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One dollar for whoever has access to the morning memos distributed today at Federal Reserve Capital LLC.
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Update:
-566.00 -624.00
Tick
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TovqogviVU&feature=channel_page
Tock.
I don't know. I must be dreaming. But did Bob McTeer, just say a while ago on CNBC that the FED should raise rates to about 1.5? knock me over with a feather.
According to my calculations, the fed should have rates somewhere at 17.325. In fact I called Bernanke the other day and he said that they will raise rates to 17.2 because the economy is weak still. The rejuvenation area is covered in green shoots, but there are a few holes in the field (that has been destroyed by plague and fire since 2007, as well as several alien encounters) that Goldman is yet to seed.
For the uninitiated, can some explain what TICK is? Some sort of measure of treasuries volume?
The tick measures the net sell/buy ratio of the exchange. Usually the NYSE. So a -624 Tick would mean a net 624 more stocks on the NYSE are being sold than bought at that moment. Most ticks between +600 and -600 are just noise. The bigger ones are noteworthy
Thanks. Clear explanation for us neos.
(Not original poster)
How can anyone sell a share without someone else buying it? Don't the number being sold an the number being purchased *need* to equal one another, by definition?
It would mean the bid got hit instead of the ask...so per my example before, a -624 Tick would mean a net 624 more stocks got the bid hit....ie sold into. Positive ticks are the opposite. buyers pay the ask.
Great explanation, thank you. If 600 to -600 are usually considered noise, what would be considered very high levels?
1200 to -1200?
those would be the extremes yes.
Number of stocks that made an uptick. Can be negative, that means that over the universe of stocks on an exchange (remember TICK is associated with an exchange) more stocks made a downtick; it can also be neutral which can either mean that stocks aren't moving at all - traders are looking at each other - or there's about the same number of stocks that made an uptick vs downtick.
It's useful to look at NYSE and NASDAQ ticks, AD (advancers - decliners) for NYSE and Nasdaq as well as Upvolume - Downvolume for both, as well as sum of upvol and downvol (to judge volume action between days)
Here's my 'internals' screen
http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/1041/internals.png
$Uvol overlayed with $Dvol
$ADVN-$DECN
$TICK
$UVOL-$DVOL
Bottom right chart is mostly usd/cad I have no idea why it's eur/usd
The smaller boxes on the right are time/sales data (this is what people refer to as reading the tape) showing large orders on ES (SP500 futeres) and smaller orders (many times you see them doing opposite things - small guys are essentially providing liquidity to the larger players), I also look at medium size NQ (NDX futures) and YM (DJI futues) next box is core sectors.
hope that helps somewhat.
Because we don't know how to correctly interpret the data does not mean it's useless. And no, I don't mean that we're not capable, I mean that the real information is hidden.We just can not compete with the vast amounts of money being used to influence decisions.
good articles; my newest bookmarked finance website
Tyler,
interesting read if you haven't posted already.
http://www.blacklistednews.com/news-5149-0-13-13--.html
that was me...I always think I'm logged in
Good read. Thanks for the link
That was really good and interesting...
CNN Money headline: "Stocks: The latest Fed bubble"
If CNN/Money is on the case, it's over.
Anyone think this is the turn we're seeing today? I think we might get another bogus spike on "good" retail numbers on Thursday.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/11/news/economy/bubbly.fortune/index.htm?po...
Not yet. Retracement to 0.618 and then back up for the final P2 wave and start of P3.
I agree with the latter, Cash for Clunkers should spike the numbers artificially Thursday. I plan on buying more SDS and SKF Thursday afternoon.
(OP): We think alike.
I think a better indicator is Ben's job. Obama probably will not decide until Oct of reappointing Ben. I would expect that until then money supply will only increase. Big Bens' road show taught us that he does want the job, so I expect him to do whatever it takes to get it..
Let's not discount what Goldman Sachs wants.... They want Ben in the driver's seat as long as possible, unless they have some other GS alum hand-picked to take his place. BB is staying, Barry is a puppet.
Summers is in deeper than Bernanke. WAY deeper.
It looks like we get summers or geitner, so either way we loos. Hopefully the tax issue would keep geitner oout!!
I've been hearing about this bubble as well as the treasury bubble since April. What is the logic for these bursting?
That graph looks like my heartbeat after 5- six inch lines of blow.
It's responsible of you to monitor your snorting like that.
And the significance of the memo is...buy everything to keep the market bubbly?
A very informative comment thread.
Thanks all.
Oh look, the pump has arrived
Tyler,
Despite best efforts was only able to decipher the prologue to the memo...
(Piacere. It is a deep and moving honor to discuss the waste mangement business with all of youze.)
(These are trying times for this thing of ours. Credit markets were saying 'va fa napole'. The Borgata was approaching a stage of crisis...)
(Let us not forget the Code of Silence. Anti-Trust violations aside... Those that go oobatz get pinched.)
(Our capo in his esteemed wisdom gave the crew a taste without excessive vig. There was initally discord on points and even unfortunately a necessary message job for those that had not in the past paid tribute. But that jamook Fuld got his, buon' anima.)
(The shylock business continues.)
(Gentleman, this Golden Age is quickly coming to an end. It is imperative upon us to complete our spring cleaning for it is possible that there might still be , despite many overtures,mannagge with the tizzun. Already the fanook is getting all chiacchierone on the shy. That NY strunz. This is causing much agita I know for there could be predicates. None of us wish to be guests of the state. This is not the time to eat alone.)
(First though, Madonn' I'm hungry ... gabagool?
TICK and BANK have been out of whack from about the time that Sergei Aleynikov was caught. Maybe part of the secret sauce?
can someone explain to me how average tick drops, but market goes up. To me this sounds wrong, and I see manipulation. But I'm not an expert.