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An Arabian Revolution

Jack H Barnes's picture




 

 

The
League of Arabian states has just experienced its first populist
revolution in modern times in Tunisia. The prime minister has announced
that he is in control now that the President of the last 23 years or so
has fled the nation.  The nation has only experienced 2 leaders during
its existence.

There is a long list of national leaders who have to be looking
around, wondering if they could be next.  Autocratic dictators, despots
and or Presidents for life have always ruled the region.  This changed
today when the population of Tunisia over-threw their President.

It appears that the Federal Reserve’s intentional actions of
exporting inflation to the world, has claimed its first government.  The
people have grown angry watching the very staples of life become to
expensive to purchase on meager earnings.

This is but the first of what will probably be many events like this
around the world.  The people in mass can be cowed and systematically
robbed, but if you take away their food they will rise up quickly.

Marie Antoinette’s supposed comment about “let them eat cake”, and
the response of the French masses, is as likely and dangerous today to
leaders who fail to understand its meaning, as it was to her health
then. The people will respond violently to rapid food inflation costs.
Nations will fall.

The inflation in food prices is a worldwide crisis, that is still
building.  The heavy rains in Australia and Brazil, will have longer
lasting impacts than the global markets are noticing yet.

The worldwide reserve of spare calories is shrinking as we experience
global issues in places like Russia, Australia & Brazil.  The US is
one of the last nations with any form of strategy food reserves, and we
have very very little left.

The price of fresh food is going to continue to increase as the price
of energy continues to rise.  As a nation, we have grown use to food
being shipped to our grocery stores from all over the world.

New Zealand Apples, or Raspberry’s from Chile, or Mexican Avocado’s
our world food supply choices are shipped in bulk using ever more
expensive energy.  The western world fiat devaluation process will have
real world issues in food prices, in domestic currency terms.  Tunisia
will just be the first example.

Nations that have subsidized staples will find the process of
introducing real world prices harder and harder as we go forward.  It
will cause ever growing examples like Tunisia, where the pent up anger
finally finds a subject it can focus on.  The west may be unleashing
democracy into the world’s dictatorships via the inflation exportation
approach.

Market dynamics will either bankrupt these emerging markets via
rising import costs, or their exports will be impacted by the currency
wars.

This Arabian Revolution will not be the last, the genie is out now. 
Their leaders should be worried about putting the genie back in the
bottle.

Confessions of a Macro Contrarian www.jackhbarnes.com

 

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Sat, 01/15/2011 - 09:36 | 878512 anony
anony's picture

Calling a pissant piece of real estate like Tunisia, a "Nation" is like calling Far Rockaway or Hell's Kitchen or Harlem a State.

In genuine Nations that are spread out over millions and millions of square miles like the disUnited States, this kind of uprising is impossible.

Sure, Compton might flare up, if chittluns and collards go skyward, big deal.

The obesity in the disUnited States will prevent hundreds of millions of citizens from doing more than writing letters to editors. They don't have the energy to do what the truly starving will do. And let's face it, a 90 day fast would do wonders for our Health Care costs. Diabetes would disappear in 6 months, heart disease will fall to levels that will have many cardiologists looking for work as Financial Advisors, and the amount of cotton and spandex used in China to make our clothing will be cut in half.

Only good can come from a surcease of foodstuff consumption for many nations, and the tiny ones will be bought off for a few Big Macs and McRiblets which are simply other forms of Corn.

 

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 04:45 | 878458 amanfromMars
amanfromMars's picture

What is Saudi Arabia's rational for giving sanctuary to failed state dictators, fleeing from popular justifiable uprisings? Is not Thaksin Shinawatra, to name but one other fugitive figure from a national administration, also a protected guest of the Saudi kingdom, or is it more a case of their virtual arrest in a foreign land?

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 07:11 | 878493 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

What is Saudi Arabia's rational for giving sanctuary to failed state dictators, fleeing from popular justifiable uprisings?

 

SA is best friend to the US and serves as proxy for policies the US can not lead directly by themselves.

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 03:56 | 878433 Moonrajah
Moonrajah's picture

Nations that have subsidized staples will find the process of introducing real world prices harder and harder as we go forward.

Real world prices? My ass!

It's more like bozo-induced prices. Unfortunatley for the 99,999% of the global population the bozos have take over the real world and are turning it into an asylum.

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:42 | 878354 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

And, don't worry about Arabs being able to put Genies back in the bottle, they have centuries of experience doing this. Hell, even a mildly inept American - Tony Nelson - managed it quite often. It involves trickery and a cork.

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:31 | 878347 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

Helicopter Ben can always start air-dropping cake instead of liquidity. I would recommend fruitcake, as it is chock-full of goodies and has a shelf life akin to Joan Rivers.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 23:31 | 878250 greenewave
greenewave's picture

Just because the AMERICAN PEOPLE are being SCREWED and led down a PATH to SOCIALISM doesn't mean we can't sit back and relax occasionally, right???

Light a blunt and listen to some Pink Floyd while enjoying the video "SUNSETS ON AMERICA" at (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfJFGQiK3nc) for a little relief and escape from the TYRANNY.

Anonymous-

This ocean view really ties the rug together dude!! Puff..Puff..

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 00:43 | 878307 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

OMG

I love that album.

"Shine on you Crazy Diamond"

and

"Welcome to the Machine".

Yes.

He's right, we just don't like to hear it.

This is the same tyranny fought against over 200 years ago, and over 1000 years ago, and 2011 years ago.

Importantly, this revolt was not by Islamic extremists but by Women and Young students and the masses over individual freedoms and self-determination. 

Inflated food prices and usury are tools of oppression.

 

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:55 | 878371 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Yeah, the same demographic that put Chavez back in power in Venezuela.

High hopes, you bet.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 23:57 | 878276 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Thanks so much for your spams, greenie. A day without greenewave is like a day without a big ol' dump.

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:18 | 878334 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

Gastroenterologically speaking...excellent diagnosis.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 23:17 | 878224 greenewave
greenewave's picture


Notice how the NEW TERRORIST as stereotyped by the MAINSTREAM MEDIA are WHITE DUDES in a suit and tie like Mr. Vincent McCrudden?? 

Watch the YouTube video "The New American Terrorist ~ Regular Joe's" at (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bz9E5aTURWE).

Anonymous-

Isn't American tyranny great? I can't wait for the Gestapo to knock on my door and jail me for being a capitalist!!!!

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 22:42 | 878179 BobbyTinGA
BobbyTinGA's picture

Poor Tunisia: No real industry, no robust service sector, a huge population under 30 with no great prospects except trying to move to France (ugh) to find employment.  Their neighbors are Algeria, Italy and Libya - not great trading partners.

I truly wish them the best but don't expect to see free and fair elections and a representative democracy soon.  It's just not in their cultural DNA.  This place has been run by strongmen since before Hannibal stormed through the Alps.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 23:08 | 878210 IslandMan
IslandMan's picture

Their demographic structure is not as bad as most countries in the region. Pop growth is less than 1%.  Fertility is 1.7 , which is way below replacement.  On the other hand, they have a big "bulge" in the 20-30 year-old bracket, which is probably the group spearheading the riots.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 22:41 | 878177 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

If there is a revolution in Egypt,Israel will be more screwd then it is right now. Many analyst state that there could be an Egyptian Islamic revolution. If that happens we could expect the middle east and north africa be more unstable.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 22:40 | 878175 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Tunisian Spring?

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 20:56 | 878001 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

the cake is a lie... that is why they killed Mary

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 19:44 | 877851 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They are talking about the Arab revolution, but it can happen anywhere where the peoples money can't afford to buy the staples of nutrition.  Ask yourself what would happen if the govt. decided on monday that no more SS checks, or Medicaid checks, or food stamps or any type of benefit won't be paid anymore.  You will see rioting in the streets, because most peoples income are massively subsidized if not only consists of these things.  When you can't feed your family you get desperate and desperate people do desperate things.

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 00:14 | 878288 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

They are talking about the Arab revolution, but it can happen anywhere where the peoples money can't afford to buy the staples of nutrition. 

 

Words of common sense. It can happen anywhere where people can not endure the result of US exportation of inflation.

Connecting this to dictature or stuff like that is truly cheap. Tunisia is going to elect a government and what? Gone all their issues that made them vulnerable to inflation exported by the US? Propaganda is truly cheap these days.

 

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 19:16 | 877773 gangland
gangland's picture

no i don't think so, this changed in '79 friend. welcome to the party

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 19:09 | 877757 TDoS
TDoS's picture

Got livestock?

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 19:06 | 877752 Grill Boss
Grill Boss's picture

FOOD ALWAYS TRUMPS GOLD.... ALWAYS

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 18:46 | 877699 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

I was going to point out Iran's gvt was overthrown but I noticed it wasn't on the map.

 

Persian, not Arabic?

 

(I could say something really racist...but I won't)

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 19:11 | 877763 Star Warrior
Star Warrior's picture

Thank You, good manners always apprecaited!

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 18:05 | 877577 bogey4
bogey4's picture

i never trust anybody who "knows" what's going to happen.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 18:38 | 877668 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

HA! good one bogey4. yeah, I scanned his "wisdom" and when I came to the line about the "people will rise up" (in bold font, I believe) first thing I flashed on was TV tapes of starving Ethiopians and others in all the recent famines. And please 'splain me how somebody near death is gonna "rise up"?  threaten TPTB by shaking their walking stick at 'em?

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 17:56 | 877540 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

And I wanted to go on holiday to the Atlas mountains this year - I think I will scrap that idea somehow unless I want a really adventurous holiday..............

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 18:48 | 877697 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

""And I wanted to go on holiday to the Atlas mountains this year""

If things start to get worse around the world folks, imo, Canada's four Western Provinces, led by the Gateway city of Vancouver, may become the safest quadrant on this planet...

http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/01/vancouverthe-geneva-of-switzerland.html

and this one on the four western provinces,

...a plethora of natural resources w/ only 12.5 million citizens...

http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/01/what-will-happen-to-canadas-western.html

 

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:28 | 878344 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Oh no don't tell me HRH -  the Duke is in Canada now!

Seriously, posted a link to an immigrating to Canada gov site in another thread tonight. If you have skills it is very easy to do.

Vancouver is pretty insane re buying or renting. But I'm currently living in a condo in Toronto and paying half what I was in NYC with more space.  Was in Montreal a few weeks ago - I lived there before - and I think I want to move back. Wonderful city. I think real estate and/or renting is slightly cheaper than Toronto. 

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:37 | 878350 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

I like Canada....but I spent a winter working just outside of Toronto...and I almost froze my ass off.

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:46 | 878363 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Need to invest in thermal underwear plus good boots, hat and mits. And if you were just ouside of Toronto - that is mild! 

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:57 | 878372 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

Yeah...I was sent up there in the late summer "for only a few weeks," and ended up spending the winter. Luckily, the beer was good (expensive) and the women were warm and the food euro-bland but tasty. I was really enjoying myself until a Canadian Arms dealer reneged on selling me a Russian T-55 tank that I had my heart set on....but, he was actually Belgian, so maybe I should cut the country some slack.

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:27 | 878341 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

Speaking of vacation locations, I would recommend you avoid Sarajevo.

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:30 | 878346 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

+lol

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:03 | 878324 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Antartica!  Where only penguins run riot!

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:43 | 878356 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

And horney Scientists holed up in snowbound Quonset huts for the winter.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 20:58 | 878005 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Median house price in Vancouver BC is presently $1,000,000 -- might want to wait until the bubble pops & there is some real estate deflation.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 21:16 | 878046 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

Expensive, agreed.

...unfortunately it is that for a reason.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 23:14 | 878219 Blano
Blano's picture

What, they're not making any more land in Canada??

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 23:54 | 878272 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Not as such. Just turning it over to let the oil, aluminum, gold etc. out.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 17:50 | 877520 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

The worthless leaders in those countries better hope the pepole don't read ZH.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 18:17 | 877614 knukles
knukles's picture

That's why the schools are so good.  All they's gotta be's like Califorika and it's a lost cause with the concept of the educated masses.  Shit, we got high school kids in rich CA towns that can't even read a newspaper out loud, and it ain't 'cuz they need AA or NA, either.  

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 17:47 | 877509 jakethesnake76
jakethesnake76's picture

So with Record amounts of American population on Food stamps what does that do to our debt if prices go sky high on commodities ???

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 10:54 | 878580 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

Higher commodity prices will affect what food stamps can buy, but won't affect US debt unless the gov hikes the food stamp payments. Likely will force food stampers to eat a little lower on the food chain -- fewer Toaster Strudels, more Little Debbies?

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 21:14 | 878044 walküre
walküre's picture

Michelle O. will say "Let them eat Twinkies".

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 01:22 | 878338 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

I thought that was Bill Clinton's line when he was being magnamanious.

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 10:51 | 878577 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

For a second there, I thought you said monogamous and wondered when he said that.

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 23:53 | 878270 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Actually, though it's not as funny, MO is trying to get us to eat healthy foods. You might have missed it.

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 00:28 | 878295 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Soon to be mandated; along with monthly (weekly) bloodtests and screenings "for the children"

Fri, 01/14/2011 - 17:43 | 877501 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

What is unbelievable is how Bernanke gets a pass on all this craziness he has created single handily. The media is definately asleep or in the tank on all this madness. Not for long though when the mob hits the streets.

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