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Another Stagflationary Indicator: European Industrial Orders Post Steep Decline In March

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following the recent negative Chinese PMI print, the latest confirmation of the global economic slowdown/stagflation comes from Europe where Eurostat reported that EMI Industry Orders declined 1.8% in March, in line with expectations. This was the first M/M decline since September, although the Y/Y number was still a substantial +14.1%. Not surprisingly, previous months were revised lower: February revision: +0.5% m/m (+0.9%) January revision: +1.1% m/m (+1.2%). The momentum of previous months assured a 3.4%
average gain in 1Q. As Market News reports: "The drop in March was accentuated by falling demand for heavy transport equipment, which tends to be very volatile with a limited immediate impact on production. Excluding this category, orders fell 1.1% on the month and were 15.2% higher on the year. Intermediate goods orders increased 0.6% on the month and were 19.2% higher on the year, suggesting that the industry recovery will continue for some time. The drop in heavy transport demand helped drag down capital goods orders 4.6% on the month, giving a 14.5% rise on the year. Consumer durable goods orders plunged 6.8% in March and were 2.6% lower on the year. Still-sluggish consumer demand and competition from low-cost producers abroad have undermined capacity in this branch. Non-durables orders fell 3.5% on the month and were 0.5% lower on the year." And for those still wondering why there is a concerted effort at pushing the EUR lower, here it is: "Leading indicators suggest that demand will wane in the months
ahead. Manufacturers polled by the European Commission in April expected
new orders to lose steam in 2Q. The outlook index fell 5.1 points from
the record high in January to return to the level in July.
Still, their
assessment of order book levels continued to improve, thanks mainly to
higher export back orders. They estimated that orders on hand would
assure 3.7 months of production, up from 2.6 months in January." In other words: must keep that export dynamo turning or else.

More on the latest stagflationary leg down:

The factory PMI poll also signaled slowing growth in new orders, as the component dropped 3.6 points to 53.8. The ratio of new orders to inventories, a guide to near-term output, fell sharply to the second-lowest level since June 2009.

In Germany, demand surprised on the downside with 3.4% drop in March that still left orders 13.0% higher on the year. National data showed domestic orders down 3.5% on the month and foreign orders off 4.3%. Investment goods demand led the slide with a 7.2% fall, accentuated by a below-average share of bulk orders.

The Ifo institute's survey of German manufacturers this month signalled a further erosion in output prospects at the six-month horizon to the lowest level in more than a year, even though "great opportunities" are expected from export business, Ifo said.

New orders in France slipped 0.7% in March and were 10.6% higher on the year. Excluding heavy transport equipment the monthly downturn was 1.2%, led by pharmaceuticals, autos, high tech and optics, and textiles, national data showed.

French industry firms polled by the Bank of France last month reported a further contraction in order books. The Insee sector survey released earlier today signaled more erosion, mainly in domestic demand.

By contrast, Italy reported a 4.5% surge in orders after a modest upturn in February, giving a 22.2% rise on the year. National data showed a strong boost from foreign demand, especially for metal products and electric appliances. Manufacturers' assessment of orders was stable in April, practically unchanged for the fourth month in a row, according to Istat's survey.

In Spain, orders edged up 0.3% on the month, recovering less than half of the previous downturn to stand 10.1% higher on the year. Producers' assessment of order books remained depressed in April, but less so than in March, according to the Commission survey. Still, orders on hand should assure 2.8 months of production, they estimated.

We are still confused by the formal increase in the EURUSD target by Goldman's Thomas Stolper recently to 1.55, which certainly does not fit in with the G-7 agenda. We expect this to be revised lower shortly.

 

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Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:30 | 1304537 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Greece gonna be kicked to exit Euro

 

Germany wont allow more bailouts.

 

-Short Credit Agricole Hardly

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 10:50 | 1304981 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

ZAMG update on icelandic volcano plume over europe:

http://www.zamg.ac.at/aktuell/index.php?seite=1&artikel=ZAMG_2011-05-24G...

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:31 | 1304541 Josephine29
Josephine29's picture

Perhaps something else which has been coming up on the blindside is having its effect too.

The rise of the Swiss Franc has implications for Austria,Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania,Poland and Romania

http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/author/shaun-richards/

 

The Swiss Fanc went to new high versus the Euro yesterday which is more bad news for all those who borrowed in it...

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:32 | 1304547 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

+1

Bilderberg´s Meeting in Switzerland...

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:33 | 1304550 Bazooka
Bazooka's picture

DEFLATION has been occurring even during this two year rally!

No one wants to part with their dollars for a house, nor credit is available to buy. Banks don't want to lend or make it hard to get credit.

These are attributes of a credit implosion.

When credit disappears, the physical dollar becomes very cherished and its value rises vehemently. 

Store cash or cash equivalents because as this market continues the early stages of the next collapse, many will hoard cash at S&P 400 or lower levels..but we would have plenty as our cash was stashed before the crash.

Disclosure: Long VXX, FAZ, UUP + S&P Puts

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 10:56 | 1305003 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Yes, you will need lots of cash, because a roll of toilet paper will be worth more than a cartload of FRNs when TSHTF!

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:37 | 1304552 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

stagflation is transitory.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 08:47 | 1304587 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Everything is transitory, just a matter of time frame:)

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 09:02 | 1304628 Dolemite
Dolemite's picture

Oil approaching a stall point?

http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/

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