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Arms (TRIN) Index At Most Extreme Deviation Since 1956
Yet another distortion in this Fed-controlled market has been captured by SentimentTrader who has noticed that the Arms (TRIN) index is at its most extreme deviation since 1956. As a reminder the Arms index is an indicator of market breadth which essentially tracks lemming like momentum-chasing behavior with respect to volume. Sentiment Trader's commentary: "While influenced by some of the high-volume, low-priced stocks such as Citigroup, the Arms Index is showing an abnormal level of Up Volume versus Up Issues. The chart we show on the site uses bands around a six-month average to define extremes, and right now the 10-day average is more than 35% away from that average. With the S&P at a 52-week high, this is the most-extreme deviation in the Arms Index since 1956." For those who foolishly believe that technical indicators "indicate" anything anymore in a market in which there is just one player left, may want to be concerned - all the other times such an extreme deviation has occurred, any short-term gains were erased during the months ahead. Those dates were 4/5/43, 2/5/45, 6/20/45, 5/14/48, 4/19/50 and 3/14/56.
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We'll reach DOW 14,000 in three months, at this rate. Just like the crisis never happened. LOL!
If they can print enought the DOW can go up to 24,000 in three months.
if The Fed can get the Dow to 24,000, then we will become the World's First 'Super-Duper Power'. U-S-A! U-S-A!
crisis? what crisis? I've been napping for 10 years and my portfolio is gone!?!
did we have a crisis? Wait...a 'decreasing bonus pool' crisis....i get it
I would like to make sure I am getting the point here, abnormal Up Vol vs. Up Issues means the "advance" in the SP500 is only in a few issues and not a broad advance, yes?
As in fragile.
But, of course, if SP500 is plotted vs. gold the comedy is apparent.
You can see it in most one day charts of the major futures indexes. Explosion to the upside for a few minutes, than HFT defense of the new territory for the rest of the day as it goes nowhere.
The BLACKHAWK owns this market. It's written all over the tape.
Nothing a few strokes of the keyboard couldnt handle. Ctrl+Alt+TRIN+ DEL. Problem solved. Rally on
I just checked the volume on SPY, the most favorite market manipulation tool, and it is at about half of what it is on such mornings like this, engineered premarket gap. This belies what Art Cashin just said: 1. the employment report was not as good as the market's reaction 2. the Santa rally [ug] has come earlier and earlier [meaning, uh hum, it has already occurred].
As usual, this fact about today's premarket nonsense, zero SPY volume lurch has no immediate bearing on things when even the currency of continents can be entirely repriced in minutes. However, and since this note about the historic distortion in TRIN popped up exactly as I was sipping my coffee and looking at SPY BS...in the wake of BLS BS, I thought to note it.
This morning, it is all literally levitating on thin air...
Well said. I completely agree.
You may find this article of interest. Although the rise of behavioral economics is no secret to the readers of ZH it is nice to get a refresher every now and again.
In short, things don't make sense anymore because the markets are run by computers who feast on (psychologically front-run) the biases of retail investors (and MMs). Unless you think in 26-level Bayesian analytics then you are lost along with the rest of us when trying to make sense of what is going on in the markets. In the binary world, today's employment report was better than Art Cashin's 'flawed' cognitive analysis.
This is why people should step aside an just let the computers blow each other up...logic vs. logic may result in a perfectly 'logical' crash (again).
http://www.fundstrategy.co.uk/markets/global/
And there you go. Just look at how the SPY acted seconds after opening. And yet somehow we were all supposed to be feeling all happy, induced by the futures, tears of joy at how great the weekly BLS stats were...until...the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street heard the opening bell.
I think it is important just now to continue to say exactly what it is. I think it is important just now to continue to say that we, as a nation, cannot heal from this economic bust until these banks are cleaned out of their criminal leadership. Capital cannot form, will not form, within this corrupt system, which is exactly why The Bernank is printing money and pumping into banks.
Where is E. Holder? Anyone....Bueller....Bueller...
Barney Fife would have made a better USAG than Holder.
Hmmmmm. There must be a problem with the SPY "creation units" machine. The SPY is going down...even though the criminal syndicate Wall Street banks are going up. Someone should see if the machine just came unplugged or somethiing.
Buy the dip with a 1% stop loss. For even better odds, do this right after it starts back up.
We were just one red candle away from a sell signal in the major indexes yesterday. But the BLACKHAWK is all knowing, and came in with a stick save right at the open!
Thanks TD. When this market is finally forced to swallow reality it is going to be one bitter pill... It's so humorous watching new, inventive ways they spin bad data positive. I'm looking forward to watching CNBS "anchors" sit around dumbfounded just like they did in late 08 / early 09.
This market needs to get more suckers invested before it sells off - then the manipulators will be able to pass the potato. How else can average Americans continue to share in losses while not participating in any gains? This is the new America - the Haves and Have Nots
While I understand your broad point, I must say that this time is different. Despite Wall St thinking retail is going to bail them out of equity positions AGAIN, the demographics are way out of whack for it to happen. Boomers can't roll the dice like they used too... and as yields begin to rise, despite Benny, that only reinforces conservative behavior. Boomers see Social Security going bust and know they have to be a bunch of prudes at this point which means no equity bailouts this time.
I hope you are right, because I believe in the same scenario and would love to see it play out that way because it should - karma. The problem is what appears to be so clear to you, I and other zh's isn't even on the radar of the sheeple.
I'm dusting off my copy of Dow 36,000. We'll be there in about 12 months if just 25% of equities can sport P/Es like that of CRM & OPEN. Who cares if home prices are entering a double dip down and the municipal bond market is falling apart? This is just noise to the real issue of QEn2 and rescuing all TBTF institutions. Just buy the fucking dip.
As long as the base of the Ponzi pyramid is fed with fresh money, everything will continue to run like there is no problem.
Just like the ECRI, it doesn't matter. Just buy the dips.
And keep buying physical Ag and Au while it's cheap and available.
Fed likes higher equities, but not if yields continue this way. The TBTF will be happy to help them trigger artificial flight to safety, let them just lock the Dec10 gains next Friday. The positioning for 2011 is in progress...
I expect a sell off.
You just have to throw all books, videos, and common sense out the window.
This market is supported by the Fed; therefore, all else is WORTHLESS....EVERYTHING.
It has no bearing whatsoever. No correlation to reality....
"It's all about a salary and not about reality"...NWA
Yes, and this makes sense until you also examine that the Fed has now printed and spent exactly a butt load of money to hold interest rates down, specifically. Ummm, but that ain't workin' so well, is it?
well this bond dump is orchestrated to cause a pm dump. Perhaps a few more weeks of downward manipulation in bond prices and "they" will acheive their objective on 24/1100 silver/gold. Then back to program, print and buy, print and buy.
No, the bond dump is orchestrated to
get you guys into "safe" equities
while we pigmen get back into bonds.
@ orangedrink...
""It's all about a salary and not about reality"...NWA "
Quote by way of KRS-1 and BDP I do believe... sampled by NWA.
The recent nominal extreme was on about June 10th when the value was about .1 (remember what happened then?), right now we're sitting at .41. It could get more extreme before it whipsaws.
The only thought I had when reading this...fuck, clearly no crash until next year based on months listed....
Buy the f'ing dip
You must be the last bear out there. Even Bloomberg is making fun of the permabear crowd.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-06/bear-market-that-wasn-t-gores-p...
I'd recommend you keep your day job.
In a more balanced market, I would weigh posts like this a little bit more and look forward to a decent market correction, however in this day and age we have the Bernanke's QE to infinity plan that changes the game dynamics. As long as Bernanke's hasn't worn out the "0" button on his keyboard, and some country doesn't default overnight, gotta go long on any pullbacks.
Gauging economic health by watching the stock markets is like measuring the health of your car by keeping an eye on the "check-engine" light on your car's dashboard. The light goes on from time to time, it has nothing to do with the function of your car, the computer simply fires-up as a way for the auto industry to make money off of your ignorance...you get the point.
It seems that the matter is that back in 1956 the master of photocopy machines [the FED and its chairman] was not so active. Therefore in nominal terms the situation may not necessarily follow the same path.
The only significant player left is HFT (SLP included) but it acts through many hands. It decides what price it should be and uses any volume necessary to get there; infinite volume is available when it costs exactly zero per trade (or even return a rebate). Price and volume has no intrinsic meaning anymore. Up/Down and Tick indicators are still valid and clearly say this market is insane.
When I watch CNBC I think of the recent South Park episode which featured the superhero named Captain Hindsight. It was scary funny...
Everything that happens moment-to-moment in the markets is readily explained as if the reason were obvious and predictable. I would love to hear Captain Hindsight's views on these arms (TRIN) index charts...
I was taught as a child that everything in our life "happens for a reason." Now, I realize that things don't necessarily happen for any particular reason. Rather, we humans are simply VERY GOOD at assigning reasons to the things that happen in our lives.
That being said I resist the urge to assign meaning to things which have no simple (irrefutable) explanation. Sometimes, shit just happens.
Mkt has put in a double top with so watch for the drop. Once we get to 10500 on the dow it's going to pick up steam to 9k.
Daily Chart of Dow is bearish rising wedge pattern i believe.
I'd like Hairy Wanger to weigh in here. Hairy?
The second highest trin reading was at the base of the last wave up.
Just goes to show that sentiment indicators, like all oscillators, are only suggestive and take a back seat to the almighty moving average.....
Yup, and in 1956 when the INDU broke out past previous all time highs in the 30`s it didnt look back.
Just sayin..buyer beware with public domain sentiment indicators.
ST rocks!. Please notice that this time its not the level (as mentioned super high percentage of vol in just a few stocks), its the move that is striking. Last time was right before the market ran up out of the late AUG low and before that the late JUN lows.
For all the fed pumping, just look at a 10 year chart.
It's easy for the fed to start supporting this market, it's hard to stop. What is happening is the market is eating up the fed's buying power and will test it limits. The market has already used any remaing fed credibility for toilet paper. It's a catch 22 that will be playing out over the next few years, stop the pumping and it crashes game over, breakout to new highs? Hyperinflation is triggered and game over.
The Bernank is already leaped off the high dive and we are sitting around debating weather he will do a 1 and half gainer or a black swan dive and nobody has noticed all that doesn't matter because there is no water in the pool.
All of this is the warm up to the revolution and those in power are trying to find a way to hang on to something they have already lost. They just need to BS us that they still have it.
The only thing I am waiting on is when everyone wakes to the fact that the Bernank and the criminal fed is doomed to the dust bin of history. The only question is does he take all of wallstreet and the federal government with him? It sure looks that way from here.