Athens Exchange Posts Craigslist Ad ISO "Market Surveillance System", Launches New Greek Bank Futures

Though the Greek push-of-war between the ECB and IMF has been postponed until Wednesday, a new FTSE/ATHEX-CSE Banking index futures contract begins trading on Monday.  With the fiscal future of Greece literally hanging in the balance, what could possibly be more fitting in the interim than the launch of a new futures contract containing the words 'Greek' and 'bank'?  The next meeting to ostensibly overhaul the Greek financial system has been postponed but the new futures contract to trade Greek banks remains on schedule.  Surely I'm not the only one who finds humour in this ~ 'trade these new futures on Monday and we'll figure out the future on Wednesday.'

Start of trading of the new Future on the FTSE/ATHEX-CSE Banking Index

The trading of the new futures on the FTSE/ATHEX-CSE Banking index will start on Monday 19th April.

The index FTSE/ATHEX-CSE Banking started being calculated on 3rd November 2008 and consists of:

• The Greek banks of the Athens Exchange securities market which are constituents of the FTSE/ATHEX 20 and FTSE/ATHEX MID 40.

• The Cypriot banks of the Cyprus Stock Exchange securities market which are constituents of the FTSE/CySE 20.

The new product is based on the long term cooperation of the Athens Exchange (ATHEX) with the Cyprus Stock Exchange (CSE) which was strengthened with success in October 2006 when the start of the operation of the Common Platform of the securities markets of the two exchanges took place.

The launching of the Future on the FTSE/ATHEX-CSE Banking index broadens the choices of the Cypriot, Greek as well as international investment community. Simultaneously market participants are given the opportunity to invest easily and directly to the banking sector or even hedge more effectively and with less cost towards Market Risk of portfolios which consist of stocks of the banking sector.

Well, at least the Athens exchange (ATHEX) didn't compound an already easy joke with the misfortune of an ill-timed press release.  Actually, they did.

Request for Proposals for the procurement of a Market Surveillance System (Software - Services)

ATHEX is requesting proposals to procure a Market Surveillance System (software and relevant services) which is world class and proven, compliant with European and Ιnternational market abuse regulatory framework and guidelines, already installed and currently in operation in other Exchanges, MTFs or Capital Market Supervisory Authorities.

The Market Surveillance System should be reliable, robust, stable, scalable, flexible, adaptable and efficient with the minimum ongoing operational cost for ATHEX.

The proposed system will be adapted to the local needs, integrated seamlessly to ATHEX environment and bundled with high quality supporting and know-how transfer services.

The Market Surveillance System will be used to comply with regulatory requirements regarding the detection and reporting of market abuse practices as well as support the decision making process of ATHEX.

ATHEX invites interested parties that meet the qualifications listed in the Request for Proposal document, to submit proposals regarding their solution and related services by 20/05/2010.

Interested parties may receive copies of the said invitation including all the details, by sending an email at [e-mail].

To recap:

1)  The future of Greece hangs in the balance until Wednesday, when the ECB / IMF Greek slumber party resumes;

2)  New Greek banking index futures begin trading tomorrow; and

3)  The Athens exchange (ATHEX) has posted what amounts to a professional Craigslist ad, in search of a "Market Surveillance System" (that, hopefully, will protect Greek markets from the nefarious due diligence and probabilistic prescience of 'evil short-sellers'). 

Kicking someone when they're down?  Yeah, kinda.  But deservedly so after wading through such pathetically hollow rhetoric out of Greek officials these past few months.  

While watching a baseball game remain scoreless through 18 innings this weekend, it became apparent what Greece, inflation and the New York Mets each have in common ~ not a snowball's chance in hell of moving forward for years to come.

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For the funnymentalists, basic FTSE/ATHEX-CSE Banking Index description, background data, technical data and data dissemination.

http://www.ase.gr/content/gr/announcements/Files/FactSheet%20Mar10%20%28...

http://www.ase.gr/content/en/Indices/Daily/Daily_details.asp?iid=136

http://www.ase.gr/content/en/indices/Composition/Files/136_info.pdf

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For the visually / spatially-oriented, the technical posture of National Bank of Greece (NBG) on the daily, weekly and monthly.

National Bank of Greece (NBG) ~ daily

Having already retraced 76.4% of regained ground as measured from closing low to closing high, NBG sits at a critical technical threshold.  The white line on the chart below is a Dynamic Trailing Stop function (above good, below bad) and the purple & green oscillator in the lower panel (Vol.T Oscillator™) measures derivative ratios of volume and tick; Vol.T and the Elite Oscillator™ (middle panel) are each plotting mildly positive divergences (the depth of troughs have decreased on each successive downleg).  NBG is resting on a make-it-or-break-it inflection point.

National Bank of Greece (NBG) ~ weekly

As price rolled over during the past two weeks, volume exploded.  Sitting upon an outer retracement level (76.4%), NBG is fueling for another large percentage swing.  3.50 - 4.50 is a very, very wide range fueling zone, where price can chop about without meaningful direction.  The exceptionally heavy turnover exhibited over the past two weeks significantly raises the odds of two distinctly opposing scenarios, where either:

1)  weak hands were mopped up by institutional accumulation while critical support above 3.50 held, which would suggest a multi-week, narrowing range basing period on much lower volume (a typical dynamite triangle pattern would take 1.5 - 2.5 weeks to reach inflection) to reset internal measures of volatility and average true range (ATR) before advancing sharply into 5.00;

or

2)  institutional holders punted NBG but their first assault ran out of ammo at critical closing support levels, suggesting a multi-day, reflexive upwards bounce to mark time before the next selling wave attacks 3.50.

If you're looking long:  stalk for consolidation, wait for hourly price patterns to develop, then begin targeting entry / stop levels for possible execution (always pre-define risk tolerance and strive to concern yourself with risk management / stop placement much more than profit targeting).

If you're sizing up to short:  the only prudent play here is to sit on your hands and wait to sniff out the last fumes of a reflexive bounce.  Should support breakdown next week, the perversity of TA implies much greater risk of an upward air pocket developing in the wake of a slide that punctures 3.15 - 2.90.  Unless you are extremely nimble (since option liquidity is almost entirely out of the question), the anticipated risk: reward ratio of shorting into such an initial breakdown would be highly suspect.

Without a triggering move from NBG, there is no reason to stick one's neck out here.  Simply because price action held critical support alongside extraordinary volume, gun to head, I'd rather be long than short here intra-session but would be scared to death to hold an overnight position either way.  Whether you are biased long or short, a position worthy of overnight commitment has yet to develop.  Barring explosive price action early this week, if NBG can simply calm down for a few sessions, it may develop into a nice spec play for nimble swing traders. 

Committing a significant amount of capital to common stock (especially overnight) is a woeful way to speculate when well-constructed options positions can explicitly pre-define capital at risk while also allowing for much greater percentage gains.  Unfortunately for options traders, NBG's chain doesn't have much interest or liquidity.

National Bank of Greece (NBG) ~ monthly

Overlapping retracement targets serve to strengthen support / resistance levels.  NBG exhibits a crude cyclic tendency to trend for about 5 months; 5-month volume rate of change (ROC) at 1,060% is literally off the charts.  Is a multi-month failed new low (FNL) in the works or is a continuation of crashola in the cards ?

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Disclosure: no position in the securities mentioned at the time of publication.  During any given session, we may trade any instrument bi-directionally.

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For similar technical calls and insights into the idiosyncratic machinations of financial markets ~ check out fibozachi.com.

There, you can view detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary indicator packages that we employ daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of financial instruments (stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures, FOREX) across interval periods of time, tick, volume and volatility.

Comments

[nmewn]

Buy the dips...LOL.

[knukles]

Hilarious!
This stuff is better than Monthy Python...

[BlingBlingBen]

Looks like another Paulson and GS scam coming just in time. I guess they need more money to pay their lawyers.

[Orly]

Does everyone have someone like that in the family?  They'll bet on anything?  Anything at all?