Art Cashin Compares This Week's Action To The Days Before Black Friday

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Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:27 | 1375049 eureka
eureka's picture

From Art's mouth to God's ear.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:28 | 1375075 risk-reward
risk-reward's picture

Only one ear?

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:17 | 1375226 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

ah yes Black Friday and the crash of 87 and everyone's favorite pundit of the day Louis Rukeyser with his pals Marty Zweig and Allen Sinai

Black Friday edition of Wall Street Week in its entirety

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MyToTwag34

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9iE-bn0xBU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7_l5ijG0bg

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 15:09 | 1375439 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

WOW! His face was really green on my TV that night, don't adjust that set! Oh yeah, get that Kojak Lollypop ready, because who loves you, baby! Nice post, thanx for the mammories[sp] but wasn't Black Friday on a Monday that year?.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 15:28 | 1375482 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

Marty and Sinai were pretty prescient that night follow the links for Black Monday and beyond and you'll get to see your buddy Cavuto and even a cameo by a youthful Kudlow

http://www.youtube.com/user/crashof1987#p/u/5/4pjSlIkNxXg

and in this report a week later what in hindsight is perhaps  the birth of the current generation of  banksters as the push for deregulation goes full speed ahead (including a cameo by the Late Bill Seidman)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnAz3lCQ04k

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 22:07 | 1376444 S-hai High
S-hai High's picture

Awesome! Thanks for posting...

Rukeyser: “These computers are used by large institutional investors, whose money managers are paid huge sums of money, to make no-brain decisions that are made for them by computers. Aren’t these guys overpaid?”

 

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:30 | 1375068 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Cant happen, circuit breakers.

 

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:37 | 1375112 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

Yep

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:46 | 1375128 qussl3
qussl3's picture

The chaos will be everywhere else tho, gonna be fucking funny when stawks dont trade for a week then open down 30%.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:49 | 1375143 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, I'm guessing what we'll see next wont be some smooth comfortable patch job, but a sudden chaos event.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 15:43 | 1375609 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Jim Sinclair seems to be echoing the same thoughts...

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=1244

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:07 | 1375163 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They didn't think it could happen in 1987 either. Remember portfolio insurance? Everybody had it. There is always something that can trash the system. Flash crash, a robot blows up, who knows. They said the Titanic was unsinkable. We all know what happened there.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:09 | 1375206 mr. mirbach
mr. mirbach's picture

Even with circuit breakers a 30% one day drop is possible. 

 

http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:40 | 1375336 qussl3
qussl3's picture

You'd think they'll be able to switch all algos to buy in the half hour breaks no?

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:30 | 1375300 Ergo
Ergo's picture

and the "plunge protection" team

but who knows what game theory can do to the robots.  untested waters now.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:27 | 1375070 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

2k shaving in one week, then QE3

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:33 | 1375086 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

except it won't be called QE3.

It will be called "Cupcakes" according to Jim Rogers

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:39 | 1375118 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Great, plunge the markets down (I dont believe they can) and then 'QE3'....go for it Ben I really want to see my gold at $2,000 overnite.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:31 | 1375078 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I was only 3 months in 'da bidness' when the '87 crash happened. What a rookie hazing that was. What doesn't kill ya........

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 15:25 | 1375362 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Ha ha, my boss walks out of the men's room with his necktie thrown up around his shoulder, his eyes were all red and watery. I went inside there was vomit everywhere, what a day! Bobby P. got all my guys out, what can I say. Here check the reprints from this book, great pics of Boesky & Guiliani too: https://picasaweb.google.com/larryokarski/TheMissilesOfOctober 

PPT was born 10/20/1987 XMI Futures on CBOT saved the world! C2XMZ if I remember correctly... and Oh yeah, Larry Wachtel said on the speakerbox, "Things must be getting bad, I just PUKED!" Smithtown did too, ha ha. (This was a Monday, not a Friday).

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 21:23 | 1376364 alex_g
alex_g's picture

I was 7 months into Goldman when the '87 crash hit...surreal market action...feels nothing like it.  Rates are half, PE's are lower, this is a different issue.  Worldwide debt exposure is off the charts compared to '87, and that, this time, is the catalyst.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:30 | 1375085 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

A 2,500+ drop in the Dow? There wasn't a PPT back in 1987, but certainly possible over the course of a week, in the absence of the Fed.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:34 | 1375087 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Actually I had a drink with Art at Ben and Bensons that Friday before the crash..actually 4 drinks...I think he has a point....ha ha  I was the AXE in Genetech symbol GENE   and the stock was in a crossed market on Monday for 5 hours....it was the wild west baby.....sweet

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 22:06 | 1376370 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Was it the practice to flee Wall Street for mid-town steakhouse on Friday? Did you all take the subway, bus, taxi, or ? to 52nd street? 

P.S. I hope someday I can have a drink with Art.

http://www.benbensons.com/index2.htm

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:35 | 1375090 kito
kito's picture

1987 was the start of the bull market, glad to see you are so optimistic tyler. but i think you are rushing it just a bit.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:32 | 1375097 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

By "Bull Market", are you reffering to the millions of manufacturing jobs we lost to China during that period of time?

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:50 | 1375160 kito
kito's picture

talking strictly stock index numbers, not trying to get philosophical

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:54 | 1375169 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

stock index numbers meaningless in real terms.

Greenspan slit the curreny's throat during this time.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:20 | 1375243 kito
kito's picture

well if they are meaningless on the way up, surely they would be meaningless on the way down. and if that were the case, why such attention to it?

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 23:00 | 1376568 unununium
unununium's picture

Funny man, you make me wanna roll my IRA over to you at Edward Jones so you can fix my asset allocation for me.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:43 | 1375122 gerd
gerd's picture

try again dum dum.  bull started in early 80s.

didn't really get going until we were able to fashion GDP out of debt.  Can't do that anymore and that's the difference.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:44 | 1375136 kito
kito's picture

if you spelled "dumb dumb" correctly you might have some credibility

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:50 | 1375144 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No he's right and you're wrong, go buy some Dum Dum suckers and see for yourself.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:08 | 1375214 kito
kito's picture

oh the pops, staple food of all white trash households

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:32 | 1375319 The Profit Prophet
The Profit Prophet's picture

A fool and their money are soon parted....say goodbye to your paper wealth Shill Boy.

T.E.I.N. everyone.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 16:16 | 1375685 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

You may not like it but paper wealth is going to be around for quite a while.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 15:01 | 1375422 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It's what "Kazoo" used to call Fred Flintstone... But since Fred isn't around...

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:00 | 1375176 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Back then we were just starting to lever up as a country. That is no longer an option. We are in debt destruction mode now. The Dow will go to 4000

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 20:39 | 1376296 BoeingSpaceliner797
BoeingSpaceliner797's picture

The bull market to which you are referring is generally considered to have begun in 1982, not 1987.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:42 | 1375098 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

A Lesson from 1987: Who did the traders screw? They screwed each other!  It wasn't the little guy holding the bag, it was the brokerage firms- EFHutton? Drexel-Burnham? Kidder-Peabody? A large swift move lower shakes out the little guys' stops, have we learnt nuthin' from history? There will never be a TARP II, so Jamie & Lloyd better be careful this time.

On the other hand, God Bless Art and his trader's gut, there aren't too many like him around anymore- I'm thinking of Larry Wachtel as another example.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:57 | 1375167 Arius
Arius's picture

so Jamie & Lloyd "better be careful this time."

They got their loot already...did you see their compensation for last year??? they know what is coming...but, hey thanks for the warning...

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:37 | 1375099 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

BULLSHIT, markets only crash when bailout legislation doesn't go through, and then like TARP it's voted on again the next day.

 

THE STOCK MARKET IS TOTAL FUCKING GARBAGE.

 

 

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:40 | 1375111 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Agreed. The markets are now just pure garbage, completely irrelevant to anything real world and stinking.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:59 | 1375173 Arius
Arius's picture

where is hammy when you need him???

any bulls out there?

they need volunteers to hold the bag...

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 15:10 | 1375477 r101958
r101958's picture

Bernank might call it a 'perception tool'.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 15:23 | 1375517 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

When it comes to Bernanke, it's a perception stool.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 13:34 | 1375102 Beatscape
Beatscape's picture

Market breadth yesterday was the worst since 2008.  Advice from a guy with pointy ears: You do not want to be long equities right now.  I am 100% short.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:11 | 1375213 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Likewise. Could be a major change in trend occurring: from Bull (fully rigged) to Bear (need justification for further rigging). If so, a strategic change from BTFD to STFB is in order. Care to compute the probability - based on your cold calculus -  that such a trend change has indeed occurred, Mr. Spock?

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:29 | 1375301 Beatscape
Beatscape's picture

Precisely.  A shift in market momentum does indeed seem to be occurring now.  One indicator that gives us evidence is the slow stochastics of the S&P 500. Every time this oscillator came down to 20, it was a BTFD moment.  But on this swoon, slow stochastics has dropped below 20, which hasn't happened in over 2 years. Further, it has been languishing under 20 since June 3--about 2 weeks, which hasn't occurred since 2008.  This is the start of the decline the bears have been looking for.

Thu, 06/16/2011 - 14:50 | 1375396 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Well, it feels that way to me as well, but better to leave feelings out of it, right? You express a 100% probability ... astounding! And encouraging, as I've actually been Selling The F'n Bounces since about March, even turned my nose up at some modest profits & am looking forward to getting some $ back at this point. At this point, I'm at least 100% certain this dip is of a higher degree than the last few. Thanks for the slo stoch numbers that confirm that feeling.

BTW, I used to do the Mr. Spock schtick back in the dot.com days on another board, in another galaxy far, far away. Can't believe how time flies, and how many suckers ... I mean "investors" can fall for the same crap time and again. Fear, Greed::Rinse, Repeat

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