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Are Nuclear Chain Reactions Still Occurring at Fukushima?
You know that Fukushima reactors 1, 2 and 3 all melted down within hours of the Japanese earthquake.
You also know that at least some of the subsequent explosions could have been caused by small-scale nuclear reactions called "prompt moderated criticalities".
But you might not know that nuclear reactions may still be ongoing.
Specifically,
it is well-known by nuclear scientists that the ratio of iodine 131 to
cesium 137 tells a lot about when nuclear reactions have stopped. For
example, on May 2nd, University of Tokyo physics professor Tetsuo Matsui
published a scientific paper with the following summary:
We
calculate the relative abundance of the radioactive isotopes Iodine-131
and Cesium-137 produced by nuclear fission in reactors and compare it
with data taken at the troubled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant.
The ratio of radioactivities of these two isotopes can be used to obtain
information about when the nuclear reactions terminated.
Technology Review summarizes Professor Matsui's findings as follows:
Nuclear reactors produce radioactive by-products that decay at different rates. One common by-product is iodine-131 which has a half life of about 8 days while another is cesium-137 with a half life of about 30 years.
When
a reactor switches off, the iodine decays more quickly so the ratio
between these two isotopes changes rapidly over a period of days.
That's why measuring this ratio is a good way to work out when the
nuclear reactions terminated.
There are some complicating
factors, however. The most important of these is that the ratio of
iodine-131 and cesium-137 to start with depends on how long the reactor
has been operating and so is not constant.
***
Today, Tetsuo
Matsui at the University of Tokyo, says the limited data from Fukushima
indicates that nuclear chain reactions must have reignited at
Fuksuhima up to 12 days after the accident.
Matsui says the
evidence comes from measurements of the ratio of cesium-137 and
iodine-131 at several points around the facility and in the seawater
nearby. He has calculated what the starting ratio must have been by
assuming the reactors had been operating for between 7 and 12 months.
***
The data from the drain near reactor 2
and from the cooling pond at reactor 4, where spent fuel rods are
stored, indicate that the reactions must have been burning much later.
"The data of the water samples from the unit-4 cooling pool and
from the sub-drain near the unit-2 reactor show anomaly which may
indicate, if they are correct, that some of these ?ssion products were
produced by chain nuclear reactions reignited after the earthquake," he
says.
These chain reactions must have occurred a significant
time after the accident. "It would be di?cult to understand the
observed anomaly near the unit-2 reactor without assuming that a
signi?cant amount of ?ssion products were produced at least 10 - 15
days after X-day," says Matsui.
So things in reactor 2 must have been extremely dangerous right up to the end of March.
As Time Magazine blogger Eben Harrell pointed out on March 30th:
The
IAEA has said that the Fukushima nuclear power plant may have achieved
re-criticality. “There is no final assessment,” IAEA nuclear safety
director Denis Flory said at a press conference on Wednesday, according
to Bloomberg News. “This may happen locally and possibly increase the
releases.”
On April 18th, nuclear expert Arnie Gundersen said that iodine 131 readings indicated ongoing nuclear reactions.
Indeed, Gundersen says today:
Unit
3 may not have melted through and that means that some of the fuel
certainly is lying on the bottom, but it may not have melted through and
some of the fuel may still look like fuel, although it is certainly
brittle. And it's possible that when the fuel is in that configuration
that you can get a re-criticality. It's also possible in any of the fuel
pools, one, two, three, and four pools, that you could get a
criticality, as well. So there’s been frequent enough high iodine
indications to lead me to believe that either one of the four fuel pools
or the Unit 3 reactor is in fact, every once in a while starting
itself up and then it gets to a point where it gets so hot that it
shuts itself down and it kind of cycles.
Similarly, a Daily Kos writer points out today:
Radiation
levels in water inside the silt fence near reactor 2 are high and
rising, despite large amounts of dilution. Continued very high levels
of Iodine 131 with a half life of 8 days are very hard to explain for a
reactor that has been "shut down". Normally Iodine levels would drop
several orders of magnitude below cesium activity levels over the sixty
day period shown in the graph, but instead they continue to track each
other. The level of 10,000 Bq/liter I-131 is very problematic. It is
much higher than would be expected for a reactor in cold shut down for 2
1/2 months.
»
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Thank you for letting this thread roll. Looking forward to the big guns coming along later to comment on the latest news. We really appreciate your contributions Jim from MN, Element, and all the rest of you Good Hearts that add your light.
So, the gut feeling is this is just going to get worse so preparations for heavier fallout in the US are still on the front burner. To those who have real answers to protect us from this fallout, please post them as that is what many will be seeking. To those who have real answers to fix the problems in Fukushima, please mail them to the Japanese govt. They may be open to any real answers as to what to do now, or lets hope so because Tepco sure has lost it. One wonders if Arnie G. has made any attempts to communicate his knowledge to the Japanese govt?
Meanwhile, the situation is so bad, they are seeking a new level to classify it. This story is a little old and may have already been posted:
Nuclear engineers urging IAEA to create “Level 8″ on INES scale for Fukushimahttp://enenews.com/nuclear-engineers-urging-iaea-to-create-level-8-on-in...
How about the ongoing cover up? How many are happy about that?
And last, does anyone have any links to fallout animations or plume models?
You can purchase lead sheet at a foundry for a start.
A tornado shelter under three feet of earth with sufficient room inside will assist greatly.
Finally visit Nukealert, LLP Gonzales Texas. They are one of the top sources for this kind of problem.
Thank you for letting this thread roll. Looking forward to the big guns coming along later to comment on the latest news. We really appreciate your contributions Jim from MN, Element, and all the rest of you Good Hearts that add your light.
So, the gut feeling is this is just going to get worse so preparations for heavier fallout in the US are still on the front burner. To those who have real answers to protect us from this fallout, please post them as that is what many will be seeking. To those who have real answers to fix the problems in Fukushima, please mail them to the Japanese govt. They may be open to any real answers as to what to do now, or lets hope so because Tepco sure has lost it. One wonders if Arnie G. has made any attempts to communicate his knowledge to the Japanese govt?
Meanwhile, the situation is so bad, they are seeking a new level to classify it. This story is a little old and may have already been posted:
Nuclear engineers urging IAEA to create “Level 8″ on INES scale for Fukushimahttp://enenews.com/nuclear-engineers-urging-iaea-to-create-level-8-on-in...
How about the ongoing cover up? How many are happy about that?
And last, does anyone have any links to fallout animations or plume models?
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/news/fukushima?LANG=en&VAR=niluja...
www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/news/fukushima?LANG=en&VAR=eurad5000
The models stop on May 5th as the danger is over presumably.
But what does this all MEAN? Inquiring minds want to know.
Is this ungodly radioactive soup subject to exploding? If so, big like a nuclear bomb, or something smaller?
So, there is a meltdown. OK, but what are the real specific long term ramifications? Wasteland for 50 miles, 100 miles, more? Venting radioactive plumes for how long? How bad can it get? How long can it last? What are the risks for Tokyo and other major populaion centers? How extensive could crop and livestock damage be? Any answers?
Thanks GW.
Briefly: lots of misinformation. Why?
B/C TEPCO and Japanese government can't get the facts and won't release the few facts they have.
They cannot get the facts b/c nobody can go into the reactors and look. The instrumentation is broken. Everyone is an 'Armchair Quarterback' including TEPCO, IAEA, NRC and luminaries such as Arnie Gunderson.
Nobody knows where or in what configuration the cores are in. Nobody knows the condition of fuel in spent fuel pools or the structural integrity of the concrete reactor buildings. What is known is the buildings are sieves, slowly deteriorating due to bad design, cheap construction, poor foundations being undermined by water flows and non-stop earthquakes adding to the effects of high temperatures and huge radiation loads.
At least one of the 'cores' is critical; in unit 3:
http://www.economic-undertow.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Reactor-temp...
The water in the buildings is intensely radioactive, to the point where the presumed 'treatment' is probably not possible. If the steam in unit 1 is 4 Sieverts, the water is also 4 Sieverts: tens of thousands of tons of this water.
Cutting the flow of water not only allows reactor temperatures to rise but increases the radiation burden carried by the water.
The next act is going to play out: a building collapse, a spent- fuel fire, a steam explosion or prompt- criticality in unit 3 ... or all of the above.
Time for a 'Plan B'.
Plan B?? Not yet surely? (blow out the ledge japan is sitting on, into the trench it lies above, and blame it on a big quake?
Maybe you mean time for Plan C or something more constructive like if OUR WORLD GOVERNMENTS would stop fighting resource wars and each other......and go
HELP JAPAN STOP THIS MONSTER!!
yeah yeah I know. dream on.
I agree with fix-it tony. Send DC over there for 'cleanup' duty. Wait until they 'feel a little different' THEN pack them up and ship 'em back so their family's can watch the wasting. I say this only because I have yet to hear a spouse speak up other than how nice a home they bought
Check this out: http://atmc.jp/plant/rad/?n=1
Graph of drywell radiation in unit #1. Latest reading is 250 Sv/Hr.
I used to think the high values here had to be a scale factor error, but no, it seems it's really 250 Sv, not milli-Sv.
Now notice that the reading has been chopping up and down between about 50 Sv/Hr, and over 200 Sv/Hr.
I can only interpret that as either instrumentation failure (and TEPCO are not suggesting it is), or.... intermitent re-criticality in the mess that's cooking away on the floor of the #1 drywell.
Does anyone know any way to estimate the kind of heat output that would be associated with a corium mass producing 250 Sv/hr?
I don't, but I'm guessing it must be a pretty significant amount of heat.
In his interview at http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/exclusive-arnie-gundersen-interview-d... Mr Gundersen mentions that he doesn't think a corium mass can go critical.
Is he quite, quite sure of that? Bearing in mind this one is probably under water, mixed with all kinds of stuff that it melted through (steel, control rods, concrete), and maybe in some weird shapes due to the outside skin being cooled by water, but the inside molten.
Messy, chaotic real situations have a habit of not obeying 'theory'.
Was just reading an article:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jBIQnMYeMGZGyi0UWG7vn...
Purportedly approx two hours old... so you know, recent... up to date...
Anyway, the quote I liked was this:
Hmmm... forgive me if my maths is a little weak here - but doesn't 4,000 millisieverts actually = 4 Sieverts. (per hour)
Which also = lethal...???
I guess that's what they mean by - way above the safe limit to enter...
The safe limit as agreed internationally is 1 millisievert/yr
The japanese authorities changed that to 20 millisieverts/yr. That level is much too high, but this newly legal threshold is a way to avoid having to compensate people, to avoid having to evacuate people, etc. For the State and the operator it is STILL a question of money.
Two stories here:
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/06/fukushima-i-nuke-plant-reactor-1.html
Fukushima I Nuke Plant Reactor 1: Packbot Detects 4 Sieverts/Hour Radiation
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/06/video-of-4-sieverthour-steam-gushing....
Video of 4-Sievert/Hour Steam Gushing Out in Reactor 1 at #Fukushima
First story includes link to video from TEPCOs website. Though it's sad to see a huge supposedly technical corp like TEPCO doing something so stupid as zipping a video file. There's a joke in there somewhere about entropy and nuclear reactors, but it doesn't quite come to me.
Yes, you're right about 4000 milliSv being 4Sv. And about the lethality. A few minutes of which will kill. I think _that's_ the corner we should make the bankers go and sit in.
We are sure that you must be aware of the fact that a radioactive bankster has a half life exceeding a quarter million years.
We are sure that you must be aware of the fact that a radioactive bankster has a half life exceeding a quarter million years.
Didn't they fix all that Fukushima Nuclear melt-down
by covering it up with a big plastic Tent and some epoxy glue ?
Japan's Latest Proposal To Contain Fukushima's Radioactive Fallout - A (Circus) Tent
From DJ: "Giant polyester covers will soon be placed around the damaged reactor buildings at Japan's Fukushima nuclear complex to help contain the release of radioactive substances into the atmosphere, the plant operator said Friday. Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) will install the first cover at the No. 1 reactor, the focus of recent stabilization efforts, starting next month."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/japans-latest-proposal-contain-fukushim...
If you call 800-RAIDE8S it's almost like nothing happened. According to the recorded message..."Today is (insert day of week) everything is fine. Tomorrow will be fine too. This message was sponsored by Tokyo favorite take out sushi restaurant...Sushi to Glo
Our Planet is Toast folks.
Dr Helen Caldicott - Fukushima Nuclear Disaster- You won't hear this on the Main Stream News.
.....""Einstein said, "The splitting of the atom changed everything, save Man's mode of thinking."
Very profound...thus we drift towards unparalleled catastrophe...We are arrogant, we have a lot of hubris,and I think the reptilian mid brain of some men's brains is pathalogical.
We are now in a situation where we have harnessed the energy of the sun, it is totally out of control and there is simply nothing we can do about it.
Fukushima is the greatest public health hazard the world has ever witnessed apart from the threat, every day, of Nuclear War.""
http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/06/dr-helen-cald...
Whatever happened to the Fukushima 50?
The fukushima 50 were only as real as the easter bunny or Santa Claus and like all the toys of childhood put away forever past the prying eyes of reality. They were a PR ploy, it turns out there were hundreds of low paid and minimally trained workers onsite the whole time. One of them walked thru a radioactive puddle and made the news. Who would have thought a radioactive puddle of water in the basement of a leaky reactor filled with sea water?
Might very well be the Fukushima 0 now :(
Many thanks to GW for the great continued reporting.
All this and still no bells are ringing. The mass mind remains asleep at the wheel. Should we wonder why when we know the beginnings of this insanity start in the schools. The early childhood schools teach them to be good followers and instead of good thinkers. The lucky ones get to go play the "Higher Education" game.
College Conspiracy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpZtX32sKVE
This was up last night and explains well why we see a world wide catastrophe happening and most americans do not even know it.
THE REALITY DETACHED AMERICANhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCxBDDk4Y-M
To know we are all slowly dying faster, or not. To protect ourselves as best as possible, or not. Really, what can be done as this out of control disaster in Japan gets worse?
State of the Nation?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJuNgBkloFE
hepa. reverse osmosis. polimaster pm1208/terra mks 05.
Polimaster pm1208 is the watch geiger counter I have. Just tested it on flight AND THROUGIN AN XRAY MACHINE. sorry for caps.
It works well. 0.07ms background normal. spike to 0.35 in flight at 26,000 feet.
You can't put too much water in a nuclear reactor. Why didn't they listen?
Actually, as Arnie Gunderson argues, filling the buildings with water may very well push them into structural failure, especially during another earthquake (water is extremely heavy!). A partially failed containment structure is better than a completely failed containment structure. Especially since we are talking about a site that may very well require on-going maintenance for several hundred years before ultimate decommissioning.
Personally I believe this whole fiasco is an excellent argument against allowing *any* nuclear uprates to occur in the United States (uprating is the process of doing minor modifications to a nuclear power plant, and typically running it 20% harder to produce more electricity). Build new nukes with sufficient thermal masses (ie: cooling circuit water) to withstand shutdown without forced circulation -- but don't try and pimp out 40-year-old plants merely to make a few extra bucks. (most operating US reactors were only designed for 30 year lifespans, and most have received licenses for up to 60 years of operation!).
One gramme per cc is not heavy relative to the density of concrete or the average for the earth's crust (around 6grm/cc).
Sure...but its nowhere near as light as most of the intended design contents of those reactor buildings -- air. Only certain compartments within the buildings have been properly engineered and re-inforced to contain water including the dynamic loads and corrosion that water brings.
+10 Thanks!
I find this hard to believe. Japan's PM said,"it's only a tiny leak" for days after the earthquake and tsunami.
I think the zirconium cladding of the fuel can react with water to release at a low enough temperature to remain solid. The melting point of zirconium is 2128 K or 3371 F. Thats pretty hot. The melting point of the stainess steel holding the fuel bundles is lower than that.
release what? i'm not sure of what you're saying here.
Once a nuclear pile runs away there is no reason it will stop. Cherynolble is still melting it's sarcophagus.
Unit 3 is cool because it's entire contents are lying on the ground around the plant.
It's very simple. In order to get hydrogen gas you must have melting. If you have melting there is no way to cool the pile because all the water you dump on it turns to steam before it gets anywhere close to the fuel.
This is a crime against humanity. The liars should either come clean with the truth or face extermination.
Xenon poisoning. The fission byproduct Xe135 absorbs neutrons, and if enough is created, the reaction slows until it decays (9.2 hour half-life). This could set up a system that would start and stop on it's own.
agreed tunga, a crime of the utmost severity to humanity. i volunteer all banksters and "elected leaders" be sent to clean-up work duty immediately.
You forgot the Realtors (r), and used car salesmen.
You should give a pass to the poor lackeys and go for the real source of the problems; politicians, lawyers, investment bankers, union leadership, university professors, and AARP.
The world would be a much happier and safer place were it not for the aforementioned.
All above mentioned lackeys and the all important LOBBYISTS !
I would suggest adding regulators to the short list of mandatory 'volunteers' - both financial and nuclear refulators, they have many sins to atone for. To give their lives in sacrifice to the nuclear fires of fukushima would restore their honor.
Nuke Baby Nuke!
I thought nuke was clean and green and safe like little bunnies
George, Here's a story to make you ill:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/03/fukushima_iaea_preliminary_report/
I have a lot of time for Lewis Page. The information he imparts on military matters is concise and informative. He seems strangely blinkered on nuclear power, though.