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August Pending Home Sales Rise 4.3% To 82.3 SAAR, From Downward Revised 78.9
Realtor.org has released the August pending home sales, which increased from a SAAR of 78.9 (of course, downwardly revised from the previous reading), to 82.3 in August, a 4.3% rise on expectations of 2.1%, mostly on a jump in South and West transactions, which increased by 6.7% and 6.4% respectively. And add this to the plethora of data series which consistently see prior numbers revised adversely: July data was revised from a 5.2% increase to 4.5%. NAR chief economist, Larry Yun, once again tried to put some lipstick on the bottom-bouncing pig: “Attractive affordability conditions from very low mortgage interest rates appear to be bringing buyers back to the market. However, the pace of a home sales recovery still depends more on job creation and an accompanying rise in consumer confidence.” And yes, throw one more party praying eagerly each night for QE2.
Although Yun expects a continuing steady rise in home sales from
favorable affordability conditions and some job creation, he cautioned
any sudden rise in mortgage rates could slow the recovery. “Current low
consumer price inflation has helped keep mortgage interest rates very
attractive this year. However, recent rising trends in producer prices
at the intermediate and early stages of production, along with very high
commodity prices, are raising concerns about future inflation and
future mortgage interest rates,” he said. “Higher inflation would mean
higher mortgage interest rates. In the meantime, housing affordability
is hovering near record highs.”
A table of pending home sales through 2010:
Full report of this most irrelevant housing metric.
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POMO day today?
Tuesday.
Feels like a boring day. Blah, meh.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Hmmm back to back POMO this week. That is a bit un-nerving as for an economic week..well it is weak as far as relevant data coming out.
Still down big time y-o-y and last year wasn't exactly a sterling year. Once the title insurance issues and REO problems hit it will be game over all over again. This time with massive consequences not just for the sales side of the equation but also on the financing side as those institutions that financed homes illegally foreclosed upon for resale are going to have to answer for this idiocy also.
why doesn't anyone tell it like it is...
pending homes sales increased simply because it is taking forever to hear back from banks on short sale offers. Hence, the pending home sales number increases month to month as the pipeline clogs with pending sales that will more likely fall apart than actually close..
lol.
"Larry Yun, once again tried to put some lipstick on the bottom-bouncing pig"
Hilarious.
Once again, having lived long in the US and knowing many people who I had told in late 2006... sell now, overvalued you are, I feel sadly vindicated. But no one listened. That was the peak of Home=Piggy bank.
Sad "I told you so" moment for me.
Sell now even. This is a time to rent not own (urban) and own farmland. Even a patch. I'm doing the same here. Selling Bangalore (massively over-valued) and going rural. Cleaner life!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Pending REO sales are a substantial component of this. REO's sales are about to fall off a cliff due to the foreclosure fraud issue. Expect a huge downward revision that will be ignored by the market.
Last numbers I have (July) were 34% of all sales. In some regions, considerably higher, of course.
Real estate is dead.
'Pending home sales' has to be the most made up BS indicator around. And wait until the repo mess hits full steam as no one will offer mortgage insurance because no one really has any idea who owns the mortgage to begin with.
Well, if you revise the previous month's numbers lower, of course you're going to get an increase. These figures are so transparently false, it's amazing they even publish them.
As an aside, I'd like to point out just how important and overwhelming the foreclosure fraud issue is: The MSM is not covering it at all - nothing on the Sunday shows, nothing on the morning shows or even the weekend news - meaning, of course, that it's A HUGE PROBLEM.
Bob Pisani on CNBC briefly mentioned, about 9:35, that the foreclosure stalls could help the real estate market, and he promised "more, after pending home sales at 10:00" but then offered NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH. Did a producer get in his ear and remind him that we're not supposed to talk about the problem that is going to cloud title on millions of properties and eventually bankrupt the nation's six or seven largest banks?
You judge. But, I will tell you one thing, whenever they issue terrorist alerts like the one they're blaring about now, they're trying to cover up something else, and with elections just a month away, the thing they're trying so hard to suppress is the truth about home ownership and legal title in the USA.
It's the end of the bankster fraud and planned all along, though, from a criminal enterprise (those thinking RICO are correct) POV, it was brilliant. Sell homes using OPM as investment to buyers who can't afford them. Corrupt the chain of ownership, then, collect fees and when they default, scoop up the homes in foreclosure and sell them on the open market. Keep the money. Screw the investors and kick homeowners to the curb. It's a LOSE-LOSE-WIN! Homeowners lose, investors lose, banks WIN!
"In the meantime, housing affordability is hovering near record highs" Is that his sick attempt at trying to pump the market? They just dont get it. Affordable for people who can qualify for a gov sanctioned mortgage. In my view they will not be affordable until they are the same price as a new car and you can negotiate financing directly with the seller (builder, owner,etc). Until then house prices are inflated due to gov intervention.
Well, I stand corrected. CNBC just did about five minutes on Docugate (I get credit for the coinage!), with one guy defending the banks, saying that we need to work this out with all due haste. In reality, the courts should exercise all due caution and diligence rather than becoming rubber stamp factories (which, in Florida, they already are). The order of the day should be vacating judgments and sanctions against the bank fraudsters, with criminal investigations (Eric Holder is a POS, BTW).
If there is true justice, people will get free homes and the bankers will get prison terms. I know I'm dreaming, but everybody with half a brain knows the extent of the fraud is not just these recent disclosures, but dating all the way back to mortgage originations and securitizations.
The best part is Angelo Mozilo's trial begins this month. That should put an exclamation point on the whole issue.
I follow the market, not politics. Anyone out there have thoughts on how November elections might affect home sales? Dem vs. Reps?
Not taking sides, I just wnat to understand so I can make the right move to sassify my greedy little heart.
Down. Repubs will promote free market (which will drive prices down). Dems will promote "compasionate foreclosure" (driving prices down).
Difficult to say at this point. Even if Reps control one or both houses, their majorities won't be filibuster or veto proof. Both sides may lock up and wait it out till 2012 elections. Reps could try to force the issue on dissolving Freddie and Fannie via the budget process, but won't want to be seen as having crashed the housing market in the process. Dems may try to ram through tax increase in the lame duck session, which would likey crater the economy, eventually circuling through employment back to home sales. Definitely is not any will for more home buyer tax credits, thank god.
And how many of those pending home sales have a clear title? That is the big question? So let them jack off to the number for while because when it comes down to closing my guess is there will be very few. I know several people that were forced into a short sale offer by their realtor and instantly there was a low ball offer. Now they just sit in the house and wait,and wait,and wait, not paying any mortgage. A few have been waiting almost a year now? But it's a deal right? wrong.. nothing more then a contract written on toliet paper.it's just another way to hide the facts and kick the can a little further down the road... So go ahead a keep your ponzi prop under the foundations, it will not hold for long. In California the train has barely got out of the station, so I hope you upgraded to a more comfortable coach because you're in for a long ride.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-budget-means-lean-times-for-the-state/
Business Weeks is reporting that CitiGroup and Ally are being sued for racketeering over their database use.
Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. and Ally Financial Inc. units were sued by homeowners in Kentucky for allegedly conspiring with Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems Inc. to falsely foreclose on loans.
The lawsuit, filed as a civil-racketeering class action on behalf all Kentucky homeowners facing foreclosure, also names as a defendant Reston, Virginia-based MERS, the company that handles mortgage transfers among member banks. The suit claims that through MERS the banks are foreclosing on homes even when they don’t hold titles to the properties.
“Defendants have filed foreclosures throughout the state of Kentucky and the United States of America knowing that they were not the ‘owners’ or beneficiaries of the loan they filed foreclosure upon,” the homeowners wrote in their complaint filed Sept. 28 in federal court in Louisville, Kentucky.
The homeowners claim the defendants filed or caused to be filed mortgages with forged signatures, filed foreclosure actions months before they acquired any legal interest in the properties and falsely claimed to own notes executed with mortgages.
The lawsuit is one of multiple cases against MERS and banks alleging that the process allows wrongful foreclosures. Several of these cases, combined in a multidistrict litigation in Phoenix, were dismissed Sept. 30, with the judge allowing the plaintiffs to re-file their complaints.
Karmela Lejarde, a spokeswoman for MERS; Mark Rodgers, a spokesman for Citigroup; and Jim Olecki, a spokesman for Ally, didn’t have immediate comments.
full article at:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-04/citigroup-ally-sued-for-rack...
This sort of thing just might slow real estate sales a bit I would think.