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Try on the concept of "bubble." Apple will be nothing a few short years from now. Mark it down. What happens when Chinese labor is paid fair wages, for starters? Their products are useless luxuries, the last gasp of a consumerist society buying silly luxury toys.
1. The MadHedge Dude said it himself: Apple is a cult. How long can it draw new memebrs?
2. Two million iPads sold? Did you know that until recently you HAD to use a credit card to buy it? Cash was not accepted? Well, since most of the iPad/AAPL fanboys are "creative types", i don't expect them to pay their credit card bill in full. Ever. Eventually their credit will be cut off, and so will be their electricity, water, gas, internet and wireless services. what then?
3. Unlike the 1980s, when MSFT managed to beat AAPL witht he new, but inferior, UI, AAPL almost went under thanks to its' "closed" model. This time it's different: AAPL had a 2+ year head start on the competitors. But now, droid is NOT inferior to apple stuff as Windows used to be for nearly a decade. As Droid-based devices reach "critical mass" it wil attract greater and greater share of developers. In 2 years AAPL may already be a distant #2
4. ' If the company’s multiple expands to its pre crash average of 35 X.." -- 35X ??? Are you sure 35X is not too low? why not 50? or 60? after all, iAnything are so addictive, they act as a drug, users can't get enough of them!
i've yet to see any mega-cap, let alone a 2nd largest mega-cap, where anythign near or above 20X was jsutified long term. But i suppose this time i have to "think different..."
Apple products are only revolutionary to Apple fanboys. If you're willing to spend 10 minutes learning how to use a PC you can easily find hardware that does twice as much at half the cost.
The iphone needs an app for reliable cell service.
MHFT cherry picks a lot of his touts. TBT to the moon was a prognostication a while ago, too. Yesterday he was singing the praises of of Charles Nenner shorting the equity indexes on the second week of January this year, which was right for 15 days, then wrong for the next 4 months. Not too impressive. He does like gold.....hmmmm....Maybe Apple will get to $1000...these dollars you speak of...how many of ounces of gold do they represent? A Google of dollars per oz?
The iPhone needs an app to help the user get a life.
I think the good news is all priced in. The ipad has to cannibalize some PCs...that is at least $500 a unit negated sales. I have owned iphones since the first one. It is a cool smartphone, BUT Apple hooking up with A Terrible Telephone Co (ATT) was a big mistake. I have spent hours with them, replaced iphones, and got nowhere but dropped calls. The ATT rep said, "well, the chart says you have service, and you say the calls do initially connect, so then, you get 3G." I respond, "sir, if you bought a new car and it started everytime you tried, yet stalled every time on the road, would you say the car was performing to spec?" silence.
I have bought 4 macs, itv, 4 iphones. This will be my last, if only just to give Apple a little bit of its own medicine. Am I the only one?
As a daily ZH reader, I sometimes forget there are still millions of Americans with good jobs (in which they feel secure), ample discretionary income, and only a dim awareness of all this "economic downturn" business. For them the new and cool are always worth premium prices. Others in similar financial circumstances know that nothing lasts forever, and are constantly looking for ways to convert current surplus to future safety.
As our national deterioration progresses more will move from the first group to the second, adopting more mature priorities. For this reason I consider Apple to be a coal mine canary. The day they can't automatically sell out anything they come up with will mark a new turning point.
I think many of the apple faithful are going to get annoyed with the high priced products (especially if things get worse economically), and they will tire of the marginally improved 'new old' gadgets. [Lets ignore the fact that many of the improvements should be in the first generation models... like multi-tasking, cameras, perhaps expandable memory in the future and usb ports for printing in the future]
Now, I think it is harder for them to innovate with inventing the next 'must have gadget' then it is for their competitors to undercut their prices with similar devices.
Speaking of MHFT pics. Hows RIG at $51 working out for everyone?
RIG has a big support base right here from $44 down to $42 from late 2008.
I would like to see a bounce from here. If markets happen to bounce by the sheer grace of God RIG could be a buy.
It will see $1000 eventually, but by that point $1000 will buy you an extra value meal and a couple of mini-bottles of Jack.
Apple, has a problem, it's called bandwidth, and usage.
Jobs demo went to hell yesterday.............the airwaves are saturated, and the deal w/ going to AT&T exclusively, is going to bite em in the Azzz.........
Customers are mad as hell....Verizon looks to gain a lot of new customers IMHO.
All the US carriers are feeble compared to the rest of the world. Come to Asia or go to Europe and your mobile hardware will work fine wherever you go.
Those who wish to divine a new model for American business would be well served by studying the success of Apple. It maintains it's critical intellectual mass in the US and manufactures at low cost in China. Even with the Honhai labor cost increases it will maintain very attractive margins. Culturally it's products are sought across national barriers. It has a pipeline of products that are consumer friendly, something that is under estimated with aging demographics world wide. It's competition just does not seem to understand the concept of an integrated software/hardware product.
If there is a stock to buy this is it.
This sounds remarkably similar to all the $900 a share forecasts for Google when the stock was at $750.
Let me guess. This is different.
Apple is in a bubble.
All assets are going to get whacked, and AAPL will not be immune in the next 24 months. That said, they are going to come back faster and stronger because Jobs has assembled a monster lineup of talent in logistics, finance, marketing, and tech. No other tech company even comes close.
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