his talk today. He said that if his budget were enacted it would result
in the US achieving the lowest debt to GDP ratio since Eisenhower.
That’s quite a claim. I don’t think there is any truth to it. I don’t
believe Obama really believes that is the case either. He's just blowing
political smoke.
The budget that “produces” these great results is actually built on
sand. The assumptions that result in the dramatic improvement the
President is counting on are not going to happen. Therefore we are in
for a disappointment.
The CBO produced a set of slides last week that describe the economic
fundamentals that are behind the magic the President is selling:
The key assumption is that GDP is onward and upward every year for the
next ten. Forget the structural weakness(s) that makes this most
unlikely. Forget that the US has a recession of some form or another
every five years or so. If this completely Goldilocks outcome is the
future then the Prez is right. We have nothing to worry about. The
problem is that this scenario is the least likely outcome.
This graph stinks to me. Somewhere around tomorrow (or the next day)
unemployment is going to plunge according to this. It will fall in just a
year or two from now to a level not seen in history. And it will stay
at that “perfect” level for, well, for ever. Give me a break!
This shows the rate of jobs creation. A hockey stick is what it is
called in finance. And financial guys know whenever someone shows them a
plan like this, you just look the other way on the deal being offered.
Hockey sticks never come true. Those that bank that they will, are
always the losers. In this case that means the public.
Sub 2% inflation. Forever. The lowest rate on the charts. No wonder the
president’s budget looks so “good”. His core assumption is that the
rising cost of government will be tame. If you build a house on this
assumption, your house will fall down.
These final charts look at that phony “Baseline”. Even the CBO admits
that in order to achieve that baseline some big changes must be made. If
we don’t, we end up on that lighter blue line. So what are these pesky
things that are referred to as “certain policies”? The answer is: (I)
All of the Bush tax cuts get reversed. (II) AMT is indexed (major tax
increase on all income over $75,000). (III) Deductibility for all types
of things (mortgage interest, property tax, state income tax) is
eliminated.
These things will not happen. If they did we would have the longest
running recession in history as a result. The budget deficit would be
north of 10% forever if we did that. And the CBO, OMB and the President
all know that.
No wonder the big O was cracking jokes. It’s a good strategy. It gets the audience distracted from the facts.
I think it's all in the first chart. If you keep producing dollars, people will find things to buy and sell, services and goods, to compete for their share of those dollars. If you propose to buy and sell more of the same, then you have inflation. If you introduce new products and services, the money has a reason to move.
One solution is to make people pay for what they used to get for free. Things like analog television versus cable and dvd rentals, dial phones, versus instant text messaging with a handheld. If everyone cancelled their cell phone subsciptions you would have Great Depression 2^.
But as money managers, the government has to make sure it doesn't print money faster than new uses for that money come on line. And there is a great deal of hopium on Wall Street that the poor of the world will soon live as well, as spend as well as Americans do right now.
Problem is the new technologies obviate the need for more stuff. Clothes which last forever, never need washing. Food sources which grow themselves, nuclear energy in self contained containers which provide years of energy. The next step is down not up. Last centuries economy is obsolete, but we still look at the numbers as though they are important.
I dunno why Bruce Krasting wastes his time with this tripe. The budget is a lie. Enough said!
The only part I endorse is the 'lack of inflation'. We -- Americans and the OECD to the large degree -- are poised @ the edge of a massive debt deflation. Except for some deleveraging on the part of individuals and companies with cash flow (and smarts) the overall debt situation is worse than it was before the Crisis began in 2007.
When the dominos start dropping there won't be any Fed to help: the central banks have emptied their arsenals. Nothing left but watch the mad scramble of dumb money trying to escape through a keyhole.
Obfuscation
By
Any
Means
Available
if we wish to lower the unemployment rate we can put people in those fema camps....just an idea.....
"the joke's on us." .... so what the hell are we going to do about it ! roll over & let them continue ! ALEX JONES sure isn't letting anyone steamroll over him ! .......... HE GOT ONE SHOT, 6 MINUTES TODAY ON "THE VIEW", with BARBARA WALTERS & HE STEAMROLLED RIGHT OVER THOSE WOMEN !
"a million iraqis killed by george bush" " take down of building 7 " " tsa with their hands down your pants " "$23 trillion stolen by the Federal Reserve " "banks bankrupting the U.S."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH3lJEUgnZo
deleted
US Government; No action until crisis.
Representatives are boxed in by political norms and real negative growth through massive debt and malinvestment.
The result, a crumbling of America.
A future of debt peonage and war, our political legacy. This is the president's budget. Perhaps budget is the wrong word for what is presented. Expense would be better, in many ways. But who really pays when the unworkable stops working?
----------
The finite capacity for world sovereign debt.
Upon a major default (beyond Iceland) the fiat based bond market will reflect the inability of the political class to maintain real worth (protect fiat currencies). With the only large buyers reduced to those with the power to print. Confidence is lost, the emphasis is how to exit first.
I feel lost confidence in sovereign debt will accelerate much quicker than many think. Each country will be looked at for their ability to pay in terms of having policies in place to protect their currency.
----------
So I guess I will ask the logical question; how do we fund Government when nobody wants to buy our debt? or any sovereign debt for that matter.
Yes, we will have some offsets for trade, but lets look at a situation when our debt is not wanted anymore. We may say that the full faith and credit of the US will back these debts, but we will have stripped away the capacity of tax revenue to keep pace with the effects of debt, in many forms. The question of what's backing the debt is one of negative growth and the inability to pay. The ability to debase the currency is not faith, and the expansion of credit cannot be funded with no way to pay (keep up with expansion).
----------
We hear a lot about, the past is past and we must deal with what we have now. But, this is not true when we bring in the context of debt and forced inflation. It is understood that fiscal and monetary policy and money systems, to be sustainable, are planned. So a correction within normalcy is outside of our current direction, our current plan.
Mark Beck
I know of around 537 peeps that could be sold into slavery...
When your DEBT exceeds REVENUE, and to the extent there is absolutely no way to ever reverse it(like we are now).
We have already reached the point of no return, and anyone that is aware of these facts, should already have lost ALL faith.
I have.How can I not?, do we have to get hit in the head with a BRICK?.
O'Bommy and those who seek re-election have only that goal. As goes the economy or perception thereof, goes the election. That simple.
yes, Mr. O blah blah-whatever you say, it must be true-just like years ago when the debt hit 1 trillion (now 14 trillion and counting) and we were told by our infallible leaders, "don't worry, increasing GDP will take care of it"!
I believe we can officially place the "GAME OVER" logo on O's signature.
I honestly believe, we are better off with a giant asteroid hitting the earth out of orbit than another year with the current corrput gov'ts of the world. I'lll take my chances surviving an ELE asteroid over this fucking joke of a "budget" and the ensuing Nuclear World War that will soon follow.
You aint seen notin yet. Wait till next year when political rhetoric will dominate airways with more secret giveaway promises to any constituent group with more than one voter. 2011 speeches are only meant to provide legitimate quotes for campaign purposes next year when in practice America becomes a brothel again. No need for QEIII ,no meaningful spending cuts for next two years and definitly no banker indictments. Only hope is for another Black Swan to reappear in order to bring us to our common senses
"He who collects taxes makes the rules"
I've been looking at a few such deals recently. Actually there's no end to the delusion of miracle growth among corporate executives.
But, I'm asking. With their balance sheets so solid and so much cash flow, why do they still need to raise cash?
When you get right to the bottom line, the fairy tales turn into a horror show.
Stay away!
The law of physics will apply for the US financial system as well. It has been tried over and over again to turn xyz matter into gold or other valuables. It just doesn't work. As long as the plebs believes your magic, you can pull it off. But last night's Oscar for best documentary went to "Inside Job" and the acceptance speech made a few people very very nervous.
The elite has no idea what is brewing. When it hits, they will try to protect their status quo as they always have but in the end, from Tunis to Cairo, from Tripolis to Beirut, from Berlin to London, from New York to Toronto.. the end for the existing sham is near and the curtain on the longest lasting magic show will come down.
Is it any wonder barry soetero has earned the title liar-in-chief ? The teleprompter has direct feeds from the global elites via WS bankstas and FED Benny Boy.
Obama is a pretty boy who never had to fight for anything. He flashed that smile and made those grades and it all came to him like a moth that found its flame. He won the biggest popularity contest of all, after winning every previous one. He never realized along the way that he'd have to kill people or destroy peoples lives. Its all an intellectual exercise and he just keeps finesses his way from day to day. Shit, I voted for that pansy-assed clown, believing all that drivel, or just hoping that some part of what he was spewing was true. Fool me once...
I like the little CBO logo at the upper left of the charts.
If BO could be you-know-who...what might the C stand for?
Perhaps ca-ca head.
They are attempting to shoot the moon.
If they can convince most that they do not have the Queen of Spades and that they are NOT trying to get all the hearts in the deck then investors and pension funds may buy equities in earnest.
Why not make this kind of statement? Sure it won't happen but odds are that some geopolitical event will happen or be manufactured to blame it on. "Oh everything would have been fine if XXXXXXXXX hadn't happened!"
Ultimately people in the know will see this for the comic tragedy it is, and the naive and brain dead will accept it. These things are not target at the aware, it's meant for the brain dead. "Wow the experts say that and have charts? Man they must be right."
Is "blowing political smoke" the same as lying through your teeth?
I kept that Time Magazine cover of Barak Obama as FDR. It is one my great treasures.
Is this what the USSR did? Is this propaganda? Yes, and Yes; and ultimately alienates the entire citizenry; but it will probably take awhile. Good reportage; but it makes me feel a little queasy !
The difference being that the citizens of the USSR at least knew they were reading lies, and just read between the lines.
transcript of O's remarks today to the Governor's assoc
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/02/28/transcript-of-obamas-remarks-to...
excerpt
So in real speak:
"I get it that the commoners have caught on to the spend and pretend game, and I as the President intend to take it to another level". My plan is to make you think I'm spending less, well in fact I will be spending more". This is nesessary however because if I don't pay off my patrons, I won't get a second term".
Maybe the next President (if there is one) could stop kicking the can down the road?
We really need an adult about now.
Tyler?, Marla?
I know.
It won't happen.
...said the guy who loaded us down with the greatest entitlement scam since, well, since the Iraq War.
Progressives would turn against him on a dime if they didn't have so much vested in collectivism and the notion of The Radiant Future: State Run National Health Care and State Run Bullet Trains to Nowhere.
A wonderful article was highlighted here not too long ago by Matt Taibibi in Rolling Stone. In it Taibibi detailed the unwillingness of politicians in Washington to hold the Banksters responsible for the collapse of Wall Street and the looting of the wealth of the Middle Class through the series of liar's loans and mortgage scams they ran during their Salad Days in the late Clinton and Bush years. Taibibi's problem is that as a lefty reporter, he doesn't want to walk back the cat and ask, well, why isn't the Southern District of New York not prosecuting Banksters? Why is Bernie Madoff they only Bankster wearing orange? Is he a Patsy? Who is Eric Holder's boss, and why haven't we had any racket hearings under Obama?
The answer, of course, is that like Bush, Obama is the Bankster's poodle. Taibibi doesn't want to go there because he is a reliable Man of the Left, and the Left has one rule: There are No Enemies on the Left. The last thing Taibibi wants to do is attack the Democratic Party or its Leader, Obama. That might be dangerous.
Because if it is one thing I have learned from reading ZH and watching these clowns rape the Middle Class; they don't care about principle so much as they do about power and concentrated wealth. Especially, strangely enough, the Left.
Give George Will this much, he pretty much nailed it on the head when he wrote that themodern liberal impulse behind state financed bullet trains and National Health Care reform was to strip individuals of as much liberty as possible and impose as much collectivism as possible.
And it's quite a shame: the Left is trafficking in 20th Century constructs. Everything they believe in is obsolete.
Too bad it will all come tumbling down when the Clock strikes Ponzi.
intrade from Atlanta Journal Const.
Obama 2 to 1 fav to win re-election
http://blogs.ajc.com/jay-bookman-blog/2011/02/28/obama-almost-2-1-favori...
Come on Bud: You really think any of such bets are relevant? Everything has been compressed into short windows now. You (nor I) can predict that far out. So much instability that if you want to predict out more than about 4 hours? Good fucking luck. Although I do call myself generally contrarian in that I believe the bets for Euro are going to crash.
1.36 or lower by Friday.
Anything those racist scumsuckers print is hogwash.
And the lie, their real name is the Atlanta Urinal and Constipation.
The mid-east is just now starting to blow up, and someone is suggesting stability for 10 years?
Let me tell you something. They'got two scenarios out there; one for internal consumption, and the other for press releases. This one is the latter. The one for internal consumption has about 8 kinds of oh shit worked into it, helicopters idling on rooftops, and gold being forklifted into freighters bound for Brazil in the middle of the night.
A politician lying? Can this be?
Okay. Put me down as a paranoid 'outlier' Globalization was formed under Reagan. Enacted under Clinton. The police state came after 9/11. Now the Dollar is getting killed.
How many billions of consumers outside U.S. borders?
Sorry, probably just a coincidence.
No way would a global financial elite target the U.S. as the primary obstacle to world government and complete financial domination.
No way!
ISEEIT
You are describing James Bond or Austin Powers theme.
Obama joking around with bogus charts and assumptions, more like Powers.
Actually, what I am describing is more Tony Robbins.
NLP.
All it didn't account for was the date with destiny.
You can only pretend for so long. And then you can't anymore?
Moral of the story?
If it sounds easy and 'to good to be true'.
It is.
The man is a liar. Plain and simple.
Damn straight he's a BALD faced Bucket mouthed LIAR.
Now Junk me, you chicken shit.
Someone states PURE FACT, and get's junked.
Reading Abraham Lincoln biography and it appears, so was he. Just as big time.
He told so many lies in his first 2 years in office I have to write them down to keep track.
Lost over 700,000 men and another 700,000 wounded or maimed.
THIS, is leadership.
Leadership indeed. Preserve the federal tax base and you'll get a big old Memorial too....and your face on a fiver.
Damn straight.
It's almost impossible that Owebama does NOT go down as the worst President ever.
I dunno. I think he has a lot of work to do before he knocks off W.. He'd have to have another term.
The man is a politician. And yet, many are surprised by this.
I think Obama's actual claim was that his budget eventually reduces non-defense discretionary spending to its lowest level vs. GDP since Ike.
But so what? Obama just jacked up baseline spending to the stratosphere. That's where the real meat and potatoes are. Let's see that ratio.
Obviously he has all kinds of additional things in mind for the government to spend money on and he doesn't want to make any of them discretionary...he wants to bake them into overhead. In fact he's probably re-labeling some discretionary items as entitlements right now. *Poof* lower discretionary spending.
He went to Harvard you know...
BK, Call Rosetta Stone and offer up your services. Your ability to read and hear Bullshit and translate it is second to none. Thanks
You must have faith. Obama is the self appointed Messiah (aren't they all?). Religion requires faith because you must suspend your disbelief.
Perhaps you are mis-spelling his (supposed) name.
Try an "s" instead of a "b".
Denialism is choosing to deny reality as a way to avoid an uncomfortable truth:[1] "[it] is the refusal to accept an empirically verifiable reality. It is an essentially irrational action that withholds validation of a historical experience or event".[2] In science, denialism has been defined as the rejection of basic concepts that are undisputed and well-supported parts of the scientific consensus on a topic in favor of ideas that are both radical and controversial.[3] It has been proposed that the various forms of denialism have the common feature of the rejection of overwhelming evidence and the generation of a controversy through attempts to deny that a consensus exists.[4][5] The terms Holocaust denialism and AIDS denialism have been used,[6][7][8][9][10] and the term climate change denialists has been applied to those who refuse to accept that climate change is occurring.[11][12][13][14] Several motivations for denial have been proposed, including religious beliefs and self-interest, or as a psychological defense mechanism against disturbing ideas.[15][16] The broad use of the word denialism is controversial, as it has been criticized as a polemical method of suppressing non-mainstream views.[17] Similarly, in an essay discussing the general importance of skepticism, Clive James objected to the use of the word denialist to describe climate change skeptics, stating that it "calls up the spectacle of a fanatic denying the Holocaust".[18] Celia Farber has objected to the term AIDS denialists arguing that it is unjustifiable to place this belief on the same moral level with the Nazi crimes against humanity.[19] However, Robert Gallo et al. defended this comparison, stating that AIDS denialism is similar to Holocaust denial as it is a form of pseudoscience that "contradicts an immense body of research".[20]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denialism
Not to say you aren't wrong in this case.....but be careful about what you believe.
Any definition that says 'refusal to accept an empirically verifiable reality' is wrong.
Empiricism itself has flaws.
You can drive a dumptrunk of bullshit through empiricism. Thus just because something is 'empirical' does not mean it is true NOR verified.
It just means it passed the empirical test. Which might have been flawed.
Do NOT accept the output of empiricism as FACT. It definitely has a chance to be wrong.
Region rebuttal- Defense-able truth Truth is completely true all of it. Conclusively proven, positive indicative evidence. Knowledge can be tested- faith can’t There in only one truth. There is no absolute truth if it requires faith. Analyze= reveal complexity. Reason is willing to reject your position when faced with the evidence. Before- religion was the only tentative answer. Belief is not knowledge there just supernatural excuses. Believing is not knowing. We are Not from nothing- spoken incantations of magic. Extraordinary claims needs extraordinary evidence. Bible- what was meant not what they said. Faith is without reason. It breakdown the accuracy and Authority. It pushes the limits of gullibility. No evidence is another word for faith not Subjected to critical thinking.
Never let yourself believe that there are no errors in your perception or that your perspective will not improve if you identify and correct those flaws.