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Are We Getting Closer... To Something?
Submitted by Nic Lanoir, ICAP
The debate is fairly heated between bulls and bears. Bears are aggravated by media led propaganda trying to claim victory when nothing fundamental other than issuing sovereign debt and changing accounting standards for the worst has been achieved. Bulls look at the business cycle, with ISM numbers now expected to hit 60 in the next couple months, a steep yield curve guarantying banks solid income, and China leading the world out of the recession.
Fundamentally I think it's clear the bears are right in my opinion. Fairly little has been achieved, and even though inventories are low, that's probably not enough to start a bull market. The list of obstacles barring us from sain growth is much longer than that of the pros. However that doesn't mean we cannot go higher, possibly a lot. The new argument being put out is that mutual funds have to get long as they missed the initial rally. While that would be incredibly stupid, we cannot rule it out. However, it seems to me like an argument by someone who needs a reason. Unless I see a smartly written piece, with detailed flows, quantified estimates of money sidelined dying to jump in the market, and the whole thing is put in historical perspective in quantitative fashion, that is only words. Pictures of empty office buildings in China, closed stores, foreclosures, gap between marked to market and accrual accounting, those are all things we can see or quantify.
Whether the next move is simply a correction of a 60% rally or a new bear leg is a separate question all together. After all, a 50% retracement of the rally would mean a 25% move. The real argument is liquidity. The markets are being flooded with cash, and that is the only thing bears are really fighting here. As the quantitative easing is about to end, unless it's extended, one can wonder what will happen. Other stimulus programs like cash for clunkers are ending, and we will not even mention the Fed's balance sheet which has yet to be shrunk in any fashion. Still, is it enough of a catalyst?
The arguments for a bear market were the same, other than high level of unemployment and credit tightness, ahead of the credit crisis: high levels of debt, weak labor market structurally with manufacturing in shambles, unfair competition from cheap producing countries, energy dependance, aging population, unfunded pension liabilities... The underlying is about the same in fact, and higher unemployment or credit tightness are more reflections of these factors and the degradation of the underlying economy rather than proper catalysts. The subprime crisis in itself was the catalyst in 2007. It's the fact that it made people realize the state of the bigger picture that mattered the most though. At this point, it is hard to imagine what will cause a return to risk aversion. Commercial real estate is a well documented issue, everyone pretty much knows that the resets of mortgages in 2010 and 2011 are huge, it is well understood that unemployment will be in double digits at some point, and any slack in production or bank failure is immediately thrown taxpayer money at in short fashion and kept beyond the 10th page in every newspaper. It's virtually impossible to know what will trigger another wave of realization of the poor fundamentals behind our economy, maybe it will simply be a slow reduction of stimulus and concurrent degradation of economic releases that will sneakily trigger an avalanche. What we can focus on is what to look for in terms of signs in the markets that a turn is happening.
I have attached a few simple charts, and I will start with currencies, that are often times the better indicators of broad trends these days. EURJPY has not made new highs since June while stocks have been surging higher. Usually the two are very highly correlated, but we have significant divergence here, and the 50 and 100 daily moving averages are posting a bearish cross. EURUSD has also been a pro-equity trade because people short the USD to take on risk, and the chart shows that we are starting to have momentum divergence trying to take out the highs of last December. The same could be said about oil, or gold, which is at the highs, but has so far failed to break out higher. Will stocks gradually correct while the other markets range before all these carry trades scream higher? That's a possibility, but certainly not our favored scenario. So here are the levels in these markets to look for that would indicate we might be in trouble, given they have a tendancy to lead equities:
A break of the H&S neckline in EURJPY around 130.70 A close below the 50 day moving average in EURUSD A break on a close of the support line for oil (between 67.5 and 68) A close today of the gold future below 995 today (would trigger a weekly hammer)
Stocks don't have as many clear elements beyond the Elliott wave considerations, to which I pay a lot of attention but they are not market favorites. However, the S&P future is getting awfully close to the 88 week moving average which has been perfect support for bull markets and resistance for bear markets... I would be very cautious if we make it up to 1,079, watch what happened in May 2008...
Keep an eye on these triggers, and good luck trading,
Nic
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If you see a large move a week before quarterly expiration it is often a good bet to look for a move in the opposite direction for expiration week. We used to do this on the trading floor.
Agreed.
YES
Barton Biggs on Bloomberg says 1250 SPX this year and 1350 next year (unless we have a double dip)
Barton Biggs is a Double Dip!
Hell, I'd believe Joe Granville before him. Ha Ha
Things will go up, if not they will go down.
if not there is always a sideways move
Bears will get slaughtered. The market is in the hands of the government now and the government can!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO2eh6f5Go0
Barton Biggs is a freaking ratard, who has been bullish since b/f anyone on this blog was born.
thanks for the info on nat gas - sure moved down hard just about the time you posted
most interesting is the spread between oct/nov didn't change from yesterday to today, despite the roll starting on monday.
this is interesting.pay attention to the first paragraph.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/215177/page/1
Oh, that's nice, the MSM is making a hero out of Jamie Dimon... perfect... unbelievable... I guess they have to craft heroes out of thin air now... since there were no actual heroes involved in any of this... maybe he can stand next to President Obama in his speech in Friday and receive a key to the country.
Wilson did that to JP Morgan back in the day too. Same old song and dance.
I actually think the very last paragraph might be the most telling...
Hope you don't mind... I tossed the link with your name as the finder onto the RadioZero thread... they are looking for things to talk about... and think you might have found it...
Always flattered if you use my name.
thank you lizzy....i had never heard about that MS matter.....has my head been up my ass and I missed something or was this out there previously?
The bulls are just creating a giant feedback loop by chasing second derivative change.
Big question is whaat happens in Oct once earnings start coming in without much revenue growth. Will they sell?
No... they probably will somehow whip themselves into a frenzy over the Y/Y improvement from the previous quarter... and we will rally once again
aaaah yes, "better than expected" top line revs
Jenga - Jenga - Jenga - Jenga
Edge of your seat FUN!
interesting post from Tim Knight on his short, mid and long range call on the markets
"No hedging; no equivocating; no weasel words. I believe the following:
I don't believe we're heading for an apocalyptic plunge."
http://slopeofhope.com/2009/09/my-targets-for-the-sp-500.html
numbnuts tim... there won't even be a market in 2014. earth will be smoking by then.
dude, skynet takes control in 2011
nope, 12-21-2012
please tell me you googled that.
side note, my buddy did all the ARG for sarah connor chronicles, hes hard up for cash, I should buy his terminator head from him that they used in the series.
I just bought another 2012 book... fasinating stuff...
my wife has been following it for some time....quite interesting.
all i know is that i will NOT do any xmas shopping that year until 12-22 at a minimum (if at all).
I just love the 2012 stuff, but I'm much more from the scientific aspect, but I also fully believed in Y2K. Although nothing really happened to the computers, I think we all know what happened to tech that year, and some say that the current (yes I said current) bear market started in 2000.
I'm especially intrigued with Solar Maximus coming in 2012, here's a great HD IMAX film on the power of Solar Max and why a major influx in both quantity and magnitude of sun spots may be something anyone who depends on electromagnetics might want to pay attention to. Also, the earths magnetic field has been steadily decreasing for several years now, which IMO, is as, if not more, important, and another possible explanation of, global warming. Something that is NEVER disscussed on M$M, I guess there is no market for taxing it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXZEf1AzbuE
all 4 parts are on this guy's channel...
who is tim anyway? anyone knows his prev targets?
Everyone w/ pulse and a keyboard's got an opinion on the market, hmmm, who to believe?
I believe anybody who tries to make a market prediction with a time frame longer than 24 hours is a damned fool.
So you can predict the market moves in the next half hour during trading?
The only market prediction that I can make is for periods where trading is closed.
Ya. Like when a market get's all crazy and people start shorting it and it obstinately refuses then more and more people short it and then finally the people behind it go... Oh wow we are really sorta hanging out here in the wind. Maybe we better let this market crater a bit. You know with these wonderfully responsive and reasonable markets. They are sure to drop in slow cooperative ways. Given how the market is so prone to reponding to concensus.
Apocalypic plunge is all this market has in it.
Someone remind me why we are even watching the market. We know it is a farce being manipulated by central banks, and they have their own private agenda and will alter the market to reflect such. So what are we waiting for exactly and why are we watching the markets? It's like watching a whole mass of people being slaughtered and not doing anything about it. You can stare as long as you want, but the criminality will continue unless you as an individual step up. It seems like these blogs are the same way. "Wow another day of government manipulation and bullshit. What a surprise." Are we looking for some sign that will indicate impending doom? I'm confused.
Well you can't just go off all willy nilly on something like this. First you gotta hang it a little bit. Cage it in with sense and reason. When you're sure things are adding up just the right way. Then you can take whatever actions you see fit.
I kind of think it's an exercise in futility myself. Has some therapeutic value, like whistling past a graveyard. How do you fight the Wall St/ Paid Government Combine anyway? Sad fact is these big bullies have taken the country away from us. We have no political power; We have no money power. The big bullies say," You'll take what we dish out & like it SONNY."
Gold and Silver = money power.
I am Chumbawamba.
An exercise in futility?
Don't you have a portfolio?
...If you don't, I strongly suggest you...
start one ;)
Wouldn't touch this market with a ten foot pole. Strictly in cash & equivalents. Just closed out my money market to celebrate the end of insurance on the 19th.
"Are we looking for some sign that will indicate impending doom?"
Ummmm, the signs are everywhere, it just so happens 90% of the American Population is illiterate...50% of the other 10% just don't care, and the rest have already positioned themselves....
SPY gap @ 107.62-109.68 from last Oct. Getting closer.
The battle between bulls and bears is more clearly summarized as the battle between clueless sheep and entrenched corporate pirates (the bulls) and those of us who give a damn (the bears/realists).
Those of us who live within our means and don't steal from each other are just sickened by the way in which this 'rally' has been formed. It is based on open theft of the American people to favor Obama's political and corporate connections with graft and loot.
The clueless people that buy into this rally B.S. could certainly end up winning for now as money is printed out of thin air and the future of this country is systematically and recklessly plundered for the gains of those politically connected to Obama, which includes Wall street and BIG HEALTHCARE and the Bankers and the Unions and of course the media which is owned by the aforementioned.
Sure the sheep want the rally to continue just like they wanted 'change' when they scurried to the voting booth to get Boy Corporate Shill.
The end result of course will most likely be the total collapse of our country, not from the actual fundamental economic problems but the broad daylight Looting, Raping and Pillaging that has followed as some perverted and sick 'Change'.
Naturally those of us with a brain that do not go along with the rape of America by special interests are tarred and feathered as somehow wishing for this collapse that the politicians, not us, are likely to cause.
... Ditto!
Wait a minute. What does BIG HEALTHCARE have to gain from Obama & co. The big insurance companies stand to lose their cash cow. Now they can charge anything they want on whatever terms they want. Of course playing the devil's advocate; If the big insurers get 'reform' the way they define it all the stops would be pulled out & they would have a third of the economy instead of a sixth.
Beautiful use of the word sain, first I thought spelling mistake, but Sain = a pink flowered plant from Asia. Semantics, I know but very, well done.
I was thinking it was a refrence to Johnny Sain, as in "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain".
Anonymous 66689. You aren't allowing for any unknowns. In a linear fashion my thinking very much in agreement with your beliefs. However, I also recognize that nothing is clear. We are literally one, and only one, mishandled event away from obliterating the status quo on many levels. Take your pick as to what those unknown news shapers might be. Swine flu, Iran, Dollar, Commercial, Katrina II... could be any of them. It astounds me that people like Bernanke and Dodd want to stay in the limelight. Best case scenario is not very good, and the worst is apocalyptic. My logical mind sees your point, but I'm feeling a quiet too quiet on the sociopolitical front... Somethings going to give and blur that straight line, it may sound stupid but I can feel it.
I've been "feeling" it too for the last few months or so too. Doesn't mean the market won't go up another 100 on the S&P given all the Fed intervention/money printing, but something's going to give in the next 6 months. When it's all said and done, I believe that our society will be forever changed. And I'm not saying this as a disgruntled, unemployed worker. I am a small business owner and a member of the vanishing middle class and I have never seen such strain talking to customers and vendors.
My take is that the government is helping the banks fleece the bears with this rally as just one of several mechanisms to boost bank profitability. Along with zero percent interest, it all funnels billions to the banksters without having to go through Congress again.
My question is what do think will happen if there is a dollar collapse. Will the market soar or crash? I believe that it would crash as a panic would ensue and foreigners would get the hell out. A lot of people will need to cash out just to put gas in their car. On the other hand, the MSM will spin it as rising asset prices, rising sales and profits in the future thanks to massive inflation. I'm not sure what to think anymore
msorense I don't think the government will sit idly by and watch the demise of the country. I would expect some preemptive actions before letting that happen. i.e.. defaulting on debt, war.
Should any of us be surprised by this. We are witnessing a fractional reserve monetary system that has run its course. Its a mathematic certainty.
The VIX +2.55% ahead of the weekend on a flat tape is a signal of a downside move to come in my opinion.
Dont read too much into this after the VIX hit a 22 handle the previous session
The economy as a hole is signalling the end of an error. We are an Obama nation where 1 dollar buys 25 cents worth of oil and gold as compared to earlier this decade. Talk about a two bit horror.
Again, anyone who thinks Obama has anything to do with any of this has gravely missed the boat. Obama is a scarecrow, a figure head, a puppet king, however you want to invision him, he is little more than an image for you to focus on, so that you may pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
"Give me control of a nation's money
and I care not who makes the laws."
-Mayer Amschel Rothschild
This has been going on for much longer than you might imagine.
I sure hope so. Otherwise I have no idea what Im talking about when it comes to economics.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/brochert/2009/0824.html
it's all about fractals
On your eurjpy chart swap the MAs for an 80/160/320 MA chain and you'll see the game.
Great posts and responses, fascinating. I believe the political lanscape degrades badly soon, Tylers earlier article wtih the China bank prez comments that the collapse is only starting, and the worsening reality of Main St leads me to believe we'll gradualy decline from here.
The very low volume markerwide and Tylers article on the S&P500 correlation with FED monetizing, and now Geithners 'draw down' comments convince me to look in the downward direction. How can markets keep going up when the money that has floated them is now being drawn back?
Main St reality is 1929, Wall St imagines its partying like its 1999 but I think its short lived.
No more problems at the FHA - that's for sure. Just keep the wheels spinning from left hand to the right hand:
http://debtsofanation.blogspot.com/2009/09/debts-of-spenders-fha-my-deat...
I read that article in the WSJ, it was off-base. the banks don't take the credit risk on the Ginnie's, the government does.
The article does bring up a good point though - Fannie/Freddie MBS has a haircut because they do not offer full faith and credit (I would argue the haircut should be greater than 20% - is the govt going to stand behind them when their losses triple?).
But yet Bernanke can buy them and claim they are gov't guaranteed?
THE US GOVERNMENT LED BY SOME OF THE THE MOST DESPICABLE AND CORRUPT PEOPLE IN THE WORLD, ARE DESTROYING THEIR OWN PEOPLE, AND AT THE SAME TIME, LETTING OTHER COUNTRIES DRAWN INTO AN INFERNO. THE ENTIRE WORLD IS SUFFERING BY THE ACTIONS OF THE US OLIGARCHS.
THE RUSSIAN, CHINESE AND JAPANESE GOVERNMENTS ARE PUSSIES. THEY EITHER HAVE BALLS OR WERE ALREADY BOUGHT OUT WITH US TAX PAYERS MONEY: A FEW MILLION DOLLARS IN A SWISS ACCOUNT FOR PUTIN AND THE REST...
SO WHILE THE US GOVERNMENT PRINTS ITS WAY OUT THIS DEPRESSION, OTHER COUNTRIES ARE GETTING **CKED.
America and the world are in a crisis of leadership because of the incestuous use of power in Washington DC and New York City.
Last night’s 57-40 Senate roll call vote on the confirmation of Cass Sunstein to be Administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, Office of Management and Budget aka “Regulatory Czar,” is the last straw.
This is a man who believes, and I quote: “If a [health care] program would prevent fifty deaths of people who are twenty, should it be treated the same way as a program that would prevent fifty deaths of people who are seventy? Other things being equal, a program that protects young people seems far better than the one that protects old people because it delivers greater benefits.” In a 2007 speech at Harvard, Sunstein called for banning hunting in the U.S.
In his 2001 book, Republic.com, Sunstein argued that the Internet may weaken democracy because it allows citizens to isolate themselves within groups that share their own views and experiences, and thus cut themselves off from any information that might challenge their beliefs, a phenomenon known as cyberbalkanization. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cass_Sunstein)
This reminds one of Josef Stalin’s successful techniques for preventing a coup against his leadership. His lieutenants were forbidden from any private meeting with each other…on penalty of death…unless he was present.
Such a philosophy, now held by other officials in the Obama Administration, is not the philosophy of American culture. It follows the path of the genocidal killer Pol Pot, of Dr. Josef Mengele aka "the Angel of Death," and of Stalin, the murderous dictator of the Soviet Union.
American was founded on the principles of the worth of the individual and the proposition that each citizen is important, not as “Animal Farm” would have suggested, that some citizens are more equal than others. Once this slippery slope begins, it quickly passes through State sterlization, infanticide and finally firing squads. Eventually, the whole nation is transformed into a death factory a la the Solovetski Islands. Sunstein’s appointment comes along just as we’ve learned about the recommendations of Health Policy Czar Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel whose major influence is now apparent on the health care legislation being adopted in Congress. Obviously, Dr. Emanuel’s viewpoints on withholding medical care to the young and old and those unfit for service is carried straight to the committee floors by his brother, Rahm, Obama’s Chief of Staff.
Already, opposition to Cass Sunstein has been categorized as anti-Semitic.
The charge of anti-Semitism is a red herring and it’s time for people to be allowed to point out factual representations of the Jewish people in governmental positions because to the casual observer it almost looks as if many are selected because they are Jewish. At a time when investment banking houses with generally Jewish principals are a dominant factor in the financial sector, with Jewish influence being exerted on domestic and foreign policies of the United States and with overwhelmingly Jewish influence in Hollywood and the MSM, while at the same time powerful lobbying entities such as AIPAC and others have tremendous influence on the Congress, it’s of major import to point out the makeup of the president’s administration as it relates to Jewish prominence in this oligarchy.
Jews hold the majority of influential positions in the Obama Administration. If these officials were predominantly Muslins, or Hindus, or Catholics, this would be a national issue. Case in point, how many were upset that Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Kennedy, Scalia, and Sotomayer are Catholics on the U.S. Supreme Court, while Catholics represent only 23 percent of the U.S. population? But there was no cry of anti-Catholicism. Yet the Jewish population of the U.S. is estimated at only 2.2 percent.
The influence of America’s top financial firm, Goldman Sachs also has widened its influence over the White House when, as the NY Times reported in “Goldman Executive Named as Obama Adviser,” Robert Hormats, a vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International, was named by Obama to a top economic position at the State Department. Hormats is now under secretary of state for economic, energy and agricultural affairs. In recognition, Hillary Rodham Clinton, the secretary of state, said in a speech …that she “hoped to make economic policy and trade a larger part of United States diplomacy.”
Among other Jewish officials with heavy influence in the Obama Adminisration and America are: John Podesta (Soros), coordinator of President-elect Barack Obama's transition team; Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s Chief of Staff; Ron Klain, Biden's Chief of Staff; Janet Napolitano, Secretary of Homeland Security; Mary Schapiro, SEC chief; Timothy Geithner, Secretary of the Treasury; Gary Gensler, head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission; David Axelrod, Senior Advisor to the President; Peter Orszag, Director of the Office of Management and Budget; Lawrence Summers, Director of the White House National Economic Council, i.e.,chief economic adviser; Christina Romer, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers; Dennis Ross, director of Obama’s Middle East policy; Dan Shapiro Senior Policy Adviser and Jewish Outreach Coordinator who was Obama’s campaign advisor on Middle East policy; Paul Volcker, special economic adviser to the President; Elena Kagan, Solicitor General; Jeremy C. Stein, whose research has focused on subjects such as behavioral finance and stock market efficiency, joining Summers; Jeffrey B Liebman—helping to oversee the policies and management of federal agencies as executive associate director of the president’s Office of Management and Budget; Sheila Bair, FDIC chairman; Karen Mills, administrator, Small Business Administration; Benjamin Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve System; Mrs. Joseph Biden, wife of the Vice President of the United States; Douglas Shulman, Internal Revenue Service Commissioner.
Jared Bernstein is Chief Economist and Economic Policy Adviser to the Vice President; Sally Katzen, major legal adviser to Obama-Biden and chosen to play a role in the Obama Administration; Eric Lander and Harold E. Varmus - Co-Chairs of the President’s Council of Advisers on Science/Technology; Jacob Lew and James Steinberg - Deputy Secretaries of State second in rank only to Hillary Clinton in foreign policy matters; Penny Pritzker - Obama’s National Finance Chair during the election cycle and now an economic advisor; and Mona Sutphen - Deputy White House Chief of Staff; H. David Kotz, Securities and Exchange Commission Inspector; Alan Blinder, Obama Economic Advisor; Puneet Talwar, NSC Middle East Desk; Richard Holbrooke, Afghan-Pakistan Envoy; Elena Kagen, Solicitor General; Steven Rattner, Treasury Advisor-Auto Sector; Jared Bernstein, Chief Economics Policy Adviser to VP Biden; Julius Genachowski, FCC Chairman; Margaret Ann Hamburg, Commissioner, Food and Drug Agency; Joshua M. Sharfstein, Deputy FDA Administrator…
And then there’s the list of the czars…and the ambassadors...
Well perhaps they're just smarter!
All I know is that C hit 1 billion shares a few days ago. Today, C hits only 400 milliong shares. It looks like someone turn off the volume maker.
Uhhh, the market is up 50% since March. The bears have been completely wrong, and continue to be completely wrong. There really is no debate between the bears and bulls.
When you are engaging in a debate with someone who has been consistently wrong every single time for the past 6 months, is this even a debate anymore? It's not a debate, it's a humiliation.
The bottom line is that the economy has recovered, and the market is up tremendously, and all economic indicators have been positive. The only one that has gotten worse is unemployment, but we know that lags by several months, and in fact in 1982 unemployment hit > 10% and the markets still went up. This is the same case.
So yes, that "something" has already happened but what that was is that all the bears have lost all their money. I'm one of those bears that has been consistently wrong since March.
Patience, grasshopper. WHEN, not if, this perfect shitstorm hits, by comparison the Great Depression will, in retrospect, look like a tea party..........
I was reading exactly opposite messages to yours, in February/March of this year. I knew it's time to cover.
guess what I'm doing now reading messages like yours
golf clap.
my broker (good friend, smart guy) cautioned me a bit last feb and march when i went all in long on the banks. simply told him that there was no way the biggies were going to fail because of gov't support as well as the people/groups who were the owners of said banks. rode fas nicely up. i'm very short now, but a light position in faz for the same reason.
I may have to start getting my stock tips from you...
Bears lost out because capitalism exists only in name.
"The bears have been completely wrong, and continue to be completely wrong."
Read it and weep: http://evilspeculator.com/?p=5029
I posted this at the very bottom on March 8th btw - predicted Dow to get close to 10,000 by late summer. It's late summer and where are we? Exactly.
We Elliotticians knew what was coming and I also know what you have coming. A good ass whopping that is - let's compare notes next March.
I've been weeping since March, I'm pretty numb by now. For the record, I'm not bullish at all, I have 45 put contracts on the SPY that I've been accumulating since Sept 1, and I've lost about 45%.
Any recommendations on any good Elliott wave books? It sounds like hocus pocus to me, but at this point I'm willing to try anything. I think Paul Tudor Jones believes in Elliott wave, doesn't he?
ZHr's
Mole (evilspeculator) like Knight are two that are worth paying some attention to and if you trade at all worth visiting regularly - I also like Carl Futia. -(all of their blogs have significant followings) I do agree with anonymous above who points out event related issues as potential game changers.
thanks molecool....i follow the elliotticians as well.....do you have P2 over and if not, your call on that? thanks
I'm new to EW, but this guy has great analysis I think...
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
I feel P2 isn't over yet since bear patterns are still failing (IMO due to the light volume). I suspect you will know P3 has begun when bull patterns start failing seemingly for no rhyme or reason (other than perhaps volume, and i dunno.... fundamentals?!?)
Monetization. It makes being right wrong and being wrong right. But right or wrong it ends.
If you bought a gold coin and then went to an assayer and found that it was actually a lead slug with gold coating, you'd be right to hunt down the seller and exact righteous vengence.
Yet that is what monetization, fiat currency, and central bankers do.
Tell the man on the street that his earnings aren't really his, but can be gamed and made strong/weak by the whims of powerful men who can not a whit for his welfare.
When the average wage earner is impoverish and comes to understand the works of darkness of the international banking syndicate, they are right to want 7 times vengeance.
Woe to the man affiliated in that day.
The bulls are like a Thanksgiving Turkey in October, fat and happy. Someone just keeps putting corn in front of 'em and they keep eating it...
Of course we all know what happens to turkeys at Thanksgiving; Served up basted to a golden brown in their own sauce.
WHAT?!?!?!?!!? OMG I JUST VOMITTED IN MY UNDERPANTS.
Ben Bernanke has been wrong for four years every step of the way! Tim Geithner has been wrong consistently for 15 years!
If we have "recovered" why has the government not withdrawn it's aid?
You nitwit.
You're wearing them wrong. I know this because what you said shows your head isn't in your fundament, where puking in your knickers is easy.
Hmm....It's getting late. Any word on Corus hitting the pavement yet ??
Sheila wouldn't let them hang on the ledge another week.
Would she ?? Would she ??
MB Fincancial to take over Corus Bank
the new market is a casino -
real recovery won't begin until money is deployed on the streets -
look for the government to embrace taxation per trade or per share as a way to lower volatility by driving sideline dollars long, or out of the market entirely, causing folks to seek returns by doing something productive -
how's that for a run on?
"a steep yield curve guarantying banks solid income"
What a joke. They've guaranteed solid bonuses. If there was no government guarantee of their debt and/or they had to take the junk they dumped on the Fed back onto their balance sheets they'd all be out of business!
Regrettably, the unorthodox (guarantying) and incorrect (sain) spelling makes it impossible to read further what may ultimately have been an insightful post.
I cannot see how anyone can take a position as to bear or bull, given the lying and stealing that has been going on the last 11 months in the financial world- the whole world.
Are we so lost that this is all there is to argue about? If this type of stuff keeps being posted over and over again, I am going to start thinking my girlfried just may be a virgin.
The Coming Consequences of Banking Fraud
Cheers satan.
Good analysis of where we are today. All the things you spoke of are baked into the markets cake. To meaningfully change things there has to be something new thrown into the mix. That could be anything. It could be the flu that kills consumption by 10% for a month or two. It could be Iran, there are deadlines coming up on this story. It could be yet another mega derivative blow up story. It could be a hurricane, or a big bank failure or bomb going off someplace.
I don't think it will be any of those things that rattle the markets. It might just be all of those angry people around. I wrote something this week and got some surprising comments. People aren't just angry, they are armed too.
I think it'll be the US Dollar this time.
A crash in the coming days is pobable.
Remember the second stimulus package is in the pipepline.
They would need argument to justify it.
Finally famous the green shots have been annonced but you cannot hide the thruth for ever.
According to me , another big bank could failed to create the same crisis we met+the psychological impact of the flue han1.
during the chaos the second stimulus plan will not be a big deal.The FEAR is the best to force people to accept stupid solution.
remember the climate we faced last year.......Ideal to push the 1st stimulus pacakage.Vote for it or it will be the end of the world.
French guy
Something is definitely wrong in this country. Basic economic theory is not being observed or followed. Seems anything that can happen is explained away by some new founded theory. Economic fundementals are being totally ignored and the banks and investment houses are back to the same old practices that got them into the bad shape they are really in. Nothing has been done to regulate or correct the underlying problems. Books are still being rigged and mortgages and other credit defaults are continuing to skyrocket. A bull market based on earnings? What nonsense! Company revenues are down or at best flat and the only quarterly profits occured were due to shady accounting practices and cutbacks in employees and expenses. People and businesses are not spending and greatly drawing down any inventories. Look at the petro markets, all speculation and no basis in reality, no basis on supply versus demand. Everyone must be ready for the day of reconing that is coming near and the fallout will make 1929 and last October look like strolls in the park.
Capitalist Forever!
There is the old time theory of the slow motion crash. It says all the controls that can be exerted will not prevent another great crash but can only slow it down.
A crash in the coming days is pobable.
Remember the second stimulus package is in the pipepline.
They would need argument to justify it.
Finally famous the green shots have been annonced but you cannot hide the thruth for ever.
According to me , another big bank could failed to create the same crisis we met+the psychological impact of the flue han1.
during the chaos the second stimulus plan will not be a big deal.The FEAR is the best to force people to accept stupid solution.
remember the climate we faced last year.......Ideal to push the 1st stimulus pacakage.Vote for it or it will be the end of the world.
French guy
We're always getting closer.
Don't worry though it's all good at CNBS...
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10597575/3/fast-money-recap-oils-impact.html
A few tidbits for you if you don't feel like clicking:
"Joe Terranova said on CNBC's "Fast Money" TV show said aggressive selling in oil brought down the trading session today and marred what was a "great week."...
umm, wow, how f-ing insightful, thanks Joe. Umm, couldn't possibly be anything fundamental, right?
"Greg Troccoli said $75 appears to be a resistance level for oil. Pete Najarian said the market can hold up even if oil slips below $70. Terranova opined that the market will head down if oil drops to $60."...
$75 resistance, umm what was the clue? The "aggressive selling? Pete, oh, of course the market will keep going higher...you're not out of red bull yet are you? And Joe, you know you don't believe...you know the market will NOT go down.
"Melissa Lee, the moderator of the show, shifted the discussion to General Electric(GE Quote), which has been steadily moving higher toward the $15 level. Seymour said the company is starting to show signs of earnings normalization...
umm, normal in whose world exactly? The world where we make up our own numbers?
Troccoli said GE has to be "part of your portfolio" because of its balance sheet and diversified businesses...
ok, I have to admit I don't think that even needs a comment.
You have a talent for recaps I think :-)
"umm, wow, how f-ing insightful, thanks Joe."
LOL! Classic +1001!!!
What I finally realized is that fast money is patterened after sports center, and they are all trying to make stocks sound like a 4th and 3 play by play down to the "woosh" sound fx. And the afternoon "halftime" report, FTW!?! It's not a fucking game of Handegg.
http://pix.motivatedphotos.com/2009/2/2/633692057194761860-handegg.jpg
Ummm, now, who was that dudette again who kept on chirpin' and chirpin' and chirpin' that we have absolutely decoupled from the rest of the world, and if U.S sneezes the rest of the world, especially China, won't shart their pants. Yes, that was Seymour. That prediction worked out really well didn't it, you @##%**&^%%$$%%^$&&%^$^$. And, then, they call themselves traders. In my opinion, that show had some ooommph while Ratigan was there. Since then it has been a show full of Proctologus Stuffitinitae.
Wanna see civil unrest triggered by a political event? How about Obama "rhaming" through a healthcare bill with the reconciliation process. The town halls this summer showed how things are at the boiling point. Such an event could provide the nitroglicerin for all hell to break loose.
I'd like to "Rham" something through Obama...
...wait a minute...
That didn't sound gay did it?
Depends.
If you were speaking about a hate fuck, then no.
We have to do something. The health care we get may be YOURS. If nothing is done in five or so years NOBODY BUT THE ULTRA RICH will have access to a doctor. Even now hospitals are being bankrupted by their emergency rooms or having to shut them down. I don't think anything will be rammed thru; Compromise is the American Way.
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What possibly makes you think QE is going to end? Will never happen. It will take the Fed a decade to unwind this mess. MBS backing will probably continue on for that long...they have no choice.
Jedwards, you have puts which you've built for a week and you're complaining about being down?
You don't need elliot wave, you need to learn risk management and patience. Always remember, that you can be right, but at the wrong time. 'The market can remain irrational longer than you or I can remain solvent'.