forefront to defend and generally shout about what they consider
important. I have seen some pretty insane logic put forth by one side or
the other. We have guys like Paul Krugman screaming that we absolutely
have to be spending more and running up the deficit/debt to Warren
Buffet who thinks that the growth in debt should be limited to no more
than 3% of GDP.
The problem is that EVERYONE is talking his or her book. I think very
few are making any sense at all. An interesting example comes from Scott
Hochberg (Strengthen Social Security Campaign) who wrote an article for the Huffington Post about illegal workers and why the country should not tighten up the E-Verify standards.
What possible reason could Mr. Hochberg give for defending the status
quo where we have 8 million illegal workers in the country at a time of
record unemployment? Answer: It would be a disaster for Social Security.
I have a very difficult time with the idiocy of this position. To make
matters worse Hochberg has his facts wrong. From the article:
E-Verify is a tool designed to prevent the employment of undocumented workers in the United States.
BK: This is correct.
E-verify
would remove millions of taxpayers from the pool that pays into Social
Security, thus weakening the solvency of the Trust Fund.
BK: This is where I go nuts. The argument put forward is that the
illegal workers contribute to SS and that without them SS is bankrupt. Yes, that is true. Without illegal worker’s contribution SS would be in deep deep trouble today. But does that mean we have to sustain illegal workers? Some numbers:
Of the
approximately 8 million undocumented workers, it is estimated that about
two-thirds of them pay payroll taxes into the Social Security Trust
Fund, accounting for $12 billion in 2007.
Undocumented workers have contributed somewhere between $120 and $240 billion to the Trust Fund, accounting for 5.4 to 10.7 percent of its total assets.
The numbers used here come from a very significant source, the head of
SSA, Mr. Goss. I wrote about this when he first made the remarks last
September (link).
Note:
I think the numbers have to be higher than what has been indicated by
Mr. Goss. If the number is (only) $12b in 2007 it implies that the
average earnings of the illegal workers is less than $20,000 per year. I
think it is closer to $35k, which would put the annual number for
improper tax receipts closer to $20 billion annually!
The article goes on to describe how serious things would be if we did not have the illegal workers contributing to the till:
According
to the chief actuary of SSA, without the contributions of undocumented
workers, the Trust Fund would run out of assets six years earlier than
estimated in the 2010 Trustees Report.
BK: I think it would be much more than six years. If SS backed
out all of the illegal contributions that have been made it would be
busted today.
Here’s the sentence that took me over the top:
Any undocumented worker that pays taxes provides a net gain to the system (since they don't collect benefits).
BK: This is complete and utter bullshit. I don’t know if Mr.
Hochberg is lying to us or if he is just ignorant of the facts. The
reality of this crazy situation is that illegal workers who contribute
to SS have the same rights as any natural citizen to receive retirement
or disability benefits. The only difference is that the illegal worker
MUST receive their monthly benefit checks outside of the country. One ex
SS worker clarified these facts at the Angry Bear blog. Her words:
I was the manager of the SS office in Northern Santa Barbara County.
Once
a person returns to his country of origin, s/he may apply for SS
benefits and receive them abroad at any American embassy or consulate.
He just can't receive SS benefits inside the US. This is well known and
is commonly done. Also, even if the worker never receives a dime in SS
benefits, his wife/widow and any children legally here can receive
benefits. SSA has a large component which processes such claims.
BK: I promise you this is correct. I have independently confirmed this. If an illegal worker pays into SS for the required number of years, they get benefits. Period. Mr. Hochberg is flat out wrong on the facts.
Consider the lunacy of the position taken by the defenders of Social Security. Another way to state their position could be:
We
consider Social Security to be the number one priority in the country.
We think that no changes should be made to this system regardless of all
of the evidence that it is now out of control. We choose to ignore the
laws of the land when it comes to illegal immigration. We choose to
ignore the consequences to the unemployed in America that illegal
workers are contributing to. We think if we keep up the status quo
(where 8 millions workers contribute hundreds of billions of illegal tax
receipts) Social Security will be able to keep the checks going a few
years longer. We are prepared to lie about the facts to achieve our
ends. We don’t give a damn about fairness. We are defending our narrow
interests. We don’t care about the huge inter-generational transfer of
wealth that SS is bringing us. Our narrow goal is to protect the
interests of the Boomers. Our motto is:
BK translation: After I’m dead things can go to hell.
Excuse the rant.
Possible is not the same as probable.
Great piece Bruce.
News to me on illegals collecting benefits in their origin country. What complete bullshit. SCOTUS has ruled SS is a tax and nothing more. Why the hell are we sending taxes back to illegals? I want my god damn taxes back!
I have to question the numbers, my rule of thumb I learned from childhood, is double any number or sometimes triple it. But as time passes the multiples are astronomical, so no one ever truly knows. I use that as my reasoning, bet on the lowest common denominator. Bet on the profiteers to win, and not for any thought of its effects to people outside the personal liquor cabinet.
It breaks my heart to look at these kids today, when I was young, the schemes and scandals were at least presented in the millions. In 20 years, its accelerated so fast, its past billions in a blink of an eye, then trillions. That unbelievable number is passing as well. Then the quadrillion number was touched. This is gonna get really messy folks.
We have a huge demographic problem that can only be solved by massive immegration. We need to allow as many young people as can fit in the country to move here.
It isn't just the payroll tax problem, either - we need tons of people to take care of the huge number of old people we will have.
You are wrong on two counts. First of all, we already have massive immigration. Second, it is not a good thing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muw22wTePqQ&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPjzfGChGlE
Sorry you got junked. I agree with you. I am in favor of immigration.
I just hate the "Wink and Nod" bullshit that we have had for 15 years.
What the fuck is wrong with this country? We keep sweeping every problem under the rug.
Grrrr. I'm pissed today.....
Pissed? It's because you still believe in the mythical "we," and its abstract institution, government (or "country" as you put it). As long as you keep empowering criminals, we are fucked.
I'm an American, but I belong to no nation, because the ideal American is free from tyranny, not attached to it. Nothing is more anti-American than Rome on the Potomac.
It's not criminals, it's incorporation - the tool of choice for said criminals, and the root of systemic corruption.
Absolutely correct! Either start killing off the retirees or get more young workers to support them. If you're not going to breed them, you need to import them. This is a big European problem as well, especially in France and Italy.
Bruce, you really need to get out more and talk to people outside your circle of upper middle class westchesterites.
People who are here illegally, and working "on the books" are doing so with either 1) a made up SS number or 2) a tax i.d. number. Either way, they will never receiver SS benefits, no matter where they live. period. With a tax i.d. number, when the person files his annual tax return, he is not eligible for the various work/child tax credits. none of them. period. They guy with the made up SS number doesn't file a tax return so he's not getting any sort of a refund.
The people working "off the books" are a problem. A few of them probably cut your majestic lawn. This problem is easy to solve. They are given a choice, get a "work visa" (something new) and a tax i.d. number, or go home.
I tell you, you're wrong.Read from above
Libs do not recognize facts unless they can be used or twisted into their worldview. Keep up the good work Mr Kasting. Yours, Maverick
Bruce would prefer that his lawn is mowed by an illegal. It's cheaper and gives him more control over his employee.
If the concept is to fund Mexico and offer a pressure relief valve for the expanding poor population in order to keep the US friendly government/wealthy in power, and gain votes for the Democrats here, then I understand.
Leaving the border porous for the inflow of drugs which may drain America of money, health and a lawful society needs a higher profile. The Mexican who is a law abiding worker is one thing. The Mexican drug runner or one who is given the choice of jail or going across the river North is another. The cost to the law/jail/law enforcement system in California is staggering. The cost of cocaine to our citizens and Nation could be a National emergency.
Sometime back a couple or three decades ago, this must have been the "gentlemen's agreement":
El Presidente de Mexico: We will sell you Yanquis all the surplus oil we can suck out of the ground.
President of the U.S.: OK, we will pretend not to notice your citizens who sneak across our border.
Nonsense!
The "gentlemen's agreement" (I dispute that they're really "gentlemen") was:
We will sell you all the oil we can suck out of the ground that our locals can't afford to buy so you Yanquis can fuel your gas guzzlers and we (multi-national) Power Elites can get even richer. And we'll also send you our excess laborers so that your lawns can be mowed, your fields can be picked and your chickens gutted at less than you would otherwise need to pay so we (multi-national) Power Elites can get even richer.
Behind EVERY power elite is incorporation (of some sort).
Of course. That eliminates personal responsibility.
The "Mexican drug runner" would soon be out of business if not for the demand for drugs in the U.S. He can't sell his drugs in Mexico for a profit.
How did America become the world's illegal drug market of choice? Hints: Anglo-American power elites, opium wars, big pharma.
If you want to get rid of the supply, get rid of the demand. Supply follows demand; demand doesn't follow supply. Econ 101.
You're forgetting the "War on Drugs." The runner can sell in Mexico at a profit, but they can sell in the US for a supra-normal profit, because of the barriers to entry created by prohibition.
Simply put, the more laws they pass, the higher the profit for those who can deliver.
Econ 102.
And the Queen and the CIA can always deliver. They may need to send the army into Afghanistan, et al occasionally to make sure the crops are tended properly though.
The little guys get to do the time.
Nicely done, Bruce. We might also consider the unpaid income tax problem inherent with illegals, and the incentive to pay in cash and by-pass the system.
There is an implicit assumption in this mallarcy that without illegals, the work would NOT BE DONE by legal residents. There might have been some truth in that pre-2008, but not iin this crappy job market.
The question isn't whether the work would be done by Americans. The question is at what price would they do that work?
Without the illegals, a lot of things we get cheaply would be more expensive. Fresh Produce, Deliveries from restaurants, etc. That is not necessarily a bad thing because right now, we have externalities (costs) that are bourne by society as a whole instead of the industries that take advantage of illegal laborers. It is appropriate for the externalities to be eliminated, for the true costs to be incorporated, and for us to be able to determine the true costs of these services.
This is a canard. A study at UCLA or USC several years ago found that farm wages account for approximately 15% of the cost of produce at the store. And, contrary to what most people think, illegals are not paid a dollar an hour; in fact, to the contrary, they are paid at least $10-$15 an hour. This is why they come here. They could make a dollar an hour back in Mexico.
Anyway, if you start crunching the numbers, you find that you could double farm wages (to, say, $20-$30 per hour), and the price of your $1.00 head of lettuce would increase only to $1.15. For that matter, double farm wages again, and your head of lettuce now costs only $1.45, but you have created millions of ('shovel ready') American jobs paying $40-$60 hour, and simultaneously eliminated the problems associated with the influx of Mexicans, legal and illegal.
For fifty bucks an hour or thereabouts, I'll bet I'm not the only one here at Zero Hedge who would consider picking strawberries a viable option to what I'm doing now. And I don't even have a particularly bad gig.
Problem solved.
Why did US ag get so mechanized, even compared to other developed countries such as in Europe....because economics of our country promoted it. When you have cheap labor, no incentive to find efficiencies. I remember working in construction on HI in early 90s, there were general contractors fro Asia and US...guy from China would throw huge amounts of labor at jobs, it was what he was accustomed to doing...thing is on some jobs it made sense, one job needed a whole bunch of foundation piers below grade. Rather than bring in several drill rigs and wait for them to work thru all the drilled piers, they set crews hand digging! All the holes at once....expensive with HI labor costs but in this case saved so much time and the cost of mobilizing more equipment from stateside it worked. But usually mechanization or other technology improvements (computer form accounting work etc) is a great boon to economic,y, if wealth from efficiencies move thru whole economy via cheaper goods/ foods or more profits for everyone.
But when very cheap,labor available, no innovation on technology incentivized.
US agriculture has been so productive due to technology improvements (driven in part by labor costs) and infrastructure like irrigation in Cali, good roads, barges and rail shipping etc.
Of course now we are turning our backs on these things that have been so successful for us....we have cheap, abusable labor (not just piece migrant workers from MX that may do fairly okay but literally illegal foreigners smuggled in and locked up in shacks, just read the news). We also are turning our backs on the communal projects that lay the provide the basis for private business success: excellent infrastructure, good, efficient cheap - in terms of tax dollars spent - transportation ,irrigation, clean corruption free markets etc...instead we cut spend on this joint "mechanization" and plead for deregulation, plead to take the market police off the streets. So we are trending to Third World policies that obviously keep their people in poverty and don't the general country's economy much good, but allow a few to make huge money off of cheap labor and low taxes.
take Nigeria as an example of where we are going, it is a prosperous natural resource country, as our we, and has decent technology companies coming up, but it is very deregulated...see your email scams...and has very little govt infrastructure and still has lots of really cheap labor. So a private business will have low taxes, but will have to get their own water source, buy generators for electricity, ship their goods on horrendously horrible roads etc...so businesses stay low tech and have high overhead costs that would be lower if all got together and made good roads, electrical grid, water systems etc. Instead all could be more prosperous, raise wages which drives technology, pool resources for common wealth that comes from infrastructure, lack of parasitical market manipulation, bribes etc.
We have whole world, country by country, province by province, examples and all of economic history to evaluate what has worked best for common wealth of a country including the success of it's businesses and it's labor, common folk....and yet we turn our back what made even us successful in our own lifetime and embrace the road to Third World status.
..according to this mentality, only way we can compete and live is to drop wages, they only way we can afford food is to have exploitable labor not subject to labor laws, and we can't afford the investments in infrastructure and technology that made us more efficient than everyone else, we have tom pare back to Third World levels of infrastructure and we don't care about keeping our markets clean and fair, we don't want to have democratically responsive police work investigating scammers.
So who does Third World model we are embracing benefit? we can't say the Third World method helps the regular folks of these countries, it certainly does not make their overall economies thrive to rival developed nations, so in only benefits a few special people, corrupt govt officials and politicians, and rich connected elite parasites while hones workers and honest small businesses doing decent work and competing in open market get rolled over by connected businesses with unfair advantages because no one is policing rule of law on behalf of all people, things are deregulated.
And which Third World countries have grown to compete with developed nations? Those who have embraced more of the things that had worked I US...China with massive infrastructure works, dams, high speed rail better than any in the world, educatin etc...India, the states that have spent govt ,money on infrastructure, education have produced Bagalore while the state that keep old Third World ways still way behind. Brazil's progressive ways etc...
Increase in labor costs would make some of US ag go away, after we export a lot and some cropsmare very difficult to mechanize, but with all the 99 ers coming off UI, many, not all, but many would be willing to work I fields for something that ended up around $25/hr.go up to a teenager in a poor urban neighborhood and tell him he could work in fields for a month, live in barracks while doing it and come home with $3000 after expenses for food and shelter, and see if you got any takers.
shoot, white legal Americans have shown up on Home Depot corners looking for day work, white legal American actually do roofing...even if most of those guys are ex felons, still they do it...raise the wages enough there will be labor.
Yes it will increase price and that will decrease demand but does not mean whole economic segment disappears.
so some crops would not be practical or competive enough to grow in US any more, some would go up in cost and decrease in volume but still exist (shoot like how expensive some berries are people stil buy them but less often) and some technology would be further developed to make ag less labor intensive.
Trust me -- the average Mexican strawberry picker is a real pro and can pick faster than you ever will. I tried once. It's piece work. I made less than $1/hr.
$50/hr? You're dreaming. Strawberries would become extinct.
Okay. First of all, mine was hyperbole ... exaggeration for the purposes of illustration. In fact, I do not believe that we would need to offer farm laborers as much as $40 or $60 per hour in order to entice unemployed Americans to do the work, but the fact is ... we could if we had to. No, strawberries would not become extinct. In fact, strawberries would merely cost 45% more than they do right now. Not the greatest thing to be sure, but considering that, because of the monetary policies of the Fed, the treasury, and the Federal Government, strawberries (and everything else, for that matter) cost 45% more than they did a year or two ago, and I can personally attest to the fact that strawberries are not extinct (in fact, they appear to be in abundance), I think that you are thus demonstrably and irrefutably wrong about strawberries (or anything else) becoming extinct because the price goes up a small amount.
Many years ago, I picked oranges in Florida. It was piece work. Can't remember how much for a "field tub?" Been a long time. Paid pretty well, as I recall. I can't remember if I was faster than the Mexicans or the slowest or the fastest overall, but it paid pretty well, and the guy in charge seemed to be happy to see me come back each day. I recall that at the end of the day, the guy in charge would count out one dollar bills into each person's hand to pay them (because many of the pickers could not count). Really didn't matter then, and doesn't matter now, whether I was faster than a Mexican. I got the job done, and was paid a decent sum.
I don't get this thralldom about Mexican workers and this idea that Mexicans are so hard working. You ever see Mexico? What a shithole.
Drive through Amish country, and you will see what the results of hard working looks like.
If he's using the 2007 numbers, that seems it would have made things a little too optimistic. I mean, illegals were building our houses and strip centers and things that they no longer are building. So, chances are the illegals are paying in much less at current than the outdated figures he used.
Social Security would not be in trouble without illegal contributions (ponder that for a moment) because it has a large surplus.. just like the Federal Employees Retirement System. /sarc
Most every family I know has a health care premium bill of at least $1000 per month. Illegals have the ER. Those with kids in college have costs in the 1000s per year; illegals get the benefit of in-state tution (in most of the blue states) and are more eligible for financial assistance. And let us not forget about SNAP. The standards are so loose that my Salvadorean gardener gets over $200/month for his family. If you look at what illegals take out of the system vs what they put in, there might be an epiphany.
hiring an illegal immigrant and then complaining about his prescence... what an entitled asshole.
"The standards are so loose that my Salvadorean gardener . . ."
And the reason you employ a Salvadorean gardner is?
He's doing the Lord's work and "helping" the little brown people referred to in number 5 above.
apberusdisvet,
Exactly.
Why do we have porous borders?
- Big Ag loves illegal migrant farm workers - they can pay them less and not be sued for injuries or workmens comp, taxes, etc., etc.
- Churches love illegal immigrant members to fill the pews. Catholic and Mormon are the biggest. Less educated more obescient group of people, give more money, legitimize faith, bring in more members, have lots of babies.
- Healthcare - how can corporate healthcare reduce their tax burden? Write-offs! While being "compassionate" they can write off all that free ER care they give to illegals, and pass the bill to the insurance companies, who pass it on to legal citizens.
- Government - what better way to get generations of loyal voters than to let them in illegally, give them handouts, let them pop out kids, who then become legal and vote for more handouts and against cracking down on illegal immigration.
- The Arrogant Elite - you don't really want to have to pay someone $20 an hour to clean your house and trim your bushes, do you? So much better to have Maria or Juan do it on the cheap, while you feel superior and as though you are "helping" the little brown people.
About the only people against illegal immigration are the responsible working middle class legal American family (yes, of all races and origins), but they are of course the same group that has a bullseye on their rear-ends painted by Wall Street and Washington.Churches love illegal immigrant members to fill the pews. Catholic and Mormon are the biggest. Less educated more obescient group of people, give more money, legitimize faith, bring in more members, have lots of babies.
Logic fail. More obescient? No. Give more money? No. Legitimize faith? How? Bring in more members? Maybe. Have lots of babies? No.
You may want to brush up on the stats on illegals. They're not your stereotypical Hispanics anymore.
Really?
Been to a Catholic church lately?
Been to a Mormon stake?
Are these Hispanics you speak of legal citizens?
Yes, really. I go to a Catholic church every Sunday. I'm also the child of a legal Central American immigrant. Are you really going to tell me that all of the M-13'ers are at Eucharistic Adoration every morning and plopping 10% of their drug money in the collection plate?
The biggest group of "migrant workers" around is the set that shows up to our parish's monthly free clinic. They're not in the pews. Again, I would suggest you brush up on the latest stats concerning illegal immigrants from south of the border. They are not conservative or especially religious.
Jesus Saves -- your azaleas.
Jesus...Jesus...there is Powdery Mildew on the Rhododendrons!
My God man, why do I pay you under the table?!?!
Lovey dear!? Bring me that bag of copper sulfate will you?
Stop running Jesus! I asked her to get me 'copper sulfate' not get the 'copper's with haste'...Jesus Christ...
(shakes head, sips martinini)
I got t-boned by an illegal who ran a red light. A bunch of his friends showed up to help, while we had to get a taxi and to get us and our dogs home. The kid in their car (no car seat) got free treatment at Parkland. With no ID, the cops couldn't give him a ticket for no insurance, no kid car seat, or running the red light. He went free.
Wait until one of your relatives is killed by an illegal and see how you like it.
Oh, then he tried to sue me.
If he didn't have an ID, how can you be sure he was really an illegal? Couldn't he just as well have been a legal resident without an ID? Or did you determine he was an illegal because his skin color was brown. That's a sure-fire method.
Brown with no driver's license are more likely to be illegals than white with no driver's license. Brown with no driver's license, and who also cannot speak english, are more likely to be illegals than brown with no driver's license who can speak english. There are exceptions to every rule, but the standard just outlined is a pretty decent gauge of someone's citizenship status. Perhaps not perfect, but useable.
I know some native born very white (and some brown ones too) alcoholic Americans that can't get (and shouldn't get) a drivers license. If I were one of them and got into a jam like this, I might not want to speak English either.
So white skinned Canadians, Russians, etc. must be legals? But American Indians that don't believe in dirvers licenses that refuse to speak English are illegal?
That sounds like one of them "Glittering Generalities". There's nothing "decent" about it.
I allowed for exceptions to the rule, as yours are. But my comments stand, in terms of general statistics. And remember that we are discussing no ID, not no driver's license. I referred to driver's license only because it is a useful form of ID.
All is fair in war.
And if you think this isn't war, just wait.
Thanks to BATF they also have some nice guns!
I live in northern NM and can hear automatic weapons fire from a Mexican trailer park at New Year's.
Are you being facetious?
I will cry no tears for someone prosperous enough to afford a gardener. It is your class of people that create the demand for this illegal labor that you complain about subsidizing.
I have a gardner. He came with my house when I bought it in 1986. He was the gardner for the previous owner. I didn't bother to fire him. Have never met him, but I see his employees sometimes when they cut my grass. For years I paid him $30 a month to cut my grass twice a month. The last few years, I have paid him $50 a month.
Does any of that information give you a clue as to how prosperous I am or am not? Or what class I am in? I don't think so.
apber you are soo right! I work in healthcare. I saw a family come in who trashed a rental house and skipped out in the middle of the night. I knew what they did and where they where, but could not report them or I could have been prosecuted under HIPPA. The usual- no spikka de englis, fake name and address, suck from the system and move on. We as a country choose to allow this by voting for these stupid libs that put these assinine laws/policies in place. We need a revolution. Make it ILLEGAL for an illegal to get any ss,snap,ebt or other bennie from us. Enforce the damned border. The mexican gov't does not give 1 peso about US citizens when in Mexico as far as our health/safety. Why in hell should we placate them here???