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August Mass Layoff Events Drop
Labor series should not be so volatile. Yet they are. The BLS reported Mass Layoff Events for August which dropped by over half, from 3,054 to 1,428, the lowest number recorded so far this year, and almost a thousand below the 12 month rolling average. A comparable move was recorded in the Initial Claimants series, which went from 336k to 125k, well below the 12 month SMA of 249k. This volatility is undoubtedly predicated by the government's intervention in the economy via cash for clunkers. If Edmunds.com is correct about the major swing in August-to-September SAAR, expect to see comparable deterioration in MLEs for the upcoming month.
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Govenment-induced recoveries tend to have that effect.
Unless we see real velocity and credit growth, these "feel good" trends will be transitory.
Of course, we all already knew that, didn't we? :)
I don't know, Tyler. We may see a lot of companies trying to "extend and pretend" throughout September in hopes of a recovery.
Then again, Sept. is the end of a quarter, so firings and layoffs to make earnings are still possible.
Paradox:
Good economic data (or what passes for it among ostrichy straw-graspers) gives the Fed impetus to start withdrawing stimulus. Even if this is in a completely non-meaningful way it is an important signal for the tea-leaf readers. An important part of the dollar carry trade is continued Fed stimulus and loose policy keeping a foot on king dollar's face.
IF...good economic news takes wind out the sails of dollar carry traders who have been propping up equity markets in this latest round...THEN...good economic news should actually be bad for the equity markets.
This fits in with the buy the rumor sell the news framework that often marks interim tops. We'll see I guess.
Good economic news? Oil inventories up? Home sales down (even with the home buyer stimulus still in effect?) New jobless still above 500K? Uh, maybe we are talking about another country.
Man, we've been in this downturn for a year and the job losses keep on coming. "Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 21,000 last week to 530,000".
Terrific! We're only getting a half-million new jobless every month! Jeez....
Isn't this good news? As much as people are bearish these days, we have to remember that real people suffer from bad economic news. Less MLE and lower unemployment claims should be viewed as something POSITIVE for a change around here.
Now, I'm not going to proclaim that less unemployment equates to more jobs, but it's a step in the right direction atleast. Atleast now my neighbor who still has a job doesn't have to sell his house at firesale prices, and we can all continue the Great Ponzi Scheme (aka the U.S. Consumer Economy) for at least another few days, if not weeks.
Flame on.
The economy doesn't need you or any of us plebes anymore. As relates to perpetuating the ponzi, unemployment measures are meaningless.
http://whydoeseverythingsuck.com/2009/09/problem-with-economy-you-arent-needed.html
am i missing something or does this chart contradict ZH? I'm going with ZH but i wonder where the data for this other chart came from, it claims BLS so why doesn't it match ZH?
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-mass-layoffs-total-event...
Good post. going to the source, it appears August was worse than July, and worse than AUgust a year ago.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/mmls.t01.htm
Just looked further, seems the issue is NSA versus SA, not sure why the SA makes such a big difference. I wonder if there is a lag in reporting data.
On a seasonally adjusted basis Mass Layoff Events were up 25% in August. The best that can be said is that they were almost exactly equal to those of August of last year.
Or it could be that the BLS models were not designed to be used during a depression and are all screwed up. For example the birth-death adjustment.
Well the HR depts needed a vacation! Expect
a pickup coming in to bustmas.
My moms uncle was laid off from his job at GM's Moraine Assembly plant in Dayton.
He's never been the same since.
Check the current layoffs data at
www.portalseven.com/layoffs