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Arbing Refi And High Dividend Event Risk

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Bernanke's transfer of capital from savers to corporations, courtesy of now perpetual ZIRP and trillions in upcoming QE, has made corporate refinancing for high grade companies a no-brainer. With Goldman issuing 50 year bonds at just over 6%, one can be sure that many companies will take the inflation call option and continue to refi existing IG debt into ever lower yields, courtesy of schizophrenic investors who are betting on both inflation and deflation (why else would someone lock up capital for 50 years even as the S&P trades at 20110 highs?). However, in addition to merely refinancing, banks are now also also eagerly incurring new debt for shareholder friendly activities. So what does that mean for investors who are obviously much more comfortable with putting their capital into bonds than stocks (23 weekly outflows from mutual funds)? Well, there's an arb for that.

As Bank of America observes, by first deconstructing the attractiveness of debt funded dividends for low debt, high grade companies, there is a substantial event risk for a variety of IG companies, which can be traded using CDS, and hedged using offsetting positions in a basket of low-risk names. In other words: buy CDS in event risk names, and sell CDS in low event risk. That said, BofA ignores the fact that a variety of companies on both sides (but especially in the short risk basket), don't have access to offshore cash with repatriation and taxation. Which is why, in addition to the Bank of America recommended trade, we go back to our suggestion from a month ago, which suggested buying CDS in cash rich companies whose cash horde, however, is offshore, such as tech names, and hedging it by selling CDS in domestically cash rich heavy IG names.

First, here is a simple synposis of why courtesy of ZIRP, funding dividends using debt may well be a no-braner.

The Corporate Capital Structure Trade

The current environment where interest rates have reached record lows, partly for technical reasons as explained above, has created risk for debt holders from a unique capital structure trade opportunity where corporations can enhance shareholder value by issuing debt to repurchase own shares. To see this, suppose that initially a corporate capital structure is optimal in the sense that leverage maximizes shareholder value. Then following a significant decline in the cost of debt – without a corresponding decline in the cost of equity – the capital structure is no longer optimal as there has been a decline in the cost of debt relative to equity. Specifically, corporations can enhance shareholder value by increasing leverage – for example by issuing debt to buy back shares.

In addition to a need for restoring an optimal capital structure, the current low cost of debt has two important incentives to increase leverage, as we show below. First, because the after-tax cost of servicing debt is below earnings yields many companies can design recapitalizations to increase earnings per share (EPS). Also, for companies with high dividend yields exceeding the after tax cost of debt the recap is self financing. In other words, the savings from not having to pay dividends on the repurchased shares are more than enough to service the new debt.

We highlight an event risk trade that we continue to recommend among low beta names – short a basket of names with event risk, long a basket without event risk.

Example of a recap

Below we show in Chart 8 and Chart 9 a hypothetical example of a recapitalization. Initially this company has no debt, earns $1/share ($1 EPS) and pays out a dividend of $0.5/share. With current low interest rates this company issues a $250 bond at an annual after-tax interest cost of 3% to buy back shares. Assuming for simplicity an unchanged share price this recapitalization has the effect of lowering after-tax earnings by 8%, but since the number of shares outstanding declines by 17% there is an $0.11 improvement in EPS.

Whether this increase in earnings per share enhances shareholder value depends on the new P/E multiple that the market assigns to the company given the new capital structure. Importantly, because the dividend yield in this example exceeds the after-tax cost of debt, the savings from not having to pay dividends on the shares repurchased are more than enough to cover the cost of servicing the new debt – we see that as +$0.5 in “interest coverage” in Chart 9 above. More generally we show in the sidebar chart (Chart 10) how this extra financial incentive increases with dividend yield. Note that, while we keep the dividend payout per share constant in this example, alternatively the company could choose to use the $8 in dividend savings on the repurchased shares to increase dividend payments per share.

Luckily for those who wish to hedge risk, there is a sufficient distribution around the mean to arb event, aka recap risk:

Chart 11 puts into perspective the magnitude of divergence between simple measures of costs of debt and equity for non-financial high grade (HG) companies. For the median company the earnings yield is 5.5 percentage points above the after-tax cost of debt. The degree to which the cost of equity exceeds the after-tax cost of debt is fairly evenly distributed around the median value. Moreover, as Chart 12 shows, for names with above median differences in relative costs, 45 companies have relatively high dividend yields above 3%.

And as the topic of this post is event hedging, the way to capitalize on the eagerness of everyone to refi, even though only half the companies will be able to pull it off without an impact on their credit standing and P/E.

Event Risk Trade

We continue to recommend a trade buying CDS protection on a basket of single-A or above rated industrials, selling protection on a basket of similar names but with little event risk as highlighted in Table 1 below. As can be seen in Chart 13, names with event risk have been underperforming since mid-summer.

Of course, at the end of the day the far more material question is how long is this ridiculous low interest rate sustainable for. Granted, companies may now be rushing to not only refinance existing debt and incur new debt in shareholder friendly moves, but the second rates turn up, all the IG names that are now trading at sub 50 bps will be the first to get hit. Which is why only pension and mutual funds should be selling naked CDS at sub 50 bps spreads, without a hedge on the other side. In fact, the only trades that should be established are pair trades, despite the fact that equity Long/Short investing is now pretty much dead: luckily, credit still makes a little sense.

 

 

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Tue, 10/26/2010 - 13:51 | 678106 walküre
walküre's picture

"(why else would someone lock up capital for 50 years even as the S&P trades at 2011 highs?)"

This needs some clarification or it is just too funny.

Tue, 10/26/2010 - 14:02 | 678129 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Upon watching the GS 50-year bond, it became obvious (to others probably much earlier) that this whole Fed re-liquification was about bonds and not stocks. Sure, getting the stock market up was an icing on the cake, but the bond market was the real prize. 

As many of us believe, the Fed's raison d'etre is to siphon as much wealth as possible from the public to the banks/its owners (which you might include the mega-corporations and the MIC). Driving interest rates to zero forces savers to commit their money to the bond market - to do anything for any semblance of yield. It has been a massive transfer of wealth - and has allowed for many Fed constituents to profit. I remember when in the Fall of 2008 when junk bonds traded at 50 cents on the dollar and liquidity was zilch. Now these same bonds trade for over par.

And now the trap is set. Not that the Fed wants to have anything collapse, but they have failed to blow another bubble in the economy. No organic loan growth = failing ponzi. And the savers are committed, and will be wiped out. 

Tue, 10/26/2010 - 14:09 | 678154 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

cool avatar joe. i'm thinking about getting one me-self..im lazy about that kinda shit tho. going to start abbrvtns w/ 0 vwls!

Tue, 10/26/2010 - 14:18 | 678176 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Thx. Bob allowed me to use his (he just did his yesterday). His is the original V in red (from the movie). I just changed the color/contrast. Feel free to take this one if you would like, and play with the color. Seems appropriate if you are angry about the rising fascism (or whatever 'ism you choose).

Simply right click on the avatar, save it to your desktop, edit it with a basic color editor (maybe white background?), and upload in the "My account" section.

Just passing Bob's offer along...

Cheers... 

Tue, 10/26/2010 - 14:07 | 678147 Hondo
Hondo's picture

Corporations increasing their debt in the capital structure and reducing equity...in an environment where top line growth is meager at best is a recipe for complete collapse.

Tue, 10/26/2010 - 14:22 | 678180 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

We have a date when QE2 will be announced and commodities are up 40 - 50% and the S&P 500 has factored it in with this rally. For comparison:

The first Gulf War was the first time we had a War By deadline. We knew the exact date it would start and all the mkts ran up and factored it in. On Jan. 17, 1991 when the bombing began ( overnight for us ) the mkts rallied initially then Fell out of the Sky. Crude oil opened the next day locked limit down. The spot month fell $ 10.00, and this was when the limit was expanded from its normal $1.00 limit either way.

Even though we bombed for the next month before ground troops began (it took 100 hours to wrap it up ) crude had fallen from the record high in the  $ 30s to $ 17.00. The point being that we did'nt know the outcome for a month before ground troops entered but the sell off happened the first day and stayed down.

If they dissappoint with QE2 it could get ugly.

Tue, 10/26/2010 - 14:22 | 678186 prophet
prophet's picture

I wonder which is more damaging: fallacious economic theory or accounting alchemy.

 

Tue, 10/26/2010 - 14:39 | 678223 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

neither is as damaging as the giant herpes you get from giving fellatio to the aforementioned..lots of cheerleaders fell of the wagon me thinks....too ashamed of simplex A..that and the riots in the street

 

 

Tue, 10/26/2010 - 15:26 | 678389 b_thunder
b_thunder's picture

does anyone still remember summer 2007?  the unending stream of stock buybacks, mainly by wall st banks and maynly on borrowed $$$$?

Bear, Lehman, Merril - all had $10B+ buybacks, just as market hit all-time highs.  imagine if 12 months later they had all that cash available....  well, not to worry, certain people cashed out at the top, sold their shares directly to the BSC's, MER's and LEh's treasurys...  at the top!  and the rest of shareholders are suckers anyway.

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 05:41 | 682745 Parag
Parag's picture

Even now, great investors are investing in yellowish metal at ranges unseen in decades, to guard towards fluctuations while in the really worth of currencies. Small investors are fleeing the stock options neighborhood in droves, favoring bonds and even money over equities. Companies have managed to market bonds that do not pay away for 50 or even 100 years.
http://www.guidetoinvest.net/betting-on-inflation.html

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