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Are You Prepared For Another 2008? Pt 1
The
Financial World has entered a period that is strikingly similar to that of
2008, at least regarding three key issues. They are:
1) The
Oil/ USD correlation (as noted recently on ZeroHedge)
2) Bearish
bets against the US Dollar
3) “In
the Know” investors getting out of the market
Regarding
#1, ZeroHedge performed some excellent analysis revealing that the inverse
correlation between Oil and stocks hit -0.5 during late 2007/ early 2008, right
before the market topped and began its horrifying descent.
The
psychology of Oil vs. Stocks is a strange phenomenon. Initially, a rally in Oil
prices is believed to be positive for stocks as it is considered to indicate
economic growth (increased demand for energy).
However,
once the price of Oil hits a particular level it becomes economically
destructive. Operating costs
explode for corporations destroying profit margins and consumers, hurt at the
gas pump, cut back on spending. You can see this dynamic in the Dow Jones
Transportation index’s performance in 2008:
From January
to July 2008, the price of Oil rose from $100 per barrel to $150 per barrel.
The Transportation index, which is largely comprised of companies heavily
dependent on Oil for fuel, saw this movement as positive up until early June
when Oil got around $130 per barrel at which point the Transportation index
began to crater.
I also wish
to note that the Transports actually peaked a full month before Oil, revealing
that the market saw $130+ Oil as no longer an economic positive though Oil
eventually went on to hit $150.
Thus it’s
clear that there is a “tipping” point for Oil prices at which the market begins
to note that higher Oil means evaporating corporate profits NOT economic
growth. That “tipping point” was revealed by the Dow Transportation breaking
down while Oil continued to climb higher in 2008.
And we’re
currently seeing a similar pattern play out today:
As you can
see, the Transportation index (blue) has recently begun to collapse while Oil
(black) has spiked higher fueled by the unrest in Libya and the Middle East in
general. This situation needs to be monitored closely as it might be predicting
another market collapse similar to that of 2008. The inverse ratio between Oil
and the S&P 500 has hit an all time high of -0.57. It was at just -.5 in
2008 when the 2008 disaster began in earnest (props to ZeroHedge for finding
this first).
If you’re
getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps
to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you
download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to
come.
I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival
Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio
protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance
on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn
of 2008).
Again, this
is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, go to http://www.gainspainscapital.com
and click on FREE REPORTS.
More to come…
Graham
Summers
PS. We ALSO
publish a FREE Special Report on Inflation detailing three investments that
have all already SOARED as a result of the Fed’s monetary policy.
You can
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There are a huge number of statistical correlations one can draw. What one wonders are if these are like 2008.
There are also massive differences between 2008 and now. In particular Ben didn't have the printing presses operating at full speed ahead then.
sorry guys, wasn't me, the save button stuck, FYI Tyler
Barry will save us!! Barry, Barry , Barry he speaks tonite, owwww immaculated one!
1
If the Rossi/Focardi Energy Catalyser is real.Will its introduction in October be in time to meaningfully drive down the oil price and prevent a collapse? I'm just wondering what the realisation of the existence of such a technology will do.Governments will be clamouring for it and I can see it replacing a meaningful percentage of oil use in five years but what will its immediate effect be?
Barry will save us!! Barry, Barry , Barry he speaks tonite, owwww immaculated one!
Barry will save us!! Barry, Barry , Barry he speaks tonite, owwww immaculated one!
Barry will save us!! Barry, Barry , Barry he speaks tonite, owwww immaculated one!
Or geo-politcal/political economic strife....
"Initially, a rally in Oil prices is believed to be positive for stocks as it is considered to indicate economic growth "
yes, always a fucktard will conflate the effects of monetary inflation with economic growth...
Who are these "in the know" investors? Qadhafi? Mortimer Snerd? Barry Bonds?
I presume the "in the know" investors are the insiders, whom are quietly selling off while the sheeple are fed bullish pipedreams.
Anyone still in paper needs to withdraw head from ass and get in to physical PMs. This bitch is sinking.
I'm cashing in all retirement funds and buying physical PM's. Fuck the US Markets. Fuck Buffet, Soros, Cramer, Paulson, and the rest of the market experts. One thing I've learned (the hard way) do the opposite of what they say because that's what they're doing. How else are they gonna suck funds out of the market?
Silver, Guns and bullets!
Another 2008 would portend a rather dramatic suckout in PM prices, ie; perhaps the last great buying opportunity, no?
Or is it different this time around - will people flee the dollar and flood into PM's?
Tough one to call. I posed the same question in a post on another thread yesterday. But after some more thought, I think it may turn out like this.
There will be a strong drop in PM prices initially, as people flock to the "safe haven" of T-bills they used in 2008, in a knee-jerk reaction. But that occurred within the context of a financial system that was supposedly "saved" by TARP and stimulus, etc. Once it becomes clear that the world financial and commercial systems themselves have been severely damaged this time, the flight will be to the only proven historic store of value: PMs. The demand will be unprecedented, and PMs at that point will go not just parabolic, but logarithmic.
The trick will be to time the point at which things turn. It may not take that long - days, perhaps hours. If you can buy low after the initial drop, the ride up will be one for the ages.
investors are the insiders, whom are quietly selling off
Yes, in record numbers for the last few months
Well, it’s federal layoff day, and I’m in another ghost town, with people hiding in homes they are not making payments on, or driving down to Wal-Mart in big trucks they are not making payments on, to buy Ipads with the Fed’s amazing infinite credit machine that is destroying everything in its path, hunting …
Enterprise Architecture, Empire Economics, & Global Revolution
An independent economy is the aggregate function of individual effective decisions. An empire, the supply-side counterweight to the portfolio, seeks to replace natural demand with artificial demand, to rest replication control, with the intent of holding children hostage to its efficient replication. When the intersection exceeds equilibrium, the consumption virus takes off exponentially until threshold, resulting in cancer across the tracks. Empires reward efficiency (economic activity) and penalize effectiveness (economic profit). That’s what they do. They are also relatively counter-intuitive.
Nothing is as simple or complex as it sounds. Nothing is free. Evolution has made an incredible investment in you specifically; reward it by building onto the gate system, to grow the circuit. Free riders are the temporary counterweight in any system; employ accordingly, in cascading tracks.
The unknown door is always labeled heads I win, tails you lose, which is an invitation to cooperation or competition, depending upon perspective. Build the counter-balance to form the looking glass and the necessary wave thrust will present itself. Balance the fulcrum to provide the opposite direction and the empire will do the rest. Leverage, leverage, leverage, up and down, and across each dimension to provide the necessary energy of catalysis; that’s transformation.
You are given a straight-line dragster, seated with billions of want-a-be drivers, watching the video stream in a shoe store. The starting line is a dead stop at the base of the largest economic mountain in History, which has no established roadway, and the fuel at your back is the largest wave of defaults in History, which the Fed is “engineering” across the global economy. Backlash is a threat or an opportunity, depending upon perspective.
Empires present false threats to their ordained destiny (divine providence) as SOP. Filter to identify a desirable abutment (exit), add delay devices on the empire side of the switch as necessary to load the spring with each revolution, build a multiplexing (parallel) bridge system to the unknown, and repeat. You climb Mt Everest for the adventure; the view is icing on the cake. Sometimes, the mountain is a volcano.
You are not free; you are an investment and return is expected. Value yourself accordingly.
So, as we have seen all the lies of empire History pop off the stack, we learn that supply-side welfare begins at the top, driving corporate nexus accounting profits, to incorporate governments, companies, unions, churches, and non-profits across the system, incrementally building a middle-class delay mechanism to prevent backlash as required, all depending entirely upon unsustainable natural resource exploitation.
The artificial majority hiding behind artificial borders gets paid off in ponzi promises to enslave larger and larger sub-populations, farther and farther from the empire epicenter. Noriega, Mubarak, Gadhafi, and the rest are just disposable dictators acting as middlemen for a fee.
Both the US and the USSR were bankrupt back in the 70s; the US simply had many more delay mechanisms in its part of the fountain. A tiny minority, which is actually capable of creating economic profit, pumps the wealth up from the bottom, employing quantum physics. They do so because the backlash serves as the thrust to launch a better system into the next orbit.
The individual’s stack of lies, the voices in our heads, that justify our participatory actions, works accordingly. The individual accepts false fear as presented by the empire and balances the resulting insecurity with a false ego, which is rewarded by the propaganda education system, beginning with the false parents of civil marriage, as the onramp to temporary property credit in the empire’s monetary expansion gate system. Over time, natural individual fulcrum balances are completely replaced by social artifices and the empire implodes.
You will never learn anything from a book, except all the “mistakes” that created the black holes of History beckoning you to enter. Along with real life experience, you can identify gaps between current “realities” and what is necessary to increase amperage to the enterprise system.
Architects set gaps t adjust power to meet demand, so they cannot work directly for any organization within the enterprise system. Some architects are the gap. Attempting to jump this lock and key system is counter-productive.
To learn, give everything away, go to an unknown town at random, build yourself up to a stable economic position, and repeat as necessary to penetrate the layers. The most difficult part of the job is ramping up a system from a dead stop without frying the devices going up and around the first curve.
Any moron can take a system at full momentum, place it on a downhill straightaway, and remove the resulting unused devices to simulate performance. The point of the practice is to appreciate all the devices installed and compare the resulting knowledge to your development ideas.
The great illusion lies in the timing of unique solutions, which requires patience, which requires humility. Sometimes, you merge with the cattle, sometimes you don’t. Adjust ego response accordingly. Each dc track runs on a specific frequency. AC divides all frequency.
They just can’t help themselves; they must take the short cut. It’s how their mind is wired from birth and they can no longer offer resistance. You could give them the blueprint for a fusion/fission reactor and all they would do is blow themselves and you up. Now, who do you think the enterprise architects want to work for at this point, people that are going to treat workers as disposable commodities?
Like spoiled children, the proprietors offer to appreciate the last gift when they get the next gift. Life is a gift from God, but they want to see another miracle before acceptance in their proffered contract negotiation. That’s supply-side economics. Faith in numbers doesn’t work. The greater the fear, the greater the love required. That’s God, and quantum physics.
(didn't like that?)
here is page two of the USDEbt Clock web site showing PMs...nice page:
http://www.usdebtclock.org/gold-precious-metals.html
meh