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A Bad Case of Economic Hypochondria?
- Bank of England
- Ben Bernanke
- Ben Bernanke
- Bond
- Brazil
- Brian Wesbury
- China
- Double Dip
- European Central Bank
- Federal Reserve
- Global Economy
- Greece
- Gross Domestic Product
- Housing Market
- India
- Ireland
- Netherlands
- New Normal
- Obama Administration
- Recession
- recovery
- Sovereign Debt
- Testimony
- Unemployment
- White House
- World Trade
Following my latest post on whether the Fed has defused the neutron bomb, a senior pension fund manager sent me a link to AXA Investment Managers' latest weekly comment by Eric Chaney, Deflation may have won a battle, but not the war.
It
is an excellent read which demonstrates why any discussion on the
inflation/deflation debate that doesn't take into account what's going
on outside the US is missing the bigger picture. I quote the following:
Although contemporaneous estimates of output gaps are somewhat elusive, the broad picture is clear: a
growing portion of the global economy is facing inflation risks and the
bulk of developed economies is no longer in the deflation danger zone.
This uneven dynamic distribution matters a lot for investors, who need
to make up their mind about inflation. One key lesson from the past
cycle is that price movements have a larger common component than in
previous times; call it the globalisation factor. Matteo Ciccarelli and
Benoît Mojon estimated that “(inflation rates of) OECD countries have a
common factor that alone accounts for nearly 70% of their variance” (ECB
working paper, October 2005), a finding that is consistent with later
research by Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico (Bank of England working
paper, February 2008). In such a world, the fact that China, India and
Brazil have entered into the inflation risk zone matters more than
Spain, Ireland and Greece being on the brink of deflation.
Mr. Chaney concludes by stating:
In
sum, there is no evidence that deflation has gained much ground during
the summer. For sure, a double dip of the US economy would tick a few
boxes in the deflation camp. Yet the
most likely scenario in our view is that the US has embarked on a slow
growth cycle, the mirror image of the artificially debt-fuelled previous
decade, rather than on a stop-and-go cycle. Once the markets get
a clearer picture of business cycle developments, which may
unfortunately take several months, there are good reasons to believe
that the current deflation buzz will be quickly replaced by its
opposite. In the meantime, enjoy the bond rally!
There are
other encouraging signs suggesting that the global recovery is back on
track. This past week, the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy
Analysis released its World Trade Monitor for June 2010, showing that world trade was up 0.7% month on month after an upwardly revised 2.3% increase in May.
Why
is this significant? Because, as Yanick Desnoyers, Assistant Chief
Economist at the National Bank of Canada discusses below, Global trade volume finally back to its previous peak:
According
to CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the volume of
world trade grew 0.7% in June after an upwardly revised 2.3% gain in
May. This represents the ninth increase in ten months. Global trade
volume is now expanding at a 21.2% growth on twelve month basis, just
shy of the 23% peak registered in May. In the second quarter as a whole,
global volume trade was up a significant 15.3%. As today’s hot chart
shows (click on char above), it took only about a year for world trade
volume to virtually get back to its previous peak.On
the global industrial output side, the index is already in an expansion
mode with a 0.7% gain above its previous peak, despite the fact that IP
is still down 10% in advanced economies. After all, it seems
that fears of sovereign debt contagion from the Euro zone earlier in the
spring did not have a material impact on global trade volume. Despite
an upcoming slowdown in the U.S., we are still forecasting an above 4%
global GDP growth in 2010.
What this tells you is that
this cycle is different than previous cycles because the emerging
economies are the source of growth. Too many analysts are focused solely
on what is going on in the US and other developed economies. I too had
written about Galton's fallacy and the myth of decoupling, but maybe this view needs to be revisited.
And
even in the US, I tend to think there is way too much gloom & doom,
a point underscored by Ross DeVol, executive director of economic
research at the Milken Institute, who wrote an op-ed in the WSJ this
past week, The Case for Economic Optimism:
Gloom
and doom is the hallmark of the current economic debate, as the most
recent congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke demonstrates. Despite Mr. Bernanke's generally upbeat message
on the Fed's official forecast, which calls for moderate economic
growth of somewhere between 3.0% to 3.5% this year, the market and the
media fixated on his acknowledgment that the outlook was "unusually
uncertain." Those words have only reverberated in the past few weeks,
bolstering economic pessimists.
There's
a point at which pessimism becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy, scaring
businesses away from investing or hiring. The dark tone of today's
discourse is at risk of doing just that.
The Milken Institute's new study, "From Recession to Recovery: Analyzing America's Return to Growth"
is based on extensive and dispassionate econometric analysis. It
concludes that the U.S. economy remains more flexible and resilient—and
has more underlying momentum—than is generally acknowledged. In fact,
our projections show cause for measured optimism: A return to modest
but sustainable growth is close at hand.
America's
businesses are capable of navigating around policy uncertainty and the
twists and turns of a volatile global economy. While slow
private-sector job growth is to be expected in the early stages of a
recovery, the U.S. should add 1.5 million jobs in 2010, 3.1 million in
2011, and 2.6 million in 2012. That will translate into real GDP growth
of 3.3% in 2010, 3.7% in 2011, and 3.8% in 2012.
In this
pessimistic climate, this forecast will likely be considered
contrarian. So why is our economic outlook more sanguine than the
current consensus? For one, robust (albeit moderating) economic growth
in developing countries, particularly in Asia, will provide support for
U.S. exports. Look no further than Caterpillar, which reported a
doubling of its earnings in the second quarter of 2010 and whose
product line is sold out for the rest of the year.
Improved
business confidence is already spurring strong investment in equipment
and software. Record-low U.S. long-term interest rates are supporting
the recovery. And the benign inflationary environment allows the Fed to
keep short-term interest rates near zero until late this year, or even
into 2011 if it desires.
Historical context offers further
reason to expect a rebound. The peak-to-trough decline in real GDP
during this recession was 4.1%, making it the most severe downturn
since World War II. But throughout the postwar period, the rate of
economic recovery from past recessions has been proportional to the
depth of the decline experienced. While this relationship has been
somewhat variable, it is well-established. Our projections for GDP
growth are above consensus but are substantially below a normal rate of
recovery after a recession of this severity.
The
naysayers are right that there's a "new normal" economy, but it's not
that the potential long-term growth rate of the U.S. is substantially
diminished, as they say. It's that this time, the fulfillment of
pent-up demand will be subdued because consumers were living so far
above their means during the bubble years. Nevertheless, consumer
durables and business investment in equipment will see some previously
postponed purchases finally happen—if not this year, certainly by 2011
and 2012.
What needs to happen on the policy front in order to build momentum?
In
the first place, small businesses need access to more bank credit to
create jobs. Banks feel conflicted by calls from the Obama
administration to increase lending while regulators are instructing them
to add to their reserves. Regulators need to be reminded that some
risk is necessary in a market economy.
The White House also
should press Congress to pass legislation modernizing Cold War–era
restrictions on exports of technology products and services that are
already commercially available from our allies. This would boost U.S.
exports and reduce the deficit. And if the White House is serious about
doubling exports by 2015, it needs to push trade deals with South
Korea, Colombia and Costa Rica through Congress.
For its part,
Congress must move immediately to restore the lapsed R&D tax
credit. Even better, it should expand the credit and make it permanent.Congress also should pass legislation to temporarily extend the
Bush tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of this year. It's
important not to remove any economic stimulus as long as the
sustainability of the recovery is in question.Another must-do:
by 2012, Congress needs a credible long-term plan in place to reduce
the deficit. If it doesn't, international financial markets might force
our hand by demanding a higher rate of return on U.S. Treasurys.
Washington
has to focus like a laser on helping businesses create jobs, while the
rest of us should avoid talking ourselves out of a recovery by
dwelling on the doom and gloom. The U.S. economy has already adapted to
serious imbalances in record time: There's ample reason to believe in
its dynamism in the months and years ahead.
While US consumers were living beyond their means, they're paying down
debts fast. The amount consumers owed on their credit cards in this
year's second quarter dropped to the lowest level in more than eight years as cardholders continued to pay off balances in the uncertain economy.
Moreover, the FT reports that US credit-card losses are falling faster than expected,
with the six largest card issuers expected to earn nearly $10bn more
in the coming 12 months than predicted, says a study by Moody's:
Historically, US credit-card write-offs have tracked the unemployment rate.
But for the first time in a decade, loans considered uncollectible by
lenders are falling faster than the jobless rate, prompting analysts to
revise earnings models.
The divergence from past experience reflects bank efforts to weed out risky borrowers, moves by consumers to pare back debts after the excesses of the past decade and new credit card rules intended to discourage reckless lending.
“We
are getting back to an old-fashioned basis of lending, providing
credit only to people who have the ability to repay,” said Curt
Beaudouin, an analyst at Moody’s.
Finally,
while everyone is focused on weakness in the job and housing market,
listen to Brian Wesbury of First Trust Advisors below who thinks the US
economy is fine and that the country's just suffering from a case of
what he calls "economic hypochondria."
Wesbury blames stimulus for delaying the recovery, which is arguable,
and his assertion that the economy is "fine" is ridiculous, but I think
he's right on upward pressure on growth, expecting the economy to
accelerate over the next year.
»
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It is remarkable to note from your comment and from your previous column that even Krugman now recognizes that we are in deep trouble and that the alternatives are few.
Yea...but Leo....
We're gonna need a lot of rope.....
...or a few guillotines with efficient staffs
Settle it with a trade. This is zerohedge, after all. Leo buys, Mr Anonymous shorts. Think I know who will be up on their account come the end of October.
I think that Leo's stance on this one ignores so many fault-lines in the basic system that it really just amounts to fluff. Numbers don't lie, but interpretations do, and this one is badly off. Credit? Who wants it anymore, after having your bunghole frequently "serviced" by the lending institutions? Whether their balance sheets are ruined or not (and they still are), the demand is gone. I own a small business, and the only credit that I will tolerate is with my purveyors, who I know on a personal basis...more of a, "Hey, let me take this pallet of fertilizer out of here now, and I'll pay you for it within two to four weeks." No hassle, no paperwork, just trust between me and someone I've known for almost thirty years. Very simple. Further, the bright spot in Americans paying down their credit cards at a stabilizing pace is only coming at the cost of more and more impending mortgage defaults. I think people are desperate to escape the credit conundrum that's fueled our growth for the last three decades, so...where exactly do we go from here? Should everyone who defaults then go ahead and move to these "emerging economies," since they ostensibly offer the most room for growth? Sorry, Leo, but I'm neither an investor nor able to pack up and jump ship, and this half-rosy coating that you're putting on the turd isn't selling over here.
By the way...emerging economies as the source of growth will do nothing for propserity as a whole, since they're basically aspiring to our rather disgusting standard of largess and wealth. If we fucked up, then what sort of goal is that?
This statement alone nullifies Leo's entire "article" (regurgitation of "facts" from impeachable sources). Until I read this statement I was on the fence about how to respond. Stating my view about Leo's article ran from a mild rage to a near total resignation. Thanks to Hang The Fed I have reached an equilibrium. Thank you, sir.
Cheers to you, then, buddy, although I wish it were more of a celebration than last-call on a shitty night. The only fundamental issue that I ever have with ZH comment sections is that they sort of get lost in technical points that really didn't exist until some fuckwad dreamed them up as a way to add more middle-man positions where they weren't needed in the first place. Once you step outside and look at the sociological implications, you realize that our rather gross behavior has skewed the idea of prosperity into something that's ultimately just a big circle-jerk. Is that our legacy? Good god, I hope not.
There is a store which I pre-order goods that are made in china to be imported to the United States on a schedule or ETA delivery. At that time the Store expect me to be present with payment in full at delivery so that the store can pay the invoice.
I have failed to support China as much this year and are turning more to Domestic sources for the same items and might wait a while for it to be made and delivered. But it will put USA to work and keep the money here.
Bravo Mr. Anonymous!
I appreciate your authenticity and speaking your truth. Our American brothers and sisters are shedding their blood around the world fighting in wars that our inept global elite have either directly or indirectly caused. They can't get along with each other. Why should we expect them to get along with other nations and leaders? Especially ones that have a different world view or religion? It's not gonna happen until real authentic Americans stand up in great enough numbers and do what is necessary to right this ship.
"If ever a time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in Government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." Samuel Adams, 1776
This ain't fucking patty-cake! People are getting killed and maimed for life.
All because of the mental midgets we have allowed to manage our affairs because we were too busy and disinterested in public affairs.
When this house of cards finally collapses, then we will have the real change that we all want and need.
People will not change their belief systems until they no longer work. Well, the wheels are coming off the wagon. The coming financial, economic and government train-wreck is going to be way too big to be swept under the rug.
We need people to be real and honest. This is life and death. I come from a long line of family members who have shed their blood for this nation.
If you are offended by profanity or cuss words, get over it. This site from my experience has always let everyone, including its authors, let er rip when necessary or they feel like it.
It's called freedom. That's why I love Zerohedge.com, its the home of honest and cutting edge discussions on the most critical issues we are facing as a race.
Telling someone they are not or should not speak a certain way? Asinine, words only have the meaning you give them. Get over it.
"You must be who you are, what you should be is not important."
The whole of education (formal, as well as mom's knee) is directed toward moving us away from the baser exhibitions of who we are to the finer civilities of who we should be. That is what civilization means. As opposed to savages.
What you should be is all we have to hold us together as a society (even if it is only you should be protesting now). Don't throw it away.
Yes, and when generations of civility have led to your children being lined up for slavery and failure or worse you need to be uncivilized to bring back civilization.
Tyranny and oppression are not ended with polite conversations over tea.
exactly. however a little optimistic cheerleading and a very serious leaflet campaign might be worth a try ;)
I did enjoy reading all the responses, but I drank a lot tonight. Good night my little lambs, sleep tight, the sun will shine tomorrow, I promise. :)
Duplicate. Apologies.
Kool-aide? Seems refreshing but it is poison.
This leaves the impression that you are on some kind of power trip. How are we your "lambs?" To the slaughter? And we are "little," does that make you big?
I do not think you are entirely forthright, could be you are lying to yourself, more than us though.
Sorry, but after reading comments that kept repeating "GO FUCK YOURSELF LEO!", I had enough. I am not delusional, nor do I minimize the plight of millions of unemployed, but let's get a grip here folks. You're all way too bearish and I think it's equally irresponsible to be so bearish as it is to be too bullish.
And we'd be interested in real arguments supporting your thesis, not conclusory statements. Driver, please: just name it. Oh, and I mean for the U.S. economy - sorry if I am parochial about where I live, but galloping global trade does not at this point include the US. And that means there is no recovery in sight. A rising global tide may lift smaller boats, but not the U.S.S Behemoth.
Why? The hyperbole is so much more easy to sell to the uninformed and uneducated pensioners.
Listen you fool, I do not work at any pension fund. I was fired from pension funds for sounding the alarm. I am not shilling or pumping, but the gloom & doom on this site is overkill. PERIOD.
Thank god for that!
I'm aware that you don't work for a pension fund. You're just their stooge. I've got it.
As far as you being fired for 'sounding the alarm', I'm sure that's something you can state but not prove. Ironically, that premise is completely contrary to the relentless pollyanna spin jobs you post. But, whatever Leo.
...and you are self interested in keeping a cushy job skimming peoples pensions and perpetuating the sham.
I just wonder what your thoughts would be *IF* you were a terminally laid off Chrysler Engineer or some blue collar schlep or, god forbid, actually at the mercy of other "Leos" gambling your pension away.
Yep, and the beauty of it is that there will be millions that will get to see it without the taint of drapes in the morning. It'll be a lovely sunrise from under the overpass or in their tent cities.
Lovely, Leo...lovely. Did tinkerbell help you write that?
Utter drivel. The whole reason banks aren't lending is because there's still too much risk on their balance sheets. Nothing. Has. Changed.
Of equal importance, borrowers don't see any reason to go deeper into hock. The banks like to promote the story that the regulators won't let them lend, as if there are teeming masses of borrowers yearning to go deeper into debt. This is a cover story, and complete merde.
When your product is not in demand, Posturing 1010 says pretend like it's because you don't want to sell it.
Speaking of hock, I bought a HDMI Flat panel tv out of a pawn shop for 200 dollars cash plus the manual, all the cables and everything intact. The thing was bought less than 16 hours ago (Previous day) by someone who paid about 800 to 1000 dollars retail for it and now needs the money bad.
It will be the one time I saved money on anything that we dont use as much due to the increasing media ... dis-information and soothing messages to all saying all is well not to worry.
Yah right.
History shows that Pawn Shops provided Credit when no one else will. At vastly deflated amounts versus Retail Pricing at the walmart down the street.
Tip toe
Through the tulips
With Leo.
....serenity now...serenity now....
America's businesses are capable of navigating around policy uncertainty and the twists and turns of a volatile global economy. While slow private-sector job growth is to be expected in the early stages of a recovery, the U.S. should add 1.5 million jobs in 2010, 3.1 million in 2011, and 2.6 million in 2012. That will translate into real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2010, 3.7% in 2011, and 3.8% in 2012.
Yes the Bankruptcy, debt collection and liquidation sectors are just fucking humming.
In this pessimistic climate, this forecast will likely be considered contrarian. So why is our economic outlook more sanguine than the current consensus? For one, robust (albeit moderating) economic growth in developing countries, particularly in Asia, will provide support for U.S. exports. Look no further than Caterpillar,(That's all the further you can look) which reported a doubling of its earnings in the second quarter of 2010 and whose product line is sold out for the rest of the year.
Yes here is another terrific example of exporting to China for copying purposes. Won't Cat Shareholders be surprised when they see Cherry Heavy equipment at 20% of the price they charge that looks exactly what they exported two months ago coming in by return boat. . Honestly does it hurt when you guys think?
Improved business confidence is already spurring strong investment in equipment and software. Record-low U.S. long-term interest rates are supporting the recovery. And the benign inflationary environment allows the Fed to keep short-term interest rates near zero until late this year, or even into 2011 if it desires.
Yeah oh boy, I call colleagues with small businesses and for some reason, I'm never surprised by a sudden gunshot and the line going dead. "Hey man are you. uh.." Yeah we're pretty fucking confident we won't have to worry about rent and payroll for too much longer.
Gloom and doom is the hallmark of the current economic debate, as the most recent congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke demonstrates. Despite Mr. Bernanke's generally upbeat message on the Fed's official forecast, which calls for moderate economic growth of somewhere between 3.0% to 3.5% this year, the market and the media fixated on his acknowledgment that the outlook was "unusually uncertain." Those words have only reverberated in the past few weeks, bolstering economic pessimists.
I think your a bit off here here. It's more the empty cash registers and checking account combined with the only phone calls being from creditors wanting money today that brings on this feeling of not what I would call pessimism. That's a bit too optimistic for my tastes. I would sort of call it suicidal or homicidal psychopathic anger (depending on one's short term goals) and abject despair over one disaster after another like a 200 car pile up on a foggy free way. Just stop motherfuckers. . But then again I ain't no shrink. Mine shot himself. Couldn't take listening to it any more. Even $250 an hour can only take you so far especially when your patients are bouncing checks.
I can see why Milken , the first guy who earned 600 Million in one year and actaully went to jail for a short time, would be optimistic regardless of which buildings were falling to the ground . I can also understand the optimism that some would have working in a cushy think tank who make all these predictions that have no basis in the reality outside of their bubble that they block off everyday in shade drawn offices, with fine art paintings adorning the wall before they boot up their new iPads to write about what ails us. You ain't hungry asshole. It's just a state of mind. No quit your complaining, Take that $7.00 an hour a job and learn tio love living in shipping containers...oh wait, that's the Nanny calling...
Historical context of what, the depression? You people must be higher than a kite on a bright and windy day with this peak-to-tough nonsense. Tell you what, see if you can locate some section 8 housing right now even though millions of homes remain unsold. Yeah I know you don't need it, but, you know to get those pesky relatives off the phone who keep begging you for $5.00 for their goof ball kid's medications. WTF were they thinking having kids 10 years ago anyway? Fuck em.
Uh, maybe you all missed it but we have had two years of policy that hasn't even nudged the needle. In fact the needle bent and looks like my middle finger extended as it as it heads the other way
Yeah, that's exactly what we need. More payments when there are no customers because you know? You just can't get enough of those account payable calls everyday . Regulators need to be reminded to call the fucking cops on these motherfuckers. Setting the scales of justice back up is the first step in recovery. Then people won't wake up worried and slip into homicidal rages when they think of their congresspeople fellating the bagmen of K street to keep their clients out of jail.
The White House also should press Congress to pass legislation modernizing Cold War–era restrictions on exports of technology products and services that are already commercially available from our allies. This would boost U.S. exports and reduce the deficit. And if the White House is serious about doubling exports by 2015, it needs to push trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Costa Rica through Congress.
Why would they need that. We already send full products of a high tech nature to China for that extra 5% pop on EPS. They know more about our shit than we do. They are selling the hell out of it. The main problem is they cut us out of the sales loop.
Listen douche bag, no one here does R&D unless it has iPhone type potential. That's a catch all expense category where all the executive extras are shoved and reclassified as urgent as required research and development. Sure give them big fucking credits. That'll take down the average corporate taxes paid from 5% to huge loss carryovers as far as the eye can see , widening the deficit to more money than legitimately exists in the known free world.
Focus? Hocus Pocus like Focus? Yeah, look what they did for the banking industry. Now if they can only figure out how to get those trillions to the rest of us. Damn straight, so what if people haven't seen a paycheck in three years? So what is they are in their 50s and don't have health coverage? So what if they have nagging case of cancer that hasn't been checked in a year or more? So what if they are young and owe more than a McMansion on a education that isn't good for a fry cook job. Yeah. They should just forget that shit and smile motherfucker. A new day is dawning and after all, that's just a state of mind if your in DC or on Wall Street.
Over capacity is overcapacity. What we need is some good ol fashioned failures of big business without the aid of the government prosthetic balance sheet they carry around and show analysts. "See we grew assets out of nothing". That would make for some super fine liquidations so small business can pick up the pieces and lay the foundation down for a new economic engine that doesn't need think tanks and their overpaid over educated well fed assholes castigating us for not thinking the right way.
@Dburn
Your last paragraph should be chiseled on a stone tablet and placed at the entrance of the Capital building.
+1000
or at least stamped at the top of this website for all the see ye who enter..
well done Dburn.. i think everyone should circulate this retort as far as possible
Actually it will be placed in front of the new underground visitor's center that I understand was just built or is being completed. Never to see light of day.
Is the rest of your comment archive this good? I think I'll go see...
THE ECONOFOOLS
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/08/econofools.html
Trish Reagan, CNBC personaltitty, opined a similar sentiment this week when she grilled her 8-box panel with the question:
"Are we talking ourselves into a double-dip recession?"
There is a nonzero probability that the original poster is simply perpetuating a meme originating from "up-high".
WW4. psychologists versus physicists.
All the fuck kanuckles have to do, is the math and a course on "Capital as Money - 101"
LOL, now Leo thinks he's a faith healer.
Yep, the little Choo-Choo that could.
...I think I can, I think I can, I think I can....
Brian Westbury.. That guy was a frequent guest on Larry Krudlow all through the 2007 and 2008 time period. That guy always argued back then that there would not be a recession and was bullish the market just about the entire time.
His tune has not changed.. if anyone has a memory loss issue it is Brian Westbury himself for I think he has completely lost his mind.
The way this works is that permabulls are always forgiven their sins, bears are lambasted as their predictions prove true. Forget bull or bear, be a realist. As for the those above who bemoan missing the March 2009 surge up as a result of following "ZH bearishness", the story is not yet finished. Be patient, as Ben says. You'll get another chance, only this time the ride back up will long and painfully slow, measured in decades, not months.
This site hurts my head!!! I'm gonna go get a drink--
Well Leo, put your money where your mouth is - and then Godspeed! You will need it!!
Federal deficit spending is over 10% of GDP, for years to come, and Leo dares speak of 3%-4% "growth" as though it actually has some basis in the real economy. They must be growing some strong shit up there in Canada.
One problem is, China, India and Brazil cannot stand on their own, on internal consumption only. If we go, China and India go. If China goes, Brazil goes.
"The amount consumers owed on their credit cards in this year's second quarter dropped to the lowest level in more than eight years as cardholders continued to pay off balances in the uncertain economy."
And credit card defaults have done *what* in the face of this? Are they materially better than they were a year ago? Two years ago?
what do you mean 'they go?' Go where? They aren't in debt.. so their GDP drops, who cares? They have that rainy day 'fuck you' money...
In all fairness, I've been to B, I, and C (no Russia yet) and they are festering shit holes of humanity.
If that's 'winning'...well....
Leo's Pension Pulse articles blow chunks
if Leo invested in Gold conduit China solar panels... then would you all be his friend?
Leo can buy some friends out of the profits he made on Chinese solars.