nor their very asses. Nope, there's no reason what-so-ever to even question the words of the mighty (and not so mighty) OZ.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:41 | 615143 UnRealized Reality
UnRealized Reality's picture

This is the point I was trying to make the other day.

Some one with morales, values, An axe to grind or

Balls to come forward.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:11 | 615202 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

And the reward to do so is what? A destroyed life, threats to the family, an IRS audit, jailed on trumped up charges? The various different ways the person with balls can be screwed (with) are endless. And are you expecting the "free" press to actually publish something that is demonstrably harmful to the status quo and it's advertisers?

See, the problem is that you think you live in a free country with a proactive and curious press, backed up by engaged and proactive consumers....ops.....citizens. And I suppose if you were the person with information that could help take down the Empire's lies, you wouldn't think twice about doing so, regardless what happens to your kids and wife, right?

BTW there are whistle blowers. But they have learned not to go public and instead leak the info to bloggers. Maybe you should stop reading the main stream media and try some alternative sources. Plenty of stuff there. Why isn't it in the MSM?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:23 | 615222 UnRealized Reality
UnRealized Reality's picture

You know what, you're right, we all should just

lay down and die, Since you have it all figured out. And yes, if I

had the means I would try to do something

about it. I would welcome the excitement!

PS It seems when somebody doesn't agree with your opinion, you

need to degrade the the person

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:31 | 615245 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'm not saying we should lay down and die. Try reading some of my articles. I consistently advocate taking action. The problem here is that everyone expects someone else to take action. Meaning everyone is waiting for everyone else to take action.

I work as an activist on the local county/community level. I'm trying to make a difference locally. It's something, no matter how small. That's where it needs to start. We won't make the big changes when we are so disconnected with our communities we don't know our next door neighbors name.

BTW rather than take umbrage with my attitude, why don't you get out there and do something? It doesn't take "means" to work in your community. Your question's are the height of naivete. Why don't you spend some time reading alternative sources of info instead of asking questions that are answered daily here and on other blogs?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:38 | 615259 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Maybe you should stop reading the main stream media and try some alternative sources.

This is really the only negative thing he said about you, or more to the point, an assumption he made that he does not have evidence. I did not see him "downgrading" you in that post. Could be ya'll have history and I am butting in were I should not.

I'm coming to the conclusion that the system quite literally is going to "break" and while us space monkeys argue inflation, deflation, conspiracy, incompetence, gold, stocks, bonds, mother nature through processes like entropy and harmonic resonance is "gonna fix it all soon" and  "put it back the way it ought to be."

What CD might be saying is Learn to Swim.

Aenima Lyrics

http://www.lyricsmania.com/aenima_lyrics_tool.html

Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCEeAn6_QJo

Wake that ass up.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:44 | 615275 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Don't just call me pessimist.
Try and read between the lines.

I can't imagine why you wouldn't
Welcome any change, my friend.

I wanna see it all come down.
suck it down.
flush it down.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:34 | 615939 downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

+e^(46+2)

 

so awesome. i have always loved this song because it is what we are all thinking and feeling

 

you're so right---

"Mom's gonna fix it all soon.
Mom's comin' round to put it back the way it ought to be"

 

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:53 | 615288 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

MsCreant,

After reading your post, I've decided that I need to tone down my rhetoric and assume a less cynical stance. I suspect I'm tired of saying the same things for over a year here on ZH and many years else where.

So when I come across a new face or set of ears, my patience is thin. Shame on me. Everyone started where this person is and I'm not taking that into account, which shows my intolerance. Ultimately the poster is correct in questioning my tone. 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:11 | 615320 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

That's how they win. There's only a fraction of honesty to a fracture of the world. Then they throw idiots at you till you get tired and frustrated and worn down. Throw in the assault of the judgement perverters that this board has been subjected too. And a few off the wall distractions.

It's like the king surrounded by servants and soldiers going I'm fucking you in the ass what you going to do about it. It's a boring old never ending cycle. Building the kings pyramid, building the kings railroad system, building the kings internal combustion world, building the kings green technology, building the kings information technology that destroys the king. Boring.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:48 | 615382 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Thanks for trusting the process. Been around you long enough to know your intent so I can trust you and be frank.

Lot of backbone to own your stuff. 

No shame or self flagellation needed, either, you were not awful. See it, note it, have some compassion for all of us involved (yourself included), move on. 

And CD, I don't know how to swim...there are more stages of this thing to go through to get through. I'm afraid no matter how I might think I have things figured out, that when the time comes, I won't man/woman up like I want to be able to tell myself in the grand story of "me making it through the crisis." The longer this thing goes on, the harder it is to keep preps prepped and family members alert. Things slip when they move on. So I feel responsible because others have ADHD or simply don't see it in their daily life so they are not worried. 

I really do come here for community. My family is great, but "Mom" seems like a pessimistic crack pot. Inertia is setting in.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 16:44 | 616613 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Thanks for rounding it all out, and the link.  Great stuff.

I know for a fact that CD is honest, compassionate, and real.  He is no different from any of us in that he has moods that encompass frustration and, yes, some zealotry.  Not a bad thing since points get made that a lesser person cannot do.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:12 | 615323 B9K9
B9K9's picture

I'm coming to the conclusion that the system quite literally is going to "break" ... mother nature is "gonna fix it all soon" and  "put it back the way it ought to be."

Exactly. I've consistently tried to move the general tone of the conversation away from investment & trading strategies towards a larger recognition: The Fed era is coming to a close

There is nothing at this point (actually, back in 2007, and probably all the way back to 1913) that anyone can do to stop it. Denninger has always been right about the math; his issue was that he, until recently, couldn't conceive that the bad actors were in actuality a banker-government criminal syndicate.

When one stops and considers for a moment what that really means, they may begin to sense the meaning behind Mako's ominous warnings. It's not pretty, and for those who have seen firsthand what a civil war looks like, you don't want to be around when long suppressed regional, class & racial divisions finally spring loose.

Like I've said before, one should try and wrap their heads around this wild concept: These are the good old days.

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:35 | 615369 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I've consistently tried to move the general tone of the conversation away from investment & trading strategies towards a larger recognition:

Tyler determines the general tone of this blog. Some out-spoken commenters might affect the tone of some comment threads. If you wish to have a fighting chance of influencing anything here, request to become a contributor. I'm sure many would like to see your thoughts up on the big screen aka the top three contributor boxes on the front page of ZH. 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:57 | 615406 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I agree, B9K9 is rock solid. May not want the responsibility.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:02 | 615416 Miss America
Miss America's picture

Hey there CD,

 

I really wish I could share more on this topic...  but I can't.

 

My advice to ANYONE willing to blow the whistle on their company is:

DO NOT DO IT!!!

Plead ignorance, and either quit, continue ignorantly, or just try to move to a new job if possible.

 

I'm still trying to convince someone close to me, to tell their story (and remain anonymous)...  but it's not a wise idea. 

 

Especially since their are many legal things in play with their situation and stockholders.

 

SarbOx is an absolute joke.

There is no protection, or compensation.

All the best,

Miss America - RH

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:31 | 615253 chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

Very good quote. Thank you.

Note that GS intentionally understates the striking similarity between Greece, Spain and Irelend. GS also intentionally isolate the problems to peripherals.

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:25 | 615109 Number 156
Number 156's picture

I don't watch data anymore. I don't know whats faked or not. I am all the way out of stocks. Zip, zero, Nada.

All I do now is sit back at a distance and watch it implode with popcorn in hand.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:56 | 615180 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

May I suggest gold and silver in the other hand. 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:08 | 615205 Number 156
Number 156's picture

Got it. And not on paper either.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:24 | 615237 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

+1315

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:38 | 615111 pamriallc
pamriallc's picture

this is what happens when you don't have a central bank that can pave over the poor economic foundation with newly issued euro's.  spain is almost without a doubt in poor shape, as advertised here.  you don't go to 24% unemployment and keep 98% of GDP without a printing press, which is what we're doing in the USA.  consider the "horror" of pulling credit from the USA with 70% of GDP as consumption?  imagine the horror of a robust contraction in spending at the consumer level--- and consumption as a percentage of GDP were allowed to drop to 35% where everyone else is?  yes---  you'd pull roughly $3 trillion out of the US economy.  interestingly enough, you look no further than the current additional indebtedness of the USA and you get (voila!) about $3 trillion in new debts which we're using to prop up GDP and while lawmakers are praying for jobs creation and "resumption of consumption" that just isn't happening in a system where credit is declining at a rapid rate.  nominally, it should be allowed to fall in order to add credibility to the system.  printing money for the sake of artificially inflating GDP is the "ultimate" form of *extend and pretend*  and what's left --- the end result --- is a government that will own the economy vs its citizenry.   too much management is a very serious long term drag on profits.  when the government "prints themselves ownership of the economy" that's added management.

 

shawn mesaros, pamria, llc

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:27 | 615113 john_connor
john_connor's picture

where there is smoke, there is fire.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:29 | 615115 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

It is not true until it is denied. Judging by the sheer speed of the denial... it is very, very true!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:36 | 615133 sumo
sumo's picture

Massive tell.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:31 | 615118 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Goldman just raised the bar of due diligence by attempting to defend the undefendable.

The bell tolls.

Similar intervention in blogs and blog material can now be expected not in the comment section (on going), but directly in dialog.  When this dialogue and delaying tactic does not produce the outcome wished more drastic measures will be taken,

These include direct threats and co-opt attempts of this news space (and similar news spaces) and then (when that fails) attack and shutdown via legal and direct methods.

More road signs that we all have previously placed on the road to .... hard times.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:30 | 615119 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

All that plundered gold from the new world and Spain does not even have a dick to show for it.

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:45 | 615154 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Most of that gold was used in the English war which they lost and turned Spain from a Empire like America is now into a broke 3th world country...

History repeats itself in so many ways...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:15 | 615217 Shameful
Shameful's picture

There are a lot of similarities to today. Spain was an economic powerhouse but to mismanagement their economy became dependent on imports from the world to support importing Euro goods. But even in their decline the Spaniards crooned it meant nothing because of the might of their military. Which even before the collapse was showing signs of weakness as pirates and other small time operates kept beating them.

Who does that sound like today?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:34 | 615128 Madhouse
Madhouse's picture

Poor blogger. I bet he can't even go on any Spanish version of CNBC to expose this fraud.

I hope he is at least short EWP...   (cough)..  

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:23 | 615235 SMG
SMG's picture

.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:35 | 615131 bernorange
bernorange's picture

Goldman isn't content to conquer the material world.  They want to win the internets too.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:41 | 615268 aheady
aheady's picture

I keep thinking of what somebody said last week comparing arguing online to the Special Olympics LOL

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 12:59 | 615843 iota
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:37 | 615135 Gonzalo Lira
Gonzalo Lira's picture

Actually, if the blogger's right, then this would make a lot of sense. 

 

The name of the movie? "It Came From Spain: EuroCrisis II"

 

GL

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:16 | 615216 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

I saw that on IMDB - MGM are making that one. Paramount have opted for "The Italian Job Seeker", Warner Brothers for "The Portugese Dodo" and Fox for "The French Disconnection".

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:37 | 615138 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

"Lies, damned lies and statistics" v. 10.00.56.666. Spanish edition

Anonymous blogger is probably an insider.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:38 | 615141 Madhouse
Madhouse's picture

also,, allowing government activity to be part of the equation should be made illegal once we reset this country sometime over the next few years (if we survive). As it is, you grow government and you grow GDP... another wonderful dance move by the 3-Card Monte players of the 80s and 90s..(Greenspan, Congress, etc)

AAAAHHHHHHHHHAAAHAHAHAHAHAAHH

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:51 | 615169 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

bbb..bb..but they have a Green economy!  How can this be? - Ned

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:42 | 615148 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

 

I took a interesting bus trip through rural northern Spain in both  Aragon and Catalonia and I can honestly say that rural Aragon looks like a third world country - the only thing that separates it from south America is the first class roads.

Arrived in the centre of Barcelona late on a Saturday night and people were partying like it was 1999.

Maybe the Rothschilds will again suffer massive losses from their adventures on the Iberian Peninsula.

The breakdown of the 19th century status quo and the coming global wars of the 20th century is beginning to rhyme.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:51 | 615167 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

someone at goldman prolly put out the blogger report. when goldman responds to it, it only gives it more credibility. they know that.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:57 | 615181 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Hey let's just relabel all debt as money ...             hmm w8 somethings smells here

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:58 | 615184 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The squid probably helped them cook the books and now that it has been discovered they are getting pissy. lulz

 

As for credibility I would be more likely to believe any random commenter on this board before I would a known criminal liar and mealy mouthed doubletalker like the squid.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:05 | 615199 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Once again, a slip is showing. A revelation here, a leak there. There's finally an aura of growing vulnerability to the Ministry of Lies as Global Central Banks drop the ball on full suppression of data. The great unravelling will be upon us eventually.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:07 | 615203 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

From the Delta to the DeMilitarized Zero. Sorry bad math joke.

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:11 | 615210 Djirk
Djirk's picture

cash flow cash flow cash flow

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:19 | 615224 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Bernanke will bail out Spain, aka whateverbank.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:20 | 615227 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Bernanke is on a shopping spree he intends to buy the entire bond market, the entire stock market, forex, foreign bonds, foreign stocks. crazy ben has gone completely meshugana,

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:38 | 615260 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Why not?  When you got to get the dollar down you have to find something to buy.  Good thing the dollar is like Visa, good anywhere for a quick purchase.  That has been my argument that hte Fed is totally capable of creating inflation no matter what, just start buying anything and everything.  Also means that even should they lose the power of the press they can console themselves with their vast holdings of real property bought with freshly printed fun bux.  Good work if you can get it.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:21 | 615232 linrom
linrom's picture

A combined fall in GDP of -24% would be consistent with an increase of unemployment of 9.4%.  With Spain's unemployment rate of about 8.2% in 2007, current Spanish unemployment rate of more than 17.6% correlates with US experience during the Great Depression where between 1929-1933 GDP fell by 45% and unemployment rose from 5% in 1929 to 25% at the height of the Great Depression.

Are you guys still waiting for your hyperinflation fantasy?

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:25 | 615240 Cui Bono
Cui Bono's picture

Regarding Spanish sausage... OT, but only a bit for this lovely madhouse...

Velo-KC, please advise- is Alberto C. a chinese tainted pork eatin' victim or a horse eater? It can't be his fault now can it??? sigh, CB

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:27 | 615244 glepo
glepo's picture

Hard to account for Black Market in official stats!!!! People register for unemloyment but not for paying taxes.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:32 | 615254 BaboonAss
BaboonAss's picture

Streisand effect, bitchez

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:56 | 615295 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It's hard to pull a semaphore lock on non centralized systems.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:17 | 615332 tom
tom's picture

Despite what Goldman says, this blogger makes a lot of sense. FT alphaville also carried this report and has checked and confirmed the huge discrepancy for the service sector, which is half the economy. Alphaville tried to contact some Spanish government economists but, figures, they were on strike against austerity.

The only plausible explanation anyone's coming up with is that GDP figures incorporate estimates of the gray economy whereas the sector activity figures do not. In other words, the GDP methodology apparently gives the government leeway to fudge the final numbers, simply by changing the estimated size of the gray economy. The Spanish government is apparently assuming that a big portion of people who lost their official jobs found unofficial jobs, thereby supposedly increasing the size of the gray economy, and partly compensating for the shrinkage of the formal economy. Nevermind that most informal employment has traditionally been in the home building industry, which is worst hit by recession, and thus seems a lot more likely to be shedding informal jobs, not adding them.

My first thought on this is, what have government revenues been doing? If they're off a cliff, that would support the conclusion that GDP is overstated. Ultimately it's not debt/GDP that really matters, it's debt/revenues.

A commenter on alphaville is claiming that the author is J.C. Barba, whom the commenter describes as a well known pessimistic blogger on the Spanish economy. The commenter seems to be getting this from the author in the pdf metadata, "jc". Barba co-wrote an article on the (allegedly his own) anonymous blog, in Spanish.

http://www.libertaddigital.com/economia/un-informe-denuncia-que-el-gobierno-oculta-una-caida-real-del-pib-del-14-1276403131/

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:33 | 615362 tom
tom's picture

According to Eurostat, Spanish government revenues fell from 41.1% of GDP in 2007 to 34.7% of GDP in 2009, a huge 6.4 pps. The average drop for the Eurozone was from 45.5% in 2007 to 44.5% in 2009, only 1 pp.

So if you're in the mood to be generous, you could say that Spain is incorporating a very generous estimate of its gray economy in its GDP figures. Which, by the way, isn't much use in repaying public debt, since it doesn't pay most taxes.

But frankly looks to me like this "jc" is spot on, Spain is outright lying about its GDP decline.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:57 | 615403 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Having now reread the paper, I think the data is very compelling--there has been a big fraud perpetrated, whatever the exact GDP numbers.  I think the blogger was wise to remain anonymous, and hope he didn't leave any traceable addresses; Spain and the ECB are not going to be happy about this.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:06 | 615421 bono
bono's picture

Spain is the euro battle field at the moment. You have no idea how bad things are here. 42% unemployment for young people (below 25) means no future in this economy. I only wish we could have politicians acting and not the pussies we have (mere servers of the banksters) This article is quite conservative but data is well compiled. 

Sudden and sharp was the best exit but they choose the long and painful way. 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:58 | 615627 duffelpud
duffelpud's picture

Same ol', same ol' from a culture that's been bankrupt since at least the days when new world silver-induced hyperinflation busted their bubble.  Their bastard child Mexico is a constant reminder of the leisure ethic they spread around the world as its drug wars rage just south of our border (and sometimes across it).

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 12:53 | 615830 Lost Pleiad
Lost Pleiad's picture

POR LA BOCA MUERE EL PEZ

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 19:52 | 617069 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Goldman is protesting to much.  For them to attack a blogger that they don't know or have a name too, tells me that he or she must not be that far from the truth. 

Sat, 10/09/2010 - 09:41 | 637573 senthil456
senthil456's picture

There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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