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I prophesize that for periods of time in the future NO AMOUNT OF US DOLLARS will be able to purchase gold.
I agree with Michael. Please go to this link to watch "I Love Jewels & Gold"
ps. i am long gold, even if (again imo) not for the best reasons ...
imo ... all writing is fiction, inasmuch as it pretends to translate events into words (that carry the fallacy of univocal meaning) that said (my apologies - to the gold/ammo/spam/run-bill-to-the-hill crowd - for the uppity academic tone): i like falak's writing, JonG's and the Seer's, all different, and for different reasons.
The graph here of silver price prediction 2011-2012 suggest, that, after bailout of JPM shorts etc by FED and temporary correction ( 40% ) in silver prices happening at 42-50 USD, which will last 1 year, in q2 2012 there will appear understanding in the markets ( perhaps related to unsustainability of the sovereign and total debt growth dynamics issue of the USA or hyperinflation possibility with current FEd printing approach) , or with realization that gold standard is the only option, silver will move up to 100 USD sharply and continue in 2013.
That sets the minimum USD value for gold standard ( silver not less than 100 USD, gold not less than 3600 USD) . In fact, it may be much more. But at least, in 1 year from now, silver and gold will push for their final increase before being fixed by some form of standard.
I don't know how this guy extrapolates so far ahead. I don't believe in crystal ball gazing. I do believe in manipulated markets and Oilgarchy plays, especially when they have their backs to the walls 'cos they've sucked the blood of the real economy, like today. At the cross roads of this global power play analysis I would wager, that TPTB (political and central bankers) and their plutocratic friends, will shutter the developed world economy into 'stagflation' until they are re-elected. The real hard times begin in 2013-2015 when the USA will have it's back to the wall...AS THE EM MARKETS, CURRENTLY WORLD CREDITORS, BUT DESTABILIZED BY BERNANKE'S CURRENCY POWER PLAY UNDERWAY, WILL HAVE REPOSITIONED in more consolidated positions, as they have money, resources and low standards of living. The US is thus buying TIME from its creditors in this interim period and all its doing (like the ECB in EU) is CONSOLIDATING THE NEW CONFIGURATION OF THE TWO TIER ECONOMY IN WESTERN DEVELOPED WORLD OF TOMORROW : the 1-5% have global financial power that they broker with the growth regions of EM, and the 95% middle class are invited (forced) to accept entitlement destruction and no economic growth and unemployment, in order to swallow the mega-debt mountain, for 10-20 years at their expense. When US/EU labor rates will then be in PRODUCTIVITY/RATE terms at par with the EM, which will have gotten more rich. Then the INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ARBITRAGE will begin all over again in the next bubble cycle. Brave new world...So seeing the rush to PM REALLY spike AFTER 2012...is not crazy...As to the size of that adjustment to move from fiat to hard assets depends a lot on how CHINA/EM will arbitrate their participation in the new world currency basket. So it is NOT just America-centric in terms of arbitrage evolution between fiat/hard assets; it depends on all global players and their collective agendas. As you know the civil society of China/India for traditional cultural reasons going back to pre-fiat days, (1971-RN-BW REVOKE), LOVES PMs. Keep that in mind as it will be ONE day conducive to PM bubble formation... like Nelson B Hunt, the silver 'dunce' for Red October. Just a play on words...Meantime, buy away PMs like throwing dice...
This is the sort of comment i like to see.
Even though it says we need to wait another bloody year before the big break out.
evry year its 'wait another year dearie' - its like my wife... (said in a life of brian accent).
and while the graph has the gravitas of something drawn by a hormonally charged teenager - i fucking like it man.
$100 silver and $3600 gold is adequate recompense for all the abuse we gold bulls have had off the johnny bravo and harry wanger types around here, i reckon..
and the Question is
1. How will you survive (between the old USD and the new Amero)
2. What will the next currency be based on
3. What is real money
4. What, when used as money, has prevented governments from Hyper-Printing/Hyper-Inflation (debasing their currency)
Current USA debt growth rate has entered the unsustainable superexponential growth part, so crash and correction is inevitable in 2-3 years time, shaving of at least 20% of it (3-5 trillion!) in one year. Here I speculate what are the options, and devaluation with gold standard ( or similar) introduction seems to be the most likely one (as compared to default or pure hyperinflation):
Politically, it will de-cooperate the west from emerging nations radically, causing internal political changes ( China, Japan if it still owns USA debt by then) and geopolitical consequences of such de-cooperation. In 2013, China will start changing its internal political course, 30 years of Communist New Economic Policy will stop, with all cosequences:
NEP ended when Great Depression hit the West. Same here, Great recession in action, Chinese aiming to overcome the West fast:
New Economic Policy was abandoned in 1928 after Joseph Stalin obtained a position of leadership during the Great Turn. Stalin had initially supported the NEP against Leon Trotsky, but switched in favour of Collectivization as a result of the Grain Procurement Crisis and the need to accumulate capital rapidly for the vast industrialization programme introduced with the Five Year Plans. It was hoped that the USSR's industrial base would reach the level of capitalist countries in the West, to prevent them being beaten in another possible war. (Stalin proclaimed: "Either we do it, or we shall be crushed.") Stalin proposed that the grain crisis was caused by the NEP men, who sold agricultural products to the urban populations for a high price. An alternative explanation for the grain crisis (which is more popular among western historians) revolves around the focus on heavy industry creating a significant consumer goods shortage; which meant peasants had nothing to spend their resources on, thus resulting in the hoarding of their grain.
The NEP was generally believed to be intended as an interim measure, and proved highly unpopular with the Left Opposition in the Bolshevik party because of its compromise with some capitalistic elements and the relinquishment of State control.They saw the NEP as a betrayal of communist principles, and they believed it would have a negative long-term economic effect, so they wanted a fully planned economy instead. In particular, the NEP created a class of traders ("NEP men") whom the Communists considered to be "class enemies" of the working class. Lenin had also been known to say about NEP: "We are taking one step backward to later take two steps forward", suggesting that the NEP would slowly morph into something else as soon as the economy was prepared.
Lenin's successor, Stalin, eventually introduced full central planning (although a variant of public planning had been the idea of the Left Opposition, which Stalin purged from the Party), re-nationalized much of the economy, and from the late 1920s onwards introduced a policy of rapid industrialization. Stalin's collectivization of agriculture was his most notable and most destructive departure from the NEP approach. It is often argued that industrialization could have been achieved without any collectivization and instead by taxing the peasants more.
I know communists inside out, have been living in the USSR for 27 years of my life. They are capable of anything, disregarding wellfare and human suffering.
JPM doesn't and won't need a Government bailout over its PM position (whatever that position is). A futures contract is exactly that, a paper contract, the terms of which may be amended. The governing body, under whom the terms of the contract are standardized may change delivery terms as it sees fit. JPM may, however, require some sort of bailout if the market moves significantly against its F/X or interest rate positions, which are orders of magnitude larger.
In the event of an amendment, it would be natural to see divergence between the value of the amended contract and the spot price for the physical metal.
The CIA answers to the same masters that the bernank does. Whatever they are told they will do. Fort Knox is a myth. The muslims hate everybody, we, well our country just position ourselves accordingly to capitalize on that hate.
Please learn how to post one comment, then reply if necessary, instead of flooding multiple comments, moslty unimportant to the conversation, as if you're conversing with yourself, so that people can read something other than your self important bull.
Mr.Victory- The Answer is Silver
At least it has real value
Gold is a rock
And since when do our clowns care about how heavily other central banks are into gold? The game continues.
We r probably togetherish on this then....
Do u think fort knox is full of tungsten? i've got a sinking feeling...
have the cia pissed it all away on arming muslims who hate us.
Big Duke. Agreed, it can and will keep on running. Just like all trends do, until they don't. Don't misunderstand, I'm not shorting gold or silver I am long as can be. BUT it will come crashing down. Especially when everyone is so certain.
You see rates going up already, do you think that means they are going to go down now. NO, The big money is positioning for higher rates and that is not bullish for gold or silver. Sure these things take time but rates will explode and those who are scared into gold will seek sure fire returns on government bonds.
Rates may go up but the dollar is devaluing faster than rates.
The cotton candy markets have been fueled by both liquidity (money printing) and the devaluation of every dollar.
Combine money printing with devaluation and crude doubling along with food prices and getting paid 10% per year in treasuries woudln't cut it.
If the long bond gets to ten percent, money will flow out of highly speculative positions into treasuries. Even Gross would have to start buying again. They will defend the dollar at some point, Long term support has not been broken yet, lets not start dancing on the dollars grave just yet. This is all speculation of course and I realize the end game is to bring the dollar down, but there will be nasty spikes along the way guaranteed.
If the long bond gets to ten percent...
If the long bond gets to ten percent...
I'll be 18 again and sporting a woody that would cut tungsten.
"If the long bond gets to ten percent."
If Pegasus flew out my ass I could take my talking pet monkey to Mars.
Where are they going to get the money to pay for that?
Been waiting for those bond vigilantes for a long time.
The dollar rise with rates.
Remember the past sure things, real estate, the nasdaq. Just remember. This time ITS NOT DIFFERENT.
I think I hear the echoes of the trumpets of the celebrations at the end of the war to end all wars...WWI...
Thanks for keeping on with your wrong point of view.
Gold is not in a bubble... yet.
Its hasn't outperformed in the last 4 months.
Real estate, dot com.... what r talking about? there is no comparison.
you should have seen it all here already? no ?
gold is in a 10 year bull run on a background of a commodity supercycle.
bernanke's influence may be big in usa but elsewhere its beginning to matter less, china now has only 15% of its exports to the usa. do the math.
it and other asian central banks are supporting gold, not qe.
that money is off into oil , cotton , food etc.
its ok to remind people to keep perspective but try to do it in one comment so its more pleasing on my eye.
First article from Martin Armstrong from outside Jail. He has been allowed to publish material till at least Sept. 2011, for now.
He comments that he expects a true collapse won't start till around mid to late 2015.
ANd when that happens dont buy the dips.
This isnt going to make me popular here but I dont care. ALL the bernank has to do is come out on a Sunday night with a surprise 1 % hike and all those who are leveraged to the ass in commodities are going to be FUCKED. The bernank knows this, the PTB know this, they are just waiting until all hands are on deck. Except for their hedge fund and banker buddies, so exercise caution. The same old game gets played every time. Don't think the bernank is so stupid. Anyways, he answers to a higher authority and he will hose the commodity bulls when the time comes.
What makes you think that the Bernank has a choice to do anything but monetize? Even if rates rise.
Somebody has to monetize the deficit. As long as these countries continue to live way outside their means, Gold will do well.
This is incorrect: " ALL the bernank has to do is come out on a Sunday night with a surprise 1 % hike and all those who are leveraged to the ass in commodities are going to be FUCKED."
Ben will have to raise interest rates above the real rate of inflation to tighten but first he will have to stop QE. If Ben does tighten this much he will destroy stock markets that he has blown trillons of dollars proping up. I don't think he will go there. To effectively tighten now Ben would have to jack interest rates near double digits...as Volker did.
All the fed would have to do to cause a sharp dive in commodities would be to SURPRISE everyone. All of these years of letting "the market" know in advance of every move has took the fear out of the bond market. It was fear that gave the "bond vigilantes" their power. It was fear that WAS the "bond vigilantes".
Without any surprises by the central bank, everyone games the system. The Fed has used this to keep interest rates down, if they want to raise interest rates effectively, they will have to bring the fear back.
Volcker knew this.
It's not about The Bernank being perpetually stupid, although his prognostications and machinations suggest otherwise. He knows that there is a mathematical reality heading his way no matter what he does.
Dance Pilgrim, dance.
Dunno, as long as he keeps up with QE, not so sure how big of an effect he can have on inflation with a gradually rising interest rate. And as long as inflation is with us, i don't see the commodities getting hit as much as equities. jmho
The boat is tilted HEAVILY to one side. At some point soon they are going to wipe out the folks who are heavily into commodities. Just exercise caution. I follow trends, but I am constantly on alert.
Fair point. But who among us is 100% (or anywhere near that) of their assets in gold? No one I know, except perhaps ZH's Chumbawamba.
Perhaps the main take-away point is DIVERSIFICATION! Anyone could / should have 5% - 10% of their net wealth in gold (many say higher, some say MUCH higher). Even mainstream money managers will concede 5% - 10% in gold is OK.
Disclosure: I am at 11% in gold and other PMs.
But who among us is 100% (or anywhere near that) of their assets in gold?
But who among us is 100% (or anywhere near that) of their assets in gold?
That would be me, but then I call it "inventory".
Sure, I own gold, but.....
This article is vapid at best, and beneath ZeroHedge.
hey, just enjoy the gold comments, with this middle east turmoil and japan meltdowns i feel i've been starved of this sort of chat.
and anyway , its m.victory , just another oddball waiting for the rapture... not exactly jeff neilsen.
In gold we trust.
Just before the dollar goes totally belly up, gold and silver will cost trillions of dollars per gram. But all those prices are meaningless. All that matters is, we're holding the value of our savings when we hold our savings in gold or silver.
Yes, it's an honest way to hold wealth for future (whenever one feels the time right).
Agree, the strength of this article is that it says GOLD! And so the comments are by the gold dudes on ZH just now and we can chew the fat...
Let me begin with my updated thoughts.
i bought into the recent weaknesses with both physical and miners.
Looking good at the moment, and i find myself positive for the next few months, even though it looks like QE2 will end. It will. ZH is great but it should not be ur only source of information and the consensus is that QE2 will end... officially anyway.
there is little doubt it will continue in another form but the 'official end' should lead to some weakness. but somehow i feel it will be not make a big dent in the price.
even though china is tightening...
maybe its because turd F has called gold at $1600 by june or is it i have to admit i'm a gold bull.... more a gold dairy cow.
is the break out upon us?
BigDuke6... The Fed stopping QE might have some effect on PM prices but not a great deal. Until the Fed stops QE AND jacks interest rates above the real rate of inflation PMs will continue to rise against the dollar...And, the real rate of inflation is far more than that stated by the government.
My two cents...
'AND jacks interest rates' - i hear you...
but thats not going to happen.. with unemployment now chronically above 10% they cant until other factors take hold,
we will either accept the new normal of 15-20% unemployment or civil unrest.
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