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Are States' Pensions the Next Crisis?
Virginia's News & Advance reports, Are States' Pensions the Next Crisis?:
Just as America is finally showing signs of digging out of the financial meltdown and the Great Recession of 2008, there are already warning bells being sounded for the next possible scare: government pension programs.
Earlier this week, the Pew Center on the States issued the results of its “fiscal stress test” of the 50 state pension programs, and the results are troubling to say the least.
All told, the Pew center estimates that government pension funds and health care programs are underfunded by more than $1.2 trillion today, a clear sign that something must be done now to avoid a great deal of misery down the road.
Though the Pew study looked at pension funds during 2008 and 2009, the depth of the Great Recession, the results should serve as a wake-up call to political leaders across the nation, including here in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
The Pew center reports that 31 states are funding their government pension funds at levels below the point most experts consider safe, 80 percent of the plan’s expected needs.
Several states — California, Illinois and Ohio are among the worst — have shortfalls dangerously below safe levels. Illinois, the worst state, has only 51 percent of its plan’s projected needs currently funded.
Here in Virginia, while we’re not as bad off as some, there’s not much to be proud of.
The Virginia Retirement System, with about $56 billion is assets, currently has a projected shortfall of $17.6 billion. While that doesn’t mean that VRS, the source of retirement income for thousands of state and local government workers, is in any danger of becoming insolvent, it’s not a sign of long-term health.
Leaders of the General Assembly and the governor recognize the long-term problem of underfunding the VRS, but that hasn’t stopped them from dipping into the plan’s reserves in the past to cover holes in the commonwealth’s budget.
Such was the case during the 2010 session of the Assembly, when more than $620 million was shifted from the VRS coffers to the General Fund in order to balance the budget.
The Assembly promised to repay the VRS, with interest, but, to date, their promise remains just that: words.
Virginia’s not alone in “borrowing” from its pension funds, according to the Pew study. Many states decided to skip their payments to their employees’ pension plans in order to shore up their current cash reserves.
But what they don’t want to admit is that, sooner or later, the bill will come due. And the longer they wait, the higher the bill will be.
There is still time for state leaders, here in Virginia and across the country, to own up to the magnitude of the problem and take the actions needed, whether that’s cutting benefits or raising taxes and cutting spending in other areas to cover their obligations.
And they need to do it sooner rather than later.
You can read details on the Pew study by clicking here. Below are the highlights on The Trillion Dollar Gap Growing Wider:
The gap between the promises states have made for public employees’ retirement benefits and the money set aside to pay for them grew to at least $1.26 trillion in fiscal year 2009—a 26 percent increase in one year—according to a Pew report.
The Widening Gap: The Great Recession’s Impact on State Pension and Retiree Health Care Costs analyzes 2009 and 2010 data on states' funding of pensions and retiree health care. The report shows how states’ retirement systems—many of them already on shaky ground—were affected by the Great Recession:
- Pension funding shortfalls accounted for $660 billion of the $1.26 trillion gap, and unfunded retiree health care costs accounted for the remaining $635 billion.
- States had only about $31 billion, or 5 percent, saved toward their obligations for retiree health care benefits.
- State pension plans were 78 percent funded, declining from 84 percent in 2008.
The decline in states' funded status isn't shocking. Assets got hit during the financial crisis and liabilities exploded up as interest rates hit historic lows. It's important to remember that funded status will vary considerably year-to-year but swings a lot less over a four-year period. It took pensions many years to recover after the tech meltdown back in 2000, and this time it will take longer.
The problem now is that state pension funds still hold onto rosy
investment assumptions, still use a high discount rate and states are
still not topping up pension plans, increasing the retirement age and
contribution rate or cutting benefits. Sooner or later, the chicken will
come home to roost. Nonetheless, I don't buy all the fear mongering
going on right now, all in an effort to weaken traditional
defined-benefit plans. US state pensions need to be reformed, and new
governance standards need to implemented at many state plans, but let's
not blow things way out of proportion. This isn't the next crisis and
anyone who thinks so is completely out to lunch.
investment assumptions, still use a high discount rate and states are
still not topping up pension plans, increasing the retirement age and
contribution rate or cutting benefits. Sooner or later, the chicken will
come home to roost. Nonetheless, I don't buy all the fear mongering
going on right now, all in an effort to weaken traditional
defined-benefit plans. US state pensions need to be reformed, and new
governance standards need to implemented at many state plans, but let's
not blow things way out of proportion. This isn't the next crisis and
anyone who thinks so is completely out to lunch.
**Please donate to Pension Pulse by signing up to PayPal and then clicking on the PayPal button at the top right-hand side of my blog under the pig.**
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Just wait until the US guts social security, and medicare (probably soon after the 2012 election). If you think the general populace is going to support federal, state, local pensions, and retirement medical benefits after the "guaranteed retirement" they have been promised by politician, after politician since FDR is taken away, think again. Remember that we could not privatize social security, because people need that guaranteed income. If you bought something like krugerands with your retirement money, they might become worthless.
I realize that the supreme court says that all those promises by government officials, year after year,since the 1930s don't constitute a contract, like a single promise of a pension from a government official does, but Joe sixpack won't see that way. The truth is, I agree with Joe.
I'm pretty sure supreme court justices are entitled to a federal pension, if they don't keel over in office. If a justice finds that his pension is invioate, isn't that a conflict of interest, particularly while saying that social security benefits are not? Perhaps one worthy of impeachment? Heck if he is impeached, I'd say he should lose his pension.
1.26T deficit in 2009 NO PROBLEM ... the market was very low at that time ...
These days probably they have 1.26T Surplus so the problem is solved ( with the printing press of course ) ... at least till the time when all this BS paper money based on stock pumping start to hit the real goods. At that time better have useful THINGS that can not be "produced" exponentially.
what happened to contract law... unions or no unions rite... your telling me states can just bend unions over take their money and noone gets to vote on it... even if it brings the stupidity of backroom deals into the open and the people would not stand for it possibly ridiculing the unions/legislatures... taxation based on faulse representation followed by petty theft and contract abridgment
.
way to go .gov... the english kings sex fiesta on the public dime aint much different
They can raise taxes and the productive citizens will simply leave. Then they are left with illegal immigrants, government employees, and welfare recipients. The sooner the ponzi scheme collapses, the better.
Hyperinflation will solve everything. It has to because that appears to be the plan by killing the dollar.
Commander, you wouldn't by any chance be of the Lost Planet Airmen variety, would you?
Exactly! They promised to pay you in dollars...they never promised those dollars would be worth anything. It's what they DON'T say that'll kill ya.
Is so easy, a caveman could print it away... ;-)
Yep. The Natives know that all too well. They still get four bucks every year on Treaty Day. Promise kept. Suckers.
What would happen to these state pension funds if (when?) there is another stock market meltdown similar if not greater than the last one?
Let's face it, the current lofty levels of this market are not justified by anything other than a completely collapsing dollar. Something has got to give.
Like all stats based on gubment inputs, 2 + 2 may or may not equal 4 based on forward or backward assumptions, birth/death modeling, seasonal factors and weather patterns.
the assumption that the various States have no assets only liabilities is simply false. Moreover a rising equity market "puts a bid" into these assets. Needless to say the taxpayer is terribly served should a state be forced to sell as "those are assets states borrow against" and "the prices paid for said assets can be far below market rates." I have no doubt Wall Street is doing the math.
Exactly what assets do states have? They are not like businesses that produce goods and services. They can only tax the residents and beating a dead horse won't produce any results.
They can only tax the residents and beating an indebted horse won't produce any results. There, fixed it for ya.
Leo, The Pew study is far too kind, at least here in Illinois. A Northwestern Professor of Accounting has calculated the actual funding level--not better than 30% in any Illinois state pension, and less in some. His credentials are unimpeachable, unlike the left leaning Pew Institute, which takes government statements at face value.
Pensions? No, the next and current crisis is the USD. Everything else is a sideshow.
Oh. Oh. I love this game! This is where you make a desperate plea on the behalf of pensioners for taxes, and then apply an insignigicant amount of it to the pensions, if and only if someone is watching, and then share the rest with your pals.
What was the old Roman saw about getting a governorship? The first year paid off your bribes, the second kept you out of court, and the third was all cream?
I wish I could get in on it.
Leo, how do you see the layoffs amongst state workers and not including new hires in them affecting these state pension funds? Is it it negative because-
A. those being laid off are already vested and will take their benefits as soon as they are eligible
B. Fewer contributors to the plan due to both layoffs and not including new workers.
or does the reduction in numbers reduce the state's ultimate payout?
A simple law change allowing states to run deficits and it is back to buy the dips. Move along.
States are allowed to run deficits. It's called selling bonds.
There's absolutely nothing to fear if you're a state worker...or any current or former public sector employee. The government will (if they have to) seize every last penny of private wealth before they miss payment on a single pension check.
That's pretty good security.
Get a government job kids. Any government job.
The banker-gangsters will be perfectly even-handed with you, right Mercury?
Good that you'd rather liquidate libraries than tax Forex turnover ... priorities REALLY in the right place: hookers and dope for twenty-something White kids who produce NOTHING other than destitution and misery.
Actually most of the original public libraries in the United Sates were built by "banker-gangster" Andrew Carnegie. How are governments handling that stewardship?
Well, not very well since a great deal of costly and unnecessary (if not downright harmful) government has sprouted up since Carnegie's time and when the SHTF the government always threatens to cut back on core responsibilities and infrastructure...not diversity counselors, public employee benefits or elaborate "social services."
Sadly, many public libraries have already been closed down by municipalities desperate for cash to fund programs and agencies they have no business being involved with in the first place.
Politicians would probably be closing public library doors even faster if so many of them didn't function as homeless shelters and pornography access sites.
At least Carnegie spent his money in a way that actually benefited people, not only in large cities, but in smaller ones as well. He not only funded the building, but in many cases the books that were purchased for those libaries. There are not many rich folks today, beneficiaries of Republican Tax Cuts, who are doing anything like it. Not to say he didn't benefit from his largess, but at least he helped out communities large and small have a place to read.
I know of several small communities which are very proud of their Carneigie library.
Alas that Noblise Oblige is missing from high socieity today.
There was $308 BILLION in charitable donations in the US in 2008. I'm sure they were all made by poor people on welfare and not the wealthy. How stupid can you democrats possibly be? I'm amazed that you knuckle draggers made it to adulthood.
I'm a democrat who believes government pensions are excessive and that taxes are generally high enough. That said, I prefer to encourage my party to govern better rather than support a party led by financial oligarchs whose vision is corporate feudalism.
Yes, I know that both parties are "equally corrupt", but until something better comes along, I have no interest in cutting my own throat.
"Sadly" indeed, Mercury. Your empathy is heart-warming.
While I'm not a huge fan of your impulse to genocide, I appreciate your honesty. As long as those municipalities keep paying the banker-gangsters it's all good for you.
"LIQUIDATE PUBLIC EDUCATION! LIQUIDATE PUBLIC HEALTH!" is your mantra. Just lay off the banker-gangsters' opium stash. That's the ONLY thing that's sacred and untouchable.
Starvation and hunger is fine, as long as the Keyboard Cowboys who steal for a living keep their whores and their smack.
And their bonuses. "DON'T LIQUIDATE MY FUCKING BONUS!"
The federal budget was $1.9 trillion in 2001 and is now $3.7 trillion for 2011. That's nearly a 100% increase over 10 years. Have you FUCKING MORONS noticed a 100% increase in government services to justify the 100% increase in government spending? Have you FUCKING FOOLS wondered why they need to shut down libraries and other government services now that they are spending TWICE as much money as they were spending 10 years ago? Those precious FUCKING libraries of yours could be funded with $1.9 trillion, but they can't be funded with $3.7 trillion.
How much of that has been taken on thanks to the banker-gangsters you suck off daily fucking up the world economy with their little derivatives casinos?
How much of it is the wars you little banker-gangsters finance, because they love seeing dead Brown and Black people?
And how much of the fault lies with cities who pay workers too much to collect trash?
Your obvious solution: close hospitals and hand out more trillions of free paper to the banker-gangsters who caused the crisis! BRILLIANT!!
"More paper for ME! More hookers for ME! More crank for ME! Thanks, Mr. Dimon ... sir."
- sun tzu
Why don't you tell me how much of the $3.7 trillion 2011 federal budget is going to the bankers. Give us some numbers to back up your wisdom. Enlighten us greedy racists who want to see little black and brown children die.
Let's start with the Pentagon budget, which amounts to 50% of the total budget.
That's a lot of billions of dollars, printed by private banks and contracted out to mercenary killers, for the purposes of exterminating Black and Brown people throughout the planet. All of us living here on Uncle Sam's plantation are obligated to repay private banks for that.
STU-PID!
I'll base further responses on how you address this obvious truism.
Obviously the TBTF financial sector oligarchy is ruining the system. But so is the unbridled growth of the public sector - and worse, they operate in concert and protect each other (now, more than ever) at the expense of everyone else. Woe to those who don't have a leg in either camp.
There are very few things that governments can do well. Apparently administering pensions isn't one of them.
Don't you know that all government failure is due to the libertarians that dominate government at all levels? If only we give the government more of our money, they will spend it more wisely and make better decisions.
is the rate of funding indirectly in proportion to gov't corruption in those states?? hummm ? just askin
The shortfall is directly proportional to the amount the banker-gangsters have stolen from public coffers in their little opium filled derivatives casinos.
The parasites steal real wealth from people who actually WORK for a living, and they do it with money borrowed from the people themselves. Theft on a grand scale.
And all for hookers and designer shoes!
Yet most ZeroHedge posters prioritize these brigands and their money addiction above all other priorities, no matter how genocidal or destructive.
Because they know how their bread is buttered.
I've been here a bit longer than you and have the solid impression that 'most ZH posters' would rather see these institutions razed with their inner denizens decorating lamposts. Or is that just me....? ;-)
So only deep red states have pension funding mandate problems? Awesome! They can default, lose all ability to hire public workers, and finally return their states to the Somali ideal they've always claimed to want.
Go, Rand!
The New England states, Illinois and Michigan are deep red? Were you born stupid or did your mom drop you down the stairs when you were a little turd?
where's china to bail out the states?
they're the ones holding up those beautiful fans at all the auctions.
the tipping point will be when the public pigs have a major run on the pension ponzi scam to get theirs before it collapses, which will cause it to collapse
i wouldnt want to be 15 years into the pyramid scam and holding any of those soon to be worthless IOUS
In my city, the bus drivers' pension fund was underfunded in 2009 due to the return of rational valuations in the stock market in 2008. Our city had to give the fund $15 million in cash to bring it back up to funded status.
I'll never understand why if my RRSP's are invested in a TSE index fund and the pension fund is invested in the same fund, and the index fund loses 50% of its value I have to absorb my own personal loss and then give some more of my own money to some other guy to compensate him for his loses because he is part of this pension plan.
Because that's the whole con.
The wealth stolen (and devalued over time) from working people feeds the Capitalist ponzi. Things are happening EXACTLY as they should.
You mean the socialist ponzi of taxpayers covering the losses of union pension investments
Unlike the banker-gangsters, I didn't enter into any contracts that were bullshit from the start. The pension plans lied to the masses they've looted. You don't give a shit, because you got a fancy little man-purse because of it.
But that doesn't mean it didn't happen.
Be sure to specify to whom those 'losses' MUST be paid: those bailed out banker-gangsters, who looted it fair and square from their gambling dens, using taxpayer money borrowed at 0%.
Making certain that people who actually WORK for a living do so in order to pay off the banker-gangsters you serve is the ONLY thing that matters.
Nothing else is important, because YOUR drugs and YOUR hookers trump civilization.
The losses are paid to the pensions ya moron. Yeah the bankers were bailed out thanks to Bush, Pelosi, Reid, Obama, Paulson, Geithner and the rest. Were you and your hookers in the streets protesting? No, you and your hookers were sucking off the bankers
Workers who have dutifully paid into the Illinois pension fund, per their contract, will be happy to know that 'sun tzu' said their losses are paid.
My mother will be really excited. She'll probably ask me to ask 'sun tzu' when she could expect her portion of the bailout.
The very definition of government.