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Apple: Selling The News?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Update: Steve Jobs is not participating on the earnings call

While Apple's results were surely impressive, and we are waiting for the call Q&A for more details, we may have finally gotten to the proverbial sell the news event in the iconic company. After surging to a high of $357, the stock has since dropped almost back to the pre-halt levels, and at last check was trading at $344.66, granted to after hours volume. The action does beg the question, however: with 190 hedge funds in the name, who will be the marginal buyer especially since with Jobs now gone indefinitely the possibility of another beat's beat is seemingly getting increasingly problematic.

 


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Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:17 | Link to Comment NoLongerABagHolder
NoLongerABagHolder's picture

BTFD you FI.... even it if only lasts for 4 minutes - which is an eternity anymore!

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:17 | Link to Comment dr_teeth
dr_teeth's picture

haha

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:08 | Link to Comment Slash
Slash's picture


some more math....so aapl just made 6 billion in profit in Q4 2010. Let's be incredibly generous and assume they make 6 billion every quarter for the next 5 years....or 120 billion over 5 years. Let's also assume the investor can earn 4% ri...sk free for those 5 years, that future 120 billion is worth just under 99 billion today. In other words, the next 5 years of aapl's profits (assuming they continue to make at least the same amount they just did every quarter) is worth 99 billion today at 4%....a company is only worth it's future profits plus SE (or as Buffett would say "the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life"), so toss on another 47 billion in SE on top of the 99 billion and we have 146 billion. Again, the market is valuing the entire company at 314 billion.....

where will all this future growth come from? the 42 million (and increasing) americans on food stamps? The Chinese farmers who are somehow going to magically wake up 1 day and be middle class and have enough disposable income to blow on less effective, less powerful, and less useful laptops (ipads)? Not saying it can't keep going up irrationally for god knows how long....but retail is playing a risky game of hot potato. After hours, it's pretty much moving sideways....

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 20:48 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

Slash,

good question though totally irrelevant in the POMO driven market of today...

However, looking 6 months from today I like the idea that we'll have a POMO vacation (or fear driven selloff now of such an event then) that would take place when current POMO ends in July.  I don't think w/ oil above $90 and food at all time highs QE3 would be appreciated this Spring or early Summer.  Would seem a breather or just the sell off on concern of a POMO break could see a nice fallback of 10 to 20% real soon?  And then POMO could again magically appear on the back of lower commodities and pick up MBS, MUNI's, T's.

I could see a temporary top here any day on the best of news threatening to cut off the mainline POMO.  POMO won't go away but the uncertainty around it could be the justification to take profits, run the market back a bit, and start over?  I wouldn't buy in expectation but look for a 20dma break as the buy in and stop out.

Thoughts???

Of course this is all just fun and games on our way to destroying our nation but what will be will be...might as well talk about completely irrelevant, central bank driven equities on the way.  In the end, all this shit will look like the monopoly money it is but til then it aint.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 03:57 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

You all summed it up about right. Even if your wrong 50 billion, the stock is way overpriced and now that everybody's talking about a price target of 400$ I think it's just becomming one overly giant bubble.

THEY MAKE PHONES AND PC!

Like I said. 400$ and I'm shorting it with everything I've got on put options that go 24 months.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:17 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

"Job'less recovery"

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Saleless, marginless Record breaking corporate profits.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:17 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harry did you put a parachute on those golden Apple shares of yours? Theyll need em, or auger into the ground real soon. Damn thing might be opening under $300 tomorrow from the looks of AH.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:20 | Link to Comment Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I think Harry traded intraday for a quick 10% scalp'

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:26 | Link to Comment HarryWanqer
HarryWanqer's picture

Once they get Jobs another liver from a Foxconn suicide it'll be 20% to the upside.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:35 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

The trade is so crowded another 3% hit will unleash a suicide firestorm

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:36 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Double the reverse trolling double the fun. LOL

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:51 | Link to Comment Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

+ he he

I thought Harry was Hamy until I saw the moniker! Question everything!

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:16 | Link to Comment mule65
mule65's picture

Great.  Two imposters now.  Hamy and this wanQer.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 20:11 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Nobody said defeating a bunch of liars who are trying to leverage a 50 percent cognitive disconance of authority reserved for some, into a 67 percent normalcy bias and the greatest fraud perpertrated since the great depression attempt would be easy. You better pay attention, you better connect dots and you better alway ask yourself does this make sense. Hamy and wanqer are probably just trying to keep us on our toes.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:18 | Link to Comment clymer
clymer's picture

I use a droid (Samsung Galaxy S Fascinate - rooted with no issues using wifi tether)

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:08 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Gotta hand it to you HW. Regardless of your position on AAPL, this is still funny as hell.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:29 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Two things: 

AAPL is up 18 bucks from the low this morning and above the closing price - hardly a sell the news.

The "update" that Steve Jobs is not on the CC is comical. Of course he's not!! He just took a leave of absence.

Watch for this to trade up to 350's short term but not much more until something comes out about Jobs. Regardless of what any analyst or Cramer may say, Jobs is THE innovator of all these products. Without him a strong company but not an innovative one.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

We got a Wanger!

Speaking about jobs, what is U 6?

Wait, we don't need jobs when we have inflation!

Inflation expectation up 60% in 6 months – Thanks Ben!

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Dolar in a vortex
Dolar in a vortex's picture

I hope it opens at 300, I got stopped out at 327 this morning.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:19 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Their killing me.  I laughed so hard I almost spit out my soda.

 

Just finished a round table on Bloomie talking about AAPL.  Surprise surprise, they all love it.

 

One guy actually said if Jobs were to leave it would be no big deal.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:20 | Link to Comment HarryWanqer
HarryWanqer's picture

AAPL will be the catalyst that brings in the Retail Investors.  $500 by 2012.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:22 | Link to Comment Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

What an epic call ... like general jim sinclair, but, I think you have a better shot'

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:29 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

yea - like epic fail. He's a terrible shot caller if you look at his history online. More gambler than trader. He's the lead frontrunner in any bull market, but he gets beaten down Rodney King style and whimpers away when the market goes south (e.g. - May 2009).

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:37 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You got your lips on the wrong ass facilitator.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:51 | Link to Comment reading
reading's picture

Ok, this mutual infatuation between the two of you is getting kind of embarrassing for the rest of us, why don't you get a room.... 

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:22 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

You are referring to the price of gold/ounce.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:25 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Referring more to the net worth of the stock market when the Fed stops proppin' Harry's and Wall Street's gambling addiction

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

You made me come.

Please become a stand up comedian.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:03 | Link to Comment faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

I think this one is a lot more effective than "Hamy"...you have to look really close to see the difference.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:31 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

It's actually quite hysterical and telling of the posters here that they can't tell the difference between your name and mine. Not to mention, my posts are usually quite a bit longer and informative than one liners.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 20:02 | Link to Comment Bear
Bear's picture

Wow ... this is like plaqiarism ... sorry Harry. I just hope no one jumps on my alter ego, Bare

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 03:30 | Link to Comment faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Actually, what it's telling is that you're a self-caricature that is easy to mimic. A one-trick pony.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:20 | Link to Comment slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

Monetize The Dip Bitchez!

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:22 | Link to Comment spongeBOB
spongeBOB's picture

In other news ...Piper Jaffray is raising its price target on shares of Cree, Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) to $85 from $65.

Hope you didn't take his advice. CREE is dumping 13.5% AH after a miss.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 20:21 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

lol NICE!

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:21 | Link to Comment faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Maybe this medical leave is because they finally figured out how to keep a head alive in a jar indefinitely.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:25 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

"Jobs Brain" ala "Donovan's Brain" B&W??

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

...such a shame the really smart guys who create stuff go down to serious injury or disease. I can think of hundreds of financial fuckerz who truly deserve an undesirable medical event....yet they live and breed on.

Only the good die young, etc., etc.....but just goes to show you  that death is the great equalizer. No exceptions.

 

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 20:45 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Sure, the gobbling mescaline like pez had nothing to do with his current state.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:30 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

but, but, what'll we do with the pickles?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:25 | Link to Comment HamyWanger
HamyWanger's picture

I sold all my AAPL shares just before the reports.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

hahaha

what a child!

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:35 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

LOL that's hamy.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:41 | Link to Comment Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

the double 10% scalp whammy

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:26 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

tommorrow that will look like a good move

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:53 | Link to Comment reading
reading's picture

Of course you did...just like you always do.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 20:21 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nice move Hamy!

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:25 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

who will be the marginal buyer especially since with Jobs now gone indefinitely the possibility of another beat's beat is seemingly getting increasingly problematic.

The FED. It's their job to be on the wrong side of the trade isn't it?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:29 | Link to Comment Mudflap
Mudflap's picture

Well, if it's good for a banker somewhere in Eastern Mongolia then The Bernank doesn't want to be right!

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:28 | Link to Comment threefingerscam
threefingerscam's picture

With so many funds holding so many AAPL shares, this is the perfect time to unload those positions. 66M shares so far today, at least the top 4 or 5 could get out.....

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/have...

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:33 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Just like they got out of their MBS

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:44 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Going red AH>> Tim sounds somber on cc, like Steve isn't coming back.  No Questions about Jobs..Like he doesn't exist.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:32 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Going red??? It's up over 5 bucks from the closing price and 18 bucks off its low of the day. Hardly going red.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:47 | Link to Comment whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

realpolitik: if apple crashed 50 pts tomorrow the bernank would unleash QE2.01 to save the 200 hedgies and their bonuses. no fuking doubt. what do you think taxpayers are for (dangled preposition)? 

the bernank and the hedgies are your masters. you are the taxpayer. so pay already. jeez.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:44 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Where is Gil Amelio when you need him?

 

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 21:21 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Still trying to buy BeOS?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:45 | Link to Comment ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

Maybe this is naive, but I am asking how many of those I phone sales are pre-booked prior to the Verizon announcement?  Wouldn't Verizon have to place an order for a whole lot of phones in anticipation of the launch in Feb?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:51 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

I tell you, even as a bear,  I am sad.

Apple WAS, always HAS been, and always Will be, all about Jobs. Last American entrepenurial hero.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:46 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

I miss John Scully. But then again I miss the O'Jays

 

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:52 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

LOL...to think they hired Scully.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:55 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

They had intended to hire John Scullion

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:54 | Link to Comment Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

200 upgrades tomorrow and price target to $2,000.  Hopefully that will get all of the Hedge Funds and Banks all out.

Plus, Goldman needs to put it on their Conviction Buy List tomorrow.

Cramer needs to keep his mouth shut.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:08 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

JC must be creaming in his blankie after the big beat. Silence is a foreign language for that booyah. He'll whip up a whole week's worth of shit as the carnival barker bringing in the marks. Look ... the blind now see !! 

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:47 | Link to Comment erik
erik's picture

There is a clear trend in earnings so far.  Beat, buy initially then sell.  JPM.  INTC.  Will AAPL, IBM, WDC join the crew tomorrow?  Remember Intel finished after hours up nearly 4% the day it reported, only to lose it all back and then some the very next day.

Stocks above pre-release prices:  JPM

Stocks below pre-release prices:  AA, INTC, C

The leader ranks are thinning even more quickly now.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:53 | Link to Comment tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

soo way off topic...but anyone see (the possible) Geico extra normal Bernak Bears spoof?  at the end of commercial one bear says "Did we just blow your mind?"  think they capitlaizing on the 4,000,000 hits on youtube?   Nah prob not....

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 00:37 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Extranormal bears:  So easy, a caveman can do it! :>D

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:53 | Link to Comment erik
erik's picture

I think Wikileaks releases the Bank of America data near earnings on Friday.  Force the Bank of America brass to answer questions on the conference call.  That would be very clever.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:54 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Isn't Cramer still sticking with $1200 GOOG?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:56 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

ABC consumer confidence flailing around and back down again this week

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:01 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Love that INTC beat also

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:09 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Good when brown people come to shoot them. You can body guard for them.

http://teledataesys.wordpress.com/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1RNxqBggD4

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment Buttcathead
Buttcathead's picture

I aint buy'n that junk.  no F'ing way.  it's a Zombie Market.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 18:59 | Link to Comment SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Stupid question but what application is used to get these screenshots?    Is that a Bloomberg terminal?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:05 | Link to Comment erik
erik's picture

yes

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:02 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

they sold the news last quarter as well!!!!

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:35 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Nobody's "selling the news"!! It's up over 5 bucks from the closing price and up 18 from the LOD. Wow, I can't believe the misinformation on this site!

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 20:25 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Lookin very skittish there Harry....same post 5 times over in this thread?

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 00:38 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Harry is really an A.I. program -- ya heard it here first! :>D

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Great. Apple has some good earnings.  Happy for them.  Are they an indicator for the American economy at large? No way, and one should not suppose they lead "folks back into retail."  That's just dumb.   Same with IBM.  Good news, but tells you nothing about the macro-situation.  Just tells you about 2 companies, each a formidable competitor.

Jobs is, regrettably for him and Apple, no doubt months, perhaps weeks away from checking out of the Big Hotel. That would be my guess, and not a very hard guess to make.  I think it is big news for Apple stock, but not the end of the world.  On the other hand, while Apple has certainly had a good run, it's not like they make something you have to own. They are a gadget maker. Others make the same gadgets. Maybe not as cool looking, but that's about it.  So stay in it, or choose to get out. Either one, right now, is a good call, it don't matter one way or the other. But I do know Apple, like Jobs himself, is not exempt from the laws of gravity, and rust never sleeps. 

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 04:52 | Link to Comment RichardP
RichardP's picture

Jobs is, regrettably for him and Apple, no doubt months, perhaps weeks away from checking out of the Big Hotel.

I wonder if Steve would donate his heart to Dick Cheney.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Jobs is moving into the Foxconn plant in China to become a father figure/cult leader to the girls. Think Koresh in designer jeans.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Let us hope that when Jobs takes his last breath.  Hopefully not soon. That it happens the day before earnings and on a holiday.  Wonder if the Board would keep him on life support  just to time it just like Jobs would have wanted.

Headline would be Jobs Granted a leave of Absence, but will remain the CEO as his feedign tube is removed.  They will keep the ventalator working until earnings are released.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 21:52 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Maybe he can present at MacWorld from beyond the grave...

 

"...and one more thing."

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 20:08 | Link to Comment Salinger
Salinger's picture

do you suppose that when Steve finally sheds this mortal coil, (which could be 50 years from now) that it will be 24/7 cable news coverage, an address from the oval office and Elton John or perhaps Lady Gaga rewriting one of their songs? - this guy and his company are like royalty even deities.  It's quite a commentary on society

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 20:25 | Link to Comment faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Analysts didn't even ask about Apple's future during today's conference call...I think they're too afraid of hearing the truth:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-blows-chance-to-question-ap...

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 21:26 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Of course its selling off. The POMO guys had to go home. They have families too. Tomorrow is another day. The POMO crew will ride this puppy to $300.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 22:15 | Link to Comment Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

FYI, Jobs rarely participates in the earnings call, even when he isn't on sick leave.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 23:17 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Apple won't be able to produce what they said unless they come up with a new type of technology like Nanotechnology working devices or something.  Steve Jobs is having trouble with his health again (some say he should have just quit is job and gotten healthy) and is going out.  I've been hearing rumors that apple is losing money left and right from the market and also competitors edging into the arena to compete.  I'm willing to bet any sucker that things that apple is going to continue up is totally wrong.  If anything they will have 5 years, but it will start down.  And I wouldn't be to surprised if they don't do a stock split.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 09:19 | Link to Comment TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

Huh? IDC reported yesterday that Apple had 89% of the market share for tablets in Q3. That doesn't include the Christmas quarter, wherein I will be you a crisp dollar bill the percentage is even higher.

In the tablet market today, they have no competition. And by the time Google gets there, and HP gets there, it will likely be too late.

I care not what the stock does, but it is clear that the iPad is a insanely high-margin product that against all odds has duplicated the success of the Ipod and Iphone: namely, they created a entire product market from thin air, and then dominated that market.

Never has a company done this three times in ten years.

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 09:43 | Link to Comment whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

appl's plunging bottle rocket blast off was more surprising than looking in my shorts and finding the correct genitalia. whoever says markets are unpredictalbe is a bloody boatload of bullshine.

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