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Another Dollar Beatdown To Start The Day
Another precious dollar pounding moment, brought to you by the folks whose only noble intent is to push the market ever higher.
Don't forget: a dead dollar is victory for the momentum chasing bulls, with the acceptable side effect of killing the middle class. As for international trade, don't worry: who needs to trade when you have a "stock market."
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thoughts on 3 mos bill crossing below 10bps? i would think this will get a reaction out of D. Rosenberg
Who cares if there is an inverse correlation between the size of a country's financial sector and its economic stability. Obviously Washington doesn't. The boys at GS have their Veyrons on order, and that's all that matters.
I bet no more than 3 have pre-orders for the new Galibier
http://image3.examiner.com/images/blog/EXID6882/images/bugatti-galibierM...
With all that chrome and black, that car must be a bitch to keep finger print and dirt free.
We also have to note the equally remarkable rally the dollar just had. I think our Fed friends realized somebody had yanked away the fuel to raise the market today. Benny saved the day, though.
this is going to get really ugly really quick at this pace
FTSE through 50% Fibonacci retracement of the bear market. Leading the US markets, despite the fact that it's the US that has the weak currency. It makes no sense but who cares.
'What's good for the stock market is good for America'
Cartoon of the day:
HAHA! Man, I really hope this happens, I really do.
Nasdaq 100 real pe ratio at 100 times. Fitting really.
Plenty of people are derisking into cash-or were. The only thing is, look at volume on the stock market. Retail buying of stocks is totally dead. People are sitting on their devalued cash and are not interested in the stock market after losing 50% of their money.
The stock market is on cruise control,broken and totally devoid of interest. A better example out there is the bond market, which has competiting interests like the Chinese,PIMCO,The USG and the derisk trade.
I suspect one reason why the stock market is doing well is because the USG is a huge shareholder in all these stocks and does not sell.
Having a huge buyer that has no interest in making money makes the market function irrationally. The creation of a currency crisis is the next disaster that the capital markets have to deal with.
It is getting closer to the tried and true create a crisis moment to move the stumbling and bumbling herd.
Remember all those currency swaps? What would happen if the FED, which owns or owned all this foreign currency(which are stronger than the US dollar):
-Made money off holding all these swap currencies(they bought euros and pounds low and gave them dollars in the delevering disaster-the DXY was like at 89 or 90)
-Recirculated that foreign cash back into the system at a high exchange rate and took back more dollars(DXY at 76)
-Repatriated that exchange for dollars into the FED? Presto! The FED has more DOLLARS-more to either flood the system or recapitalize(it is broke, right.)
These are currency swaps (Cswaps) which means that at maturity or unwind, the FED has to give the FX back to the FCBs and get USD in exchange - the same amounts that were originally exchanged.
Anything they do with the Fx they have doesn't change that fact. The only way they could make "money" off of the transaction is to take the Fx and sell it outright for USD in the hope that the USD gets stronger (note that they are holding USD's head underwater so that it dies). Clearly this is counter to their actions.
The FED already has the FX on its B/S and in its electronic vaults. So I don't understand what you are saying.
That's why I asked-what ever happened to those nice cheap euros they got in October-Nov.
The FED does have to recapitalize, so I though that this would be a great way to scam the other FX's with the swaps. If they have a fixed rate, then what a blown opportunity
USD Index daily chart - neutral / bearish
Weekly chart - bearish.
Monthly chart - still bullish
more:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook
Oh yea it's because they are pushing markets higher, not because the government is straight printing money.
I'm just a simple caveman investor. What kind of shelter against a falling dollar exist? Things like FXY, FXE? What kind of ideas do you guys have to protect your dollars while sitting on the sideline in a "bear" crouch?
Grand Supercycle
USD chart using TLB
daily - trending down (reversal price needed to break trend is 77.02)
weekly - trending down (rev price to break trend is 78.31)
monthly - trending down (rev price to break trend is 79.35)
Just a different view of the dollar. There is going to have to be something very big to stop and reverse the current trends of the dollar.
Will an end to stopping quantitative easing in its entirety (by the end of the year) do the trick?
I'm beginning to hear in Congressional circles that raising the debt ceiling is meeting with some significant opposition. The Fed and Treasury had to play some accounting tricks just to get QE 1.0 expanded. Through some more trickery, the Fed has about $150bil more in reserve capacity, but is looking to expand the balance sheet by $500 billion more.
If they can't raise the debt ceiling, QE 2.0 is totally off the table.
Now having said all that, I have no confidence whatsoever that Congress will draw the line and say "no more".
I disagree. I don't think the dollar slide is designed to pump the S&P or is done without approval of Ben. The measures that were supposed to ease the credit flow and ease deflation stopped working. SO BB being creative came up with the new tool, dropping the green back. The trading desks are too happy to implement the will of their overload, because it allows 'em to gun the market. Expect all of the global US corporations to have better than expected sales due to the favorite currency environment and call the currency related benefit = a rise in the global demand.
If our government was sane, they would chose to kill the OIL by providing energy efficiency related subsidies (aka 0 interest rate for alternative power generation, etc.) Instead, they decides to temporary adopt the Asian export growth model to slow down the econ deteroation. (since it is obvious the US consumer is DEAD.) The only question remains, WTF will be buying all of the excessive global exports, penguins?
There is no work out here every day i price work and then find out it wont happen the construction industry is at a halt.no one gets paid and another company goes bust everyday. Did i deserve this do i deserve to lose my livlyhood my house my life to end up again with nothing by no fault of my own. I paid my taxes i played the game and worked hard for very little and never complained.
So if i lose it all can i just blame the banks and the yanks.
If i lose it all shall i get me a plane and take me out one of those big flashy buildings in Canary wharf? I hate you casino spinning scum so much i want you to feel our pain the pain of the real person being destroyed because of the bankers greed.
No ones gonna bail me out and i did nothing wrong.
I hope these bankers burn in hell. I really feel like killing the lot of them.
Your government sold you out to fat cat bankers. They sould out your country, and your children, just as they sold out ours. All for gigantic houses, fast cars, and toys.
Remember, remember the Fifth of November...
Aaaaah, the mating call of revolution. Your only crime was to believe in an external loci of control. Gather your assests, what remains, buy some irrigatable land, learn to farm. Remember 5 things, water, food, shelter, security, and transportation. In that order of importance. Good luck.
Deserve has got nothing to do with it. Remember that line? You played the bubble game. You didn't complain when you were riding high, now you want your ball back when the game has turned sour? Find a new game.
Bring me the head of Robert Prechter.
All air between 76 & 72, about $100 for gold.
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/732/1275.png
I'm in cash, but what I really want to do is take my money out of the US.
GOLD
The last time the current account was so small as a % of GDP, DXY was 120 and EURUSD was below par.
EURUSD rate differentials are incredibly small and certainly do not support such a one-way trend in FX markets.
So the more I look at it, the more I see room for a HUGE reversal in USD versus the other majors.
Yes, capital flows into the US are weakening. But precisely, the point of global rebalancing - and what the current account is telling us - is that US need less funds to fill its financing gaps, not more.