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April Vehicle Assembly Rate Collapses, May Industrial Production Estimates To Be Cut
As if today's disappointing announcement of slowing Industrial Production was not enough for all those still hoping for a hockeystick to the economy, we now get an update from Stone McCarthy which looks at the latest Wards Automotive data and sees what apparently nobody has factored into their models yet. In a nutshell, the annualized April motor vehicle assembly plunged at a 12% rate from 8.923 million in March to just 7.847, the lowest reading in all of 2011. From SMRA: "In the past, such a sizable drop in the assembly rate has usually translated into a sharp decline in motor vehicle output. We project motor vehicle output to decline by 9% in April, which would be entirely consistent with the drop-off in the assembly rate." The immediate impact: the drop in the industrial production already seen, but the bulk of it due to delayed aftereffects will likely impact the May number, as the follow through from the Japanese supply chain halt starts ringing a loud alarm bell across Wall Street. Of course, this is another thing that all those calling for a 4% H2 GDP could have absolutely not foreseen (and in fact it was originally supposed to be positive for the economy, eh Deutsche Bank?). Expect to see drastic downward cuts to May Industrial Production and next, to Q2 GDP.
And for those curious, here is Goldman's inability to spin today's Industrial Production in a favorable way.
Industrial production flat in April (mom) vs. GS +0.5%, median forecast +0.4%.
MAIN POINTS:1. US industrial production stalled in April, due to a sharp decline motor vehicles and parts production (down 8.9%). This decline appears to be the effect of supply-chain disruptions resulting from the natural disasters in Japan. Overall manufacturing output declined by 0.4%, while output of manufactured products excluding motor vehicles and parts rose by 0.2% Together with downward revisions to previous months, these figures imply that the annualized three-month growth rate of manufacturing output excluding vehicles slowed from 8.4% in January to just 1.8% in April.
2. Mining and utilities output both increased (by 1.7% and 0.8%, respectively). The capacity utilization rate fell to 76.9% in April from 77.4% in March.
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Could $5/gal gasoline have anything to do with this?
Obama energy policies are killing the industry he tried to save (with our tax dollars)
No! It rained in April
Industrial Production was down due to unusual amounts of pollen. People sneezed and stayed home.
Mad Max Beyond AmeriKKKa here you go!!
Fascist Implosion, bitches!
Amerika: the KKK/bankster empire ends in tears!
bullshit i say...gm is is selling like a billion cars a week.....look it up....i just cant find the title info or registration info at my local dmv....
Yes but the sun also shone; double whammy!
whatever happened to Hugh Hendry or whatever? wasn't he doing something with Japanese steel producer CDS's or something? did he get killed or make a killing?
He was short Japan.
http://fundmanagernews.com/hugh-hendry-short-japan
Must have made a killing.
Tsunami, Bitchez!
Were there 4 Tuesdays or 5 in April? Trust me that will make all the difference...it's the newest thing in seasonal adjustment circles.
They don't build 'em like they used to...
Once I built a mono-rail?
and made it run, made it race against time?
"and our re-election campaign slogan is now officially underway"--(clapping, camera flash bulbs popping, magical line sheet wisked off white board) "yes i give you...i give you...A PICKUP TRUCK IN EVERY DRIVEWAY! Questions please, questions. Yes, not all at once, not all at once. You there, you there! What say you? Why not a "chicken in every pot" you ask? Well, well....
"A PICKUP TRUCK IN EVERY DRIVEWAY! Questions please, questions. Yes, not all at once, not all at once. You there, you there! What say you? Why not a "chicken in every pot" you ask?"
---
These days, it's more like...
"DRIVE-A-WAY & PICK-UP your chicken basket from Popeyes"...
"we can do that too! gas cards and Popeyes. next question please. you in front--what say you?"
Be careful what you promise...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pyW6w5B7Aw
or... even funnier...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrZHroTxgtE&feature=related
"oBAMA WILL PAY MY BILLS!!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1FCmfo2Ft4
They don't need to build any more cars anyway - they're stacked 4 high at the dealer lots. It's worse than the shadow inventory of RE.
....and the price on used cheaper cars is taking off. Used car dealers can't get cheapies at the auction because dealer's aren't getting trade-ins and cash for clunks took a lot of good merchandise off the road for destruction. Po folk get the camshaft again !!
Not to mention as regulations increase car costs continue upwards. Some aren't "safe enough" so they can't be imported. Like that indian car that was like 2k new.
Not to mention that lots of cheap used cars were shipped overseas back when everyone was getting 5-6 yrs dealer financing @ 0% with an employee discount to boot. Never mind how many years forward that pulled demand.
At least the parking lot in the otherwise empty bowling alley (next to the brand new Nissan dealership) stays full now.
Heck of a job, Bernanke!
It is plainly obvious how to kill this ponzi scheme once and for all.
Short the SPY to hell, and Short the hell out of the EUR/USD and Benny's ponzi is over and collapsed.
"It is plainly obvious how to kill this ponzi scheme once and for all..."
---
Buy PHYSICAL everything, with FRN's...
Yes, I should mentioned that you buy PHYSICAL with the fiat profits from the shorting
That's "the Morgue's" strategy with silver...
Granny's tea set is halfway out of the cupboard already...
This is all about the collapse of Japan's economic engine, period. GM would keep stuffing the pipeline if they had the parts. Who needs customers in a ponzinomic system such as ours?
Even though I understand the origin of the term, we have to stop calling these "black swans". They are too big and lethal to be swans anymore.
I vote for "black pteranodons"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pteranodon
Black monkeydons as found in Wizard of Oz.
Yes that works too. As an added bonus they fly out your butt.
black azhdarchids bitchez. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1022267/Why-gigantic-wing...
They are celebrating this news by:
- Bidding up WFC by 3% (the "Fix Is In" on the banks, as of today)
- Jamming COF, AXP, DFS up to new 3-year highs.
- Pushing "Grandma" utility stocks up to new highs for the move (thanks for ZIRP)
As we said yesterday, we believe Utility stocks will subsantially outperform from here on out as part of the great QE unwind compression trade.
and spot on
That and your analysis of the FEDs put selling on Tres were the best Financial analysis anywhere this year.
Kudos.
Yep, people still need water and power. Well some do. Folks in my neck of the woods are pretty "self reliant". How long before that phrase gets wiped from existence by TPTB?
Tyler, where can I find more info on utility stocks the represent mostly communities in non-broke states?
QE unwind ??? Who would have thunk it ..... Lol .... Not the bears or the doomers' I guess ....
The amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry increased 1.9 percent in March from February to reach the highest level since July 2008, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ Freight Transportation Services Index released Wednesday, May 11. The March increase followed a decline in February.
BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that shipments measured by the Freight TSI rose 15.1 percent over the last 23 months, starting in May 2009, after declining 15.7 percent in the previous 16 months beginning in January 2008. Freight shipments have increased in 17 of the last 23 months. Freight shipments in March (108.6 on the index) rose 15.1 percent from the recent low in April 2009 (94.3) when freight shipments were at their lowest level since July 1997.
Freight shipments reached a 33-month high in March despite a slight slowdown in the rate of growth in the beginning of 2011 compared to the end of 2010. For the first three months of 2011, freight shipments measured by the index were up 1.3 percent following a 2.1 percent increase during the final three months of 2010. The first quarter of 2011 saw the seventh consecutive quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2009.
http://www.ccjdigital.com/monthly-freight-index-up-1-9-in-march-year-ove...
Yes indeed, DUK is doing well for me and I got lucky with ICO
@Robo
Why don't you do something useful by crunching those observations into a thesis or prediction and telling us why it's relevant...
I can go to FINVIZ.COM to see what's green, or just listen to Bob PISS ON ME
"yes, yes. i am peering into my creestal skull--i mean BALL, crystal BALL--and i'm seeing something here--yeessss, 'cloudy with a chance of rain.' Yep, it's official. 50/50 chance of pretty much everything."
WEATHER REPORT:
In the 'Rocky' Mountains... CLOUDY
In the 'Cloudy' Mountains... ROCKY
This must be bullish for stocks: all those resources able to be used...err..elsewhere?
http://landofunicorn.tumblr.com/ask
nuff said.
whats the big news here? every automaker already warned of limited production. its NOT due to anticipated lack of demand, as in 2008, so what is the point of this article?
The point is to demonstrate the endless divergence between reality and (future) perceptions. What was consensus for April IP, where did it come? What is consensus for May IP, and where will that come. Also, one may be surprised that IP does impact GDP, and thus fiscal, monetary and other general bailout policy.
Does that answer your question?
or if he needs weighty, cumbersome explanations of the wide spread phenomena that are "predictions" refer him to Talib
Could it be....that they were...lying?
yes
Yep, in general most things "paper" starting to detach from anything real. Successful investing is not a race to the bottom and I appreciate ZH's help.
thanks for the response. although i think most would agree that any effect on gdp due to supply issues actually is (for lack of a better phrase) a transitory issue.
Please explain this robust consumer "demand" for new vehicles, that doesn't include dealer channel-stuffing.
Thanks in advance.
As for me, I'm still waiting for the automakers to do like a JOSEPH A BANK, or Men's Wearhouse deal...
"Buy one truck, and get the second truck, absolutely FREE"
Wouldn't have to do with overstuffed dealerships, would it?
Will all Japanese products now glow in the dark?
Getcha red hot geiger counters now. Hmmm I wonder when US citizens are going to be arrested after bringing geiger counters into grocery stores and causing panic when the readings go off the charts? Will a TSA thug be in every supermarket?
Getcha red hot geiger counters now.
LOL.
If everything across the board starts contracting anywhere near 9 or 12% what will the hit be to the government in terms of tax revenues?
we don't need no stinkin revenues... Our overlords have a confetti making machine...
David Rockefeller and the Council on Foreign Relations want to have you all microchipped by the year 2017.
So they can track your every move and store all your money on it and also delete it, if they want to.
So you are all being assigned an ID number, like cattle, or the Jews in Auschwitz !
What, you don't believe it ?
Well watch this Interview with Aaron Russo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nD7dbkkBIA
This chip is supposed to be implanted into your body.
They want THE MATRIX to become reality.
When will you American clowns finally wake up and DO SOMETHING AGAINST
the megalomaniac genocidal psychopaths who control your puppet politicians ?!
YOU ARE RULED BY SCUM !!!
YOUR WHOLE FUCKING AMERICAN GOVERNMENT IS SICK !!!
Yep, how long before the second amendment disappears? By then it will be too late.
Uh duh!!. We (4%) know that. I for one am no longer willing to take it in the neck for the sheeple. I am out. They had plenty of chances and warnings. Screw em.
you will want them on our side when the time comes comrade
Very true, except for one part. Our government is not "American".
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez
The auto industry will eventually go the way of textiles and steel.
Ford is likely to survive.
GM may survive in the USA in a stripped down version after its next bankruptcy.
There was a third I forgot its name. Doesnt matter because even if it is still alive it will be dead in a few more years
"There was a third I forgot its name"
---
FIAT! (ror)
There was a third I forgot its name. Doesnt matter because even if it is still alive it will be dead in a few more years
Do you mean Diamler-Chrysler, or were you referring to one of your offspring?
they should have kept Megan Fox for the Transformer 3 flick. now she's doing a movie with Mickey Rourke and we all know what that means. Still I see sales of Camero's already going through the roof in the run-up to the blockbuster--and beyond. "You can have any color scheme you want. And we mean ANY color scheme."
Continuing with my main point, ordinarily I would say this headline is deflationary:
"April Vehicle Assembly Rate Collapses, May Industrial Production Estimates To Be Cut."
However, I've since learned that ALL NEWS is inflationary.
Inflationary news ----> harbinger of Inflation.
Deflationary news----> justification for QE(n +1) Thus: Inflation.
Ergo all news, of whatever sort, in any time period, is Inflationary.
_
Ignore 10 year yields and all this apparent deflationary news, just BTFDs
"In a social democracy with a fiat currency, all roads lead to inflation" - Bill Fleckenstein
i remember reading when they bailed out GM that they needed to be at 10 million per year ......they are in BIG trouble
Citi Bank has been bailed out at least 12 times since 1980. Why can't the same shit happen with GM? Won't the new world order want to have at least some perceived competition or will all the competition simply be in the black markets?
Bids must be getting thin, I just got this message from TOS.
WE HAVE INTRODUCED ZERO COMMISSIONS WHEN BUYING TO CLOSE ANY SHORT SINGLE EQUITY, INDEX, OR ETF OPTION FOR 0.05 OR LESS
fucking awesome. True "price discovery" around the corner? One can hope.
Wait... I Could For See It
Sometimes those of us on the back of the bus feel the downward trajectory earlier and more pronounced than the moron ruling-financial-political class up front driving...
Otherwise known as the RINSE part of the 'Rinse-Repeat' cycle...
Japanese supply chain halt
Chile and Africa, that I just happened to read about, who knows how many other reports, had cars come from Korea and they were COVERED in Cesium. The very IDEA that US automakers will use parts from Japan in building "American" cars is frightening.
But it is all about their god the $ the official god of the USA.
This government and its complicit media are CRIMINALS.
PSYCHOPATHS.
Dead fish and sharks are already arriving along the California coast. Although the cause is supposedly unknown, it is doubtful if we will ever be told that any dead sea life washing ashore is most likely radioactive. See:
http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=news/local/ventura_county&id=8081041
and
http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2011/04/22/dead-leopard-sharks-found-in-redwood-city-lagoons
The EPA has refused to test the Gulf of Alaska for radioactivity. In their latest negligence, EPA posted on May 3, their refusal to monitor daily radiation from Fukushima, “due to the consistent decrease in radiation levels related to the Japanese nuclear incident.”
can't wait until oBLAHma and the bernank and timmy wash ashore!
Have no fear ZHers...
The Goldman Sachs has spoken...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43062111
In a way he is correct however. Kinda can't go into another recession until we get out of the depression we are in currently.
My sphincter just tightened. Don't know if its cause I see the end is near or because I know where Goldman intends to stick it....
This is a bullish signal
Jesus, you're worse than Leo. Elaborate or GTFO.
Fortunately, they are a wholly owed subsidiary of the US Taxpayer. So, Dear Comrades, you can continue to pretend to work while we actually do pay you and your Union Masters so they can funnel it back to the "right" campaigns.
Being a full blown socialist liberal and a card carrying Republican; my interpretation of a union be democracy in the work force coupled with the firm belief that corporation do's not have inalienable rights given forth by Providence, exclusively to a natural person.
Remember the quatrain "when elenin passes; growth and prosperity will be divorc'd by the mistress energy" Donald Baldwin circa 1959 in the year of grace. The slack jawed gawker interpretation be; a nation can no longer have both growth and prosperity together because peak energy be on the backside. Teach thy posterity proper husbandry and they will prosper.