You're now on the archive server. Commenting has been disabled.
April Beige Book Report
Some CRE snippets from the report:
"Nonresidential real estate conditions continued to deteriorate. Difficulty obtaining commercial real estate financing was constraining construction and investment activity. Bankers reported tight credit conditions, rising delinquencies, and some deterioration of loan quality.
Commercial real estate investment activity weakened further. Contacts said a decline incredit availability and markdowns on commercial property were keeping buyers and sellers onthe sidelines.
Commercial real estate lending continued to decline. Credit availability generally remained very tight across regions. A number of Districts reported deteriorating loan quality and rising delinquencies for all types of loan categories. In particular, several reports noted more stringent requirements for commercial real estate loans due to worries of worsening loan quality in the sector."
Perfect timing for Goldman Sachs to put SPG on their conviction buy list. Nothing like having more visibility than the federal reserve... unless you are the federal reserve of course.
»
- 564 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
Steve Liseman just told me that it was a "great report" really postive.
What more do i need to know?
Is anyone selling Copper here at 22145?
CNBC suggests that the tone of the beige book is quite a bit better than recent ones - they suggest that it signals a bottom in the economy has been reached. They go on to emphasize that the anecdotal data contained in the BB is much better than in recent memory. As if to corroborate their optimism they point out that the Dow has tripled its gains since it was released.
What is amazing is that they made those pronouncements within minutes of its release.
lol anon. was about to point out that liesman's conclusion came within 83 seconds of it hitting the fed website... CNBC has got the inside scoop as always. way to go gasbag
@2:11
I would be a seller. But not going short yet.
Worried about Q1 Chinese GDP tonight and any further stimilus announcements.
Anyone else find these chinese numbers confusing: March yoy industrial production +8.3%,
March yoy electricity consumption
-2.0%?
these reports are usually released to media FAR in advance so they can write stories on them. They are embargoed from releasing their story till the exact time the data comes out.
is this a surprise to people?
Anon.
Yes, I am shorting copper up here, Shanghai vs. Lme arb trade is still wide open esp with VAT levied in Shanghai 2-3 weeks ago...but as the gap fills, you will notice we go back to huge inventory builds, capacity has not fully been pulled off on copper, AND most importantly , the scrap supplies will hit the mkt the longer we stay above 1.80+ lbs/
Any "inflation premium" will dissapear as well, as there is probably no CPI blow up coming anytime soon over the next 1-1.5 year, incomes are collapsing, and core will prob go negative.
The biggest risk for deflation is actually next year...
"hump" shaped recovery as Jan Hatzius talks about.
As for robust Chinese Demand....
the greater risk here is that rest of the world demand will pull China down more substantially (instead of the other way around)
looking for 1million + inventory on copper before year end..will put us 1.00 on the spot
LoL.
Don't get me started again on Steve Liesman.
It's like fluttering the red cape in front of the bull.
It really is.
One of the worst Beige Books in history, S&P's drops 8 maybe 10 points.
Get the picture?
The line on lack of available credit for acquisition and construction is kind of funny. I have said a number of times that we are oversupplied in almost all space types. There is no such thing as "a good project that can't get construction financing". CRE developers are always going to think their projects are good, but they can't see through the bias.
The credit crunch is providing a much needed stop to construction activity.
I've posted on this a number of times, but most recently here:
http://realpropertyalpha.com/2009/02/18/california-construction-recovery/http://realpropertyalpha.com/2009/04/11/multi-family-and-single-family-recovery-require-absorption-of-excess-space/
The Obama administration named on Wednesday a former U.S. Justice Department official who was "border czar" during Bill Clinton's presidency to lead its efforts to crack down on drug-related violence along the U.S.-Mexican border.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1550923720090415
Czar sounds so Russian, wonder how long it will be before this little banana republic becomes a roach motel.
why would one want to go long SPG right now?
I find the GS upgrade of SPG to be genius.
SPG is the largest component of SRS and IYR and has a 15% short interest.
Rising tide lifts all boats
GS lost $800 million of CRE
I am sure with these stock moves GS is in motion to try to line up some M&A in the space PHM/CTX style...stock swaps!
Is the market so illiquid that it can be maniuplated...but of course! Geithner is pals with Goldman. As is Washington DC. Isn't strange how Paulson has received ZERO criticism for pushing Washington D.C. for deregulation back when he was CEO of Goldman?
It's good to be a Golden Scrote!!!
FWIW - Chinese numbers may have been impacted by the timing of Chinese new year
FWIW - new condo construction is still sprouting up all over Brooklyn.
whether they will get filled or not is a different story.
The PatrickThePainter Manifesto... LoL
Buy SPG if you know that the financing is available and ready for SPG and a promise with a wink and a nudge from General to sell choice real estate at an extreme discount once they file----no Chinese walls necessary when you are always in a catbird seat and immune from prosecution.