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Another Big EURUSD Vol Day After 130 Pip Overnight Rally In Pair Fizzles, Reverses

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today brings another confirmation that the only trading vol remaining in risk asset is not in stocks, but mostly in FX. After the EURUSD was trading in the mid 1.33s, a sudden surge of buying by European desks overnight took it to well over 1.3450....Only to see the entire move undone in a matter of hours. According to Market News, the reason for the nearly two big figure move has to do with yield plays (obviously), although we are confident that those wishing to establish better short positions in the pair, alongside Goldman's prop desk for example, are certainly welcoming any justification for the surge, as fabricated as it may be.

From Market News:

Euro-dollar extended its recent rally to $1.3458, as early Europe targeted and triggered stops through $1.3410/40, but the upside momentum quickly faded and allowed the rate to ease back to $1.3350. Euro demand was perceived to be driven by yield plays, boosted by Thursday's ECB Trichet press confenernce comments that were viewed as more hawkish than expected.

EURO SUMMARY: Opened in early Europe around $1.3343

$1.3383. The move up was seen to be driven by yield, with Thursday's ECB Trichet presser perceived to be more hawkish than expected and boosting eurozone yield. Euro-dollar had been edging higher into late NY trade, with early Asia taking it up to mark highs at $1.3365 before easing as Tokyo sold euro-yen. The rate eased to lows of $1.3322 before fresh demand emerged. The rate edged higher, stepping its way back up to $1.3350, with stronger demand into early Europe taking it up to retest the early Asia high at $1.3365. German demand emerged into early Europe which took the rate through a reported barrier at $1.3400, with momentum able to take the rate through $1.3410 where stops through to $1.3440 extended the move through the next barrier at $1.3450 and on to $1.3458. The rally quickly lost momentum, as analysts began to warn of over enthusiasm, with the corrective pullback triggering stops through $1.3375 and $1.3360 before finding support around $1.3350/45.

 

 

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Fri, 01/14/2011 - 08:32 | 875608 Star Warrior
Star Warrior's picture

Beautiful Head & Shoulders set up, Are we looking at 1:1 soonish?

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 08:49 | 875621 e_u_r_o
e_u_r_o's picture

with all the shit happening in eurozone and euro still not falling how the hell do you think we are going to hit 1:1. Some armageddon should happen in eurozone for euro to fall so much

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 08:36 | 875610 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

Just when I thought today was going to be a good day to buy gold bullion with Euros...

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 08:40 | 875614 youngman
youngman's picture

High volume in the Forex..high volume in the Gold and Silver markets....hmmmmmmm..something is up...

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 08:42 | 875615 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

How much of the this 3 day surge is based on pure stop run ? A large portion in my view . I added a short right at the top of this morning's spike . Looking good so far . The USD is well bid across the board but if the data due out soon is negative then we could be in for some serious whipsaw .

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 09:12 | 875637 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

I have a question. How much of Fx is just plain crap?

I mean the same group of banks owns the dollar, euro and yen. Aren't they sitting around a table with QEII going on saying "I think we have enough Dollars for now and before we can print more we need to stabilize the Euro and Yen", "Yes, I will have the squid put out a new price target on the Euro and see how much we can correct that way" "Get the Yen to "buy" some Euro debt, that should help".

From that perspective we have one world currency already. Now they are in full manipulation mode and trying to value something against itself. It seems like a shell game of trading worthless pieces of paper in a way to keep people interested in still playing the game.

Edit: Is there a central bank basket that can be compared to non central banks owned currencies or is it all owned by the same banks?

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 09:54 | 875713 shortus cynicus
shortus cynicus's picture

like a shell game of trading worthless pieces of paper

Fiat money is not worthless: believing in it, secures you against painful dead that banking cartel may impose on you by sending its chacals.

Main rule of the world: always expect Spanish Inquisition.

If in doubt, ask East Timor and Iraque inhabitatns, if they are any still alive.

 

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 09:07 | 875643 Orly
Orly's picture

While the EURUSD pair retraced the gains from yesterday, the EURJPY and the EURCHF have yet to correct.

Just sayin'.

:D

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 09:22 | 875658 iota
iota's picture

EUR/AUD ftw. Shame I took profit last night and closed :/

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 09:34 | 875664 Orly
Orly's picture

With the pair way stitching above the upper Bolli on the Daily, taking profits there is always correct, I think.

:D

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 09:55 | 875717 iota
iota's picture

A S/L with profit retention in mind would have paid dividends though :P

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 09:58 | 875726 Orly
Orly's picture

You can post a trailing stop but you would not get all the juice out of the orange there, either.  Better to get some pips then to try to claim it all.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 10:10 | 875752 iota
iota's picture

True.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 09:18 | 875651 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Have to use wide stops on all the mkts.  Wild swings.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 09:36 | 875677 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Looks just like Silver....

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 09:46 | 875697 Orly
Orly's picture

Most every risk/spec trade will look like that.

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